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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 0.9
1 7 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.9
1 8 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 1.2
1 9 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 1.9
1 10 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 2.2
1 11 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 2.2
1 12 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 2.6
1 13 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 4.5
1 14 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 6.1
1 15 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 6.1
1 16 41.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 6.1
1 17 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 7.2
1 18 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 9.1
1 19 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 11.0
1 20 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 13.7
1 21 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 15.5
1 22 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 21.8
1 23 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 23.6
1 24 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 25.9
1 25 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 27.7
1 26 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 30.4
1 27 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 38.5
1 28 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 46.6
1 29 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 47.9
1 30 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 48.3
1 31 41.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 48.3
2 1 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 48.3
2 2 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 48.7
2 3 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 49.2
2 4 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 53.7
2 5 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 61.8
2 6 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 64.5
2 7 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 66.4
2 8 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 73.8
2 9 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 81.7
2 10 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 90.7
2 11 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 96.1
2 12 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 106.0
2 13 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 110.5
2 14 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 115.9
2 15 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 123.1
2 16 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 129.4
2 17 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 135.7
2 18 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 142.0
2 19 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 146.5
2 20 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 149.5
2 21 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 151.2
2 22 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 156.0
2 23 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 160.6
2 24 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 168.7
2 25 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 177.1
2 26 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 184.5
2 27 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 191.7
2 28 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 198.0
2 29 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 203.4
3 1 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 209.7
3 2 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 217.8
3 3 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 227.7
3 4 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 236.7
3 5 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 248.4
3 6 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 257.4
3 7 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 260.1
3 8 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 264.0
3 9 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 268.5
3 10 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 276.6
3 11 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 281.0
3 12 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 286.4
3 13 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 289.1
3 14 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 291.3
3 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 295.2
3 16 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 298.8
3 17 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 304.5
3 18 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 315.3
3 19 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 326.1
3 20 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 336.0
3 21 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 345.9
3 22 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 354.9
3 23 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 360.3
3 24 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 364.8
3 25 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 371.1
3 26 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 379.2
3 27 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 385.5
3 28 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 392.1
3 29 66.20 37.40 0.00 11.35 403.4
3 30 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 416.9
3 31 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 432.2
4 1 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 445.7
4 2 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 457.4
4 3 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 471.8
4 4 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 481.7
4 5 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 488.9
4 6 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 503.3
4 7 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 525.8
4 8 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 545.6
4 9 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 558.2
4 10 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 567.2
4 11 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 578.0
4 12 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 587.9
4 13 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 595.1
4 14 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 602.3
4 15 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 610.4
4 16 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 623.9
4 17 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 645.5
4 18 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 674.3
4 19 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 701.3
4 20 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 729.2
4 21 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 750.8
4 22 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 765.2
4 23 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 779.6
4 24 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 788.6
4 25 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 796.7
4 26 60.80 37.40 0.00 8.71 805.4
4 27 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 817.1
4 28 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 833.3
4 29 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 848.6
4 30 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 862.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 1 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 882.8
5 2 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 910.7
5 3 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 933.2
5 4 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 946.7
5 5 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 963.8 Peak female adult emergence
5 6 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 985.2
5 7 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1005.9 Peak egg laying
5 8 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1020.3
5 9 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 1032.9
5 10 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1051.8
5 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1069.8
5 12 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1089.6
5 13 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1117.5
5 14 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1140.0
5 15 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1156.2
5 16 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1172.4
5 17 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1192.2
5 18 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1208.4
5 19 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 1221.0
5 20 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1238.1
5 21 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1254.3
5 22 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1270.5 Peak egg hatch
5 23 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1284.9
5 24 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1302.0
5 25 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1319.1
5 26 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1332.6
5 27 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 1345.2
5 28 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 1356.9
5 29 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1373.1
5 30 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 1389.3
5 31 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1412.7
6 1 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1436.1
6 2 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 1456.8
6 3 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 1482.9
6 4 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1513.5
6 5 87.80 60.80 0.00 33.30 1546.8
6 6 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 1575.6
6 7 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1600.8
6 8 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1620.6
6 9 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1636.8
6 10 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1653.9
6 11 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1668.3
6 12 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1687.2
6 13 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1702.5
6 14 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 1712.4
6 15 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1725.0
6 16 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1738.5
6 17 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1757.4
6 18 57.20 53.60 0.00 14.40 1771.8
6 19 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1789.8
6 20 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 1807.8
6 21 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1826.7
6 22 73.40 50.90 0.00 21.15 1847.9 Hn
6 23 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1867.7
6 24 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1884.8
6 25 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1906.4
6 26 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1930.7
6 27 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1958.6
6 28 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1982.9
6 29 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2005.4
6 30 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 2025.2
7 1 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 2044.1
7 2 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2068.4
7 3 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2090.9 Peak in density large larvae
7 4 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 2109.8
7 5 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 2126.9
7 6 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2147.6
7 7 64.40 57.20 0.00 19.80 2167.4
7 8 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2191.7
7 9 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2214.2
7 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2237.6
7 11 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 2258.3
7 12 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2282.6
7 13 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2305.1
7 14 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2327.6
7 15 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2348.3
7 16 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2371.7
7 17 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2396.9
7 18 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2422.1
7 19 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2447.3
7 20 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2472.5
7 21 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2501.3
7 22 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 2527.4
7 23 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2551.7
7 24 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2578.7
7 25 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2606.6
7 26 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2632.7
7 27 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2660.6
7 28 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2690.3
7 29 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 2721.8
7 30 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2747.9
7 31 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2771.3
8 1 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2795.6
8 2 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 2816.3
8 3 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2838.8
8 4 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2864.0
8 5 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2888.3
8 6 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2909.0
8 7 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 2928.8
8 8 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2950.4
8 9 66.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 2972.0
8 10 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2998.1
8 11 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3025.1
8 12 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 3057.5
8 13 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 3089.9
8 14 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 3117.8
8 15 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3144.8
8 16 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3171.8
8 17 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3198.8
8 18 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 3232.1
8 19 93.20 71.60 0.00 41.40 3273.5
8 20 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 3305.0
8 21 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3328.4
8 22 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3349.1
8 23 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3372.5
8 24 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3404.0
8 25 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 3439.1
8 26 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3472.4
8 27 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 3498.5
8 28 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 3520.1
8 29 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 3546.2
8 30 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3566.0
8 31 64.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 3586.7
9 1 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 3607.4
9 2 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 3625.4
9 3 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 3644.3
9 4 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 3661.4
9 5 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 3675.8
9 6 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 3696.5
9 7 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 3715.4
9 8 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 3734.3
9 9 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 3753.2
9 10 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 3777.5
9 11 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3798.2
9 12 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3821.6
9 13 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 3843.2
9 14 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3863.9
9 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3884.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C. Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-30-16 | 862 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-5-16 | 964 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-7-16 | 1006 | Peak egg laying |
5-22-16 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
7-3-16 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |