Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.80 32.00 0.05 0.32 0.3 * START * 1 2 34.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 0.3 1 3 37.40 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 4 37.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 5 37.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 6 35.10 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 7 30.20 24.10 0.08 0.00 0.3 1 8 34.00 28.90 0.58 0.00 0.3 1 9 43.00 33.00 0.50 0.39 0.7 1 10 39.90 33.00 0.41 0.00 0.7 1 11 34.00 28.40 0.01 0.00 0.7 1 12 34.00 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 13 30.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 14 33.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 15 34.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 16 34.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 17 42.80 24.10 0.96 0.24 0.9 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.62 9.00 9.9 1 19 52.00 42.10 0.01 6.05 16.0 1 20 48.20 39.20 0.09 3.05 19.0 1 21 50.00 39.00 0.27 3.87 22.9 1 22 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 26.5 1 23 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 31.0 1 24 46.90 26.60 0.00 1.39 32.4 1 25 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 34.1 1 26 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 36.8 1 27 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 38.7 1 28 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 40.1 1 29 41.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 40.1 1 30 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 43.4 1 31 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 46.1 2 1 43.00 35.10 0.00 0.44 46.6 2 2 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 48.1 2 3 38.00 30.00 0.77 0.00 48.1 2 4 53.10 37.00 0.96 4.92 53.0 2 5 46.40 35.60 2.23 1.72 54.7 2 6 45.00 33.80 0.24 1.06 55.8 2 7 41.00 33.80 0.25 0.00 55.8 2 8 44.60 39.00 1.54 1.33 57.1 2 9 61.00 42.00 0.35 10.50 67.6 2 10 50.00 39.00 0.06 3.87 71.5 2 11 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 75.4 2 12 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 79.3 2 13 59.00 33.10 0.00 6.96 86.3 2 14 53.60 30.20 0.18 4.19 90.5 2 15 57.90 44.60 1.48 10.25 100.7 2 16 55.90 44.10 1.09 9.00 109.7 2 17 57.20 42.80 0.01 9.00 118.7 2 18 54.00 42.10 0.32 7.05 125.8 2 19 48.90 39.20 0.29 3.39 129.1 2 20 51.80 42.10 0.91 5.95 135.1 2 21 48.20 37.40 0.36 2.72 137.8 2 22 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 139.3 2 23 46.90 30.20 0.01 1.55 140.9 2 24 42.80 30.20 0.02 0.29 141.2 2 25 48.90 30.20 0.00 2.29 143.5 2 26 41.00 37.00 0.22 0.00 143.5 2 27 45.00 35.10 0.08 1.13 144.6 2 28 51.10 33.80 0.04 3.52 148.1 3 1 53.10 37.90 0.17 5.11 153.2 3 2 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 157.5 3 3 50.00 42.10 0.37 5.05 162.6 3 4 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 164.7 3 5 45.00 33.80 0.28 1.06 165.8 3 6 45.00 33.10 0.30 1.02 166.8 3 7 51.80 39.00 0.30 4.74 171.5 3 8 50.00 44.10 0.17 6.05 177.6 3 9 59.00 44.60 0.62 10.80 188.4 3 10 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 200.4 3 11 57.20 39.90 0.35 7.67 208.1 3 12 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 220.0 3 13 57.20 50.00 0.38 12.60 232.6 3 14 59.00 53.10 0.95 15.05 247.7 3 15 57.20 44.60 0.44 9.90 257.6 3 16 55.00 37.00 0.00 5.82 263.4 3 17 46.90 37.00 0.35 2.08 265.5 3 18 57.20 35.10 0.26 6.48 271.9 3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 277.7 3 20 50.00 42.10 0.18 5.05 282.7 3 21 62.10 45.00 0.23 12.55 295.3 3 22 54.00 39.90 0.01 6.08 301.4 3 23 55.90 37.40 0.38 6.34 307.7 3 24 55.40 42.10 0.37 7.75 315.4 3 25 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 320.3 3 26 53.60 44.10 3.61 7.85 328.2 3 27 55.40 42.10 0.13 7.75 335.9 3 28 60.80 46.00 0.20 12.40 348.3 3 29 60.80 42.80 0.06 10.80 359.1 3 30 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 366.4 3 31 57.90 35.10 0.00 6.81 373.2 4 1 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 385.2 4 2 57.20 35.10 0.00 6.48 391.7 4 3 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 397.5 4 4 55.80 36.80 0.00 6.16 403.6 Hx Hn 4 5 55.90 44.10 0.06 9.00 412.6 4 6 64.90 44.60 0.19 13.75 