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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 41.00 33.80 0.07 0.00 0.0
1 6 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 1.7
1 7 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 1.7
1 8 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 3.4
1 9 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 4.3
1 10 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 5.1
1 11 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 7.7
1 12 51.80 42.80 0.03 6.30 14.0
1 13 53.60 41.00 0.14 6.30 20.3
1 14 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 21.9
1 15 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 22.7
1 16 53.60 41.00 0.16 6.30 29.0
1 17 50.00 46.40 0.02 7.20 36.2
1 18 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 44.3
1 19 48.20 41.00 0.16 3.60 47.9
1 20 48.20 41.00 0.03 3.60 51.5
1 21 57.20 44.60 0.16 9.90 61.4
1 22 57.20 44.60 0.23 9.90 71.3
1 23 44.60 41.00 0.40 1.80 73.1
1 24 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 77.0
1 25 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 81.4
1 26 57.20 46.40 0.04 10.80 92.2
1 27 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 107.5
1 28 57.20 41.00 0.15 8.10 115.6
1 29 48.20 41.00 0.14 3.60 119.2
1 30 44.60 33.80 0.12 0.92 120.1
1 31 42.80 37.40 0.06 0.46 120.6
2 1 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 121.7
2 2 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 123.7
2 3 46.40 39.20 0.06 2.19 125.9
2 4 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 131.3
2 5 59.00 42.80 0.09 9.90 141.2
2 6 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 144.7
2 7 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 148.2
2 8 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 153.9
2 9 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 161.8
2 10 57.20 41.00 0.08 8.10 169.9
2 11 51.80 41.00 0.27 5.40 175.3
2 12 55.40 48.20 0.53 10.80 186.1
2 13 50.00 42.80 0.26 5.40 191.5
2 14 51.80 42.80 0.28 6.30 197.8
2 15 53.60 46.40 1.52 9.00 206.8
2 16 55.40 41.00 0.06 7.20 214.0
2 17 55.40 46.40 0.38 9.90 223.9
2 18 51.80 44.60 0.16 7.20 231.1
2 19 51.80 41.00 0.37 5.40 236.5
2 20 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 240.4
2 21 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 243.5
2 22 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 247.0
2 23 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 252.8
2 24 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 260.2
2 25 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 266.0
2 26 57.20 39.20 0.01 7.44 273.4
2 27 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 283.3
2 28 53.60 42.80 0.07 7.20 290.5
2 29 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 296.8
3 1 57.20 42.80 0.24 9.00 305.8
3 2 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 314.8
3 3 57.20 48.20 0.03 11.70 326.5
3 4 55.40 44.60 0.06 9.00 335.5
3 5 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 349.0
3 6 59.00 42.80 0.04 9.90 358.9
3 7 48.20 41.00 0.87 3.60 362.5
3 8 51.80 42.80 0.06 6.30 368.8
3 9 55.40 42.80 0.03 8.10 376.9
3 10 57.20 46.40 0.01 10.80 387.7
3 11 57.20 42.80 0.04 9.00 396.7
3 12 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 403.0
3 13 50.00 41.00 0.07 4.50 407.5
3 14 48.20 41.00 0.30 3.60 411.1
3 15 50.00 39.20 0.09 3.92 415.0
3 16 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 418.1
3 17 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 423.2
3 18 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 433.3
3 19 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 447.7
3 20 57.20 48.20 0.03 11.70 459.4
3 21 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 471.1
3 22 55.40 44.60 0.09 9.00 480.1
3 23 50.00 46.40 0.36 7.20 487.3
3 24 50.00 42.80 0.12 5.40 492.7
3 25 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 498.4
3 26 59.00 39.20 0.10 8.33 506.7
3 27 48.20 39.20 0.25 3.05 509.8
3 28 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 514.7
3 29 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 522.1
3 30 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 533.1
3 31 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 546.6
4 1 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 557.4
4 2 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 565.5
4 3 68.00 41.00 0.03 13.50 579.0
4 4 57.20 46.40 0.67 10.80 589.8
4 5 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 598.8
4 6 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 614.1
4 7 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 629.4
4 8 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 642.9
4 9 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 654.6
4 10 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 665.4
4 11 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 674.4
4 12 55.40 46.40 0.20 9.90 684.3
4 13 57.20 44.60 0.12 9.90 694.2
4 14 50.00 42.80 0.08 5.40 699.6
4 15 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 709.5
4 16 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 721.2
4 17 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 733.8
4 18 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 757.2
4 19 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 777.9
4 20 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 798.6
4 21 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 816.6
4 22 60.80 48.20 0.37 13.50 830.1
4 23 59.00 50.00 0.36 13.50 843.6
4 24 53.60 48.20 0.09 9.90 853.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 25 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 863.4
4 26 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 872.4
4 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 883.2
4 28 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 898.5
4 29 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 910.2
4 30 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 921.0
5 1 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 936.3
5 2 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 966.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 3 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 984.9
5 4 57.20 50.00 0.03 12.60 997.5
5 5 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 1011.8 Peak egg laying
5 6 68.00 45.00 0.00 15.50 1027.3
5 7 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1047.1
5 8 60.80 44.60 0.03 11.70 1058.8
5 9 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 1070.5
5 10 69.80 46.00 0.00 16.90 1087.4
5 11 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1107.2
5 12 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1124.3
5 13 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 1143.1
5 14 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1158.4
5 15 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1171.9
5 16 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1187.2
5 17 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1203.4
5 18 59.00 50.00 0.16 13.50 1216.9
5 19 59.00 46.40 0.21 11.70 1228.6
5 20 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 1242.1
5 21 59.00 48.20 0.11 12.60 1254.7
5 22 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1271.8 Peak egg hatch
