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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.40 24.10 0.00 0.03 0.0 * START *Vx Vn
1 2 42.80 22.70 0.00 0.23 0.3 Vx Vn
1 3 42.10 37.00 0.02 0.22 0.5
1 4 53.10 37.00 0.12 4.92 5.4
1 5 55.90 42.10 0.08 8.00 13.4
1 6 46.00 37.90 0.00 1.80 15.2
1 7 44.10 39.90 0.00 1.25 16.4
1 8 45.00 37.40 0.00 1.31 17.8
1 9 45.00 33.10 0.00 1.02 18.8
1 10 45.00 33.10 0.01 1.02 19.8
1 11 48.00 44.10 0.15 5.05 24.8
1 12 48.20 43.00 0.13 4.60 29.4
1 13 51.10 30.90 0.00 3.21 32.7
1 14 48.90 30.00 0.00 2.27 34.9
1 15 52.00 28.00 0.68 3.33 38.3
1 16 55.00 39.00 0.06 6.30 44.6
1 17 60.10 39.90 1.72 9.11 53.7
1 18 59.00 46.90 0.29 11.95 65.6
1 19 55.90 42.10 0.03 8.00 73.6
1 20 48.90 36.00 0.00 2.83 76.5
1 21 48.90 28.90 0.00 2.20 78.7
1 22 51.10 39.00 0.01 4.40 83.1
1 23 54.00 43.00 0.04 7.50 90.6
1 24 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 103.1
1 25 51.10 43.00 0.00 6.05 109.2
1 26 53.10 41.00 0.00 6.05 115.2
1 27 54.00 42.10 0.00 7.05 122.3
1 28 57.90 46.40 0.00 11.15 133.4
1 29 55.90 37.90 0.00 6.46 139.9
1 30 55.00 32.00 0.00 5.00 144.9
1 31 50.00 28.00 0.01 2.56 147.4
2 1 51.10 28.00 0.30 2.98 150.4
2 2 60.10 43.00 0.29 10.55 161.0
2 3 51.10 41.00 0.26 5.05 166.0
2 4 51.10 46.90 0.09 8.00 174.0
2 5 57.90 46.40 0.83 11.15 185.2
2 6 55.90 51.10 0.88 12.50 197.7
2 7 57.90 48.00 0.42 11.95 209.6
2 8 54.00 44.10 0.28 8.05 217.7
2 9 53.10 48.00 0.81 9.55 227.2
2 10 55.90 44.10 0.13 9.00 236.2
2 11 54.00 39.00 0.00 5.81 242.0
2 12 54.00 37.90 0.00 5.54 247.6
2 13 52.00 42.10 0.00 6.05 253.6
2 14 61.00 37.00 0.00 8.70 262.3
2 15 64.00 42.10 0.00 12.05 274.4
2 16 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 286.1
2 17 64.90 36.00 0.00 10.35 296.4
2 18 57.90 37.90 0.00 7.43 303.9
2 19 59.00 43.00 0.00 10.00 313.9
2 20 57.90 39.90 0.00 8.02 321.9
2 21 60.10 39.00 0.00 8.81 330.7
2 22 57.90 33.10 0.00 6.46 337.2
2 23 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 344.3
2 24 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 351.4
2 25 52.00 36.00 0.00 4.23 355.6
2 26 53.10 46.90 0.06 9.00 364.6
2 27 53.10 46.00 0.10 8.55 373.2
2 28 57.00 32.00 0.00 5.89 379.1
3 1 57.00 26.10 0.01 5.20 384.3
3 2 55.90 36.00 0.01 6.04 390.3
3 3 57.00 28.00 0.00 5.39 395.7
3 4 57.90 27.00 0.00 5.66 401.4
3 5 61.00 30.00 0.00 7.39 408.8
3 6 66.00 33.10 0.00 10.24 419.0
3 7 68.00 33.10 0.00 11.18 430.2
3 8 69.10 34.00 0.00 11.90 442.1
3 9 71.10 37.00 0.00 13.64 455.7
3 10 63.00 37.00 0.00 9.68 465.4
3 11 59.00 51.10 0.08 14.05 479.4
3 12 56.00 53.10 0.00 13.55 493.0 Hx
3 13 64.00 53.10 0.27 17.55 510.5
3 14 57.00 54.00 1.49 14.50 525.0
3 15 62.10 42.10 0.48 11.10 536.1
3 16 64.00 36.00 0.00 9.91 546.1
3 17 60.10 39.00 0.03 8.81 554.9
3 18 64.00 42.10 0.00 12.05 566.9
3 19 68.00 37.90 0.00 12.38 579.3
3 20 63.00 45.00 0.46 13.00 592.3
3 21 61.00 43.00 0.01 11.00 603.3
3 22 57.00 44.10 0.13 9.55 612.8
3 23 54.00 46.00 0.87 9.00 621.8
3 24 57.90 43.00 0.10 9.45 631.3
3 25 64.00 48.90 0.08 15.45 646.7
3 26 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 664.2
3 27 68.00 45.00 0.09 15.50 679.7
3 28 61.00 46.00 0.00 12.50 692.2
3 29 69.10 39.00 0.00 13.27 705.5
3 30 68.00 39.90 0.08 13.04 718.6
3 31 54.00 44.10 0.14 8.05 726.6
4 1 53.10 39.90 0.34 5.64 732.2
4 2 57.90 39.00 0.00 7.73 740.0
4 3 52.00 36.00 0.21 4.23 744.2
4 4 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 751.0
4 5 54.00 34.00 0.10 4.83 755.8
4 6 55.90 33.10 0.04 5.55 761.4
4 7 60.10 42.10 0.24 10.10 771.5
4 8 59.00 43.00 0.00 10.00 781.5
