Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight 1988


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight 1988 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2019 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 0.3 * START * 1 2 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 2.6 1 3 53.60 44.60 0.10 8.10 10.7 1 4 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 19.7 1 5 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 25.1 1 6 50.00 37.40 0.06 3.54 28.7 1 7 44.60 33.80 0.06 0.92 29.6 1 8 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 30.5 1 9 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 38.6 1 10 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 49.4 1 11 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 56.6 1 12 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 66.5 1 13 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 70.6 1 14 50.00 26.60 0.00 2.47 73.0 1 15 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 75.6 1 16 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 79.8 1 17 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 87.0 1 18 53.60 44.60 0.03 8.10 95.1 1 19 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 102.3 1 20 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 104.0 1 21 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 106.3 1 22 48.20 39.20 0.42 3.05 109.4 1 23 48.20 35.60 0.14 2.48 111.8 1 24 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 114.3 1 25 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 119.2 1 26 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 123.6 1 27 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 125.7 1 28 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 129.2 1 29 50.00 26.60 0.00 2.47 131.6 1 30 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 133.8 1 31 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 137.9 2 1 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 146.9 2 2 45.80 40.30 0.00 2.16 149.0 Px Pn 2 3 41.20 37.40 0.00 0.02 149.0 Px 2 4 28.20 14.70 0.00 0.00 149.0 Px Pn 2 5 37.40 10.50 0.00 0.00 149.0 Pn 2 6 41.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 149.0 2 7 39.20 19.40 0.00 0.00 149.0 2 8 33.80 28.40 0.03 0.00 149.0 2 9 33.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 149.0 2 10 35.60 12.20 0.00 0.00 149.0 2 11 32.00 23.00 0.07 0.00 149.0 2 12 37.40 32.00 0.11 0.00 149.0 2 13 42.80 26.60 0.01 0.26 149.3 2 14 42.80 28.40 0.04 0.27 149.6 2 15 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 152.3 2 16 43.10 33.30 0.00 0.42 152.7 Px Pn 2 17 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 153.6 2 18 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 153.6 2 19 39.20 33.80 0.11 0.00 153.6 2 20 41.00 32.00 0.01 0.00 153.6 2 21 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 154.3 2 22 39.20 32.00 0.20 0.00 154.3 2 23 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 156.0 2 24 46.40 33.80 0.07 1.58 157.6 2 25 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 157.9 2 26 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 157.9 2 27 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 158.2 2 28 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 159.7 3 1 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 160.4 3 2 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 162.4 3 3 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 162.6 3 4 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.24 162.9 3 5 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 163.5 3 6 39.20 24.80 0.14 0.00 163.5 3 7 42.80 30.20 0.12 0.29 163.8 3 8 42.80 30.20 0.01 0.29 164.1 3 9 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 164.9 3 10 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 167.6 3 11 50.00 30.20 0.12 2.71 170.3 3 12 46.40 35.60 0.29 1.72 172.1 3 13 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 176.1 3 14 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 182.2 3 15 55.10 40.00 0.00 6.66 188.9 Px Pn 3 16 59.00 38.80 0.00 8.21 197.1 Pn 3 17 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 205.4 3 18 66.20 35.60 0.00 10.88 216.3 3 19 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 233.4 3 20 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 246.9 3 21 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 258.6 3 22 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 272.1 3 23 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 282.9 3 24 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 291.9 3 25 60.80 42.80 0.12 10.80 302.7 3 26 62.60 42.80 0.15 11.70 314.4 3 27 60.80 32.00 0.00 7.61 322.0 3 28 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 336.4 3 29 66.20 37.40 0.00 11.35 347.7 3 30 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 358.7 3 31 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 369.2 4 1 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 380.2 4 2 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 396.4 4 3 59.00 50.00 0.14 13.50 409.9 4 4 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 422.5 4 5 64.40 48.20 0.01 15.30 437.8 4 6 57.20 46.40 0.03 10.80 448.6 4 7 62.60 42.80 0.03 11.70 460.3 4 8 57.20 42.80 0.11 9.00 469.3 4 9 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 481.9 4 10 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 488.2 4 11 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 493.6 4 12 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 506.2 4 13 50.00 42.80 0.04 5.40 511.6 4 14 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 517.0 4 15 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 524.4 4 16 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 532.3 4 17 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 547.6 4 18 62.60 50.00 0.27 15.30 562.9 4 19 62.60 46.40 0.09 13.50 576.4 4 20 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 589.0 4 21 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 597.3 4 22 56.60 43.10 0.00 8.85 606.1 Px Pn 4 23 56.40 46.00 0.00 10.20 616.3 Px Pn 4 24 57.70 40.70 0.00 8.22 624.6 Px Pn 4 25 54.90 36.00 0.00 5.57 630.1 Px Pn 4 26 57.00 37.30 0.00 6.84 637.0 Px Pn 4 27 53.50 36.50 0.00 5.01 642.0 Px Pn 4 28 62.60 33.10 0.00 8.64 650.6 Pn 4 29 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 661.4 4 30 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 674.2 5 1 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 683.8 5 2 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 694.6 5 3 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 708.1 5 4 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 720.7 5 5 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 733.3 5 6 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 749.5 5 7 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 765.7 5 8 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 782.8 5 9 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 804.4 5 10 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 827.8 5 11 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 853.0 Peak pheromone trap catch 5 12 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 868.3 5 13 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 882.7 5 14 60.80 46.40 0.01 12.60 895.3 5 15 69.80 48.20 0.01 18.00 913.3 5 16 69.80 50.00 0.03 18.90 932.2 5 17 68.00 51.80 0.16 18.90 951.1 Peak female adult emergence 5 18 