Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 36.40 29.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 34.80 24.70 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 31.10 21.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 36.00 31.30 0.51 0.00 0.0 1 5 38.00 29.60 0.15 0.00 0.0 1 6 43.70 27.10 0.03 0.47 0.5 1 7 43.00 32.80 0.00 0.38 0.9 1 8 42.10 28.80 0.01 0.14 1.0 1 9 42.40 32.00 0.09 0.22 1.2 1 10 49.30 30.40 0.00 2.46 3.7 1 11 42.40 29.80 0.21 0.20 3.9 1 12 44.10 40.30 1.55 1.33 5.2 1 13 50.60 38.90 1.12 4.13 9.3 1 14 44.80 39.30 0.38 1.46 10.8 1 15 47.60 41.90 0.02 3.75 14.5 1 16 50.90 42.60 0.81 5.75 20.3 1 17 48.30 41.60 0.66 3.95 24.2 1 18 50.80 44.00 0.20 6.40 30.6 1 19 45.80 44.10 0.47 3.95 34.6 1 20 46.80 39.30 0.36 2.40 37.0 1 21 50.70 44.00 0.26 6.35 43.3 1 22 57.60 45.60 0.38 10.60 53.9 1 23 51.10 41.30 0.18 5.20 59.1 1 24 47.70 36.00 0.02 2.31 61.5 1 25 55.60 42.70 0.00 8.15 69.6 1 26 52.00 46.50 0.08 8.25 77.9 1 27 58.10 48.90 0.05 12.50 90.4 1 28 58.00 42.60 0.51 9.30 99.7 1 29 51.60 39.90 0.66 4.89 104.5 1 30 45.60 36.00 0.22 1.43 106.0 1 31 40.00 34.30 0.07 0.00 106.0 2 1 44.60 35.30 0.01 0.99 107.0 2 2 46.80 33.70 0.00 1.72 108.7 2 3 45.70 40.10 0.33 2.06 110.7 2 4 54.10 42.60 0.53 7.35 118.1 2 5 50.50 35.80 0.17 3.52 121.6 2 6 50.70 36.30 0.00 3.68 125.3 2 7 60.70 40.20 0.01 9.52 134.8 2 8 65.30 35.50 0.00 10.42 145.2 2 9 62.90 36.30 0.01 9.45 154.7 2 10 56.60 38.90 0.00 7.06 161.7 2 11 53.10 48.20 0.24 9.65 171.4 2 12 60.30 44.10 0.18 11.20 182.6 2 13 49.60 42.10 0.43 4.85 187.4 2 14 57.50 47.70 0.14 11.60 199.0 2 15 59.80 49.70 0.00 13.75 212.8 2 16 52.90 47.60 0.02 9.25 222.0 2 17 57.90 46.00 0.09 10.95 233.0 2 18 47.60 42.10 0.55 3.85 236.8 2 19 48.40 40.10 0.50 3.38 240.2 2 20 50.00 36.40 0.01 3.38 243.6 2 21 50.20 32.00 0.16 2.95 246.6 2 22 49.00 35.60 0.05 2.82 249.4 2 23 58.20 31.40 0.02 6.34 255.7 2 24 60.10 40.60 0.00 9.37 265.1 Vn 2 25 63.60 35.30 0.00 9.56 274.6 2 26 56.20 40.10 0.29 7.24 281.9 2 27 57.90 45.60 0.10 10.75 292.6 2 28 54.20 42.60 0.19 7.40 300.0 2 29 49.90 41.50 0.41 4.70 304.7 3 1 56.90 44.70 0.42 9.80 314.5 3 2 53.50 41.30 0.22 6.40 320.9 3 3 60.70 42.30 0.10 10.50 331.4 3 4 56.40 37.90 0.01 6.70 338.1 3 5 60.00 48.20 0.48 13.10 351.2 3 6 53.30 44.00 0.49 7.65 358.9 3 7 53.50 39.20 0.03 5.62 364.5 3 8 44.20 32.90 0.20 0.75 365.3 3 9 55.80 44.40 0.96 9.10 374.4 3 10 55.10 42.80 0.42 7.95 382.3 3 11 