Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 0.3 1 4 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 1.7 1 5 55.40 42.80 0.24 8.10 9.8 1 6 48.20 42.80 0.07 4.50 14.3 1 7 44.60 41.00 0.17 1.80 16.1 1 8 50.00 42.80 0.33 5.40 21.5 1 9 48.20 42.80 0.25 4.50 26.0 1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 27.4 1 11 41.00 37.40 0.91 0.00 27.4 1 12 50.00 37.40 0.28 3.54 30.9 1 13 50.00 41.00 0.14 4.50 35.4 1 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 39.8 1 15 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 46.4 1 16 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 55.4 1 17 59.00 44.60 0.01 10.80 66.2 1 18 51.80 42.80 0.07 6.30 72.5 1 19 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 76.1 1 20 48.20 41.00 0.05 3.60 79.7 1 21 51.80 42.80 0.07 6.30 86.0 1 22 48.20 39.20 0.03 3.05 89.0 1 23 46.40 39.20 0.36 2.19 91.2 1 24 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 96.6 1 25 44.60 37.40 0.08 1.15 97.8 1 26 42.80 39.20 0.04 0.57 98.3 1 27 50.00 39.20 0.06 3.92 102.3 1 28 55.40 42.80 0.03 8.10 110.4 1 29 55.40 41.00 0.42 7.20 117.6 1 30 48.20 37.40 0.02 2.72 120.3 1 31 44.60 39.20 0.04 1.36 121.6 2 1 44.60 41.00 0.19 1.80 123.4 2 2 53.60 42.80 0.14 7.20 130.6 2 3 50.00 48.20 0.26 8.10 138.7 2 4 51.80 46.40 0.12 8.10 146.8 2 5 50.00 44.60 0.08 6.30 153.1 2 6 48.20 44.60 0.04 5.40 158.5 2 7 51.80 44.60 0.03 7.20 165.7 2 8 53.60 42.80 0.02 7.20 172.9 2 9 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 174.5 2 10 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 174.8 2 11 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 175.1 2 12 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 175.3 2 13 42.80 26.60 0.07 0.26 175.6 2 14 41.00 33.80 0.26 0.00 175.6 2 15 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 176.5 2 16 44.60 39.20 0.20 1.36 177.9 2 17 48.20 39.20 0.51 3.05 180.9 2 18 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 180.9 2 19 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 180.9 2 20 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 180.9 2 21 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 180.9 2 22 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 180.9 2 23 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 180.9 2 24 42.80 32.00 0.12 0.32 181.2 2 25 44.60 32.00 0.02 0.84 182.1 2 26 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 183.5 2 27 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 186.5 2 28 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 188.4 3 1 50.00 37.40 0.06 3.54 192.0 3 2 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 192.4 3 3 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 194.0 3 4 48.20 32.00 0.10 2.14 196.1 3 5 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 197.9 3 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 200.9 3 7 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 203.0 3 8 50.00 41.00 0.15 4.50 207.5 3 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 211.1 3 10 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 215.7 3 11 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 224.0 3 12 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 239.3 3 13 62.60 44.60 0.16 12.60 251.9 3 14 48.20 39.20 0.13 3.05 255.0 3 15 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 259.1 3 16 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 264.0 3 17 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 267.6 3 18 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 273.9 3 19 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 278.8 3 20 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 283.2 3 21 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 291.0 3 22 50.00 33.80 0.63 3.04 294.0 3 23 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 295.9 3 24 48.20 35.60 0.06 2.48 298.4 3 25 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 301.9 3 26 44.60 41.00 0.29 1.80 303.7 3 27 55.40 41.00 0.20 7.20 310.9 3 28 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 315.7 3 29 46.40 41.00 0.08 2.70 318.4 3 30 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 326.5 3 31 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 332.5 4 1 50.00 33.80 0.15 3.04 335.6 4 2 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 338.6 4 3 50.00 39.20 0.08 3.92 342.6 4 4 46.40 41.00 0.20 2.70 345.3 4 5 53.60 42.80 0.47 7.20 352.5 4 6 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 368.7 4 7 57.20 50.00 0.13 12.60 381.3 4 8 53.60 48.20 0.09 9.90 391.2 4 9 59.00 42.80 0.06 9.90 401.1 4 10 57.20 46.40 0.14 10.80 411.9 4 11 55.40 42.80 0.03 8.10 420.0 4 12 51.80 39.20 0.01 4.79 424.7 4 13 53.60 44.60 0.01 8.10 432.8 4 14 51.80 42.80 0.47 6.30 439.1 4 15 51.80 41.00 0.07 5.40 444.5 4 16 46.40 41.00 0.57 2.70 447.2 4 17 53.60 44.60 0.11 8.10 455.3 4 18 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 462.5 4 19 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 470.4 4 20 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 479.4 4 21 55.40 42.80 0.02 8.10 487.5 4 22 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 493.6 4 23 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 