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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 1.9 * START *
1 2 45.00 35.60 0.00 1.16 3.1
1 3 46.90 35.60 0.00 1.93 5.0
1 4 48.90 35.60 0.10 2.78 7.8
1 5 53.60 41.00 0.27 6.30 14.1
1 6 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 18.4
1 7 45.00 37.40 0.04 1.31 19.7
1 8 46.90 41.00 0.43 2.95 22.7
1 9 51.80 42.80 0.12 6.30 29.0
1 10 48.90 42.10 0.11 4.50 33.5
1 11 55.90 48.00 1.01 10.95 44.4
1 12 53.60 48.20 0.86 9.90 54.3
1 13 48.20 46.40 0.00 6.30 60.6
1 14 59.30 47.70 0.00 12.50 73.1 Px Pn
1 15 57.90 43.00 0.15 9.45 82.6
1 16 55.90 42.10 0.21 8.00 90.6
1 17 55.90 39.90 0.37 7.02 97.6
1 18 51.80 42.80 0.43 6.30 103.9
1 19 48.20 41.00 0.05 3.60 107.5
1 20 48.90 39.20 0.03 3.39 110.9
1 21 50.00 41.00 0.15 4.50 115.4
1 22 51.80 37.00 0.23 4.31 119.7
1 23 51.80 39.20 0.97 4.79 124.5
1 24 51.80 39.20 0.39 4.79 129.3
1 25 48.20 37.40 0.49 2.72 132.0
1 26 46.90 35.60 0.23 1.93 133.9
1 27 54.00 42.80 0.06 7.40 141.3
1 28 61.00 46.00 0.00 12.50 153.8
1 29 54.00 44.60 0.54 8.30 162.1
1 30 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 165.7
1 31 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 168.4
2 1 50.00 41.00 0.11 4.50 172.9
2 2 57.90 46.40 0.02 11.15 184.0
2 3 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 195.2
2 4 61.00 48.00 0.00 13.50 208.7
2 5 59.00 42.10 0.00 9.55 218.2
2 6 54.00 35.10 0.00 5.00 223.2
2 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 228.1
2 8 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 234.2
2 9 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 239.1
2 10 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 241.8
2 11 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 243.5
2 12 48.90 28.00 0.00 2.15 245.6
2 13 48.90 24.10 0.09 1.96 247.6
2 14 50.00 36.00 0.13 3.32 250.9
2 15 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 254.1
2 16 52.00 42.10 0.12 6.05 260.2
2 17 52.00 39.00 0.15 4.84 265.0
2 18 44.10 32.00 0.20 0.68 265.7
2 19 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 265.7
2 20 39.20 28.00 0.12 0.00 265.7
2 21 39.20 30.00 0.08 0.00 265.7
2 22 39.90 28.00 0.72 0.00 265.7
2 23 39.90 21.20 0.09 0.00 265.7
2 24 50.00 37.40 0.04 3.54 269.2
2 25 46.90 32.00 0.30 1.65 270.9
2 26 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 272.4
2 27 46.90 32.00 0.04 1.65 274.1
2 28 46.90 41.00 0.24 2.95 277.0
3 1 46.90 33.80 0.11 1.77 278.8
3 2 50.00 33.80 0.01 3.04 281.8
3 3 52.00 33.10 0.10 3.82 285.7
3 4 51.80 26.60 0.00 3.15 288.8
3 5 54.00 35.60 0.00 5.08 293.9
3 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 299.0
3 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 303.9
3 8 55.40 37.40 0.35 6.10 310.0
3 9 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 315.2
3 10 60.10 33.10 0.01 7.47 322.7
3 11 68.00 33.80 0.00 11.33 334.0
3 12 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 349.8
3 13 57.20 45.00 0.62 10.10 359.9
3 14 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 364.8
3 15 51.80 33.10 0.14 3.74 368.6
3 16 53.60 39.20 0.03 5.67 374.3
3 17 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 377.8
3 18 51.80 34.00 0.11 3.85 381.6
3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 387.4
3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 394.5
3 21 51.80 32.00 0.50 3.61 398.1
3 22 48.90 36.00 0.64 2.83 400.9
3 23 42.80 33.80 5.53 0.35 401.3
3 24 42.80 33.10 0.13 0.34 401.6
3 25 52.00 35.10 0.01 4.09 405.7
3 26 48.90 35.10 0.01 2.72 408.4
3 27 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 415.6
3 28 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 422.8
3 29 60.10 33.10 0.00 7.47 430.3
3 30 60.80 39.00 0.00 9.16 439.5
3 31 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 448.7
4 1 50.00 33.10 0.06 2.97 451.7
4 2 52.00 33.10 0.01 3.82 455.5
4 3 52.00 28.40 0.00 3.36 458.9
4 4 61.00 43.00 0.00 11.00 469.9
4 5 53.60 46.00 0.24 8.80 478.7
4 6 68.00 51.10 0.10 18.55 497.2
4 7 60.80 46.40 1.71 12.60 509.8
4 8 52.00 43.00 0.54 6.50 516.3
