Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 41.00 33.80 0.07 0.00 0.0 1 6 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 1.7 1 7 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 1.7 1 8 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 3.4 1 9 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 4.3 1 10 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 5.1 1 11 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 7.7 1 12 51.80 42.80 0.03 6.30 14.0 1 13 53.60 41.00 0.14 6.30 20.3 1 14 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 21.9 1 15 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 22.7 1 16 53.60 41.00 0.16 6.30 29.0 1 17 50.00 46.40 0.02 7.20 36.2 1 18 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 44.3 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.16 3.60 47.9 1 20 48.20 41.00 0.03 3.60 51.5 1 21 57.20 44.60 0.16 9.90 61.4 1 22 57.20 44.60 0.23 9.90 71.3 1 23 44.60 41.00 0.40 1.80 73.1 1 24 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 77.0 1 25 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 81.4 1 26 57.20 46.40 0.04 10.80 92.2 1 27 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 107.5 1 28 57.20 41.00 0.15 8.10 115.6 1 29 48.20 41.00 0.14 3.60 119.2 1 30 44.60 33.80 0.12 0.92 120.1 1 31 42.80 37.40 0.06 0.46 120.6 2 1 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 121.7 2 2 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 123.7 2 3 46.40 39.20 0.06 2.19 125.9 2 4 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 131.3 2 5 59.00 42.80 0.09 9.90 141.2 2 6 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 144.7 2 7 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 148.2 2 8 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 153.9 2 9 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 161.8 2 10 57.20 41.00 0.08 8.10 169.9 2 11 51.80 41.00 0.27 5.40 175.3 2 12 55.40 48.20 0.53 10.80 186.1 2 13 50.00 42.80 0.26 5.40 191.5 2 14 51.80 42.80 0.28 6.30 197.8 2 15 53.60 46.40 1.52 9.00 206.8 2 16 55.40 41.00 0.06 7.20 214.0 2 17 55.40 46.40 0.38 9.90 223.9 2 18 51.80 44.60 0.16 7.20 231.1 2 19 51.80 41.00 0.37 5.40 236.5 2 20 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 240.4 2 21 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 243.5 2 22 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 247.0 2 23 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 252.8 2 24 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 260.2 2 25 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 266.0 2 26 57.20 39.20 0.01 7.44 273.4 2 27 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 283.3 2 28 53.60 42.80 0.07 7.20 290.5 2 29 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 296.8 3 1 57.20 42.80 0.24 9.00 305.8 3 2 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 314.8 3 3 57.20 48.20 0.03 11.70 326.5 3 4 55.40 44.60 0.06 9.00 335.5 3 5 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 349.0 3 6 59.00 42.80 0.04 9.90 358.9 3 7 48.20 41.00 0.87 3.60 362.5 3 8 51.80 42.80 0.06 6.30 368.8 3 9 55.40 42.80 0.03 8.10 376.9 3 10 57.20 46.40 0.01 10.80 387.7 3 11 57.20 42.80 0.04 9.00 396.7 3 12 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 403.0 3 13 50.00 41.00 0.07 4.50 407.5 3 14 48.20 41.00 0.30 3.60 411.1 3 15 50.00 39.20 0.09 3.92 415.0 3 16 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 418.1 3 17 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 423.2 3 18 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 433.3 3 19 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 447.7 3 20 57.20 48.20 0.03 11.70 459.4 3 21 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 471.1 3 22 55.40 44.60 0.09 9.00 480.1 3 23 50.00 46.40 0.36 7.20 487.3 3 24 50.00 42.80 0.12 5.40 492.7 3 25 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 498.4 3 26 59.00 39.20 0.10 8.33 506.7 3 27 48.20 39.20 0.25 3.05 509.8 3 28 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 514.7 3 29 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 522.1 3 30 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 533.1 3 31 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 546.6 4 1 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 557.4 4 2 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 565.5 4 3 68.00 41.00 0.03 13.50 579.0 4 4 57.20 46.40 0.67 10.80 589.8 4 5 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 598.8 4 6 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 614.1 4 7 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 629.4 4 8 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 642.9 4 9 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 654.6 4 10 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 665.4 4 11 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 674.4 4 12 55.40 46.40 0.20 9.90 684.3 4 13 57.20 44.60 0.12 9.90 694.2 4 14 50.00 42.80 0.08 5.40 699.6 4 15 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 709.5 4 16 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 721.2 4 17 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 733.8 4 18 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 757.2 4 19 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 777.9 4 20 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 798.6 4 21 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 816.6 4 22 60.80 48.20 0.37 13.50 830.1 4 23 59.00 50.00 0.36 13.50 843.6 4 24 53.60 48.20 0.09 9.90 853.5 peak pheromone trap catch 4 25 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 863.4 4 26 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 872.4 4 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 883.2 4 28 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 898.5 4 29 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 910.2 4 30 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 921.0 5 1 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 936.3 5 2 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 966.0 peak female adult emergence 5 3 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 984.9 5 4 57.20 50.00 0.03 12.60 997.5 5 5 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 1011.8 peak egg laying 5 6 68.00 45.00 0.00 15.50 1027.3 5 7 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1047.1 5 8 60.80 44.60 0.03 11.70 1058.8 5 9 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 1070.5 5 10 69.80 46.00 0.00 16.90 1087.4 5 11 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1107.2 5 12 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1124.3 5 13 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 1143.1 5 14 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1158.4 5 15 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1171.9 5 16 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1187.2 5 17 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1203.4 5 18 59.00 50.00 0.16 13.50 1216.9 5 19 59.00 46.40 0.21 11.70 1228.6 5 20 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 1242.1 5 21 59.00 48.20 0.11 12.60 1254.7 5 22 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1271.8 peak egg hatch 5 23 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1287.1 5 24 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1304.2 5 25 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1320.4 5 26 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1334.8 5 27 59.00 