Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.00 33.00 0.16 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 35.10 28.40 0.06 0.00 0.0 1 3 37.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 37.40 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 39.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 28.90 24.80 0.27 0.00 0.0 1 8 41.00 28.00 0.71 0.00 0.0 1 9 43.00 35.60 0.95 0.45 0.5 1 10 43.00 33.00 0.82 0.39 0.8 1 11 35.60 30.90 0.01 0.00 0.8 1 12 36.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 13 30.90 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 14 34.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 15 36.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 16 37.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 1 17 52.00 26.10 1.13 3.19 4.0 1 18 55.90 46.00 0.62 9.95 14.0 1 19 52.00 37.90 0.01 4.58 18.6 1 20 51.80 37.00 0.13 4.31 22.9 1 21 49.00 36.00 0.27 2.87 25.8 1 22 51.80 35.60 0.05 4.07 29.8 1 23 53.60 30.00 0.00 4.16 34.0 1 24 48.20 26.60 0.00 1.83 35.8 1 25 46.90 37.40 0.00 2.13 37.9 1 26 52.00 33.00 0.00 3.81 41.8 1 27 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.84 42.6 1 28 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 44.0 1 29 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 46.3 1 30 47.00 39.00 0.00 2.44 48.7 1 31 48.20 33.10 0.03 2.23 50.9 2 1 43.00 33.10 0.00 0.39 51.3 2 2 48.20 33.10 0.15 2.23 53.6 2 3 49.00 30.00 0.99 2.31 55.9 2 4 52.00 46.00 1.92 8.00 63.9 2 5 48.20 37.00 1.85 2.66 66.5 2 6 43.00 35.60 0.41 0.45 67.0 2 7 40.00 35.00 0.33 0.00 67.0 2 8 48.00 39.00 1.63 2.91 69.9 2 9 61.00 44.60 0.31 11.80 81.7 2 10 50.00 42.80 0.16 5.40 87.1 2 11 52.00 33.10 0.00 3.82 90.9 2 12 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 93.5 2 13 57.20 28.40 0.00 5.52 99.0 2 14 52.00 28.40 0.06 3.36 102.4 2 15 57.20 44.60 2.12 9.90 112.3 2 16 55.90 46.00 0.42 9.95 122.2 2 17 55.90 39.00 0.12 6.75 129.0 2 18 54.00 42.80 0.51 7.40 136.4 2 19 51.10 39.00 0.56 4.40 140.8 2 20 52.00 42.80 1.08 6.40 147.2 2 21 46.40 39.20 0.44 2.19 149.4 2 22 45.00 33.80 0.16 1.06 150.4 2 23 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 151.3 2 24 41.00 32.00 0.03 0.00 151.3 2 25 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 153.3 2 26 44.10 35.60 0.23 0.83 154.1 2 27 45.00 35.10 0.08 1.13 155.2 2 28 50.00 37.00 0.11 3.47 158.7 3 1 52.00 37.00 0.01 4.40 163.1 3 2 50.00 33.80 0.03 3.04 166.2 3 3 51.80 42.80 0.47 6.30 172.5 3 4 46.90 35.60 0.19 1.93 174.4 3 5 44.60 33.80 0.50 0.92 175.3 3 6 45.00 33.10 0.35 1.02 176.3 3 7 48.90 39.20 0.73 3.39 179.7 3 8 51.80 44.10 0.19 6.95 186.6 3 9 57.90 51.10 0.33 13.50 200.1 3 10 62.10 44.60 0.01 12.35 212.5 3 11 57.90 39.90 0.21 8.02 220.5 3 12 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 234.0 3 13 57.90 51.10 0.15 13.50 247.5 3 14 59.00 53.60 1.02 15.30 262.8 3 15 55.90 46.00 0.67 9.95 272.8 3 16 55.90 35.10 0.00 5.88 278.6 3 17 55.90 35.60 0.17 5.97 284.6 3 18 57.90 39.00 0.41 7.73 292.3 3 19 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 298.3 3 20 50.00 39.20 0.23 3.92 302.2 3 21 64.40 45.00 0.11 13.70 315.9 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.01 8.10 324.0 3 23 57.20 35.10 0.59 6.48 330.5 3 24 55.40 43.00 0.43 8.20 338.7 3 25 54.00 42.80 0.02 7.40 346.1 3 26 53.60 42.80 0.56 7.20 353.3 3 27 55.90 44.10 0.04 9.00 362.3 3 28 61.00 46.00 0.12 12.50 374.8 3 29 55.90 46.00 0.16 9.95 384.8 3 30 57.20 37.90 0.21 7.09 391.8 3 31 57.90 34.00 0.00 6.61 398.5 4 1 61.00 42.80 0.00 10.90 409.4 4 2 59.00 39.00 0.00 8.27 417.6 4 3 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 422.8 4 4 59.10 38.70 0.00 8.23 431.0 Hx Hn 4 5 61.00 46.00 0.04 12.50 443.5 4 6 66.20 46.40 0.18 15.30 458.8 4 7 55.90 42.10 0.16 8.00 466.8 4 8 53.10 39.00 0.25 5.37 472.2 4 9 57.90 35.60 0.18 6.91 479.1 4 10 55.90 39.90 0.02 7.02 486.1 4 11 54.00 37.00 0.36 5.34 491.5 4 12 62.60 44.10 0.10 12.35 503.8 4 13 54.00 42.80 0.10 7.40 511.2 4 14 55.40 41.00 0.05 7.20 518.4 4 15 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 526.3 4 16 64.90 39.00 0.16 11.19 537.5 4 17 60.80 46.00 0.42 12.40 549.9 4 18 64.40 48.00 0.02 15.20 565.1 4 19 59.00 46.40 0.38 11.70 576.8 4 20 61.00 41.00 0.08 10.00 586.8 4 21 69.80 35.60 0.00 12.63 599.5 4 22 64.00 46.40 0.11 