Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 36.00 30.00 0.69 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 30.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 28.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.40 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 36.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 39.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 39.20 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 43.00 32.00 0.52 0.37 0.4 1 9 45.00 28.00 0.01 0.84 1.2 1 10 34.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 1.2 1 11 36.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 1.2 1 12 34.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 1.2 1 13 33.10 17.60 0.00 0.00 1.2 1 14 39.20 19.00 0.00 0.00 1.2 1 15 43.00 23.00 0.00 0.27 1.5 1 16 42.80 30.00 0.11 0.29 1.8 1 17 57.20 37.40 0.19 6.96 8.7 1 18 56.00 46.00 0.64 10.00 18.7 1 19 50.00 46.00 0.06 7.00 25.7 1 20 48.90 35.10 0.03 2.72 28.5 1 21 51.80 39.00 0.19 4.74 33.2 1 22 46.40 33.10 0.03 1.53 34.7 1 23 46.40 28.00 0.00 1.28 36.0 1 24 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 36.0 1 25 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 36.9 1 26 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 38.5 1 27 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 41.1 1 28 45.00 28.40 0.00 0.86 42.0 1 29 50.00 33.80 0.02 3.04 45.0 1 30 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 46.6 1 31 43.00 30.00 0.00 0.34 46.9 2 1 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 46.9 2 2 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 47.9 2 3 35.60 28.00 0.51 0.00 47.9 2 4 34.00 32.00 0.27 0.00 47.9 2 5 33.80 26.00 0.13 0.00 47.9 2 6 29.00 24.00 0.05 0.00 47.9 2 7 32.00 21.00 0.16 0.00 47.9 2 8 33.10 21.90 0.09 0.00 47.9 2 9 53.10 32.00 0.51 4.17 52.1 2 10 48.90 39.00 0.04 3.34 55.4 2 11 45.00 34.00 0.00 1.07 56.5 2 12 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 59.2 2 13 55.40 28.00 0.00 4.72 63.9 2 14 55.00 28.90 0.31 4.64 68.5 2 15 61.00 50.00 0.18 14.50 83.0 2 16 60.80 45.00 0.26 11.90 94.9 2 17 54.00 37.40 0.01 5.43 100.3 2 18 44.60 37.40 0.13 1.15 101.5 2 19 50.00 37.40 0.04 3.54 105.0 2 20 48.90 39.90 0.04 3.57 108.6 2 21 48.20 35.60 0.07 2.48 111.1 2 22 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 112.0 2 23 44.60 28.40 0.07 0.74 112.7 2 24 45.00 28.90 0.07 0.87 113.6 2 25 42.80 25.00 0.28 0.25 113.8 2 26 46.40 33.10 0.08 1.53 115.4 2 27 35.60 23.00 0.09 0.00 115.4 2 28 44.60 23.00 0.04 0.63 116.0 3 1 46.40 41.00 0.09 2.70 118.7 3 2 46.90 39.20 0.05 2.43 121.1 3 3 46.90 37.00 0.61 2.08 123.2 3 4 45.00 33.80 0.08 1.06 124.3 3 5 44.10 33.10 0.39 0.72 125.0 3 6 42.10 33.80 0.01 0.17 125.2 3 7 42.80 35.60 0.03 0.39 125.5 3 8 45.00 35.10 0.28 1.13 126.7 3 9 41.00 35.10 1.29 0.00 126.7 3 10 51.10 44.10 0.02 6.60 133.3 3 11 51.80 39.00 0.28 4.74 138.0 3 12 53.60 46.40 0.09 9.00 147.0 3 13 52.00 46.00 0.22 8.00 155.0 3 14 57.00 46.00 0.46 10.50 165.5 3 15 52.00 46.00 0.20 8.00 173.5 3 16 52.00 41.00 0.00 5.50 179.0 3 17 51.80 35.10 0.51 4.00 183.0 3 18 50.00 37.40 0.17 3.54 186.6 3 19 52.00 36.00 0.01 4.23 190.8 3 20 48.90 37.00 0.08 2.97 193.8 3 21 57.20 44.10 0.11 9.65 203.4 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.02 8.10 211.5 3 23 55.40 44.10 0.14 8.75 220.3 3 24 54.00 42.80 0.26 7.40 227.7 3 25 51.80 42.10 0.01 5.95 233.6 3 26 52.00 41.00 0.38 5.50 239.1 3 27 53.60 46.00 0.09 8.80 247.9 3 28 50.00 46.00 0.55 7.00 254.9 3 29 55.40 44.10 0.39 8.75 263.7 3 30 54.00 37.90 0.68 5.54 269.2 3 31 54.00 35.60 0.11 5.08 274.3 4 1 54.00 44.60 0.21 8.30 282.6 4 2 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 287.0 4 3 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 291.8 4 4 55.00 38.90 0.00 6.28 298.0 Hx Hn 4 5 55.90 48.00 0.21 10.95 309.0 4 6 55.40 46.00 0.13 9.70 318.7 