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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 45.00 34.70 0.00 1.11 1.1 * START *Hx Hn
1 2 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 1.4
1 3 37.40 19.40 0.00 0.00 1.4
1 4 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 1.4
1 5 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 1.4
1 6 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 1.6
1 7 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 3.2
1 8 48.20 30.20 0.02 2.02 5.2
1 9 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 6.6
1 10 51.80 28.40 0.00 3.29 9.9
1 11 51.80 26.60 0.06 3.15 13.0
1 12 44.60 39.20 0.04 1.36 14.4
1 13 48.20 42.80 0.01 4.50 18.9
1 14 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 20.8
1 15 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 27.1
1 16 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 33.4
1 17 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 38.8
1 18 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 46.0
1 19 46.40 44.60 0.00 4.50 50.5
1 20 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 56.8
1 21 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 63.1
1 22 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 73.0
1 23 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 77.5
1 24 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 81.4
1 25 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 88.0
1 26 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 97.9
1 27 53.60 48.20 0.01 9.90 107.8
1 28 55.40 44.60 0.02 9.00 116.8
1 29 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 122.2
1 30 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 123.3
1 31 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 124.5
2 1 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 125.8
2 2 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 128.0
2 3 44.60 42.80 0.00 2.70 130.7
2 4 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 137.0
2 5 53.60 44.60 0.01 8.10 145.1
2 6 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 150.8
2 7 62.60 35.60 0.00 9.15 159.9
2 8 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 168.7
2 9 64.40 35.60 0.00 10.01 178.7
2 10 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 190.4
2 11 53.60 46.40 0.01 9.00 199.4
2 12 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 210.2
2 13 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 215.6
2 14 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 224.6
2 15 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 238.1
2 16 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 249.8
2 17 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 263.3
2 18 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 268.7
2 19 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 274.1
2 20 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 278.2
2 21 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 281.6
2 22 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 285.4
2 23 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 293.6
2 24 60.80 37.40 0.00 8.71 302.3
2 25 66.20 35.60 0.00 10.88 313.1
2 26 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 319.7
2 27 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 329.6
2 28 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 337.7
2 29 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 343.1
3 1 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 352.1
3 2 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 361.1
3 3 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 372.8
3 4 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 384.5
3 5 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 398.9
3 6 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 408.8
3 7 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 413.6
3 8 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 417.1
3 9 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 426.1
3 10 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 434.2
3 11 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 439.1
3 12 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 445.4
3 13 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 451.7
3 14 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 454.8
3 15 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 457.8
3 16 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 463.9
3 17 64.40 30.20 0.00 8.97 472.9
3 18 66.20 33.80 0.00 10.47 483.4
3 19 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 498.7
3 20 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 510.4
3 21 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 519.4
3 22 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 527.5
3 23 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 535.6
3 24 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 542.8
3 25 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 550.9
3 26 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 560.1
3 27 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 564.9
3 28 57.20 33.80 0.01 6.25 571.1
3 29 64.40 35.60 0.00 10.01 581.2
3 30 73.40 35.60 0.00 14.38 595.5
3 31 73.40 39.20 0.00 15.48 611.0
4 1 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 629.9
4 2 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 648.8
4 3 73.40 39.20 0.00 15.48 664.3
4 4 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 674.2
4 5 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 685.9
4 6 71.60 39.20 0.00 14.58 700.5
4 7 89.60 44.60 0.00 26.10 726.6
4 8 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 746.4
4 9 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 761.7
4 10 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 775.2
4 11 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 788.7
4 12 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 801.3
4 13 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 811.2
4 14 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 820.2
4 15 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 831.0
4 16 71.60 39.20 0.00 14.58 845.5
4 17 86.00 41.00 0.00 22.50 868.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 18 89.60 46.40 0.00 27.00 895.0
4 19 89.60 48.20 0.00 27.90 922.9
4 20 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 945.4
4 21 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 966.1 Peak female adult emergence
4 22 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 978.7
4 23 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 991.3
4 24 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 1000.3 Peak egg laying
4 25 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 1008.6
4 26 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 1016.1
4 27 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1028.7
4 28 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 1039.5
4 29 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 1051.2
4 30 69.80 39.20 0.00 13.69 1064.8
5 1 82.40 44.60 0.00 22.50 1087.3
5 2 87.80 46.40 0.00 26.10 1113.4
5 3 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1134.1
5 4 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1151.2
5 5 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1171.0
5 6 80.60 46.00 0.00 22.30 1193.3
5 7 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1217.6
