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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 36.40 29.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 34.80 24.70 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 31.10 21.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 36.00 31.30 0.51 0.00 0.0
1 5 38.00 29.60 0.15 0.00 0.0
1 6 43.70 27.10 0.03 0.47 0.5
1 7 43.00 32.80 0.00 0.38 0.9
1 8 42.10 28.80 0.01 0.14 1.0
1 9 42.40 32.00 0.09 0.22 1.2
1 10 49.30 30.40 0.00 2.46 3.7
1 11 42.40 29.80 0.21 0.20 3.9
1 12 44.10 40.30 1.55 1.33 5.2
1 13 50.60 38.90 1.12 4.13 9.3
1 14 44.80 39.30 0.38 1.46 10.8
1 15 47.60 41.90 0.02 3.75 14.5
1 16 50.90 42.60 0.81 5.75 20.3
1 17 48.30 41.60 0.66 3.95 24.2
1 18 50.80 44.00 0.20 6.40 30.6
1 19 45.80 44.10 0.47 3.95 34.6
1 20 46.80 39.30 0.36 2.40 37.0
1 21 50.70 44.00 0.26 6.35 43.3
1 22 57.60 45.60 0.38 10.60 53.9
1 23 51.10 41.30 0.18 5.20 59.1
1 24 47.70 36.00 0.02 2.31 61.5
1 25 55.60 42.70 0.00 8.15 69.6
1 26 52.00 46.50 0.08 8.25 77.9
1 27 58.10 48.90 0.05 12.50 90.4
1 28 58.00 42.60 0.51 9.30 99.7
1 29 51.60 39.90 0.66 4.89 104.5
1 30 45.60 36.00 0.22 1.43 106.0
1 31 40.00 34.30 0.07 0.00 106.0
2 1 44.60 35.30 0.01 0.99 107.0
2 2 46.80 33.70 0.00 1.72 108.7
2 3 45.70 40.10 0.33 2.06 110.7
2 4 54.10 42.60 0.53 7.35 118.1
2 5 50.50 35.80 0.17 3.52 121.6
2 6 50.70 36.30 0.00 3.68 125.3
2 7 60.70 40.20 0.01 9.52 134.8
2 8 65.30 35.50 0.00 10.42 145.2
2 9 62.90 36.30 0.01 9.45 154.7
2 10 56.60 38.90 0.00 7.06 161.7
2 11 53.10 48.20 0.24 9.65 171.4
2 12 60.30 44.10 0.18 11.20 182.6
2 13 49.60 42.10 0.43 4.85 187.4
2 14 57.50 47.70 0.14 11.60 199.0
2 15 59.80 49.70 0.00 13.75 212.8
2 16 52.90 47.60 0.02 9.25 222.0
2 17 57.90 46.00 0.09 10.95 233.0
2 18 47.60 42.10 0.55 3.85 236.8
2 19 48.40 40.10 0.50 3.38 240.2
2 20 50.00 36.40 0.01 3.38 243.6
2 21 50.20 32.00 0.16 2.95 246.6
2 22 49.00 35.60 0.05 2.82 249.4
2 23 58.20 31.40 0.02 6.34 255.7
2 24 60.10 40.60 0.00 9.37 265.1 Vn
2 25 63.60 35.30 0.00 9.56 274.6
2 26 56.20 40.10 0.29 7.24 281.9
2 27 57.90 45.60 0.10 10.75 292.6
2 28 54.20 42.60 0.19 7.40 300.0
2 29 49.90 41.50 0.41 4.70 304.7
3 1 56.90 44.70 0.42 9.80 314.5
3 2 53.50 41.30 0.22 6.40 320.9
3 3 60.70 42.30 0.10 10.50 331.4
3 4 56.40 37.90 0.01 6.70 338.1
3 5 60.00 48.20 0.48 13.10 351.2
3 6 53.30 44.00 0.49 7.65 358.9
