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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.29 0.3 * START *
1 2 48.20 33.10 0.65 2.23 2.5
1 3 54.00 44.60 0.83 8.30 10.8
1 4 52.00 45.00 0.19 7.50 18.3
1 5 50.00 39.20 0.13 3.92 22.2
1 6 46.90 33.80 0.30 1.77 24.0
1 7 45.00 28.00 0.30 0.84 24.9
1 8 41.00 30.20 0.06 0.00 24.9
1 9 57.20 39.00 0.06 7.38 32.2
1 10 55.40 44.60 0.02 9.00 41.2
1 11 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 45.9
1 12 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 49.9
1 13 53.60 28.90 0.00 4.06 53.9
1 14 51.80 26.60 0.00 3.15 57.1
1 15 46.90 26.10 0.00 1.38 58.5
1 16 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 60.0
1 17 55.90 39.00 0.11 6.75 66.7
1 18 51.80 44.10 0.28 6.95 73.7
1 19 53.60 39.90 0.07 5.88 79.6
1 20 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 81.5
1 21 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 82.7
1 22 46.00 33.80 1.26 1.42 84.2
1 23 46.90 35.60 0.03 1.93 86.1
1 24 46.40 34.00 0.00 1.59 87.7
1 25 46.90 39.00 0.00 2.39 90.1
1 26 50.00 33.10 0.00 2.97 93.0
1 27 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 93.8
1 28 51.80 28.40 0.00 3.29 97.1
1 29 48.90 24.80 0.00 1.99 99.0
1 30 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.84 99.9
1 31 48.90 37.00 0.08 2.97 102.9
2 1 48.90 41.00 0.29 3.95 106.8
2 2 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 109.5
2 3 39.90 17.60 0.02 0.00 109.5
2 4 25.00 15.10 0.05 0.00 109.5
2 5 33.80 16.00 0.00 0.00 109.5
2 6 37.40 19.00 0.00 0.00 109.5
2 7 36.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 109.5
2 8 35.60 24.80 0.01 0.00 109.5
2 9 27.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 109.5
2 10 39.90 15.10 0.05 0.00 109.5
2 11 27.00 19.00 0.01 0.00 109.5
2 12 28.90 24.80 0.11 0.00 109.5
2 13 46.40 21.00 0.02 1.08 110.6
2 14 46.40 19.00 0.11 1.04 111.6
2 15 44.60 30.20 0.10 0.78 112.4
2 16 42.80 28.40 0.04 0.27 112.7
2 17 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 113.4
2 18 36.00 24.80 0.03 0.00 113.4
2 19 39.20 30.20 0.31 0.00 113.4
2 20 43.00 30.00 0.16 0.34 113.7
2 21 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 114.6
2 22 41.00 33.10 0.04 0.00 114.6
2 23 45.00 33.80 0.07 1.06 115.7
2 24 44.60 33.10 0.01 0.88 116.6
2 25 39.20 30.00 0.00 0.00 116.6
2 26 39.20 28.00 0.00 0.00 116.6
2 27 43.00 33.10 0.00 0.39 117.0
2 28 46.90 26.10 0.00 1.38 118.4
3 1 48.20 26.10 0.00 1.81 120.2
3 2 45.00 24.10 0.00 0.76 120.9
3 3 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 121.7
3 4 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 122.6
3 5 46.90 28.00 0.00 1.45 124.1
3 6 39.90 26.60 0.17 0.00 124.1
3 7 44.60 33.10 0.05 0.88 124.9
3 8 45.00 28.00 0.05 0.84 125.8
3 9 46.40 24.10 0.00 1.16 126.9
3 10 48.90 24.10 0.00 1.96 128.9
3 11 48.90 30.00 0.36 2.27 131.2
3 12 46.90 33.80 0.03 1.77 132.9
3 13 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 135.8
3 14 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 139.7
3 15 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 147.0
3 16 59.00 35.10 0.00 7.33 154.3
3 17 63.00 30.20 0.00 8.33 162.7
3 18 64.90 30.20 0.00 9.20 171.9
3 19 73.90 32.00 0.00 13.76 185.6
3 20 73.90 35.10 0.00 14.49 200.1
3 21 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 207.3
3 22 64.90 37.90 0.06 10.85 218.2
3 23 60.80 39.00 0.08 9.16 227.3
3 24 54.00 39.20 0.00 5.87 233.2
3 25 61.00 37.00 0.18 8.70 241.9
3 26 57.20 39.20 0.18 7.44 249.4
3 27 66.20 39.00 0.00 11.83 261.2
3 28 62.60 42.10 0.00 11.35 272.5
3 29 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 282.1
3 30 63.00 37.00 0.00 9.68 291.8
3 31 63.00 35.10 0.00 9.23 301.0
4 1 71.60 35.10 0.00 13.37 314.4
4 2 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 329.7
4 3 57.20 48.00 0.49 11.60 341.3
4 4 64.90 48.20 0.01 15.55 356.9
4 5 59.00 48.20 0.19 12.60 369.5
4 6 55.40 44.10 0.08 8.75 378.2
4 7 57.00 39.00 0.04 7.29 385.5
4 8 57.20 39.20 0.26 7.44 392.9