14.20 613.7 4 23 55.90 46.40 0.53 10.15 623.8 4 24 57.90 44.60 0.26 10.25 634.1 4 25 59.00 44.60 1.59 10.80 644.9 4 26 55.40 42.10 0.50 7.75 652.6 4 27 55.90 41.00 0.17 7.45 660.1 4 28 60.10 35.60 0.00 7.95 668.0 4 29 66.20 39.00 0.05 11.83 679.8 4 30 61.00 44.10 0.07 11.55 691.4 5 1 55.40 37.00 0.00 6.01 697.4 5 2 66.90 51.10 0.02 18.00 715.4 5 3 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 740.8 5 4 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 769.4 5 5 57.20 45.00 0.16 10.10 779.5 5 6 60.80 37.90 0.00 8.84 788.3 5 7 64.90 39.20 0.00 11.25 799.6 5 8 73.40 39.00 0.00 15.41 815.0 5 9 77.00 42.80 0.00 18.90 833.9 5 10 73.90 44.10 0.03 18.00 851.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 11 57.20 48.20 3.34 11.70 863.6 5 12 57.20 43.00 0.11 9.10 872.7 5 13 55.90 44.10 0.10 9.00 881.7 5 14 61.00 48.00 0.19 13.50 895.2 5 15 61.00 37.00 0.27 8.70 903.9 5 16 59.00 46.40 0.23 11.70 915.6 5 17 60.80 44.10 0.13 11.45 927.1 5 18 71.60 37.40 0.00 14.00 941.1 5 19 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 962.6 peak female adult emergence 5 20 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 981.5 5 21 82.90 48.90 0.00 24.90 1006.4 peak egg laying 5 22 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 1037.0 5 23 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 1066.0 5 24 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1080.4 5 25 73.90 44.10 0.00 18.00 1098.4 5 26 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 1122.7 5 27 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 1152.4 5 28 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1176.7 5 29 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 1197.6 5 30 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1213.8 5 31 77.00 48.20 0.02 21.60 1235.4 6 1 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1256.9 6 2 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 1280.9 peak egg hatch 6 3 66.20 53.10 0.02 18.65 1299.6 6 4 70.00 46.90 0.00 17.45 1317.0 6 5 79.00 44.10 0.00 20.55 1337.6 6 6 82.90 48.20 0.00 24.55 1362.1 6 7 75.90 50.00 0.28 21.95 1384.1 6 8 64.90 53.60 0.07 18.25 1402.3 6 9 61.00 50.00 0.15 14.50 1416.8 6 10 62.10 50.00 0.07 15.05 1431.9 6 11 68.00 50.00 0.01 18.00 1449.9 6 12 61.00 51.80 0.00 15.40 1465.3 6 13 64.40 51.10 0.00 16.75 1482.0 6 14 69.10 48.00 0.01 17.55 1499.6 6 15 63.00 55.00 0.12 18.00 1517.6 6 16 64.90 53.70 0.02 18.30 1535.9 Pn 6 17 75.20 50.50 0.00 21.85 1557.7 Pn 6 18 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 1587.4 Pn 6 19 89.10 58.40 0.00 32.75 1620.2 Px Pn 6 20 80.60 54.40 0.00 26.50 1646.7 Pn 6 21 78.80 48.00 0.00 22.40 1669.1 6 22 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 1696.6 6 23 93.20 55.00 0.00 33.10 1729.7 6 24 100.90 55.40 0.00 37.15 1766.9 6 25 98.60 57.20 0.00 36.90 1803.8 6 26 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 1829.9 6 27 77.00 55.90 0.00 25.45 1855.3 6 28 75.90 52.00 0.00 22.95 1878.3 6 29 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 1904.3 6 30 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1932.2 7 1 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 1958.3 7 2 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1985.3 7 3 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 2012.5 7 4 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 2042.9 7 5 91.40 55.90 0.00 32.65 2075.5 peak in density large larvae 7 6 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 2106.1 7 7 75.20 60.80 0.00 27.00 2133.1 7 8 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 2162.8 7 9 87.80 51.80 0.00 28.80 2191.6 7 10 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 2220.3 7 11 82.00 51.80 0.00 25.90 2246.2 7 12 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 2274.1 7 13 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2299.3 7 14 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 2327.9 7 15 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2355.1 7 16 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 2380.1 7 17 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 2406.5 7 18 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 2435.0 7 19 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 2460.5 7 20 