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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 55.40 44.60 0.23 9.00 9.0 * START *
1 2 48.90 39.20 0.11 3.39 12.4
1 3 57.20 44.10 0.28 9.65 22.0
1 4 46.90 39.20 0.05 2.43 24.5
1 5 46.90 42.80 0.43 3.85 28.3
1 6 51.80 42.80 1.19 6.30 34.6
1 7 54.00 46.00 0.17 9.00 43.6
1 8 46.90 36.00 0.18 1.97 45.6
1 9 41.00 33.10 0.01 0.00 45.6
1 10 46.40 39.20 1.27 2.19 47.8
1 11 46.90 39.20 0.41 2.43 50.2
1 12 44.60 35.60 0.85 1.01 51.2
1 13 39.20 35.10 0.24 0.00 51.2
1 14 39.90 33.10 0.03 0.00 51.2
1 15 42.80 33.10 0.26 0.34 51.5
1 16 43.00 33.10 0.03 0.39 51.9
1 17 42.80 30.20 0.15 0.29 52.2
1 18 48.90 39.20 0.08 3.39 55.6
1 19 54.00 42.10 0.00 7.05 62.7
1 20 46.90 42.80 0.11 3.85 66.5
1 21 46.90 42.10 0.33 3.50 70.0
1 22 52.00 44.10 0.13 7.05 77.1
1 23 55.40 51.80 0.36 12.60 89.7
1 24 54.00 48.00 0.15 10.00 99.7
1 25 55.40 46.40 0.21 9.90 109.6
1 26 55.40 45.00 0.08 9.20 118.8
1 27 52.00 42.80 1.56 6.40 125.2
1 28 53.60 46.40 0.23 9.00 134.2
1 29 48.20 48.00 0.33 7.10 141.3
1 30 52.00 41.00 0.43 5.50 146.8
1 31 59.00 51.10 0.06 14.05 160.8
2 1 57.90 37.40 0.52 7.30 168.1
2 2 45.00 30.00 0.04 0.90 169.0
2 3 45.00 28.00 0.29 0.84 169.9
2 4 39.90 28.40 0.09 0.00 169.9
2 5 46.40 39.00 0.46 2.15 172.0
2 6 53.60 44.60 1.40 8.10 180.1
2 7 52.00 44.60 0.41 7.30 187.4
2 8 46.90 39.00 0.09 2.39 189.8
2 9 48.90 33.80 0.00 2.58 192.4
2 10 51.80 35.10 0.00 4.00 196.4
2 11 45.00 33.10 0.04 1.02 197.4
2 12 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 201.5
2 13 43.00 33.10 0.15 0.39 201.9
2 14 48.20 39.00 0.18 3.00 204.9
2 15 45.00 42.10 0.28 2.55 207.4
2 16 50.00 35.60 0.09 3.26 210.7
2 17 50.00 35.10 0.11 3.20 213.9
2 18 51.80 28.90 0.00 3.33 217.2
2 19 57.90 24.80 0.00 5.44 222.7
2 20 59.00 26.10 0.00 6.03 228.7
2 21 57.20 26.10 0.00 5.28 234.0
2 22 51.80 33.10 0.00 3.74 237.7
2 23 50.00 39.20 0.38 3.92 241.6
2 24 50.00 34.00 0.01 3.07 244.7
2 25 54.00 33.10 0.04 4.70 249.4
2 26 55.40 36.00 0.27 5.81 255.2
2 27 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 264.0
2 28 54.00 35.10 0.27 5.00 269.0
2 29 45.00 32.00 0.35 0.97 270.0
3 1 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 272.1
3 2 45.00 41.00 0.02 2.00 274.1
3 3 57.90 44.60 0.06 10.25 284.3
3 4 55.40 39.00 0.21 6.50 290.8
3 5 57.20 33.10 0.08 6.14 297.0
3 6 46.40 39.00 0.15 2.15 299.1
3 7 44.60 35.60 0.13 1.01 300.2
3 8 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 302.9
3 9 55.40 26.60 0.00 4.58 307.4
3 10 60.10 28.00 0.00 6.73 314.2
3 11 55.40 34.00 0.01 5.46 319.6
3 12 55.40 26.60 0.00 4.58 324.2
3 13 43.00 33.80 0.25 0.41 324.6
3 14 46.40 30.00 0.37 1.36 326.0
3 15 37.90 26.60 0.01 0.00 326.0
3 16 62.60 27.00 0.00 7.70 333.7
3 17 62.60 28.00 0.00 7.83 341.5
3 18 57.90 35.60 0.00 6.91 348.4
3 19 64.40 30.00 0.00 8.93 357.3
3 20 66.90 32.00 0.00 10.44 367.8
3 21 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 375.8
3 22 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 383.8
3 23 52.00 43.00 0.12 6.50 390.3
3 24 50.00 39.00 0.18 3.87 394.2
3 25 50.00 36.00 0.09 3.32 397.5
3 26 48.20 35.10 0.11 2.42 399.9
3 27 48.20 42.10 0.06 4.15 404.1
3 28 53.60 46.40 0.15 9.00 413.1
3 29 57.20 46.40 0.19 10.80 423.9
3 30 52.00 42.10 0.43 6.05 429.9
3 31 48.90 39.20 1.87 3.39 433.3
4 1 53.60 37.40 0.03 5.24 438.6
4 2 52.00 35.10 0.01 4.09 442.6
4 3 48.90 33.80 0.01 2.58 445.2
4 4 55.40 33.80 0.01 5.43 450.7
4 5 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 462.4
4 6 64.40 35.10 0.00 9.90 472.2
4 7 60.80 33.10 0.00 7.80 480.0
4 8 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 493.1
4 9 73.90 42.10 0.00 17.00 510.1
4 10 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 522.7
4 11 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 532.0
4 12 66.20 30.20 0.00 9.79 541.8
4 13 68.00 30.20 0.00 10.63 552.4