5 8 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1232.9
5 9 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1250.0
5 10 78.80 44.60 0.00 20.70 1270.7 Peak egg hatch
5 11 84.20 42.80 0.00 22.50 1293.2
5 12 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 1317.5
5 13 82.40 44.60 0.00 22.50 1340.0
5 14 57.20 53.60 0.00 14.40 1354.4
5 15 55.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 1367.0
5 16 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1382.3
5 17 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1402.1
5 18 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1421.9
5 19 55.40 48.00 0.00 10.70 1432.6
5 20 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1448.8
5 21 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 1460.5
5 22 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1476.7
5 23 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1496.5
5 24 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1515.4
5 25 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1533.4
5 26 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1547.8
5 27 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1562.2
5 28 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1579.3
5 29 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1595.5
5 30 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 1613.5
5 31 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 1639.6
6 1 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1667.5
6 2 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1690.9
6 3 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 1720.6
6 4 91.40 66.20 0.00 37.80 1758.4
6 5 93.20 60.80 0.00 36.00 1794.4
6 6 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 1826.8
6 7 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1855.6
6 8 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1875.4
6 9 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1890.7
6 10 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1905.1
6 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1921.3
6 12 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1938.4
6 13 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 1951.9
6 14 59.00 48.20 0.01 12.60 1964.5
6 15 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1978.9
6 16 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1993.3
6 17 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 2008.6
6 18 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 2024.8
6 19 75.20 41.00 0.00 17.10 2041.9
6 20 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2068.0
6 21 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2090.5 Peak in density large larvae
6 22 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 2112.1
6 23 62.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 2130.1
6 24 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 2149.0
6 25 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 2170.6
6 26 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2198.5
6 27 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2228.2
6 28 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2253.4
6 29 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2275.9
6 30 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2298.4
7 1 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2321.8
7 2 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2348.8
7 3 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2373.1
7 4 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2394.7
7 5 69.30 51.80 0.00 19.55 2414.3 Vx
7 6 75.90 53.20 0.00 23.55 2437.8 Vx Vn
7 7 67.50 59.00 0.00 22.25 2460.1 Vx Vn
7 8 68.20 59.30 0.00 22.75 2482.8 Vx Vn
7 9 67.40 57.00 0.00 21.20 2504.0 Vx Vn
7 10 70.80 56.70 0.00 22.75 2526.8 Vx Vn
7 11 71.60 55.90 0.00 22.75 2549.5 Vx Vn
7 12 72.30 57.80 0.00 24.05 2573.6 Vx Vn
7 13 74.30 55.90 0.00 24.10 2597.7 Vx Vn
7 14 76.10 52.50 0.00 23.30 2621.0 Vx Vn
7 15 71.70 51.20 0.00 20.45 2641.4 Vx Vn
7 16 70.50 57.20 0.00 22.85 2664.3 Vx Vn
7 17 73.30 60.50 0.00 25.90 2690.2 Vx Vn
7 18 72.00 57.90 0.00 23.95 2714.1
7 19 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2739.6
7 20 82.00 53.60 0.00 26.80 2766.4
7 21 82.90 53.60 0.02 27.25 2793.6
7 22 71.10 60.80 0.06 24.95 2818.6
7 23 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 2842.1
7 24 87.80 51.80 0.00 28.80 2870.9
7 25 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 2901.4
7 26 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2929.3
7 27 87.10 57.00 0.00 31.05 2960.3
7 28 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 2995.4
7 29 87.10 60.10 0.00 32.60 3028.0
7 30 73.90 59.00 0.00 25.45 3053.5
7 31 72.00 55.90 0.00 22.95 3076.4
8 1 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 3097.9
8 2 73.40 57.00 0.12 24.20 3122.1
8 3 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 3148.9
8 4 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 3180.3
8 5 73.90 55.40 0.00 23.65 3204.0
8 6 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3224.7
8 7 68.00 50.00 0.04 18.00 3242.7
8 8 70.00 57.20 0.02 22.60 3265.3
8 9 64.90 57.00 0.03 19.95 3285.2
8 10 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3313.0
8 11 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 3342.8
8 12 96.80 57.00 0.00 35.90 3378.7
8 13 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 3412.6
8 14 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3440.4
8 15 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 3469.4
8 16 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 3497.9
8 17 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 3524.9
8 18 96.80 57.00 0.00 35.90 3560.8
8 19 100.40 59.00 0.00 38.70 3599.5
8 20 93.90 57.00 0.00 34.45 3633.9
8 21 72.00 55.90 0.00 22.95 3656.9
8 22 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 3676.7
8 23 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 3701.8
8 24 91.00 51.10 0.00 30.05 3731.8
8 25 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 3765.8
8 26 95.00 55.40 0.00 34.20 3800.0
8 27 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 3823.3
8 28 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 3849.6
8 29 81.00 53.10 0.00 26.05 3875.7
8 30 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 3898.4
8 31 68.00 57.00 1.21 21.50 3919.9
9 1 66.90 55.40 0.09 20.15 3940.0
9 2 70.00 55.90 0.10 21.95 3962.0
9 3 66.90 51.10 0.09 18.00 3980.0
9 4 70.00 51.80 0.00 19.90 3999.9
9 5 70.00 51.80 0.30 19.90 4019.8
9 6 64.40 55.40 0.09 18.90 4038.7
9 7 73.40 59.00 0.01 25.20 4063.9
9 8 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 4084.4
9 9 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 4107.8
9 10 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 4132.3
9 11 71.10 48.90 0.00 19.00 4151.3
9 12 78.80 44.60 0.00 20.70 4172.0
9 13 80.60 44.10 0.00 21.35 4193.4
9 14 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 4212.4
9 15 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 4236.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-17-16 | 868 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-21-16 | 966 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 4-24-16 | 1000 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-10-16 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-21-16 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?277791)
