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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 31.70 16.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 30.70 28.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 35.30 20.60 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 32.10 20.30 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 35.40 29.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 36.40 27.10 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 35.10 29.30 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 37.90 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 9 42.50 35.50 0.00 0.30 0.3
1 10 49.20 36.90 0.00 3.09 3.4
1 11 43.20 31.30 0.00 0.41 3.8
1 12 40.80 28.00 0.00 0.00 3.8
1 13 49.30 34.20 0.00 2.79 6.6
1 14 47.20 29.20 0.00 1.60 8.2
1 15 42.70 28.20 0.00 0.25 8.4
1 16 51.50 29.00 0.00 3.21 11.7
1 17 43.80 31.70 0.00 0.59 12.2
1 18 50.50 39.60 0.00 4.27 16.5
1 19 50.10 34.10 0.00 3.12 19.6
1 20 50.70 36.20 0.00 3.67 23.3
1 21 45.70 29.10 0.00 1.09 24.4
1 22 51.90 27.60 0.00 3.26 27.7
1 23 38.40 26.80 0.00 0.00 27.7
1 24 48.70 34.90 0.00 2.61 30.3
1 25 48.30 31.50 0.00 2.15 32.4
1 26 48.20 35.90 0.00 2.51 34.9
1 27 55.80 38.90 0.00 6.67 41.6
1 28 46.00 38.70 0.00 1.92 43.5
1 29 52.20 38.10 0.00 4.72 48.2
1 30 54.00 29.70 0.00 4.30 52.5
1 31 47.80 25.30 0.00 1.64 54.2
2 1 47.80 24.60 0.00 1.61 55.8
2 2 56.60 36.40 0.00 6.45 62.2
2 3 62.80 41.80 0.00 11.30 73.5
2 4 65.80 45.70 0.00 14.75 88.3
2 5 61.00 35.60 0.00 8.38 96.7
2 6 56.80 26.20 0.00 5.12 101.8
2 7 55.00 39.20 0.00 6.36 108.2
2 8 68.30 42.90 0.00 14.60 122.8
2 9 49.90 36.00 0.00 3.27 126.0
2 10 45.80 22.30 0.00 0.94 127.0
2 11 42.50 25.90 0.00 0.19 127.2
2 12 39.40 22.90 0.00 0.00 127.2
2 13 44.40 14.30 0.00 0.49 127.7
2 14 46.20 26.80 0.00 1.18 128.8
2 15 48.30 26.90 0.00 1.88 130.7
2 16 57.60 32.70 0.00 6.26 137.0
2 17 61.10 30.50 0.00 7.51 144.5
2 18 46.00 23.80 0.00 1.03 145.5
2 19 32.50 14.10 0.00 0.00 145.5
2 20 32.80 8.90 0.00 0.00 145.5
2 21 32.40 14.80 0.00 0.00 145.5
2 22 35.50 16.60 0.00 0.00 145.5
2 23 34.40 8.50 0.00 0.00 145.5
2 24 43.90 29.30 0.00 0.56 146.1
2 25 53.10 34.80 0.00 4.54 150.6
2 26 47.90 29.90 0.00 1.89 152.5 Pn
2 27 51.30 19.50 0.00 2.58 155.1
2 28 52.10 27.20 0.00 3.31 158.4
3 1 50.60 29.50 0.00 2.90 161.3
3 2 51.10 28.90 0.00 3.05 164.3
3 3 48.70 18.60 0.00 1.70 166.0
3 4 52.20 17.60 0.00 2.80 168.8
3 5 52.80 28.80 0.00 3.72 172.6
