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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 28.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 28.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 31.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 32.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 51.00 35.00 0.00 3.63 3.6
1 6 46.00 31.00 0.00 1.27 4.9
1 7 41.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 4.9
1 8 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 4.9
1 9 36.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 4.9
1 10 37.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 4.9
1 11 40.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 4.9
1 12 42.00 33.00 0.00 0.14 5.0
1 13 37.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 5.0
1 14 37.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 5.0
1 15 40.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 5.0
1 16 51.00 28.00 0.00 2.94 8.0
1 17 35.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 8.0
1 18 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 14.6
1 19 57.00 31.00 0.00 5.75 20.4
1 20 47.00 24.00 0.00 1.34 21.7
1 21 31.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 21.7
1 22 36.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 21.7
1 23 37.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 21.7
1 24 45.00 31.00 0.00 0.94 22.7
1 25 39.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 22.7
1 26 42.00 31.00 0.00 0.13 22.8
1 27 39.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 22.8
1 28 38.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 22.8
1 29 41.00 37.00 0.00 0.00 22.8
1 30 40.00 37.00 0.00 0.00 22.8
1 31 40.00 35.00 0.00 0.00 22.8
2 1 39.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 22.8
2 2 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 22.8
2 3 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 23.7
2 4 43.00 38.00 0.00 0.56 24.3
2 5 49.00 39.00 0.00 3.39 27.6
2 6 60.00 43.00 0.00 10.50 38.1
2 7 66.00 46.00 0.00 15.00 53.1
2 8 57.00 43.00 0.00 9.00 62.1
2 9 53.00 38.00 0.00 5.08 67.2
2 10 63.00 39.00 0.00 10.25 77.5
2 11 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 82.6
2 12 60.00 36.00 0.00 7.99 90.6
2 13 58.00 32.00 0.00 6.34 96.9
2 14 62.00 33.00 0.00 8.34 105.3
2 15 58.00 30.00 0.00 6.06 111.3
2 16 55.00 28.00 0.00 4.55 115.9
2 17 57.00 24.00 0.00 5.00 120.9
2 18 55.00 26.00 0.00 4.37 125.3
2 19 58.00 31.00 0.00 6.19 131.5
2 20 61.00 30.00 0.00 7.39 138.9
2 21 55.00 32.00 0.00 5.00 143.8
2 22 50.00 24.00 0.00 2.34 146.2
2 23 50.00 15.00 0.00 1.99 148.2
2 24 55.00 24.00 0.00 4.21 152.4
2 25 56.00 24.00 0.00 4.60 157.0
2 26 58.00 43.00 0.00 9.50 166.5
2 27 57.00 39.00 0.00 7.29 173.8
2 28 53.00 25.00 0.00 3.50 177.3
3 1 53.00 16.00 0.00 3.01 180.3
3 2 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 183.2
3 3 49.00 25.00 0.00 2.03 185.3
3 4 56.00 16.00 0.00 4.07 189.3
3 5 57.00 20.00 0.00 4.69 194.0
3 6 65.00 25.00 0.00 8.49 202.5
3 7 67.00 26.00 0.00 9.51 212.0
3 8 68.00 26.00 0.00 9.96 222.0
3 9 73.00 28.00 0.00 12.56 234.6
3 10 71.00 29.00 0.00 11.81 246.4
3 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 264.4
3 12 71.00 44.00 0.00 16.50 280.9
3 13 67.00 35.00 0.00 11.12 292.0
3 14 73.00 49.00 0.00 20.00 312.0
3 15 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 325.5
3 16 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 333.5
3 17 61.00 48.00 0.00 13.50 347.0
3 18 65.00 35.00 0.00 10.16 357.2
3 19 66.00 32.00 0.00 10.02 367.2
3 20 63.00 35.00 0.00 9.21 376.4
3 21 64.00 40.00 0.00 11.09 387.5
3 22 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 395.2
3 23 60.00 44.00 0.00 11.00 406.2
3 24 62.00 42.00 0.00 11.00 417.2