4 7 57.90 46.00 0.16 10.95 329.6 4 8 48.90 42.10 0.19 4.50 334.1 4 9 55.90 39.20 0.82 6.80 340.9 4 10 54.00 44.60 0.01 8.30 349.2 4 11 60.80 37.00 0.00 8.61 357.8 4 12 62.60 46.00 0.47 13.30 371.1 4 13 55.40 44.10 0.90 8.75 379.9 4 14 55.00 44.10 0.25 8.55 388.4 4 15 57.20 39.00 0.01 7.38 395.8 4 16 66.20 37.90 0.00 11.49 407.3 4 17 60.80 46.40 0.01 12.60 419.9 4 18 61.00 46.40 0.00 12.70 432.6 4 19 57.20 44.10 0.00 9.65 442.3 4 20 60.10 48.00 0.01 13.05 455.3 4 21 66.90 46.00 0.00 15.45 470.8 4 22 61.00 46.40 0.00 12.70 483.5 4 23 57.20 48.00 0.01 11.60 495.1 4 24 57.20 46.00 0.01 10.60 505.7 4 25 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 517.4 4 26 57.90 48.20 0.01 12.05 529.4 4 27 55.90 42.80 0.01 8.35 537.8 4 28 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 548.6 4 29 55.90 48.20 0.02 11.05 559.6 4 30 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 570.4 5 1 53.60 44.60 0.01 8.10 578.5 5 2 62.60 37.00 0.00 9.48 588.0 5 3 59.00 51.80 0.04 14.40 602.4 5 4 75.90 46.40 0.02 20.15 622.6 5 5 57.90 46.00 0.04 10.95 633.5 5 6 57.90 42.80 0.00 9.35 642.9 5 7 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 652.8 5 8 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 664.7 5 9 64.00 39.20 0.00 10.81 675.5 5 10 64.90 51.80 0.00 17.35 692.8 5 11 61.00 50.00 0.10 14.50 707.3 5 12 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 718.8 5 13 57.20 44.10 0.01 9.65 728.5 5 14 59.00 48.00 0.01 12.50 741.0 5 15 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 748.2 5 16 53.60 44.60 0.04 8.10 756.3 5 17 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 767.1 5 18 64.40 48.00 0.00 15.20 782.3 5 19 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 797.0 5 20 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 815.0 5 21 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 833.9 5 22 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 856.4 peak pheromone trap catch 5 23 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 875.4 5 24 61.00 45.00 0.01 12.00 887.4 5 25 66.90 42.80 0.00 13.85 901.3 5 26 75.90 46.40 0.00 20.15 921.4 5 27 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 944.8 5 28 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 970.8 peak female adult emergence 5 29 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 992.4 5 30 55.90 53.10 0.23 13.50 1005.9 peak egg laying 5 31 68.00 51.10 0.14 18.55 1024.5 6 1 61.00 55.40 0.58 17.20 1041.7 6 2 69.80 51.80 0.01 19.80 1061.5 6 3 61.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 1076.0 6 4 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 1091.5 6 5 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 1107.3 6 6 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 1129.8 6 7 73.90 57.00 0.05 24.45 1154.3 6 8 63.00 51.80 0.45 16.40 1170.7 6 9 64.90 50.00 0.21 16.45 1187.1 6 10 64.40 51.80 0.01 17.10 1204.2 6 11 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1223.8 6 12 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1241.8 6 13 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1258.9 6 14 64.40 51.10 0.01 16.75 1275.6 peak egg hatch 6 15 63.00 51.80 0.31 16.40 1292.0 6 16 64.90 53.10 1.36 18.00 1310.0 6 17 63.00 50.00 0.01 15.50 1325.5 6 18 60.80 53.10 0.06 15.95 1341.5 6 19 66.00 53.60 0.01 18.80 1360.3 6 20 66.90 54.00 0.01 19.45 1379.7 6 21 66.90 48.90 0.01 16.90 1396.6 6 22 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1414.6 6 23 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 1436.1 6 24 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1463.1 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KBLI data
  6 25  85.50 68.20  0.00  35.85   1499.0  0.00_26.85%_precip.    
  6 26  71.40 61.00  0.00  25.20   1524.2  0.00_16.20%_precip.    
  6 27  68.00 56.70  0.01  21.35   1545.5  0.014_12.35%_precip.    
