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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 55.40 46.40 0.32 9.90 9.9 * START *
1 2 52.00 46.40 1.25 8.20 18.1
1 3 53.10 41.00 0.24 6.05 24.1
1 4 52.00 41.00 0.50 5.50 29.6
1 5 50.00 41.00 0.08 4.50 34.1
1 6 51.80 44.10 0.68 6.95 41.1
1 7 52.00 37.40 0.27 4.48 45.6
1 8 54.00 35.60 0.06 5.08 50.7
1 9 43.00 32.00 0.14 0.37 51.0
1 10 46.90 37.00 0.02 2.08 53.1
1 11 53.10 42.80 0.55 6.95 60.1
1 12 60.80 51.80 2.31 15.30 75.4
1 13 60.80 42.80 1.30 10.80 86.2
1 14 55.90 39.00 0.01 6.75 92.9
1 15 50.00 42.80 0.05 5.40 98.3
1 16 48.20 42.80 0.02 4.50 102.8
1 17 50.00 35.60 0.01 3.26 106.1
1 18 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 110.4
1 19 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 115.0
1 20 37.90 28.40 0.03 0.00 115.0
1 21 50.00 39.00 0.01 3.87 118.9
1 22 51.80 35.10 0.00 4.00 122.8
1 23 46.90 26.60 0.00 1.39 124.2
1 24 41.00 35.60 0.50 0.00 124.2
1 25 43.00 30.20 0.11 0.34 124.6
1 26 37.90 33.10 0.59 0.00 124.6
1 27 41.00 33.10 0.11 0.00 124.6
1 28 46.90 35.10 0.10 1.88 126.5
1 29 46.90 33.80 0.08 1.77 128.2
1 30 52.00 41.00 0.20 5.50 133.7
1 31 55.40 46.40 0.30 9.90 143.6
2 1 50.00 46.00 0.65 7.00 150.6
2 2 50.00 39.90 0.96 4.11 154.7
2 3 50.00 33.10 1.20 2.97 157.7
2 4 46.40 35.10 0.00 1.68 159.4
2 5 55.90 39.00 0.00 6.75 166.1
2 6 48.90 30.20 0.06 2.29 168.4
2 7 48.90 37.00 0.00 2.97 171.4
2 8 46.40 36.00 0.00 1.76 173.1
2 9 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 175.1
2 10 46.90 28.40 0.01 1.46 176.5
2 11 42.80 30.20 0.16 0.29 176.8
2 12 30.20 30.00 0.55 0.00 176.8
2 13 34.00 26.60 0.50 0.00 176.8
2 14 41.00 37.00 0.83 0.00 176.8
2 15 55.40 37.40 0.06 6.10 182.9
2 16 52.00 41.00 0.01 5.50 188.4
2 17 51.80 37.00 0.00 4.31 192.7
2 18 45.00 37.40 0.46 1.31 194.0
2 19 51.80 39.00 0.09 4.74 198.8
2 20 51.80 37.00 0.10 4.31 203.1
2 21 53.60 44.60 0.02 8.10 211.2
2 22 53.60 42.10 0.29 6.85 218.0
2 23 51.80 35.10 0.05 4.00 222.0
2 24 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 224.7
2 25 50.00 37.40 0.19 3.54 228.3
2 26 48.90 39.00 0.24 3.34 231.6
2 27 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 236.0
2 28 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 243.5
3 1 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 251.7
3 2 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 258.2
3 3 60.80 30.20 0.00 7.33 265.6 Px
3 4 55.40 35.80 0.00 5.77 271.3 Px Pn
3 5 50.00 44.10 0.19 6.05 277.4
3 6 52.00 37.00 0.14 4.40 281.8
3 7 53.60 37.40 0.25 5.24 287.0
3 8 52.00 35.60 0.06 4.16 291.2
3 9 55.40 37.40 0.09 6.10 297.3
3 10 57.20 35.60 0.01 6.58 303.9
3 11 62.60 32.00 0.00 8.44 312.3
3 12 62.60 32.00 0.00 8.44 320.7
3 13 63.00 32.00 0.00 8.62 329.4
3 14 51.80 39.90 0.17 4.99 334.4
3 15 48.90 28.90 0.01 2.20 336.6
3 16 54.00 28.40 0.00 4.17 340.7
3 17 60.80 30.20 0.00 7.33 348.1
3 18 52.00 37.00 0.20 4.40 352.5
3 19 55.40 42.80 0.11 8.10 360.6
3 20 55.40 41.00 0.10 7.20 367.8
3 21 51.80 39.20 0.11 4.79 372.6
3 22 54.00 35.10 0.06 5.00 377.6
3 23 59.00 30.00 0.00 6.50 384.1
3 24 52.00 39.90 0.06 5.09 389.2
3 25 55.00 37.90 0.00 6.02 395.2
3 26 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 401.5
3 27 64.90 32.00 0.00 9.51 411.0
3 28 52.00 36.00 0.16 4.23 415.2
3 29 55.40 33.10 0.04 5.33 420.5
3 30 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 425.5
3 31 70.00 30.00 0.00 11.52 437.0
4 1 66.20 37.40 0.00 11.35 448.3
4 2 52.00 33.10 0.00 3.82 452.1 Px Pn
4 3 50.00 30.40 0.00 2.73 454.9 Px Pn
4 4 50.10 35.20 0.00 3.25 458.1 Px Pn
4 5 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 467.4
4 6 64.90 30.20 0.00 9.20 476.6
4 7 53.60 37.00 0.04 5.16 481.8
4 8 55.90 36.00 0.32 6.04 487.8
4 9 57.90 30.00 0.05 6.01 493.9
4 10 53.60 35.10 0.02 4.81 498.7
4 11 60.80 28.00 0.00 7.03 505.7
4 12 66.20 39.00 0.00 11.83 517.5
