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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 42.80 32.00 0.05 0.32 0.3 * START *
1 2 34.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 0.3
1 3 37.40 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.3
1 4 37.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.3
1 5 37.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.3
1 6 35.10 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.3
1 7 30.20 24.10 0.08 0.00 0.3
1 8 34.00 28.90 0.58 0.00 0.3
1 9 43.00 33.00 0.50 0.39 0.7
1 10 39.90 33.00 0.41 0.00 0.7
1 11 34.00 28.40 0.01 0.00 0.7
1 12 34.00 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.7
1 13 30.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.7
1 14 33.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.7
1 15 34.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.7
1 16 34.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.7
1 17 42.80 24.10 0.96 0.24 0.9
1 18 55.40 44.60 0.62 9.00 9.9
1 19 52.00 42.10 0.01 6.05 16.0
1 20 48.20 39.20 0.09 3.05 19.0
1 21 50.00 39.00 0.27 3.87 22.9
1 22 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 26.5
1 23 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 31.0
1 24 46.90 26.60 0.00 1.39 32.4
1 25 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 34.1
1 26 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 36.8
1 27 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 38.7
1 28 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 40.1
1 29 41.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 40.1
1 30 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 43.4
1 31 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 46.1
2 1 43.00 35.10 0.00 0.44 46.6
2 2 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 48.1
2 3 38.00 30.00 0.77 0.00 48.1
2 4 53.10 37.00 0.96 4.92 53.0
2 5 46.40 35.60 2.23 1.72 54.7
2 6 45.00 33.80 0.24 1.06 55.8
2 7 41.00 33.80 0.25 0.00 55.8
2 8 44.60 39.00 1.54 1.33 57.1
2 9 61.00 42.00 0.35 10.50 67.6
2 10 50.00 39.00 0.06 3.87 71.5
2 11 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 75.4
2 12 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 79.3
2 13 59.00 33.10 0.00 6.96 86.3
2 14 53.60 30.20 0.18 4.19 90.5
2 15 57.90 44.60 1.48 10.25 100.7
2 16 55.90 44.10 1.09 9.00 109.7
2 17 57.20 42.80 0.01 9.00 118.7
2 18 54.00 42.10 0.32 7.05 125.8
2 19 48.90 39.20 0.29 3.39 129.1
2 20 51.80 42.10 0.91 5.95 135.1
2 21 48.20 37.40 0.36 2.72 137.8
2 22 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 139.3
2 23 46.90 30.20 0.01 1.55 140.9
2 24 42.80 30.20 0.02 0.29 141.2
2 25 48.90 30.20 0.00 2.29 143.5
2 26 41.00 37.00 0.22 0.00 143.5
2 27 45.00 35.10 0.08 1.13 144.6
2 28 51.10 33.80 0.04 3.52 148.1
3 1 53.10 37.90 0.17 5.11 153.2
3 2 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 157.5
3 3 50.00 42.10 0.37 5.05 162.6
3 4 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 164.7
3 5 45.00 33.80 0.28 1.06 165.8
3 6 45.00 33.10 0.30 1.02 166.8
3 7 51.80 39.00 0.30 4.74 171.5
3 8 50.00 44.10 0.17 6.05 177.6
3 9 59.00 44.60 0.62 10.80 188.4
3 10 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 200.4
3 11 57.20 39.90 0.35 7.67 208.1
3 12 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 220.0
3 13 57.20 50.00 0.38 12.60 232.6
3 14 59.00 53.10 0.95 15.05 247.7
3 15 57.20 44.60 0.44 9.90 257.6
3 16 55.00 37.00 0.00 5.82 263.4
3 17 46.90 37.00 0.35 2.08 265.5
3 18 57.20 35.10 0.26 6.48 271.9
3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 277.7
3 20 50.00 42.10 0.18 5.05 282.7
3 21 62.10 45.00 0.23 12.55 295.3
3 22 54.00 39.90 0.01 6.08 301.4
3 23 55.90 37.40 0.38 6.34 307.7
3 24 55.40 42.10 0.37 7.75 315.4
3 25 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 320.3
3 26 53.60 44.10 3.61 7.85 328.2
3 27 55.40 42.10 0.13 7.75 335.9
3 28 60.80 46.00 0.20 12.40 348.3
3 29 60.80 42.80 0.06 10.80 359.1
3 30 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 366.4
3 31 57.90 35.10 0.00 6.81 373.2
4 1 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 385.2
4 2 57.20 35.10 0.00 6.48 391.7
4 3 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 397.5
4 4 55.80 36.80 0.00 6.16 403.6 Hx Hn
