Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 45.00 34.70 0.00 1.11 1.1 * START *Hx Hn 1 2 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 1.4 1 3 37.40 19.40 0.00 0.00 1.4 1 4 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 1.4 1 5 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 1.4 1 6 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 1.6 1 7 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 3.2 1 8 48.20 30.20 0.02 2.02 5.2 1 9 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 6.6 1 10 51.80 28.40 0.00 3.29 9.9 1 11 51.80 26.60 0.06 3.15 13.0 1 12 44.60 39.20 0.04 1.36 14.4 1 13 48.20 42.80 0.01 4.50 18.9 1 14 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 20.8 1 15 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 27.1 1 16 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 33.4 1 17 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 38.8 1 18 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 46.0 1 19 46.40 44.60 0.00 4.50 50.5 1 20 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 56.8 1 21 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 63.1 1 22 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 73.0 1 23 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 77.5 1 24 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 81.4 1 25 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 88.0 1 26 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 97.9 1 27 53.60 48.20 0.01 9.90 107.8 1 28 55.40 44.60 0.02 9.00 116.8 1 29 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 122.2 1 30 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 123.3 1 31 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 124.5 2 1 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 125.8 2 2 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 128.0 2 3 44.60 42.80 0.00 2.70 130.7 2 4 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 137.0 2 5 53.60 44.60 0.01 8.10 145.1 2 6 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 150.8 2 7 62.60 35.60 0.00 9.15 159.9 2 8 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 168.7 2 9 64.40 35.60 0.00 10.01 178.7 2 10 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 190.4 2 11 53.60 46.40 0.01 9.00 199.4 2 12 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 210.2 2 13 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 215.6 2 14 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 224.6 2 15 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 238.1 2 16 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 249.8 2 17 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 263.3 2 18 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 268.7 2 19 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 274.1 2 20 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 278.2 2 21 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 281.6 2 22 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 285.4 2 23 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 293.6 2 24 60.80 37.40 0.00 8.71 302.3 2 25 66.20 35.60 0.00 10.88 313.1 2 26 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 319.7 2 27 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 329.6 2 28 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 337.7 2 29 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 343.1 3 1 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 352.1 3 2 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 361.1 3 3 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 372.8 3 4 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 384.5 3 5 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 398.9 3 6 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 408.8 3 7 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 413.6 3 8 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 417.1 3 9 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 426.1 3 10 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 434.2 3 11 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 439.1 3 12 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 445.4 3 13 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 451.7 3 14 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 454.8 3 15 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 457.8 3 16 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 463.9 3 17 64.40 30.20 0.00 8.97 472.9 3 18 66.20 33.80 0.00 10.47 483.4 3 19 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 498.7 3 20 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 510.4 3 21 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 519.4 3 22 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 527.5 3 23 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 535.6 3 24 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 542.8 3 25 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 550.9 3 26 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 560.1 3 27 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 564.9 3 28 57.20 33.80 0.01 6.25 571.1 3 29 64.40 35.60 0.00 10.01 581.2 3 30 73.40 35.60 0.00 14.38 595.5 3 31 73.40 39.20 0.00 15.48 611.0 4 1 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 629.9 4 2 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 648.8 4 3 73.40 39.20 0.00 15.48 664.3 4 4 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 674.2 4 5 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 685.9 4 6 71.60 39.20 0.00 14.58 700.5 4 7 89.60 44.60 0.00 26.10 726.6 4 8 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 746.4 4 9 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 761.7 4 10 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 775.2 4 11 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 788.7 4 12 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 801.3 4 13 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 811.2 4 14 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 820.2 4 15 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 831.0 4 16 71.60 39.20 0.00 14.58 845.5 4 17 86.00 41.00 0.00 22.50 868.0 peak pheromone trap catch 4 18 89.60 46.40 0.00 27.00 895.0 4 19 89.60 48.20 0.00 27.90 922.9 4 20 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 945.4 4 21 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 966.1 peak female adult emergence 4 22 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 978.7 4 23 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 991.3 4 24 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 1000.3 peak egg laying 4 25 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 1008.6 4 26 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 1016.1 4 27 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1028.7 4 28 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 1039.5 4 29 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 1051.2 4 30 69.80 39.20 0.00 13.69 1064.8 5 1 82.40 44.60 0.00 22.50 1087.3 5 2 87.80 46.40 0.00 26.10 1113.4 5 3 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1134.1 5 4 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1151.2 5 5 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1171.0 5 6 80.60 46.00 0.00 22.30 1193.3 5 7 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1217.6 5 8 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1232.9 5 9 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1250.0 5 10 78.80 44.60 0.00 20.70 1270.7 peak egg hatch 5 11 84.20 42.80 0.00 22.50 1293.2 5 12 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 1317.5 5 13 82.40 44.60 0.00 22.50 1340.0 5 14 57.20 53.60 0.00 14.40 1354.4 5 15 55.