Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.60 29.60 0.01 1.41 1.4 * START * 1 2 43.60 28.40 0.00 0.46 1.9 1 3 45.20 32.00 0.00 1.04 2.9 1 4 46.50 32.40 0.14 1.52 4.4 1 5 48.20 40.50 0.38 3.40 7.8 1 6 46.90 37.90 0.02 2.20 10.1 1 7 44.30 39.10 0.20 1.21 11.3 1 8 44.30 38.90 0.10 1.18 12.4 1 9 50.20 40.70 0.35 4.47 16.9 1 10 47.00 38.40 0.07 2.33 19.2 1 11 56.30 47.20 1.01 10.75 30.0 1 12 51.60 47.30 0.00 8.45 38.4 1 13 63.40 40.10 0.00 10.83 49.3 1 14 59.70 38.80 0.01 8.56 57.8 1 15 56.00 38.30 0.11 6.60 64.4 1 16 55.70 42.20 0.15 7.95 72.4 1 17 53.30 40.90 0.23 6.10 78.5 1 18 50.00 41.40 0.27 4.70 83.2 1 19 47.30 40.50 0.06 2.96 86.1 1 20 47.50 40.60 0.04 3.09 89.2 1 21 49.70 43.50 0.25 5.60 94.8 1 22 50.20 39.40 0.29 4.07 98.9 1 23 49.40 38.90 0.79 3.56 102.4 1 24 48.90 38.20 0.63 3.18 105.6 1 25 48.50 38.10 0.50 2.97 108.6 1 26 44.30 38.00 0.56 1.08 109.7 1 27 54.00 41.70 0.18 6.85 116.5 1 28 59.60 47.00 0.04 12.30 128.8 1 29 51.30 45.30 0.46 7.30 136.1 1 30 49.10 37.20 0.08 3.09 139.2 1 31 45.50 36.10 0.00 1.40 140.6 2 1 47.20 40.60 0.12 2.94 143.6 2 2 60.60 43.50 0.00 11.05 154.6 2 3 57.00 45.30 0.01 10.15 164.8 2 4 61.20 47.90 0.00 13.55 178.3 2 5 58.00 39.30 0.00 7.87 186.2 2 6 50.00 32.80 0.00 2.94 189.1 2 7 55.20 35.60 0.00 5.64 194.8 2 8 52.30 39.20 0.00 5.04 199.8 2 9 49.50 38.10 0.00 3.44 203.2 2 10 50.00 29.70 0.01 2.68 205.9 2 11 49.10 32.20 0.00 2.52 208.4 2 12 47.20 29.90 0.00 1.64 210.1 2 13 51.00 24.60 0.00 2.73 212.8 2 14 49.20 35.20 0.18 2.86 215.6 2 15 49.90 33.90 0.01 3.01 218.7 2 16 52.50 39.60 0.01 5.25 223.9 2 17 52.70 39.50 0.04 5.32 229.2 2 18 40.00 31.70 0.44 0.00 229.2 2 19 39.90 29.50 0.00 0.00 229.2 2 20 37.00 26.90 0.18 0.00 229.2 2 21 36.30 27.10 0.15 0.00 229.2 2 22 39.50 27.50 0.15 0.00 229.2 2 23 37.20 21.50 0.11 0.00 229.2 2 24 48.30 32.60 0.28 2.23 231.5 2 25 45.30 32.90 0.35 1.12 232.6 2 26 45.80 31.50 0.02 1.22 233.8 2 27 44.70 30.60 0.01 0.83 234.6 2 28 45.10 40.00 0.45 1.74 236.4 3 1 45.50 33.90 0.16 1.24 237.6 3 2 49.10 34.30 0.10 2.72 240.3 3 3 50.90 35.30 0.05 3.62 243.9 3 4 50.30 27.90 0.01 2.67 246.6 3 5 50.80 34.80 0.02 3.51 250.1 3 6 55.50 28.30 0.00 4.79 254.9 3 7 52.50 34.10 0.00 4.17 259.1 3 8 57.00 38.70 0.46 7.20 266.3 3 9 53.40 38.10 0.00 5.30 271.6 3 10 60.00 29.10 0.01 6.82 278.4 3 11 67.60 39.10 0.00 12.56 291.0 3 12 67.80 39.50 0.00 12.80 303.8 3 13 56.10 43.60 0.45 8.85 312.6 3 14 53.60 38.20 0.17 5.42 318.0 3 15 52.90 31.80 0.20 4.06 322.1 3 16 53.20 40.00 0.03 5.72 327.8 3 17 53.50 36.50 0.03 5.01 332.8 3 18 51.00 37.70 0.06 4.07 336.9 3 19 58.40 