4 9 55.90 46.00 0.01 9.95 402.9
4 10 50.00 46.00 0.42 7.00 409.9
4 11 48.90 44.10 0.54 5.50 415.4
4 12 55.90 44.60 0.12 9.25 424.6
4 13 50.00 46.00 0.54 7.00 431.6
4 14 51.10 43.00 0.00 6.05 437.7
4 15 57.90 39.00 0.00 7.73 445.4
4 16 55.90 37.90 0.13 6.46 451.9
4 17 59.00 48.00 0.06 12.50 464.4
4 18 57.90 51.10 0.87 13.50 477.9
4 19 60.10 44.10 0.10 11.10 489.0
4 20 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 498.2
4 21 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 509.0
4 22 54.00 48.00 0.16 10.00 519.0
4 23 59.00 48.00 0.07 12.50 531.5
4 24 59.00 39.90 0.00 8.56 540.1
4 25 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 547.1
4 26 57.20 42.10 0.00 8.65 555.8
4 27 55.40 44.10 0.00 8.75 564.5
4 28 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 572.6
4 29 64.90 33.80 0.00 9.86 582.4
4 30 64.90 35.10 0.00 10.14 592.5
5 1 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 605.1
5 2 57.90 48.20 0.00 12.05 617.2
5 3 61.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 631.7
5 4 62.10 42.10 0.00 11.10 642.8
5 5 66.20 44.10 0.00 14.15 656.9
5 6 69.10 46.00 0.00 16.55 673.5
5 7 69.10 44.10 0.00 15.60 689.1
5 8 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 707.1
5 9 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 729.6
5 10 81.00 46.90 0.00 22.95 752.5
5 11 75.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 774.0
5 12 61.00 51.80 0.00 15.40 789.4
5 13 60.80 46.00 0.00 12.40 801.8
5 14 61.00 51.10 0.31 15.05 816.9
5 15 71.60 46.40 0.04 18.00 834.9
5 16 66.90 48.20 0.10 16.55 851.4 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 17 61.00 51.80 0.03 15.40 866.8
5 18 69.10 48.00 0.00 17.55 884.4
5 19 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 903.3
5 20 57.20 51.10 0.21 13.15 916.4
5 21 64.40 48.20 0.12 15.30 931.7
5 22 72.00 46.90 0.01 18.45 950.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 23 73.40 55.00 0.19 23.20 973.4
5 24 61.00 53.60 1.34 16.30 989.7
5 25 55.90 51.80 0.31 12.85 1002.5 Peak egg laying
5 26 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 1019.0
5 27 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1039.7
5 28 63.00 55.00 0.00 18.00 1057.7
5 29 66.20 52.00 0.00 18.10 1075.8
5 30 70.00 51.80 0.00 19.90 1095.7
5 31 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1115.8
6 1 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1135.6
6 2 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 1156.4
6 3 64.40 52.00 0.00 17.20 1173.6
6 4 66.20 48.00 0.00 16.10 1189.7
6 5 61.00 53.10 0.15 16.05 1205.8
6 6 64.40 48.20 0.01 15.30 1221.1
6 7 62.60 50.00 0.06 15.30 1236.4
6 8 64.40 53.10 0.01 17.75 1254.1
6 9 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 1269.4
6 10 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1290.1 Peak egg hatch
6 11 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 1315.0
6 12 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 1344.1
6 13 70.00 55.90 0.00 21.95 1366.1
6 14 66.90 53.60 0.00 19.25 1385.3
6 15 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1405.8
6 16 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 1426.6
6 17 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1446.8
6 18 68.00 54.00 0.02 20.00 1466.8
6 19 66.20 53.60 0.03 18.90 1485.7
6 20 64.90 51.80 0.09 17.35 1503.0
6 21 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1524.5
6 22 64.40 55.00 0.00 18.70 1543.2
6 23 64.40 53.60 0.02 18.00 1561.2
6 24 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1579.2
6 25 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 1597.9
6 26 72.00 53.60 0.52 21.80 1619.7
6 27 68.00 55.40 0.36 20.70 1640.4
6 28 68.00 55.90 0.10 20.95 1661.4
6 29 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 1683.6
6 30 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 1706.1
7 1 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1727.7
7 2 63.00 57.00 0.01 19.00 1746.7
7 3 64.90 59.00 0.00 20.95 1767.7
7 4 66.20 57.00 0.00 20.60 1788.3