4 9 66.00 37.90 0.00 11.39 792.8
4 10 61.00 39.00 0.19 9.26 802.1
4 11 55.00 39.90 0.08 6.58 808.7
4 12 61.00 37.90 0.00 8.94 817.6
4 13 55.00 39.00 0.43 6.30 823.9
4 14 53.10 37.00 0.11 4.92 828.8
4 15 57.90 33.10 0.00 6.46 835.3
4 16 71.10 36.00 0.00 13.36 848.7
4 17 73.00 39.90 0.00 15.53 864.2 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 18 75.90 39.90 0.00 16.98 881.2
4 19 75.90 42.10 0.00 18.00 899.2
4 20 79.00 43.00 0.00 20.00 919.2
4 21 64.90 43.00 0.04 12.95 932.1
4 22 61.00 37.90 0.00 8.94 941.1
4 23 55.00 37.90 0.03 6.02 947.1
4 24 55.90 45.00 0.22 9.45 956.5 Peak female adult emergence
4 25 60.10 41.00 0.01 9.55 966.1
4 26 60.10 39.90 0.01 9.11 975.2
4 27 80.10 46.90 0.00 22.50 997.7
4 28 64.90 43.00 0.02 12.95 1010.6 Peak egg laying
4 29 64.90 37.90 0.00 10.85 1021.5
4 30 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 1035.2
5 1 73.90 45.00 0.00 18.45 1053.7
5 2 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 1069.7
5 3 75.00 39.90 0.00 16.53 1086.2
5 4 64.90 42.10 0.00 12.50 1098.7
5 5 63.00 46.00 0.04 13.50 1112.2
5 6 64.90 44.10 0.04 13.50 1125.7
5 7 73.00 37.90 0.00 14.84 1140.6
5 8 80.10 42.10 0.00 20.10 1160.7
5 9 84.00 46.00 0.00 24.00 1184.7
5 10 73.00 48.00 0.05 19.50 1204.2
5 11 57.90 48.00 0.22 11.95 1216.1
5 12 55.00 48.00 0.29 10.50 1226.6
5 13 64.90 48.90 0.00 15.90 1242.5
5 14 72.00 48.20 0.00 19.10 1261.6
5 15 61.00 51.10 0.00 15.05 1276.7 Peak egg hatch
5 16 62.10 52.00 0.00 16.05 1292.7
5 17 71.10 52.00 0.00 20.55 1313.3
5 18 77.00 48.90 0.01 21.95 1335.2
5 19 64.90 54.00 0.00 18.45 1353.7
5 20 69.10 55.90 0.00 21.50 1375.2
5 21 73.90 55.90 0.04 23.90 1399.1
5 22 61.00 53.60 0.03 16.30 1415.4
5 23 63.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 1432.4
5 24 69.10 52.00 0.00 19.55 1452.0
5 25 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 1472.0
5 26 71.10 46.90 0.00 18.00 1490.0
5 27 80.10 48.90 0.00 23.50 1513.5
5 28 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 1541.0
5 29 82.00 53.10 0.00 26.55 1567.6
5 30 80.10 50.00 0.00 24.05 1591.6
5 31 87.10 55.00 0.36 30.05 1621.7
6 1 64.00 53.60 0.29 17.80 1639.5
6 2 64.00 54.00 0.02 18.00 1657.5
6 3 66.90 52.00 0.01 18.45 1675.9
6 4 75.00 53.10 0.00 23.05 1699.0
6 5 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 1728.0
6 6 91.00 55.90 0.00 32.45 1760.4
6 7 93.00 55.00 0.00 33.00 1793.4
6 8 96.10 59.00 0.00 36.55 1830.0
6 9 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 1863.4
6 10 82.00 46.90 0.00 23.45 1886.9
6 11 82.00 48.00 0.00 24.00 1910.9
6 12 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1933.4
6 13 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 1954.9
6 14 88.00 46.90 0.00 26.45 1981.3
6 15 84.00 51.10 0.00 26.55 2007.9
6 16 79.00 46.90 0.00 21.95 2029.8
6 17 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 2055.3
6 18 82.90 57.90 0.00 29.40 2084.7 Peak in density large larvae
6 19 79.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 2110.2
6 20 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 2137.2
6 21 82.90 55.90 0.00 28.40 2165.6
6 22 81.00 48.90 0.00 23.95 2189.5
6 23 84.90 52.00 0.00 27.45 2217.0
6 24 87.10 57.00 0.00 31.05 2248.0
6 25 93.00 57.00 0.00 34.00 2282.0
6 26 100.00 64.90 0.00 41.45 2323.5
6 27 95.00 71.10 0.00 42.05 2365.5
6 28 84.90 64.90 0.00 33.90 2399.4
6 29 91.00 60.10 0.00 34.55 2434.0
6 30 95.00 59.00 0.00 36.00 2470.0
7 1 98.10 63.00 0.00 39.55 2509.5
7 2 100.00 60.10 0.00 39.05 2548.6
7 3 99.00 61.00 0.00 39.00 2587.6
7 4 97.00 59.00 0.00 37.00 2624.6
