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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 35.60 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 48.90 28.40 1.42 2.17 2.2
1 3 46.90 35.10 0.71 1.88 4.1
1 4 46.40 37.00 0.22 1.86 5.9
1 5 44.60 39.20 4.17 1.36 7.3
1 6 55.90 41.00 0.34 7.45 14.7
1 7 51.80 39.00 0.14 4.74 19.5
1 8 48.90 35.10 0.10 2.72 22.2
1 9 53.60 30.00 0.00 4.16 26.3
1 10 46.40 32.00 0.08 1.46 27.8
1 11 57.20 41.00 0.07 8.10 35.9
1 12 57.90 39.20 0.04 7.79 43.7
1 13 52.00 42.10 0.03 6.05 49.7
1 14 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 54.9
1 15 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 54.9
1 16 45.00 37.00 0.01 1.27 56.2
1 17 39.90 37.40 0.02 0.00 56.2
1 18 48.20 39.00 0.05 3.00 59.2
1 19 53.60 44.60 0.15 8.10 67.3
1 20 57.20 37.40 0.03 6.96 74.2
1 21 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 77.1
1 22 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 80.7
1 23 51.80 28.00 0.00 3.25 84.0
1 24 37.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 84.0
1 25 53.60 26.10 0.00 3.82 87.8
1 26 51.80 24.80 0.00 3.03 90.8
1 27 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 94.3
1 28 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 96.9
1 29 48.20 24.80 0.00 1.75 98.6
1 30 51.80 28.40 0.23 3.29 101.9
1 31 50.00 32.00 0.01 2.86 104.8
2 1 48.20 26.60 0.04 1.83 106.6
2 2 46.90 39.20 0.01 2.43 109.1
2 3 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 113.4
2 4 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 116.3
2 5 51.80 35.10 0.00 4.00 120.3
2 6 48.20 28.00 0.00 1.90 122.2
2 7 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 127.1
2 8 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 130.8
2 9 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 138.9
2 10 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 143.0
2 11 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 156.5
2 12 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 168.5
2 13 60.10 30.20 0.00 7.02 175.5
2 14 51.80 37.40 0.18 4.38 179.9
2 15 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 182.6
2 16 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 188.9
2 17 48.90 33.80 0.00 2.58 191.5
2 18 60.80 30.20 0.00 7.33 198.8
2 19 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 202.4
2 20 50.00 37.00 0.01 3.47 205.9
2 21 44.60 35.10 0.11 0.98 206.9
2 22 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 206.9
2 23 39.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 206.9
2 24 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.24 207.1
2 25 50.00 24.10 0.00 2.34 209.5
2 26 42.80 28.00 0.24 0.27 209.7
2 27 55.90 39.00 0.43 6.75 216.5
2 28 57.90 53.60 2.08 14.75 231.2
3 1 57.90 51.10 0.18 13.50 244.7
3 2 53.60 46.40 0.30 9.00 253.7
3 3 53.10 37.00 0.04 4.92 258.6
3 4 52.00 33.80 0.01 3.91 262.6
3 5 57.20 30.00 0.00 5.71 268.3
3 6 52.00 28.40 0.00 3.36 271.6
3 7 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 276.0
3 8 55.40 36.00 0.07 5.81 281.8
3 9 52.00 35.10 0.04 4.09 285.9
3 10 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 288.4
3 11 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 295.5
3 12 55.90 28.40 0.44 4.97 300.5
3 13 52.00 42.10 0.44 6.05 306.5
3 14 53.60 44.10 0.42 7.85 314.4
3 15 57.20 41.00 0.06 8.10 322.5
3 16 55.90 37.00 0.00 6.25 328.7
3 17 52.00 35.60 0.01 4.16 332.9
3 18 55.40 44.60 0.05 9.00 341.9
3 19 54.00 35.60 0.05 5.08 347.0
3 20 48.90 35.10 0.08 2.72 349.7
3 21 51.80 42.80 0.24 6.30 356.0
3 22 66.90 50.00 0.01 17.45 373.4
3 23 60.80 39.00 0.01 9.16 382.6
3 24 62.60 33.10 0.00 8.64 391.2
3 25 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 401.3
3 26 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 415.7
3 27 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 430.5
3 28 57.90 43.00 0.16 9.45 439.9
3 29 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 449.9
3 30 57.20 39.00 0.00 7.38 457.3
3 31 55.40 37.00 0.00 6.01 463.3