3 6 50.90 17.90 0.00 2.38 174.9
3 7 50.60 18.90 0.00 2.32 177.3
3 8 56.70 29.30 0.00 5.41 182.7
3 9 55.20 33.20 0.00 5.25 187.9
3 10 57.90 19.00 0.00 4.97 192.9
3 11 60.50 34.90 0.00 8.00 200.9
3 12 64.50 27.50 0.00 8.60 209.5
3 13 60.10 41.40 0.00 9.75 219.2
3 14 59.40 39.50 0.00 8.63 227.9
3 15 56.90 29.60 0.00 5.53 233.4
3 16 56.80 31.10 0.00 5.67 239.1
3 17 57.80 31.40 0.00 6.16 245.2
3 18 59.90 38.80 0.00 8.65 253.9
3 19 59.60 25.30 0.00 6.20 260.1
3 20 61.40 22.00 0.00 6.62 266.7
3 21 54.60 31.50 0.00 4.76 271.5
3 22 58.30 35.70 0.00 7.12 278.6
3 23 53.50 25.90 0.00 3.76 282.3
3 24 53.60 33.50 0.00 4.58 286.9
3 25 56.90 28.90 0.00 5.45 292.4
3 26 52.80 28.90 0.00 3.73 296.1
3 27 66.30 43.40 0.00 13.85 309.9
3 28 64.20 28.50 0.00 8.61 318.6
3 29 66.00 34.70 0.00 10.58 329.1
3 30 66.40 36.40 0.00 11.18 340.3
3 31 58.70 30.70 0.00 6.46 346.8
4 1 61.10 30.90 0.00 7.57 354.3
4 2 55.70 30.30 0.00 5.09 359.4
4 3 52.40 25.20 0.00 3.29 362.7
4 4 56.00 42.30 0.00 8.15 370.9
4 5 53.00 45.00 0.00 8.00 378.9
4 6 62.90 47.80 0.00 14.35 393.2
4 7 65.70 44.80 0.00 14.25 407.5
4 8 63.00 41.20 0.00 11.10 418.6
4 9 63.70 34.50 0.00 9.43 428.0
4 10 69.30 44.90 0.00 16.10 444.1
4 11 60.80 45.70 0.00 12.25 456.4
4 12 59.50 42.60 0.00 10.05 466.4
4 13 59.30 39.90 0.00 8.71 475.1
4 14 66.80 48.70 0.00 16.75 491.9
4 15 62.50 47.90 0.00 14.20 506.1
4 16 58.40 43.10 0.00 9.75 515.8
4 17 61.30 41.70 0.00 10.50 526.3
4 18 62.60 33.00 0.00 8.62 534.9
4 19 68.10 42.20 0.00 14.15 549.1
4 20 71.30 40.30 0.00 14.84 563.9
4 21 66.00 43.40 0.00 13.70 577.6
4 22 64.10 31.70 0.00 9.08 586.7
4 23 68.60 32.90 0.00 11.43 598.1
4 24 75.30 33.50 0.00 14.77 612.9
4 25 79.70 38.20 0.00 18.26 631.2
4 26 82.30 35.90 0.00 18.83 650.0
4 27 85.60 41.80 0.00 22.70 672.7
4 28 68.20 46.40 0.00 16.30 689.0
4 29 69.50 40.50 0.00 14.03 703.0
4 30 68.40 38.90 0.00 12.89 715.9
5 1 71.80 43.40 0.00 16.60 732.5
5 2 77.70 39.40 0.00 17.69 750.2
5 3 82.90 41.30 0.00 21.10 771.3
5 4 83.60 57.30 0.00 29.45 800.8
5 5 78.70 56.30 0.00 26.50 827.3
5 6 76.70 58.00 0.00 26.35 853.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 7 81.30 56.90 0.00 28.10 881.7
5 8 85.30 48.60 0.00 25.95 907.7
5 9 77.20 54.10 0.00 24.65 932.3
5 10 66.60 45.90 0.00 15.25 947.6
5 11 69.80 48.50 0.00 18.15 965.7 Peak female adult emergence
5 12 83.20 42.80 0.00 22.00 987.7
5 13 87.00 49.00 0.00 27.00 1014.7 Peak egg laying
5 14 90.60 48.50 0.00 28.55 1043.3