503.7 4 24 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 518.1 4 25 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 531.6 4 26 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 547.8 4 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 558.6 4 28 53.60 46.40 0.22 9.00 567.6 4 29 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 578.4 4 30 57.20 48.20 0.06 11.70 590.1 5 1 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 601.8 5 2 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 615.3 5 3 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 633.3 5 4 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 646.8 5 5 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 659.4 5 6 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 681.0 5 7 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 698.1 5 8 69.80 44.60 0.04 16.20 714.3 5 9 68.00 51.80 0.03 18.90 733.2 5 10 60.80 48.20 0.25 13.50 746.7 5 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 762.9 5 12 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 778.2 5 13 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 798.9 5 14 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 824.1 5 15 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 843.0 5 16 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 860.1 peak pheromone trap catch 5 17 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 877.2 5 18 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 893.4 5 19 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 913.2 5 20 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 928.5 5 21 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 942.9 5 22 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 960.0 peak female adult emergence 5 23 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 978.9 5 24 64.40 50.00 0.02 16.20 995.1 5 25 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1010.4 peak egg laying 5 26 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1024.8 5 27 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1040.1 5 28 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1056.3 5 29 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1068.9 5 30 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1081.5 5 31 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1094.1 6 1 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1110.3 6 2 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1129.2 6 3 53.60 50.00 0.31 10.80 1140.0 6 4 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1152.6 6 5 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 1167.9 6 6 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1183.2 6 7 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1200.3 6 8 62.60 51.80 0.16 16.20 1216.5 6 9 60.80 50.00 0.03 14.40 1230.9 6 10 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 1242.6 6 11 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1256.1 6 12 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1269.6 6 13 64.40 51.80 0.07 17.10 1286.7 peak egg hatch 6 14 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1301.1 6 15 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1316.4 6 16 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1338.9 6 17 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1364.1 6 18 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1392.9 6 19 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1418.1 6 20 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1444.2 6 21 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1464.9 6 22 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1483.8 6 23 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1504.5 6 24 71.60 48.20 0.04 18.90 1523.4 6 25 64.40 53.60 0.24 18.00 1541.4 6 26 70.70 50.00 0.00 19.35 1560.7 Px 6 27 69.30 45.10 0.00 16.20 1576.9 Px Pn 6 28 63.90 51.30 0.00 16.60 1593.5 Px Pn 6 29 64.40 54.80 0.01 18.60 1612.1 Pn 6 30 59.00 53.60 0.18 15.30 1627.4 7 1 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1646.3 7 2 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1664.3 7 3 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1682.3 7 4 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1703.0 7 5 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1730.9 7 6 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1757.0 7 7 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1780.4 7 8 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1801.1 7 9 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1821.8 7 10 71.60 53.60 0.02 21.60 1843.4 7 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1865.9 7 12 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1890.2 7 13 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1915.4 7 14 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1939.7
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 1940QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 4 days ahead 2017 ok
 15 days behind 2016 ok
 5 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KBVS data
  7 15  76.30 63.80  0.00  29.05   1968.8  0.00_20.05%_precip.    
