Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.00 33.00 0.16 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 35.10 28.40 0.06 0.00 0.0 1 3 37.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 37.40 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 39.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 28.90 24.80 0.27 0.00 0.0 1 8 41.00 28.00 0.71 0.00 0.0 1 9 43.00 35.60 0.95 0.45 0.5 1 10 43.00 33.00 0.82 0.39 0.8 1 11 35.60 30.90 0.01 0.00 0.8 1 12 36.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 13 30.90 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 14 34.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 15 36.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 16 37.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 17 52.00 26.10 1.13 3.19 4.0 1 18 55.90 46.00 0.62 9.95 14.0 1 19 52.00 37.90 0.01 4.58 18.6 1 20 51.80 37.00 0.13 4.31 22.9 1 21 49.00 36.00 0.27 2.87 25.8 1 22 51.80 35.60 0.05 4.07 29.8 1 23 53.60 30.00 0.00 4.16 34.0 1 24 48.20 26.60 0.00 1.83 35.8 1 25 46.90 37.40 0.00 2.13 37.9 1 26 52.00 33.00 0.00 3.81 41.8 1 27 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.84 42.6 1 28 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 44.0 1 29 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 46.3 1 30 47.00 39.00 0.00 2.44 48.7 1 31 48.20 33.10 0.03 2.23 50.9 2 1 43.00 33.10 0.00 0.39 51.3 2 2 48.20 33.10 0.15 2.23 53.6 2 3 49.00 30.00 0.99 2.31 55.9 2 4 52.00 46.00 1.92 8.00 63.9 2 5 48.20 37.00 1.85 2.66 66.5 2 6 43.00 35.60 0.41 0.45 67.0 2 7 40.00 35.00 0.33 0.00 67.0 2 8 48.00 39.00 1.63 2.91 69.9 2 9 61.00 44.60 0.31 11.80 81.7 2 10 50.00 42.80 0.16 5.40 87.1 2 11 52.00 33.10 0.00 3.82 90.9 2 12 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 93.5 2 13 57.20 28.40 0.00 5.52 99.0 2 14 52.00 28.40 0.06 3.36 102.4 2 15 57.20 44.60 2.12 9.90 112.3 2 16 55.90 46.00 0.42 9.95 122.2 2 17 55.90 39.00 0.12 6.75 129.0 2 18 54.00 42.80 0.51 7.40 136.4 2 19 51.10 39.00 0.56 4.40 140.8 2 20 52.00 42.80 1.08 6.40 147.2 2 21 46.40 39.20 0.44 2.19 149.4 2 22 45.00 33.80 0.16 1.06 150.4 2 23 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 151.3 2 24 41.00 32.00 0.03 0.00 151.3 2 25 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 153.3 2 26 44.10 35.60 0.23 0.83 154.1 2 27 45.00 35.10 0.08 1.13 155.2 2 28 50.00 37.00 0.11 3.47 158.7 3 1 52.00 37.00 0.01 4.40 163.1 3 2 50.00 33.80 0.03 3.04 166.2 3 3 51.80 42.80 0.47 6.30 172.5 3 4 46.90 35.60 0.19 1.93 174.4 3 5 44.60 33.80 0.50 0.92 175.3 3 6 45.00 33.10 0.35 1.02 176.3 3 7 48.90 39.20 0.73 3.39 179.7 3 8 51.80 44.10 0.19 6.95 186.6 3 9 57.90 51.10 0.33 13.50 200.1 3 10 62.10 44.60 0.01 12.35 212.5 3 11 57.90 39.90 0.21 8.02 220.5 3 12 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 234.0 3 13 57.90 51.10 0.15 13.50 247.5 3 14 59.00 53.60 1.02 15.30 262.8 3 15 55.90 46.00 0.67 9.95 272.8 3 16 55.90 35.10 0.00 5.88 278.6 3 17 55.90 35.60 0.17 5.97 284.6 3 18 57.90 39.00 0.41 7.73 292.3 3 19 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 298.3 3 20 50.00 39.20 0.23 3.92 302.2 3 21 64.40 45.00 0.11 13.70 315.9 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.01 8.10 324.0 3 23 57.20 35.10 0.59 6.48 330.5 3 24 55.40 43.00 0.43 8.20 338.7 3 25 54.00 42.80 0.02 7.40 346.1 3 26 53.60 42.80 0.56 7.20 353.3 3 27 55.90 44.10 0.04 9.00 362.3 3 28 61.00 46.00 0.12 12.50 374.8 3 29 55.90 46.00 0.16 9.95 384.8 3 30 57.20 37.90 0.21 7.09 391.8 3 31 57.90 34.00 0.00 6.61 398.5 4 1 61.00 42.80 0.00 10.90 409.4 4 2 59.00 39.00 0.00 8.27 417.6 4 3 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 422.8 4 4 59.10 38.70 0.00 8.23 431.0 Hx Hn 4 5 61.00 46.00 0.04 12.50 443.5 4 6 66.20 46.40 0.18 15.30 458.8 4 7 55.90 42.10 0.16 8.00 466.8 4 8 53.10 39.00 0.25 5.37 472.2 4 9 57.90 35.60 0.18 6.91 479.1 4 10 55.90 39.90 0.02 7.02 486.1 4 11 54.00 37.00 0.36 5.34 491.5 4 12 62.60 44.10 0.10 12.35 503.8 4 13 54.00 42.80 0.10 7.40 511.2 4 14 55.40 41.00 0.05 7.20 518.4 4 15 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 526.3 4 16 64.90 39.00 0.16 11.19 537.5 4 17 60.80 46.00 0.42 12.40 549.9 4 18 64.40 48.00 0.02 15.20 565.1 4 19 59.00 46.40 0.38 11.70 576.8 4 20 61.00 41.00 0.08 10.00 586.8 4 21 69.80 35.60 0.00 12.63 599.5 4 22 64.00 46.40 0.11 14.20 613.7 4 23 55.90 46.40 0.53 10.15 623.8 4 24 57.90 44.60 0.26 10.25 634.1 4 25 59.00 44.60 1.59 10.80 644.9
DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 645QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 31 days behind 2015 ok
 3 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KSLE data
  4 26  53.80 42.00  0.34   6.90    651.8  0.344_0.61%_precip.    