50.90 37.60 0.16 4.00 386.3 3 12 48.40 41.60 0.58 4.00 390.3 3 13 52.00 41.90 0.78 5.95 396.3 3 14 48.80 39.50 0.94 3.41 399.7 3 15 46.50 39.10 0.25 2.22 401.9 3 16 57.10 41.30 0.08 8.20 410.1 3 17 58.60 33.80 0.00 6.90 417.0 3 18 60.60 46.20 0.00 12.40 429.4 3 19 64.10 45.80 0.00 13.95 443.3 3 20 58.00 46.20 0.21 11.10 454.4 3 21 51.50 44.50 0.24 7.00 461.4 3 22 56.70 43.00 0.03 8.85 470.3 3 23 53.40 44.70 0.05 8.05 478.3 3 24 54.00 42.10 0.12 7.05 485.4 3 25 55.20 38.20 0.00 6.19 491.6 3 26 56.70 37.80 0.02 6.82 498.4 3 27 53.00 40.60 0.05 5.83 504.2 3 28 57.00 32.70 0.00 5.99 510.2 3 29 65.40 36.40 0.01 10.69 520.9 3 30 74.00 35.60 0.00 14.67 535.6 3 31 72.20 39.60 0.00 15.02 550.6 4 1 76.10 43.30 0.00 18.70 569.3 4 2 68.70 44.80 0.00 15.75 585.0 4 3 69.40 41.60 0.18 14.50 599.5 4 4 58.40 42.80 0.07 9.60 609.1 4 5 59.10 41.60 0.00 9.35 618.5 4 6 74.90 37.10 0.00 15.54 634.0 4 7 84.50 45.30 0.00 23.90 657.9 4 8 82.50 50.00 0.00 25.25 683.2 4 9 65.80 46.50 0.00 15.15 698.3 4 10 60.90 47.90 0.00 13.40 711.7 4 11 60.70 48.90 0.00 13.80 725.5 4 12 57.00 46.50 0.13 10.75 736.3 4 13 57.60 42.90 0.24 9.25 745.5 4 14 55.40 43.20 0.31 8.30 753.8 4 15 60.00 35.20 0.01 7.82 761.7 4 16 70.70 39.80 0.00 14.35 776.0 4 17 78.90 43.80 0.00 20.35 796.4 4 18 87.60 49.00 0.00 27.30 823.7 4 19 86.50 51.50 0.00 28.00 851.7 peak pheromone trap catch 4 20 78.30 51.00 0.00 23.65 875.3 4 21 75.10 47.00 0.20 20.05 895.4 4 22 62.00 48.80 0.64 14.40 909.8 4 23 60.80 43.00 0.02 10.90 920.7 4 24 55.10 43.10 0.03 8.10 928.8 4 25 60.70 34.40 0.00 7.99 936.7 4 26 57.80 33.60 0.00 6.50 943.2 4 27 58.00 45.60 0.04 10.80 954.0 peak female adult emergence 4 28 61.10 41.10 0.00 10.10 964.1 4 29 62.20 48.30 0.07 14.25 978.4 4 30 68.60 37.00 0.00 12.41 990.8 5 1 78.00 46.30 0.00 21.15 1012.0 peak egg laying 5 2 83.40 47.60 0.00 24.50 1036.5 5 3 73.40 53.00 0.01 22.20 1058.7 5 4 62.80 50.90 0.00 15.85 1074.5 5 5 70.70 50.90 0.00 19.80 1094.3 5 6 81.40 52.00 0.00 25.70 1120.0 5 7 85.10 56.50 0.00 29.80 1149.8 5 8 62.50 46.70 0.00 13.60 1163.4 5 9 68.70 40.10 0.00 13.47 1176.9 5 10 77.70 45.00 0.00 20.35 1197.2 5 11 83.30 47.10 0.00 24.20 1221.4 5 12 80.10 44.10 0.00 21.10 1242.5 5 13 84.80 46.40 0.00 24.60 1267.1 5 14 56.10 53.30 0.02 13.70 1280.8 peak egg hatch 5 15 59.50 52.80 0.14 15.15 1296.0 5 16 61.10 51.80 0.00 15.45 1311.4 5 17 74.50 49.40 0.00 20.95 1332.4 5 18 72.30 49.20 0.00 19.75 1352.1 5 19 61.10 