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 970.9 5 19 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 990.7 5 20 57.20 50.00 0.09 12.60 1003.3 Peak egg laying 5 21 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1020.4 5 22 71.40 50.00 0.00 19.70 1040.1 Px 5 23 77.00 50.70 0.00 22.85 1063.0 Pn 5 24 62.60 53.60 0.01 17.10 1080.1 5 25 57.20 51.80 0.20 13.50 1093.6 5 26 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1114.3 5 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 1139.5 5 28 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1158.4 5 29 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1177.3 5 30 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1198.9 5 31 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1220.5 6 1 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1239.4 6 2 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1260.1 6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1275.4 Peak egg hatch 6 4 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1292.5 6 5 66.20 44.60 0.15 14.40 1306.9 6 6 69.80 48.20 0.01 18.00 1324.9 6 7 66.20 48.20 0.43 16.20 1341.1 6 8 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 1359.1 6 9 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1377.1 6 10 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1398.7 6 11 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 1422.1 6 12 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 1454.5 6 13 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1476.1 6 14 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1497.7 6 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1518.4 6 16 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1539.1 6 17 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1561.6 6 18 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1581.4 6 19 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1599.4 6 20 71.60 50.00 0.01 19.80 1619.2 6 21 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1641.7 6 22 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1659.7 6 23 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1678.6 6 24 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1698.4 6 25 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1719.1 6 26 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1741.6 6 27 75.20 53.60 0.32 23.40 1765.0 6 28 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1787.5 6 29 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1810.9 6 30 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 1834.3 7 1 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1855.9 7 2 60.80 55.40 0.02 17.10 1873.0 7 3 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1895.5 7 4 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1918.0 7 5 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1938.7 7 6 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1963.0 7 7 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1984.6 7 8 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2008.0 7 9 80.60 51.80 0.02 25.20 2033.2 7 10 73.40 60.80 0.06 26.10 2059.3 7 11 80.60 59.00 0.05 28.80 2088.1 Peak in density large larvae 7 12 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2113.3 7 13 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2141.2 7 14 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2168.2 7 15 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2194.3 7 16 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2220.4 7 17 66.20 57.20 0.21 20.70 2241.1 7 18 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2261.8 7 19 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2284.3 7 20 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 2305.0 7 21 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2332.0 7 22 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2358.1 7 23 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2382.4 7 24 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2407.6 7 25 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2433.7 7 26 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2460.7 7 27 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2486.8 7 28 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2510.2 7 29 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 2534.5 7 30 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2560.6 7 31 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2590.3 8 1 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2621.8 8 2 77.00 53.60 0.17 24.30 2646.1 8 3 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2668.6 8 4 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2693.8 8 5 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2723.5 8 6 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2749.6 8 7 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2773.9 8 8 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2797.3 8 9 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2823.4 8 10 75.20 57.20 0.07 25.20 2848.6 8 11 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 2874.7 8 12 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2904.4 8 13 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2932.3 8 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2961.1 8 15 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2990.8 8 16 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3014.2 8 17 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 3042.1 8 18 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3065.5 8 19 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3090.7 8 20 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 3116.8 8 21 68.00 51.80 0.24 18.90 3135.7 8 22 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3159.1 8 23 68.00 50.00 0.05 18.00 3177.1 8 24 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3198.7 8 25 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3223.0 8 26 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 3242.8 8 27 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3267.1 8 28 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3294.1 8 29 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3321.1 8 30 80.60 59.00 0.18 28.80 3349.9 8 31 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3379.6 9 1 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 3407.5 9 2 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3431.8 9 3 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3457.0 9 4 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3481.3 9 5 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3504.7 9 6 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3531.7 9 7 73.40 55.40 0.47 23.40 3555.1 9 8 71.60 57.20 0.24 23.40 3578.5 9 9 68.00 59.00 1.39 22.50 3601.0 9 10 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3623.5 9 11 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3645.1 9 12 75.20 55.40 0.37 24.30 3669.4 9 13 71.60 57.20 0.23 23.40 3692.8 9 14 68.00 59.00 0.11 22.50 3715.3 9 15 62.60 55.40 0.59 18.00 3733.3 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988
Location: 2019 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME
DateDDsEvent
 5-11-19 853Peak pheromone trap catch
 5-17-19 951Peak female adult emergence
 5-20-19 1003Peak egg laying
 6-3-19 1275Peak egg hatch
 7-11-19 2088Peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988