4 14 64.90 35.60 0.00 10.25 562.7
4 15 69.80 48.00 0.01 17.90 580.6
4 16 73.40 39.00 0.00 15.41 596.0
4 17 77.00 35.60 0.00 16.14 612.1
4 18 55.90 48.20 1.18 11.05 623.2
4 19 59.00 43.00 0.10 10.00 633.2
4 20 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 646.0
4 21 59.00 45.00 0.00 11.00 657.0
4 22 57.20 44.10 0.07 9.65 666.6
4 23 60.80 48.00 0.03 13.40 680.0
4 24 60.80 48.00 0.01 13.40 693.4
4 25 64.40 46.00 0.09 14.20 707.6
4 26 66.20 39.00 0.04 11.83 719.4
4 27 64.90 46.90 0.01 14.90 734.3
4 28 69.80 42.10 0.01 14.95 749.3
4 29 71.60 51.10 0.01 20.35 769.6
4 30 63.00 41.00 0.01 11.00 780.6
5 1 63.00 35.10 0.13 9.23 789.9
5 2 57.90 46.40 0.00 11.15 801.0
5 3 57.90 41.00 0.15 8.45 809.5
5 4 68.00 39.00 0.02 12.72 822.2
5 5 73.90 46.90 0.66 19.40 841.6
5 6 62.60 42.10 0.39 11.35 852.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 7 73.90 37.40 0.01 15.13 868.1
5 8 84.20 42.80 0.01 22.50 890.6
5 9 90.00 48.00 0.01 28.00 918.6
5 10 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 947.1
5 11 64.90 51.10 0.01 17.00 964.1 Peak female adult emergence
5 12 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 980.3
5 13 64.40 51.10 0.01 16.75 997.1
5 14 60.80 50.00 0.98 14.40 1011.5 Peak egg laying
5 15 66.20 51.10 0.12 17.65 1029.1
5 16 68.00 51.80 0.68 18.90 1048.0
5 17 68.00 52.00 0.03 19.00 1067.0
5 18 66.90 50.00 0.01 17.45 1084.5
5 19 62.60 51.80 0.01 16.20 1100.7
5 20 57.90 48.90 0.11 12.40 1113.1
5 21 57.90 46.90 0.45 11.40 1124.5
5 22 61.00 46.00 0.06 12.50 1137.0
5 23 61.00 50.00 0.02 14.50 1151.5
5 24 73.40 46.40 0.01 18.90 1170.4
5 25 62.60 51.10 0.01 15.85 1186.2
5 26 69.80 50.00 0.01 18.90 1205.1
5 27 82.40 44.60 0.00 22.50 1227.6
5 28 91.00 51.80 0.00 30.40 1258.0
5 29 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1283.0 Peak egg hatch
5 30 59.00 51.80 1.66 14.40 1297.4
5 31 62.60 46.00 0.08 13.30 1310.7
6 1 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 1325.1
6 2 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 1342.2
6 3 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 1363.1
6 4 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 1381.2
6 5 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1401.0
6 6 57.20 50.00 0.69 12.60 1413.6
6 7 63.00 48.00 0.01 14.50 1428.1
6 8 61.00 51.80 0.51 15.40 1443.5
6 9 64.90 50.00 3.14 16.45 1459.9
6 10 73.90 57.00 0.12 24.45 1484.4
6 11 75.20 57.00 0.03 25.10 1509.5
6 12 61.00 54.00 0.07 16.50 1526.0
6 13 60.80 48.00 0.11 13.40 1539.4
6 14 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 1554.7
6 15 62.10 51.80 0.00 15.95 1570.6
6 16 68.00 51.80 0.01 18.90 1589.5
6 17 71.60 48.20 0.01 18.90 1608.4
6 18 81.00 48.20 0.03 23.60 1632.0
6 19 84.90 51.10 0.02 27.00 1659.0
6 20 68.00 60.10 0.04 23.05 1682.1
6 21 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1704.6
6 22 86.00 50.00 0.01 27.00 1731.6
6 23 89.60 57.00 0.11 32.30 1763.9
6 24 75.20 59.00 0.01 26.10 1790.0
6 25 84.20 57.20 0.03 29.70 1819.7
6 26 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 1846.7
6 27 64.40 55.00 0.01 18.70 1865.4
6 28 69.80 53.10 0.39 20.45 1885.8
6 29 70.00 53.10 0.03 20.55 1906.4
6 30 64.90 54.00 0.01 18.45 1924.8
7 1 64.00 53.10 0.02 17.55 1942.4
7 2 66.20 53.10 0.00 18.65 1961.0
7 3 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 1980.0
7 4 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1999.6
7 5 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 2021.4
7 6 66.20 51.10 0.00 17.65 2039.1
7 7 66.90 55.00 0.02 19.95 2059.0
7 8 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2081.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 9 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2104.0
7 10 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 2128.5
7 11 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 2147.9
7 12 73.40 54.00 0.00 22.70 2170.6
