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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.00 30.00 0.02 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 45.00 28.00 0.04 0.84 0.8
1 3 55.00 44.60 0.11 8.80 9.6
1 4 52.00 42.80 0.01 6.40 16.0
1 5 46.40 37.40 0.14 1.91 18.0
1 6 46.40 39.00 0.11 2.15 20.1
1 7 44.60 35.10 0.01 0.98 21.1
1 8 46.40 35.60 0.15 1.72 22.8
1 9 48.90 39.20 0.35 3.39 26.2
1 10 54.00 42.10 0.03 7.05 33.2
1 11 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 35.5
1 12 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 39.5
1 13 52.00 27.00 0.01 3.26 42.8
1 14 53.60 26.10 0.00 3.82 46.6
1 15 46.40 26.10 0.00 1.22 47.8
1 16 48.90 28.00 0.07 2.15 50.0
1 17 54.00 35.60 0.20 5.08 55.1
1 18 48.20 44.10 0.60 5.15 60.2
1 19 48.90 41.00 0.01 3.95 64.2
1 20 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 65.9
1 21 45.00 33.80 0.00 1.06 66.9
1 22 46.90 41.00 0.39 2.95 69.9
1 23 53.60 45.00 0.13 8.30 78.2
1 24 52.00 36.00 0.00 4.23 82.4
1 25 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 86.5
1 26 46.90 36.00 0.00 1.97 88.5
1 27 44.60 36.00 0.00 1.04 89.5
1 28 50.00 30.90 0.00 2.77 92.3
1 29 54.00 26.10 0.00 3.98 96.2
1 30 52.00 26.10 0.00 3.19 99.4
1 31 51.80 30.20 0.02 3.44 102.9
2 1 46.90 39.20 0.19 2.43 105.3
2 2 48.90 39.00 0.14 3.34 108.6
2 3 43.00 36.00 0.63 0.47 109.1
2 4 37.90 28.40 0.18 0.00 109.1
2 5 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 109.1
2 6 39.20 17.60 0.00 0.00 109.1
2 7 39.90 17.60 0.00 0.00 109.1
2 8 36.00 24.80 0.38 0.00 109.1
2 9 39.20 30.00 0.01 0.00 109.1
2 10 37.40 24.80 0.30 0.00 109.1
2 11 44.60 33.10 2.50 0.88 110.0
2 12 42.80 37.40 0.85 0.46 110.5
2 13 46.00 37.00 0.05 1.69 112.1
2 14 43.00 35.10 0.21 0.44 112.6
2 15 46.90 37.40 0.27 2.13 114.7
2 16 43.00 35.10 0.26 0.44 115.2
2 17 44.10 30.20 0.00 0.64 115.8
2 18 43.00 28.00 0.01 0.31 116.1
2 19 42.80 37.00 0.19 0.44 116.5
2 20 48.00 30.00 0.07 1.94 118.5
2 21 48.90 24.80 0.01 1.99 120.5
2 22 39.20 30.00 0.25 0.00 120.5
2 23 45.00 30.20 0.03 0.91 121.4
2 24 44.60 33.80 0.20 0.92 122.3
2 25 41.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 122.3
2 26 42.80 21.20 0.01 0.22 122.5
2 27 39.90 30.20 0.08 0.00 122.5
2 28 42.80 30.00 0.01 0.29 122.8
3 1 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 126.8
3 2 54.00 24.10 0.00 3.82 130.6
3 3 48.20 21.20 0.00 1.62 132.3
3 4 46.40 19.40 0.00 1.05 133.3
3 5 48.90 17.10 0.05 1.72 135.0
3 6 37.90 26.60 0.15 0.00 135.0
3 7 46.90 28.40 0.08 1.46 136.5
3 8 41.00 28.00 0.05 0.00 136.5
3 9 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 139.2
3 10 55.40 23.00 0.00 4.29 143.5
3 11 53.60 24.80 0.48 3.72 147.2
3 12 48.90 37.40 1.80 3.03 150.2
3 13 54.00 35.10 0.01 5.00 155.2
3 14 55.90 32.00 0.00 5.40 160.6
3 15 64.40 33.10 0.00 9.48 170.1
3 16 63.00 35.10 0.00 9.23 179.3
3 17 71.60 30.20 0.00 12.31 191.6
3 18 75.90 32.00 0.00 14.72 206.4
3 19 77.00 35.10 0.00 16.00 222.4
3 20 77.00 35.60 0.00 16.14 238.5
3 21 60.80 42.10 0.00 10.45 249.0
3 22 55.90 35.10 0.10 5.88 254.8
3 23 59.00 41.00 0.09 9.00 263.8
3 24 61.00 39.90 0.00 9.56 273.4
3 25 50.00 37.00 0.21 3.47 276.9
3 26 60.80 39.90 0.17 9.46 286.3
3 27 52.00 35.60 0.11 4.16 290.5
3 28 62.60 36.00 0.08 9.24 299.7
3 29 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 310.2
3 30 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 323.7
3 31 71.60 35.60 0.00 13.50 337.2
4 1 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 353.4
4 2 62.60 48.20 0.01 14.40 367.8
4 3 61.00 43.00 0.08 11.00 378.8
4 4 60.80 42.80 0.16 10.80 389.6
4 5 57.90 46.40 0.44 11.15 400.7
4 6 61.00 44.60 0.91 11.80 412.5
4 7 55.90 46.00 2.00 9.95 422.5
4 8 57.20 48.00 0.42 11.60 434.1
4 9 55.00 46.00 0.06 9.50 443.6
4 10 52.00 46.00 0.55 8.00 451.6
4 11 52.00 46.40 0.29 8.20 459.8
4 12 61.00 46.40 0.01 12.70 472.5
4 13 48.90 44.10 0.25 5.50 478.0
4 14 52.00 39.20 0.05 4.89 482.9
4 15 54.00 35.60 0.10 5.08 488.0
