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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 10.8 * START *
1 2 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 16.2
1 3 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 21.0
1 4 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 26.4
1 5 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 31.2
1 6 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 36.9
1 7 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 39.9
1 8 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 42.4
1 9 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 43.8
1 10 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 51.0
1 11 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 59.1
1 12 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 71.7
1 13 57.70 42.80 0.00 9.25 80.9 Px
1 14 55.40 38.20 0.00 6.29 87.2 Pn
1 15 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 93.7
1 16 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 95.5
1 17 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 100.9
1 18 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 103.9
1 19 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 105.4
1 20 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 107.3
1 21 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 108.9
1 22 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 110.1
1 23 42.80 23.00 0.00 0.23 110.3
1 24 39.20 35.60 0.16 0.00 110.3
1 25 46.40 33.80 0.06 1.58 111.9
1 26 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 113.6
1 27 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 116.7
1 28 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 118.4
1 29 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 120.7
1 30 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 125.2
1 31 50.00 42.80 0.13 5.40 130.6
2 1 51.80 42.80 0.16 6.30 136.9
2 2 44.60 39.20 0.06 1.36 138.2
2 3 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 141.1
2 4 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 142.9
2 5 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 150.1
2 6 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 155.5
2 7 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 158.4
2 8 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 159.1
2 9 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 159.1
2 10 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 159.1
2 11 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 159.1
2 12 35.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 159.1
2 13 32.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 159.1
2 14 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 159.4
2 15 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 159.4
2 16 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 161.9
2 17 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 164.1
2 18 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 166.1
2 19 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 168.5
2 20 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 171.2
2 21 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 177.5
2 22 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 182.9
2 23 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 184.5
2 24 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 186.4
2 25 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 187.8
2 26 48.20 37.40 0.16 2.72 190.5
2 27 50.00 30.20 0.05 2.71 193.2
2 28 48.20 39.20 0.16 3.05 196.3
3 1 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 204.4
3 2 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 210.1
3 3 51.70 39.20 0.00 4.74 214.8 Px
3 4 55.10 41.20 0.00 7.15 221.9 Px Pn
3 5 53.60 41.20 0.00 6.40 228.3 Pn
3 6 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 235.5
3 7 48.20 41.00 0.04 3.60 239.1
3 8 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 246.2
3 9 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 253.2
3 10 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 257.8
3 11 55.40 28.40 0.00 4.76 262.6
3 12 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 270.5
3 13 62.60 32.00 0.00 8.44 278.9
3 14 51.80 39.20 0.16 4.79 283.7
3 15 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 286.4
3 16 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 290.5
3 17 60.80 32.00 0.00 7.61 298.1
3 18 60.80 35.60 0.08 8.29 306.3
3 19 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 317.1
3 20 53.60 42.80 0.04 7.20 324.3
3 21 44.60 41.00 0.07 1.80 326.1
3 22 55.40 37.40 0.14 6.10 332.2
3 23 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 338.5
3 24 44.60 39.20 0.43 1.36 339.9
3 25 55.40 37.40 0.01 6.10 346.0
3 26 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 352.5
3 27 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 360.0
3 28 48.20 39.20 0.25 3.05 363.0
3 29 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 366.6
3 30 59.00 30.20 0.00 6.53 373.2
3 31 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 379.7
4 1 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 386.3
4 2 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 394.4
4 3 60.80 39.20 0.03 9.22 403.6
4 4 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 407.7
4 5 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 414.8
4 6 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 422.7
4 7 50.00 39.20 0.20 3.92 426.6
4 8 55.40 37.40 0.07 6.10 432.7
4 9 48.20 41.00 0.10 3.60 436.3
4 10 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 440.2
4 11 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 444.5
4 12 64.40 33.80 0.00 9.62 454.2
4 13 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 465.2
4 14 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 474.8
4 15 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 487.5
4 16 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 507.3
4 17 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 527.1
4 18 80.60 42.80 0.00 20.70 547.8
4 19 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 565.8
4 20 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 581.1
4 21 69.80 39.20 0.00 13.69 594.8
4 22 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 608.3
4 23 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 620.9
4 24 51.80 46.40 0.40 8.10 629.0
4 25 60.80 42.80 0.17 10.80 639.8
4 26 64.40 42.80 0.11 12.60 652.4
4 27 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 664.1
4 28 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 679.4
4 29 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 698.3
4 30 68.00 51.80 0.01 18.90 717.2
5 1 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 728.0
5 2 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 740.6
5 3 60.80 41.00 0.02 9.90 750.5
5 4 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 763.1
5 5 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 775.0
5 6 69.80 46.40 0.09 17.10 792.1
5 7 60.80 44.60 0.13 11.70 803.8
5 8 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 813.1
5 9 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 826.6
5 10 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 838.4
5 11 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 851.2 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 12 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 868.3
5 13 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 884.5
5 14 71.60 42.80 0.00 16.20 900.7
5 15 71.60 42.80 0.00 16.20 916.9
5 16 77.00 44.60 0.00 19.80 936.7
