|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 8.1 * START *
1 2 48.20 39.20 0.03 3.05 11.1
1 3 60.80 46.40 0.03 12.60 23.7
1 4 48.20 41.00 0.01 3.60 27.3
1 5 46.40 39.20 0.06 2.19 29.5
1 6 46.40 41.00 0.30 2.70 32.2
1 7 53.60 44.60 0.17 8.10 40.3
1 8 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 41.1
1 9 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 41.4
1 10 46.40 35.60 0.10 1.72 43.1
1 11 46.40 37.40 0.09 1.91 45.0
1 12 46.40 30.20 0.18 1.37 46.4
1 13 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 46.4
1 14 28.40 19.40 0.05 0.00 46.4
1 15 44.60 30.20 0.25 0.78 47.1
1 16 44.60 32.00 0.03 0.84 48.0
1 17 39.20 28.40 0.02 0.00 48.0
1 18 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 52.4
1 19 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 60.5
1 20 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 67.7
1 21 51.80 44.60 0.02 7.20 74.9
1 22 48.20 42.80 0.12 4.50 79.4
1 23 57.20 48.20 0.05 11.70 91.1
1 24 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 101.9
1 25 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 110.0
1 26 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 118.1
1 27 53.60 41.00 0.11 6.30 124.4
1 28 48.20 42.80 0.10 4.50 128.9
1 29 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 132.4
1 30 51.80 37.40 0.04 4.38 136.8
1 31 59.00 46.40 0.18 11.70 148.5
2 1 51.80 37.40 0.23 4.38 152.9
2 2 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 154.3
2 3 42.80 30.20 0.01 0.29 154.6
2 4 39.20 28.40 0.07 0.00 154.6
2 5 42.80 39.20 0.62 0.57 155.2
2 6 42.80 39.20 0.09 0.57 155.8
2 7 51.80 39.20 0.10 4.79 160.6
2 8 46.40 39.20 0.06 2.19 162.8
2 9 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 164.8
2 10 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 167.8
2 11 46.40 33.80 0.03 1.58 169.4
2 12 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 175.5
2 13 46.40 37.40 0.01 1.91 177.4
2 14 50.00 41.00 0.06 4.50 181.9
2 15 48.20 41.00 0.02 3.60 185.5
2 16 46.40 37.40 0.03 1.91 187.4
2 17 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 189.0
2 18 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 191.1
2 19 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 194.8
2 20 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 198.8
2 21 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 203.2
2 22 48.20 39.20 0.07 3.05 206.3
2 23 48.20 39.20 0.38 3.05 209.3
2 24 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 212.0
2 25 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 214.7
2 26 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 221.3
2 27 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 228.8
2 28 55.40 35.60 0.12 5.73 234.5
2 29 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 239.7
3 1 48.20 32.00 0.05 2.14 241.9
3 2 44.60 39.20 0.18 1.36 243.2
3 3 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 248.6
3 4 55.40 41.00 0.01 7.20 255.8
3 5 53.60 41.00 0.20 6.30 262.1
3 6 53.60 37.40 0.11 5.24 267.4
3 7 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 270.6
3 8 46.40 30.20 0.14 1.37 272.0
3 9 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 274.7
3 10 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 277.8
3 11 53.60 33.80 0.10 4.62 282.4
3 12 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 285.2
3 13 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 286.8
3 14 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 288.3
3 15 50.00 26.60 0.00 2.47 290.8
3 16 53.60 26.60 0.00 3.86 294.6
3 17 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 298.6
3 18 59.00 28.40 0.00 6.30 304.9
3 19 60.80 32.00 0.00 7.61 312.5
3 20 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 321.3
3 21 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 329.1
3 22 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 335.4
3 23 57.20 41.00 0.07 8.10 343.5
3 24 51.80 37.40 0.02 4.38 347.9
3 25 55.40 35.60 0.01 5.73 353.6
3 26 50.00 35.60 0.07 3.26 356.9
3 27 50.00 42.80 0.01 5.40 362.3
3 28 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 371.3
3 29 59.00 46.40 0.05 11.70 383.0
3 30 51.80 37.40 0.73 4.38 387.3
3 31 53.60 33.80 0.21 4.62 392.0
4 1 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 396.6
4 2 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 400.0
4 3 50.00 37.40 0.08 3.54 403.6
4 4 55.40 35.60 0.04 5.73 409.3
4 5 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 415.4
4 6 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 424.2
4 7 60.80 37.40 0.00 8.71 432.9
4 8 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 440.3
4 9 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 451.3
4 10 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 464.1
4 11 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 475.8
4 12 60.80 32.00 0.00 7.61 483.4
4 13 66.20 33.80 0.00 10.47 493.9
4 14 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 506.7
4 15 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 519.3
4 16 71.60 42.80 0.00 16.20 535.5
4 17 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 548.1
4 18 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 560.7
4 19 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 573.3
4 20 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 585.9
4 21 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 598.5
4 22 53.60 48.20 0.85 9.90 608.4
4 23 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 619.2
4 24 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 631.8
4 25 64.40 50.00 0.18 16.20 648.0
4 26 64.40 42.80 0.08 12.60 660.6
4 27 64.40 48.20 0.13 15.30 675.9
4 28 64.40 46.40 0.01 14.40 690.3
4 29 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 706.5
4 30 62.60 50.00 0.14 15.30 721.8
5 1 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 736.2
5 2 62.60 46.40 0.24 13.50 749.7
5 3 60.80 42.80 0.43 10.80 760.5
5 4 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 774.9
5 5 73.40 50.00 0.12 20.70 795.6
5 6 62.60 42.80 0.14 11.70 807.3
5 7 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 817.4
5 8 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 835.4
5 9 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 861.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 10 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 887.6
5 11 80.60 51.80 0.07 25.20 912.8
5 12 69.80 51.80 0.21 19.80 932.6
5 13 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 950.6 Peak female adult emergence
5 14 66.20 46.40 0.01 15.30 965.9
5 15 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 983.0
5 16 60.80 51.80 0.05 15.30 998.3
5 17 69.80 48.20 0.20 18.00 1016.3 Peak egg laying
5 18 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 1032.5
5 19 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1051.4
5 20 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1066.7
5 21 62.60 46.40 0.01 13.50 1080.2
5 22 60.80 48.20 0.03 13.50 1093.7
5 23 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 1109.0
5 24 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1126.1