48.00 0.00 13.55 1365.7 5 20 66.10 42.20 0.00 13.15 1378.8 5 21 62.50 49.80 0.00 15.15 1394.0 5 22 63.60 48.30 0.07 14.95 1408.9 5 23 65.80 50.80 0.01 17.30 1426.2 5 24 68.50 49.30 0.00 17.90 1444.1 5 25 67.20 51.50 0.00 18.35 1462.5 5 26 61.90 51.40 0.00 15.65 1478.1 5 27 62.00 48.10 0.06 14.05 1492.2 5 28 70.20 43.10 0.00 15.65 1507.8 5 29 67.80 46.80 0.00 16.30 1524.1 5 30 77.10 46.40 0.00 20.75 1544.9 5 31 86.40 49.60 0.00 27.00 1571.9 6 1 79.20 54.80 0.00 26.00 1597.9 6 2 67.70 57.00 0.09 21.35 1619.2 6 3 87.40 52.20 0.00 28.80 1648.0 6 4 96.60 65.40 0.00 40.00 1688.0 6 5 98.10 62.80 0.00 39.45 1727.5 6 6 90.20 62.80 0.00 35.50 1763.0 6 7 89.40 57.30 0.00 32.35 1795.3 6 8 73.10 55.70 0.00 23.40 1818.7 6 9 60.30 53.00 0.02 15.65 1834.4 6 10 61.00 47.20 0.12 13.10 1847.5 6 11 67.50 45.10 0.04 15.30 1862.8 6 12 75.40 47.60 0.00 20.50 1883.3 6 13 64.10 47.40 0.01 14.75 1898.0 6 14 61.60 47.10 0.08 13.35 1911.4 6 15 61.60 45.50 0.01 12.55 1923.9 6 16 65.50 41.30 0.01 12.40 1936.3 6 17 66.30 50.10 0.01 17.20 1953.5 6 18 67.00 46.60 0.00 15.80 1969.3 6 19 75.90 40.80 0.00 17.36 1986.7 6 20 79.60 57.60 0.00 27.60 2014.3 6 21 73.20 51.30 0.00 21.25 2035.5 6 22 78.60 50.70 0.00 23.65 2059.2 6 23 65.20 52.70 0.04 17.95 2077.1 peak in density large larvae 6 24 68.90 48.80 0.03 17.85 2095.0 6 25 77.70 43.70 0.00 19.70 2114.7 6 26 88.50 59.80 0.00 33.15 2147.8 6 27 86.70 59.50 0.00 32.10 2179.9 6 28 80.10 53.70 0.00 25.90 2205.8 6 29 78.70 50.70 0.00 23.70 2229.5 6 30 76.70 47.30 0.00 21.00 2250.5 7 1 80.90 50.20 0.00 24.55 2275.1 7 2 83.00 57.80 0.00 29.40 2304.5 7 3 72.80 55.70 0.00 23.25 2327.7 7 4 69.60 54.50 0.00 21.05 2348.8 7 5 72.60 49.20 0.00 19.90 2368.7 7 6 77.30 53.30 0.00 24.30 2393.0 7 7 68.40 57.80 0.09 22.10 2415.1 7 8 72.20 58.00 0.10 24.10 2439.2 7 9 69.40 53.50 0.01 20.45 2459.6 7 10 70.30 56.10 0.02 22.20 2481.8 7 11 74.20 50.40 0.01 21.30 2503.1 7 12 73.10 55.10 0.00 23.10 2526.2 7 13 78.30 56.00 0.00 26.15 2552.4 7 14 78.80 52.20 0.00 24.50 2576.9 7 15 72.50 46.30 0.00 18.40 2595.3 7 16 73.70 51.50 0.00 21.60 2616.9 7 17 73.00 57.10 0.00 24.05 2640.9 7 18 73.30 57.60 0.00 24.45 2665.4 7 19 76.00 58.50 0.00 26.25 2691.6 7 20 82.00 57.50 0.00 28.75 2720.4 7 21 85.90 58.00 0.00 30.95 2751.3 7 22 71.20 57.30 0.00 23.25 2774.6 7 23 72.50 54.10 0.00 22.30 2796.9 7 24 86.40 53.70 0.00 29.05 2825.9 7 25 86.70 58.30 0.00 31.50 2857.4 7 26 82.10 58.30 0.00 29.20 