  6 28  63.70 56.60  0.01  19.15   1564.7  0.006_10.15%_precip.    
  6 29  67.20 56.20  0.00  20.70   1585.4  0.001_11.70%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBLI 2006-2015
  6 30  72.10 54.30  0.04  22.20   1607.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  72.40 52.80  0.01  21.60   1629.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  72.50 52.60  0.00  21.55   1650.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  73.30 53.40  0.05  22.35   1673.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  70.20 53.90  0.08  21.05   1694.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  71.30 52.80  0.00  21.05   1715.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  73.00 53.40  0.00  22.20   1737.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  71.00 53.20  0.01  21.10   1758.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  72.40 54.30  0.02  22.35   1780.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  74.40 54.10  0.01  23.25   1804.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  74.40 54.30  0.00  23.35   1827.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  72.00 53.70  0.00  21.85   1849.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  74.50 53.30  0.00  22.90   1872.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  71.00 55.20  0.04  22.10   1894.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  70.60 55.10  0.02  21.85   1916.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  72.20 54.60  0.02  22.40   1938.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  73.00 55.00  0.01  23.00   1961.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  75.30 54.70  0.02  24.00   1985.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  71.60 55.60  0.01  22.60   2008.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  70.80 55.40  0.04  22.10   2030.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  72.00 55.40  0.01  22.70   2052.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  70.70 55.10  0.06  21.90   2074.8  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 22  73.30 56.40  0.03  23.85   2098.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  70.00 55.90  0.05  21.95   2120.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  70.50 54.80  0.10  21.65   2142.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  73.50 54.70  0.06  23.10   2165.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  71.90 54.50  0.02  22.20   2187.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  72.20 55.60  0.00  22.90   2210.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  73.60 55.10  0.00  23.35   2233.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  73.70 54.90  0.00  23.30   2257.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  73.90 55.80  0.01  23.85   2281.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  73.20 54.40  0.01  22.80   2303.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  71.70 52.80  0.03  21.25   2325.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  72.80 53.70  0.01  22.25   2347.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  72.90 54.90  0.01  22.90   2370.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  74.40 54.60  0.00  23.50   2393.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  76.00 55.40  0.01  24.70   2418.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  73.80 55.50  0.01  23.65   2442.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  72.10 55.20  0.00  22.65   2464.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  69.60 55.70  0.03  21.65   2486.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  68.90 55.20  0.00  21.05   2507.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  70.20 54.20  0.06  21.20   2528.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  70.90 54.00  0.08  21.45   2550.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  73.10 52.60  0.02  21.85   2571.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  74.00 53.70  0.04  22.85   2594.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  73.90 54.30  0.02  23.10   2617.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  74.00 54.80  0.04  23.40   2641.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  75.50 55.00  0.00  24.25   2665.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  75.70 54.30  0.00  24.00   2689.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  75.30 54.50  0.00  23.90   2713.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  72.10 54.60  0.01  22.35   2735.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  72.50 55.40  0.03  22.95   2758.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  71.30 54.30  0.04  21.80   2780.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  70.40 53.20  0.01  20.80   2801.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  70.90 52.90  0.04  20.90   2822.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  72.40 52.70  0.01  21.55   2843.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  71.10 51.70  0.06  20.40   2864.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  72.90 51.40  0.01  21.15   2885.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  72.70 52.30  0.04  21.50   2906.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  73.30 52.80  0.05  22.05   2928.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  71.80 53.90  0.06  21.85   2950.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  69.60 55.00  0.09  21.30   2972.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  69.10 52.60  0.02  19.85   2991.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  66.80 52.10  0.15  18.45   3010.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  68.30 50.00  0.04  18.15   3028.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  69.90 50.30  0.14  19.10   3047.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  70.10 49.60  0.05  18.85   3066.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  70.00 50.30  0.01  19.15   3085.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  68.70 50.90  0.07  18.80   3104.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  70.10 51.50  0.13  19.80   3124.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  71.10 50.40  0.02  19.75   3143.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  70.70 51.20  0.01  19.95   3163.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  69.20 51.10  0.02  19.15   3183.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  70.90 49.60  0.00  19.25   3202.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  73.70 48.40  0.03  20.05   3222.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  69.60 50.20  0.08  18.90   3241.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  68.80 49.90  0.02  18.35   3259.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  67.10 49.80  0.00  17.45   3277.0  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 24 days behind 2016 ok
 19 days behind 2015 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-22-17 856peak pheromone trap catch
 5-28-17 971peak female adult emergence
 5-30-17 1006peak egg laying
 6-14-17 1276peak egg hatch
 7-21-17 2075peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)