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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 6.3 * START *
1 2 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 11.7
1 3 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 12.7
1 4 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 14.1
1 5 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 15.8
1 6 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 18.5
1 7 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 19.3
1 8 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 19.7
1 9 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 20.7
1 10 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 21.2
1 11 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 24.8
1 12 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 29.3
1 13 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 35.6
1 14 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 37.9
1 15 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 42.7
1 16 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 43.6
1 17 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 46.3
1 18 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 48.6
1 19 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 49.4
1 20 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 50.6
1 21 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 53.3
1 22 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.0
1 23 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 54.0
1 24 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 54.0
1 25 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 54.3
1 26 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 54.3
1 27 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 54.3
1 28 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 54.7
1 29 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 55.0
1 30 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 55.0
1 31 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 55.6
2 1 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 56.1
2 2 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 56.5
2 3 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 58.0
2 4 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 59.8
2 5 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 62.5
2 6 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 66.4
2 7 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 67.3
2 8 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 9 32.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 10 24.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 11 24.80 17.60 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 12 26.60 17.60 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 13 32.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 14 33.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 15 33.80 32.00 0.00 0.00 67.3
2 16 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 67.6
2 17 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 68.9
2 18 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 68.9
2 19 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 70.5
2 20 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 72.2
2 21 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 76.1
2 22 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 80.6
2 23 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 82.2
2 24 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 82.4
2 25 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 84.3
2 26 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 86.6
2 27 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 87.3
2 28 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 88.5
3 1 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 92.0
3 2 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 93.9
3 3 47.20 37.40 0.00 2.26 96.2 Hx
3 4 47.40 33.70 0.00 1.96 98.2 Hx Hn
3 5 51.80 33.60 0.00 3.80 101.9 Hn
3 6 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 108.2
3 7 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 111.0
3 8 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 116.4
3 9 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 121.6
3 10 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 123.8
3 11 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 127.2
3 12 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 132.6
3 13 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 138.9
3 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 143.3
3 15 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 145.3
3 16 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 147.9
3 17 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 154.7
3 18 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 159.9
3 19 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 168.0
3 20 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 171.6
3 21 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 172.2
3 22 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 175.2
3 23 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 178.1
3 24 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 179.5
3 25 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 185.8
3 26 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 191.0
3 27 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 196.4
3 28 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 198.3
3 29 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 200.9
3 30 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 203.2
3 31 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 210.3
4 1 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 214.7
4 2 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 221.0
4 3 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 227.3
4 4 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 231.2
4 5 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 235.6
4 6 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 241.8
4 7 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 243.6
4 8 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 247.2
4 9 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 249.3
4 10 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 252.6
4 11 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 256.0
4 12 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 263.1
4 13 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 275.0
4 14 73.40 41.00 0.00 16.20 291.2
4 15 73.40 41.00 0.00 16.20 307.4
4 16 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 326.3
4 17 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 347.9
4 18 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 365.0
4 19 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 384.8
4 20 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 399.2
4 21 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 411.8
4 22 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 423.5
4 23 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 433.4
4 24 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 441.5
4 25 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 450.5
4 26 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 462.2
4 27 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 473.0
4 28 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 486.5
4 29 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 505.4
4 30 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 521.6
5 1 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 534.2
5 2 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 543.5
5 3 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 554.3
5 4 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 568.7
5 5 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 584.0
5 6 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 599.3
5 7 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 606.7
5 8 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 615.7
5 9 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 624.7
5 10 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 636.4
5 11 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 650.8
5 12 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 667.0
5 13 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 684.1
5 14 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 702.1
5 15 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 720.1
5 16 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 739.9
5 17 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 755.2
5 18 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 765.1
5 19 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 775.9
5 20 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 787.6
5 21 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 801.1
5 22 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 815.5
5 23 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 830.8
5 24 57.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 843.4
5 25 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 861.4 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 26 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 875.8
5 27 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 889.3
5 28 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 902.8
5 29 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 918.1
5 30 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 937.9
5 31 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 961.3 Peak female adult emergence
6 1 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 990.1
6 2 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1018.0 Peak egg laying
6 3 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1042.3
6 4 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1060.3
6 5 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1076.5
6 6 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 1084.6
6 7 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1097.2
6 8 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1111.6
6 9 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1128.7
6 10 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1144.0
6 11 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1160.2
6 12 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1182.7
6 13 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1204.3
6 14 64.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 1225.0
6 15 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1245.7
6 16 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1269.1
6 17 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1290.7 Peak egg hatch
6 18 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1311.4
6 19 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1331.2
6 20 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 1360.0
6 21 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 1392.4
6 22 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 1421.2
6 23 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1445.5
6 24 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1473.4
6 25 93.20 62.60 0.00 36.90 1510.3
6 26 102.20 64.40 0.00 42.30 1552.6
6 27 105.80 69.80 0.00 46.80 1599.4
6 28 107.60 75.20 0.00 50.40 1649.8
6 29 89.60 69.80 0.00 38.70 1688.5
6 30 75.20 62.60 0.00 27.90 1716.4
7 1 77.00 64.40 0.00 29.70 1746.1
7 2 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 1775.8
7 3 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 1804.6
7 4 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1832.5
7 5 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 1860.4
7 6 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1888.3
7 7 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1910.8
7 8 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1934.2
7 9 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1962.1
7 10 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1988.2
7 11 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2014.3
7 12 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2041.3
7 13 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2069.2
7 14 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2092.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 15 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2113.3
7 16 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2134.9
7 17 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2160.1
7 18 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2185.3
7 19 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2212.3
7 20 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2236.6
7 21 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2258.2
7 22 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2280.7
7 23 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 2307.7
7 24 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2336.5
7 25 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2365.3
7 26 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2393.2
7 27 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2421.1
7 28 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2450.8
7 29 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2482.3
7 30 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 2517.4
7 31 75.20 64.40 0.00 28.80 2546.2
8 1 80.60 62.60 0.00 30.60 2576.8
8 2 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 2608.3
8 3 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2638.0
8 4 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2669.5
8 5 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2701.0
8 6 73.40 64.40 0.00 27.90 2728.9
8 7 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2751.4
8 8 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 2772.1
8 9 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 2798.2
8 10 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 2827.9
8 11 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2860.3
8 12 102.20 66.20 0.00 43.20 2903.5
8 13 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 2937.7
8 14 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 2970.1
8 15 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 2999.8
8 16 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 3023.2
8 17 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 3045.7
8 18 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 3068.2
8 19 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3090.7
8 20 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 3109.6
8 21 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 3133.0
8 22 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 3151.9
8 23 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3172.6
8 24 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 3195.1
8 25 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3218.5
8 26 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 3240.1
8 27 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 3259.9
8 28 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3280.6
8 29 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3304.9
8 30 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 3322.9
8 31 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 3337.3
9 1 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 3355.3
9 2 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 3378.7
9 3 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3400.3
9 4 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3420.1
9 5 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 3443.5
9 6 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 3468.7
9 7 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3495.7
9 8 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 3523.6
9 9 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 3552.4
9 10 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 3576.7
9 11 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 3596.5
9 12 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 3616.3
9 13 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3637.0
9 14 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 3648.7
9 15 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 3664.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C. Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-25-21 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-31-21 | 961 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 6-2-21 | 1018 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-17-21 | 1291 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-14-21 | 2093 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2916274)