4 1 60.80 33.80 0.05 7.92 471.3
4 2 57.90 37.00 0.07 7.21 478.5
4 3 54.00 39.20 0.75 5.87 484.3
4 4 54.00 37.40 0.22 5.43 489.8
4 5 55.40 35.10 0.15 5.64 495.4
4 6 66.90 33.10 0.00 10.66 506.1
4 7 75.20 42.10 0.01 17.65 523.7
4 8 57.20 37.00 0.01 6.87 530.6
4 9 53.60 33.80 0.18 4.62 535.2
4 10 45.00 33.10 1.00 1.02 536.2
4 11 48.90 33.10 0.12 2.51 538.7
4 12 46.40 35.60 0.37 1.72 540.5
4 13 50.00 30.90 0.09 2.77 543.2
4 14 48.20 28.90 0.18 1.95 545.2
4 15 54.00 26.60 0.00 4.02 549.2
4 16 51.10 30.00 0.02 3.14 552.3
4 17 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 557.5
4 18 48.00 41.00 0.41 3.50 561.0
4 19 51.10 39.00 0.40 4.40 565.4
4 20 55.40 37.90 0.44 6.21 571.6
4 21 54.00 44.10 0.25 8.05 579.7
4 22 60.80 39.00 0.06 9.16 588.8
4 23 64.90 35.10 0.00 10.14 599.0
4 24 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 610.7
4 25 59.00 42.80 0.02 9.90 620.6
4 26 55.40 39.20 0.09 6.56 627.2
4 27 57.20 42.10 0.03 8.65 635.8
4 28 55.90 42.10 0.01 8.00 643.8
4 29 57.90 42.10 0.48 9.00 652.8
4 30 55.90 44.10 0.05 9.00 661.8
5 1 64.40 44.10 0.10 13.25 675.1
5 2 57.00 43.00 0.03 9.00 684.1
5 3 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 695.8
5 4 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 710.8
5 5 59.00 44.10 0.36 10.55 721.4
5 6 60.10 46.40 0.77 12.25 733.6
5 7 54.00 41.00 0.02 6.50 740.1
5 8 48.90 36.00 0.28 2.83 743.0
5 9 53.60 33.10 0.01 4.52 747.5
5 10 61.00 37.40 0.02 8.81 756.3
5 11 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 764.6
5 12 48.90 46.40 0.50 6.65 771.2
5 13 55.40 33.10 0.74 5.33 776.5
5 14 68.00 48.00 0.03 17.00 793.5
5 15 68.00 53.60 0.17 19.80 813.3
5 16 64.40 45.00 0.00 13.70 827.0
5 17 64.90 42.80 0.01 12.85 839.9
5 18 60.80 42.80 0.10 10.80 850.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 19 57.90 39.00 0.01 7.73 858.4
5 20 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 866.4
5 21 72.00 35.60 0.00 13.70 880.1
5 22 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 895.9
5 23 71.60 46.00 0.00 17.80 913.7
5 24 64.90 39.20 0.01 11.25 924.9
5 25 75.00 53.60 0.00 23.30 948.2
5 26 71.60 53.10 0.08 21.35 969.6 Peak female adult emergence
5 27 60.80 50.00 0.10 14.40 984.0
5 28 60.80 48.00 0.50 13.40 997.4
5 29 59.00 46.40 1.04 11.70 1009.1 Peak egg laying
5 30 64.00 46.00 0.00 14.00 1023.1
5 31 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1042.3
6 1 75.20 53.10 0.00 23.15 1065.5
6 2 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1087.1
6 3 63.00 53.10 0.08 17.05 1104.1
6 4 63.00 53.60 0.51 17.30 1121.4
6 5 68.00 53.60 0.10 19.80 1141.2
6 6 64.40 48.00 0.03 15.20 1156.4
6 7 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 1172.5
6 8 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 1192.5
6 9 73.00 51.10 0.53 21.05 1213.5
6 10 66.90 57.00 1.15 20.95 1234.5
6 11 69.80 53.10 0.08 20.45 1254.9
6 12 59.00 48.00 0.20 12.50 1267.4
6 13 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 1278.9 Peak egg hatch
6 14 64.90 48.20 0.01 15.55 1294.5
6 15 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1310.7
6 16 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1329.6
6 17 62.60 50.00 0.25 15.30 1344.9
6 18 64.90 46.40 0.05 14.65 1359.5
6 19 64.90 50.00 0.02 16.45 1376.0
6 20 73.00 48.20 0.00 19.60 1395.6
6 21 82.90 46.90 0.00 23.90 1419.5
6 22 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 1444.3
6 23 77.00 42.80 0.00 18.90 1463.2
6 24 84.20 44.60 0.00 23.40 1486.6
6 25 91.90 60.80 0.00 35.35 1522.0
6 26 97.00 63.00 0.00 39.00 1561.0
6 27 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 1592.3
6 28 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1611.3
6 29 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 1633.2
6 30 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1657.5
7 1 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 1682.5
7 2 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1701.4
7 3 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 1724.1
7 4 78.10 50.00 0.00 23.05 1747.1
