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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 53.60 37.40 0.15 5.24 5.2
1 4 51.80 42.10 0.91 5.95 11.2
1 5 48.90 35.10 0.08 2.72 13.9
1 6 45.00 33.10 0.40 1.02 14.9
1 7 41.00 30.00 0.10 0.00 14.9
1 8 45.00 39.20 0.21 1.54 16.5
1 9 52.00 39.00 0.21 4.84 21.3
1 10 57.20 44.10 0.08 9.65 31.0
1 11 52.00 42.10 0.00 6.05 37.0
1 12 54.00 35.60 0.00 5.08 42.1
1 13 54.00 35.60 0.00 5.08 47.2
1 14 51.80 35.10 0.00 4.00 51.2
1 15 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 52.1
1 16 44.60 35.60 0.12 1.01 53.1
1 17 53.60 37.40 0.60 5.24 58.3
1 18 46.40 41.00 1.11 2.70 61.0
1 19 53.60 42.80 0.02 7.20 68.2
1 20 44.60 34.00 0.55 0.92 69.2
1 21 48.90 33.80 0.00 2.58 71.7
1 22 48.20 37.40 0.24 2.72 74.5
1 23 53.60 41.00 0.38 6.30 80.8
1 24 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 84.4
1 25 53.10 30.20 0.00 3.98 88.3
1 26 39.90 28.00 0.00 0.00 88.3
1 27 39.90 35.60 0.00 0.00 88.3
1 28 54.00 37.00 0.00 5.34 93.7
1 29 55.40 33.10 0.00 5.33 99.0
1 30 54.00 26.10 0.00 3.98 103.0
1 31 50.00 24.80 0.01 2.38 105.4
2 1 50.00 33.80 0.14 3.04 108.4
2 2 54.00 42.10 0.06 7.05 115.5
2 3 48.00 35.10 0.07 2.34 117.8
2 4 39.20 32.00 0.02 0.00 117.8
2 5 36.00 24.80 0.14 0.00 117.8
2 6 37.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 117.8
2 7 39.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 117.8
2 8 39.90 28.00 0.39 0.00 117.8
2 9 37.90 28.40 0.25 0.00 117.8
2 10 39.90 23.00 0.26 0.00 117.8
2 11 46.40 37.40 1.01 1.91 119.7
2 12 46.40 37.40 0.97 1.91 121.6
2 13 46.40 37.00 0.03 1.86 123.5
2 14 43.00 37.00 0.20 0.51 124.0
2 15 46.90 37.00 0.09 2.08 126.1
2 16 45.00 33.10 0.08 1.02 127.1
2 17 43.00 28.00 0.00 0.31 127.4
2 18 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.69 128.1
2 19 44.60 35.60 0.13 1.01 129.1
2 20 46.40 30.00 0.41 1.36 130.5
2 21 48.20 26.10 0.00 1.81 132.3
2 22 45.00 27.00 0.15 0.82 133.1
2 23 48.90 32.00 0.43 2.42 135.5
2 24 43.00 33.10 0.18 0.39 135.9
2 25 39.20 28.40 0.13 0.00 135.9
2 26 41.00 26.10 0.01 0.00 135.9
2 27 37.40 26.60 0.02 0.00 135.9
2 28 41.00 32.00 0.07 0.00 135.9
3 1 51.80 34.00 0.08 3.85 139.7
3 2 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 142.4
3 3 45.00 27.00 0.00 0.82 143.3
3 4 46.40 24.80 0.00 1.18 144.4
3 5 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 145.7
3 6 37.40 32.00 0.12 0.00 145.7
3 7 46.00 30.00 0.07 1.23 146.9
3 8 44.60 28.00 0.18 0.73 147.6
3 9 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 150.4
3 10 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 154.5
3 11 57.20 24.80 0.31 5.16 159.7
3 12 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 164.0
3 13 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 168.2
3 14 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 173.9
3 15 63.00 32.00 0.00 8.62 182.5
3 16 62.60 32.00 0.00 8.44 191.0
3 17 71.60 32.00 0.00 12.67 203.7
3 18 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 222.5
3 19 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 243.2
3 20 73.90 48.90 0.00 20.40 263.6
3 21 55.90 42.10 0.01 8.00 271.6
3 22 54.00 33.80 0.11 4.80 276.3
3 23 57.90 35.60 0.06 6.91 283.3
3 24 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 291.9
3 25 51.80 41.00 0.08 5.40 297.3
3 26 59.00 35.10 0.00 7.33 304.6
3 27 54.00 41.00 0.31 6.50 311.1
3 28 62.60 33.80 0.56 8.77 319.9
3 29 61.00 37.00 0.00 8.70 328.6
3 30 66.90 33.80 0.00 10.81 339.4
3 31 66.20 35.10 0.00 10.76 350.1
4 1 61.00 46.40 0.24 12.70 362.8
4 2 60.80 50.00 0.23 14.40 377.2
4 3 59.00 44.10 0.02 10.55 387.8
4 4 57.90 44.60 0.27 10.25 398.0
4 5 57.20 42.10 0.50 8.65 406.7
4 6 57.90 42.80 1.30 9.35 416.0
4 7 55.00 46.90 0.47 9.95 426.0
4 8 59.00 46.00 0.13 11.50 437.5
4 9 55.40 44.60 0.08 9.00 446.5
4 10 53.60 42.80 0.06 7.20 453.7
4 11 54.00 48.00 0.02 10.00 463.7
4 12 61.00 42.80 0.02 10.90 474.6
4 13 51.80 41.00 0.20 5.40 480.0
4 14 51.80 39.00 0.04 4.74 484.7
4 15 50.00 35.10 0.20 3.20 487.9
4 16 57.90 44.10 0.07 10.00 497.9
4 17 64.40 48.00 0.10 15.20 513.1
4 18 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 532.0