3 25 60.70 40.00 0.00 9.44 426.7 Hx
3 26 73.00 44.00 0.00 17.50 444.2
3 27 77.00 42.00 0.00 18.50 462.7
3 28 67.00 42.00 0.00 13.50 476.2
3 29 73.00 38.00 0.00 14.88 491.0
3 30 71.00 37.00 0.00 13.59 504.6
3 31 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 518.1
4 1 59.00 35.00 0.00 7.31 525.4
4 2 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 533.5
4 3 65.00 30.00 0.00 9.21 542.7
4 4 60.00 29.00 0.00 6.81 549.5
4 5 52.00 25.00 0.00 3.12 552.6
4 6 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 561.9
4 7 65.00 41.00 0.00 12.00 573.9
4 8 66.00 45.00 0.00 14.50 588.4
4 9 67.00 37.00 0.00 11.63 600.0
4 10 70.00 32.00 0.00 11.91 611.9
4 11 62.00 44.00 0.00 12.00 623.9
4 12 61.00 36.00 0.00 8.47 632.4
4 13 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 642.6
4 14 61.00 43.00 0.00 11.00 653.6
4 15 63.00 33.00 0.00 8.80 662.4
4 16 70.00 27.00 0.00 11.01 673.4
4 17 77.00 30.00 0.00 14.82 688.2
4 18 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 708.2
4 19 78.00 34.00 0.00 16.20 724.4
4 20 81.00 36.00 0.00 18.21 742.6
4 21 83.00 39.00 0.00 20.18 762.8
4 22 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 777.3
4 23 63.00 32.00 0.00 8.62 785.9
4 24 63.00 40.00 0.00 10.59 796.5
4 25 65.00 33.00 0.00 9.74 806.2
4 26 68.00 27.00 0.00 10.11 816.4
4 27 78.00 40.00 0.00 18.07 834.4
4 28 86.00 39.00 0.00 21.68 856.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 29 71.00 41.00 0.00 15.00 871.1
4 30 74.00 36.00 0.00 14.78 885.9
5 1 85.00 45.00 0.00 24.00 909.9
5 2 75.00 40.00 0.00 16.57 926.4
5 3 79.00 34.00 0.00 16.69 943.1
5 4 85.00 36.00 0.00 20.18 963.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 5 71.00 45.00 0.00 17.00 980.3
5 6 68.00 31.00 0.00 10.77 991.1
5 7 76.00 46.00 0.00 20.00 1011.1 Peak egg laying
5 8 80.00 44.00 0.00 21.00 1032.1
5 9 82.00 44.00 0.00 22.00 1054.1
5 10 83.00 39.00 0.00 20.18 1074.3
5 11 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 1098.8
5 12 67.00 52.00 0.00 18.50 1117.3
5 13 59.00 47.00 0.00 12.00 1129.3
5 14 71.00 40.00 0.00 14.58 1143.9
5 15 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 1165.4
5 16 80.00 55.00 0.00 26.50 1191.9
5 17 75.00 49.00 0.00 21.00 1212.9
5 18 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 1238.4
5 19 85.00 57.00 0.00 30.00 1268.4
5 20 85.00 58.00 0.00 30.50 1298.9 Peak egg hatch
5 21 88.00 56.00 0.00 31.00 1329.9
5 22 85.00 60.00 0.00 31.50 1361.4
5 23 83.00 58.00 0.00 29.50 1390.9
5 24 85.00 55.00 0.00 29.00 1419.9
5 25 80.00 60.00 0.00 29.00 1448.9
5 26 78.00 53.00 0.00 24.50 1473.4
5 27 83.00 56.00 0.00 28.50 1501.9
5 28 89.00 55.00 0.00 31.00 1532.9
5 29 93.00 58.00 0.00 34.50 1567.4
5 30 92.00 67.00 0.00 38.50 1605.9
5 31 90.00 62.00 0.00 35.00 1640.9
6 1 88.00 62.00 0.00 34.00 1674.9
6 2 79.00 60.00 0.00 28.50 1703.4
6 3 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1728.4
6 4 82.30 55.40 0.00 27.85 1756.2 Vx Vn
6 5 88.60 57.80 0.00 32.20 1788.4 Vx Vn
6 6 93.40 60.30 0.00 35.85 1824.3 Vx Vn
6 7 99.90 65.80 0.00 41.85 1866.1 Vx Vn
6 8 101.40 65.80 0.00 42.60 1908.7 Vx Vn
6 9 97.70 68.10 0.00 41.90 1950.6 Vx Vn
6 10 96.10 63.80 0.00 38.95 1989.6 Vx Vn
6 11 94.60 63.70 0.00 38.15 2027.7 Vx Vn
6 12 85.50 62.20 0.00 32.85 2060.6 Vx Vn
6 13 79.20 52.40 0.00 24.80 2085.4 Vx Vn Peak in density large larvae
6 14 85.80 50.10 0.00 26.95 2112.3 Vx Vn
6 15 90.50 54.90 0.00 31.70 2144.0 Vx Vn
6 16 94.40 61.00 0.00 36.70 2180.7 Vx Vn
6 17 92.00 61.80 0.00 35.90 2216.6 Vx Vn
6 18 94.00 61.00 0.00 36.50 2253.1
6 19 85.00 59.00 0.00 31.00 2284.1
6 20 86.00 51.00 0.00 27.50 2311.6
6 21 87.00 66.00 0.00 35.50 2347.1
6 22 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 2380.1
6 23 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 2415.1