  7 16  73.90 63.60  0.00  27.75   1996.5  0.00_18.75%_precip.    
  7 17  73.50 60.30  0.00  25.90   2022.4  0.00_16.90%_precip.    
  7 18  66.80 58.20  0.01  21.50   2043.9  0.012_12.50%_precip.    
  7 19  68.50 55.50  0.00  21.00   2064.9  0.00_12.00%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBVS 2006-2015
  7 20  73.10 53.40  0.02  22.25   2087.2  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 21  71.00 53.90  0.05  21.45   2108.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  74.00 54.20  0.03  23.10   2131.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  71.90 53.80  0.05  21.85   2153.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  71.10 53.30  0.09  21.20   2174.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  73.50 52.40  0.03  21.95   2196.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  72.90 53.00  0.04  21.95   2218.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  74.10 53.30  0.00  22.70   2241.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  74.20 52.90  0.00  22.55   2263.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  74.70 52.70  0.00  22.70   2286.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  75.00 53.40  0.01  23.20   2309.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  74.10 51.80  0.01  21.95   2331.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  73.40 50.90  0.03  21.15   2352.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  73.40 51.90  0.01  21.65   2374.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  74.00 52.40  0.02  22.20   2396.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  74.40 51.80  0.00  22.10   2418.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  76.20 52.70  0.00  23.45   2442.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  73.90 53.40  0.00  22.65   2465.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  73.90 53.00  0.00  22.45   2487.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  71.10 53.90  0.04  21.50   2508.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  70.70 53.30  0.01  21.00   2529.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  71.20 53.60  0.03  21.40   2551.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  71.90 53.00  0.06  21.45   2572.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  73.30 51.90  0.02  21.60   2594.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  73.70 53.60  0.04  22.65   2617.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  72.80 53.10  0.03  21.95   2639.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  74.40 54.50  0.06  23.45   2662.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  75.30 54.40  0.00  23.85   2686.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  76.50 53.50  0.00  24.00   2710.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  76.00 52.40  0.00  23.20   2733.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  73.30 53.80  0.02  22.55   2756.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  73.80 54.10  0.05  22.95   2779.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  72.00 53.00  0.07  21.50   2800.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  72.40 52.20  0.02  21.30   2821.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  71.50 52.60  0.02  21.05   2842.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  73.70 51.90  0.01  21.80   2864.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  72.50 50.80  0.06  20.65   2885.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  73.30 51.60  0.01  21.45   2906.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  73.30 51.60  0.04  21.45   2928.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  74.40 52.10  0.03  22.25   2950.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  73.00 53.40  0.05  22.20   2972.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  70.80 52.90  0.09  20.85   2993.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  69.60 51.00  0.01  19.30   3012.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  66.80 50.40  0.10  17.60   3030.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.10 49.70  0.06  18.90   3049.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  71.00 50.10  0.12  19.55   3068.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  70.80 50.60  0.02  19.70   3088.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  70.00 49.60  0.03  18.80   3107.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  70.00 51.30  0.11  19.65   3127.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  69.20 51.00  0.15  19.10   3146.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  71.60 50.30  0.00  19.95   3166.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  71.90 51.50  0.01  20.70   3186.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  70.60 50.80  0.03  19.70   3206.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  70.70 49.10  0.00  18.90   3225.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  73.70 49.60  0.00  20.65   3246.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  71.50 50.10  0.01  19.80   3265.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  68.90 50.20  0.01  18.55   3284.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  67.40 50.10  0.02  17.75   3302.1  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 1940 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 4 days ahead 2017 ok
 15 days behind 2016 ok
 5 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-16-18 860peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-18 960peak female adult emergence
 5-25-18 1010peak egg laying
 6-13-18 1287peak egg hatch
 7-20-18 2087peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)