2886.6 7 27 88.00 56.30 0.00 31.15 2917.8 7 28 91.70 59.20 0.00 34.45 2952.2 7 29 93.00 63.60 0.00 37.30 2989.5 7 30 78.20 54.50 0.00 25.35 3014.9 7 31 76.00 53.10 0.00 23.55 3038.4 8 1 81.30 50.10 0.00 24.70 3063.1 8 2 74.10 50.90 0.00 21.50 3084.6 8 3 79.20 50.00 0.00 23.60 3108.2 8 4 89.40 63.70 0.00 35.55 3143.8 8 5 77.50 56.10 0.00 25.80 3169.6 8 6 76.10 49.70 0.00 21.90 3191.5 8 7 72.30 53.80 0.00 22.05 3213.5 8 8 68.10 52.40 0.07 19.25 3232.8 8 9 68.60 54.10 0.00 20.35 3253.1 8 10 78.30 59.30 0.00 27.80 3280.9 8 11 88.40 57.80 0.00 32.10 3313.0 8 12 95.90 58.40 0.00 36.15 3349.2 8 13 93.70 61.50 0.00 36.60 3385.8 8 14 87.50 60.50 0.00 33.00 3418.8 8 15 85.90 56.30 0.00 30.10 3448.9 8 16 86.80 57.40 0.00 31.10 3480.0 8 17 83.70 55.40 0.00 28.55 3508.5 8 18 98.50 56.80 0.00 36.65 3545.2 8 19 95.50 64.50 0.00 39.00 3584.2 8 20 100.00 59.80 0.00 38.90 3623.1 8 21 81.20 56.10 0.00 27.65 3650.7 Vx 8 22 71.60 46.30 0.00 17.95 3668.7 8 23 84.00 48.10 0.00 25.05 3693.7 8 24 89.90 56.30 0.00 32.10 3725.8 8 25 93.20 57.80 0.00 34.50 3760.3 8 26 96.00 57.50 0.00 35.75 3796.1 8 27 82.10 57.10 0.00 28.60 3824.7 8 28 84.90 49.80 0.00 26.35 3851.0 8 29 83.30 53.90 0.00 27.60 3878.6 8 30 73.70 51.90 0.00 21.80 3900.4 8 31 68.60 53.40 0.25 20.00 3920.4 9 1 66.80 49.50 0.03 17.15 3937.6 9 2 67.80 51.40 0.01 18.60 3956.2 9 3 68.70 42.80 0.00 14.75 3970.9 9 4 69.90 44.40 0.01 16.15 3987.1 9 5 71.00 43.00 0.00 16.00 4003.1 9 6 71.90 55.50 0.19 22.70 4025.8 9 7 74.50 54.70 0.00 23.60 4049.4 9 8 74.70 55.30 0.00 24.00 4073.4 9 9 82.70 48.40 0.00 24.55 4097.9 9 10 86.50 50.10 0.00 27.30 4125.2 9 11 72.50 49.50 0.00 20.00 4145.2 9 12 78.50 50.60 0.00 23.55 4168.8 9 13 79.30 48.60 0.00 22.95 4191.7 9 14 80.90 42.90 0.00 20.90 4212.6 9 15 81.70 47.30 0.00 23.50 4236.1 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg FOGO 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2016 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR
DD accumulation on 2-11-17: 264 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 8 days ahead 2016 ok
 13 days ahead 2015 ok
 29 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 4-15-17: 853 QA 100% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 4-19-16 852peak pheromone trap catch
 4-27-16 954peak female adult emergence
 5-1-16 1012peak egg laying
 5-14-16 1281peak egg hatch
 6-23-16 2077peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)