31.10 0.00 6.38 343.3 3 20 60.30 30.90 0.00 7.21 350.5 3 21 51.00 33.10 0.22 3.39 353.9 3 22 50.60 39.00 0.37 4.16 358.0 3 23 44.70 33.20 0.62 0.92 359.0 3 24 42.20 34.90 0.25 0.21 359.2 3 25 53.60 36.00 0.04 4.97 364.1 3 26 49.60 36.60 0.01 3.23 367.4 3 27 56.80 43.70 0.00 9.25 376.6 3 28 57.50 37.70 0.01 7.18 383.8 3 29 59.90 34.20 0.00 7.58 391.4 3 30 58.30 40.50 0.00 8.44 399.8 3 31 64.40 41.70 0.00 12.05 411.9 4 1 52.30 37.10 0.01 4.56 416.4 4 2 54.50 34.90 0.04 5.19 421.6 4 3 51.10 30.30 0.00 3.16 424.8 4 4 57.10 43.30 0.00 9.20 434.0 4 5 51.10 45.30 0.26 7.20 441.2 4 6 67.90 51.00 0.09 18.45 459.6 4 7 58.70 46.70 1.01 11.70 471.3 4 8 54.60 45.00 0.67 8.80 480.1 4 9 63.80 40.00 0.00 10.99 491.1 4 10 61.20 48.50 0.14 13.85 505.0 4 11 55.70 41.40 0.13 7.55 512.5 4 12 50.30 39.60 0.46 4.17 516.7 4 13 53.40 44.20 0.33 7.80 524.5 4 14 56.90 48.10 0.11 11.50 536.0 4 15 48.70 42.60 0.64 4.65 540.6 4 16 49.50 40.30 0.11 3.98 544.6 4 17 54.90 37.00 0.04 5.77 550.4 4 18 61.50 40.40 0.00 9.99 560.4 4 19 66.10 38.20 0.00 11.53 571.9 4 20 64.50 37.00 0.00 10.41 582.3 4 21 60.40 43.10 0.00 10.75 593.1 4 22 63.70 39.50 0.00 10.76 603.8 4 23 71.70 39.20 0.00 14.63 618.4 4 24 76.80 44.60 0.00 19.70 638.1 4 25 83.50 46.70 0.00 24.10 662.2 4 26 84.90 50.20 0.00 26.55 688.8 4 27 55.00 48.30 0.11 10.65 699.4 4 28 60.10 43.90 0.35 11.00 710.4 4 29 59.40 44.60 0.11 11.00 721.4 4 30 57.20 45.60 0.05 10.40 731.8 5 1 59.30 46.00 0.00 11.65 743.5 5 2 73.10 42.40 0.00 16.75 760.2 5 3 76.40 45.10 0.00 19.75 780.0 5 4 66.80 49.10 0.00 16.95 796.9 5 5 74.30 51.30 0.00 21.80 818.7 5 6 71.60 51.30 0.00 20.45 839.2 5 7 76.50 52.20 0.00 23.35 862.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 8 77.20 49.00 0.01 22.10 884.6 5 9 68.20 53.40 0.00 19.80 904.4 5 10 62.90 47.50 0.10 14.20 918.6 5 11 69.90 40.40 0.00 14.19 932.8 5 12 80.50 48.90 0.00 23.70 956.5 peak female adult emergence 5 13 88.30 49.80 0.00 28.05 984.6 5 14 88.90 53.80 0.00 30.35 1014.9 peak egg laying 5 15 70.60 53.70 0.00 21.15 1036.1 5 16 68.20 54.70 0.00 20.45 1056.5 5 17 66.80 53.60 0.00 19.20 1075.7 5 18 64.80 50.70 0.00 16.75 1092.5 5 19 71.30 51.90 0.00 20.60 1113.1
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1113QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 13 days behind 2016 ok
 14 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for FOGO data
  5 20  68.80 43.80  0.00  15.30   1128.4  0.00_7.07%_precip.    
  5 21  73.00 41.30  0.00  16.15   1144.5  0.00_8.34%_precip.    
  5 22  80.10 46.70  0.00  22.40   1166.9  0.00_13.56%_precip.    