4 19 62.60 48.20 0.24 14.40 546.4
4 20 63.00 44.10 0.11 12.55 559.0
4 21 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 571.0
4 22 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 582.2
4 23 66.00 48.20 0.00 16.10 598.3
4 24 66.90 39.00 0.00 12.18 610.4
4 25 72.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 625.9
4 26 68.00 42.10 0.00 14.05 640.0
4 27 59.00 35.10 0.00 7.33 647.3
4 28 66.20 32.00 0.00 10.12 657.4
4 29 66.90 44.10 0.00 14.50 671.9
4 30 70.00 39.20 0.00 13.79 685.7
5 1 66.90 33.80 0.00 10.81 696.5
5 2 64.40 35.10 0.00 9.90 706.4
5 3 69.80 35.60 0.00 12.63 719.1
5 4 75.20 39.20 0.00 16.37 735.4
5 5 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 754.3
5 6 82.40 39.20 0.00 19.96 774.3
5 7 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 792.9
5 8 78.80 42.10 0.00 19.45 812.4
5 9 84.20 46.00 0.00 24.10 836.5
5 10 86.00 42.80 0.00 23.40 859.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 11 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 882.4
5 12 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 899.4
5 13 66.90 44.10 0.00 14.50 913.9
5 14 61.00 48.00 0.17 13.50 927.4
5 15 61.00 46.00 0.08 12.50 939.9
5 16 62.60 50.00 0.06 15.30 955.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 17 61.00 46.00 0.02 12.50 967.7
5 18 70.00 51.10 1.59 19.55 987.3
5 19 63.00 50.00 0.01 15.50 1002.8 Peak egg laying
5 20 64.90 46.40 0.20 14.65 1017.4
5 21 66.90 48.20 0.35 16.55 1034.0
5 22 72.00 48.00 0.05 19.00 1053.0
5 23 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 1072.1
5 24 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1088.3
5 25 55.90 46.00 0.32 9.95 1098.3
5 26 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 1117.4
5 27 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1136.0
5 28 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1154.9
5 29 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 1175.4
5 30 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1198.7
5 31 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 1225.3
6 1 82.90 48.90 0.00 24.90 1250.2
6 2 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1274.5 Peak egg hatch
6 3 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1294.3
6 4 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 1312.9
6 5 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 1330.3
6 6 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 1345.1
6 7 64.90 44.60 0.01 13.75 1358.8
6 8 68.00 42.10 0.00 14.05 1372.9
6 9 82.90 41.00 0.00 20.95 1393.8
6 10 86.00 46.90 0.00 25.45 1419.3
6 11 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 1453.3
6 12 96.10 60.10 0.00 37.10 1490.4
6 13 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 1518.4
6 14 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 1538.9
6 15 82.00 48.90 0.00 24.45 1563.3
6 16 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 1588.8
6 17 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 1615.4
6 18 75.90 48.90 0.00 21.40 1636.8
6 19 70.00 43.00 0.00 15.50 1652.3
6 20 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1669.4
6 21 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1690.4
6 22 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 1710.0
6 23 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1728.0
6 24 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 1747.1
6 25 73.40 50.00 0.05 20.70 1767.8
6 26 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1788.5
6 27 66.20 51.10 0.51 17.65 1806.2
6 28 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1827.1
6 29 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 1850.7
6 30 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 1876.8
7 1 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1901.8
7 2 71.10 54.00 0.00 21.55 1923.4
7 3 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 1945.6
7 4 82.40 51.10 0.00 25.75 1971.4
7 5 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1996.4
7 6 69.80 54.00 0.00 20.90 2017.3
7 7 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2040.7
7 8 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 2066.5