4 9 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 527.5
4 10 57.90 46.00 0.05 10.95 538.5
4 11 54.00 39.20 0.26 5.87 544.3
4 12 51.80 37.40 0.57 4.38 548.7
4 13 54.00 44.10 0.12 8.05 556.8
4 14 57.20 46.90 0.17 11.05 567.8
4 15 48.20 42.10 0.54 4.15 572.0
4 16 48.20 37.90 0.18 2.80 574.8
4 17 53.60 37.40 0.08 5.24 580.0
4 18 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 589.3
4 19 66.20 35.10 0.00 10.76 600.1
4 20 64.40 33.10 0.00 9.48 609.6
4 21 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 619.6
4 22 64.40 33.80 0.00 9.62 629.2
4 23 73.90 42.10 0.00 17.00 646.2
4 24 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 670.4
4 25 84.00 44.60 0.00 23.30 693.7
4 26 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 712.4
4 27 53.60 46.00 0.15 8.80 721.2
4 28 60.80 42.10 0.10 10.45 731.6
4 29 61.00 44.60 0.05 11.80 743.4
4 30 57.20 44.10 0.02 9.65 753.1
5 1 57.20 44.10 0.00 9.65 762.7
5 2 73.40 37.00 0.00 14.77 777.5
5 3 72.00 42.80 0.00 16.40 793.9
5 4 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 808.1
5 5 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 827.8
5 6 66.90 46.90 0.07 15.90 843.7
5 7 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 862.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 8 73.00 44.10 0.05 17.55 880.2
5 9 64.90 48.20 0.00 15.55 895.7
5 10 63.00 44.60 0.08 12.80 908.5
5 11 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 924.7
5 12 80.60 42.10 0.00 20.35 945.1
5 13 87.80 46.40 0.00 26.10 971.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 14 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 995.4
5 15 69.80 48.00 0.00 17.90 1013.3 Peak egg laying
5 16 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 1031.3
5 17 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1050.2
5 18 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1067.3
5 19 69.10 48.20 0.00 17.65 1084.9
5 20 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1101.9
5 21 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 1119.9
5 22 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 1143.4
5 23 75.90 51.80 0.00 22.85 1166.2
5 24 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1188.7
5 25 69.80 46.90 0.00 17.35 1206.1
5 26 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1219.6
5 27 75.90 42.80 0.00 18.35 1237.9
5 28 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1255.9
5 29 68.00 42.10 0.00 14.05 1270.0
5 30 68.00 35.10 0.00 11.63 1281.6 Peak egg hatch
5 31 66.00 45.00 0.01 14.50 1296.1
6 1 71.60 39.00 0.00 14.51 1310.6
6 2 81.00 44.10 0.00 21.55 1332.2
6 3 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1352.0
6 4 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1370.0
6 5 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 1385.3
6 6 75.90 42.80 0.00 18.35 1403.6
6 7 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1422.6
6 8 64.90 48.00 0.45 15.45 1438.1
6 9 64.90 46.00 0.04 14.45 1452.5
6 10 55.90 44.60 0.42 9.25 1461.8
6 11 71.60 48.20 0.11 18.90 1480.7
6 12 78.80 39.20 0.00 18.16 1498.8
6 13 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1515.8
6 14 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1531.5
6 15 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1551.3
6 16 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 1573.8
6 17 90.00 48.20 0.00 28.10 1601.9
6 18 81.00 48.90 0.00 23.95 1625.8
6 19 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 1654.8
6 20 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1684.5
6 21 73.40 57.00 0.00 24.20 1708.7
6 22 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 1734.3
6 23 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1755.0
6 24 89.60 51.10 0.03 29.35 1784.3
6 25 71.10 48.90 0.11 19.00 1803.3
6 26 78.00 44.60 0.00 20.30 1823.6 Px
6 27 79.10 50.80 0.00 23.95 1847.6 Px Pn
6 28 77.70 59.60 0.00 27.65 1875.2 Px Pn
6 29 80.10 55.40 0.00 26.75 1902.0
6 30 82.40 51.10 0.00 25.75 1927.7
7 1 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 1951.2
7 2 71.60 46.00 0.00 17.80 1969.0
7 3 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 1987.6
7 4 75.90 52.00 0.02 22.95 2010.5
7 5 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 2035.7
7 6 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2059.1
7 7 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 2082.7 Peak in density large larvae
7 8 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 2107.9
7 9 69.80 48.20 0.01 18.00 2125.9
7 10 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 2151.9
7 11 89.60 48.20 0.00 27.90 2179.8
7 12 97.00 55.40 0.00 35.20 2215.0
7 13 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 2248.3
7 14 93.20 50.00 0.00 30.60 2278.9
7 15 98.10 55.00 0.00 35.55 2314.5
7 16 97.00 57.00 0.00 36.00 2350.5
7 17 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2381.8
7 18 87.10 53.10 0.00 29.10 2410.9
7 19 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 2432.5
7 20 81.00 42.80 0.00 20.90 2453.4
7 21 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 2475.9
7 22 91.90 46.40 0.00 28.15 2504.0
7 23 93.90 55.00 0.00 33.45 2537.5
7 24 96.80 53.10 0.00 33.95 2571.4
7 25 97.00 53.60 0.00 34.30 2605.7
7 26 95.00 53.60 0.00 33.30 2639.0
7 27 89.60 53.60 0.00 30.60 2669.6
7 28 89.60 53.10 0.00 30.35 2700.0
7 29 98.10 55.40 0.00 35.75 2735.7
7 30 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2767.2
7 31 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 2796.2
8 1 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 2824.8
8 2 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 2848.2
8 3 75.90 54.00 0.00 23.95 2872.2
8 4 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2899.2
8 5 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 2929.8
8 6 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 2960.3
8 7 93.90 55.40 0.00 33.65 2993.9
8 8 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 3027.4
8 9 95.00 55.40 0.00 34.20 3061.6
8 10 88.00 57.90 0.00 31.95 3093.5
8 11 75.90 55.40 0.08 24.65 3118.2
8 12 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 3143.1
8 13 93.00 50.00 0.00 30.50 3173.6
8 14 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 3205.8
8 15 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 3235.3
8 16 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 3263.0
8 17 82.00 44.10 0.00 22.05 3285.0
8 18 89.60 46.40 0.00 27.00 3312.0
8 19 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 3340.6
8 20 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 3367.3
8 21 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 3400.6
8 22 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 3430.3
8 23 71.60 51.10 0.00 20.35 3450.7
8 24 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 3468.7
8 25 73.40 41.00 0.00 16.20 3484.9
8 26 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3505.6
8 27 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 3534.0
8 28 89.60 48.20 0.00 27.90 3561.9
8 29 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 3587.0
8 30 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 3609.5
8 31 78.10 53.10 0.00 24.60 3634.1
9 1 75.90 43.00 0.00 18.45 3652.6
9 2 84.20 44.10 0.00 23.15 3675.7
9 3 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 3698.2
9 4 84.20 39.20 0.00 20.85 3719.1
9 5 87.80 46.40 0.00 26.10 3745.2
9 6 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 3771.6
9 7 82.40 44.10 0.01 22.25 3793.9
9 8 75.90 53.10 0.02 23.50 3817.4
9 9 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 3838.8
9 10 73.90 54.00 0.00 22.95 3861.7
9 11 64.40 48.20 0.30 15.30 3877.0
9 12 66.20 46.00 0.54 15.10 3892.1
9 13 64.90 46.00 0.08 14.45 3906.6
9 14 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 3921.9
9 15 66.90 46.00 0.08 15.45 3937.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-7-18 | 863 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-13-18 | 971 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-15-18 | 1013 | Peak egg laying |
5-30-18 | 1282 | Peak egg hatch |
7-7-18 | 2083 | Peak in density large larvae |