Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 37.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 0.9 1 7 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.9 1 8 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 1.2 1 9 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 1.9 1 10 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 2.2 1 11 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 2.2 1 12 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 2.6 1 13 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 4.5 1 14 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 6.1 1 15 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 6.1 1 16 41.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 6.1 1 17 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 7.2 1 18 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 9.1 1 19 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 11.0 1 20 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 13.7 1 21 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 15.5 1 22 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 21.8 1 23 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 23.6 1 24 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 25.9 1 25 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 27.7 1 26 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 30.4 1 27 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 38.5 1 28 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 46.6 1 29 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 47.9 1 30 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 48.3 1 31 41.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 48.3 2 1 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 48.3 2 2 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 48.7 2 3 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 49.2 2 4 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 53.7 2 5 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 61.8 2 6 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 64.5 2 7 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 66.4 2 8 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 73.8 2 9 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 81.7 2 10 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 90.7 2 11 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 96.1 2 12 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 106.0 2 13 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 110.5 2 14 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 115.9 2 15 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 123.1 2 16 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 129.4 2 17 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 135.7 2 18 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 142.0 2 19 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 146.5 2 20 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 149.5 2 21 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 151.2 2 22 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 156.0 2 23 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 160.6 2 24 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 168.7 2 25 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 177.1 2 26 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 184.5 2 27 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 191.7 2 28 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 198.0 2 29 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 203.4 3 1 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 209.7 3 2 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 217.8 3 3 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 227.7 3 4 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 236.7 3 5 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 248.4 3 6 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 257.4 3 7 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 260.1 3 8 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 264.0 3 9 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 268.5 3 10 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 276.6 3 11 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 281.0 3 12 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 286.4 3 13 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 289.1 3 14 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 291.3 3 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 295.2 3 16 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 298.8 3 17 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 304.5 3 18 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 315.3 3 19 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 326.1 3 20 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 336.0 3 21 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 345.9 3 22 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 354.9 3 23 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 360.3 3 24 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 364.8 3 25 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 371.1 3 26 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 379.2 3 27 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 385.5 3 28 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 392.1 3 29 66.20 37.40 0.00 11.35 403.4 3 30 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 416.9 3 31 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 432.2 4 1 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 445.7 4 2 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 457.4 4 3 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 471.8 4 4 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 481.7 4 5 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 488.9 4 6 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 503.3 4 7 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 525.8 4 8 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 545.6 4 9 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 558.2 4 10 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 567.2 4 11 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 578.0 4 12 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 587.9 4 13 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 595.1 4 14 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 602.3 4 15 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 610.4 4 16 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 623.9 4 17 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 645.5 4 18 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 674.3 4 19 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 701.3 4 20 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 729.2 4 21 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 750.8 4 22 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 765.2 4 23 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 779.6 4 24 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 788.6 4 25 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 796.7 4 26 60.80 37.40 0.00 8.71 805.4 4 27 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 817.1 4 28 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 833.3 4 29 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 848.6 4 30 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 862.1 peak pheromone trap catch 5 1 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 882.8 5 2 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 910.7 5 3 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 933.2 5 4 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 946.7 5 5 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 963.8 peak female adult emergence 5 6 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 985.2 5 7 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1005.9 peak egg laying 5 8 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1020.3 5 9 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 1032.9 5 10 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1051.8 5 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1069.8 5 12 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1089.6 5 13 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1117.5 5 14 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1140.0 5 15 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1156.2 5 16 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1172.4 5 17 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1192.2 5 18 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1208.4 5 19 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 1221.0 5 20 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1238.1 5 21 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1254.3 5 22 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1270.5 peak egg hatch 5 23 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1284.9 5 24 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1302.0 5 25 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1319.1 5 26 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1332.6 5 27 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 1345.2 5 28 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 1356.9 5 29 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1373.1 5 30 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 1389.3 5 31 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1412.7 6 1 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1436.1 6 2 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 1456.8 6 3 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 1482.9 6 4 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1513.5 6 5 87.80 60.80 0.00 33.30 1546.8 6 6 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 1575.6 6 7 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1600.8 6 8 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1620.6 6 9 60.80 53.60 0.00 16.20 1636.8 6 10 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1653.9 6 11 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1668.3 6 12 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1687.2 6 13 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1702.5 6 14 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 1712.4 6 15 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1725.0 6 16 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1738.5 6 17 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1757.4 6 18 57.20 53.60 0.00 14.40 1771.8 6 19 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1789.8 6 20 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 1807.8 6 21 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1826.7 6 22 73.40 50.90 0.00 21.15 1847.9 Hn 6 23 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1867.7 6 24 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1884.8 6 25 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1906.4 6 26 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1930.7 6 27 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1958.6 6 28 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1982.9 6 29 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2005.4 6 30 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 2025.2 7 1 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 2044.1 7 2 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2068.4 7 3 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2090.9 peak in density large larvae 7 4 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 2109.8 7 5 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 2126.9 7 6 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2147.6 7 7 64.40 57.20 0.00 19.80 2167.4 7 8 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2191.7 7 9 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2214.2 7 10 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2237.6 7 11 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 2258.3 7 12 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2282.6 7 13 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2305.1 7 14 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2327.6 7 15 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 2348.3 7 16 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2371.7 7 17 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2396.9 7 18 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2422.1 7 19 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2447.3 7 20 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2472.5 7 21 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2501.3 7 22 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 2527.4 7 23 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2551.7 7 24 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2578.7 7 25 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2606.6 7 26 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2632.7 7 27 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2660.6 7 28 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2690.3 7 29 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 2721.8 7 30 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2747.9 7 31 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2771.3 8 1 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2795.6 8 2 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 2816.3 8 3 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2838.8 8 4 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2864.0 8 5 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2888.3 8 6 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2909.0 8 7 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 2928.8 8 8 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2950.4 8 9 66.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 2972.0 8 10 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2998.1 8 11 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3025.1 8 12 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 3057.5 8 13 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 3089.9 8 14 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 3117.8 8 15 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3144.8 8 16 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3171.8 8 17 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3198.8 8 18 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 3232.1 8 19 93.20 71.60 0.00 41.40 3273.5 8 20 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 3305.0 8 21 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3328.4 8 22 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3349.1 8 23 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3372.5 8 24 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3404.0 8 25 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 3439.1 8 26 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3472.4 8 27 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 3498.5 8 28 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 3520.1 8 29 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 3546.2 8 30 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3566.0 8 31 64.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 3586.7 9 1 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 3607.4 9 2 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 3625.4 9 3 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 3644.3 9 4 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 3661.4 9 5 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 3675.8 9 6 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 3696.5 9 7 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 3715.4 9 8 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 3734.3 9 9 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 3753.2 9 10 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 3777.5 9 11 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3798.2 9 12 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3821.6 9 13 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 3843.2 9 14 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3863.9 9 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3884.6 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg CYXX 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2016 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C.
QA 82% ok - Caution - 18% of data estimated  - show details/Data QA should be OK but use with caution. 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 9 days ahead 2016 ok
 4 days ahead 2015 ok
 11 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 4-30-16 862peak pheromone trap catch
 5-5-16 964peak female adult emergence
 5-7-16 1006peak egg laying
 5-22-16 1271peak egg hatch
 7-3-16 2091peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)