4 5 55.90 44.10 0.06 9.00 412.6
4 6 64.90 44.60 0.19 13.75 426.4
4 7 55.40 42.10 0.33 7.75 434.1
4 8 53.60 37.40 0.07 5.24 439.4
4 9 55.90 37.40 0.14 6.34 445.7
4 10 54.00 39.20 0.11 5.87 451.6
4 11 57.20 37.40 0.63 6.96 458.5
4 12 60.80 44.10 0.28 11.45 470.0
4 13 52.00 42.10 0.04 6.05 476.0
4 14 55.40 39.20 0.06 6.56 482.6
4 15 60.80 34.00 0.00 7.96 490.5
4 16 66.20 44.60 0.04 14.40 504.9
4 17 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 516.4
4 18 63.00 44.60 0.12 12.80 529.2
4 19 54.00 42.10 0.47 7.05 536.3
4 20 59.00 41.00 0.16 9.00 545.3
4 21 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 558.4
4 22 62.60 46.00 0.06 13.30 571.7
4 23 55.90 46.40 0.27 10.15 581.8
4 24 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 593.3
4 25 54.00 44.10 0.51 8.05 601.4
4 26 59.00 42.80 0.27 9.90 611.3
4 27 55.90 39.00 0.07 6.75 618.0
4 28 60.10 35.10 0.00 7.85 625.9
4 29 64.40 37.00 0.13 10.36 636.2
4 30 60.80 41.00 0.84 9.90 646.1
5 1 55.40 37.40 0.01 6.10 652.2
5 2 66.20 51.10 0.03 17.65 669.9
5 3 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 697.8
5 4 82.40 57.00 0.20 28.70 726.5
5 5 59.00 50.00 0.13 13.50 740.0
5 6 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 750.8
5 7 66.90 37.00 0.00 11.58 762.4
5 8 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 778.1
5 9 73.90 42.80 0.00 17.35 795.5
5 10 73.40 46.00 0.09 18.70 814.2
5 11 57.20 50.00 3.69 12.60 826.8
5 12 55.40 44.60 0.11 9.00 835.8
5 13 55.40 42.10 0.43 7.75 843.5
5 14 61.00 44.10 0.13 11.55 855.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 15 59.00 39.20 0.40 8.33 863.4
5 16 57.20 48.00 1.93 11.60 875.0
5 17 60.80 48.00 0.00 13.40 888.4
5 18 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 902.1
5 19 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 923.7
5 20 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 943.5
5 21 84.20 46.90 0.00 24.55 968.1 Peak female adult emergence
5 22 91.40 55.00 0.00 32.20 1000.3 Peak egg laying
5 23 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 1026.3
5 24 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 1039.4
5 25 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1058.7
5 26 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 1082.1
5 27 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1110.0
5 28 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1134.1
5 29 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1154.8
5 30 63.00 51.80 0.01 16.40 1171.2
5 31 77.00 46.40 0.11 20.70 1191.9
6 1 69.80 53.10 0.08 20.45 1212.3
6 2 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 1234.3
6 3 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1252.3
6 4 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1269.3
6 5 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 1289.2 Peak egg hatch
6 6 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1313.5
6 7 77.00 48.00 0.22 21.50 1335.0
6 8 64.40 51.80 0.06 17.10 1352.1
6 9 61.00 50.00 0.06 14.50 1366.6
6 10 59.00 48.20 0.27 12.60 1379.2
6 11 70.00 48.00 0.02 18.00 1397.2
6 12 66.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 1413.2
6 13 66.20 48.00 0.00 16.10 1429.3
6 14 68.00 46.00 0.06 16.00 1445.3
6 15 64.40 53.60 0.15 18.00 1463.3
6 16 64.90 57.00 0.01 19.95 1483.2
6 17 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 1506.4
6 18 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1535.2
6 19 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 1564.9
6 20 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 1590.0
6 21 78.80 44.10 0.00 20.45 1610.4
6 22 84.20 46.00 0.00 24.10 1634.5
6 23 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1666.0
6 24 98.60 66.00 0.00 41.30 1707.3
6 25 96.80 57.20 0.00 36.00 1743.3
6 26 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 1767.8
6 27 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 1791.3
6 28 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 1812.2
6 29 82.90 48.20 0.00 24.55 1836.8
6 30 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 1863.1
7 1 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 1886.8
7 2 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1913.8
