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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 58.60 47.10 0.00 11.85 11.9 * START *
1 2 45.90 35.70 0.00 1.52 13.4 Pn
1 3 56.60 37.90 0.00 6.79 20.2
1 4 56.00 41.30 0.00 7.65 27.8
1 5 49.60 36.20 0.00 3.17 31.0
1 6 57.50 39.20 0.00 7.59 38.6
1 7 56.00 45.60 0.00 9.80 48.4
1 8 49.40 32.70 0.00 2.68 51.1
1 9 44.30 22.10 0.00 0.55 51.6
1 10 45.20 19.60 0.00 0.73 52.3
1 11 53.60 42.10 0.00 6.85 59.2
1 12 47.40 33.80 0.00 1.97 61.2
1 13 35.50 17.40 0.00 0.00 61.2
1 14 21.90 9.50 0.00 0.00 61.2
1 15 25.90 8.30 0.00 0.00 61.2
1 16 31.20 15.10 0.00 0.00 61.2
1 17 34.90 11.10 0.00 0.00 61.2
1 18 34.50 26.80 0.00 0.00 61.2
1 19 44.50 26.40 0.00 0.67 61.8
1 20 39.80 27.60 0.00 0.00 61.8
1 21 48.00 23.10 0.00 1.62 63.5
1 22 45.70 38.90 0.00 1.81 65.3
1 23 41.50 35.80 0.00 0.06 65.3
1 24 57.60 39.90 0.00 7.87 73.2 Pn
1 25 52.30 36.20 0.00 4.40 77.6
1 26 55.00 38.30 0.00 6.12 83.7
1 27 52.10 38.40 0.00 4.74 88.5
1 28 51.00 30.10 0.00 3.10 91.6
1 29 48.40 28.50 0.00 2.00 93.6
1 30 37.20 27.70 0.00 0.00 93.6
1 31 66.10 34.20 0.00 10.51 104.1
2 1 63.10 40.20 0.00 10.71 114.8
2 2 45.40 21.20 0.00 0.81 115.6
2 3 43.90 16.80 0.00 0.41 116.0
2 4 37.00 22.80 0.00 0.00 116.0
2 5 41.40 33.80 0.00 0.04 116.0
2 6 50.50 36.20 0.00 3.57 119.6
2 7 52.40 37.70 0.00 4.73 124.3
2 8 54.80 42.00 0.00 7.40 131.7
2 9 49.30 26.10 0.00 2.19 133.9
2 10 51.70 22.90 0.00 2.89 136.8
2 11 60.20 30.70 0.00 7.14 144.0
2 12 54.70 25.10 0.00 4.17 148.1
2 13 46.90 22.20 0.00 1.26 149.4
2 14 55.20 37.90 0.00 6.12 155.5
2 15 48.30 37.60 0.00 2.79 158.3
2 16 54.10 34.60 0.00 4.96 163.3
2 17 51.70 32.70 0.00 3.65 166.9
2 18 47.80 16.90 0.00 1.39 168.3
2 19 48.40 16.30 0.00 1.55 169.8
2 20 47.10 17.10 0.00 1.19 171.0
2 21 49.70 16.50 0.00 1.94 173.0
2 22 58.70 17.40 0.00 5.17 178.1
2 23 56.30 33.00 0.00 5.72 183.9
2 24 52.00 31.60 0.00 3.66 187.5
2 25 51.70 22.50 0.00 2.86 190.4
2 26 60.20 37.50 0.00 8.44 198.8 Pn
2 27 63.30 24.00 0.00 7.64 206.5
2 28 64.70 25.80 0.00 8.46 214.9
2 29 57.60 34.30 0.00 6.52 221.4
3 1 52.80 19.50 0.00 3.10 224.5
3 2 59.70 38.90 0.00 8.59 233.1 Pn
3 3 65.00 48.30 0.00 15.65 248.8
3 4 57.40 32.30 0.00 6.11 254.9
3 5 57.30 28.70 0.00 5.60 260.5
3 6 61.40 40.50 0.00 9.98 270.5
3 7 52.60 30.80 0.00 3.83 274.3
3 8 52.70 25.00 0.00 3.39 277.7
3 9 53.00 21.50 0.00 3.28 281.0
3 10 62.90 23.20 0.00 7.38 288.3