  4 27  49.70 33.70  0.26   2.91    654.7  0.257_0.00%_precip.    
  4 28  55.90 33.60  0.00   5.63    660.3  0.00_0.78%_precip.    
  4 29  60.00 31.00  0.05   7.09    667.4  0.048_1.72%_precip.    
  4 30  53.40 36.10  0.09   4.89    672.3  0.092_0.33%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KSLE 2006-2015
  5  1  63.20 39.10  0.01  10.38    682.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5  2  66.30 41.30  0.08  12.80    695.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5  3  64.60 43.30  0.13  12.95    708.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5  4  64.00 42.20  0.09  12.10    720.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5  5  65.10 41.60  0.11  12.35    732.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  6  64.20 42.90  0.04  12.55    745.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5  7  64.20 43.20  0.06  12.70    758.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5  8  66.20 42.30  0.05  13.25    771.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5  9  65.90 42.50  0.07  13.20    784.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 10  67.50 41.90  0.03  13.70    798.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 11  67.90 43.10  0.01  14.50    812.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 12  65.70 43.40  0.07  13.55    826.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 13  65.40 43.40  0.03  13.40    839.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 14  69.10 44.00  0.04  15.55    855.3  *hist_fcst*   peak pheromone trap catch
  5 15  74.20 46.10  0.01  19.15    874.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 16  74.30 47.60  0.03  19.95    894.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 17  73.80 48.00  0.02  19.90    914.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 18  73.80 48.40  0.06  20.10    934.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 19  71.60 47.50  0.06  18.55    952.9  *hist_fcst*   peak female adult emergence
  5 20  67.70 46.80  0.07  16.25    969.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 21  66.80 46.50  0.10  15.65    984.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 22  64.40 46.40  0.20  14.40    999.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 23  63.10 46.30  0.11  13.70   1012.9  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  5 24  63.50 47.00  0.12  14.25   1027.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  67.00 47.30  0.08  16.15   1043.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  67.30 47.00  0.14  16.15   1059.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.40 48.30  0.09  15.85   1075.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  65.30 47.90  0.11  15.60   1090.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  67.00 47.50  0.06  16.25   1107.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  71.00 48.10  0.00  18.55   1125.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  75.00 48.70  0.07  20.85   1146.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  74.30 50.00  0.09  21.15   1167.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.90 50.90  0.12  19.90   1187.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.30 49.50  0.13  18.90   1206.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  71.80 49.80  0.13  19.80   1226.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  72.70 50.20  0.11  20.45   1246.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  72.10 49.70  0.05  19.90   1266.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.20 50.30  0.04  19.75   1286.4  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6  8  70.90 50.00  0.03  19.45   1305.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  73.10 49.30  0.03  20.20   1326.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.70 48.20  0.05  17.95   1344.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  68.10 48.70  0.01  17.40   1361.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  71.50 48.70  0.01  19.10   1380.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  71.20 49.30  0.09  19.25   1399.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  70.10 49.60  0.03  18.85   1418.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  70.50 48.60  0.00  18.55   1437.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.20 49.00  0.02  19.60   1456.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  72.20 48.60  0.02  19.40   1476.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  71.30 49.30  0.00  19.30   1495.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  70.50 49.70  0.02  19.10   1514.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  72.70 49.40  0.02  20.05   1534.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  73.70 50.00  0.01  20.85   1555.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  76.10 50.40  0.00  22.25   1577.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  74.20 49.30  0.03  20.75   1598.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  75.50 50.30  0.06  21.90   1620.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  76.80 51.30  0.02  23.05   1643.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  77.00 52.90  0.06  23.95   1667.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  79.50 53.50  0.04  25.50   1692.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  82.10 54.00  0.02  27.05   1719.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.60 55.60  0.03  26.60   1746.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  78.70 54.40  0.01  25.55   1772.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  81.70 52.90  0.03  26.30   1798.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  84.20 53.60  0.01  27.90   1826.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  84.50 54.60  0.01  28.55   1854.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  82.10 53.50  0.00  26.80   1881.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.90 53.10  0.00  26.50   1908.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  80.50 53.60  0.00  26.05   1934.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  82.00 52.80  0.00  26.40   1960.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  84.00 53.30  0.00  27.65   1988.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  86.50 54.40  0.00  29.45   2017.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  87.00 55.10  0.00  30.05   2047.