Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 30.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 0.5 1 7 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 0.5 1 8 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 0.9 1 9 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 2.3 1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 3.6 1 11 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 3.6 1 12 33.80 32.00 0.00 0.00 3.6 1 13 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 3.6 1 14 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 8.9 1 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 12.8 1 16 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 19.1 1 17 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 26.3 1 18 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 32.6 1 19 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 34.4 1 20 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 36.6 1 21 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 42.0 1 22 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 43.9 1 23 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 43.9 1 24 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 45.0 1 25 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 45.0 1 26 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 45.4 1 27 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 45.4 1 28 45.30 33.70 0.00 1.16 46.6 Hx Hn 1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 50.5 1 30 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 52.7 1 31 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 53.1 2 1 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 53.1 2 2 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 57.9 2 3 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 65.1 2 4 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 73.2 2 5 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 78.6 2 6 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 82.2 2 7 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 88.5 2 8 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 95.7 2 9 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 95.7 2 10 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 95.7 2 11 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 96.5 2 12 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 13 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 14 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 15 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 96.5 2 16 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 98.2 2 17 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 99.6 2 18 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 99.6 2 19 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 99.6 2 20 47.40 19.40 0.00 1.33 101.0 Hx 2 21 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 22 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 23 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 24 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 101.0 2 25 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 101.3 2 26 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 101.3 2 27 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 101.7 2 28 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 102.1 3 1 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 103.8 3 2 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 103.8 3 3 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 104.7 3 4 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 104.7 3 5 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 105.5 3 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 108.6 3 7 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 111.4 3 8 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 113.6 3 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 117.2 3 10 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 122.3 3 11 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 130.6 3 12 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 143.2 3 13 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 154.9 3 14 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 157.6 3 15 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 163.0 3 16 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 169.0 3 17 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 173.4 3 18 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 177.3 3 19 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 180.6 3 20 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 183.9 3 21 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 191.7 3 22 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 195.0 3 23 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 196.0 3 24 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 196.4 3 25 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 198.3 3 26 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 200.1 3 27 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 208.2 3 28 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 214.5 3 29 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 218.1 3 30 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 224.4 3 31 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 230.1 4 1 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 232.4 4 2 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 235.1 4 3 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 238.2 4 4 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 242.7 4 5 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 247.2 4 6 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 259.8 4 7 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 271.5 4 8 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 279.6 4 9 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 291.3 4 10 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 302.1 4 11 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 309.3 4 12 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 314.1 4 13 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 319.5 4 14 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 325.8 4 15 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 333.9 4 16 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 338.4 4 17 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 344.7 4 18 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 353.0 4 19 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 360.8 4 20 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 370.7 4 21 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 380.6 4 22 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 388.9 4 23 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 403.3 4 24 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 420.4 4 25 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 442.0 4 26 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 467.2 4 27 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 480.7 4 28 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 490.6 4 29 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 499.6 4 30 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 510.4 5 1 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 523.9 5 2 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 537.4 5 3 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 555.4 5 4 57.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 568.0 5 5 71.60 42.80 0.00 16.20 584.2 5 6 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 609.4 5 7 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 630.1 5 8 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 654.4 5 9 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 672.4 5 10 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 685.0 5 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 701.2 5 12 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 721.9 5 13 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 746.2 5 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 775.0 5 15 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 797.5 5 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 817.3 5 17 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 835.3 5 18 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 853.3 peak pheromone trap catch 5 19 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 874.0
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 874QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 8 days ahead 2017 ok
 18 days behind 2016 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for CYXX data
  5 20  65.20 54.10  0.00  18.65    892.7  0.003_9.65%_precip.    
  5 21  71.70 47.60  0.00  18.65    911.3  0.00_9.77%_precip.    
  5 22  79.20 47.30  0.00  22.25    933.6  0.00_13.36%_precip.    