7 5 96.10 60.10 0.00 37.10 2661.7
7 6 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 2696.1
7 7 89.10 55.90 0.00 31.50 2727.6
7 8 93.00 57.00 0.00 34.00 2761.6
7 9 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2793.1
7 10 78.10 60.10 0.00 28.10 2821.2
7 11 73.00 63.00 0.00 27.00 2848.2
7 12 82.90 61.00 0.00 30.95 2879.2
7 13 84.90 61.00 0.00 31.95 2911.1
7 14 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 2941.6
7 15 84.90 54.00 0.00 28.45 2970.1
7 16 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 2997.1
7 17 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 3026.1
7 18 99.00 62.10 0.00 39.55 3065.6
7 19 96.10 61.00 0.00 37.55 3103.2
7 20 89.10 57.00 0.00 32.05 3135.2
7 21 79.00 57.90 0.00 27.45 3162.7
7 22 77.00 52.00 0.00 23.50 3186.2
7 23 82.90 54.00 0.00 27.45 3213.6
7 24 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 3241.6
7 25 73.90 61.00 0.01 26.45 3268.1
7 26 73.90 52.00 0.00 21.95 3290.0
7 27 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 3313.5
7 28 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 3343.5
7 29 99.00 61.00 0.00 39.00 3382.5
7 30 105.10 61.00 0.00 42.05 3424.6
7 31 102.90 62.10 0.00 41.50 3466.1
8 1 100.00 60.10 0.00 39.05 3505.1
8 2 82.00 63.00 0.00 31.50 3536.6
8 3 84.00 63.00 0.00 32.50 3569.1
8 4 84.90 57.90 0.00 30.40 3599.5
8 5 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 3626.5
8 6 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 3653.5
8 7 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 3684.0
8 8 80.10 55.90 0.00 27.00 3711.0
8 9 86.00 55.90 0.00 29.95 3741.0
8 10 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 3773.0
8 11 89.10 62.10 0.00 34.60 3807.6
8 12 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 3842.6
8 13 87.10 55.90 0.00 30.50 3873.1
8 14 75.00 59.00 0.00 26.00 3899.1
8 15 79.00 62.10 0.00 29.55 3928.7
8 16 86.00 52.00 0.00 28.00 3956.7
8 17 91.00 54.00 0.00 31.50 3988.2
8 18 97.00 55.90 0.00 35.45 4023.6
8 19 98.10 61.00 0.00 38.55 4062.2
8 20 82.00 59.00 0.00 29.50 4091.7
8 21 80.10 53.10 0.00 25.60 4117.3
8 22 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 4146.8
8 23 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 4177.3
8 24 84.00 53.10 0.00 27.55 4204.9
8 25 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 4231.9
8 26 89.10 51.10 0.00 29.10 4261.0
8 27 90.00 51.10 0.00 29.55 4290.5
8 28 82.00 64.00 0.23 32.00 4322.5
8 29 75.00 63.00 0.23 28.00 4350.5
8 30 73.00 57.00 0.25 24.00 4374.5
8 31 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 4400.0
9 1 78.10 59.00 0.00 27.55 4427.5
9 2 70.00 55.90 0.00 21.95 4449.5
9 3 69.10 50.00 0.00 18.55 4468.0
9 4 68.00 46.90 0.00 16.45 4484.5
9 5 73.00 46.90 0.00 18.95 4503.4
9 6 73.00 46.90 0.00 18.95 4522.4
9 7 77.00 54.00 0.00 24.50 4546.9
9 8 84.00 51.10 0.00 26.55 4573.4
9 9 86.00 55.90 0.00 29.95 4603.4
9 10 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 4634.9
9 11 91.90 55.90 0.00 32.90 4667.8
9 12 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 4700.3
9 13 79.00 52.00 0.00 24.50 4724.8
9 14 64.00 46.90 0.00 14.45 4739.2
9 15 64.90 45.00 0.04 13.95 4753.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-17-15 | 864 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-24-15 | 957 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 4-28-15 | 1011 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-15-15 | 1277 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-18-15 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?255888)
