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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 35.60 30.20 0.11 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 32.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 42.80 35.60 0.16 0.39 0.4
1 9 44.60 37.40 0.17 1.15 1.5
1 10 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 11 33.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 12 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 13 33.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 14 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 15 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 16 48.20 32.00 0.10 2.14 3.7
1 17 55.40 46.40 0.17 9.90 13.6
1 18 55.40 44.60 0.50 9.00 22.6
1 19 50.00 46.40 0.26 7.20 29.8
1 20 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 33.7
1 21 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 37.6
1 22 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 39.8
1 23 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 40.7
1 24 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 40.7
1 25 43.00 33.80 0.00 0.41 41.1
1 26 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 42.8
1 27 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 46.0
1 28 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 48.3
1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 52.2
1 30 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 53.4
1 31 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.1
2 1 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.9
2 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 55.6
2 3 39.20 32.00 0.22 0.00 55.6
2 4 44.60 35.60 0.21 1.01 56.6
2 5 42.80 32.00 0.24 0.32 56.9
2 6 35.60 28.40 0.08 0.00 56.9
2 7 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 56.9
2 8 35.60 28.40 0.21 0.00 56.9
2 9 59.00 35.60 0.26 7.43 64.3
2 10 48.20 39.20 0.04 3.05 67.4
2 11 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 70.1
2 12 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 72.4
2 13 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 75.1
2 14 59.00 33.80 0.03 7.08 82.2
2 15 59.00 48.20 0.08 12.60 94.8
2 16 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 104.7
2 17 53.60 42.80 0.01 7.20 111.9
2 18 42.80 41.00 0.11 0.90 112.8
2 19 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 116.7
2 20 48.20 41.00 0.03 3.60 120.3
2 21 46.40 37.40 0.01 1.91 122.2
2 22 44.60 33.80 0.27 0.92 123.1
2 23 42.80 28.40 0.02 0.27 123.4
2 24 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 124.2
2 25 42.80 32.00 0.28 0.32 124.6
2 26 44.60 32.00 0.35 0.84 125.4
2 27 37.40 28.40 0.11 0.00 125.4
2 28 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 125.7
3 1 44.60 41.00 0.27 1.80 127.5
3 2 46.40 42.80 0.02 3.60 131.1
3 3 50.00 35.60 0.39 3.26 134.3
3 4 44.60 32.00 0.31 0.84 135.2
3 5 44.60 35.60 0.07 1.01 136.2
3 6 42.80 32.00 0.07 0.32 136.5
3 7 41.00 35.60 0.13 0.00 136.5
3 8 46.40 33.80 0.15 1.58 138.1
3 9 48.20 37.40 0.23 2.72 140.8
3 10 51.80 42.80 0.01 6.30 147.1
3 11 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 152.5
3 12 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 161.5
3 13 51.80 46.40 0.29 8.10 169.6
3 14 60.80 46.40 0.18 12.60 182.2
3 15 53.60 46.40 0.22 9.00 191.2
3 16 51.80 35.60 0.02 4.07 195.3
3 17 48.20 39.20 0.22 3.05 198.3
3 18 53.60 33.80 0.28 4.62 202.9
3 19 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 206.0
3 20 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 210.9
3 21 59.00 44.60 0.05 10.80 221.7
3 22 55.40 42.80 0.05 8.10 229.8
3 23 55.40 42.80 0.08 8.10 237.9
3 24 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 246.0
3 25 50.00 41.00 0.22 4.50 250.5
3 26 51.80 41.00 0.18 5.40 255.9
3 27 53.60 46.40 0.02 9.00 264.9
3 28 50.00 44.60 0.09 6.30 271.2
3 29 53.60 44.60 0.36 8.10 279.3
3 30 53.60 39.20 0.01 5.67 285.0
3 31 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 291.1
4 1 55.40 46.40 0.20 9.90 301.0
4 2 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 306.7
4 3 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 311.6
4 4 54.50 38.20 0.00 5.85 317.4 Hx Hn
4 5 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 327.3
4 6 57.20 46.40 0.02 10.80 338.1
4 7 59.00 46.40 0.35 11.70 349.8
4 8 50.00 42.80 0.09 5.40 355.2
4 9 55.40 39.20 0.13 6.56 361.8
4 10 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 368.1
4 11 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 375.5
4 12 62.60 46.40 0.22 13.50 389.0
4 13 57.20 46.40 0.13 10.80 399.8
4 14 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 408.8
4 15 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 417.8
4 16 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 427.0
4 17 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 441.4
4 18 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 454.9
4 19 55.40 46.40 0.06 9.90 464.8
4 20 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 476.5
4 21 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 490.0
4 22 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 507.1
4 23 55.40 48.20 0.11 10.80 517.9
4 24 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 527.8
4 25 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 538.6
4 26 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 549.4
4 27 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 558.4
4 28 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 567.4
4 29 55.40 39.20 0.04 6.56 574.0
4 30 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 583.9
5 1 51.80 42.80 0.06 6.30 590.2
5 2 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 601.9
5 3 64.40 53.60 0.26 18.00 619.9
5 4 71.60 48.20 0.38 18.90 638.8
5 5 57.20 44.60 0.22 9.90 648.7
5 6 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 656.2
5 7 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 664.5
5 8 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 676.2
5 9 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 688.8
5 10 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 705.0
5 11 62.60 50.00 0.29 15.30 720.3
5 12 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 731.1
5 13 59.00 44.60 0.01 10.80 741.9
5 14 60.80 44.60 0.03 11.70 753.6
5 15 53.60 46.40 0.37 9.00 762.6
5 16 51.80 42.80 0.30 6.30 768.9
5 17 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 781.5
5 18 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 796.8
5 19 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 812.1
5 20 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 829.2
5 21 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 846.3
5 22 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 867.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 23 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 885.0
5 24 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 898.5
5 25 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 912.9
5 26 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 933.6
5 27 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 956.1 Peak female adult emergence
5 28 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 979.5
