|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 43.00 30.00 0.00 0.34 0.3 * START *
1 2 44.60 30.00 0.00 0.78 1.1
1 3 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 2.8
1 4 51.80 33.80 0.17 3.82 6.7
1 5 48.00 39.20 0.20 2.95 9.6
1 6 48.20 39.00 0.06 3.00 12.6
1 7 45.00 41.00 0.79 2.00 14.6
1 8 44.60 42.10 0.40 2.35 17.0
1 9 48.20 39.00 0.06 3.00 20.0
1 10 46.90 37.40 0.06 2.13 22.1
1 11 55.90 46.00 0.88 9.95 32.1
1 12 52.00 48.00 0.04 9.00 41.1
1 13 60.80 44.10 0.00 11.45 52.5
1 14 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 65.1
1 15 59.00 39.00 0.03 8.27 73.3
1 16 55.40 41.00 0.17 7.20 80.5
1 17 53.60 44.10 0.52 7.85 88.4
1 18 48.90 42.80 0.24 4.85 93.2
1 19 46.90 42.80 0.13 3.85 97.1
1 20 48.90 42.10 0.02 4.50 101.6
1 21 48.90 42.80 0.36 4.85 106.4
1 22 48.90 42.10 0.26 4.50 110.9
1 23 50.00 42.10 0.92 5.05 116.0
1 24 51.80 41.00 0.32 5.40 121.4
1 25 46.90 37.40 0.18 2.13 123.5
1 26 45.00 39.00 0.36 1.51 125.0
1 27 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 130.4
1 28 57.90 46.00 0.01 10.95 141.4
1 29 52.00 43.00 0.77 6.50 147.9
1 30 50.00 37.00 0.26 3.47 151.3
1 31 45.00 37.00 0.01 1.27 152.6
2 1 46.90 42.10 0.43 3.50 156.1
2 2 54.00 46.40 0.15 9.20 165.3
2 3 52.00 48.00 0.05 9.00 174.3
2 4 55.90 48.20 0.16 11.05 185.4
2 5 54.00 46.00 0.03 9.00 194.4
2 6 51.80 44.60 0.27 7.20 201.6
2 7 57.90 42.10 0.00 9.00 210.6
2 8 50.00 42.80 0.04 5.40 216.0
2 9 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 218.7
2 10 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 221.4
2 11 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 223.1
2 12 48.20 26.10 0.00 1.81 224.9
2 13 50.00 24.10 0.41 2.34 227.3
2 14 46.40 33.80 0.06 1.58 228.8
2 15 46.40 33.80 0.10 1.58 230.4
2 16 46.90 41.00 0.25 2.95 233.4
2 17 53.10 39.90 0.66 5.64 239.0
2 18 39.20 28.90 0.47 0.00 239.0
2 19 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 239.0
2 20 36.00 28.40 0.30 0.00 239.0
2 21 36.00 19.00 0.08 0.00 239.0
2 22 37.90 23.00 0.02 0.00 239.0
2 23 36.00 19.00 0.14 0.00 239.0
2 24 48.90 33.10 0.21 2.51 241.5
2 25 42.80 33.10 0.56 0.34 241.9
2 26 44.60 33.10 0.05 0.88 242.7
2 27 43.00 35.60 0.04 0.45 243.2
2 28 46.40 37.40 0.43 1.91 245.1
3 1 48.20 39.00 0.07 3.00 248.1
3 2 48.90 37.00 0.01 2.97 251.1
3 3 53.60 30.00 0.00 4.16 255.2
3 4 48.90 28.00 0.08 2.15 257.4
3 5 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 260.3
3 6 57.20 26.60 0.02 5.33 265.6
3 7 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 269.9
3 8 54.00 37.40 0.48 5.43 275.4
3 9 54.00 34.00 0.01 4.83 280.2
3 10 64.90 30.00 0.00 9.16 289.4
3 11 69.80 35.60 0.00 12.63 302.0
3 12 72.00 33.80 0.00 13.25 315.2
3 13 55.40 44.10 0.51 8.75 324.0
3 14 51.80 37.40 0.06 4.38 328.4
3 15 55.40 30.00 0.00 4.93 333.3
3 16 52.00 37.40 0.24 4.48 337.8
3 17 52.00 37.00 0.01 4.40 342.2
3 18 52.00 37.40 0.14 4.48 346.7
3 19 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 353.9
3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 361.0
3 21 53.60 30.20 0.56 4.19 365.2
3 22 50.00 39.00 0.55 3.87 369.0
3 23 46.90 37.00 3.17 2.08 371.1
3 24 41.00 35.60 0.22 0.00 371.1
3 25 51.80 37.00 0.03 4.31 375.4
3 26 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 378.1
3 27 51.80 44.60 0.28 7.20 385.3
3 28 54.00 41.00 0.00 6.50 391.8
3 29 60.80 39.00 0.00 9.16 401.0
3 30 55.90 42.80 0.00 8.35 409.4
3 31 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 421.3
4 1 46.40 37.40 0.28 1.91 423.2
4 2 54.00 34.00 0.09 4.83 428.0
4 3 51.80 28.40 0.05 3.29 431.3
4 4 55.40 42.80 0.08 8.10 439.4
4 5 54.00 46.40 0.23 9.20 448.6
4 6 68.00 51.80 0.04 18.90 467.5
4 7 64.00 46.40 0.98 14.20 481.7
4 8 53.60 46.40 0.21 9.00 490.7
4 9 66.90 39.00 0.01 12.18 502.9
4 10 62.60 48.00 0.16 14.30 517.2
4 11 55.90 42.80 0.44 8.35 525.5
4 12 54.00 41.00 0.19 6.50 532.0
4 13 53.60 44.60 0.38 8.10 540.1
4 14 57.20 48.20 0.36 11.70 551.8
4 15 50.00 44.10 0.41 6.05 557.9
