Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2015 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 32.00 0.25 0.00 0.0 1 3 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 48.20 37.40 0.98 2.72 2.7 1 5 55.40 42.80 3.51 8.10 10.8 1 6 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 17.4 1 7 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 19.1 1 8 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 20.7 1 9 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 22.1 1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 23.5 1 11 46.40 42.80 0.17 3.60 27.1 1 12 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 30.1 1 13 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 31.1 1 14 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 32.5 1 15 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 36.9 1 16 53.60 42.80 0.06 7.20 44.1 1 17 48.20 39.20 0.55 3.05 47.2 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.32 9.00 56.2 1 19 51.80 37.40 0.22 4.38 60.5 1 20 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 62.5 1 21 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 63.5 1 22 50.00 39.20 0.12 3.92 67.4 1 23 57.20 48.20 0.51 11.70 79.1 1 24 57.20 53.60 0.63 14.40 93.5 1 25 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 103.4 1 26 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 115.3 1 27 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 121.6 1 28 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 127.3 1 29 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 130.5 1 30 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 134.1 1 31 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 135.8 2 1 48.20 41.00 0.06 3.60 139.4 2 2 48.20 44.60 0.35 5.40 144.8 2 3 48.20 44.60 0.13 5.40 150.2 2 4 50.00 42.80 0.19 5.40 155.6 2 5 59.00 46.40 0.22 11.70 167.3 2 6 59.00 53.60 0.17 15.30 182.6 2 7 57.20 50.00 0.98 12.60 195.2 2 8 60.80 50.00 0.06 14.40 209.6 2 9 57.20 48.20 0.31 11.70 221.3 2 10 51.80 46.40 0.52 8.10 229.4 2 11 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 240.2 2 12 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 250.1 2 13 57.20 42.80 0.33 9.00 259.1 2 14 53.60 37.40 0.05 5.24 264.4 2 15 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 267.4 2 16 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 273.7 2 17 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 278.3 2 18 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 284.0 2 19 50.00 46.40 0.34 7.20 291.2 2 20 51.80 39.20 0.17 4.79 296.0 2 21 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 302.6 2 22 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 306.7 2 23 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 311.3 2 24 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 314.9 2 25 46.40 41.00 0.05 2.70 317.6 2 26 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 323.9 2 27 50.00 39.20 0.48 3.92 327.8 2 28 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 333.0 3 1 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 336.4 3 2 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 340.0 3 3 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 342.1 3 4 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 345.6 3 5 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 350.2 3 6 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 355.4 3 7 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 361.2 3 8 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 368.1 3 9 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 373.5 3 10 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 379.8 3 11 53.60 53.60 0.11 12.60 392.4 3 12 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 405.0 3 13 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 417.6 3 14 53.60 53.60 0.37 12.60 430.2 3 15 53.60 53.60 1.37 12.60 442.8 3 16 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 455.4 3 17 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 468.0 3 18 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 480.6 3 19 53.60 53.60 0.17 12.60 493.2 3 20 53.60 53.60 0.11 12.60 505.8 3 21 53.60 53.60 0.68 12.60 518.4 3 22 53.60 53.60 0.02 12.60 531.0 3 23 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 543.6 3 24 53.60 53.60 0.08 12.60 556.2 3 25 53.60 53.60 0.28 12.60 568.8 3 26 62.80 48.20 0.00 14.50 583.3 Vx 3 27 66.20 46.40 0.21 15.30 598.6 3 28 59.00 48.20 0.01 12.60 611.2 3 29 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 626.5 3 30 64.40 51.80 0.01 17.10 643.6 3 31 55.40 42.80 0.07 8.10 651.7 4 1 53.60 41.00 0.02 6.30 658.0 4 2 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 664.6 4 3 51.80 39.20 0.97 4.79 669.4 4 4 55.40 35.60 0.03 5.73 675.1 4 5 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 682.1 4 6 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 687.8 4 7 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 695.2 4 8 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 705.1 4 9 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 714.7 4 10 57.20 41.00 0.02 8.10 722.8 4 11 51.80 39.20 0.04 4.79 727.6 4 12 55.40 41.00 0.03 7.20 734.8 4 13 51.80 41.00 0.12 5.40 740.2 4 14 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 745.4 4 15 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 751.5 4 16 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 760.7 4 17 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 771.5 4 18 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 780.5 4 19 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 790.7 4 20 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 805.1 4 21 59.00 44.60 0.03 10.80 815.9 4 22 55.40 44.60 0.12 9.00 824.9 4 23 50.00 42.80 0.32 5.40 830.3 4 24 55.40 41.00 0.03 7.20 837.5 4 25 53.60 37.40 0.11 5.24 842.7 4 26 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 850.5 peak pheromone trap catch 4 27 68.00 50.00 0.02 18.00 868.5 4 28 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 881.1 4 29 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 891.9 4 30 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 904.5 5 1 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 917.1 5 2 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 927.0 5 3 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 936.6 5 4 62.60 41.00 0.06 10.80 947.4 5 5 59.00 41.00 0.43 9.00 956.4 peak female adult emergence 5 6 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 965.4 5 7 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 975.9 5 8 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 991.2 5 9 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1010.1 peak egg laying 5 10 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1026.3 5 11 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1040.7 5 12 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1055.1 5 13 55.40 50.00 0.09 11.70 1066.8 5 14 62.60 48.20 0.01 14.40 1081.2 5 15 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 1093.8 5 16 59.