  5 23  81.90 52.10  0.00  26.00   1192.9  0.00_17.00%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg FOGO 2006-2015
  5 24  63.40 45.80  0.14  13.60   1206.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  66.90 46.80  0.10  15.85   1222.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  66.40 47.40  0.10  15.90   1238.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.70 48.30  0.08  16.00   1254.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  66.00 47.40  0.08  15.70   1270.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  66.60 47.90  0.04  16.25   1286.2  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  5 30  70.20 48.10  0.02  18.15   1304.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  74.50 49.10  0.03  20.80   1325.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  73.90 51.00  0.04  21.45   1346.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  69.60 50.80  0.12  19.20   1365.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.30 49.40  0.09  18.85   1384.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  71.70 49.90  0.10  19.80   1404.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  72.50 50.90  0.10  20.70   1425.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  71.70 49.50  0.02  19.60   1444.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.50 50.20  0.12  19.85   1464.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  69.80 50.60  0.03  19.20   1483.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  71.50 49.00  0.02  19.25   1503.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.20 48.40  0.05  17.80   1520.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  68.10 48.90  0.02  17.50   1538.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  71.00 49.30  0.01  19.15   1557.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  70.80 49.90  0.05  19.35   1576.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  68.60 49.30  0.03  17.95   1594.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  68.40 49.00  0.00  17.70   1612.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  71.80 48.20  0.04  19.00   1631.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  71.20 48.80  0.01  19.00   1650.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  69.60 50.00  0.00  18.80   1669.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  69.70 49.60  0.05  18.65   1688.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  71.80 50.30  0.04  20.05   1708.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  72.90 49.80  0.01  20.35   1728.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.30 50.20  0.00  21.75   1750.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  73.10 49.90  0.02  20.50   1770.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  74.50 51.60  0.06  22.05   1792.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  75.80 51.50  0.02  22.65   1815.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  76.30 54.00  0.02  24.15   1839.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  78.60 53.30  0.04  24.95   1864.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  80.90 53.80  0.04  26.35   1890.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.00 55.30  0.04  26.15   1916.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  77.60 54.20  0.01  24.90   1941.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  80.70 53.40  0.01  26.05   1967.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  82.90 54.80  0.01  27.85   1995.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  83.50 54.60  0.02  28.05   2023.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  80.90 52.80  0.00  25.85   2049.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  80.70 53.10  0.00  25.90   2075.5  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  6  79.40 53.90  0.00  25.65   2101.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  80.30 53.10  0.00  25.70   2126.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  82.20 54.30  0.00  27.25   2154.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  85.10 55.30  0.00  29.20   2183.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  85.30 55.60  0.00  29.45   2212.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  82.30 54.90  0.00  27.60   2240.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.50 54.80  0.01  27.15   2267.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  78.60 55.20  0.03  25.90   2293.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  78.60 54.60  0.01  25.60   2319.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  83.20 55.40  0.00  28.30   2347.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  83.60 55.40  0.02  28.50   2375.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  82.70 54.50  0.02  27.60   2403.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  78.60 53.70  0.06  25.15   2428.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  78.50 53.40  0.01  24.95   2453.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  81.20 54.20  0.01  26.70   2480.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  80.00 54.50  0.01  26.25   2506.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.30 54.80  0.00  27.55   2534.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  78.10 55.50  0.01  25.80   2559.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  80.50 54.40  0.03  26.45   2586.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  84.30 54.40  0.00  28.35   2614.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  82.80 54.70  0.02  27.75   2642.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  83.00 54.20  0.00  27.60   2670.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  82.50 54.30  0.00  27.40   2697.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  83.90 55.30  0.00  28.60   2726.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  82.30 55.90  0.00  28.10   2754.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  82.90 54.50  0.00  27.70   2781.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  83.40 53.70  0.00  27.55   2809.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  83.00 55.80  0.00  28.40   2837.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  81.00 54.50  0.00  26.75   2864.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  83.10 54.10  0.00  27.60   2892.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.20 54.40  0.00  29.30   2921.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.40 55.30  0.00  28.85   2950.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  81.90 55.40  0.00  27.65   2977.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.30 55.10  0.00  26.70   3004.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  77.20 55.00  0.00  25.10   3029.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  77.70 53.80  0.00  24.75   3054.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  79.80 54.60  0.00  26.20   3080.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  81.90 55.30  0.06  27.60   3108.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.00 55.00  0.03  27.00   3135.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  82.70 55.50  0.01  28.10   3163.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  83.80 56.90  0.01  29.35   3192.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.30 56.80  0.00  29.05   3221.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 56.00  0.00  29.90   3251.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.90 56.10  0.00  30.00   3281.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  83.20 56.10  0.02  28.65   3310.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.40 55.60  0.05  28.00   3338.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.10 53.20  0.03  25.65   3363.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  78.30 53.10  0.00  24.70   3388.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  78.70 52.40  0.00  24.55   3413.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.80 52.30  0.00  25.05   3438.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  80.90 53.20  0.04  26.05   3464.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  81.30 52.20  0.01  25.75   3490.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  80.90 52.40  0.02  25.65   3515.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  82.80 53.90  0.01  27.35   3543.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  80.50 54.20  0.02  26.35   3569.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  75.70 54.10  0.07  23.90   3593.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.20 53.00  0.05  23.10   3616.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  75.10 50.30  0.02  21.70   3638.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  77.90 50.70  0.01  23.30   3661.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.20 50.50  0.01  24.35   3685.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  79.90 51.10  0.01  24.50   3710.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  78.20 51.70  0.01  23.95   3734.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  78.10 51.90  0.09  24.00   3758.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  78.70 51.60  0.08  24.15   3782.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.80 51.30  0.05  25.05   3807.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.60 51.80  0.00  24.70   3832.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  78.80 51.90  0.00  24.35   3856.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  82.80 51.10  0.00  25.95   3882.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.60 51.00  0.00  27.80   3910.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  82.50 51.90  0.00  26.20   3936.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  76.00 51.70  0.00  22.85   3959.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  75.60 51.00  0.01  22.30   3981.5  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1113 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 13 days behind 2016 ok
 14 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-7-18 863peak pheromone trap catch
 5-12-18 957peak female adult emergence
 5-14-18 1015peak egg laying
 5-29-18 1286peak egg hatch
 7-5-18 2076peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)