4 13 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 531.7
4 14 69.80 37.00 0.00 13.00 544.7
4 15 75.20 33.80 0.00 14.80 559.5
4 16 78.80 37.90 0.00 17.71 577.2
4 17 84.20 41.00 0.00 21.60 598.8
4 18 82.90 39.20 0.00 20.21 619.1
4 19 75.20 39.20 0.00 16.37 635.4
4 20 75.00 45.00 0.00 19.00 654.4
4 21 77.00 41.00 0.00 18.00 672.4
4 22 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 684.4
4 23 59.00 39.20 0.04 8.33 692.7
4 24 53.60 46.00 0.22 8.80 701.5
4 25 59.00 44.10 0.10 10.55 712.1
4 26 59.00 43.00 0.02 10.00 722.1
4 27 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 734.0
4 28 73.90 37.90 0.00 15.29 749.2
4 29 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 768.2
4 30 70.00 48.20 0.13 18.10 786.3
5 1 60.80 46.40 0.01 12.60 798.9
5 2 64.90 43.00 0.00 12.95 811.9
5 3 63.00 42.80 0.01 11.90 823.8
5 4 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 843.6
5 5 80.60 39.20 0.00 19.06 862.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 6 64.40 44.10 0.09 13.25 875.9
5 7 60.80 39.00 0.03 9.16 885.1
5 8 60.80 34.00 0.00 7.96 893.0
5 9 63.00 46.00 0.03 13.50 906.5
5 10 71.60 37.00 0.00 13.88 920.4
5 11 75.90 39.00 0.00 16.65 937.1
5 12 81.00 42.10 0.00 20.55 957.6 Peak female adult emergence
5 13 80.60 46.40 0.00 22.50 980.1
5 14 81.00 48.90 0.00 23.95 1004.1 Peak egg laying
5 15 81.00 41.00 0.00 20.00 1024.1
5 16 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 1047.3
5 17 64.90 44.60 0.01 13.75 1061.0
5 18 63.00 39.00 0.01 10.25 1071.3
5 19 60.10 35.60 0.02 7.95 1079.2
5 20 62.60 35.10 0.02 9.04 1088.2
5 21 66.00 35.10 0.00 10.67 1098.9
5 22 71.60 37.40 0.00 14.00 1112.9
5 23 66.20 42.80 0.04 13.50 1126.4
5 24 61.00 50.00 0.35 14.50 1140.9
5 25 64.90 51.10 0.00 17.00 1157.9
5 26 73.40 44.10 0.00 17.75 1175.7
5 27 62.60 48.00 0.91 14.30 1190.0
5 28 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 1208.1
5 29 82.90 39.20 0.00 20.21 1228.3
5 30 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 1253.3
5 31 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 1282.3 Peak egg hatch
6 1 97.00 53.60 0.00 34.30 1316.6
6 2 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 1349.1
6 3 84.20 53.10 0.00 27.65 1376.7
6 4 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1399.2
6 5 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1413.6
6 6 64.90 42.10 0.05 12.50 1426.1
6 7 64.90 44.10 0.01 13.50 1439.6
6 8 64.90 44.10 0.00 13.50 1453.1
6 9 68.00 37.40 0.23 12.23 1465.3
6 10 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 1477.9
6 11 66.20 50.00 0.20 17.10 1495.0
6 12 75.20 44.60 0.57 18.90 1513.9
6 13 66.00 60.10 0.52 22.05 1536.0
6 14 73.40 53.60 0.06 22.50 1558.5
6 15 69.80 46.40 0.01 17.10 1575.6
6 16 80.60 44.10 0.00 21.35 1596.9
6 17 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 1622.4
6 18 81.00 46.40 0.00 22.70 1645.1
6 19 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 1670.5
6 20 91.90 53.60 0.00 31.75 1702.3
6 21 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 1736.7
6 22 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 1767.2
6 23 84.00 53.60 0.00 27.80 1795.0
6 24 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 1825.6
6 25 93.90 57.20 0.00 34.55 1860.2
6 26 104.00 64.40 0.00 43.20 1903.4
6 27 111.20 68.00 0.00 48.60 1952.0
6 28 114.80 64.90 0.00 48.85 2000.8
6 29 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 2034.1
6 30 73.90 59.00 0.00 25.45 2059.6
7 1 79.00 60.80 0.00 28.90 2088.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 2 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 2121.4
7 3 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 2153.1
7 4 89.10 55.00 0.00 31.05 2184.2
7 5 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2213.7
7 6 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 2244.9
