Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 30.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 0.5 1 7 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 0.5 1 8 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 0.9 1 9 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 2.3 1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 3.6 1 11 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 3.6 1 12 33.80 32.00 0.00 0.00 3.6 1 13 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 3.6 1 14 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 8.9 1 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 12.8 1 16 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 19.1 1 17 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 26.3 1 18 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 32.6 1 19 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 34.4 1 20 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 36.6 1 21 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 42.0 1 22 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 43.9 1 23 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 43.9 1 24 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 45.0 1 25 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 45.0 1 26 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 45.4 1 27 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 45.4 1 28 45.30 33.70 0.00 1.16 46.6 Hx Hn 1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 50.5 1 30 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 52.7 1 31 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 53.1 2 1 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 53.1 2 2 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 57.9 2 3 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 65.1 2 4 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 73.2 2 5 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 78.6 2 6 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 82.2 2 7 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 88.5 2 8 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 95.7 2 9 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 95.7 2 10 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 95.7 2 11 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 96.5 2 12 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 13 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 14 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 15 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 16 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 98.2 2 17 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 99.6 2 18 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 99.6 2 19 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 99.6 2 20 47.40 19.40 0.00 1.33 101.0 Hx 2 21 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 22 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 23 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 24 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 25 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 101.3 2 26 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 101.3 2 27 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 101.7 2 28 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 102.1 3 1 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 103.8 3 2 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 103.8 3 3 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 104.7 3 4 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 104.7 3 5 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 105.5 3 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 108.6 3 7 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 111.4 3 8 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 113.6 3 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 117.2 3 10 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 122.3 3 11 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 130.6 3 12 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 143.2 3 13 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 154.9 3 14 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 157.6 3 15 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 163.0 3 16 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 169.0 3 17 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 173.4 3 18 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 177.3 3 19 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 180.6 3 20 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 183.9 3 21 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 191.7 3 22 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 195.0 3 23 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 196.0 3 24 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 196.4 3 25 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 198.3 3 26 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 200.1 3 27 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 208.2 3 28 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 214.5 3 29 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 218.1 3 30 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 224.4 3 31 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 230.1 4 1 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 232.4 4 2 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 235.1 4 3 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 238.2 4 4 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 242.7 4 5 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 247.2 4 6 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 259.8 4 7 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 271.5 4 8 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 279.6 4 9 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 291.3 4 10 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 302.1 4 11 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 309.3 4 12 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 314.1 4 13 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 319.5 4 14 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 325.8 4 15 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 333.9 4 16 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 338.4 4 17 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 344.7 4 18 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 353.0 4 19 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 360.8 4 20 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 370.7 4 21 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 380.6 4 22 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 388.9 4 23 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 403.3 4 24 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 420.4 4 25 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 442.0 4 26 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 467.2 4 27 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 480.7 4 28 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 490.6 4 29 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 499.6 4 30 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 510.4 5 1 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 523.9 5 2 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 537.4 5 3 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 555.4 5 4 57.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 568.0 5 5 71.60 42.80 0.00 16.20 584.2 5 6 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 609.4 5 7 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 630.1 5 8 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 654.4 5 9 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 672.4 5 10 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 685.0 5 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 701.2 5 12 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 721.9 5 13 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 746.2 5 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 775.0 5 15 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 797.5 5 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 817.3 5 17 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 835.3 5 18 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 853.3 peak pheromone trap catch 5 19 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 874.0 5 20 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 892.0 5 21 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 911.8 5 22 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 934.3 5 23 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 958.6 peak female adult emergence 5 24 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 979.3 5 25 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 997.3 5 26 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1013.5 peak egg laying 5 27 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1033.3 5 28 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1053.1 5 29 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1067.5 5 30 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1081.0 5 31 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 1094.5 6 1 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 1108.0 6 2 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1130.5 6 3 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1144.9 6 4 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1160.2 6 5 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1175.5 6 6 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1192.6 6 7 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1207.9 6 8 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1222.3 6 9 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1236.7 6 10 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 1250.2 6 11 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1265.5 6 12 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1279.0 peak egg hatch 6 13 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1295.2 6 14 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1311.4 6 15 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1328.5 6 16 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 1355.5 6 17 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 1384.3 6 18 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1414.9 6 19 82.40 60.80 0.00 30.60 1445.5 6 20 87.80 60.80 0.00 33.30 1478.8 6 21 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1501.3 6 22 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1520.2 6 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1542.7 6 24 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1566.1 6 25 71.20 53.60 0.00 21.40 1587.5 Hx 6 26 72.70 51.80 0.00 21.25 1608.8 Hx 6 27 71.80 52.40 0.00 21.10 1629.9 Hx Hn 6 28 73.50 54.10 0.00 22.80 1652.7 Hx Hn 6 29 64.40 54.70 0.00 18.55 1671.2 Hn 6 30 62.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 1690.1 7 1 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1709.9 7 2 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1727.9 7 3 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1746.8 7 4 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1777.4 7 5 82.40 64.40 0.00 32.40 1809.8 7 6 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 1837.7 7 7 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1860.2 7 8 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1885.4 7 9 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1908.8 7 10 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1931.3 7 11 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1958.3 7 12 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 1985.3 7 13 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2013.2 7 14 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 2046.5
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2047QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 7 days ahead 2017 ok
 13 days behind 2016 ok
 11 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for CYXX data
  7 15  86.50 48.50  0.00  26.50   2073.0  0.00_17.53%_precip.   peak in density large larvae
  7 16  82.60 47.40  0.00  24.00   2097.0  0.00_15.10%_precip.    