5 25 60.80 51.80 0.35 15.30 1141.4
5 26 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1157.6
5 27 71.60 42.80 0.00 16.20 1173.8
5 28 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1196.3
5 29 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1218.8
5 30 55.40 50.00 0.85 11.70 1230.5
5 31 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1244.9
6 1 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 1261.1
6 2 62.60 44.60 0.05 12.60 1273.7 Peak egg hatch
6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1289.0
6 4 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1309.7
6 5 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 1328.6
6 6 68.00 50.00 0.14 18.00 1346.6
6 7 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1363.7
6 8 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1382.6
6 9 62.60 50.00 0.23 15.30 1397.9
6 10 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1420.4
6 11 75.20 53.60 0.09 23.40 1443.8
6 12 59.00 53.60 0.83 15.30 1459.1
6 13 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1477.1
6 14 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1494.2
6 15 59.00 51.80 0.36 14.40 1508.6
6 16 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1526.6
6 17 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1545.5
6 18 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1565.3
6 19 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1589.6
6 20 73.40 59.00 0.48 25.20 1614.8
6 21 69.80 50.00 0.08 18.90 1633.7
6 22 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1654.4
6 23 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 1679.6
6 24 78.80 53.60 0.09 25.20 1704.8
6 25 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1729.1
6 26 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1750.7
6 27 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1766.9
6 28 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1790.3
6 29 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1812.8
6 30 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1834.4
7 1 59.00 53.60 0.49 15.30 1849.7
7 2 64.40 51.80 0.02 17.10 1866.8
7 3 64.40 51.80 0.03 17.10 1883.9
7 4 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1904.6
7 5 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1925.3
7 6 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1945.1
7 7 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1966.7
7 8 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1991.0
7 9 69.80 55.40 0.16 21.60 2012.6
7 10 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2035.1
7 11 68.00 48.20 0.03 17.10 2052.2
7 12 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 2072.0 Peak in density large larvae
7 13 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 2090.9
7 14 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 2113.4
7 15 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2139.5
7 16 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 2166.5
7 17 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2189.0
7 18 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2213.3
7 19 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2237.6
7 20 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2267.3
7 21 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2293.4
7 22 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2316.8
7 23 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2338.4
7 24 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 2358.2
7 25 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 2378.0
7 26 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 2402.3
7 27 89.60 57.20 0.00 32.40 2434.7
7 28 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2459.9
7 29 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 2485.1
7 30 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2511.2
7 31 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2539.1
8 1 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2564.3
8 2 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2590.4
8 3 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2617.4
8 4 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2643.5
8 5 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2666.9
8 6 69.80 55.40 0.20 21.60 2688.5
8 7 77.00 55.40 0.02 25.20 2713.7
8 8 73.40 51.80 0.02 21.60 2735.3
8 9 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 2756.9
8 10 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2781.2
8 11 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2803.7
8 12 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 2823.5
8 13 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 2843.3
8 14 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 2865.8
8 15 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2891.9
8 16 95.00 55.40 0.00 34.20 2926.1
8 17 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2957.6
8 18 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2983.7
8 19 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 3011.6
8 20 82.40 60.80 0.03 30.60 3042.2
8 21 71.60 59.00 0.24 24.30 3066.5
8 22 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3088.1
8 23 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 3108.8
8 24 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 3129.5
8 25 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3150.2
8 26 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3170.9
8 27 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 3193.4
8 28 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3216.8
8 29 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 3236.6
8 30 75.20 44.60 0.07 18.90 3255.5
8 31 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3278.0
9 1 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 3306.8
9 2 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3332.0
9 3 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3356.3
9 4 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3383.3
9 5 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3407.6
9 6 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3431.9
9 7 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 3460.7
9 8 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 3483.2
9 9 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 3509.3
9 10 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 3539.0
9 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 3561.5
9 12 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 3576.8
9 13 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 3595.7
9 14 69.80 50.00 0.05 18.90 3614.6
9 15 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3641.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-9-20 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-13-20 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-17-20 | 1016 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-2-20 | 1274 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-12-20 | 2072 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2351590)
