Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.80 32.00 0.05 0.32 0.3 * START * 1 2 34.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 0.3 1 3 37.40 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 4 37.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 5 37.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 6 35.10 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 7 30.20 24.10 0.08 0.00 0.3 1 8 34.00 28.90 0.58 0.00 0.3 1 9 43.00 33.00 0.50 0.39 0.7 1 10 39.90 33.00 0.41 0.00 0.7 1 11 34.00 28.40 0.01 0.00 0.7 1 12 34.00 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 13 30.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 14 33.80 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 15 34.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 16 34.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.7 1 17 42.80 24.10 0.96 0.24 0.9 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.62 9.00 9.9 1 19 52.00 42.10 0.01 6.05 16.0 1 20 48.20 39.20 0.09 3.05 19.0 1 21 50.00 39.00 0.27 3.87 22.9 1 22 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 26.5 1 23 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 31.0 1 24 46.90 26.60 0.00 1.39 32.4 1 25 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 34.1 1 26 49.00 34.00 0.00 2.64 36.8 1 27 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 38.7 1 28 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 40.1 1 29 41.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 40.1 1 30 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 43.4 1 31 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 46.1 2 1 43.00 35.10 0.00 0.44 46.6 2 2 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 48.1 2 3 38.00 30.00 0.77 0.00 48.1 2 4 53.10 37.00 0.96 4.92 53.0 2 5 46.40 35.60 2.23 1.72 54.7 2 6 45.00 33.80 0.24 1.06 55.8 2 7 41.00 33.80 0.25 0.00 55.8 2 8 44.60 39.00 1.54 1.33 57.1 2 9 61.00 42.00 0.35 10.50 67.6 2 10 50.00 39.00 0.06 3.87 71.5 2 11 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 75.4 2 12 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 79.3 2 13 59.00 33.10 0.00 6.96 86.3 2 14 53.60 30.20 0.18 4.19 90.5 2 15 57.90 44.60 1.48 10.25 100.7 2 16 55.90 44.10 1.09 9.00 109.7 2 17 57.20 42.80 0.01 9.00 118.7 2 18 54.00 42.10 0.32 7.05 125.8 2 19 48.90 39.20 0.29 3.39 129.1 2 20 51.80 42.10 0.91 5.95 135.1 2 21 48.20 37.40 0.36 2.72 137.8 2 22 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 139.3 2 23 46.90 30.20 0.01 1.55 140.9 2 24 42.80 30.20 0.02 0.29 141.2 2 25 48.90 30.20 0.00 2.29 143.5 2 26 41.00 37.00 0.22 0.00 143.5 2 27 45.00 35.10 0.08 1.13 144.6 2 28 51.10 33.80 0.04 3.52 148.1 3 1 53.10 37.90 0.17 5.11 153.2 3 2 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 157.5 3 3 50.00 42.10 0.37 5.05 162.6 3 4 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 164.7 3 5 45.00 33.80 0.28 1.06 165.8 3 6 45.00 33.10 0.30 1.02 166.8 3 7 51.80 39.00 0.30 4.74 171.5 3 8 50.00 44.10 0.17 6.05 177.6 3 9 59.00 44.60 0.62 10.80 188.4 3 10 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 200.4 3 11 57.20 39.90 0.35 7.67 208.1 3 12 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 220.0 3 13 57.20 50.00 0.38 12.60 232.6 3 14 59.00 53.10 0.95 15.05 247.7 3 15 57.20 44.60 0.44 9.90 257.6 3 16 55.00 37.00 0.00 5.82 263.4 3 17 46.90 37.00 0.35 2.08 265.5 3 18 57.20 35.10 0.26 6.48 271.9 3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 277.7 3 20 50.00 42.10 0.18 5.05 282.7 3 21 62.10 45.00 0.23 12.55 295.3 3 22 54.00 39.90 0.01 6.08 301.4 3 23 55.90 37.40 0.38 6.34 307.7 3 24 55.40 42.10 0.37 7.75 315.4 3 25 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 320.3 3 26 53.60 44.10 3.61 7.85 328.2 3 27 55.40 42.10 0.13 7.75 335.9 3 28 60.80 46.00 0.20 12.40 348.3 3 29 60.80 42.80 0.06 10.80 359.1 3 30 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 366.4 3 31 57.90 35.10 0.00 6.81 373.2 4 1 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 385.2 4 2 57.20 35.10 0.00 6.48 391.7 4 3 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 397.5 4 4 58.70 38.60 0.00 8.01 405.5 Hx Hn 4 5 55.90 44.10 0.06 9.00 414.5 4 6 64.90 44.60 0.19 13.75 428.2 4 7 55.40 42.10 0.33 7.75 436.0 4 8 53.60 37.40 0.07 5.24 441.2 4 9 55.90 37.40 0.14 6.34 447.5 4 10 54.00 39.20 0.11 5.87 453.4 4 11 57.20 37.40 0.63 6.96 460.4 4 12 60.80 44.10 0.28 11.45 471.8 4 13 52.00 42.10 0.04 6.05 477.9 4 14 55.40 39.20 0.06 6.56 484.4 4 15 60.80 34.00 0.00 7.96 492.4 4 16 66.20 44.60 0.04 14.40 506.8 4 17 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 518.3 4 18 63.00 44.60 0.12 12.80 531.1 4 19 54.00 42.10 0.47 7.05 538.1 4 20 59.00 41.00 0.16 9.00 547.1 4 21 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 560.2 4 22 62.60 46.00 0.06 13.30 573.5 4 23 55.90 46.40 0.27 10.15 583.7 4 24 59.00 46.00 0.22 11.50 595.2 4 25 54.00 44.10 1.19 8.05 603.2
DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 603QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 33 days behind 2015 ok
 1 day ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KMMV data
  4 26  52.30 42.40  0.06   6.35    609.6  0.063_0.27%_precip.    