3 11 61.40 36.40 0.00 8.75 297.1
3 12 54.00 24.60 0.00 3.86 301.0
3 13 43.20 29.30 0.00 0.38 301.3
3 14 33.50 25.90 0.00 0.00 301.3
3 15 42.70 29.20 0.00 0.26 301.6
3 16 54.10 26.70 0.00 4.06 305.7
3 17 54.70 19.60 0.00 3.80 309.5
3 18 61.00 22.30 0.00 6.49 315.9
3 19 62.40 23.20 0.00 7.16 323.1
3 20 66.70 26.90 0.00 9.51 332.6
3 21 64.80 35.20 0.00 10.11 342.7
3 22 64.40 28.90 0.00 8.76 351.5
3 23 60.30 41.00 0.00 9.65 361.1
3 24 57.30 37.10 0.00 6.94 368.1
3 25 50.50 34.80 0.00 3.38 371.5
3 26 57.80 33.50 0.00 6.48 377.9
3 27 57.50 41.80 0.00 8.65 386.6
3 28 62.40 37.40 0.00 9.49 396.1
3 29 63.90 45.80 0.00 13.85 409.9
3 30 57.00 43.20 0.00 9.10 419.0
3 31 56.60 40.10 0.00 7.44 426.5
4 1 52.60 30.10 0.00 3.76 430.2
4 2 54.50 21.10 0.00 3.81 434.0
4 3 57.20 26.50 0.00 5.32 439.4
4 4 54.70 21.70 0.00 3.93 443.3
4 5 58.30 36.70 0.00 7.33 450.6
4 6 68.40 34.10 0.00 11.59 462.2 Px Pn
4 7 73.60 35.20 0.00 14.37 476.6 Px Pn
4 8 70.90 28.20 0.00 11.62 488.2
4 9 75.40 28.00 0.00 13.68 501.9
4 10 80.40 33.00 0.00 17.12 519.0
4 11 64.00 42.40 0.00 12.20 531.2
4 12 59.20 33.80 0.00 7.18 538.4
4 13 63.60 27.70 0.00 8.23 546.6
4 14 74.30 42.50 0.00 17.40 564.0
4 15 66.60 44.60 0.00 14.60 578.6
4 16 64.10 32.50 0.00 9.23 587.8
4 17 77.10 32.30 0.00 15.36 603.2
4 18 72.40 45.70 0.00 18.05 621.2
4 19 72.70 45.10 0.00 17.90 639.1
4 20 77.20 35.90 0.00 16.32 655.5
4 21 75.30 37.50 0.00 15.86 671.3
4 22 67.60 39.60 0.00 12.73 684.0
4 23 71.90 46.60 0.00 18.25 702.3
4 24 70.40 39.80 0.00 14.20 716.5
4 25 75.00 46.10 0.00 19.55 736.1
4 26 75.30 34.20 0.00 14.94 751.0
4 27 76.50 51.90 0.00 23.20 774.2
4 28 75.30 36.00 0.00 15.42 789.6
4 29 82.30 48.00 0.00 24.15 813.8
4 30 72.40 44.50 0.00 17.45 831.2
5 1 72.80 34.70 0.00 13.86 845.1
5 2 79.10 47.90 0.00 22.50 867.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 3 65.90 43.70 0.00 13.80 881.4
5 4 71.40 34.90 0.00 13.23 894.6 Pn
5 5 80.90 38.70 0.00 19.03 913.6
5 6 70.20 48.50 0.00 18.35 932.0
5 7 69.30 35.40 0.00 12.33 944.3
5 8 77.40 41.60 0.00 18.50 962.8 Peak female adult emergence
5 9 83.80 45.90 0.00 23.85 986.7
5 10 83.90 54.90 0.00 28.40 1015.1 Peak egg laying
5 11 78.50 57.60 0.00 27.05 1042.1
5 12 72.10 55.60 0.00 22.85 1065.0
5 13 73.00 53.50 0.00 22.25 1087.2
5 14 69.50 52.80 0.00 20.15 1107.4
5 15 73.50 51.10 0.00 21.30 1128.7
5 16 74.20 44.80 0.00 18.50 1147.2