7 3 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 1940.1
7 4 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1968.0
7 5 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 1999.5
7 6 89.60 50.00 0.00 28.80 2028.3
7 7 75.20 53.10 0.00 23.15 2051.5
7 8 90.00 48.20 0.00 28.10 2079.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 9 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 2107.5
7 10 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 2134.5
7 11 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 2157.7
7 12 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 2183.8
7 13 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 2208.8
7 14 87.80 48.20 0.00 27.00 2235.8
7 15 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 2261.8
7 16 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 2283.4
7 17 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 2307.9
7 18 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2334.9
7 19 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 2359.2
7 20 75.90 51.80 0.01 22.85 2382.0
7 21 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 2408.1
7 22 93.90 55.00 0.00 33.45 2441.6
7 23 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2473.1
7 24 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 2503.7
7 25 93.20 53.60 0.00 32.40 2536.1
7 26 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2567.4
7 27 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 2595.1
7 28 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 2621.5
7 29 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 2650.5
7 30 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 2682.0
7 31 93.90 50.00 0.00 30.95 2713.0
8 1 100.40 51.10 0.00 34.75 2747.7
8 2 105.80 59.00 0.00 41.40 2789.1
8 3 102.20 59.00 0.00 39.60 2828.7
8 4 96.80 60.10 0.00 37.45 2866.2
8 5 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 2893.7
8 6 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 2925.9
8 7 91.40 59.00 1.00 34.20 2960.1
8 8 97.00 57.00 0.00 36.00 2996.1
8 9 95.00 57.00 0.00 35.00 3031.1
8 10 91.40 57.00 0.00 33.20 3064.3
8 11 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 3094.9
8 12 81.00 55.00 0.17 27.00 3121.9
8 13 75.90 53.10 0.02 23.50 3145.4
8 14 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 3165.3
8 15 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 3190.4
8 16 87.10 50.00 0.00 27.55 3218.0
8 17 83.00 57.20 0.00 29.10 3247.1
8 18 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 3274.1
8 19 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 3300.2
8 20 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 3325.7
8 21 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 3357.9
8 22 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 3389.4
8 23 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 3417.9
8 24 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 3442.8
8 25 84.20 44.60 0.00 23.40 3466.2
8 26 93.90 48.00 0.00 29.95 3496.2
8 27 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 3527.3
8 28 98.60 53.60 0.00 35.10 3562.4
8 29 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 3593.8
8 30 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 3617.4
8 31 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 3646.2
9 1 97.00 50.00 0.00 32.50 3678.7
9 2 100.90 51.80 0.00 35.35 3714.1
9 3 96.80 55.40 0.00 35.10 3749.2
9 4 93.90 57.20 0.00 34.55 3783.7
9 5 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 3817.6
9 6 84.20 60.80 0.02 31.50 3849.1
9 7 86.00 62.60 0.01 33.30 3882.4
9 8 75.90 62.10 0.01 28.00 3910.4
9 9 81.00 59.00 0.01 29.00 3939.4
9 10 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 3966.6
9 11 97.00 46.40 0.00 30.70 3997.3
9 12 90.00 51.10 0.00 29.55 4026.9
9 13 78.10 45.00 0.00 20.55 4047.4
9 14 78.80 48.00 0.00 22.40 4069.8
9 15 80.60 42.80 0.00 20.70 4090.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-14-17 | 855 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-21-17 | 968 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-22-17 | 1000 | Peak egg laying |
6-5-17 | 1289 | Peak egg hatch |
7-8-17 | 2080 | Peak in density large larvae |