|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.40 32.00 0.25 0.00 0.0
1 3 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 48.20 37.40 0.98 2.72 2.7
1 5 55.40 42.80 3.51 8.10 10.8
1 6 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 17.4
1 7 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 19.1
1 8 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 20.7
1 9 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 22.1
1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 23.5
1 11 46.40 42.80 0.17 3.60 27.1
1 12 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 30.1
1 13 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 31.1
1 14 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 32.5
1 15 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 36.9
1 16 53.60 42.80 0.06 7.20 44.1
1 17 48.20 39.20 0.55 3.05 47.2
1 18 55.40 44.60 0.32 9.00 56.2
1 19 51.80 37.40 0.22 4.38 60.5
1 20 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 62.5
1 21 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 63.5
1 22 50.00 39.20 0.12 3.92 67.4
1 23 57.20 48.20 0.51 11.70 79.1
1 24 57.20 53.60 0.63 14.40 93.5
1 25 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 103.4
1 26 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 115.3
1 27 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 121.6
1 28 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 127.3
1 29 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 130.5
1 30 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 134.1
1 31 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 135.8
2 1 48.20 41.00 0.06 3.60 139.4
2 2 48.20 44.60 0.35 5.40 144.8
2 3 48.20 44.60 0.13 5.40 150.2
2 4 50.00 42.80 0.19 5.40 155.6
2 5 59.00 46.40 0.22 11.70 167.3
2 6 59.00 53.60 0.17 15.30 182.6
2 7 57.20 50.00 0.98 12.60 195.2
2 8 60.80 50.00 0.06 14.40 209.6
2 9 57.20 48.20 0.31 11.70 221.3
2 10 51.80 46.40 0.52 8.10 229.4
2 11 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 240.2
2 12 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 250.1
2 13 57.20 42.80 0.33 9.00 259.1
2 14 53.60 37.40 0.05 5.24 264.4
2 15 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 267.4
2 16 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 273.7
2 17 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 278.3
2 18 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 284.0
2 19 50.00 46.40 0.34 7.20 291.2
2 20 51.80 39.20 0.17 4.79 296.0
2 21 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 302.6
2 22 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 306.7
2 23 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 311.3
2 24 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 314.9
2 25 46.40 41.00 0.05 2.70 317.6
2 26 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 323.9
2 27 50.00 39.20 0.48 3.92 327.8
2 28 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 333.0
3 1 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 336.4
3 2 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 340.0
3 3 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 342.1
3 4 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 345.6
3 5 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 350.2
3 6 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 355.4
3 7 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 361.2
3 8 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 368.1
3 9 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 373.5
3 10 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 379.8
3 11 53.60 53.60 0.11 12.60 392.4
3 12 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 405.0
3 13 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 417.6
3 14 53.60 53.60 0.37 12.60 430.2
3 15 53.60 53.60 1.37 12.60 442.8
3 16 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 455.4
3 17 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 468.0
3 18 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 480.6
3 19 53.60 53.60 0.17 12.60 493.2
3 20 53.60 53.60 0.11 12.60 505.8
3 21 53.60 53.60 0.68 12.60 518.4
3 22 53.60 53.60 0.02 12.60 531.0
3 23 53.60 53.60 0.00 12.60 543.6
3 24 53.60 53.60 0.08 12.60 556.2
3 25 53.60 53.60 0.28 12.60 568.8
3 26 62.80 48.20 0.00 14.50 583.3 Vx
3 27 66.20 46.40 0.21 15.30 598.6
3 28 59.00 48.20 0.01 12.60 611.2
3 29 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 626.5
3 30 64.40 51.80 0.01 17.10 643.6
3 31 55.40 42.80 0.07 8.10 651.7
4 1 53.60 41.00 0.02 6.30 658.0
4 2 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 664.6
4 3 51.80 39.20 0.97 4.79 669.4
4 4 55.40 35.60 0.03 5.73 675.1
4 5 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 682.1
4 6 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 687.8
4 7 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 695.2
4 8 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 705.1
4 9 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 714.7
4 10 57.20 41.00 0.02 8.10 722.8
4 11 51.80 39.20 0.04 4.79 727.6
4 12 55.40 41.00 0.03 7.20 734.8
4 13 51.80 41.00 0.12 5.40 740.2
4 14 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 745.4
4 15 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 751.5
4 16 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 760.7
4 17 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 771.5
4 18 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 780.5
4 19 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 790.7
4 20 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 805.1
4 21 59.00 44.60 0.03 10.80 815.9
4 22 55.40 44.60 0.12 9.00 824.9
4 23 50.00 42.80 0.32 5.40 830.3
4 24 55.40 41.00 0.03 7.20 837.5
4 25 53.60 37.40 0.11 5.24 842.7
4 26 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 850.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 27 68.00 50.00 0.02 18.00 868.5
4 28 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 881.1
4 29 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 891.9
4 30 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 904.5
5 1 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 917.1
5 2 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 927.0
5 3 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 936.6
5 4 62.60 41.00 0.06 10.80 947.4
5 5 59.00 41.00 0.43 9.00 956.4 Peak female adult emergence
5 6 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 965.4
5 7 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 975.9
5 8 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 991.2
5 9 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1010.1 Peak egg laying
5 10 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1026.3
5 11 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1040.7
5 12 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1055.1
5 13 55.40 50.00 0.09 11.70 1066.8
5 14 62.60 48.20 0.01 14.40 1081.2
5 15 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 1093.8
5 16 59.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 1109.1
5 17 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1127.1
5 18 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1144.2
5 19 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1160.4
5 20 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1179.3
5 21 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1198.2
5 22 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1214.4