5 23 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1287.1
5 24 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1304.2
5 25 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1320.4
5 26 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1334.8
5 27 59.00 48.20 0.04 12.60 1347.4
5 28 60.80 48.20 0.18 13.50 1360.9
5 29 62.60 48.20 0.26 14.40 1375.3
5 30 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1388.8
5 31 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1407.7
6 1 69.80 53.60 0.05 20.70 1428.4
6 2 64.40 55.40 0.03 18.90 1447.3
6 3 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1468.9
6 4 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 1493.2
6 5 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1522.0
6 6 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1546.3
6 7 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1567.9
6 8 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1585.9
6 9 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1603.0
6 10 62.60 50.00 0.04 15.30 1618.3
6 11 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1634.5
6 12 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1651.6
6 13 55.40 48.20 0.43 10.80 1662.4
6 14 55.40 46.40 0.27 9.90 1672.3
6 15 62.60 46.40 0.01 13.50 1685.8
6 16 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1699.3
6 17 66.20 44.60 0.01 14.40 1713.7
6 18 57.20 50.00 0.46 12.60 1726.3
6 19 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 1740.5
6 20 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1760.3
6 21 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1780.1
6 22 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1800.8
6 23 60.80 53.60 0.34 16.20 1817.0
6 24 64.40 50.00 0.02 16.20 1833.2
6 25 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1853.0
6 26 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1871.9
6 27 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1896.2
6 28 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1918.7
6 29 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1938.5
6 30 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1958.3
7 1 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1976.3
7 2 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1997.9
7 3 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 2017.7
7 4 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 2034.8
7 5 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 2050.1
7 6 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2070.8 Peak in density large larvae
7 7 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 2090.6
7 8 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2115.8
7 9 71.60 57.20 0.16 23.40 2139.2
7 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2162.6
7 11 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2184.2
7 12 73.40 53.60 0.01 22.50 2206.7
7 13 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2228.3
7 14 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2249.0
7 15 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2271.5
7 16 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2294.9
7 17 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2319.2
7 18 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2341.7
7 19 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2366.9
7 20 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2391.2
7 21 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2414.6
7 22 66.20 57.20 0.03 20.70 2435.3
7 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2457.8
7 24 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2481.2
7 25 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2507.3
7 26 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2530.7
7 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2555.9
7 28 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2581.1
7 29 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2609.2
7 30 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2632.6
7 31 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2654.2
8 1 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2674.9
8 2 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2696.5
8 3 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2719.0
8 4 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2741.5
8 5 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2763.1
8 6 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2783.8
8 7 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 2803.6
8 8 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2824.3
8 9 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2846.8
8 10 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2871.1
8 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2893.6
8 12 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2922.4
8 13 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2952.1
8 14 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2976.4
8 15 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 3001.6
8 16 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3026.8
8 17 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 3049.3
8 18 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3074.5
8 19 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 3106.0
8 20 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 3135.7
8 21 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3155.5
8 22 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3176.2
8 23 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3197.8
8 24 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3221.2
8 25 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 3250.0
8 26 91.40 55.40 0.19 32.40 3282.4
8 27 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 3304.9
8 28 68.00 53.60 0.04 19.80 3324.7
8 29 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3348.1
8 30 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3368.8
8 31 66.20 59.00 2.33 21.60 3390.4
9 1 66.20 57.20 0.28 20.70 3411.1
9 2 68.00 53.60 0.13 19.80 3430.9
9 3 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 3448.0
9 4 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 3465.1
9 5 62.60 48.20 0.04 14.40 3479.5
9 6 66.20 55.40 0.01 19.80 3499.3
9 7 62.60 55.40 0.07 18.00 3517.3
9 8 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 3535.3
9 9 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 3553.3
9 10 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3574.0
9 11 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 3592.0
9 12 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 3610.0
9 13 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 3628.9
9 14 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3649.6
9 15 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 3667.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-24-16 | 854 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-2-16 | 966 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-5-16 | 1012 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-22-16 | 1272 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-6-16 | 2071 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2902196)