7 13 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 2193.1
7 14 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 2219.8
7 15 82.40 55.90 0.00 28.15 2247.9
7 16 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 2274.6
7 17 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 2297.9
7 18 84.00 51.10 0.00 26.55 2324.4
7 19 89.10 57.20 0.00 32.15 2356.6
7 20 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 2390.1
7 21 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 2418.1
7 22 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 2444.7
7 23 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2468.1
7 24 69.80 55.90 0.00 21.85 2490.0
7 25 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 2513.4
7 26 93.90 57.20 0.00 34.55 2547.9
7 27 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 2582.1
7 28 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 2611.8
7 29 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 2641.5
7 30 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 2674.8
7 31 81.00 60.80 0.00 29.90 2704.7
8 1 80.60 60.10 0.00 29.35 2734.1
8 2 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 2764.3
8 3 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2792.4
8 4 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 2823.0
8 5 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 2851.0
8 6 72.00 57.20 0.04 23.60 2874.6
8 7 75.00 51.10 0.01 22.05 2896.7
8 8 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2922.8
8 9 82.40 51.10 0.00 25.75 2948.5
8 10 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 2978.1
8 11 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 3000.6
8 12 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 3021.2
8 13 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 3040.2
8 14 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 3066.2
8 15 96.80 60.10 0.00 37.45 3103.6
8 16 93.90 59.00 0.00 35.45 3139.1
8 17 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 3172.9
8 18 82.40 61.00 0.00 30.70 3203.6
8 19 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 3232.4
8 20 82.40 62.10 0.01 31.25 3263.7
8 21 75.20 59.00 0.02 26.10 3289.8
8 22 77.00 57.00 0.02 26.00 3315.8
8 23 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 3340.1
8 24 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3361.7
8 25 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3386.0
8 26 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 3410.5
8 27 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3434.8
8 28 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 3461.5
8 29 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 3483.8
8 30 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 3502.4
8 31 75.20 55.40 0.01 24.30 3526.7
9 1 87.10 55.00 0.00 30.05 3556.8
9 2 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 3587.3
9 3 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 3621.7
9 4 78.80 57.00 0.00 26.90 3648.6
9 5 75.00 57.20 0.01 25.10 3673.7
9 6 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 3705.2
9 7 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 3737.6
9 8 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 3764.6
9 9 91.40 46.40 0.00 27.90 3792.5
9 10 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 3817.9
9 11 61.00 51.80 0.00 15.40 3833.3
9 12 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 3850.8
9 13 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 3869.7
9 14 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 3892.3
9 15 73.90 60.80 0.00 26.35 3918.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-6-20 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-11-20 | 964 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-14-20 | 1011 | Peak egg laying |
5-29-20 | 1283 | Peak egg hatch |
7-8-20 | 2082 | Peak in density large larvae |