Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.80 32.00 0.05 0.32 0.3 * START * 1 2 34.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 0.3 1 3 37.40 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 4 37.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 5 37.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 6 35.10 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 7 30.20 24.10 0.08 0.00 0.3 1 8 34.00 28.90 0.58 0.00 0.3 1 9 43.00 33.00 0.50 0.39 0.7 1 10 39.90 33.00 0.41 0.00 0.7 1 11 34.00 28.40 0.01 0.00 0.7 1 12 34.00 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 13 30.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 14 33.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 15 34.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 16 34.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 17 42.80 24.10 0.96 0.24 0.9 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.62 9.00 9.9 1 19 52.00 42.10 0.01 6.05 16.0 1 20 48.20 39.20 0.09 3.05 19.0 1 21 50.00 39.00 0.27 3.87 22.9 1 22 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 26.5 1 23 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 31.0 1 24 46.90 26.60 0.00 1.39 32.4 1 25 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 34.1 1 26 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 36.8 1 27 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 38.7 1 28 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 40.1 1 29 41.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 40.1 1 30 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 43.4 1 31 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 46.1 2 1 43.00 35.10 0.00 0.44 46.6 2 2 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 48.1 2 3 38.00 30.00 0.77 0.00 48.1 2 4 53.10 37.00 0.96 4.92 53.0 2 5 46.40 35.60 2.23 1.72 54.7 2 6 45.00 33.80 0.24 1.06 55.8 2 7 41.00 33.80 0.25 0.00 55.8 2 8 44.60 39.00 1.54 1.33 57.1 2 9 61.00 42.00 0.35 10.50 67.6 2 10 50.00 39.00 0.06 3.87 71.5 2 11 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 75.4 2 12 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 79.3 2 13 59.00 33.10 0.00 6.96 86.3 2 14 53.60 30.20 0.18 4.19 90.5 2 15 57.90 44.60 1.48 10.25 100.7 2 16 55.90 44.10 1.09 9.00 109.7 2 17 57.20 42.80 0.01 9.00 118.7 2 18 54.00 42.10 0.32 7.05 125.8 2 19 48.90 39.20 0.29 3.39 129.1 2 20 51.80 42.10 0.91 5.95 135.1 2 21 48.20 37.40 0.36 2.72 137.8 2 22 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 139.3 2 23 46.90 30.20 0.01 1.55 140.9 2 24 42.80 30.20 0.02 0.29 141.2 2 25 48.90 30.20 0.00 2.29 143.5 2 26 41.00 37.00 0.22 0.00 143.5 2 27 45.00 35.10 0.08 1.13 144.6 2 28 51.10 33.80 0.04 3.52 148.1 3 1 53.10 37.90 0.17 5.11 153.2 3 2 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 157.5 3 3 50.00 42.10 0.37 5.05 162.6 3 4 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 164.7 3 5 45.00 33.80 0.28 1.06 165.8 3 6 45.00 33.10 0.30 1.02 166.8 3 7 51.80 39.00 0.30 4.74 171.5 3 8 50.00 44.10 0.17 6.05 177.6 3 9 59.00 44.60 0.62 10.80 188.4 3 10 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 200.4 3 11 57.20 39.90 0.35 7.67 208.1 3 12 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 220.0 3 13 57.20 50.00 0.38 12.60 232.6 3 14 59.00 53.10 0.95 15.05 247.7 3 15 57.20 44.60 0.44 9.90 257.6 3 16 55.00 37.00 0.00 5.82 263.4 3 17 46.90 37.00 0.35 2.08 265.5 3 18 57.20 35.10 0.26 6.48 271.9 3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 277.7 3 20 50.00 42.10 0.18 5.05 282.7 3 21 62.10 45.00 0.23 12.55 295.3 3 22 54.00 39.90 0.01 6.08 301.4 3 23 55.90 37.40 0.38 6.34 307.7 3 24 55.40 42.10 0.37 7.75 315.4 3 25 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 320.3 3 26 53.60 44.10 3.61 7.85 328.2 3 27 55.40 42.10 0.13 7.75 335.9 3 28 60.80 46.00 0.20 12.40 348.3 3 29 60.80 42.80 0.06 10.80 359.1 3 30 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 366.4 3 31 57.90 35.10 0.00 6.81 373.2 4 1 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 385.2 4 2 57.20 35.10 