  7 17  81.30 51.90  0.00  25.60   2122.6  0.00_16.60%_precip.    
  7 18  70.20 56.00  0.00  22.10   2144.7  0.001_13.10%_precip.    
  7 19  72.60 48.50  0.00  19.55   2164.3  0.00_10.60%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg CYXX 2006-2015
  7 20  75.60 55.40  0.01  24.50   2188.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  73.80 55.20  0.11  23.50   2212.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  76.60 55.60  0.07  25.10   2237.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  73.60 55.40  0.04  23.50   2260.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  73.10 55.00  0.16  23.05   2283.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  75.50 54.40  0.21  23.95   2307.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  76.00 54.50  0.03  24.25   2332.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  75.90 55.70  0.00  24.80   2356.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  76.30 54.90  0.00  24.60   2381.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  77.30 55.00  0.00  25.15   2406.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  77.10 55.60  0.02  25.35   2432.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  76.90 54.30  0.02  24.60   2456.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  76.10 53.20  0.03  23.65   2480.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  76.50 54.20  0.00  24.35   2504.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  76.20 54.80  0.02  24.50   2529.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  77.30 54.90  0.00  25.10   2554.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  78.90 55.10  0.01  26.00   2580.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  77.00 55.00  0.00  25.00   2605.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  75.80 54.90  0.00  24.35   2629.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  73.60 55.50  0.04  23.55   2653.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  72.60 55.30  0.01  22.95   2676.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  73.60 54.90  0.15  23.25   2699.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  74.30 54.90  0.17  23.60   2722.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  76.80 53.90  0.06  24.35   2747.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  76.40 55.10  0.04  24.75   2772.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  75.90 55.00  0.04  24.45   2796.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  76.20 56.10  0.02  25.15   2821.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  77.40 56.00  0.00  25.70   2847.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  78.00 55.50  0.00  25.75   2873.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  78.10 55.40  0.00  25.75   2898.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  76.10 55.30  0.02  24.70   2923.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  75.20 55.50  0.08  24.35   2947.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  74.00 54.20  0.07  23.10   2971.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  73.80 53.90  0.03  22.85   2993.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  74.10 53.70  0.06  22.90   3016.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  75.50 53.50  0.02  23.50   3040.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  74.70 51.80  0.10  22.25   3062.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  75.20 52.50  0.01  22.85   3085.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  75.30 53.30  0.06  23.30   3108.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  76.00 53.20  0.06  23.60   3132.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  74.10 54.80  0.15  23.45   3155.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  71.70 54.30  0.26  22.00   3177.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  70.80 52.70  0.06  20.75   3198.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  68.60 51.70  0.28  19.15   3217.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.70 50.20  0.04  19.45   3237.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  71.70 50.40  0.13  20.05   3257.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  71.70 51.10  0.06  20.40   3277.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  72.60 51.10  0.01  20.85   3298.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  71.50 51.70  0.05  20.60   3318.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  71.80 52.50  0.17  21.15   3340.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  73.60 51.50  0.03  21.55   3361.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  73.00 52.10  0.09  21.55   3383.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  71.50 51.50  0.08  20.50   3403.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  72.80 51.00  0.00  20.90   3424.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  76.60 50.10  0.04  22.35   3446.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  74.10 51.40  0.17  21.75   3468.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  72.00 50.90  0.01  20.45   3489.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  69.90 50.80  0.02  19.35   3508.5  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C.
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2047 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 7 days ahead 2017 ok
 13 days behind 2016 ok
 11 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-18-18 853peak pheromone trap catch
 5-23-18 959peak female adult emergence
 5-26-18 1014peak egg laying
 6-12-18 1279peak egg hatch
 7-15-18 2073peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)