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  84.10 54.40  0.00  28.25   2076.0  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 12  81.20 54.80  0.01  27.00   2103.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.80 55.30  0.09  26.55   2129.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  80.20 53.90  0.03  26.05   2155.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  85.20 54.70  0.00  28.95   2184.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  85.20 55.30  0.01  29.25   2213.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  83.20 55.40  0.01  28.30   2242.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  80.60 54.30  0.05  26.45   2268.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  80.70 54.70  0.02  26.70   2295.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  82.50 55.10  0.00  27.80   2323.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.60 54.40  0.00  27.00   2350.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  83.00 55.20  0.01  28.10   2378.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.80  0.01  26.85   2405.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  82.20 54.70  0.03  27.45   2432.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.20 54.60  0.00  29.40   2461.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.90 54.40  0.00  28.65   2490.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  85.20 54.30  0.00  28.75   2519.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.50 54.90  0.00  28.70   2547.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.90  0.00  29.10   2577.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.50 55.70  0.00  29.10   2606.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.90  0.00  28.10   2634.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.30 54.20  0.01  28.75   2663.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.20 55.80  0.00  29.00   2692.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  83.00 55.10  0.00  28.05   2720.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.60 54.00  0.00  28.30   2748.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.90 53.70  0.00  29.30   2777.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  85.50 55.00  0.00  29.25   2806.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.20 55.50  0.00  28.35   2835.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  81.10 54.80  0.00  26.95   2862.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.80 54.70  0.00  25.75   2887.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  80.00 54.60  0.00  26.30   2914.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.70 53.20  0.01  26.45   2940.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.70 55.20  0.01  28.45   2969.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.30 54.40  0.00  27.35   2996.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.20 54.80  0.00  28.50   3025.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  86.10 55.90  0.00  30.00   3055.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.90 56.70  0.00  29.30   3084.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 55.80  0.00  29.80   3114.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.50 56.10  0.00  30.30   3144.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.60 56.10  0.04  29.35   3173.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  84.40 55.90  0.04  29.15   3202.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  81.00 54.00  0.05  26.50   3229.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  80.00 52.80  0.00  25.40   3254.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 52.40  0.00  25.45   3280.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.50 52.60  0.00  26.05   3306.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  83.20 53.20  0.04  27.20   3333.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.70 53.50  0.02  27.10   3360.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.20 53.20  0.01  27.20   3387.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.30 53.60  0.00  27.95   3415.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  82.00 54.20  0.04  27.10   3442.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.70 54.10  0.04  24.90   3467.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 53.30  0.03  23.50   3491.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.70  0.01  22.35   3513.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.90 51.10  0.00  24.50   3538.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.20 51.10  0.00  25.15   3563.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.40 51.30  0.03  25.35   3588.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.70 51.50  0.04  24.60   3613.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.50 52.10  0.30  24.80   3638.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.30 50.60  0.02  24.45   3662.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.70 51.70  0.02  25.20   3687.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.70 51.20  0.01  24.95   3712.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.20 52.10  0.00  25.15   3737.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.50 51.00  0.00  26.25   3764.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.50 50.70  0.00  27.60   3791.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  84.00 50.90  0.00  26.45   3818.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.20 51.50  0.00  23.35   3841.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.80 51.60  0.00  23.20   3864.6  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KSLE Salem: McNary Field
DD accumulation on 2-26-17: 403 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 5 days ahead 2016 ok
 18 days ahead 2015 ok
 33 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 4-15-17: 1230 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-24-17: 892QA 78% ok - Caution - 22% of data estimated  - show details/Data QA should be OK but use with caution. Extended seasonal forecast: NOAA NMME  
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 17 days behind 2016 ok
 29 days behind 2015 ok
 34 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 645 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 31 days behind 2015 ok
 3 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-14-17 855peak pheromone trap catch
 5-19-17 953peak female adult emergence
 5-23-17 1013peak egg laying
 6-7-17 1286peak egg hatch
 7-11-17 2076peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)