Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 30.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 26.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 23.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 24.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 18.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 16.00 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vn 1 7 20.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vn 1 8 28.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 28.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 27.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 23.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 12 17.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 7.00 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vn 1 14 14.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 15.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 22.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 20.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 18 32.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 19 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 20 36.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 21 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 22 36.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 23 35.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 24 37.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 25 33.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 26 36.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 27 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 28 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 29 32.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 30 33.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 31 34.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 1 26.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 2 29.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 3 27.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 4 35.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 5 33.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 6 42.00 29.00 0.00 0.12 0.1 2 7 34.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 2 8 28.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 2 9 44.00 27.00 0.00 0.54 0.7 2 10 49.00 31.00 0.00 2.38 3.0 2 11 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.74 3.8 2 12 41.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 13 41.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 14 28.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 15 32.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 16 46.00 32.00 0.00 1.32 5.1 2 17 44.00 28.00 0.00 0.56 5.7 2 18 41.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 5.7 2 19 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 9.2 2 20 53.00 32.00 0.00 4.13 13.3 2 21 43.00 36.00 0.00 0.47 13.8 2 22 50.00 26.00 0.00 2.44 16.2 2 23 48.00 21.00 0.00 1.56 17.8 2 24 46.00 20.00 0.00 0.95 18.7 2 25 47.00 17.00 0.00 1.16 19.9 2 26 40.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 19.9 2 27 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 20.8 2 28 50.00 24.00 0.00 2.34 23.2 3 1 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 29.5 3 2 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 32.3 3 3 55.00 38.00 0.00 6.04 38.4 3 4 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 41.2 3 5 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 44.0 3 6 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 47.1 3 7 48.00 33.00 0.00 2.14 49.2 3 8 49.00 35.00 0.00 2.75 52.0 3 9 44.00 37.00 0.00 0.88 52.9 3 10 67.00 37.00 0.00 11.63 64.5 3 11 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 68.2 3 12 58.00 39.00 0.00 7.78 76.0 3 13 51.00 43.00 0.00 6.00 82.0 3 14 70.00 46.00 0.00 17.00 99.0 3 15 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 114.5 3 16 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 121.1 3 17 51.00 30.00 0.00 3.10 124.2 3 18 64.00 40.00 0.00 11.09 135.3 3 19 54.00 29.00 0.00 4.23 139.5 3 20 53.00 31.00 0.00 4.02 143.6 3 21 