7 9 73.00 57.00 0.42 24.00 2090.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 10 75.20 62.10 0.27 27.65 2118.2
7 11 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 2148.4
7 12 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2175.7
7 13 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 2205.9
7 14 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 2233.9
7 15 75.00 60.80 0.04 26.90 2260.8
7 16 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2287.8
7 17 73.90 55.40 0.00 23.65 2311.5
7 18 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 2336.5
7 19 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 2356.0
7 20 87.80 46.40 0.00 26.10 2382.1
7 21 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 2410.7
7 22 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2437.7
7 23 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 2461.6
7 24 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 2485.0
7 25 91.40 46.40 0.00 27.90 2512.9
7 26 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 2544.4
7 27 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2572.4
7 28 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 2598.9
7 29 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 2626.8
7 30 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 2652.8
7 31 84.20 53.10 0.00 27.65 2680.5
8 1 88.00 51.80 0.00 28.90 2709.4
8 2 79.00 62.10 0.01 29.55 2738.9
8 3 89.60 61.00 0.00 34.30 2773.2
8 4 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 2805.7
8 5 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 2838.3
8 6 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 2867.2
8 7 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2893.3
8 8 72.00 60.10 0.01 25.05 2918.4
8 9 79.00 60.80 0.00 28.90 2947.3
8 10 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2969.8
8 11 78.10 53.10 0.00 24.60 2994.4
8 12 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 3020.8
8 13 90.00 51.80 0.00 29.90 3050.7
8 14 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 3081.4
8 15 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 3108.8
8 16 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 3131.4
8 17 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 3153.2
8 18 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 3180.0
8 19 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 3207.2
8 20 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 3233.2
8 21 72.00 51.10 0.01 20.55 3253.8
8 22 78.80 54.00 0.00 25.40 3279.2
8 23 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 3305.2
8 24 82.40 48.90 0.00 24.65 3329.8
8 25 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 3354.3
8 26 88.00 46.40 0.00 26.20 3380.5
8 27 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 3421.0
8 28 96.80 53.10 0.00 33.95 3455.0
8 29 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 3487.4
8 30 80.10 60.10 0.00 29.10 3516.5
8 31 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 3543.1
9 1 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 3571.3
9 2 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3600.1
9 3 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 3627.1
9 4 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 3652.5
9 5 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 3684.0
9 6 82.40 60.80 0.00 30.60 3714.6
9 7 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 3738.1
9 8 69.80 59.00 0.59 23.40 3761.5
9 9 66.90 55.40 0.10 20.15 3781.7
9 10 71.10 51.80 0.34 20.45 3802.1
9 11 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 3824.0
9 12 80.60 48.20 0.05 23.40 3847.4
9 13 77.00 57.00 0.38 26.00 3873.4
9 14 75.90 53.60 0.01 23.75 3897.1
9 15 62.60 55.00 0.49 17.80 3914.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-10-19 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-16-19 | 955 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-19-19 | 1003 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-2-19 | 1275 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-9-19 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2042720)