5 23 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 1229.7
5 24 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1245.0
5 25 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1260.3
5 26 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1278.3 Peak egg hatch
5 27 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1297.2
5 28 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1318.8
5 29 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1338.6
5 30 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1355.7
5 31 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 1371.9
6 1 62.60 51.80 0.04 16.20 1388.1
6 2 60.80 53.60 0.14 16.20 1404.3
6 3 62.60 50.00 0.02 15.30 1419.6
6 4 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1436.7
6 5 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1455.6
6 6 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1477.2
6 7 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1501.5
6 8 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1524.9
6 9 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1544.7
6 10 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1565.4
6 11 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1584.3
6 12 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1601.4
6 13 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1616.7
6 14 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1635.6
6 15 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1659.9
6 16 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1677.9
6 17 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1697.7
6 18 69.80 53.60 0.24 20.70 1718.4
6 19 68.00 50.00 0.01 18.00 1736.4
6 20 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1754.4
6 21 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1775.1
6 22 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1794.0
6 23 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1814.7
6 24 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 1839.0
6 25 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1865.1
6 26 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1891.2
6 27 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1919.1
6 28 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 1948.8
6 29 82.40 60.80 0.01 30.60 1979.4
6 30 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2006.4
7 1 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2032.5
7 2 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 2064.9
7 3 82.40 60.80 0.00 30.60 2095.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 4 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2123.4
7 5 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2150.4
7 6 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2175.6
7 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2198.1
7 8 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2223.3
7 9 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2246.7
7 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2270.1
7 11 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2293.5
7 12 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2321.4
7 13 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2344.8
7 14 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2367.3
7 15 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2389.8
7 16 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2414.1
7 17 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2436.6
7 18 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2464.5
7 19 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 2498.7
7 20 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2524.8
7 21 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2546.4
7 22 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2568.0
7 23 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2591.4
7 24 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2612.1
7 25 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2633.7
7 26 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 2653.5
7 27 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2675.1
7 28 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2700.3
7 29 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2729.1
7 30 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2758.8
7 31 86.00 55.40 0.03 29.70 2788.5
8 1 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2815.5
8 2 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2842.5
8 3 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2865.9
8 4 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2890.2
8 5 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 2907.3
8 6 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2930.7
8 7 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2954.1
8 8 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2980.2
8 9 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 3007.2
8 10 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 3032.4
8 11 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3057.6
8 12 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 3086.4
8 13 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 3113.4
8 14 64.40 53.60 0.22 18.00 3131.4
8 15 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3152.1
8 16 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3173.7
8 17 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3194.4
8 18 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3219.6
8 19 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 3250.2
8 20 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3273.6
8 21 73.40 53.60 0.05 22.50 3296.1
8 22 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3319.5
8 23 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3343.8
8 24 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 3363.6
8 25 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3384.3
8 26 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 3405.9
8 27 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3432.9
8 28 73.40 57.20 0.09 24.30 3457.2
8 29 71.60 59.00 0.35 24.30 3481.5
8 30 71.60 55.40 0.34 22.50 3504.0
8 31 62.60 59.00 0.26 19.80 3523.8
9 1 62.60 55.40 0.42 18.00 3541.8
9 2 66.20 50.00 0.18 17.10 3558.9
9 3 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 3572.4
9 4 62.60 46.40 0.21 13.50 3585.9
9 5 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 3600.3
9 6 59.00 48.20 0.44 12.60 3612.9
9 7 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 3630.9
9 8 68.00 55.40 0.02 20.70 3651.6
9 9 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3674.1
9 10 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 3693.9
9 11 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3716.4
9 12 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3739.8
9 13 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 3756.9
9 14 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 3770.4
9 15 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 3793.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-26-15 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-5-15 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-9-15 | 1010 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-26-15 | 1278 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-3-15 | 2095 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3931807)