4 16 59.00 44.10 0.07 10.55 498.5
4 17 63.00 48.20 0.18 14.60 513.1
4 18 75.20 48.00 0.01 20.60 533.7
4 19 57.20 51.10 0.34 13.15 546.9
4 20 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 562.2
4 21 61.00 42.80 0.00 10.90 573.1
4 22 60.80 39.00 0.08 9.16 582.2
4 23 60.80 46.90 0.01 12.85 595.1
4 24 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 607.7
4 25 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 623.5
4 26 61.00 46.40 0.00 12.70 636.2
4 27 55.90 41.00 0.03 7.45 643.7
4 28 64.90 32.00 0.00 9.51 653.2
4 29 68.00 37.90 0.00 12.38 665.6
4 30 70.00 37.40 0.00 13.21 678.8
5 1 64.90 35.10 0.00 10.14 688.9
5 2 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 701.5
5 3 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 714.1
5 4 73.40 42.10 0.00 16.75 730.8
5 5 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 749.7
5 6 82.00 46.40 0.00 23.20 772.9
5 7 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 793.6
5 8 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 817.1
5 9 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 843.1
5 10 88.00 48.00 0.00 27.00 870.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 11 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 891.2
5 12 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 910.1
5 13 70.00 46.40 0.00 17.20 927.3
5 14 63.00 53.10 0.33 17.05 944.3
5 15 64.40 48.00 0.02 15.20 959.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 16 59.00 51.80 0.25 14.40 973.9
5 17 64.40 51.10 0.01 16.75 990.7
5 18 73.40 51.10 0.45 21.25 1011.9 Peak egg laying
5 19 63.00 51.80 0.04 16.40 1028.3
5 20 61.00 51.10 0.01 15.05 1043.4
5 21 66.20 48.20 0.10 16.20 1059.6
5 22 72.00 46.00 0.00 18.00 1077.6
5 23 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 1099.4
5 24 59.00 51.80 0.01 14.40 1113.8
5 25 55.90 50.00 0.23 11.95 1125.7
5 26 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1146.7
5 27 69.80 55.90 0.00 21.85 1168.5
5 28 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1188.0
5 29 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1207.5
5 30 75.00 53.10 0.00 23.05 1230.6
5 31 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1254.9
6 1 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1277.4 Peak egg hatch
6 2 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 1299.2
6 3 71.60 48.90 0.00 19.25 1318.5
6 4 75.20 41.00 0.00 17.10 1335.6
6 5 64.90 52.00 0.01 17.45 1353.0
6 6 61.00 42.80 0.27 10.90 1363.9
6 7 61.00 48.00 0.35 13.50 1377.4
6 8 68.00 50.00 0.01 18.00 1395.4
6 9 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 1415.3
6 10 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 1441.7
6 11 90.00 62.10 0.00 35.05 1476.7
6 12 97.00 60.10 0.00 37.55 1514.3
6 13 73.90 55.40 0.00 23.65 1537.9
6 14 66.90 54.00 0.00 19.45 1557.4
6 15 73.90 53.60 0.00 22.75 1580.1
6 16 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1602.6
6 17 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 1627.7
6 18 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1648.2
6 19 66.20 50.00 0.02 17.10 1665.3
6 20 66.20 51.80 0.22 18.00 1683.3
6 21 66.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 1703.3
6 22 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1723.8
6 23 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 1742.8
6 24 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 1759.0
6 25 69.80 46.40 0.02 17.10 1776.1
6 26 73.40 55.40 0.44 23.40 1799.5
6 27 64.90 55.00 0.03 18.95 1818.4
6 28 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 1839.3
6 29 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 1861.9
6 30 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 1887.9
7 1 73.40 57.00 0.00 24.20 1912.1
7 2 66.20 55.40 0.01 19.80 1931.9
7 3 71.10 57.20 0.00 23.15 1955.1
7 4 73.90 57.20 0.00 24.55 1979.6
7 5 70.00 60.10 0.00 24.05 2003.7
7 6 70.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 2026.2