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 1367.0 5 16 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1382.3 5 17 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1402.1 5 18 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1421.9 5 19 55.40 48.00 0.00 10.70 1432.6 5 20 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1448.8 5 21 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 1460.5 5 22 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1476.7 5 23 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1496.5 5 24 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1515.4 5 25 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1533.4 5 26 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1547.8 5 27 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1562.2 5 28 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1579.3 5 29 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1595.5 5 30 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 1613.5 5 31 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 1639.6 6 1 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1667.5 6 2 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1690.9 6 3 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 1720.6 6 4 91.40 66.20 0.00 37.80 1758.4 6 5 93.20 60.80 0.00 36.00 1794.4 6 6 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 1826.8 6 7 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1855.6 6 8 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1875.4 6 9 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1890.7 6 10 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1905.1 6 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1921.3 6 12 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1938.4 6 13 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 1951.9 6 14 59.00 48.20 0.01 12.60 1964.5 6 15 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1978.9 6 16 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1993.3 6 17 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 2008.6 6 18 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 2024.8 6 19 75.20 41.00 0.00 17.10 2041.9 6 20 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2068.0 6 21 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2090.5 peak in density large larvae 6 22 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 2112.1 6 23 62.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 2130.1 6 24 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 2149.0 6 25 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 2170.6 6 26 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2198.5 6 27 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2228.2 6 28 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2253.4 6 29 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2275.9 6 30 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2298.4 7 1 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2321.8 7 2 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2348.8 7 3 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2373.1 7 4 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2394.7 7 5 69.30 51.80 0.00 19.55 2414.3 Vx 7 6 75.90 53.20 0.00 23.55 2437.8 Vx Vn 7 7 67.50 59.00 0.00 22.25 2460.1 Vx Vn 7 8 68.20 59.30 0.00 22.75 2482.8 Vx Vn 7 9 67.40 57.00 0.00 21.20 2504.0 Vx Vn 7 10 70.80 56.70 0.00 22.75 2526.8 Vx Vn 7 11 71.60 55.90 0.00 22.75 2549.5 Vx Vn 7 12 72.30 57.80 0.00 24.05 2573.6 Vx Vn 7 13 74.30 55.90 0.00 24.10 2597.7 Vx Vn 7 14 76.10 52.50 0.00 23.30 2621.0 Vx Vn 7 15 71.70 51.20 0.00 20.45 2641.4 Vx Vn 7 16 70.50 57.20 0.00 22.85 2664.3 Vx Vn 7 17 73.30 60.50 0.00 25.90 2690.2 Vx Vn 7 18 72.00 57.90 0.00 23.95 2714.1 7 19 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2739.6 7 20 82.00 53.60 0.00 26.80 2766.4 7 21 82.90 53.60 0.02 27.25 2793.6 7 22 71.10 60.80 0.06 24.95 2818.6 7 23 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 2842.1 7 24 87.80 51.80 0.00 28.80 2870.9 7 25 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 2901.4 7 26 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2929.3 7 27 87.10 57.00 0.00 31.05 2960.3 7 28 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 2995.4 7 29 87.10 60.10 0.00 32.60 3028.0 7 30 73.90 59.00 0.00 25.45 3053.5 7 31 72.00 55.90 0.00 22.95 3076.4 8 1 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 3097.9 8 2 73.40 57.00 0.12 24.20 3122.1 8 3 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 3148.9 8 4 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 3180.3 8 5 73.90 55.40 0.00 23.65 3204.0 8 6 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3224.7 8 7 68.00 50.00 0.04 18.00 3242.7 8 8 70.00 57.20 0.02 22.60 3265.3 8 9 64.90 57.00 0.03 19.95 3285.2 8 10 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3313.0 8 11 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 3342.8 8 12 96.80 57.00 0.00 35.90 3378.7 8 13 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 3412.6 8 14 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3440.4 8 15 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 3469.4 8 16 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 3497.9 8 17 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 3524.9 8 18 96.80 57.00 0.00 35.90 3560.8 8 19 100.40 59.00 0.00 38.70 3599.5 8 20 93.90 57.00 0.00 34.45 3633.9 8 21 72.00 55.90 0.00 22.95 3656.9 8 22 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 3676.7 8 23 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 3701.8 8 24 91.00 51.10 0.00 30.05 3731.8 8 25 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 3765.8 8 26 95.00 55.40 0.00 34.20 3800.0 8 27 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 3823.3 8 28 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 3849.6 8 29 81.00 53.10 0.00 26.05 3875.7 8 30 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 3898.4 8 31 68.00 57.00 1.21 21.50 3919.9 9 1 66.90 55.40 0.09 20.15 3940.0 9 2 70.00 55.90 0.10 21.95 3962.0 9 3 66.90 51.10 0.09 18.00 3980.0 9 4 70.00 51.80 0.00 19.90 3999.9 9 5 70.00 51.80 0.30 19.90 4019.8 9 6 64.40 55.40 0.09 18.90 4038.7 9 7 73.40 59.00 0.01 25.20 4063.9 9 8 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 4084.4 9 9 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 4107.8 9 10 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 4132.3 9 11 71.10 48.90 0.00 19.00 4151.3 9 12 78.80 44.60 0.00 20.70 4172.0 9 13 80.60 44.10 0.00 21.35 4193.4 9 14 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 4212.4 9 15 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 4236.4 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KKLS 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2016 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA
DD accumulation on 1-25-17: 25 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 5 days behind 2016 ok
 11 days behind 2015 ok
 5 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 3-30-17: 32 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-17-17: 2435 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-17-17: 532QA 52% ok - Poor - 48% of data estimated  - check weather data/Consider using a different Station!
DateDDsEvent
 4-17-16 868peak pheromone trap catch
 4-21-16 966peak female adult emergence
 4-24-16 1000peak egg laying
 5-10-16 1271peak egg hatch
 6-21-16 2091peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)