48.20 0.04 12.60 1347.4 5 28 60.80 48.20 0.18 13.50 1360.9 5 29 62.60 48.20 0.26 14.40 1375.3 5 30 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1388.8 5 31 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1407.7 6 1 69.80 53.60 0.05 20.70 1428.4 6 2 64.40 55.40 0.03 18.90 1447.3 6 3 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1468.9 6 4 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 1493.2 6 5 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1522.0 6 6 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1546.3 6 7 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1567.9 6 8 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1585.9 6 9 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1603.0 6 10 62.60 50.00 0.04 15.30 1618.3 6 11 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1634.5 6 12 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1651.6 6 13 55.40 48.20 0.43 10.80 1662.4 6 14 55.40 46.40 0.27 9.90 1672.3 6 15 62.60 46.40 0.01 13.50 1685.8 6 16 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1699.3 6 17 66.20 44.60 0.01 14.40 1713.7 6 18 57.20 50.00 0.46 12.60 1726.3 6 19 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 1740.5 6 20 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1760.3 6 21 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1780.1 6 22 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1800.8 6 23 60.80 53.60 0.34 16.20 1817.0 6 24 64.40 50.00 0.02 16.20 1833.2 6 25 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1853.0 6 26 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1871.9 6 27 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1896.2 6 28 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1918.7 6 29 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1938.5 6 30 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1958.3 7 1 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1976.3 7 2 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1997.9 7 3 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 2017.7 7 4 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 2034.8 7 5 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 2050.1 7 6 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2070.8 peak in density large larvae 7 7 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 2090.6 7 8 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2115.8 7 9 71.60 57.20 0.16 23.40 2139.2 7 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2162.6 7 11 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2184.2 7 12 73.40 53.60 0.01 22.50 2206.7 7 13 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2228.3 7 14 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2249.0 7 15 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2271.5 7 16 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2294.9 7 17 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2319.2 7 18 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2341.7 7 19 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2366.9 7 20 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2391.2 7 21 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2414.6 7 22 66.20 57.20 0.03 20.70 2435.3 7 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2457.8 7 24 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2481.2 7 25 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2507.3 7 26 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2530.7 7 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2555.9 7 28 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2581.1 7 29 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2609.2 7 30 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2632.6 7 31 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2654.2 8 1 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2674.9 8 2 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2696.5 8 3 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2719.0 8 4 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2741.5 8 5 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2763.1 8 6 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2783.8 8 7 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 2803.6 8 8 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2824.3 8 9 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2846.8 8 10 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2871.1 8 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2893.6 8 12 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2922.4 8 13 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2952.1 8 14 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2976.4 8 15 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 3001.6 8 16 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3026.8 8 17 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 3049.3 8 18 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3074.5 8 19 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 3106.0 8 20 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 3135.7 8 21 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3155.5 8 22 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3176.2 8 23 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3197.8 8 24 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3221.2 8 25 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 3250.0 8 26 91.40 55.40 0.19 32.40 3282.4 8 27 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 3304.9 8 28 68.00 53.60 0.04 19.80 3324.7 8 29 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3348.1 8 30 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3368.8 8 31 66.20 59.00 2.33 21.60 3390.4 9 1 66.20 57.20 0.28 20.70 3411.1 9 2 68.00 53.60 0.13 19.80 3430.9 9 3 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 3448.0 9 4 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 3465.1 9 5 62.60 48.20 0.04 14.40 3479.5 9 6 66.20 55.40 0.01 19.80 3499.3 9 7 62.60 55.40 0.07 18.00 3517.3 9 8 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 3535.3 9 9 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 3553.3 9 10 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3574.0 9 11 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 3592.0 9 12 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 3610.0 9 13 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 3628.9 9 14 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3649.6 9 15 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 3667.6 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBVS 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2016 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
DD accumulation on 3-17-17: 36 QA 99% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 3-31-17: 54 QA 100% ok  - show details Extended seasonal forecast: NOAA NMME  
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 2 days behind 2016 ok
 18 days behind 2015 ok
 3 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 4-14-17: 1704 QA 100% ok  - show details QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-17-17: 3375QA 90% ok - OK - 10% of data estimated  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 4-24-16 854peak pheromone trap catch
 5-2-16 966peak female adult emergence
 5-5-16 1012peak egg laying
 5-22-16 1272peak egg hatch
 7-6-16 2071peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)