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 1109.1 5 17 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1127.1 5 18 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1144.2 5 19 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1160.4 5 20 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1179.3 5 21 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1198.2 5 22 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1214.4 5 23 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 1229.7 5 24 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1245.0 5 25 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1260.3 5 26 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1278.3 peak egg hatch 5 27 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1297.2 5 28 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1318.8 5 29 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1338.6 5 30 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1355.7 5 31 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 1371.9 6 1 62.60 51.80 0.04 16.20 1388.1 6 2 60.80 53.60 0.14 16.20 1404.3 6 3 62.60 50.00 0.02 15.30 1419.6 6 4 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1436.7 6 5 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1455.6 6 6 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1477.2 6 7 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1501.5 6 8 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1524.9 6 9 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1544.7 6 10 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1565.4 6 11 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1584.3 6 12 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1601.4 6 13 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1616.7 6 14 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1635.6 6 15 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1659.9 6 16 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1677.9 6 17 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1697.7 6 18 69.80 53.60 0.24 20.70 1718.4 6 19 68.00 50.00 0.01 18.00 1736.4 6 20 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1754.4 6 21 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1775.1 6 22 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1794.0 6 23 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1814.7 6 24 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 1839.0 6 25 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1865.1 6 26 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1891.2 6 27 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1919.1 6 28 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 1948.8 6 29 82.40 60.80 0.01 30.60 1979.4 6 30 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2006.4 7 1 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2032.5 7 2 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 2064.9 7 3 82.40 60.80 0.00 30.60 2095.5 peak in density large larvae 7 4 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2123.4 7 5 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2150.4 7 6 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2175.6 7 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2198.1 7 8 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2223.3 7 9 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2246.7 7 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2270.1 7 11 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2293.5 7 12 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2321.4 7 13 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2344.8 7 14 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2367.3 7 15 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2389.8 7 16 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2414.1 7 17 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2436.6 7 18 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2464.5 7 19 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 2498.7 7 20 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2524.8 7 21 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2546.4 7 22 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2568.0 7 23 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2591.4 7 24 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2612.1 7 25 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2633.7 7 26 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 2653.5 7 27 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2675.1 7 28 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2700.3 7 29 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2729.1 7 30 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2758.8 7 31 86.00 55.40 0.03 29.70 2788.5 8 1 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2815.5 8 2 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2842.5 8 3 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2865.9 8 4 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2890.2 8 5 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 2907.3 8 6 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2930.7 8 7 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2954.1 8 8 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2980.2 8 9 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 3007.2 8 10 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 3032.4 8 11 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3057.6 8 12 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 3086.4 8 13 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 3113.4 8 14 64.40 53.60 0.22 18.00 3131.4 8 15 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3152.1 8 16 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3173.7 8 17 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3194.4 8 18 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3219.6 8 19 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 3250.2 8 20 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3273.6 8 21 73.40 53.60 0.05 22.50 3296.1 8 22 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3319.5 8 23 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3343.8 8 24 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 3363.6 8 25 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3384.3 8 26 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 3405.9 8 27 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3432.9 8 28 73.40 57.20 0.09 24.30 3457.2 8 29 71.60 59.00 0.35 24.30 3481.5 8 30 71.60 55.40 0.34 22.50 3504.0 8 31 62.60 59.00 0.26 19.80 3523.8 9 1 62.60 55.40 0.42 18.00 3541.8 9 2 66.20 50.00 0.18 17.10 3558.9 9 3 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 3572.4 9 4 62.60 46.40 0.21 13.50 3585.9 9 5 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 3600.3 9 6 59.00 48.20 0.44 12.60 3612.9 9 7 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 3630.9 9 8 68.00 55.40 0.02 20.70 3651.6 9 9 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3674.1 9 10 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 3693.9 9 11 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3716.4 9 12 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3739.8 9 13 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 3756.9 9 14 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 3770.4 9 15 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 3793.8 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBVS 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2015 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
QA 96% ok  - show details QA 100% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 4-26-15 851peak pheromone trap catch
 5-5-15 956peak female adult emergence
 5-9-15 1010peak egg laying
 5-26-15 1278peak egg hatch
 7-3-15 2095peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)