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 148.0 3 22 58.00 33.00 0.00 6.49 154.4 3 23 58.00 29.00 0.00 5.93 160.4 3 24 60.00 42.00 0.00 10.00 170.4 3 25 60.00 41.00 0.00 9.50 179.9 3 26 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 183.4 3 27 63.00 38.00 0.00 9.95 193.3 3 28 58.00 42.00 0.00 9.00 202.3 3 29 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 214.3 3 30 62.00 38.00 0.00 9.46 223.8 3 31 64.00 34.00 0.00 9.47 233.2 4 1 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 245.3 4 2 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 253.4 4 3 59.00 27.00 0.00 6.13 259.5 4 4 62.90 38.60 0.00 10.07 269.6 Hx Hn 4 5 65.00 48.00 0.00 15.50 285.1 4 6 66.00 47.00 0.00 15.50 300.6 4 7 67.00 48.00 0.00 16.50 317.1 4 8 60.00 38.00 0.00 8.48 325.6 4 9 57.00 30.00 0.00 5.62 331.2 4 10 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 341.2 4 11 62.00 27.00 0.00 7.43 348.6 4 12 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 360.1 4 13 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 372.1 4 14 61.00 33.00 0.00 7.87 380.0 4 15 61.00 27.00 0.00 7.00 387.0 4 16 68.00 31.00 0.00 10.77 397.8 4 17 65.00 46.00 0.00 14.50 412.3 4 18 68.00 45.00 0.00 15.50 427.8 4 19 69.00 33.00 0.00 11.64 439.4 4 20 66.00 45.00 0.00 14.50 453.9 4 21 67.00 34.00 0.00 10.90 464.8 4 22 71.00 43.00 0.00 16.00 480.8 4 23 66.00 44.00 0.00 14.00 494.8 4 24 61.00 47.00 0.00 13.00 507.8 4 25 67.00 41.00 0.00 13.00 520.8 4 26 64.00 42.00 0.00 12.00 532.8 4 27 63.00 34.00 0.00 9.00 541.8 4 28 67.00 36.00 0.00 11.37 553.2 4 29 66.00 31.00 0.00 9.84 563.0 4 30 68.00 43.00 0.00 14.50 577.5 5 1 61.00 38.00 0.00 8.97 586.5 5 2 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 599.6 5 3 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 625.6 5 4 89.00 52.00 0.00 29.50 655.1 5 5 75.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 679.6 5 6 66.00 43.00 0.00 13.50 693.1 5 7 68.00 35.00 0.00 11.61 704.7 5 8 74.00 35.00 0.00 14.51 719.2 5 9 78.00 42.00 0.00 19.00 738.2 5 10 83.00 42.00 0.00 21.50 759.7 5 11 73.00 53.00 0.00 22.00 781.7 5 12 64.00 49.00 0.00 15.50 797.2 5 13 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 808.7 5 14 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 819.6 5 15 67.00 34.00 0.00 10.90 830.5 5 16 61.00 44.00 0.00 11.50 842.0 5 17 72.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 857.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 18 75.00 48.10 0.00 20.55 878.1 5 19 80.90 48.30 0.00 23.60 901.7 5 20 77.60 54.40 0.00 25.00 926.7 5 21 85.80 44.80 0.00 24.30 951.0 peak female adult emergence 5 22 90.60 47.30 0.00 27.95 978.9 5 23 96.00 49.60 0.00 31.80 1010.7 peak egg laying 5 24 72.30 53.70 0.00 22.00 1032.7 5 25 69.90 41.60 0.00 14.75 1047.5 5 26 81.80 39.70 0.00 19.85 1067.3 5 27 88.50 47.00 0.00 26.75 1094.1 5 28 93.10 48.50 0.00 29.80 1123.9 5 29 96.20 52.20 0.00 33.20 1157.1 5 30 97.60 56.20 0.00 35.90 1193.0 5 31 74.50 54.30 0.00 23.40 1216.4 6 1 79.70 53.20 0.00 25.45 1241.8 6 2 84.10 49.50 0.00 25.80 1267.6 6 3 88.30 51.10 0.00 28.70 1296.3 peak egg hatch 6 4 76.70 56.80 0.00 25.75 1322.1 6 5 80.60 42.40 0.00 20.50 1342.6 6 6 89.50 49.90 0.00 28.70 1371.3 6 7 90.50 58.10 0.00 33.30 1404.6 6 8 79.90 55.10 0.00 26.50 1431.1 6 9 74.30 44.90 0.00 18.60 1449.7 6 10 73.10 46.30 0.00 18.70 1468.4 6 11 77.60 40.50 0.00 18.07 1486.4 6 12 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 1514.6 6 13 78.90 53.20 0.00 25.05 1539.6 6 14 75.80 49.60 0.00 21.70 1561.3 6 15 71.70 56.70 0.00 23.20 1584.5 6 16 72.90 58.50 0.00 24.70 1609.2 6 17 79.60 44.10 0.00 20.85 1630.1 6 18 88.60 60.50 0.00 33.55 1663.6 6 19 95.80 58.70 0.00 36.25 1699.9 6 20 93.10 65.50 0.00 38.30 1738.2 6 21 88.90 49.60 0.00 28.25 1766.4 6 22 84.30 59.60 0.00 30.95 1797.4 6 23 90.00 46.60 0.00 27.30 1824.7 6 24 95.70 49.80 0.00 31.75 1856.4 QA 96% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for HPROS data
  6 25  98.70 53.90  0.00  35.30   1891.7  0.00_26.30%_precip.    
  6 26  91.20 65.60  0.12  37.40   1929.1  0.124_28.40%_precip.    
  6 27  86.80 61.30  0.00  33.05   1962.2  0.00_24.05%_precip.    
  6 28  84.40 54.90  0.00  28.65   1990.8  0.00_19.65%_precip.    