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2484.5 7 21 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 2511.0 7 22 93.20 57.00 0.00 34.10 2545.1 7 23 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 2578.9 7 24 91.40 54.00 0.00 31.70 2610.6 7 25 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 2643.9 7 26 91.40 57.00 0.00 33.20 2677.1 7 27 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 2704.3 7 28 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2733.1 7 29 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 2763.9 7 30 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 2798.4 7 31 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 2833.5 8 1 100.90 60.10 0.00 39.50 2873.0 8 2 107.60 66.20 0.00 45.90 2918.9 8 3 102.90 64.00 0.00 42.45 2961.3 8 4 97.00 62.10 0.00 38.55 2999.9 8 5 90.00 53.10 0.00 30.55 3030.4 8 6 91.40 55.00 0.00 32.20 3062.6 8 7 93.20 64.00 0.00 37.60 3100.2 8 8 95.00 60.10 0.00 36.55 3136.8 8 9 96.80 60.10 0.00 37.45 3174.2 8 10 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 3208.7 8 11 88.00 60.80 0.00 33.40 3242.1 8 12 79.00 60.10 0.09 28.55 3270.6 8 13 75.90 57.00 0.06 25.45 3296.1 8 14 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3317.7 8 15 82.90 48.20 0.00 24.55 3342.2 8 16 87.80 53.10 0.00 29.45 3371.7 8 17 84.90 60.80 0.00 31.85 3403.5 8 18 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 3434.9 8 19 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 3462.8 8 20 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 3488.8 8 21 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 3521.4 8 22 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 3553.9
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3554QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 12 days behind 2016 ok
 19 days behind 2015 ok
 15 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  8 23  83.00 59.00  0.00  30.00   3583.9  Mostly_Sunny_2%_precip    
  8 24  76.00 59.00  0.00  26.50   3610.4  Partly_Cloudy_3%_precip    
  8 25  81.00 50.00  0.00  24.50   3634.9  Sunny_21%_precip    
  8 26  88.00 52.00  0.00  29.00   3663.9  Sunny_2%_precip    
  8 27  93.00 56.00  0.00  33.50   3697.4  Sunny_4%_precip    
  8 28  91.00 57.00  0.00  33.00   3730.4  Sunny_6%_precip    
  8 29  89.00 57.00  0.00  32.00   3762.4  Mostly_Sunny_9%_precip    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KSLE 2006-2015
  8 30  77.70 54.10  0.04  24.90   3787.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 53.30  0.03  23.50   3810.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.70  0.01  22.35   3833.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.90 51.10  0.00  24.50   3857.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.20 51.10  0.00  25.15   3882.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.40 51.30  0.03  25.35   3908.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.70 51.50  0.04  24.60   3932.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.50 52.10  0.30  24.80   3957.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.30 50.60  0.02  24.45   3982.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.70 51.70  0.02  25.20   4007.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.70 51.20  0.01  24.95   4032.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.20 52.10  0.00  25.15   4057.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.50 51.00  0.00  26.25   4083.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.50 50.70  0.00  27.60   4111.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  84.00 50.90  0.00  26.45   4137.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.20 51.50  0.00  23.35   4161.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.80 51.60  0.00  23.20   4184.2  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KSLE Salem: McNary Field
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3554 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 12 days behind 2016 ok
 19 days behind 2015 ok
 15 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-10-17 852peak pheromone trap catch
 5-19-17 963peak female adult emergence
 5-21-17 1006peak egg laying
 6-2-17 1281peak egg hatch
 7-5-17 2076peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)