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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.80 26.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *Hx Hn
1 2 21.10 16.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn
1 3 23.20 11.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vx Vn
1 4 28.00 23.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 Vn
1 5 30.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 35.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 38.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 9 39.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 10 38.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 11 37.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 12 37.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 13 42.00 31.00 0.00 0.13 0.1
1 14 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 2.4
1 15 39.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 2.4
1 16 38.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2.4
1 17 38.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 2.4
1 18 37.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2.4
1 19 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 2.4
1 20 53.00 36.00 0.00 4.69 7.1
1 21 45.00 38.00 0.00 1.38 8.5
1 22 59.00 34.00 0.00 7.12 15.6
1 23 51.00 36.00 0.00 3.77 19.4
1 24 54.00 30.00 0.00 4.33 23.7
1 25 43.00 22.00 0.00 0.26 24.0
1 26 40.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 24.0
1 27 46.00 32.00 0.00 1.32 25.3
1 28 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 29.9
1 29 51.00 33.00 0.00 3.38 33.3
1 30 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 36.4
1 31 47.00 22.00 0.00 1.28 37.7
2 1 48.00 19.00 0.00 1.50 39.2
2 2 43.00 20.00 0.00 0.25 39.5
2 3 40.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 39.5
2 4 52.00 27.00 0.00 3.26 42.7
2 5 52.00 28.00 0.00 3.33 46.1
2 6 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 48.8
2 7 50.00 23.00 0.00 2.29 51.1
2 8 53.00 25.00 0.00 3.50 54.6
2 9 54.00 25.00 0.00 3.89 58.5
2 10 51.00 25.00 0.00 2.75 61.3
2 11 51.00 37.00 0.00 3.94 65.2
2 12 53.00 37.00 0.00 4.87 70.1
2 13 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 74.5
2 14 62.00 44.00 0.00 12.00 86.5
2 15 65.00 51.00 0.00 17.00 103.5
2 16 63.00 44.00 0.00 12.50 116.0
2 17 58.00 44.00 0.00 10.00 126.0
2 18 56.00 43.00 0.00 8.50 134.5
2 19 55.00 42.00 0.00 7.50 142.0
2 20 54.00 31.00 0.00 4.44 146.4
2 21 47.00 22.00 0.00 1.28 147.7
2 22 54.00 23.00 0.00 3.75 151.4
2 23 53.00 23.00 0.00 3.37 154.8
2 24 56.00 29.00 0.00 5.07 159.9
2 25 58.00 26.00 0.00 5.60 165.5
2 26 56.00 29.00 0.00 5.07 170.6
2 27 65.00 40.00 0.00 11.58 182.2
2 28 61.00 38.00 0.00 8.97 191.1
2 29 57.00 34.00 0.00 6.19 197.3
3 1 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 202.2
3 2 57.00 44.00 0.00 9.50 211.7
3 3 65.00 36.00 0.00 10.40 222.0
3 4 63.00 31.00 0.00 8.46 230.5
3 5 63.00 41.00 0.00 11.00 241.5
3 6 61.00 36.00 0.00 8.47 250.0
3 7 60.00 35.00 0.00 7.78 257.8
3 8 52.00 28.00 0.00 3.33 261.1
3 9 50.00 35.00 0.00 3.19 264.3
3 10 62.00 37.00 0.00 9.19 273.5
3 11 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 276.2
3 12 53.00 38.00 0.00 5.08 281.3
3 13 57.00 36.00 0.00 6.56 287.9
3 14 56.00 39.00 0.00 6.79 294.7
3 15 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 299.5
3 16 59.00 25.00 0.00 5.92 305.4
3 17 55.00 32.00 0.00 5.00 310.4
3 18 59.00 25.00 0.00 5.92 316.3
3 19 58.00 32.00 0.00 6.34 322.7
3 20 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 332.7
3 21 64.00 38.00 0.00 10.44 343.1
3 22 63.00 44.00 0.00 12.50 355.6
3 23 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 363.7
3 24 60.00 37.00 0.00 8.22 371.9