426.4 4 7 55.40 42.10 0.33 7.75 434.1 4 8 53.60 37.40 0.07 5.24 439.4 4 9 55.90 37.40 0.14 6.34 445.7 4 10 54.00 39.20 0.11 5.87 451.6 4 11 57.20 37.40 0.63 6.96 458.5 4 12 60.80 44.10 0.28 11.45 470.0 4 13 52.00 42.10 0.04 6.05 476.0 4 14 55.40 39.20 0.06 6.56 482.6 4 15 60.80 34.00 0.00 7.96 490.5 4 16 66.20 44.60 0.04 14.40 504.9 4 17 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 516.4 4 18 63.00 44.60 0.12 12.80 529.2 4 19 54.00 42.10 0.47 7.05 536.3 4 20 59.00 41.00 0.16 9.00 545.3 4 21 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 558.4 4 22 62.60 46.00 0.06 13.30 571.7 4 23 55.90 46.40 0.27 10.15 581.8 4 24 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 593.3 4 25 54.00 44.10 0.51 8.05 601.4 4 26 59.00 42.80 0.27 9.90 611.3 4 27 55.90 39.00 0.07 6.75 618.0 4 28 60.10 35.10 0.00 7.85 625.9 4 29 64.40 37.00 0.13 10.36 636.2 4 30 60.80 41.00 0.84 9.90 646.1 5 1 55.40 37.40 0.01 6.10 652.2 5 2 66.20 51.10 0.03 17.65 669.9 5 3 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 697.8 5 4 82.40 57.00 0.20 28.70 726.5 5 5 59.00 50.00 0.13 13.50 740.0 5 6 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 750.8 5 7 66.90 37.00 0.00 11.58 762.4 5 8 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 778.1 5 9 73.90 42.80 0.00 17.35 795.5 5 10 73.40 46.00 0.09 18.70 814.2 5 11 57.20 50.00 3.69 12.60 826.8 5 12 55.40 44.60 0.11 9.00 835.8 5 13 55.40 42.10 0.43 7.75 843.5 5 14 61.00 44.10 0.13 11.55 855.1 peak pheromone trap catch 5 15 59.00 39.20 0.40 8.33 863.4 5 16 57.20 48.00 1.93 11.60 875.0 5 17 60.80 48.00 0.00 13.40 888.4 5 18 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 902.1 5 19 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 923.7 5 20 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 943.5 5 21 84.20 46.90 0.00 24.55 968.1 peak female adult emergence 5 22 91.40 55.00 0.00 32.20 1000.3 peak egg laying 5 23 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 1026.3 5 24 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 1039.4 5 25 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1058.7 5 26 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 1082.1 5 27 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1110.0 5 28 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1134.1 5 29 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1154.8 5 30 63.00 51.80 0.01 16.40 1171.2 5 31 77.00 46.40 0.11 20.70 1191.9 6 1 69.80 53.10 0.08 20.45 1212.3 6 2 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 1234.3 6 3 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1252.3 6 4 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1269.3 6 5 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 1289.2 peak egg hatch 6 6 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1313.5 6 7 77.00 48.00 0.22 21.50 1335.0 6 8 64.40 51.80 0.06 17.10 1352.1 6 9 61.00 50.00 0.06 14.50 1366.6 6 10 59.00 48.20 0.27 12.60 1379.2 6 11 70.00 48.00 0.02 18.00 1397.2 6 12 66.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 1413.2 6 13 66.20 48.00 0.00 16.10 1429.3 6 14 68.00 46.00 0.06 16.00 1445.3 6 15 64.40 53.60 0.15 18.00 1463.3 6 16 64.90 57.00 0.01 19.95 1483.2 6 17 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 1506.4 6 18 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1535.2 6 19 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 1564.9 6 20 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 1590.0 6 21 78.80 44.10 0.00 20.45 1610.4 6 22 84.20 46.00 0.00 24.10 1634.5 6 23 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1666.0 6 24 98.60 66.00 0.00 41.30 1707.3 6 25 96.80 57.20 0.00 36.00 1743.3 6 26 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 1767.8 6 27 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 1791.3 6 28 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 1812.2 6 29 82.90 48.20 0.00 24.55 1836.8 6 30 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 1863.1 7 1 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 1886.8 7 2 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1913.8 7 3 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 1940.1 7 4 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1968.0 