5 17 65.90 51.60 0.00 17.75 1164.9
5 18 71.20 47.20 0.00 18.20 1183.1
5 19 68.30 53.70 0.00 20.00 1203.1
5 20 72.80 57.40 0.00 24.10 1227.2
5 21 68.70 49.60 0.00 18.15 1245.4
5 22 67.30 44.90 0.00 15.10 1260.5
5 23 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 1277.5 Peak egg hatch
5 24 78.70 46.00 0.00 21.35 1298.9
5 25 71.80 49.90 0.00 19.85 1318.7
5 26 83.60 53.50 0.00 27.55 1346.3
5 27 83.00 44.20 0.00 22.60 1368.9
5 28 89.20 49.90 0.00 28.55 1397.4
5 29 94.30 52.10 0.00 32.20 1429.6
5 30 88.50 56.80 0.00 31.65 1461.3
5 31 77.40 55.10 0.00 25.25 1486.5 Pn
6 1 81.20 53.70 0.00 26.45 1513.0 Pn
6 2 84.50 43.40 0.00 22.95 1535.9
6 3 81.10 48.00 0.00 23.55 1559.5
6 4 80.00 52.10 0.00 25.05 1584.5
6 5 75.70 60.90 0.00 27.30 1611.8
6 6 74.90 47.90 0.00 20.40 1632.2
6 7 73.30 49.00 0.00 20.15 1652.4
6 8 73.70 51.50 0.00 21.60 1674.0
6 9 74.90 52.60 0.00 22.75 1696.7
6 10 86.10 53.80 0.00 28.95 1725.7
6 11 85.40 60.60 0.00 32.00 1757.7
6 12 85.70 58.90 0.00 31.30 1789.0
6 13 72.30 53.50 0.00 21.90 1810.9
6 14 73.60 46.80 0.00 19.20 1830.1
6 15 70.50 53.90 0.00 21.20 1851.3
6 16 72.40 48.40 0.00 19.40 1870.7
6 17 83.20 48.10 0.00 24.65 1895.3
6 18 86.30 49.60 0.00 26.95 1922.3
6 19 91.50 51.90 0.00 30.70 1953.0
6 20 86.10 67.40 0.00 35.75 1988.7
6 21 86.40 53.70 0.00 29.05 2017.8
6 22 89.40 52.90 0.00 30.15 2047.9
6 23 98.50 57.50 0.00 37.00 2084.9 Peak in density large larvae
6 24 97.10 68.20 0.00 41.65 2126.6
6 25 93.30 61.60 0.00 36.45 2163.0
6 26 101.70 62.00 0.00 40.85 2203.9
6 27 85.60 62.40 0.00 33.00 2236.9
6 28 70.70 50.40 0.00 19.55 2256.4
6 29 87.30 54.90 0.00 30.10 2286.5
6 30 82.60 60.50 0.00 30.55 2317.1
7 1 78.50 54.80 0.00 25.65 2342.7
7 2 82.70 56.40 0.00 28.55 2371.3
7 3 88.60 48.40 0.00 27.50 2398.8
7 4 85.20 51.80 0.00 27.50 2426.3
7 5 87.80 54.50 0.00 30.15 2456.4
7 6 89.60 58.00 0.00 32.80 2489.2
7 7 82.10 53.20 0.00 26.65 2515.9
7 8 83.10 55.60 0.00 28.35 2544.2
7 9 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 2573.2
7 10 88.50 58.30 0.00 32.40 2605.6
7 11 96.80 53.40 0.00 34.10 2639.7
7 12 86.50 55.70 0.00 30.10 2669.8
7 13 82.00 56.60 0.00 28.30 2698.1
7 14 89.90 50.80 0.00 29.35 2727.5
7 15 95.30 56.40 0.00 34.85 2762.3
7 16 99.70 65.90 0.00 41.80 2804.1
7 17 91.20 63.60 0.00 36.40 2840.5
7 18 92.00 56.00 0.00 33.00 2873.5
7 19 97.80 60.60 0.00 38.20 2911.7
7 20 99.30 64.80 0.00 41.05 2952.8
