Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 31.70 16.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 30.70 28.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 35.30 20.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 32.10 20.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 35.40 29.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 36.40 27.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 35.10 29.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 37.90 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 42.50 35.50 0.00 0.30 0.3 1 10 49.20 36.90 0.00 3.09 3.4 1 11 43.20 31.30 0.00 0.41 3.8 1 12 40.80 28.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 1 13 49.30 34.20 0.00 2.79 6.6 1 14 47.20 29.20 0.00 1.60 8.2 1 15 42.70 28.20 0.00 0.25 8.4 1 16 51.50 29.00 0.00 3.21 11.7 1 17 43.80 31.70 0.00 0.59 12.2 1 18 50.50 39.60 0.00 4.27 16.5 1 19 50.10 34.10 0.00 3.12 19.6 1 20 50.70 36.20 0.00 3.67 23.3 1 21 45.70 29.10 0.00 1.09 24.4 1 22 51.90 27.60 0.00 3.26 27.7 1 23 38.40 26.80 0.00 0.00 27.7 1 24 48.70 34.90 0.00 2.61 30.3 1 25 48.30 31.50 0.00 2.15 32.4 1 26 48.20 35.90 0.00 2.51 34.9 1 27 55.80 38.90 0.00 6.67 41.6 1 28 46.00 38.70 0.00 1.92 43.5 1 29 52.20 38.10 0.00 4.72 48.2 1 30 54.00 29.70 0.00 4.30 52.5 1 31 47.80 25.30 0.00 1.64 54.2 2 1 47.80 24.60 0.00 1.61 55.8 2 2 56.60 36.40 0.00 6.45 62.2 2 3 62.80 41.80 0.00 11.30 73.5 2 4 65.80 45.70 0.00 14.75 88.3 2 5 61.00 35.60 0.00 8.38 96.7 2 6 56.80 26.20 0.00 5.12 101.8 2 7 55.00 39.20 0.00 6.36 108.2 2 8 68.30 42.90 0.00 14.60 122.8 2 9 49.90 36.00 0.00 3.27 126.0 2 10 45.80 22.30 0.00 0.94 127.0 2 11 42.50 25.90 0.00 0.19 127.2 2 12 39.40 22.90 0.00 0.00 127.2 2 13 44.40 14.30 0.00 0.49 127.7 2 14 46.20 26.80 0.00 1.18 128.8 2 15 48.30 26.90 0.00 1.88 130.7 2 16 57.60 32.70 0.00 6.26 137.0 2 17 61.10 30.50 0.00 7.51 144.5 2 18 46.00 23.80 0.00 1.03 145.5 2 19 32.50 14.10 0.00 0.00 145.5 2 20 32.80 8.90 0.00 0.00 145.5 2 21 32.40 14.80 0.00 0.00 145.5 2 22 35.50 16.60 0.00 0.00 145.5 2 23 34.40 8.50 0.00 0.00 145.5 2 24 43.90 29.30 0.00 0.56 146.1 2 25 53.10 34.80 0.00 4.54 150.6 2 26 47.90 29.90 0.00 1.89 152.5 Pn 2 27 51.30 19.50 0.00 2.58 155.1 2 28 52.10 27.20 0.00 3.31 158.4 3 1 50.60 29.50 0.00 2.90 161.3 3 2 51.10 28.90 0.00 3.05 164.3 3 3 48.70 18.60 0.00 1.70 166.0 3 4 52.20 17.60 0.00 2.80 168.8 3 5 52.80 28.80 0.00 3.72 172.6 3 6 50.90 17.90 0.00 2.38 174.9 3 7 50.60 18.90 