3 25 60.00 29.00 0.00 6.81 378.7
3 26 62.00 30.00 0.00 7.84 386.5
3 27 61.00 38.00 0.00 8.97 395.5
3 28 57.00 34.00 0.00 6.19 401.7
3 29 68.00 28.00 0.00 10.26 412.0
3 30 70.00 33.00 0.00 12.12 424.1
3 31 74.00 33.00 0.00 14.03 438.1
4 1 78.00 35.00 0.00 16.46 454.6
4 2 79.00 38.00 0.00 17.85 472.4
4 3 75.00 36.00 0.00 15.27 487.7
4 4 64.00 46.00 0.00 14.00 501.7
4 5 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 512.6
4 6 72.00 32.00 0.00 12.86 525.5
4 7 82.00 39.00 0.00 19.68 545.2
4 8 84.00 41.00 0.00 21.50 566.7
4 9 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 589.7
4 10 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 610.2
4 11 77.00 43.00 0.00 19.00 629.2
4 12 71.00 52.00 0.00 20.50 649.7
4 13 64.00 41.00 0.00 11.50 661.2
4 14 62.00 40.00 0.00 10.09 671.2
4 15 67.00 39.00 0.00 12.23 683.5
4 16 70.00 33.00 0.00 12.12 695.6
4 17 79.00 35.00 0.00 16.95 712.5
4 18 84.00 39.00 0.00 20.68 733.2
4 19 86.00 38.00 0.00 21.32 754.5
4 20 89.00 41.00 0.00 24.00 778.5
4 21 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 805.5
4 22 79.00 49.00 0.00 23.00 828.5
4 23 76.00 48.00 0.00 21.00 849.5
4 24 70.00 47.00 0.00 17.50 867.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 25 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 879.2
4 26 70.00 36.00 0.00 12.83 892.0
4 27 67.00 45.00 0.00 15.00 907.0
4 28 75.00 44.00 0.00 18.50 925.5
4 29 66.00 50.00 0.00 17.00 942.5
4 30 74.00 49.00 0.00 20.50 963.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 1 79.00 43.00 0.00 20.00 983.0
5 2 88.00 42.00 0.00 24.00 1007.0 Peak egg laying
5 3 90.00 45.00 0.00 26.50 1033.5
5 4 83.00 61.00 0.00 31.00 1064.5
5 5 74.00 56.00 0.00 24.00 1088.5
5 6 86.00 58.00 0.00 31.00 1119.5
5 7 89.00 58.00 0.00 32.50 1152.0
5 8 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1179.0
5 9 72.00 47.00 0.00 18.50 1197.5
5 10 76.00 40.00 0.00 17.07 1214.6
5 11 83.00 43.00 0.00 22.00 1236.6
5 12 89.00 45.00 0.00 26.00 1262.6
5 13 86.00 56.00 0.00 30.00 1292.6 Peak egg hatch
5 14 67.00 55.00 0.00 20.00 1312.6
5 15 64.00 55.00 0.00 18.50 1331.1
5 16 75.00 49.00 0.00 21.00 1352.1
5 17 83.00 46.00 0.00 23.50 1375.6
5 18 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1402.6
5 19 69.00 48.00 0.00 17.50 1420.1
5 20 71.00 40.00 0.00 14.58 1434.6
5 21 70.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 1455.6
5 22 75.00 53.00 0.00 23.00 1478.6
5 23 74.00 50.00 0.00 21.00 1499.6
5 24 78.00 43.00 0.00 19.50 1519.1
5 25 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 1545.1
5 26 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1567.6
5 27 70.00 46.00 0.00 17.00 1584.6
5 28 76.00 43.00 0.00 18.50 1603.1
5 29 80.00 46.00 0.00 22.00 1625.1
5 30 78.00 44.00 0.00 20.00 1645.1
5 31 87.00 45.00 0.00 25.00 1670.1
6 1 91.00 51.00 0.00 30.00 1700.1
6 2 83.00 66.00 0.00 33.50 1733.6
6 3 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 1764.1
6 4 99.00 55.00 0.00 36.00 1800.1
6 5 102.00 57.00 0.00 38.50 1838.6
6 6 105.00 61.00 0.00 42.00 1880.6
6 7 101.00 66.00 0.00 42.50 1923.1
6 8 85.00 64.00 0.00 33.50 1956.6
6 9 82.00 48.00 0.00 24.00 1980.6
6 10 75.00 55.00 0.00 24.00 2004.6
6 11 76.00 48.00 0.00 21.00 2025.6
6 12 81.00 44.00 0.00 21.50 2047.1
6 13 79.00 56.00 0.00 26.50 2073.6 Peak in density large larvae
6 14 70.00 49.00 0.00 18.50 2092.1
6 15 71.00 38.00 0.00 13.89 2106.0
6 16 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 2126.0
6 17 80.00 39.00 0.00 18.69 2144.7
6 18 69.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 2165.7
6 19 76.00 43.00 0.00 18.50 2184.2
6 20 87.00 59.00 0.00 32.00 2216.2
6 21 83.00 61.00 0.00 31.00 2247.2
6 22 89.00 51.00 0.00 29.00 2276.2
6 23 84.00 63.00 0.00 32.50 2308.7