  4 27  54.10 34.00  0.02   4.87    614.5  0.022_0.42%_precip.    
  4 28  59.70 32.80  0.00   7.24    621.7  0.00_1.75%_precip.    
  4 29  57.80 30.90  0.07   6.09    627.8  0.073_1.13%_precip.    
  4 30  53.10 37.30  0.03   4.98    632.8  0.03_0.30%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KMMV 2006-2015
  5  1  64.20 39.60  0.01  11.04    643.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5  2  66.20 41.90  0.05  13.05    656.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  3  65.00 42.80  0.09  12.90    669.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5  4  64.00 42.60  0.08  12.30    682.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5  5  64.90 42.80  0.14  12.85    694.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  6  64.40 43.70  0.05  13.05    708.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5  7  64.70 42.60  0.05  12.65    720.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5  8  66.50 42.00  0.03  13.25    733.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  9  66.30 42.00  0.07  13.15    747.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 10  67.70 41.60  0.04  13.65    760.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 11  68.20 43.80  0.01  15.00    775.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 12  66.50 43.10  0.05  13.80    789.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 13  65.70 44.40  0.04  14.05    803.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 14  68.70 44.40  0.04  15.55    819.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5 15  74.40 45.40  0.01  18.90    838.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 16  74.90 47.20  0.03  20.05    858.0  *hist_fcst*   peak pheromone trap catch
  5 17  73.70 47.80  0.02  19.75    877.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 18  73.30 47.20  0.03  19.25    897.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 19  71.20 46.90  0.06  18.05    915.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5 20  67.60 45.70  0.05  15.65    930.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 21  66.80 46.10  0.11  15.45    946.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 22  65.10 45.70  0.13  14.40    960.6  *hist_fcst*   peak female adult emergence
  5 23  64.00 46.20  0.15  14.10    974.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 24  63.60 46.90  0.14  14.25    988.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  67.00 47.20  0.09  16.10   1005.0  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  5 26  67.10 47.50  0.12  16.30   1021.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.80 48.40  0.09  16.10   1037.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  65.60 47.30  0.07  15.45   1052.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  67.40 47.90  0.08  16.65   1069.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  71.10 48.00  0.00  18.55   1088.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  74.80 48.90  0.05  20.85   1108.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  73.70 50.20  0.05  20.95   1129.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.60 49.70  0.11  19.15   1149.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.60 49.30  0.10  18.95   1168.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  72.60 49.10  0.10  19.85   1187.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  73.50 49.60  0.12  20.55   1208.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  72.10 49.10  0.04  19.60   1228.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.90 49.20  0.08  19.55   1247.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  71.10 49.70  0.03  19.40   1266.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  72.90 48.50  0.02  19.70   1286.6  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6 10  69.60 48.30  0.05  17.95   1304.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  69.40 47.90  0.01  17.65   1322.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  71.40 48.40  0.02  18.90   1341.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  71.50 49.00  0.08  19.25   1360.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  69.10 48.70  0.03  17.90   1378.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  70.50 47.90  0.00  18.20   1396.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.80 48.40  0.02  19.60   1416.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  71.80 48.40  0.00  19.10   1435.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  70.80 49.20  0.00  19.00   1454.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  71.10 49.20  0.01  19.15   1473.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  72.50 49.40  0.02  19.95   1493.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  74.50 49.70  0.00  21.10   1514.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.90 49.70  0.00  21.80   1536.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  74.00 48.80  0.02  20.40   1556.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  75.50 49.80  0.03  21.65   1578.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  76.20 51.00  0.03  22.60   1600.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  77.20 52.50  0.03  23.85   1624.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  80.10 53.20  0.04  25.65   1650.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  81.70 53.60  0.02  26.65   1677.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.30 54.60  0.03  25.95   1702.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  78.30 52.90  0.01  24.60   1727.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  82.00 52.00  0.01  26.00   1753.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  84.50 53.40  0.01  27.95   1781.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  84.40 53.50  0.00  27.95   1809.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  82.20 53.00  0.00  26.60   1836.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.80 52.60  0.00  26.20   1862.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  80.00 52.80  0.00  25.40   1887.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  82.50 51.90  0.01  26.20   1913.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  84.10 53.20  0.00  27.65   1941.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  86.30 53.60  0.00  28.95   1970.