  5 23  84.20 51.20  0.00  26.70    960.3  0.00_17.70%_precip.   peak female adult emergence
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg CYXX 2006-2015
  5 24  62.40 47.10  0.13  13.75    974.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  66.10 48.30  0.06  16.20    990.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  64.50 49.70  0.14  16.10   1006.3  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  5 27  63.90 49.80  0.14  15.85   1022.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  63.00 49.00  0.16  15.00   1037.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  64.40 48.30  0.08  15.35   1052.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  65.10 47.90  0.02  15.50   1068.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  67.20 48.00  0.11  16.60   1084.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  69.30 50.10  0.09  18.70   1103.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  67.30 51.10  0.15  18.20   1121.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  68.30 50.30  0.08  18.30   1139.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  68.60 50.00  0.11  18.30   1158.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  68.60 50.50  0.07  18.55   1176.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  67.90 50.20  0.10  18.05   1194.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  67.50 51.00  0.05  18.25   1213.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  67.30 50.10  0.12  17.70   1230.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  67.20 49.60  0.09  17.40   1248.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  66.70 50.00  0.16  17.35   1265.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  65.90 49.60  0.04  16.75   1282.2  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6 12  67.10 49.70  0.04  17.40   1299.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  68.00 50.40  0.07  18.20   1317.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  66.30 50.70  0.10  17.50   1335.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  65.40 49.70  0.03  16.55   1351.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  69.20 49.50  0.02  18.35   1370.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  67.10 51.30  0.11  18.20   1388.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  65.70 51.80  0.06  17.75   1406.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  66.30 51.10  0.03  17.70   1423.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  67.00 50.20  0.09  17.60   1441.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  67.70 50.70  0.09  18.20   1459.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  70.60 51.90  0.00  20.25   1479.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  68.60 51.10  0.10  18.85   1498.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  70.60 51.40  0.14  20.00   1518.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  70.10 52.60  0.15  20.35   1539.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  72.00 52.90  0.04  21.45   1560.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  72.50 52.60  0.01  21.55   1582.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  73.20 54.20  0.04  22.70   1604.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  74.50 54.40  0.03  23.45   1628.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  74.50 54.70  0.07  23.60   1651.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  75.70 53.70  0.05  23.70   1675.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  76.20 53.20  0.01  23.70   1699.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  76.20 53.80  0.06  24.00   1723.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  73.10 53.80  0.06  22.45   1745.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  74.00 53.40  0.00  22.70   1768.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  75.40 53.90  0.01  23.65   1792.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  73.10 53.70  0.02  22.40   1814.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  74.80 53.90  0.04  23.35   1837.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  77.50 54.10  0.04  24.80   1862.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  77.80 54.70  0.00  25.25   1887.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  75.00 54.00  0.00  23.50   1911.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  76.80 54.20  0.00  24.50   1935.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  73.80 55.20  0.08  23.50   1959.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  73.60 54.70  0.02  23.15   1982.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  76.00 54.20  0.02  24.10   2006.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  76.80 55.40  0.02  25.10   2031.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  78.50 55.00  0.02  25.75   2057.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  74.70 54.40  0.04  23.55   2081.0  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 19  74.30 54.90  0.03  23.60   2104.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  75.60 55.40  0.01  24.50   2129.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  73.80 55.20  0.11  23.50   2152.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  76.60 55.60  0.07  25.10   2177.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  73.60 55.40  0.04  23.50   2201.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  73.10 55.00  0.16  23.05   2224.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  75.50 54.40  0.21  23.95   2248.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  76.00 54.50  0.03  24.25   2272.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  75.90 55.70  0.00  24.80   2297.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  76.30 54.90  0.00  24.60   2321.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  77.30 55.00  0.00  25.15   2347.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  77.10 55.60  0.02  25.35   2372.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  76.90 54.30  0.02  24.60   2396.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  76.10 53.20  0.03  23.65   2420.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  76.50 54.20  0.00  24.35   2444.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  76.20 54.80  0.02  24.50   2469.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  77.30 54.90  0.00  25.10   2494.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  78.90 55.10  0.01  26.00   2520.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  77.00 55.00  0.00  25.00   2545.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  75.80 54.90  0.00  24.35   2569.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  73.60 55.50  0.04  23.55   2593.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  72.60 55.30  0.01  22.95   2616.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  73.60 54.90  0.15  23.25   2639.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  74.30 54.90  0.17  23.60   2663.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  76.80 53.90  0.06  24.35   2687.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  76.40 55.10  0.04  24.75   2712.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  75.90 55.00  0.04  24.45   2736.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  76.20 56.10  0.02  25.15   2761.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  77.40 56.00  0.00  25.70   2787.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  78.00 55.50  0.00  25.75   2813.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  78.10 55.40  0.00  25.75   2839.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  76.10 55.30  0.02  24.70   2863.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  75.20 55.50  0.08  24.35   2888.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  74.00 54.20  0.07  23.10   2911.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  73.80 53.90  0.03  22.85   2934.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  74.10 53.70  0.06  22.90   2957.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  75.50 53.50  0.02  23.50   2980.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  74.70 51.80  0.10  22.25   3002.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  75.20 52.50  0.01  22.85   3025.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  75.30 53.30  0.06  23.30   3048.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  76.00 53.20  0.06  23.60   3072.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  74.10 54.80  0.15  23.45   3096.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  71.70 54.30  0.26  22.00   3118.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  70.80 52.70  0.06  20.75   3138.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  68.60 51.70  0.28  19.15   3157.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.70 50.20  0.04  19.45   3177.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  71.70 50.40  0.13  20.05   3197.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  71.70 51.10  0.06  20.40   3217.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  72.60 51.10  0.01  20.85   3238.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  71.50 51.70  0.05  20.60   3259.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  71.80 52.50  0.17  21.15   3280.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  73.60 51.50  0.03  21.55   3301.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  73.00 52.10  0.09  21.55   3323.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  71.50 51.50  0.08  20.50   3344.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  72.80 51.00  0.00  20.90   3364.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  76.60 50.10  0.04  22.35   3387.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  74.10 51.40  0.17  21.75   3409.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  72.00 50.90  0.01  20.45   3429.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  69.90 50.80  0.02  19.35   3448.8  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C.
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 874 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 8 days ahead 2017 ok
 18 days behind 2016 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-18-18 853peak pheromone trap catch
 5-23-18 960peak female adult emergence
 5-26-18 1006peak egg laying
 6-11-18 1282peak egg hatch
 7-18-18 2081peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)