7 7 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 2270.8
7 8 79.00 51.80 0.00 24.40 2295.2
7 9 91.40 50.00 0.00 29.70 2324.9
7 10 91.00 55.40 0.00 32.20 2357.1
7 11 89.60 51.10 0.00 29.35 2386.4
7 12 89.60 53.10 0.00 30.35 2416.8
7 13 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 2448.0
7 14 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2475.0
7 15 79.00 51.80 0.00 24.40 2499.4
7 16 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 2523.7
7 17 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2551.0
7 18 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 2579.5
7 19 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2609.1
7 20 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 2634.5
7 21 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2657.0
7 22 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 2680.4
7 23 87.80 48.20 0.00 27.00 2707.4
7 24 93.20 53.60 0.00 32.40 2739.8
7 25 91.90 55.40 0.00 32.65 2772.5
7 26 91.90 53.60 0.00 31.75 2804.2
7 27 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2835.7
7 28 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 2869.7
7 29 99.00 57.20 0.00 37.10 2906.8
7 30 98.10 59.00 0.00 37.55 2944.4
7 31 82.90 63.00 0.01 31.95 2976.3
8 1 93.90 57.20 0.00 34.55 3010.9
8 2 93.90 57.00 0.00 34.45 3045.3
8 3 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 3078.6
8 4 98.60 51.80 0.00 34.20 3112.8
8 5 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 3142.4
8 6 82.90 62.10 0.00 31.50 3173.9
8 7 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 3202.6
8 8 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 3225.2
8 9 87.10 48.00 0.00 26.55 3251.8
8 10 93.90 57.00 0.00 34.45 3286.2
8 11 102.20 60.80 0.00 40.50 3326.7
8 12 102.90 62.60 0.00 41.75 3368.5
8 13 97.00 64.40 0.00 39.70 3408.2
8 14 95.00 62.10 0.00 37.55 3445.7
8 15 95.00 60.80 0.00 36.90 3482.6
8 16 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 3511.2
8 17 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 3532.8
8 18 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 3558.0
8 19 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 3583.4
8 20 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 3605.9
8 21 72.00 53.60 0.01 21.80 3627.7
8 22 71.60 46.90 0.00 18.25 3646.0
8 23 75.90 39.20 0.00 16.72 3662.7
8 24 86.00 44.10 0.00 24.05 3686.8
8 25 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 3711.0
8 26 81.00 55.90 0.00 27.45 3738.4
8 27 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 3763.1
8 28 90.00 46.40 0.00 27.20 3790.3
8 29 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 3820.9
8 30 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 3840.9
8 31 73.90 42.10 0.00 17.00 3857.9
9 1 80.10 41.00 0.00 19.55 3877.4
9 2 86.00 44.10 0.00 24.05 3901.5
9 3 84.90 44.60 0.00 23.75 3925.2
9 4 88.00 48.20 0.00 27.10 3952.3
9 5 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 3981.3
9 6 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 4012.7
9 7 87.10 48.00 0.00 26.55 4039.2
9 8 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 4070.0
9 9 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 4098.6
9 10 72.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 4119.6
9 11 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 4143.8
9 12 77.00 54.00 0.00 24.50 4168.3
9 13 77.00 44.60 0.00 19.80 4188.1
9 14 84.90 44.10 0.00 23.50 4211.6
9 15 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 4231.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-5-21 | 863 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-12-21 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-14-21 | 1004 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-31-21 | 1282 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-1-21 | 2088 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2347679)
