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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 36.00 30.00 0.69 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 30.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 28.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 37.40 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 36.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 39.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 39.20 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 43.00 32.00 0.52 0.37 0.4
1 9 45.00 28.00 0.01 0.84 1.2
1 10 34.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 11 36.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 12 34.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 13 33.10 17.60 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 14 39.20 19.00 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 15 43.00 23.00 0.00 0.27 1.5
1 16 42.80 30.00 0.11 0.29 1.8
1 17 57.20 37.40 0.19 6.96 8.7
1 18 56.00 46.00 0.64 10.00 18.7
1 19 50.00 46.00 0.06 7.00 25.7
1 20 48.90 35.10 0.03 2.72 28.5
1 21 51.80 39.00 0.19 4.74 33.2
1 22 46.40 33.10 0.03 1.53 34.7
1 23 46.40 28.00 0.00 1.28 36.0
1 24 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 36.0
1 25 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 36.9
1 26 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 38.5
1 27 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 41.1
1 28 45.00 28.40 0.00 0.86 42.0
1 29 50.00 33.80 0.02 3.04 45.0
1 30 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 46.6
1 31 43.00 30.00 0.00 0.34 46.9
2 1 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 46.9
2 2 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 47.9
2 3 35.60 28.00 0.51 0.00 47.9
2 4 34.00 32.00 0.27 0.00 47.9
2 5 33.80 26.00 0.13 0.00 47.9
2 6 29.00 24.00 0.05 0.00 47.9
2 7 32.00 21.00 0.16 0.00 47.9
2 8 33.10 21.90 0.09 0.00 47.9
2 9 53.10 32.00 0.51 4.17 52.1
2 10 48.90 39.00 0.04 3.34 55.4
2 11 45.00 34.00 0.00 1.07 56.5
2 12 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 59.2
2 13 55.40 28.00 0.00 4.72 63.9
2 14 55.00 28.90 0.31 4.64 68.5
2 15 61.00 50.00 0.18 14.50 83.0
2 16 60.80 45.00 0.26 11.90 94.9
2 17 54.00 37.40 0.01 5.43 100.3
2 18 44.60 37.40 0.13 1.15 101.5
2 19 50.00 37.40 0.04 3.54 105.0
2 20 48.90 39.90 0.04 3.57 108.6
2 21 48.20 35.60 0.07 2.48 111.1
2 22 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 112.0
2 23 44.60 28.40 0.07 0.74 112.7
2 24 45.00 28.90 0.07 0.87 113.6
2 25 42.80 25.00 0.28 0.25 113.8
2 26 46.40 33.10 0.08 1.53 115.4
2 27 35.60 23.00 0.09 0.00 115.4
2 28 44.60 23.00 0.04 0.63 116.0
3 1 46.40 41.00 0.09 2.70 118.7
3 2 46.90 39.20 0.05 2.43 121.1
3 3 46.90 37.00 0.61 2.08 123.2
3 4 45.00 33.80 0.08 1.06 124.3
3 5 44.10 33.10 0.39 0.72 125.0
3 6 42.10 33.80 0.01 0.17 125.2
3 7 42.80 35.60 0.03 0.39 125.5
3 8 45.00 35.10 0.28 1.13 126.7
3 9 41.00 35.10 1.29 0.00 126.7
3 10 51.10 44.10 0.02 6.60 133.3
3 11 51.80 39.00 0.28 4.74 138.0
3 12 53.60 46.40 0.09 9.00 147.0
3 13 52.00 46.00 0.22 8.00 155.0
3 14 57.00 46.00 0.46 10.50 165.5
3 15 52.00 46.00 0.20 8.00 173.5
3 16 52.00 41.00 0.00 5.50 179.0
3 17 51.80 35.10 0.51 4.00 183.0
3 18 50.00 37.40 0.17 3.54 186.6
3 19 52.00 36.00 0.01 4.23 190.8
3 20 48.90 37.00 0.08 2.97 193.8
3 21 57.20 44.10 0.11 9.65 203.4
3 22 55.40 42.80 0.02 8.10 211.5
3 23 55.40 44.10 0.14 8.75 220.3
3 24 54.00 42.80 0.26 7.40 227.7
3 25 51.80 42.10 0.01 5.95 233.6
3 26 52.00 41.00 0.38 5.50 239.1
3 27 53.60 46.00 0.09 8.80 247.9
3 28 50.00 46.00 0.55 7.00 254.9
3 29 55.40 44.10 0.39 8.75 263.7
3 30 54.00 37.90 0.68 5.54 269.2
3 31 54.00 35.60 0.11 5.08 274.3
4 1 54.00 44.60 0.21 8.30 282.6
4 2 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 287.0
4 3 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 291.8
4 4 54.00 37.00 0.00 5.34 297.1 Hx Hn
4 5 55.90 48.00 0.21 10.95 308.1
4 6 55.40 46.00 0.13 9.70 317.8
4 7 57.90 46.00 0.16 10.95 328.7
4 8 48.90 42.10 0.19 4.50 333.2
4 9 55.90 39.20 0.82 6.80 340.0
4 10 54.00 44.60 0.01 8.30 348.3
4 11 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 356.9
4 12 62.60 46.00 0.47 13.30 370.2