5 17 59.00 51.80 0.03 14.40 951.1 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 961.9
5 19 60.80 39.20 0.01 9.22 971.2
5 20 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 984.0
5 21 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 998.4
5 22 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 1012.8 Peak egg laying
5 23 66.20 48.20 0.07 16.20 1029.0
5 24 62.60 50.00 0.24 15.30 1044.3
5 25 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1062.3
5 26 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1079.4
5 27 64.40 50.00 0.05 16.20 1095.6
5 28 64.40 42.80 0.01 12.60 1108.2
5 29 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 1122.6
5 30 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1139.7
5 31 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1162.2
6 1 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 1187.4
6 2 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1213.5
6 3 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1236.0
6 4 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1256.7
6 5 64.40 50.00 0.01 16.20 1272.9 Peak egg hatch
6 6 55.40 48.20 0.14 10.80 1283.7
6 7 68.00 44.60 0.03 15.30 1299.0
6 8 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 1314.3
6 9 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1331.4
6 10 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1349.4
6 11 69.80 51.80 0.01 19.80 1369.2
6 12 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1391.7
6 13 75.20 57.20 0.24 25.20 1416.9
6 14 69.80 55.40 0.18 21.60 1438.5
6 15 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1462.8
6 16 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1483.5
6 17 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 1506.0
6 18 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1526.7
6 19 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1547.4
6 20 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 1570.8
6 21 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1598.7
6 22 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1624.8
6 23 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1649.1
6 24 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1673.4
6 25 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1703.1
6 26 96.80 62.60 0.00 38.70 1741.8
6 27 93.20 68.00 0.00 39.60 1781.4
6 28 100.40 73.40 0.00 45.90 1827.3
6 29 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 1858.8
6 30 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1885.8
7 1 82.40 60.80 0.00 30.60 1916.4
7 2 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1944.3
7 3 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1971.3
7 4 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1998.3
7 5 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2023.5
7 6 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 2049.6
7 7 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2070.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 8 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2092.8
7 9 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2118.0
7 10 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2139.6
7 11 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2164.8
7 12 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 2190.0
7 13 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 2214.3
7 14 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2237.7
7 15 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 2256.6
7 16 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2279.1
7 17 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2302.5
7 18 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2326.8
7 19 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 2351.1
7 20 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2374.5
7 21 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2397.0
7 22 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 2418.6
7 23 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 2442.9
7 24 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2469.9
7 25 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2495.1
7 26 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2523.0
7 27 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2550.0
7 28 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 2577.9
7 29 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2609.4
7 30 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 2639.1
7 31 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2662.5
8 1 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2690.4
8 2 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2716.5
8 3 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2742.6
8 4 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2774.1
8 5 80.60 57.20 0.01 27.90 2802.0
8 6 73.40 57.20 0.17 24.30 2826.3
8 7 69.80 57.20 0.18 22.50 2848.8
8 8 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2874.0
8 9 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2901.0
8 10 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2929.8
8 11 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2961.3
8 12 87.80 64.40 0.00 35.10 2996.4
8 13 95.00 62.60 0.00 37.80 3034.2
8 14 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 3064.8
8 15 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 3095.4
8 16 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 3120.6
8 17 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 3144.9
8 18 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 3170.1
8 19 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 3195.3
8 20 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 3216.9
8 21 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 3239.4
8 22 69.80 50.00 0.04 18.90 3258.3
8 23 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3279.0
8 24 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 3300.6
8 25 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 3323.1
8 26 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3346.5
8 27 75.20 50.00 0.09 21.60 3368.1
8 28 78.80 44.60 0.00 20.70 3388.8
8 29 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 3410.4
8 30 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3431.1
8 31 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 3447.3
9 1 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 3463.5
9 2 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 3484.2
9 3 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 3507.6
9 4 78.80 48.20 0.03 22.50 3530.1
9 5 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 3554.4
9 6 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3578.7
9 7 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 3601.2
9 8 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3630.9
9 9 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 3658.8
9 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3682.2
9 11 69.80 53.60 0.04 20.70 3702.9
9 12 69.80 51.80 0.29 19.80 3722.7
9 13 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 3742.5
9 14 66.20 46.40 0.08 15.30 3757.8
9 15 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 3774.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-11-21 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-17-21 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-22-21 | 1013 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-5-21 | 1273 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-7-21 | 2070 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2336485)
