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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 35.60 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 0.4
1 7 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 1.8
1 8 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 5.8
1 9 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 7.5
1 10 41.00 37.40 0.00 0.00 7.5
1 11 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 8.1
1 12 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 9.8
1 13 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 10.5
1 14 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 12.7
1 15 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 12.7
1 16 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 17.5
1 17 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 18.4
1 18 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 24.7
1 19 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 28.2
1 20 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 30.7
1 21 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 31.5
1 22 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 32.9
1 23 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 41.0
1 24 55.40 51.80 0.00 12.60 53.6
1 25 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 65.3
1 26 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 72.7
1 27 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 77.1
1 28 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 82.8
1 29 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 86.9
1 30 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 90.5
1 31 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 91.9
2 1 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 94.6
2 2 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 97.3
2 3 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 101.8
2 4 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 103.9
2 5 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 108.4
2 6 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 121.0
2 7 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 132.7
2 8 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 144.4
2 9 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 153.4
2 10 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 163.3
2 11 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 172.3
2 12 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 180.4
2 13 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 193.0
2 14 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 197.8
2 15 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 203.3
2 16 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 210.7
2 17 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 219.7
2 18 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 225.0
2 19 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 230.4
2 20 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 235.8
2 21 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 242.0
2 22 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 245.3
2 23 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 250.2
2 24 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 253.8
2 25 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 255.7
2 26 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 260.2
2 27 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 267.4
2 28 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 274.0
3 1 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 276.0
3 2 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 281.0
3 3 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 283.8
3 4 51.80 26.60 0.00 3.15 287.0
3 5 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 291.4
3 6 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 298.8
3 7 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 305.9
3 8 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 313.8
3 9 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 320.6
3 10 62.60 32.00 0.00 8.44 329.0
3 11 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 339.8
3 12 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 356.0
3 13 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 370.4
3 14 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 382.1
3 15 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 385.7
3 16 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 392.7
3 17 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 400.2
3 18 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 409.2
3 19 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 417.3
3 20 51.80 46.40 0.00 8.10 425.4
3 21 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 434.4
3 22 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 439.1
3 23 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 444.5
3 24 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 450.8
3 25 54.70 44.60 0.00 8.65 459.5 Hx
3 26 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 474.8
3 27 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 488.3
3 28 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 500.9
3 29 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 508.1
3 30 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 522.5
3 31 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 532.4
4 1 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 539.6
4 2 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 545.9
4 3 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 550.7
4 4 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 555.9
4 5 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 562.5
4 6 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 568.6
4 7 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 576.9
4 8 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 586.2
4 9 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 595.7
4 10 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 603.8
4 11 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 610.1
4 12 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 614.5
4 13 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 617.2
4 14 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 623.8
4 15 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 629.5
4 16 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 640.5
4 17 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 652.2
4 18 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 663.2
4 19 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 676.7
4 20 71.60 42.80 0.00 16.20 692.9
4 21 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 705.5
4 22 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 714.5
4 23 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 719.0
4 24 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 722.9
4 25 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 730.1
4 26 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 738.0
4 27 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 755.1
4 28 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 767.7
4 29 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 777.6
4 30 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 790.2
5 1 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 803.7
5 2 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 815.4
5 3 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 828.2
5 4 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 839.0
5 5 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 846.2
5 6 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 857.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 7 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 871.4
5 8 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 892.1
5 9 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 912.8
5 10 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 930.8
5 11 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 947.0
5 12 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 962.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 13 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 975.8
5 14 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 992.0
5 15 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1008.2 Peak egg laying
5 16 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1026.2
5 17 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1046.9
5 18 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1070.3
5 19 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1091.0
5 20 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1113.5
5 21 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1137.8
5 22 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1156.7
5 23 60.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 1173.8
5 24 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1191.8
5 25 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1207.1
5 26 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1227.8
5 27 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 1252.1
5 28 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1277.3 Peak egg hatch
5 29 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1302.5
5 30 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1325.0
5 31 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1345.7
6 1 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1364.6
6 2 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1381.7
6 3 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1399.7
6 4 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1421.3
6 5 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1444.7
6 6 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1470.8
6 7 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1499.6
6 8 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1528.4
6 9 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1552.7
6 10 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1575.2
6 11 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1595.9
6 12 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1614.8
6 13 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1633.7
6 14 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 1659.8
6 15 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 1688.6
6 16 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1710.2
6 17 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1732.7
6 18 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1756.1
6 19 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1777.7
6 20 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1798.4
6 21 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1823.6
6 22 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1847.0
6 23 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1869.5
6 24 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1893.8
6 25 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1923.5
6 26 87.80 60.80 0.00 33.30 1956.8
6 27 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 1990.1
6 28 87.80 64.40 0.00 35.10 2025.2
6 29 87.80 64.40 0.00 35.10 2060.3
6 30 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2090.9 Peak in density large larvae
7 1 89.60 60.80 0.00 34.20 2125.1
7 2 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 2159.3
7 3 86.00 62.60 0.00 33.30 2192.6
7 4 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2225.0
7 5 96.80 64.40 0.00 39.60 2264.6
7 6 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2293.4
7 7 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2321.3
7 8 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2351.0
7 9 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2381.6
7 10 69.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 2405.9
7 11 66.20 62.60 0.00 23.40 2429.3
7 12 75.20 60.80 0.00 27.00 2456.3
7 13 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2482.4
7 14 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2507.6
7 15 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2531.9
7 16 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2556.2
7 17 82.40 39.20 0.00 19.96 2576.1
7 18 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 2609.4
7 19 91.40 62.60 0.00 36.00 2645.4
7 20 77.00 62.60 0.00 28.80 2674.2
7 21 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2698.5
7 22 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2721.0
7 23 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2746.2
7 24 62.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 2766.0
7 25 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2788.5
7 26 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 2809.2
7 27 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2833.5
7 28 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2859.6
7 29 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2889.3
7 30 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 2922.6
7 31 89.60 57.20 0.00 32.40 2955.0
8 1 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2986.5
8 2 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 3018.0
8 3 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 3045.9
8 4 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 3072.0
8 5 62.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 3090.0
8 6 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3113.4
8 7 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 3139.5
8 8 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 3164.7
8 9 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 3194.4
8 10 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 3224.1
8 11 89.60 57.20 0.00 32.40 3256.5
8 12 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 3288.9
8 13 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 3320.4
8 14 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 3341.1
8 15 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 3365.4
8 16 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 3391.5
8 17 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3416.7
8 18 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3448.2
8 19 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 3478.8
8 20 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 3501.3
8 21 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 3523.8
8 22 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3550.8
8 23 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 3578.7
8 24 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3600.3
8 25 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 3621.9
8 26 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3646.2
8 27 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3673.2
8 28 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 3696.6
8 29 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 3722.7
8 30 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 3744.3
8 31 60.80 57.20 0.00 18.00 3762.3
9 1 60.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 3779.4
9 2 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 3794.7
9 3 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 3807.3
9 4 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 3823.5
9 5 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 3838.8
9 6 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 3854.1
9 7 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3873.9
9 8 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 3893.7
9 9 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3917.1
9 10 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3941.4
9 11 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3968.4
9 12 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3991.8
9 13 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 4011.6
9 14 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 4025.1
9 15 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 4040.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C. Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-6-15 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-12-15 | 962 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-15-15 | 1008 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-28-15 | 1277 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-30-15 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3516849)