4 13 55.40 44.10 0.90 8.75 379.0
4 14 55.00 44.10 0.25 8.55 387.5
4 15 57.20 39.00 0.01 7.38 394.9
4 16 66.20 37.90 0.00 11.49 406.4
4 17 60.80 46.40 0.01 12.60 419.0
4 18 61.00 46.40 0.00 12.70 431.7
4 19 57.20 44.10 0.00 9.65 441.3
4 20 60.10 48.00 0.01 13.05 454.4
4 21 66.90 46.00 0.00 15.45 469.8
4 22 61.00 46.40 0.00 12.70 482.5
4 23 57.20 48.00 0.01 11.60 494.1
4 24 57.20 46.00 0.01 10.60 504.7
4 25 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 516.4
4 26 57.90 48.20 0.01 12.05 528.5
4 27 55.90 42.80 0.01 8.35 536.8
4 28 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 547.6
4 29 55.90 48.20 0.02 11.05 558.7
4 30 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 569.5
5 1 53.60 44.60 0.01 8.10 577.6
5 2 62.60 37.00 0.00 9.48 587.1
5 3 59.00 51.80 0.04 14.40 601.5
5 4 75.90 46.40 0.02 20.15 621.6
5 5 57.90 46.00 0.04 10.95 632.6
5 6 57.90 42.80 0.00 9.35 641.9
5 7 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 651.8
5 8 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 663.7
5 9 64.00 39.20 0.00 10.81 674.5
5 10 64.90 51.80 0.00 17.35 691.9
5 11 61.00 50.00 0.10 14.50 706.4
5 12 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 717.9
5 13 57.20 44.10 0.01 9.65 727.5
5 14 59.00 48.00 0.01 12.50 740.0
5 15 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 747.2
5 16 53.60 44.60 0.04 8.10 755.3
5 17 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 766.1
5 18 64.40 48.00 0.00 15.20 781.3
5 19 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 796.1
5 20 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 814.1
5 21 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 833.0
5 22 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 855.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 23 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 874.5
5 24 61.00 45.00 0.01 12.00 886.5
5 25 66.90 42.80 0.00 13.85 900.3
5 26 75.90 46.40 0.00 20.15 920.5
5 27 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 943.9
5 28 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 969.9 Peak female adult emergence
5 29 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 991.5
5 30 55.90 53.10 0.23 13.50 1005.0 Peak egg laying
5 31 68.00 51.10 0.14 18.55 1023.5
6 1 61.00 55.40 0.58 17.20 1040.7
6 2 69.80 51.80 0.01 19.80 1060.5
6 3 61.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 1075.0
6 4 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 1090.5
6 5 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 1106.4
6 6 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 1128.9
6 7 73.90 57.00 0.05 24.45 1153.3
6 8 63.00 51.80 0.45 16.40 1169.7
6 9 64.90 50.00 0.21 16.45 1186.2
6 10 64.40 51.80 0.01 17.10 1203.3
6 11 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1222.8
6 12 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1240.8
6 13 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1257.9
6 14 64.40 51.10 0.01 16.75 1274.7 Peak egg hatch
6 15 63.00 51.80 0.31 16.40 1291.1
6 16 64.90 53.10 1.36 18.00 1309.1
6 17 63.00 50.00 0.01 15.50 1324.6
6 18 60.80 53.10 0.06 15.95 1340.5
6 19 66.00 53.60 0.01 18.80 1359.3
6 20 66.90 54.00 0.01 19.45 1378.8
6 21 66.90 48.90 0.01 16.90 1395.7
6 22 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1413.7
6 23 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 1435.2
6 24 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1462.2
6 25 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 1490.8
6 26 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 1513.4
6 27 70.00 55.40 0.00 21.70 1535.1
6 28 70.00 55.90 0.00 21.95 1557.0
6 29 75.20 55.00 0.00 24.10 1581.1
6 30 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1606.3
7 1 66.20 55.00 0.00 19.60 1625.9
7 2 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1646.6
7 3 70.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 1667.2
7 4 73.90 48.00 0.00 19.95 1687.1
7 5 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 1710.7
7 6 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 1738.7
7 7 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 1762.1
7 8 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1787.1
