Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 30.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 26.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 23.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 24.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 18.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 16.00 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vn 1 7 20.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vn 1 8 28.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 28.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 27.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 23.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 12 17.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 7.00 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vn 1 14 14.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 15.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 22.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 20.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 18 32.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 19 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 20 36.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 21 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 22 36.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 23 35.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 24 37.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 25 33.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 26 36.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 27 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 28 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 29 32.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 30 33.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 31 34.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 1 26.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 2 29.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 3 27.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 4 35.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 5 33.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 2 6 42.00 29.00 0.00 0.12 0.1 2 7 34.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 2 8 28.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 2 9 44.00 27.00 0.00 0.54 0.7 2 10 49.00 31.00 0.00 2.38 3.0 2 11 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.74 3.8 2 12 41.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 13 41.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 14 28.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 15 32.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 2 16 46.00 32.00 0.00 1.32 5.1 2 17 44.00 28.00 0.00 0.56 5.7 2 18 41.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 5.7 2 19 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 9.2 2 20 53.00 32.00 0.00 4.13 13.3 2 21 43.00 36.00 0.00 0.47 13.8 2 22 50.00 26.00 0.00 2.44 16.2 2 23 48.00 21.00 0.00 1.56 17.8 2 24 46.00 20.00 0.00 0.95 18.7 2 25 47.00 17.00 0.00 1.16 19.9 2 26 40.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 19.9 2 27 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 20.8 2 28 50.00 24.00 0.00 2.34 23.2 3 1 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 29.5 3 2 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 32.3 3 3 55.00 38.00 0.00 6.04 38.4 3 4 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 41.2 3 5 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 44.0 3 6 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 47.1 3 7 48.00 33.00 0.00 2.14 49.2 3 8 49.00 35.00 0.00 2.75 52.0 3 9 44.00 37.00 0.00 0.88 52.9 3 10 67.00 37.00 0.00 11.63 64.5 3 11 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 68.2 3 12 58.00 39.00 0.00 7.78 76.0 3 13 51.00 43.00 0.00 6.00 82.0 3 14 70.00 46.00 0.00 17.00 99.0 3 15 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 114.5 3 16 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 121.1 3 17 51.00 30.00 0.00 3.10 124.2 3 18 64.00 40.00 0.00 11.09 135.3 3 19 54.00 29.00 0.00 4.23 139.5 3 20 53.00 31.00 0.00 4.02 143.6 3 21 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 148.0 3 22 58.00 33.00 0.00 6.49 154.4 3 23 58.00 29.00 0.00 5.93 160.4 3 24 60.00 42.00 0.00 10.00 170.4 3 25 60.00 41.00 0.00 9.50 179.9 3 26 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 183.4 3 27 63.00 38.00 0.00 9.95 193.3 3 28 58.00 42.00 0.00 9.00 202.3 3 29 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 214.3 3 30 62.00 38.00 0.00 9.46 223.8 3 31 64.00 34.00 0.00 9.47 233.2 4 1 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 245.3 4 2 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 253.4 4 3 59.00 27.00 0.00 6.13 259.5 4 4 62.90 38.60 0.00 10.07 269.6 Hx Hn 4 5 65.00 48.00 0.00 15.50 285.1 4 6 66.00 47.00 0.00 15.50 300.6 4 7 67.00 48.00 0.00 16.50 317.1 4 8 60.00 38.00 0.00 8.48 325.6 4 9 57.00 30.00 0.00 5.62 331.2 4 10 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 341.2 4 11 62.00 27.00 0.00 7.43 348.6 4 12 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 360.1 4 13 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 372.1 4 14 61.00 33.00 0.00 7.87 380.0 4 15 61.00 27.00 0.00 7.00 387.0 4 16 68.00 31.00 0.00 10.77 397.8 4 17 65.00 46.00 0.00 14.50 412.3 4 18 68.00 45.00 0.00 15.50 427.8 4 19 69.00 33.00 0.00 11.64 439.4 4 20 66.00 45.00 0.00 14.50 453.9 4 21 67.00 34.00 0.00 10.90 464.8 4 22 71.00 43.00 0.00 16.00 480.8 4 23 66.00 44.00 0.00 14.00 494.8 4 24 61.00 47.00 0.00 13.00 507.8 4 25 67.00 41.00 0.00 13.00 520.8 4 26 64.00 42.00 0.00 12.00 532.8 4 27 63.00 34.00 0.00 9.00 541.8 4 28 67.00 36.00 0.00 11.37 553.2 4 29 66.00 31.00 0.00 9.84 563.0 4 30 68.00 43.00 0.00 14.50 577.5 5 1 61.00 38.00 0.00 8.97 586.5 5 2 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 599.6 5 3 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 625.6 5 4 89.00 52.00 0.00 29.50 655.1 5 5 75.