7 21 103.40 65.40 0.00 43.40 2996.2
7 22 99.50 64.50 0.00 41.00 3037.2
7 23 93.50 62.70 0.00 37.10 3074.3
7 24 88.80 53.50 0.00 30.15 3104.4
7 25 87.50 57.70 0.00 31.60 3136.0 Pn
7 26 96.60 59.20 0.00 36.90 3172.9 Pn
7 27 99.40 58.50 0.00 37.95 3210.9
7 28 104.90 74.60 0.00 48.75 3259.6
7 29 103.60 62.60 0.00 42.10 3301.7
7 30 110.50 71.80 0.00 50.15 3351.9
7 31 107.70 79.20 0.00 52.45 3404.3
8 1 91.70 67.00 0.00 38.35 3442.7
8 2 97.20 61.20 0.00 38.20 3480.9
8 3 93.10 60.30 0.00 35.70 3516.6
8 4 94.00 58.70 0.00 35.35 3551.9
8 5 98.30 58.00 0.00 37.15 3589.1
8 6 86.90 61.60 0.00 33.25 3622.3
8 7 83.10 48.70 0.00 24.90 3647.2
8 8 88.60 59.50 0.00 33.05 3680.3
8 9 88.10 56.10 0.00 31.10 3711.4
8 10 96.80 56.70 0.00 35.75 3747.1
8 11 94.30 60.00 0.00 36.15 3783.3
8 12 82.70 59.00 0.00 29.85 3813.1
8 13 82.70 51.50 0.00 26.10 3839.2
8 14 90.30 50.80 0.00 29.55 3868.8
8 15 98.20 52.30 0.00 34.25 3903.0
8 16 103.30 59.60 0.00 40.45 3943.5
8 17 104.00 70.90 0.00 46.45 3989.9
8 18 103.90 74.40 0.00 48.15 4038.1
8 19 98.90 70.10 0.00 43.50 4081.6 Pn
8 20 92.80 73.30 0.00 42.05 4123.6 Pn
8 21 93.10 64.30 0.00 37.70 4161.3
8 22 85.30 56.20 0.00 29.75 4191.1
8 23 90.10 51.10 0.00 29.60 4220.7
8 24 91.40 53.70 0.00 31.55 4252.2
8 25 88.80 53.70 0.00 30.25 4282.5
8 26 87.80 51.30 0.00 28.55 4311.0
8 27 90.10 54.70 0.00 31.40 4342.4
8 28 91.20 49.10 0.00 29.15 4371.6
8 29 90.90 51.10 0.00 30.00 4401.6
8 30 81.80 53.60 0.00 26.70 4428.3
8 31 83.20 64.30 0.00 32.75 4461.0
9 1 92.70 57.70 0.00 34.20 4495.2
9 2 96.70 59.80 0.00 37.25 4532.5
9 3 92.60 58.40 0.00 34.50 4567.0
9 4 98.70 54.30 0.00 35.50 4602.5
9 5 96.20 60.90 0.00 37.55 4640.0
9 6 96.80 53.50 0.00 34.15 4674.2
9 7 82.20 53.70 0.00 26.95 4701.1
9 8 76.20 46.00 0.00 20.10 4721.2
9 9 85.30 41.90 0.00 22.60 4743.8
9 10 89.40 46.90 0.00 27.15 4771.0
9 11 90.00 46.10 0.00 27.05 4798.0
9 12 79.10 50.70 0.00 23.90 4821.9
9 13 70.60 48.20 0.00 18.40 4840.3
9 14 70.70 54.50 0.00 21.60 4861.9 Pn
9 15 78.20 48.20 0.00 22.20 4884.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-20 | 868 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-8-20 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-10-20 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-23-20 | 1278 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-23-20 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3422199)