  6 29  85.10 52.50  0.00  27.80   2018.6  0.00_18.80%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg HPROS 2006-2015
  6 30  86.20 59.10  0.01  31.65   2050.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  87.20 58.60  0.01  31.90   2082.2  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  2  91.20 59.00  0.01  34.10   2116.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  93.50 60.70  0.00  36.10   2152.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  91.80 60.50  0.00  35.15   2187.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  90.90 59.90  0.00  34.40   2221.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  91.80 60.40  0.00  35.10   2257.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  91.40 59.30  0.00  34.35   2291.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  92.50 59.10  0.00  34.80   2326.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  92.90 59.70  0.00  35.30   2361.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  95.10 60.70  0.00  36.90   2398.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  93.20 61.30  0.00  36.25   2434.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  93.30 60.10  0.00  35.70   2470.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  90.40 59.80  0.01  34.10   2504.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  88.40 59.70  0.01  33.05   2537.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  91.10 59.40  0.00  34.25   2571.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  92.30 60.50  0.00  35.40   2607.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  92.50 61.40  0.03  35.95   2643.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  92.50 61.70  0.00  36.10   2679.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  91.00 61.70  0.00  35.35   2714.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  91.10 60.40  0.00  34.75   2749.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  91.10 59.90  0.00  34.50   2783.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  92.10 60.40  0.00  35.25   2819.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  91.80 61.10  0.00  35.45   2854.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  91.00 59.70  0.00  34.35   2888.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  91.70 59.40  0.00  34.55   2923.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  92.10 59.30  0.00  34.70   2958.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  93.10 61.30  0.00  36.20   2994.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  92.30 61.40  0.00  35.85   3030.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  91.60 60.20  0.00  34.90   3065.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  92.10 60.60  0.00  35.35   3100.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  92.20 60.10  0.00  35.15   3135.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  92.40 58.80  0.01  34.60   3170.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  92.30 60.50  0.00  35.40   3205.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  91.10 60.90  0.01  35.00   3240.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  91.20 60.40  0.00  34.80   3275.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  93.70 60.40  0.00  36.05   3311.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  94.00 60.70  0.00  36.35   3347.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  92.80 61.20  0.00  36.00   3383.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  92.10 60.90  0.00  35.50   3419.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  90.60 60.50  0.00  34.55   3453.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  88.60 59.50  0.00  33.05   3486.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  88.20 58.10  0.00  32.15   3519.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  89.40 58.10  0.00  32.75   3551.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  92.20 59.80  0.00  35.00   3586.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  91.40 60.20  0.02  34.80   3621.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  90.90 59.30  0.02  34.10   3655.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  90.60 59.30  0.00  33.95   3689.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  90.20 58.20  0.00  33.20   3722.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  92.10 58.10  0.00  34.10   3756.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  92.60 59.40  0.01  35.00   3791.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  91.00 59.70  0.01  34.35   3826.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  89.00 58.60  0.01  32.80   3859.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  87.90 56.90  0.00  31.40   3890.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  85.30 56.80  0.01  30.05   3920.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  85.60 55.50  0.00  29.55   3950.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  86.90 55.50  0.00  30.20   3980.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  87.30 56.20  0.02  30.75   4011.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  87.50 54.80  0.00  30.15   4041.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  88.50 56.90  0.00  31.70   4072.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  88.40 57.40  0.00  31.90   4104.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  85.80 56.80  0.00  30.30   4135.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  82.10 55.20  0.00  27.65   4162.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  81.10 53.20  0.01  26.15   4188.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  83.30 52.70  0.00  27.00   4215.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  83.70 53.00  0.00  27.35   4243.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  83.10 51.90  0.00  26.50   4269.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.90 53.70  0.01  27.30   4297.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.80 53.50  0.04  27.65   4324.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.00 53.00  0.01  26.00   4350.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 51.60  0.00  25.45   4376.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.80 52.00  0.00  26.40   4402.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  83.00 52.70  0.00  26.85   4429.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 50.80  0.00  25.15   4454.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.90 49.50  0.00  25.70   4480.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.50 50.70  0.00  28.10   4508.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 52.00  0.00  27.60   4535.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 51.50  0.00  25.50   4561.4  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf
QA 96% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 20 days behind 2016 ok
 18 days behind 2015 ok
 1 day behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-17-17 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-21-17 951peak female adult emergence
 5-23-17 1011peak egg laying
 6-3-17 1296peak egg hatch
 7-1-17 2082peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)