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  86.60 54.50  0.00  29.55   2000.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  84.50 53.90  0.00  28.20   2028.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.70 53.80  0.00  26.75   2054.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.80 54.80  0.04  26.30   2081.2  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 14  79.90 53.50  0.01  25.70   2106.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  85.10 53.80  0.00  28.45   2135.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  85.00 54.00  0.02  28.50   2163.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  83.30 54.20  0.01  27.75   2191.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  79.80 53.40  0.05  25.60   2217.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  80.40 52.60  0.01  25.50   2242.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  82.70 53.70  0.00  27.20   2269.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.90 53.90  0.01  26.90   2296.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.80 54.10  0.00  27.45   2324.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.30  0.02  26.60   2350.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  83.40 54.20  0.04  27.80   2378.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.00 53.20  0.00  28.60   2407.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.60 53.90  0.00  28.25   2435.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  84.60 53.70  0.00  28.15   2463.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.60 53.40  0.00  28.00   2491.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.50  0.00  28.90   2520.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.10 55.30  0.00  28.70   2549.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.10  0.00  27.70   2577.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.10 53.10  0.01  28.10   2605.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.60 54.70  0.00  28.65   2633.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.30 53.80  0.00  27.05   2660.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.40 53.60  0.00  28.00   2688.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  87.20 53.60  0.00  29.40   2718.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.80 53.50  0.00  28.15   2746.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.00 54.60  0.00  27.80   2774.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.70 53.80  0.00  26.25   2800.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.90 54.10  0.00  25.50   2825.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  79.90 53.50  0.00  25.70   2851.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.40 52.90  0.04  26.15   2877.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.60 54.40  0.04  28.00   2905.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.10 53.70  0.01  26.90   2932.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.40 53.70  0.00  28.05   2960.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.40 56.20  0.00  29.80   2990.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.50 56.10  0.00  29.30   3019.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  86.00 54.40  0.00  29.20   3049.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 55.10  0.00  29.65   3078.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.70 55.20  0.04  28.95   3107.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  83.90 54.90  0.04  28.40   3136.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.90 53.00  0.03  25.95   3161.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.80 52.00  0.00  24.90   3186.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 51.40  0.00  24.95   3211.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.20 52.00  0.00  25.60   3237.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  82.40 52.30  0.03  26.35   3263.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.60 52.00  0.00  26.30   3290.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.00 51.90  0.02  26.45   3316.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.00 52.90  0.01  27.45   3343.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.40 53.60  0.03  26.50   3370.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.20 53.30  0.04  24.25   3394.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 52.00  0.03  22.85   3417.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.20  0.00  22.10   3439.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.70 50.60  0.00  24.15   3463.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.40 50.50  0.00  24.95   3488.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.00 50.90  0.02  24.95   3513.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.50 51.00  0.03  24.25   3537.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.40 51.70  0.18  24.55   3562.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.40 50.20  0.04  24.30   3586.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 50.50  0.01  24.90   3611.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.40 51.20  0.00  24.80   3636.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.60 51.30  0.00  24.95   3661.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  84.10 50.00  0.00  26.05   3687.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.70 50.70  0.00  27.70   3715.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  83.40 51.60  0.00  26.50   3741.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.60 51.90  0.00  23.75   3765.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.40 51.60  0.01  23.00   3788.4  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt
QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-6-17: 495 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 5 days behind 2016 ok
 15 days behind 2015 ok
 12 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 4-15-17: 1495 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-17-17: 1002 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-25-17: 603 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 33 days behind 2015 ok
 1 day ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-16-17 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-17 961peak female adult emergence
 5-25-17 1005peak egg laying
 6-9-17 1287peak egg hatch
 7-13-17 2081peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)