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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 6.3 * START *
1 2 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 6.7
1 3 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 14.5
1 4 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 17.2
1 5 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 18.6
1 6 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 18.6
1 7 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 23.0
1 8 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 23.8
1 9 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 10 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 11 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 12 41.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 13 21.20 14.00 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 14 14.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 15 23.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 16 24.80 15.80 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 17 26.60 14.00 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 18 32.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 19 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 20 41.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 23.8
1 21 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 27.4
1 22 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 27.9
1 23 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 28.5
1 24 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 33.9
1 25 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 35.0
1 26 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 40.4
1 27 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 44.9
1 28 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 47.1
1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 51.1
1 30 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 52.8
1 31 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 60.9
2 1 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 64.9
2 2 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 64.9
2 3 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 64.9
2 4 32.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 64.9
2 5 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 64.9
2 6 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 64.9
2 7 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 66.9
2 8 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 69.3
2 9 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 69.3
2 10 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 70.7
2 11 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 71.7
2 12 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 73.4
2 13 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 75.6
2 14 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 77.8
2 15 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 78.3
2 16 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 79.3
2 17 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 79.6
2 18 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 80.9
2 19 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 83.6
2 20 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 87.8
2 21 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 90.7
2 22 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 92.0
2 23 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 93.2
2 24 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 94.2
2 25 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 94.5
2 26 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 97.2
2 27 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 99.9
2 28 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 103.5
2 29 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 106.2
3 1 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 106.5
3 2 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 108.4
3 3 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 112.9
3 4 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 116.4
3 5 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 120.3
3 6 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 123.1
3 7 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 123.4
3 8 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 124.9
3 9 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 126.2
3 10 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 127.9
3 11 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 130.9
3 12 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 132.6
3 13 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 132.6
3 14 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 132.6
3 15 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 134.0
3 16 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 140.6
3 17 55.40 28.40 0.00 4.76 145.4
3 18 57.20 28.40 0.00 5.52 150.9
3 19 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 157.7
3 20 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 164.7
3 21 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 169.9
3 22 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 174.3
3 23 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 178.7
3 24 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 180.6
3 25 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 184.7
3 26 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 185.7
3 27 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 189.3
3 28 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 196.5
3 29 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 204.6
3 30 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 207.3
3 31 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 209.2
4 1 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 210.9
4 2 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 211.8
4 3 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 212.8
4 4 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 215.8
4 5 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 220.6
4 6 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 226.0
4 7 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 233.2
4 8 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 242.8
4 9 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 252.4
4 10 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 261.6
4 11 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 272.4
4 12 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 280.3
4 13 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 288.5
4 14 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 298.4
4 15 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 311.9
4 16 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 324.5
4 17 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 334.4
4 18 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 347.9
4 19 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 360.5
4 20 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 370.7
4 21 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 382.4
4 22 51.80 48.20 0.00 9.00 391.4
4 23 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 404.0
4 24 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 413.9
4 25 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 428.3
4 26 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 437.3
4 27 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 449.0
4 28 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 459.8
4 29 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 470.6
4 30 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 483.2
5 1 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 497.6
5 2 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 510.2
5 3 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 518.3
5 4 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 527.5
5 5 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 547.3
5 6 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 559.0
5 7 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 573.4
5 8 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 596.8
5 9 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 623.8
5 10 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 651.7
5 11 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 676.9
5 12 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 693.1
5 13 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 708.4
5 14 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 721.9
5 15 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 738.1
5 16 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 752.5
5 17 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 769.6
5 18 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 785.8
5 19 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 801.1
5 20 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 814.6
5 21 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 826.3
5 22 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 839.8
5 23 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 853.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 24 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 870.4
5 25 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 887.5
5 26 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 905.5
5 27 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 923.5
5 28 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 949.6
5 29 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 973.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 30 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 986.5
5 31 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1001.8 Peak egg laying
6 1 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1016.2
6 2 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 1027.9
6 3 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1042.3
6 4 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1057.6
6 5 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1073.8
6 6 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1090.0
6 7 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1105.3
6 8 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1120.6
6 9 57.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 1133.2
6 10 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1153.9
6 11 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 1174.6
6 12 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1188.1
6 13 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1203.4
6 14 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1217.8
6 15 55.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 1230.4
6 16 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1246.6
6 17 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1266.4
6 18 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1288.0 Peak egg hatch
6 19 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1312.3
6 20 66.20 60.80 0.00 22.50 1334.8
6 21 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1354.6
6 22 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1377.1
6 23 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 1403.2
6 24 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 1428.4
6 25 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1453.6
6 26 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1476.1
6 27 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1491.4
6 28 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1512.1
6 29 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1533.7
6 30 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1549.9
7 1 55.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 1562.5
7 2 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1579.6
7 3 57.20 53.60 0.00 14.40 1594.0
7 4 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1612.9
7 5 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1632.7
7 6 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1651.6
7 7 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1671.4
7 8 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1693.0
7 9 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1712.8
7 10 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1733.5
7 11 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1750.6
7 12 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1772.2
7 13 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1791.1
7 14 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1813.6
7 15 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1839.7
7 16 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 1864.9
7 17 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 1889.2
7 18 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1916.2
7 19 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1943.2
7 20 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 1974.7
7 21 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2002.6
7 22 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2026.9
7 23 68.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 2049.4
7 24 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2070.1 Peak in density large larvae
7 25 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 2090.8
7 26 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2119.6
7 27 89.60 60.80 0.00 34.20 2153.8
7 28 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 2180.8
7 29 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 2208.7
7 30 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 2242.0
7 31 78.80 60.80 0.00 28.80 2270.8
8 1 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2295.1
8 2 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2321.2
8 3 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2348.2
8 4 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2376.1
8 5 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2402.2
8 6 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 2422.9
8 7 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2444.5
8 8 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2466.1
8 9 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2486.8
8 10 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2510.2
8 11 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 2530.0
8 12 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 2548.9
8 13 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 2567.8
8 14 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 2589.4
8 15 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2618.2
8 16 95.00 60.80 0.00 36.90 2655.1
8 17 84.20 64.40 0.00 33.30 2688.4
8 18 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2715.4
8 19 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2740.6
8 20 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 2768.5
8 21 69.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 2792.8
8 22 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2814.4
8 23 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2836.0
8 24 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2859.4
8 25 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2881.0
8 26 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2901.7
8 27 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 2923.3
8 28 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2945.8
8 29 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2966.5
8 30 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 2982.7
8 31 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 3000.7
9 1 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 3025.9
9 2 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 3050.2
9 3 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 3076.3
9 4 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 3106.0
9 5 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 3126.7
9 6 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 3152.8
9 7 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 3180.7
9 8 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 3205.9
9 9 87.80 51.80 0.00 28.80 3234.7
9 10 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3266.2
9 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3290.5
9 12 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 3307.6
9 13 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 3323.8
9 14 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 3342.7
9 15 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 3371.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C. Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-23-20 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-29-20 | 973 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-31-20 | 1002 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-18-20 | 1288 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-24-20 | 2070 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?308266)