6 24 92.00 65.00 0.00 37.50 2452.6
6 25 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 2490.6
6 26 105.00 60.00 0.00 41.50 2532.1
6 27 110.00 64.00 0.00 46.00 2578.1
6 28 113.00 71.00 0.00 51.00 2629.1
6 29 101.00 79.00 0.00 49.00 2678.1
6 30 102.00 72.00 0.00 46.00 2724.1
7 1 102.00 72.00 0.00 46.00 2770.1
7 2 105.00 65.00 0.00 44.00 2814.1
7 3 107.00 70.00 0.00 47.50 2861.6
7 4 105.00 73.00 0.00 48.00 2909.6
7 5 101.00 78.00 0.00 48.50 2958.1
7 6 102.00 70.00 0.00 45.00 3003.1
7 7 102.00 66.00 0.00 43.00 3046.1
7 8 103.00 72.00 0.00 46.50 3092.6
7 9 104.00 62.00 0.00 42.00 3134.6
7 10 99.00 75.00 0.00 46.00 3180.6
7 11 91.00 68.00 0.00 38.50 3219.1
7 12 91.00 59.00 0.00 34.00 3253.1
7 13 89.00 62.00 0.00 34.50 3287.6
7 14 92.00 60.00 0.00 35.00 3322.6
7 15 93.00 62.00 0.00 36.50 3359.1
7 16 88.00 61.00 0.00 33.50 3392.6
7 17 91.00 58.00 0.00 33.50 3426.1
7 18 96.00 67.00 0.00 40.50 3466.6
7 19 103.00 59.00 0.00 40.00 3506.6
7 20 102.00 71.00 0.00 45.50 3552.1
7 21 93.00 56.00 0.00 33.50 3585.6
7 22 87.00 55.00 0.00 30.00 3615.6
7 23 91.00 58.00 0.00 33.50 3649.1
7 24 93.00 58.00 0.00 34.50 3683.6
7 25 86.00 63.00 0.00 33.50 3717.1
7 26 81.00 54.00 0.00 26.50 3743.6
7 27 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 3771.1
7 28 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 3799.1
7 29 96.00 52.00 0.00 33.00 3832.1
7 30 104.00 55.00 0.00 38.50 3870.6
7 31 106.00 57.00 0.00 40.50 3911.1
8 1 105.00 63.00 0.00 43.00 3954.1
8 2 104.00 60.00 0.00 41.00 3995.1
8 3 93.00 71.00 0.00 41.00 4036.1
8 4 96.00 63.00 0.00 38.50 4074.6
8 5 90.00 54.00 0.00 31.00 4105.6
8 6 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 4132.6
8 7 91.00 52.00 0.00 30.50 4163.1
8 8 96.00 57.00 0.00 35.50 4198.6
8 9 89.00 63.00 0.00 35.00 4233.6
8 10 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 4268.6
8 11 101.00 60.00 0.00 39.50 4308.1
8 12 104.00 66.00 0.00 44.00 4352.1
8 13 103.00 71.00 0.00 46.00 4398.1
8 14 91.00 69.00 0.00 39.00 4437.1
8 15 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 4466.6
8 16 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 4493.6
8 17 91.00 54.00 0.00 31.50 4525.1
8 18 94.00 54.00 0.00 33.00 4558.1
8 19 98.00 59.00 0.00 37.50 4595.6
8 20 96.00 60.00 0.00 37.00 4632.6
8 21 85.00 58.00 0.00 30.50 4663.1
8 22 84.00 58.00 0.00 30.00 4693.1
8 23 89.00 46.00 0.00 26.50 4719.6
8 24 92.00 55.00 0.00 32.50 4752.1
8 25 90.00 58.00 0.00 33.00 4785.1
8 26 95.00 54.00 0.00 33.50 4818.6
8 27 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 4856.6
8 28 88.00 66.00 0.00 36.00 4892.6
8 29 81.90 61.00 0.00 30.45 4923.1 Vx
8 30 78.00 55.00 0.00 25.50 4948.6
8 31 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 4975.6
9 1 84.00 56.00 0.00 29.00 5004.6
9 2 79.00 62.00 0.00 29.50 5034.1
9 3 74.00 45.00 0.00 18.50 5052.6
9 4 73.00 42.00 0.00 16.50 5069.1
9 5 76.00 53.00 0.00 23.50 5092.6
9 6 70.00 49.00 0.00 18.50 5111.1
9 7 76.00 46.00 0.00 20.00 5131.1
9 8 82.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 5153.6
9 9 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 5181.6
9 10 91.00 48.00 0.00 28.50 5210.1
9 11 93.00 50.00 0.00 30.50 5240.6
9 12 94.00 50.00 0.00 31.00 5271.6
9 13 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 5302.1
9 14 69.00 50.00 0.00 18.50 5320.6
9 15 66.00 37.00 0.00 11.14 5331.7
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-28-15 | 856 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-4-15 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-7-15 | 1011 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-20-15 | 1299 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-13-15 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1268433)