5 29 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 998.4
5 30 53.60 50.00 0.02 10.80 1009.2 Peak egg laying
5 31 69.80 51.80 0.02 19.80 1029.0
6 1 62.60 55.40 0.04 18.00 1047.0
6 2 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1066.8
6 3 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1081.2
6 4 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1096.5
6 5 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1111.8
6 6 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1131.6
6 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1154.1
6 8 60.80 51.80 0.51 15.30 1169.4
6 9 66.20 48.20 0.06 16.20 1185.6
6 10 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1202.7
6 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1220.7
6 12 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1235.1
6 13 62.60 51.80 0.01 16.20 1251.3
6 14 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1266.6
6 15 62.60 51.80 0.14 16.20 1282.8 Peak egg hatch
6 16 66.20 51.80 0.07 18.00 1300.8
6 17 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1315.2
6 18 64.40 51.80 0.08 17.10 1332.3
6 19 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1351.2
6 20 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1365.6
6 21 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1381.8
6 22 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1397.1
6 23 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1416.0
6 24 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1440.3
6 25 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1468.2
6 26 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1488.9
6 27 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1507.8
6 28 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1528.5
6 29 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1549.2
6 30 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1571.7
7 1 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1592.4
7 2 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1613.1
7 3 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1632.9
7 4 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1652.7
7 5 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1674.3
7 6 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1697.7
7 7 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1717.5
7 8 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1740.9
7 9 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1765.2
7 10 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1785.0
7 11 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1804.8
7 12 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1825.5
7 13 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1845.3
7 14 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1865.1
7 15 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1884.9
7 16 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1905.6
7 17 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1925.4
7 18 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1947.9
7 19 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1969.5
7 20 71.60 57.20 0.03 23.40 1992.9
7 21 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2014.5
7 22 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2041.5
7 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2064.0
7 24 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2086.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 25 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2110.8
7 26 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2134.2
7 27 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 2154.0
7 28 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 2173.8
7 29 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2196.3
7 30 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2219.7
7 31 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2243.1
8 1 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2268.3
8 2 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2296.2
8 3 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2326.8
8 4 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2352.9
8 5 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2375.4
8 6 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2399.7
8 7 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2422.2
8 8 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2446.5
8 9 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2473.5
8 10 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 2498.7
8 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2521.2
8 12 75.20 51.80 0.02 22.50 2543.7
8 13 69.80 53.60 0.03 20.70 2564.4
8 14 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 2583.3
8 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 2604.0
8 16 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2626.5
8 17 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2649.9
8 18 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2670.6
8 19 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2692.2
8 20 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2713.8
8 21 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2737.2
8 22 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2765.1
8 23 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2789.4
8 24 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2810.1
8 25 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 2829.9
8 26 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 2852.4
8 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2877.6
8 28 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2905.5
8 29 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2934.3
8 30 75.20 55.40 0.06 24.30 2958.6
8 31 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2982.0
9 1 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3005.4
9 2 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 3033.3
9 3 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3062.1
9 4 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3089.1
9 5 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 3120.6
9 6 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 3148.5
9 7 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 3173.7
9 8 68.00 59.00 0.18 22.50 3196.2
9 9 62.60 53.60 0.11 17.10 3213.3
9 10 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 3232.2
9 11 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3256.5
9 12 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3277.2
9 13 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 3293.4
9 14 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 3310.5
9 15 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 3327.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-22-17 | 867 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-27-17 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-30-17 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
6-15-17 | 1283 | Peak egg hatch |
7-24-17 | 2086 | Peak in density large larvae |