7 5 72.00 55.40 0.07 22.70 1769.8
7 6 73.90 55.90 0.02 23.90 1793.7
7 7 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 1818.4
7 8 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 1845.6
7 9 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 1872.6
7 10 81.00 53.10 0.00 26.05 1898.6
7 11 97.00 57.90 0.00 36.45 1935.1
7 12 93.20 55.90 0.00 33.55 1968.6
7 13 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 1993.7
7 14 84.20 48.90 0.00 25.55 2019.2
7 15 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 2043.4
7 16 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2068.6
7 17 75.00 53.10 0.00 23.05 2091.7 Peak in density large larvae
7 18 80.60 45.00 0.00 21.80 2113.5
7 19 91.40 51.10 0.00 30.25 2143.7
7 20 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 2177.2
7 21 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2204.4
7 22 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 2229.5
7 23 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 2253.0
7 24 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 2284.1
7 25 100.40 55.40 0.00 36.90 2321.0
7 26 99.00 60.10 0.00 38.55 2359.6
7 27 97.00 57.90 0.00 36.45 2396.0
7 28 96.80 60.10 0.00 37.45 2433.5
7 29 100.00 62.10 0.00 40.05 2473.5
7 30 102.00 64.00 0.00 42.00 2515.5
7 31 96.80 60.10 0.00 37.45 2553.0
8 1 84.00 59.00 0.00 30.50 2583.5
8 2 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2615.0
8 3 82.90 54.00 0.00 27.45 2642.4
8 4 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2666.7
8 5 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 2691.9
8 6 91.90 50.00 0.00 29.95 2721.9
8 7 99.00 53.10 0.00 35.05 2756.9
8 8 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2783.9
8 9 84.20 55.40 0.04 28.80 2812.7
8 10 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 2837.8
8 11 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2864.8
8 12 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2888.9
8 13 79.00 51.80 0.00 24.40 2913.3
8 14 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2940.3
8 15 89.60 53.60 0.00 30.60 2970.9
8 16 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 3003.3
8 17 95.00 57.00 0.00 35.00 3038.3
8 18 88.00 62.10 0.00 34.05 3072.4
8 19 82.40 61.00 0.00 30.70 3103.1
8 20 80.10 60.10 0.00 29.10 3132.2
8 21 89.60 53.10 0.00 30.35 3162.5
8 22 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 3194.0
8 23 88.00 57.20 0.00 31.60 3225.6
8 24 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 3259.1
8 25 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 3293.5
8 26 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 3320.7
8 27 73.40 52.00 0.00 21.70 3342.4
8 28 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 3366.6
8 29 93.90 51.10 0.00 31.50 3398.1
8 30 93.90 55.00 0.00 33.45 3431.6
8 31 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 3462.9
9 1 93.20 50.00 0.00 30.60 3493.5
9 2 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 3521.7
9 3 78.10 55.40 0.00 25.75 3547.5
9 4 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 3574.5
9 5 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 3598.7
9 6 91.90 46.00 0.00 27.95 3626.6
9 7 87.10 46.90 0.00 26.00 3652.6
9 8 82.90 37.40 0.00 19.58 3672.2
9 9 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 3704.5
9 10 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 3739.6
9 11 78.80 57.20 0.02 27.00 3766.6
9 12 75.90 57.00 0.04 25.45 3792.0
9 13 73.00 57.20 0.00 24.10 3816.1
9 14 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 3842.6
9 15 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 3866.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-18-22 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-26-22 | 970 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-29-22 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-13-22 | 1279 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-17-22 | 2092 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2236289)