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 679.6 5 6 66.00 43.00 0.00 13.50 693.1 5 7 68.00 35.00 0.00 11.61 704.7 5 8 74.00 35.00 0.00 14.51 719.2 5 9 78.00 42.00 0.00 19.00 738.2 5 10 83.00 42.00 0.00 21.50 759.7 5 11 73.00 53.00 0.00 22.00 781.7 5 12 64.00 49.00 0.00 15.50 797.2 5 13 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 808.7 5 14 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 819.6 5 15 67.00 34.00 0.00 10.90 830.5 5 16 61.00 44.00 0.00 11.50 842.0 5 17 72.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 857.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 18 75.00 48.10 0.00 20.55 878.1 5 19 80.90 48.30 0.00 23.60 901.7 5 20 77.60 54.40 0.00 25.00 926.7 5 21 85.80 44.80 0.00 24.30 951.0 peak female adult emergence 5 22 90.60 47.30 0.00 27.95 978.9 5 23 96.00 49.60 0.00 31.80 1010.7 peak egg laying
DD accumulation on 5-23-17: 1011QA 96% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 21 days behind 2016 ok
 16 days behind 2015 ok
 2 days behind 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for HPROS data
  5 24  69.20 51.10  0.00  19.15   1029.9  0.00_10.15%_precip.    
  5 25  74.00 56.50  0.00  24.25   1054.1  0.002_15.25%_precip.    
  5 26  81.40 59.30  0.00  29.35   1083.5  0.00_20.35%_precip.    
  5 27  86.90 48.10  0.00  26.50   1110.0  0.00_17.55%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg HPROS 2006-2015
  5 28  73.40 50.30  0.03  20.85   1130.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  74.40 50.50  0.04  21.45   1152.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  77.20 50.10  0.02  22.65   1174.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  80.70 51.80  0.00  25.25   1200.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  82.80 53.70  0.01  27.25   1227.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  82.10 54.90  0.04  27.50   1254.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  78.50 54.40  0.07  25.45   1280.4  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6  4  78.50 53.90  0.05  25.20   1305.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  79.30 53.80  0.10  25.55   1331.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  78.00 53.40  0.04  24.70   1355.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  78.20 54.00  0.00  25.10   1380.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  78.80 52.60  0.02  24.70   1405.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  79.70 52.20  0.02  24.95   1430.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  78.20 53.00  0.02  24.60   1455.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  77.90 52.50  0.01  24.20   1479.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  79.70 51.90  0.00  24.80   1504.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  80.60 52.40  0.01  25.50   1529.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  78.00 52.40  0.03  24.20   1553.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  78.60 51.90  0.00  24.25   1578.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  79.60 51.70  0.00  24.65   1602.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  81.60 53.30  0.02  26.45   1629.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  79.70 54.80  0.02  26.25   1655.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  78.40 53.40  0.01  24.90   1680.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  80.00 53.40  0.01  25.70   1706.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  81.00 53.50  0.01  26.25   1732.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  81.00 54.60  0.01  26.80   1759.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  83.10 53.30  0.02  27.20   1786.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  81.30 54.00  0.03  26.65   1813.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  83.50 55.00  0.01  28.25   1841.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  83.40 55.00  0.04  28.20   1869.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  84.60 55.70  0.02  29.15   1898.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  89.50 57.80  0.00  32.65   1931.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  92.20 60.60  0.01  35.40   1966.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  86.20 59.10  0.01  31.65   1998.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  87.20 58.60  0.01  31.90   2030.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  91.20 59.00  0.01  34.10   2064.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  93.50 60.70  0.00  36.10   2100.4  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  4  91.80 60.50  0.00  35.15   2135.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  90.90 59.90  0.00  34.40   2169.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  91.80 60.40  0.00  35.10   2205.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  91.40 59.30  0.00  34.35   2239.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  92.50 59.10  0.00  34.80   2274.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  92.90 59.70  0.00  35.30   2309.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  95.10 60.70  0.00  36.90   2346.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  93.20 61.30  0.00  36.25   2382.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  93.30 60.10  0.00  35.70   2418.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  90.40 59.80  0.01  34.10   2452.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  88.40 59.70  0.01  33.05   2485.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  91.10 59.40  0.00  34.25   2519.