5 15 92.20 49.70 0.00 29.95 1073.2
5 16 81.40 62.70 0.00 31.05 1104.3
5 17 82.10 53.20 0.00 26.65 1130.9
5 18 73.00 55.30 0.00 23.15 1154.1
5 19 79.60 51.10 0.00 24.35 1178.4
5 20 79.80 53.50 0.00 25.65 1204.1
5 21 84.40 49.40 0.00 25.90 1230.0
5 22 90.20 51.60 0.00 29.90 1259.9
5 23 90.20 61.10 0.00 34.65 1294.5 Peak egg hatch
5 24 90.80 62.30 0.00 35.55 1330.1 Pn
5 25 82.00 54.30 0.00 27.15 1357.2
5 26 81.00 54.20 0.00 26.60 1383.8
5 27 84.10 45.10 0.00 23.60 1407.4
5 28 90.80 49.70 0.00 29.25 1436.7
5 29 79.90 44.70 0.00 21.30 1458.0
5 30 72.70 41.00 0.00 15.85 1473.8
5 31 71.70 43.00 0.00 16.35 1490.2
6 1 77.60 49.10 0.00 22.35 1512.5
6 2 84.20 44.70 0.00 23.45 1536.0
6 3 89.70 48.70 0.00 28.20 1564.2
6 4 77.40 54.00 0.00 24.70 1588.9
6 5 80.50 47.80 0.00 23.15 1612.0
6 6 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 1635.5
6 7 87.50 47.50 0.00 26.50 1662.0
6 8 85.80 51.00 0.00 27.40 1689.4
6 9 67.50 51.60 0.00 18.55 1708.0
6 10 69.00 48.90 0.00 17.95 1725.9
6 11 76.10 37.00 0.00 16.10 1742.0
6 12 79.00 42.40 0.00 19.70 1761.7
6 13 82.00 51.00 0.00 25.50 1787.2
6 14 77.60 47.40 0.00 21.50 1808.7
6 15 81.10 47.50 0.00 23.30 1832.0
6 16 77.30 57.00 0.00 26.15 1858.2
6 17 84.70 53.40 0.00 28.05 1886.2
6 18 79.10 60.30 0.00 28.70 1914.9
6 19 86.50 59.90 0.00 32.20 1947.1
6 20 92.50 57.20 0.00 33.85 1981.0
6 21 93.40 70.90 0.00 41.15 2022.1
6 22 89.80 54.70 0.00 31.25 2053.4
6 23 87.10 58.80 0.00 31.95 2085.3 Peak in density large larvae
6 24 92.90 55.60 0.00 33.25 2118.6
6 25 81.50 59.60 0.00 29.55 2148.1
6 26 82.30 46.40 0.00 23.35 2171.5 Px
6 27 88.10 52.00 0.00 29.05 2200.5 Px Pn
6 28 83.60 61.60 0.00 31.60 2232.1 Px Pn
6 29 84.30 56.50 0.00 29.40 2261.5 Pn
6 30 87.30 55.70 0.00 30.50 2292.0
7 1 86.80 55.70 0.00 30.25 2322.3
7 2 77.40 53.20 0.00 24.30 2346.6
7 3 80.50 50.90 0.00 24.70 2371.3
7 4 89.20 51.10 0.00 29.15 2400.4
7 5 98.60 70.60 0.00 43.60 2444.0
7 6 93.60 65.30 0.00 38.45 2482.5
7 7 88.10 56.20 0.00 31.15 2513.6
7 8 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 2544.8
7 9 98.90 58.90 0.00 37.90 2582.7
7 10 85.50 61.40 0.00 32.45 2615.1
7 11 90.40 56.30 0.00 32.35 2647.5
7 12 96.40 58.80 0.00 36.60 2684.1
7 13 106.40 60.70 0.00 42.55 2726.6
7 14 94.90 68.20 0.00 40.55 2767.2
7 15 99.40 52.40 0.00 34.90 2802.1
7 16 102.60 56.70 0.00 38.65 2840.7
7 17 105.10 64.90 0.00 44.00 2884.7
7 18 100.10 60.20 0.00 39.15 2923.9
7 19 95.90 58.00 0.00 35.95 2959.8