0.00 6.48 391.7 4 3 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 397.5 4 4 58.70 38.60 0.00 8.01 405.5 Hx Hn 4 5 55.90 44.10 0.06 9.00 414.5 4 6 64.90 44.60 0.19 13.75 428.2 4 7 55.40 42.10 0.33 7.75 436.0 4 8 53.60 37.40 0.07 5.24 441.2 4 9 55.90 37.40 0.14 6.34 447.5 4 10 54.00 39.20 0.11 5.87 453.4 4 11 57.20 37.40 0.63 6.96 460.4 4 12 60.80 44.10 0.28 11.45 471.8 4 13 52.00 42.10 0.04 6.05 477.9 4 14 55.40 39.20 0.06 6.56 484.4 4 15 60.80 34.00 0.00 7.96 492.4 4 16 66.20 44.60 0.04 14.40 506.8 4 17 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 518.3 4 18 63.00 44.60 0.12 12.80 531.1 4 19 54.00 42.10 0.47 7.05 538.1 4 20 59.00 41.00 0.16 9.00 547.1 4 21 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 560.2 4 22 62.60 46.00 0.06 13.30 573.5 4 23 55.90 46.40 0.27 10.15 583.7 4 24 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 595.2 4 25 54.00 44.10 0.51 8.05 603.2 4 26 59.00 42.80 0.27 9.90 613.1 4 27 55.90 39.00 0.07 6.75 619.9 4 28 60.10 35.10 0.00 7.85 627.7 4 29 64.40 37.00 0.13 10.36 638.1 4 30 60.80 41.00 0.84 9.90 648.0 5 1 55.40 37.40 0.01 6.10 654.1 5 2 66.20 51.10 0.03 17.65 671.7 5 3 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 699.7 5 4 82.40 57.00 0.20 28.70 728.4 5 5 59.00 50.00 0.13 13.50 741.9 5 6 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 752.7 5 7 66.90 37.00 0.00 11.58 764.3 5 8 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 780.0 5 9 73.90 42.80 0.00 17.35 797.3 5 10 73.40 46.00 0.09 18.70 816.0 5 11 57.20 50.00 3.69 12.60 828.6 5 12 55.40 44.60 0.11 9.00 837.6 5 13 55.40 42.10 0.43 7.75 845.4 5 14 61.00 44.10 0.13 11.55 856.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 15 59.00 39.20 0.40 8.33 865.3 5 16 57.20 48.00 1.93 11.60 876.9 5 17 60.80 48.00 0.00 13.40 890.3 5 18 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 904.0 5 19 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 925.6 5 20 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 945.4 5 21 84.20 46.90 0.00 24.55 969.9 peak female adult emergence 5 22 91.40 55.00 0.00 32.20 1002.1 peak egg laying 5 23 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 1028.1 5 24 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 1041.3 5 25 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1060.5 5 26 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 1084.0 5 27 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1111.9 5 28 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1135.9 5 29 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1156.6 5 30 63.00 51.80 0.01 16.40 1173.0 5 31 77.00 46.40 0.11 20.70 1193.7 6 1 69.80 53.10 0.08 20.45 1214.2 6 2 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 1236.1 6 3 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1254.1 6 4 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1271.1 peak egg hatch 6 5 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 1291.0 6 6 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1315.3 6 7 77.00 48.00 0.22 21.50 1336.8 6 8 64.40 51.80 0.06 17.10 1353.9 6 9 61.00 50.00 0.06 14.50 1368.4 6 10 59.00 48.20 0.27 12.60 1381.0 6 11 70.00 48.00 0.02 18.00 1399.0 6 12 66.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 1415.0 6 13 66.20 48.00 0.00 16.10 1431.1 6 14 68.00 46.00 0.06 16.00 1447.1 6 15 64.40 53.60 0.15 18.00 1465.1 6 16 64.90 57.00 0.01 19.95 1485.1 6 17 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 1508.3 6 18 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1537.1 6 19 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 1566.8 6 20 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 1591.8 6 21 78.80 44.10 0.00 20.45 1612.3 6 22 84.20 46.00 0.00 24.10 1636.4 6 23 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1667.9 6 24 98.60 66.20 0.00 41.40 1709.3 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KMMV data
  6 25  90.90 54.70  0.00  31.80   1741.1  0.00_22.80%_precip.    
  6 26  71.20 51.60  0.00  20.40   1761.5  0.00_11.40%_precip.    