3 7 53.50 39.20 0.03 5.62 364.5
3 8 44.20 32.90 0.20 0.75 365.3
3 9 55.80 44.40 0.96 9.10 374.4
3 10 55.10 42.80 0.42 7.95 382.3
3 11 50.90 37.60 0.16 4.00 386.3
3 12 48.40 41.60 0.58 4.00 390.3
3 13 52.00 41.90 0.78 5.95 396.3
3 14 48.80 39.50 0.94 3.41 399.7
3 15 46.50 39.10 0.25 2.22 401.9
3 16 57.10 41.30 0.08 8.20 410.1
3 17 58.60 33.80 0.00 6.90 417.0
3 18 60.60 46.20 0.00 12.40 429.4
3 19 64.10 45.80 0.00 13.95 443.3
3 20 58.00 46.20 0.21 11.10 454.4
3 21 51.50 44.50 0.24 7.00 461.4
3 22 56.70 43.00 0.03 8.85 470.3
3 23 53.40 44.70 0.05 8.05 478.3
3 24 54.00 42.10 0.12 7.05 485.4
3 25 55.20 38.20 0.00 6.19 491.6
3 26 56.70 37.80 0.02 6.82 498.4
3 27 53.00 40.60 0.05 5.83 504.2
3 28 57.00 32.70 0.00 5.99 510.2
3 29 65.40 36.40 0.01 10.69 520.9
3 30 74.00 35.60 0.00 14.67 535.6
3 31 72.20 39.60 0.00 15.02 550.6
4 1 76.10 43.30 0.00 18.70 569.3
4 2 68.70 44.80 0.00 15.75 585.0
4 3 69.40 41.60 0.18 14.50 599.5
4 4 58.40 42.80 0.07 9.60 609.1
4 5 59.10 41.60 0.00 9.35 618.5
4 6 74.90 37.10 0.00 15.54 634.0
4 7 84.50 45.30 0.00 23.90 657.9
4 8 82.50 50.00 0.00 25.25 683.2
4 9 65.80 46.50 0.00 15.15 698.3
4 10 60.90 47.90 0.00 13.40 711.7
4 11 60.70 48.90 0.00 13.80 725.5
4 12 57.00 46.50 0.13 10.75 736.3
4 13 57.60 42.90 0.24 9.25 745.5
4 14 55.40 43.20 0.31 8.30 753.8
4 15 60.00 35.20 0.01 7.82 761.7
4 16 70.70 39.80 0.00 14.35 776.0
4 17 78.90 43.80 0.00 20.35 796.4
4 18 87.60 49.00 0.00 27.30 823.7
4 19 86.50 51.50 0.00 28.00 851.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 20 78.30 51.00 0.00 23.65 875.3
4 21 75.10 47.00 0.20 20.05 895.4
4 22 62.00 48.80 0.64 14.40 909.8
4 23 60.80 43.00 0.02 10.90 920.7
4 24 55.10 43.10 0.03 8.10 928.8
4 25 60.70 34.40 0.00 7.99 936.7
4 26 57.80 33.60 0.00 6.50 943.2
4 27 58.00 45.60 0.04 10.80 954.0 Peak female adult emergence
4 28 61.10 41.10 0.00 10.10 964.1
4 29 62.20 48.30 0.07 14.25 978.4
4 30 68.60 37.00 0.00 12.41 990.8
5 1 78.00 46.30 0.00 21.15 1012.0 Peak egg laying
5 2 83.40 47.60 0.00 24.50 1036.5
5 3 73.40 53.00 0.01 22.20 1058.7
5 4 62.80 50.90 0.00 15.85 1074.5
5 5 70.70 50.90 0.00 19.80 1094.3
5 6 81.40 52.00 0.00 25.70 1120.0
5 7 85.10 56.50 0.00 29.80 1149.8
5 8 62.50 46.70 0.00 13.60 1163.4
5 9 68.70 40.10 0.00 13.47 1176.9
5 10 77.70 45.00 0.00 20.35 1197.2
5 11 83.30 47.10 0.00 24.20 1221.4
5 12 80.10 44.10 0.00 21.10 1242.5
5 13 84.80 46.40 0.00 24.60 1267.1