4 16 48.90 42.10 0.25 4.50 562.4
4 17 54.00 42.10 0.03 7.05 569.4
4 18 60.80 39.00 0.04 9.16 578.6
4 19 66.20 35.10 0.00 10.76 589.3
4 20 63.00 37.40 0.00 9.78 599.1
4 21 60.80 41.00 0.01 9.90 609.0
4 22 63.00 37.40 0.00 9.78 618.8
4 23 78.80 35.60 0.00 17.02 635.8
4 24 82.90 39.00 0.00 20.13 655.9
4 25 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 680.2
4 26 73.00 44.60 0.00 17.80 698.0
4 27 55.90 48.90 4.62 11.40 709.4
4 28 59.00 46.00 0.04 11.50 720.9
4 29 57.90 44.10 0.09 10.00 730.9
4 30 59.00 46.00 0.12 11.50 742.4
5 1 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 755.9
5 2 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 774.6
5 3 71.60 46.00 0.00 17.80 792.4
5 4 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 810.4
5 5 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 830.2
5 6 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 848.2
5 7 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 871.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 8 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 893.2
5 9 66.20 53.10 0.03 18.65 911.9
5 10 62.60 48.90 0.11 14.75 926.6
5 11 68.00 42.10 0.00 14.05 940.7
5 12 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 965.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 13 89.60 48.00 0.00 27.80 993.3
5 14 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 1020.3 Peak egg laying
5 15 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1040.8
5 16 64.90 53.60 0.00 18.25 1059.1
5 17 63.00 52.00 0.01 16.50 1075.6
5 18 66.20 51.10 0.00 17.65 1093.2
5 19 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 1114.0
5 20 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1132.6
5 21 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1150.6
5 22 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 1174.0
5 23 75.20 54.00 0.00 23.60 1197.6
5 24 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1219.6
5 25 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1239.0
5 26 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 1253.2
5 27 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 1272.1 Peak egg hatch
5 28 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1288.3
5 29 64.90 44.60 0.00 13.75 1302.1
5 30 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 1314.8
5 31 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1329.2
6 1 69.80 44.10 0.00 15.95 1345.2
6 2 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1368.5
6 3 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1386.5
6 4 66.90 46.00 0.00 15.45 1401.9
6 5 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 1417.8
6 6 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 1436.4
6 7 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1456.6
6 8 63.00 53.10 0.31 17.05 1473.6
6 9 62.60 48.90 0.04 14.75 1488.4
6 10 60.80 48.20 0.37 13.50 1501.9
6 11 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 1520.0
6 12 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 1538.0
6 13 66.90 53.10 0.10 19.00 1557.0
6 14 64.40 51.80 0.01 17.10 1574.1
6 15 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1593.6
6 16 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 1619.5
6 17 90.00 53.10 0.00 30.55 1650.1
6 18 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 1676.9
6 19 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1707.5
6 20 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 1737.4
6 21 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1759.0
6 22 72.00 57.20 0.00 23.60 1782.6
6 23 75.20 57.20 0.01 25.20 1807.8
6 24 86.00 51.80 0.11 27.90 1835.7
6 25 64.90 53.10 0.19 18.00 1853.7
6 26 73.50 46.40 0.00 18.95 1872.7 Px
6 27 72.20 49.40 0.00 19.80 1892.5 Px Pn
6 28 70.40 51.80 0.00 20.10 1912.6 Px Pn
6 29 75.90 62.10 0.00 28.00 1940.6
6 30 72.00 59.00 0.01 24.50 1965.1
7 1 70.00 53.10 0.01 20.55 1985.6
7 2 69.80 53.10 0.01 20.45 2006.1