  6 27  74.80 42.50  0.00  17.65   1779.1  0.00_9.52%_precip.    
  6 28  70.50 41.90  0.00  15.20   1794.3  0.00_7.35%_precip.    
  6 29  74.90 43.20  0.00  18.05   1812.4  0.00_9.78%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KMMV 2006-2015
  6 30  78.30 52.90  0.01  24.60   1837.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  82.00 52.00  0.01  26.00   1863.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  84.50 53.40  0.01  27.95   1890.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  84.40 53.50  0.00  27.95   1918.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  82.20 53.00  0.00  26.60   1945.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.80 52.60  0.00  26.20   1971.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  80.00 52.80  0.00  25.40   1997.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  82.50 51.90  0.01  26.20   2023.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  84.10 53.20  0.00  27.65   2050.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  86.30 53.60  0.00  28.95   2079.9  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 10  86.60 54.50  0.00  29.55   2109.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  84.50 53.90  0.00  28.20   2137.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.70 53.80  0.00  26.75   2164.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.80 54.80  0.04  26.30   2190.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  79.90 53.50  0.01  25.70   2216.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  85.10 53.80  0.00  28.45   2244.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  85.00 54.00  0.02  28.50   2273.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  83.30 54.20  0.01  27.75   2301.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  79.80 53.40  0.05  25.60   2326.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  80.40 52.60  0.01  25.50   2352.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  82.70 53.70  0.00  27.20   2379.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.90 53.90  0.01  26.90   2406.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.80 54.10  0.00  27.45   2433.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.30  0.02  26.60   2460.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  83.40 54.20  0.04  27.80   2488.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.00 53.20  0.00  28.60   2516.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.60 53.90  0.00  28.25   2545.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  84.60 53.70  0.00  28.15   2573.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.60 53.40  0.00  28.00   2601.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.50  0.00  28.90   2630.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.10 55.30  0.00  28.70   2658.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.10  0.00  27.70   2686.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.10 53.10  0.01  28.10   2714.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.60 54.70  0.00  28.65   2743.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.30 53.80  0.00  27.05   2770.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.40 53.60  0.00  28.00   2798.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  87.20 53.60  0.00  29.40   2827.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.80 53.50  0.00  28.15   2855.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.00 54.60  0.00  27.80   2883.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.70 53.80  0.00  26.25   2909.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.90 54.10  0.00  25.50   2935.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  79.90 53.50  0.00  25.70   2961.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.40 52.90  0.04  26.15   2987.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.60 54.40  0.04  28.00   3015.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.10 53.70  0.01  26.90   3042.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.40 53.70  0.00  28.05   3070.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.40 56.20  0.00  29.80   3099.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.50 56.10  0.00  29.30   3129.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  86.00 54.40  0.00  29.20   3158.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 55.10  0.00  29.65   3188.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.70 55.20  0.04  28.95   3217.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  83.90 54.90  0.04  28.40   3245.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.90 53.00  0.03  25.95   3271.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.80 52.00  0.00  24.90   3296.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 51.40  0.00  24.95   3321.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.20 52.00  0.00  25.60   3346.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  82.40 52.30  0.03  26.35   3373.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.60 52.00  0.00  26.30   3399.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.00 51.90  0.02  26.45   3425.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.00 52.90  0.01  27.45   3453.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.40 53.60  0.03  26.50   3479.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.20 53.30  0.04  24.25   3504.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 52.00  0.03  22.85   3527.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.20  0.00  22.10   3549.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.70 50.60  0.00  24.15   3573.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.40 50.50  0.00  24.95   3598.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.00 50.90  0.02  24.95   3623.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.50 51.00  0.03  24.25   3647.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.40 51.70  0.18  24.55   3671.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.40 50.20  0.04  24.30   3696.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 50.50  0.01  24.90   3721.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.40 51.20  0.00  24.80   3745.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.60 51.30  0.00  24.95   3770.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  84.10 50.00  0.00  26.05   3796.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.70 50.70  0.00  27.70   3824.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  83.40 51.60  0.00  26.50   3851.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.60 51.90  0.00  23.75   3874.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.40 51.60  0.01  23.00   3897.9  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 22 days behind 2016 ok
 18 days behind 2015 ok
 7 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-14-17 857peak pheromone trap catch
 5-21-17 970peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1002peak egg laying
 6-4-17 1271peak egg hatch
 7-9-17 2080peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)