7 5 63.00 57.00 0.01 19.00 1807.3
7 6 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 1829.9
7 7 64.90 55.40 0.00 19.15 1849.0
7 8 73.40 52.00 0.00 21.70 1870.7
7 9 73.90 51.80 0.09 21.85 1892.6
7 10 71.60 61.00 0.12 25.30 1917.9
7 11 72.00 57.00 0.08 23.50 1941.4
7 12 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1964.8
7 13 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 1990.9
7 14 73.40 57.90 0.00 24.65 2015.5
7 15 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2038.0
7 16 73.90 51.80 0.02 21.85 2059.9
7 17 66.20 59.00 0.22 21.60 2081.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 18 69.80 57.00 0.00 22.40 2103.9
7 19 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 2123.4
7 20 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 2143.9
7 21 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 2171.3
7 22 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 2197.9
7 23 71.10 59.00 0.00 24.05 2222.0
7 24 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 2245.4
7 25 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 2269.9
7 26 79.00 53.60 0.17 25.30 2295.2
7 27 73.90 60.10 0.01 26.00 2321.2
7 28 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 2345.0
7 29 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2369.3
7 30 72.00 59.00 0.00 24.50 2393.8
7 31 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2421.7
8 1 81.00 57.20 0.06 28.10 2449.8
8 2 73.40 61.00 0.05 26.20 2476.0
8 3 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 2497.9
8 4 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 2524.3
8 5 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2552.2
8 6 78.80 57.00 0.00 26.90 2579.1
8 7 69.80 57.00 0.00 22.40 2601.5
8 8 69.80 57.90 0.00 22.85 2624.3
8 9 71.60 60.10 0.05 24.85 2649.2
8 10 66.90 60.80 0.09 22.85 2672.0
8 11 70.00 60.80 0.02 24.40 2696.4
8 12 77.00 55.90 0.00 25.45 2721.9
8 13 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2748.0
8 14 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 2775.2
8 15 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2800.4
8 16 71.10 59.00 0.00 24.05 2824.4
8 17 71.60 60.10 0.00 24.85 2849.3
8 18 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2872.7
8 19 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 2894.7
8 20 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 2916.3
8 21 64.90 62.10 0.29 22.50 2938.8
8 22 71.60 54.00 0.00 21.80 2960.6
8 23 69.80 51.80 0.11 19.80 2980.4
8 24 69.80 51.10 0.04 19.45 2999.8
8 25 71.60 53.10 0.00 21.35 3021.2
8 26 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 3040.9
8 27 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3065.2
8 28 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 3090.4
8 29 73.90 53.60 0.11 22.75 3113.1
8 30 75.20 62.10 0.08 27.65 3140.8
8 31 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 3168.7
9 1 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 3194.2
9 2 75.00 55.40 0.00 24.20 3218.4
9 3 73.90 57.00 0.00 24.45 3242.9
9 4 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 3266.1
9 5 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3289.5
9 6 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 3314.7
9 7 70.00 59.00 0.28 23.50 3338.2
9 8 66.90 59.00 0.02 21.95 3360.1
9 9 64.90 60.10 0.12 21.50 3381.6
9 10 70.00 55.90 0.00 21.95 3403.6
9 11 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3423.4
9 12 72.00 55.00 0.74 22.50 3445.9
9 13 66.20 59.00 0.26 21.60 3467.5
9 14 66.90 60.10 0.50 22.50 3490.0
9 15 63.00 53.60 1.32 17.30 3507.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-16-19 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-22-19 | 950 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-25-19 | 1003 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-10-19 | 1290 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-17-19 | 2081 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3799499)