6 24 78.00 56.00 0.00 26.00 2334.7
6 25 83.00 51.00 0.00 26.00 2360.7
6 26 92.00 53.00 0.00 31.50 2392.2
6 27 98.00 58.00 0.00 37.00 2429.2
6 28 99.00 63.00 0.00 40.00 2469.2
6 29 99.00 62.00 0.00 39.50 2508.7
6 30 96.00 63.00 0.00 38.50 2547.2
7 1 94.00 55.00 0.00 33.50 2580.7
7 2 94.00 64.00 0.00 38.00 2618.7
7 3 88.00 60.00 0.00 33.00 2651.7
7 4 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 2678.7
7 5 82.00 51.00 0.00 25.50 2704.2
7 6 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 2732.7
7 7 84.00 57.00 0.00 29.50 2762.2
7 8 82.00 60.00 0.00 30.00 2792.2
7 9 83.00 59.00 0.00 30.00 2822.2
7 10 76.00 59.00 0.00 26.50 2848.7
7 11 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 2877.7
7 12 85.00 59.00 0.00 31.00 2908.7
7 13 86.00 58.00 0.00 31.00 2939.7
7 14 94.00 53.00 0.00 32.50 2972.2
7 15 87.00 57.00 0.00 31.00 3003.2
7 16 87.00 59.00 0.00 32.00 3035.2
7 17 89.00 64.00 0.00 35.50 3070.7
7 18 82.00 63.00 0.00 31.50 3102.2
7 19 82.00 60.00 0.00 30.00 3132.2
7 20 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 3162.7
7 21 99.00 54.00 0.00 35.50 3198.2
7 22 86.00 68.00 0.00 36.00 3234.2
7 23 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 3263.7
7 24 94.00 54.00 0.00 33.00 3296.7
7 25 100.00 59.00 0.00 38.50 3335.2
7 26 99.00 73.00 0.00 45.00 3380.2
7 27 100.00 66.00 0.00 42.00 3422.2
7 28 102.00 64.00 0.00 42.00 3464.2
7 29 105.00 64.00 0.00 43.50 3507.7
7 30 101.00 66.00 0.00 42.50 3550.2
7 31 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 3582.7
8 1 92.00 59.00 0.00 34.50 3617.2
8 2 84.00 56.00 0.00 29.00 3646.2
8 3 87.00 57.00 0.00 31.00 3677.2
8 4 95.00 54.00 0.00 33.50 3710.7
8 5 98.00 55.00 0.00 35.50 3746.2
8 6 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 3781.2
8 7 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 3810.2
8 8 79.00 56.00 0.00 26.50 3836.7
8 9 81.00 56.00 0.00 27.50 3864.2
8 10 87.00 58.00 0.00 31.50 3895.7
8 11 92.00 56.00 0.00 33.00 3928.7
8 12 97.00 55.00 0.00 35.00 3963.7
8 13 100.00 57.00 0.00 37.50 4001.2
8 14 100.00 59.00 0.00 38.50 4039.7
8 15 99.00 59.00 0.00 38.00 4077.7
8 16 99.00 57.00 0.00 37.00 4114.7
8 17 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 4155.2
8 18 101.00 71.00 0.00 45.00 4200.2
8 19 92.00 62.00 0.00 36.00 4236.2
8 20 97.00 50.00 0.00 32.50 4268.7
8 21 101.00 55.00 0.00 37.00 4305.7
8 22 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 4333.2
8 23 86.00 51.00 0.00 27.50 4360.7
8 24 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 4393.2
8 25 92.00 54.00 0.00 32.00 4425.2
8 26 94.00 51.00 0.00 31.50 4456.7
8 27 94.00 60.00 0.00 36.00 4492.7
8 28 90.00 54.00 0.00 31.00 4523.7
8 29 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 4557.7
8 30 84.00 61.00 0.00 31.50 4589.2
8 31 88.00 51.00 0.00 28.50 4617.7
9 1 76.00 56.00 0.00 25.00 4642.7
9 2 78.00 55.00 0.00 25.50 4668.2
9 3 77.00 44.00 0.00 19.50 4687.7
9 4 80.00 41.00 0.00 19.50 4707.2
9 5 78.00 46.00 0.00 21.00 4728.2
9 6 71.00 56.00 0.00 22.50 4750.7
9 7 80.00 47.00 0.00 22.50 4773.2
9 8 83.00 55.00 0.00 28.00 4801.2
9 9 80.00 45.00 0.00 21.50 4822.7
9 10 92.00 42.00 0.00 26.00 4848.7
9 11 80.00 59.00 0.00 28.50 4877.2
9 12 76.00 52.00 0.00 23.00 4900.2
9 13 78.00 45.00 0.00 20.50 4920.7
9 14 83.00 34.00 0.00 18.64 4939.3
9 15 86.00 41.00 0.00 22.50 4961.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-24-16 | 867 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-30-16 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-2-16 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-13-16 | 1293 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-13-16 | 2074 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2900363)