7 9 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 1813.2
7 10 69.80 55.90 0.00 21.85 1835.1
7 11 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1854.5
7 12 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1875.2
7 13 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1895.7
7 14 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1918.2
7 15 71.10 57.00 0.00 23.05 1941.3
7 16 71.60 52.00 0.00 20.80 1962.1
7 17 75.00 51.10 0.00 22.05 1984.1
7 18 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2007.5
7 19 71.10 59.00 0.00 24.05 2031.6
7 20 70.00 60.10 0.06 24.05 2055.6
7 21 69.80 53.60 0.01 20.70 2076.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 22 75.20 59.00 0.02 26.10 2102.4
7 23 73.40 54.00 0.00 22.70 2125.1
7 24 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 2147.6
7 25 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2174.6
7 26 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2197.1
7 27 66.20 57.00 0.00 20.60 2217.7
7 28 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 2238.3
7 29 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 2259.2
7 30 73.90 59.00 0.00 25.45 2284.6
7 31 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 2308.6
8 1 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2333.8
8 2 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 2361.5
8 3 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2389.4
8 4 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 2414.4
8 5 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2436.0
8 6 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 2460.4
8 7 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2485.6
8 8 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 2513.4
8 9 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2541.4
8 10 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2569.4
8 11 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2591.9
8 12 71.60 57.20 0.08 23.40 2615.3
8 13 70.00 57.20 0.01 22.60 2637.9
8 14 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 2658.7
8 15 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 2678.5
8 16 70.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 2698.5
8 17 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 2722.0
8 18 69.80 57.00 0.00 22.40 2744.4
8 19 73.40 57.00 0.00 24.20 2768.6
8 20 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 2789.2
8 21 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 2812.7
8 22 80.10 53.60 0.00 25.85 2838.5
8 23 72.00 60.10 0.00 25.05 2863.6
8 24 69.80 55.90 0.00 21.85 2885.4
8 25 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 2905.1
8 26 80.10 48.00 0.00 23.05 2928.2
8 27 82.00 51.80 0.00 25.90 2954.1
8 28 82.90 55.90 0.00 28.40 2982.5
8 29 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 3008.5
8 30 72.00 60.10 0.00 25.05 3033.5
8 31 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 3060.2
9 1 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 3085.0
9 2 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 3113.6
9 3 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 3142.7
9 4 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 3173.1
9 5 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 3203.4
9 6 75.20 62.60 0.00 27.90 3231.3
9 7 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 3255.6
9 8 69.10 60.10 0.00 23.60 3279.2
9 9 62.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 3297.2
9 10 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 3315.2
9 11 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 3336.7
9 12 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 3359.2
9 13 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 3376.2
9 14 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 3397.8
9 15 72.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 3413.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-22-17 | 855 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-28-17 | 970 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-30-17 | 1005 | Peak egg laying |
6-14-17 | 1275 | Peak egg hatch |
7-21-17 | 2076 | Peak in density large larvae |