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  92.30 60.50  0.00  35.40   2555.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  92.50 61.40  0.03  35.95   2591.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  92.50 61.70  0.00  36.10   2627.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  91.00 61.70  0.00  35.35   2662.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  91.10 60.40  0.00  34.75   2697.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  91.10 59.90  0.00  34.50   2731.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  92.10 60.40  0.00  35.25   2767.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  91.80 61.10  0.00  35.45   2802.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  91.00 59.70  0.00  34.35   2836.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  91.70 59.40  0.00  34.55   2871.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  92.10 59.30  0.00  34.70   2906.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  93.10 61.30  0.00  36.20   2942.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  92.30 61.40  0.00  35.85   2978.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  91.60 60.20  0.00  34.90   3013.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  92.10 60.60  0.00  35.35   3048.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  92.20 60.10  0.00  35.15   3083.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  92.40 58.80  0.01  34.60   3118.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  92.30 60.50  0.00  35.40   3153.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  91.10 60.90  0.01  35.00   3188.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  91.20 60.40  0.00  34.80   3223.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  93.70 60.40  0.00  36.05   3259.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  94.00 60.70  0.00  36.35   3295.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  92.80 61.20  0.00  36.00   3331.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  92.10 60.90  0.00  35.50   3367.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  90.60 60.50  0.00  34.55   3401.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  88.60 59.50  0.00  33.05   3434.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  88.20 58.10  0.00  32.15   3467.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  89.40 58.10  0.00  32.75   3499.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  92.20 59.80  0.00  35.00   3534.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  91.40 60.20  0.02  34.80   3569.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  90.90 59.30  0.02  34.10   3603.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  90.60 59.30  0.00  33.95   3637.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  90.20 58.20  0.00  33.20   3670.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  92.10 58.10  0.00  34.10   3704.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  92.60 59.40  0.01  35.00   3739.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  91.00 59.70  0.01  34.35   3774.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  89.00 58.60  0.01  32.80   3807.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  87.90 56.90  0.00  31.40   3838.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  85.30 56.80  0.01  30.05   3868.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  85.60 55.50  0.00  29.55   3898.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  86.90 55.50  0.00  30.20   3928.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  87.30 56.20  0.02  30.75   3959.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  87.50 54.80  0.00  30.15   3989.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  88.50 56.90  0.00  31.70   4020.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  88.40 57.40  0.00  31.90   4052.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  85.80 56.80  0.00  30.30   4083.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  82.10 55.20  0.00  27.65   4110.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  81.10 53.20  0.01  26.15   4136.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  83.30 52.70  0.00  27.00   4163.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  83.70 53.00  0.00  27.35   4191.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  83.10 51.90  0.00  26.50   4217.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  82.90 53.70  0.01  27.30   4245.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  83.80 53.50  0.04  27.65   4272.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  81.00 53.00  0.01  26.00   4298.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 51.60  0.00  25.45   4324.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  82.80 52.00  0.00  26.40   4350.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  83.00 52.70  0.00  26.85   4377.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  81.50 50.80  0.00  25.15   4402.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  83.90 49.50  0.00  25.70   4428.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  87.50 50.70  0.00  28.10   4456.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  85.20 52.00  0.00  27.60   4483.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  81.50 51.50  0.00  25.50   4509.4  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf
DD accumulation on 5-23-17: 1011 QA 96% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 21 days behind 2016 ok
 16 days behind 2015 ok
 2 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-17-17 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-21-17 951peak female adult emergence
 5-23-17 1011peak egg laying
 6-3-17 1280peak egg hatch
 7-3-17 2100peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)