7 5 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 1999.5 7 6 89.60 50.00 0.00 28.80 2028.3 7 7 75.20 53.10 0.00 23.15 2051.5 7 8 90.00 48.20 0.00 28.10 2079.6 peak in density large larvae 7 9 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 2107.5 7 10 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 2134.5 7 11 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 2157.7 7 12 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 2183.8 7 13 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 2208.8 7 14 87.80 48.20 0.00 27.00 2235.8 7 15 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 2261.8 7 16 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 2283.4 7 17 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 2307.9 7 18 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2334.9 7 19 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 2359.2 7 20 75.90 51.80 0.01 22.85 2382.0 7 21 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 2408.1 7 22 93.90 55.00 0.00 33.45 2441.6 7 23 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2473.1 7 24 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 2503.7 7 25 93.20 53.60 0.00 32.40 2536.1 7 26 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2567.4 7 27 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 2595.1 7 28 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 2621.5 7 29 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 2650.5 7 30 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 2682.0 7 31 93.90 50.00 0.00 30.95 2713.0 8 1 100.40 51.10 0.00 34.75 2747.7 8 2 105.80 59.00 0.00 41.40 2789.1 8 3 102.20 59.00 0.00 39.60 2828.7 8 4 96.80 60.10 0.00 37.45 2866.2 8 5 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 2893.7 8 6 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 2925.9 8 7 91.40 59.00 1.00 34.20 2960.1 8 8 97.00 57.00 0.00 36.00 2996.1 8 9 95.00 57.00 0.00 35.00 3031.1 8 10 91.40 57.00 0.00 33.20 3064.3 8 11 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 3094.9 8 12 81.00 55.00 0.17 27.00 3121.9 8 13 75.90 53.10 0.02 23.50 3145.4 8 14 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 3165.3 8 15 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 3190.4 8 16 87.10 50.00 0.00 27.55 3218.0 8 17 83.00 57.20 0.00 29.10 3247.1 8 18 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 3274.1 8 19 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 3300.2 8 20 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 3325.7 8 21 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 3357.9 8 22 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 3389.4 8 23 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 3417.9 8 24 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 3442.8 8 25 84.20 44.60 0.00 23.40 3466.2 8 26 93.90 48.00 0.00 29.95 3496.2 8 27 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 3527.3 8 28 98.60 53.60 0.00 35.10 3562.4 8 29 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 3593.8 8 30 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 3617.4 8 31 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 3646.2 9 1 97.00 50.00 0.00 32.50 3678.7 9 2 100.90 51.80 0.00 35.35 3714.1 9 3 96.80 55.40 0.00 35.10 3749.2 9 4 93.90 57.20 0.00 34.55 3783.7 9 5 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 3817.6 9 6 84.20 60.80 0.02 31.50 3849.1 9 7 86.00 62.60 0.01 33.30 3882.4 9 8 75.90 62.10 0.01 28.00 3910.4 9 9 81.00 59.00 0.01 29.00 3939.4 9 10 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 3966.6 9 11 97.00 46.40 0.00 30.70 3997.3 9 12 90.00 51.10 0.00 29.55 4026.9 9 13 78.10 45.00 0.00 20.55 4047.4 9 14 78.80 48.00 0.00 22.40 4069.8 9 15 80.60 42.80 0.00 20.70 4090.5 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KMMV data
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KMMV 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt
QA 100% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 5-14-17 855peak pheromone trap catch
 5-21-17 968peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1000peak egg laying
 6-5-17 1289peak egg hatch
 7-8-17 2080peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)