7 7 71.60 55.00 0.02 22.30 2048.5
7 8 73.90 57.90 0.00 24.90 2073.4 Peak in density large larvae
7 9 73.40 53.60 0.25 22.50 2095.9
7 10 75.20 60.80 0.11 27.00 2122.9
7 11 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 2150.8
7 12 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2178.9
7 13 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 2207.3
7 14 82.40 53.60 0.07 27.00 2234.3
7 15 70.00 60.80 0.07 24.40 2258.7
7 16 79.00 61.00 0.66 29.00 2287.7
7 17 70.00 60.10 0.20 24.05 2311.8
7 18 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 2335.0
7 19 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 2355.9
7 20 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 2381.1
7 21 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2408.1
7 22 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2436.0
7 23 73.00 57.90 0.00 24.45 2460.5
7 24 80.60 54.00 0.01 26.30 2486.8
7 25 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 2516.5
7 26 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 2545.1
7 27 77.00 57.90 0.13 26.45 2571.5
7 28 84.00 51.80 0.00 26.90 2598.4
7 29 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2624.5
7 30 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 2652.5
7 31 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 2679.5
8 1 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 2712.5
8 2 75.90 64.00 0.09 28.95 2741.4
8 3 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 2771.9
8 4 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 2802.7
8 5 81.00 62.10 0.00 30.55 2833.3
8 6 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 2861.7
8 7 73.90 60.10 0.00 26.00 2887.7
8 8 70.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 2912.1
8 9 73.90 60.80 0.14 26.35 2938.5
8 10 77.00 60.10 0.02 27.55 2966.0
8 11 73.90 57.20 0.02 24.55 2990.6
8 12 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 3018.5
8 13 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 3048.3
8 14 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 3077.1
8 15 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 3105.1
8 16 72.00 60.80 0.00 25.40 3130.5
8 17 70.00 60.10 0.01 24.05 3154.6
8 18 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 3179.8
8 19 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 3205.8
8 20 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 3231.8
8 21 68.00 55.40 0.18 20.70 3252.5
8 22 73.90 52.00 0.00 21.95 3274.4
8 23 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3298.7
8 24 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 3323.8
8 25 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 3349.0
8 26 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 3375.7
8 27 95.00 54.00 0.00 33.50 3409.2
8 28 93.90 53.60 0.00 32.75 3441.9
8 29 77.00 60.80 0.09 27.90 3469.8
8 30 75.00 57.90 0.00 25.45 3495.3
8 31 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 3521.6
9 1 80.10 60.80 0.00 29.45 3551.0
9 2 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3580.7
9 3 75.90 60.10 0.00 27.00 3607.7
9 4 77.00 60.10 0.00 27.55 3635.3
9 5 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 3664.4
9 6 70.00 62.10 0.13 25.05 3689.5
9 7 66.90 61.00 0.00 22.95 3712.4
9 8 66.90 60.10 0.56 22.50 3734.9
9 9 66.90 57.20 0.71 21.05 3756.0
9 10 72.00 55.90 0.00 22.95 3778.9
9 11 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 3802.1
9 12 79.00 48.20 0.25 22.60 3824.7
9 13 73.90 59.00 0.96 25.45 3850.2
9 14 73.90 57.20 0.05 24.55 3874.7
9 15 62.60 55.90 0.63 18.25 3893.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-10-19 | 870 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-15-19 | 960 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-18-19 | 1012 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-19 | 1277 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-8-19 | 2073 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2345420)