7 3 78.10 44.10 0.00 20.10 2026.2
7 4 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 2049.9
7 5 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2077.2 Peak in density large larvae
7 6 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 2103.1
7 7 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2128.5
7 8 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2154.6
7 9 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 2178.1
7 10 75.90 59.00 0.06 26.45 2204.6
7 11 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 2234.2
7 12 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 2268.4
7 13 84.90 57.20 0.00 30.05 2298.4
7 14 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 2329.9
7 15 97.00 57.20 0.00 36.10 2366.0
7 16 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 2399.9
7 17 80.60 60.10 0.00 29.35 2429.2
7 18 75.20 57.90 0.03 25.55 2454.8
7 19 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 2476.3
7 20 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 2496.2
7 21 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 2517.7
7 22 91.90 51.80 0.00 30.85 2548.6
7 23 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2580.1
7 24 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 2611.5
7 25 91.40 57.00 0.00 33.20 2644.7
7 26 88.00 57.20 0.00 31.60 2676.3
7 27 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 2706.0
7 28 84.20 60.10 0.00 31.15 2737.1
7 29 93.90 60.10 0.00 36.00 2773.1
7 30 79.00 60.10 0.00 28.55 2801.7
7 31 75.90 60.80 0.00 27.35 2829.0
8 1 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 2857.5
8 2 69.80 59.00 0.01 23.40 2880.9
8 3 73.90 57.90 0.04 24.90 2905.8
8 4 84.20 52.00 0.00 27.10 2932.9
8 5 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 2965.4
8 6 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 2996.9
8 7 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 3031.3
8 8 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 3064.3
8 9 91.90 60.80 0.00 35.35 3099.6
8 10 80.10 60.10 0.00 29.10 3128.7
8 11 72.00 60.80 0.05 25.40 3154.1
8 12 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 3180.2
8 13 88.00 57.20 0.00 31.60 3211.8
8 14 93.20 57.00 0.00 34.10 3245.9
8 15 79.00 60.10 0.00 28.55 3274.5
8 16 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 3300.5
8 17 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 3322.1
8 18 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 3349.1
8 19 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 3377.1
8 20 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3406.8
8 21 93.20 53.60 0.00 32.40 3439.2
8 22 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 3465.1
8 23 71.60 55.90 0.01 22.75 3487.8
8 24 72.00 51.80 0.01 20.90 3508.7
8 25 69.10 46.40 0.23 16.75 3525.5
8 26 60.80 57.00 0.32 17.90 3543.4
8 27 77.00 53.10 0.01 24.05 3567.4
8 28 87.80 48.00 0.00 26.90 3594.3
8 29 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3617.7
8 30 73.90 59.00 0.01 25.45 3643.2
8 31 69.80 59.00 0.12 23.40 3666.6
9 1 99.70 83.30 0.00 50.50 3717.1 Px Pn
9 2 91.80 82.20 0.00 46.00 3763.1 Px Pn
9 3 75.90 54.00 0.00 23.95 3787.0
9 4 81.00 44.60 0.00 21.80 3808.8
9 5 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 3838.5
9 6 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 3863.0
9 7 79.00 53.10 0.02 25.05 3888.1
9 8 71.60 57.00 0.07 23.30 3911.4
9 9 77.00 53.10 0.21 24.05 3935.4
9 10 68.00 55.40 0.04 20.70 3956.1
9 11 66.20 55.00 0.84 19.60 3975.7
9 12 64.90 51.80 0.19 17.35 3993.1
9 13 66.20 48.00 0.07 16.10 4009.2
9 14 69.80 51.80 0.01 19.80 4029.0
9 15 63.00 51.10 0.39 16.05 4045.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-7-18 | 872 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-12-18 | 966 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-14-18 | 1020 | Peak egg laying |
5-27-18 | 1272 | Peak egg hatch |
7-5-18 | 2077 | Peak in density large larvae |