5 14 56.10 53.30 0.02 13.70 1280.8 Peak egg hatch
5 15 59.50 52.80 0.14 15.15 1296.0
5 16 61.10 51.80 0.00 15.45 1311.4
5 17 74.50 49.40 0.00 20.95 1332.4
5 18 72.30 49.20 0.00 19.75 1352.1
5 19 61.10 48.00 0.00 13.55 1365.7
5 20 66.10 42.20 0.00 13.15 1378.8
5 21 62.50 49.80 0.00 15.15 1394.0
5 22 63.60 48.30 0.07 14.95 1408.9
5 23 65.80 50.80 0.01 17.30 1426.2
5 24 68.50 49.30 0.00 17.90 1444.1
5 25 67.20 51.50 0.00 18.35 1462.5
5 26 61.90 51.40 0.00 15.65 1478.1
5 27 62.00 48.10 0.06 14.05 1492.2
5 28 70.20 43.10 0.00 15.65 1507.8
5 29 67.80 46.80 0.00 16.30 1524.1
5 30 77.10 46.40 0.00 20.75 1544.9
5 31 86.40 49.60 0.00 27.00 1571.9
6 1 79.20 54.80 0.00 26.00 1597.9
6 2 67.70 57.00 0.09 21.35 1619.2
6 3 87.40 52.20 0.00 28.80 1648.0
6 4 96.60 65.40 0.00 40.00 1688.0
6 5 98.10 62.80 0.00 39.45 1727.5
6 6 90.20 62.80 0.00 35.50 1763.0
6 7 89.40 57.30 0.00 32.35 1795.3
6 8 73.10 55.70 0.00 23.40 1818.7
6 9 60.30 53.00 0.02 15.65 1834.4
6 10 61.00 47.20 0.12 13.10 1847.5
6 11 67.50 45.10 0.04 15.30 1862.8
6 12 75.40 47.60 0.00 20.50 1883.3
6 13 64.10 47.40 0.01 14.75 1898.0
6 14 61.60 47.10 0.08 13.35 1911.4
6 15 61.60 45.50 0.01 12.55 1923.9
6 16 65.50 41.30 0.01 12.40 1936.3
6 17 66.30 50.10 0.01 17.20 1953.5
6 18 67.00 46.60 0.00 15.80 1969.3
6 19 75.90 40.80 0.00 17.36 1986.7
6 20 79.60 57.60 0.00 27.60 2014.3
6 21 73.20 51.30 0.00 21.25 2035.5
6 22 78.60 50.70 0.00 23.65 2059.2
6 23 65.20 52.70 0.04 17.95 2077.1 Peak in density large larvae
6 24 68.90 48.80 0.03 17.85 2095.0
6 25 77.70 43.70 0.00 19.70 2114.7
6 26 88.50 59.80 0.00 33.15 2147.8
6 27 86.70 59.50 0.00 32.10 2179.9
6 28 80.10 53.70 0.00 25.90 2205.8
6 29 78.70 50.70 0.00 23.70 2229.5
6 30 76.70 47.30 0.00 21.00 2250.5
7 1 80.90 50.20 0.00 24.55 2275.1
7 2 83.00 57.80 0.00 29.40 2304.5
7 3 72.80 55.70 0.00 23.25 2327.7
7 4 69.60 54.50 0.00 21.05 2348.8
7 5 72.60 49.20 0.00 19.90 2368.7
7 6 77.30 53.30 0.00 24.30 2393.0
7 7 68.40 57.80 0.09 22.10 2415.1
7 8 72.20 58.00 0.10 24.10 2439.2
7 9 69.40 53.50 0.01 20.45 2459.6
7 10 70.30 56.10 0.02 22.20 2481.8
7 11 74.20 50.40 0.01 21.30 2503.1
7 12 73.10 55.10 0.00 23.10 2526.2
7 13 78.30 56.00 0.00 26.15 2552.4
7 14 78.80 52.20 0.00 24.50 2576.9
7 15 72.50 46.30 0.00 18.40 2595.3
7 16 73.70 51.50 0.00 21.60 2616.9
7 17 73.00 57.10 0.00 24.05 2640.9
7 18 73.30 57.60 0.00 24.45 2665.4