0.00 2.32 177.3 3 8 56.70 29.30 0.00 5.41 182.7 3 9 55.20 33.20 0.00 5.25 187.9 3 10 57.90 19.00 0.00 4.97 192.9 3 11 60.50 34.90 0.00 8.00 200.9 3 12 64.50 27.50 0.00 8.60 209.5 3 13 60.10 41.40 0.00 9.75 219.2 3 14 59.40 39.50 0.00 8.63 227.9 3 15 56.90 29.60 0.00 5.53 233.4 3 16 56.80 31.10 0.00 5.67 239.1 3 17 57.80 31.40 0.00 6.16 245.2 3 18 59.90 38.80 0.00 8.65 253.9 3 19 59.60 25.30 0.00 6.20 260.1 3 20 61.40 22.00 0.00 6.62 266.7 3 21 54.60 31.50 0.00 4.76 271.5 3 22 58.30 35.70 0.00 7.12 278.6 3 23 53.50 25.90 0.00 3.76 282.3 3 24 53.60 33.50 0.00 4.58 286.9 3 25 56.90 28.90 0.00 5.45 292.4 3 26 52.80 28.90 0.00 3.73 296.1 3 27 66.30 43.40 0.00 13.85 309.9 3 28 64.20 28.50 0.00 8.61 318.6 3 29 66.00 34.70 0.00 10.58 329.1 3 30 66.40 36.40 0.00 11.18 340.3 3 31 58.70 30.70 0.00 6.46 346.8 4 1 61.10 30.90 0.00 7.57 354.3 4 2 55.70 30.30 0.00 5.09 359.4 4 3 52.40 25.20 0.00 3.29 362.7 4 4 56.00 42.30 0.00 8.15 370.9 4 5 53.00 45.00 0.00 8.00 378.9 4 6 62.90 47.80 0.00 14.35 393.2 4 7 65.70 44.80 0.00 14.25 407.5 4 8 63.00 41.20 0.00 11.10 418.6 4 9 63.70 34.50 0.00 9.43 428.0 4 10 69.30 44.90 0.00 16.10 444.1 4 11 60.80 45.70 0.00 12.25 456.4 4 12 59.50 42.60 0.00 10.05 466.4 4 13 59.30 39.90 0.00 8.71 475.1 4 14 66.80 48.70 0.00 16.75 491.9 4 15 62.50 47.90 0.00 14.20 506.1 4 16 58.40 43.10 0.00 9.75 515.8 4 17 61.30 41.70 0.00 10.50 526.3 4 18 62.60 33.00 0.00 8.62 534.9 4 19 68.10 42.20 0.00 14.15 549.1 4 20 71.30 40.30 0.00 14.84 563.9 4 21 66.00 43.40 0.00 13.70 577.6 4 22 64.10 31.70 0.00 9.08 586.7 4 23 68.60 32.90 0.00 11.43 598.1 4 24 75.30 33.50 0.00 14.77 612.9 4 25 79.70 38.20 0.00 18.26 631.2 4 26 82.30 35.90 0.00 18.83 650.0 4 27 85.60 41.80 0.00 22.70 672.7 4 28 68.20 46.40 0.00 16.30 689.0 4 29 69.50 40.50 0.00 14.03 703.0 4 30 68.40 38.90 0.00 12.89 715.9 5 1 71.80 43.40 0.00 16.60 732.5 5 2 77.70 39.40 0.00 17.69 750.2 5 3 82.90 41.30 0.00 21.10 771.3 5 4 83.60 57.30 0.00 29.45 800.8 5 5 78.70 56.30 0.00 26.50 827.3 5 6 76.70 58.00 0.00 26.35 853.6 peak pheromone trap catch 5 7 81.30 56.90 0.00 28.10 881.7 5 8 85.30 48.60 0.00 25.95 907.7 5 9 77.20 54.10 0.00 24.65 932.3 5 10 66.60 45.90 0.00 15.25 947.6 5 11 69.80 48.50 0.00 18.15 965.7 peak female adult emergence 5 12 83.20 42.80 0.00 22.00 987.7 5 13 87.00 49.00 0.00 27.00 1014.7 peak egg laying 5 14 90.60 48.50 0.00 28.55 1043.3 5 15 92.20 49.70 0.00 29.95 1073.2 5 16 81.40 62.70 0.00 31.05 1104.3 5 17 82.10 53.20 