7 20 89.20 50.30 0.00 28.75 2988.6
7 21 86.60 51.80 0.00 28.20 3016.8
7 22 92.00 64.30 0.00 37.15 3053.9
7 23 98.60 53.40 0.00 35.00 3088.9
7 24 99.40 57.30 0.00 37.35 3126.3
7 25 99.90 63.60 0.00 40.75 3167.0
7 26 100.80 66.30 0.00 42.55 3209.6
7 27 99.10 66.70 0.00 41.90 3251.5
7 28 98.80 64.70 0.00 40.75 3292.2
7 29 102.90 62.00 0.00 41.45 3333.7
7 30 104.60 59.90 0.00 41.25 3374.9
7 31 103.20 65.30 0.00 43.25 3418.2
8 1 100.40 58.00 0.00 38.20 3456.4
8 2 96.30 56.00 0.00 35.15 3491.5
8 3 87.20 53.50 0.00 29.35 3520.9
8 4 65.40 52.40 0.00 17.90 3538.8
8 5 91.80 62.10 0.00 35.95 3574.7 Px Pn
8 6 97.60 52.80 0.00 34.20 3608.9
8 7 99.60 60.80 0.00 39.20 3648.1
8 8 105.60 61.00 0.00 42.30 3690.4
8 9 106.40 61.60 0.00 43.00 3733.4
8 10 107.40 65.40 0.00 45.40 3778.8
8 11 91.30 64.30 0.00 36.80 3815.6
8 12 82.80 51.00 0.00 25.90 3841.5
8 13 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 3871.2
8 14 92.00 52.70 0.00 31.35 3902.6
8 15 94.70 51.40 0.00 32.05 3934.6
8 16 99.00 65.00 0.00 41.00 3975.6
8 17 93.50 68.00 0.00 39.75 4015.4
8 18 92.30 54.00 0.00 32.15 4047.5
8 19 89.50 54.30 0.00 30.90 4078.4
8 20 90.10 61.00 0.00 34.55 4113.0
8 21 88.20 60.30 0.00 33.25 4146.2
8 22 94.30 50.80 0.00 31.55 4177.8
8 23 92.10 56.10 0.00 33.10 4210.9
8 24 80.20 57.00 0.00 27.60 4238.5
8 25 76.10 47.30 0.00 20.70 4259.2
8 26 73.30 50.10 0.00 20.70 4279.9
8 27 77.30 52.20 0.00 23.75 4303.6
8 28 83.60 45.60 0.00 23.60 4327.2
8 29 92.50 45.50 0.00 28.00 4355.2
8 30 84.60 60.40 0.00 31.50 4386.7
8 31 81.40 50.30 0.00 24.85 4411.6
9 1 80.80 44.50 0.00 21.65 4433.2
9 2 85.60 48.40 0.00 26.00 4459.2
9 3 84.90 53.40 0.00 28.15 4487.4
9 4 83.70 59.40 0.00 30.55 4517.9
9 5 86.80 44.50 0.00 24.65 4542.6
9 6 88.30 45.70 0.00 26.00 4568.6
9 7 93.70 50.40 0.00 31.05 4599.6
9 8 80.70 55.30 0.00 27.00 4626.6
9 9 83.30 48.90 0.00 25.10 4651.7
9 10 79.40 51.70 0.00 24.55 4676.3
9 11 76.70 56.70 0.00 25.70 4702.0
9 12 75.40 51.60 0.00 22.50 4724.5
9 13 75.50 42.50 0.00 18.00 4742.5
9 14 76.40 40.20 0.00 17.35 4759.8
9 15 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 4779.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-6-18 | 854 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-11-18 | 966 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-13-18 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
5-23-18 | 1295 | Peak egg hatch |
6-23-18 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |