Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.80 32.00 0.05 0.32 0.3 * START * 1 2 34.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 0.3 1 3 37.40 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 4 37.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 5 37.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 6 35.10 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 7 30.20 24.10 0.08 0.00 0.3 1 8 34.00 28.90 0.58 0.00 0.3 1 9 43.00 33.00 0.50 0.39 0.7 1 10 39.90 33.00 0.41 0.00 0.7 1 11 34.00 28.40 0.01 0.00 0.7 1 12 34.00 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 13 30.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 14 33.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 15 34.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 16 34.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 17 42.80 24.10 0.96 0.24 0.9 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.62 9.00 9.9 1 19 52.00 42.10 0.01 6.05 16.0 1 20 48.20 39.20 0.09 3.05 19.0 1 21 50.00 39.00 0.27 3.87 22.9 1 22 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 26.5 1 23 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 31.0 1 24 46.90 26.60 0.00 1.39 32.4 1 25 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 34.1 1 26 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 36.8 1 27 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 38.7 1 28 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 40.1 1 29 41.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 40.1 1 30 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 43.4 1 31 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 46.1 2 1 43.00 35.10 0.00 0.44 46.6 2 2 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 48.1 2 3 38.00 30.00 0.77 0.00 48.1 2 4 53.10 37.00 0.96 4.92 53.0 2 5 46.40 35.60 2.23 1.72 54.7 2 6 45.00 33.80 0.24 1.06 55.8 2 7 41.00 33.80 0.25 0.00 55.8 2 8 44.60 39.00 1.54 1.33 57.1 2 9 61.00 42.00 0.35 10.50 67.6 2 10 50.00 39.00 0.06 3.87 71.5 2 11 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 75.4 2 12 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 79.3 2 13 59.00 33.10 0.00 6.96 86.3 2 14 53.60 30.20 0.18 4.19 90.5 2 15 57.90 44.60 1.48 10.25 100.7 2 16 55.90 44.10 1.09 9.00 109.7 2 17 57.20 42.80 0.01 9.00 118.7 2 18 54.00 42.10 0.32 7.05 125.8 2 19 48.90 39.20 0.29 3.39 129.1 2 20 51.80 42.10 0.91 5.95 135.1 2 21 48.20 37.40 0.36 2.72 137.8 2 22 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 139.3 2 23 46.90 30.20 0.01 1.55 140.9 2 24 42.80 30.20 0.02 0.29 141.2 2 25 48.90 30.20 0.00 2.29 143.5 2 26 41.00 37.00 0.22 0.00 143.5 2 27 45.00 35.10 0.08 1.13 144.6 2 28 51.10 33.80 0.04 3.52 148.1 3 1 53.10 37.90 0.17 5.11 153.2 3 2 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 157.5 3 3 50.00 42.10 0.37 5.05 162.6 3 4 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 164.7 3 5 45.00 33.80 0.28 1.06 165.8 3 6 45.00 33.10 0.30 1.02 166.8 3 7 51.80 39.00 0.30 4.74 171.5 3 8 50.00 44.10 0.17 6.05 177.6 3 9 59.00 44.60 0.62 10.80 188.4 3 10 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 200.4 3 11 57.20 39.90 0.35 7.67 208.1 3 12 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 220.0 3 13 57.20 50.00 0.38 12.60 232.6 3 14 59.00 53.10 0.95 15.05 247.7 3 15 57.20 44.60 0.44 9.90 257.6 3 16 55.00 37.00 0.00 5.82 263.4 3 17 46.90 37.00 0.35 2.08 265.5 3 18 57.20 35.10 0.26 6.48 271.9 3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 277.7 3 20 50.00 42.10 0.18 5.05 282.7 3 21 62.10 45.00 0.23 12.55 295.3 3 22 54.00 39.90 0.01 6.08 301.4 3 23 55.90 37.40 0.38 6.34 307.7 3 24 55.40 42.10 0.37 7.75 315.4 3 25 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 320.3 3 26 53.60 44.10 3.61 7.85 328.2 3 27 55.40 42.10 0.13 7.75 335.9 3 28 60.80 46.00 0.20 12.40 348.3 3 29 60.80 42.80 0.06 10.80 359.1 3 30 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 366.4 3 31 57.90 35.10 0.00 6.81 373.2 4 1 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 385.2 4 2 57.20 35.10 0.00 6.48 391.7 4 3 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 397.5 4 4 58.70 38.60 0.00 8.01 405.5 Hx Hn 4 5 55.90 44.10 0.06 9.00 414.5 4 6 64.90 44.60 0.19 13.75 428.2 4 7 55.40 42.10 0.33 7.75 436.0 4 8 53.60 37.40 0.07 5.24 441.2 4 9 55.90 37.40 0.14 6.34 447.5 4 10 54.00 39.20 0.11 5.87 453.4 4 11 57.20 37.40 0.63 6.96 460.4 4 12 60.80 44.10 0.28 11.45 471.8 4 13 52.00 42.10 0.04 6.05 477.9 4 14 55.40 39.20 0.06 6.56 484.4 4 15 60.80 34.00 0.00 7.96 492.4 4 16 66.20 44.60 0.04 14.40 506.8 4 17 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 518.3 4 18 63.00 44.60 0.12 12.80 531.1 4 19 54.00 42.10 0.47 7.05 538.1 4 20 59.00 41.00 0.16 9.00 547.1 4 21 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 560.2 4 22 62.60 46.00 0.06 13.30 573.5 4 23 55.90 46.40 0.27 10.15 583.7 4 24 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 595.2 4 25 54.00 44.10 0.51 8.05 603.2 4 26 59.00 42.80 0.27 9.90 613.1 4 27 55.90 39.00 0.07 6.75 619.9 4 28 60.10 35.10 0.00 7.85 627.7 4 29 64.40 37.00 0.13 10.36 638.1 4 30 60.80 41.00 0.84 9.90 648.0 5 1 55.40 37.40 0.01 6.10 654.1 5 2 66.20 51.10 0.03 17.65 671.7 5 3 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 699.7 5 4 82.40 57.00 0.20 28.70 728.4 5 5 59.00 50.00 0.13 13.50 741.9 5 6 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 752.7 5 7 66.90 37.00 0.00 11.58 764.3 5 8 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 780.0 5 9 73.90 42.80 0.00 17.35 797.3 5 10 73.40 46.00 0.09 18.70 816.0 5 11 57.20 50.00 3.69 12.60 828.6 5 12 55.40 44.60 0.11 9.00 837.6 5 13 55.40 42.10 0.43 7.75 845.4 5 14 61.00 44.10 0.13 11.55 856.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 15 59.00 39.20 0.40 8.33 865.3 5 16 57.20 48.00 1.93 11.60 876.9 5 17 60.80 48.00 0.00 13.40 890.3 5 18 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 904.0 5 19 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 925.6 5 20 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 945.4 5 21 84.20 46.90 0.00 24.55 969.9 peak female adult emergence 5 22 91.40 55.00 0.00 32.20 1002.1 peak egg laying 5 23 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 1029.1
DD accumulation on 5-23-17: 1029QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 21 days behind 2015 ok
 4 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KMMV data
  5 24  60.00 40.90  0.00   9.45   1038.6  0.001_2.62%_precip.    
  5 25  72.60 43.50  0.00  17.05   1055.6  0.00_8.78%_precip.    
  5 26  80.60 45.50  0.00  22.05   1077.7  0.00_13.34%_precip.    
  5 27  84.00 49.10  0.00  25.55   1103.2  0.00_16.56%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KMMV 2006-2015
  5 28  65.60 47.30  0.07  15.45   1118.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  67.40 47.90  0.08  16.65   1135.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  71.10 48.00  0.00  18.55   1153.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  74.80 48.90  0.05  20.85   1174.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  73.70 50.20  0.05  20.95   1195.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.60 49.70  0.11  19.15   1214.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.60 49.30  0.10  18.95   1233.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  72.60 49.10  0.10  19.85   1253.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  73.50 49.60  0.12  20.55   1274.2  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6  6  72.10 49.10  0.04  19.60   1293.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.90 49.20  0.08  19.55   1313.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  71.10 49.70  0.03  19.40   1332.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  72.90 48.50  0.02  19.70   1352.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.60 48.30  0.05  17.95   1370.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  69.40 47.90  0.01  17.65   1388.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  71.40 48.40  0.02  18.90   1406.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  71.50 49.00  0.08  19.25   1426.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  69.10 48.70  0.03  17.90   1444.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  70.50 47.90  0.00  18.20   1462.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.80 48.40  0.02  19.60   1481.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  71.80 48.40  0.00  19.10   1501.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  70.80 49.20  0.00  19.00   1520.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  71.10 49.20  0.01  19.15   1539.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  72.50 49.40  0.02  19.95   1559.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  74.50 49.70  0.00  21.10   1580.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.90 49.70  0.00  21.80   1602.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  74.00 48.80  0.02  20.40   1622.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  75.50 49.80  0.03  21.65   1644.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  76.20 51.00  0.03  22.60   1666.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  77.20 52.50  0.03  23.85   1690.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  80.10 53.20  0.04  25.65   1716.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  81.70 53.60  0.02  26.65   1742.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.30 54.60  0.03  25.95   1768.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  78.30 52.90  0.01  24.60   1793.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  82.00 52.00  0.01  26.00   1819.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  84.50 53.40  0.01  27.95   1847.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  84.40 53.50  0.00  27.95   1875.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  82.20 53.00  0.00  26.60   1901.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.80 52.60  0.00  26.20   1928.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  80.00 52.80  0.00  25.40   1953.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  82.50 51.90  0.01  26.20   1979.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  84.10 53.20  0.00  27.65   2007.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  86.30 53.60  0.00  28.95   2036.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  86.60 54.50  0.00  29.55   2065.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  84.50 53.90  0.00  28.20   2094.0  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 12  81.70 53.80  0.00  26.75   2120.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.80 54.80  0.04  26.30   2147.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  79.90 53.50  0.01  25.70   2172.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  85.10 53.80  0.00  28.45   2201.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  85.00 54.00  0.02  28.50   2229.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  83.30 54.20  0.01  27.75   2257.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  79.80 53.40  0.05  25.60   2283.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  80.40 52.60  0.01  25.50   2308.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  82.70 53.70  0.00  27.20   2335.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.90 53.90  0.01  26.90   2362.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.80 54.10  0.00  27.45   2390.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.30  0.02  26.60   2416.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  83.40 54.20  0.04  27.80   2444.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.00 53.20  0.00  28.60   2473.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.60 53.90  0.00  28.25   2501.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  84.60 53.70  0.00  28.15   2529.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.60 53.40  0.00  28.00   2557.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.50  0.00  28.90   2586.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.10 55.30  0.00  28.70   2615.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.10  0.00  27.70   2642.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.10 53.10  0.01  28.10   2670.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.60 54.70  0.00  28.65   2699.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.30 53.80  0.00  27.05   2726.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.40 53.60  0.00  28.00   2754.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  87.20 53.60  0.00  29.40   2784.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.80 53.50  0.00  28.15   2812.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.00 54.60  0.00  27.80   2839.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.70 53.80  0.00  26.25   2866.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.90 54.10  0.00  25.50   2891.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  79.90 53.50  0.00  25.70   2917.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.40 52.90  0.04  26.15   2943.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.60 54.40  0.04  28.00   2971.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.10 53.70  0.01  26.90   2998.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.40 53.70  0.00  28.05   3026.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.40 56.20  0.00  29.80   3056.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.50 56.10  0.00  29.30   3085.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  86.00 54.40  0.00  29.20   3114.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 55.10  0.00  29.65   3144.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.70 55.20  0.04  28.95   3173.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  83.90 54.90  0.04  28.40   3201.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.90 53.00  0.03  25.95   3227.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.80 52.00  0.00  24.90   3252.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 51.40  0.00  24.95   3277.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.20 52.00  0.00  25.60   3303.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  82.40 52.30  0.03  26.35   3329.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.60 52.00  0.00  26.30   3355.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.00 51.90  0.02  26.45   3382.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.00 52.90  0.01  27.45   3409.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.40 53.60  0.03  26.50   3436.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.20 53.30  0.04  24.25   3460.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 52.00  0.03  22.85   3483.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.20  0.00  22.10   3505.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.70 50.60  0.00  24.15   3529.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.40 50.50  0.00  24.95   3554.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.00 50.90  0.02  24.95   3579.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.50 51.00  0.03  24.25   3603.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.40 51.70  0.18  24.55   3628.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.40 50.20  0.04  24.30   3652.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 50.50  0.01  24.90   3677.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.40 51.20  0.00  24.80   3702.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.60 51.30  0.00  24.95   3727.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  84.10 50.00  0.00  26.05   3753.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.70 50.70  0.00  27.70   3781.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  83.40 51.60  0.00  26.50   3807.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.60 51.90  0.00  23.75   3831.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.40 51.60  0.01  23.00   3854.2  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt
DD accumulation on 5-23-17: 1029 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 21 days behind 2015 ok
 4 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-14-17 857peak pheromone trap catch
 5-21-17 970peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1002peak egg laying
 6-5-17 1274peak egg hatch
 7-11-17 2094peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)