0.00 26.65 1130.9 5 18 73.00 55.30 0.00 23.15 1154.1 5 19 79.60 51.10 0.00 24.35 1178.4 5 20 79.80 53.50 0.00 25.65 1204.1 5 21 84.40 49.40 0.00 25.90 1230.0 5 22 90.20 51.60 0.00 29.90 1259.9 5 23 90.20 61.10 0.00 34.65 1294.5 peak egg hatch 5 24 90.80 62.30 0.00 35.55 1330.1 Pn 5 25 82.00 54.30 0.00 27.15 1357.2 5 26 81.00 54.20 0.00 26.60 1383.8 5 27 84.10 45.10 0.00 23.60 1407.4 5 28 90.80 49.70 0.00 29.25 1436.7 5 29 79.90 44.70 0.00 21.30 1458.0 5 30 72.70 41.00 0.00 15.85 1473.8 5 31 71.70 43.00 0.00 16.35 1490.2 6 1 77.60 49.10 0.00 22.35 1512.5 6 2 84.20 44.70 0.00 23.45 1536.0 6 3 89.70 48.70 0.00 28.20 1564.2 6 4 77.40 54.00 0.00 24.70 1588.9 6 5 80.50 47.80 0.00 23.15 1612.0 6 6 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 1635.5 6 7 87.50 47.50 0.00 26.50 1662.0 6 8 85.80 51.00 0.00 27.40 1689.4 6 9 67.50 51.60 0.00 18.55 1708.0 6 10 69.00 48.90 0.00 17.95 1725.9 6 11 76.10 37.00 0.00 16.10 1742.0 6 12 79.00 42.40 0.00 19.70 1761.7 6 13 82.00 51.00 0.00 25.50 1787.2 6 14 77.60 47.40 0.00 21.50 1808.7 6 15 81.10 47.50 0.00 23.30 1832.0 6 16 77.30 57.00 0.00 26.15 1858.2 6 17 84.70 53.40 0.00 28.05 1886.2 6 18 79.10 60.30 0.00 28.70 1914.9 6 19 86.50 59.90 0.00 32.20 1947.1 6 20 92.50 57.20 0.00 33.85 1981.0 6 21 93.40 70.90 0.00 41.15 2022.1 6 22 89.80 54.70 0.00 31.25 2053.4 6 23 87.10 58.80 0.00 31.95 2085.3 peak in density large larvae 6 24 92.90 55.60 0.00 33.25 2118.6 6 25 81.50 59.60 0.00 29.55 2148.1 6 26 82.30 46.40 0.00 23.35 2171.5 Px 6 27 88.10 52.00 0.00 29.05 2200.5 Px Pn 6 28 83.60 61.60 0.00 31.60 2232.1 Px Pn 6 29 84.30 56.50 0.00 29.40 2261.5 Pn 6 30 87.30 55.70 0.00 30.50 2292.0 7 1 86.80 55.70 0.00 30.25 2322.3 7 2 77.40 53.20 0.00 24.30 2346.6 7 3 80.50 50.90 0.00 24.70 2371.3 7 4 89.20 51.10 0.00 29.15 2400.4 7 5 98.60 70.60 0.00 43.60 2444.0 7 6 93.60 65.30 0.00 38.45 2482.5 7 7 88.10 56.20 0.00 31.15 2513.6 7 8 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 2544.8 7 9 98.90 58.90 0.00 37.90 2582.7 7 10 85.50 61.40 0.00 32.45 2615.1 7 11 90.40 56.30 0.00 32.35 2647.5 7 12 96.40 58.80 0.00 36.60 2684.1 7 13 106.40 60.70 0.00 42.55 2726.6 7 14 94.90 68.20 0.00 40.55 2767.2
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2767QA 97% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 5 days ahead 2017 ok
 7 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for HPROS data
  7 15 102.60 67.00  0.00  43.80   2811.0  0.00_34.80%_precip.    