7 19 76.00 58.50 0.00 26.25 2691.6
7 20 82.00 57.50 0.00 28.75 2720.4
7 21 85.90 58.00 0.00 30.95 2751.3
7 22 71.20 57.30 0.00 23.25 2774.6
7 23 72.50 54.10 0.00 22.30 2796.9
7 24 86.40 53.70 0.00 29.05 2825.9
7 25 86.70 58.30 0.00 31.50 2857.4
7 26 82.10 58.30 0.00 29.20 2886.6
7 27 88.00 56.30 0.00 31.15 2917.8
7 28 91.70 59.20 0.00 34.45 2952.2
7 29 93.00 63.60 0.00 37.30 2989.5
7 30 78.20 54.50 0.00 25.35 3014.9
7 31 76.00 53.10 0.00 23.55 3038.4
8 1 81.30 50.10 0.00 24.70 3063.1
8 2 74.10 50.90 0.00 21.50 3084.6
8 3 79.20 50.00 0.00 23.60 3108.2
8 4 89.40 63.70 0.00 35.55 3143.8
8 5 77.50 56.10 0.00 25.80 3169.6
8 6 76.10 49.70 0.00 21.90 3191.5
8 7 72.30 53.80 0.00 22.05 3213.5
8 8 68.10 52.40 0.07 19.25 3232.8
8 9 68.60 54.10 0.00 20.35 3253.1
8 10 78.30 59.30 0.00 27.80 3280.9
8 11 88.40 57.80 0.00 32.10 3313.0
8 12 95.90 58.40 0.00 36.15 3349.2
8 13 93.70 61.50 0.00 36.60 3385.8
8 14 87.50 60.50 0.00 33.00 3418.8
8 15 85.90 56.30 0.00 30.10 3448.9
8 16 86.80 57.40 0.00 31.10 3480.0
8 17 83.70 55.40 0.00 28.55 3508.5
8 18 98.50 56.80 0.00 36.65 3545.2
8 19 95.50 64.50 0.00 39.00 3584.2
8 20 100.00 59.80 0.00 38.90 3623.1
8 21 81.20 56.10 0.00 27.65 3650.7 Vx
8 22 71.60 46.30 0.00 17.95 3668.7
8 23 84.00 48.10 0.00 25.05 3693.7
8 24 89.90 56.30 0.00 32.10 3725.8
8 25 93.20 57.80 0.00 34.50 3760.3
8 26 96.00 57.50 0.00 35.75 3796.1
8 27 82.10 57.10 0.00 28.60 3824.7
8 28 84.90 49.80 0.00 26.35 3851.0
8 29 83.30 53.90 0.00 27.60 3878.6
8 30 73.70 51.90 0.00 21.80 3900.4
8 31 68.60 53.40 0.25 20.00 3920.4
9 1 66.80 49.50 0.03 17.15 3937.6
9 2 67.80 51.40 0.01 18.60 3956.2
9 3 68.70 42.80 0.00 14.75 3970.9
9 4 69.90 44.40 0.01 16.15 3987.1
9 5 71.00 43.00 0.00 16.00 4003.1
9 6 71.90 55.50 0.19 22.70 4025.8
9 7 74.50 54.70 0.00 23.60 4049.4
9 8 74.70 55.30 0.00 24.00 4073.4
9 9 82.70 48.40 0.00 24.55 4097.9
9 10 86.50 50.10 0.00 27.30 4125.2
9 11 72.50 49.50 0.00 20.00 4145.2
9 12 78.50 50.60 0.00 23.55 4168.8
9 13 79.30 48.60 0.00 22.95 4191.7
9 14 80.90 42.90 0.00 20.90 4212.6
9 15 81.70 47.30 0.00 23.50 4236.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-19-16 | 852 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
4-27-16 | 954 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-1-16 | 1012 | Peak egg laying |
5-14-16 | 1281 | Peak egg hatch |
6-23-16 | 2077 | Peak in density large larvae |