  7 16 105.10 70.20  0.00  46.65   2857.6  0.00_37.65%_precip.    
  7 17 105.30 69.10  0.00  46.20   2903.8  0.00_37.20%_precip.    
  7 18 100.30 62.90  0.00  40.60   2944.4  0.00_31.60%_precip.    
  7 19  93.60 57.30  0.00  34.45   2978.9  0.00_25.45%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg HPROS 2006-2015
  7 20  91.10 60.40  0.00  34.75   3013.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  91.10 59.90  0.00  34.50   3048.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  92.10 60.40  0.00  35.25   3083.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  91.80 61.10  0.00  35.45   3118.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  91.00 59.70  0.00  34.35   3153.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  91.70 59.40  0.00  34.55   3187.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  92.10 59.30  0.00  34.70   3222.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  93.10 61.30  0.00  36.20   3258.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  92.30 61.40  0.00  35.85   3294.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  91.60 60.20  0.00  34.90   3329.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  92.10 60.60  0.00  35.35   3364.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  92.20 60.10  0.00  35.15   3399.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  92.40 58.80  0.01  34.60   3434.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  92.30 60.50  0.00  35.40   3469.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  91.10 60.90  0.01  35.00   3504.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  91.20 60.40  0.00  34.80   3539.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  93.70 60.40  0.00  36.05   3575.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  94.00 60.70  0.00  36.35   3612.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  92.80 61.20  0.00  36.00   3648.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  92.10 60.90  0.00  35.50   3683.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  90.60 60.50  0.00  34.55   3718.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  88.60 59.50  0.00  33.05   3751.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  88.20 58.10  0.00  32.15   3783.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  89.40 58.10  0.00  32.75   3816.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  92.20 59.80  0.00  35.00   3851.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  91.40 60.20  0.02  34.80   3885.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  90.90 59.30  0.02  34.10   3920.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  90.60 59.30  0.00  33.95   3953.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  90.20 58.20  0.00  33.20   3987.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  92.10 58.10  0.00  34.10   4021.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  92.60 59.40  0.01  35.00   4056.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  91.00 59.70  0.01  34.35   4090.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  89.00 58.60  0.01  32.80   4123.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  87.90 56.90  0.00  31.40   4154.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  85.30 56.80  0.01  30.05   4184.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  85.60 55.50  0.00  29.55   4214.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  86.90 55.50  0.00  30.20   4244.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  87.30 56.20  0.02  30.75   4275.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  87.50 54.80  0.00  30.15   4305.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  88.50 56.90  0.00  31.70   4337.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  88.40 57.40  0.00  31.90   4369.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  85.80 56.80  0.00  30.30   4399.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  82.10 55.20  0.00  27.65   4427.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  81.10 53.20  0.01  26.15   4453.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  83.30 52.70  0.00  27.00   4480.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  83.70 53.00  0.00  27.35   4507.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  83.10 51.90  0.00  26.50   4534.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.90 53.70  0.01  27.30   4561.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.80 53.50  0.04  27.65   4589.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.00 53.00  0.01  26.00   4615.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 51.60  0.00  25.45   4640.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.80 52.00  0.00  26.40   4666.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  83.00 52.70  0.00  26.85   4693.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 50.80  0.00  25.15   4718.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.90 49.50  0.00  25.70   4744.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.50 50.70  0.00  28.10   4772.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 52.00  0.00  27.60   4800.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 51.50  0.00  25.50   4825.7  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2767 QA 97% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 5 days ahead 2017 ok
 7 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-6-18 854peak pheromone trap catch
 5-11-18 966peak female adult emergence
 5-13-18 1015peak egg laying
 5-23-18 1295peak egg hatch
 6-23-18 2085peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)