Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 CWZA CANADA Agassiz Auto RePting S BC Lat:49.2500 Long:-121.7667 Elev:49 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 30.90 24.60 0.13 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 36.00 29.10 0.28 0.00 0.0 1 3 40.80 31.30 0.21 0.00 0.0 1 4 39.90 36.50 0.17 0.00 0.0 1 5 39.90 34.90 0.14 0.00 0.0 1 6 40.80 34.70 0.38 0.00 0.0 1 7 37.20 33.60 0.27 0.00 0.0 1 8 40.80 33.60 0.24 0.00 0.0 1 9 42.80 34.70 0.60 0.37 0.4 1 10 42.60 35.40 0.29 0.33 0.7 1 11 36.00 29.50 0.15 0.00 0.7 1 12 32.00 28.40 0.40 0.00 0.7 1 13 41.00 31.30 0.20 0.00 0.7 1 14 52.00 39.70 0.04 5.03 5.7 1 15 50.70 45.50 0.10 7.10 12.8 1 16 48.40 41.20 0.11 3.80 16.6 1 17 47.10 41.90 0.38 3.50 20.1 1 18 46.90 39.40 0.19 2.47 22.6 1 19 40.80 31.60 0.22 0.00 22.6 1 20 44.10 37.00 0.25 0.91 23.5 1 21 45.00 38.30 0.38 1.41 24.9 1 22 46.90 35.10 0.42 1.88 26.8 1 23 40.80 32.90 0.50 0.00 26.8 1 24 41.50 32.90 0.36 0.05 26.9 1 25 40.50 31.30 0.29 0.00 26.9 1 26 43.00 34.00 0.24 0.41 27.3 1 27 39.90 33.10 0.45 0.00 27.3 1 28 40.50 34.90 0.68 0.00 27.3 1 29 46.60 39.70 1.85 2.39 29.7 1 30 46.60 39.20 0.08 2.29 31.9 1 31 40.60 36.10 0.24 0.00 31.9 2 1 41.70 32.90 0.37 0.08 32.0 2 2 48.40 38.30 0.81 2.96 35.0 2 3 49.50 45.50 1.38 6.50 41.5 2 4 52.00 38.30 1.01 4.67 46.2 2 5 48.70 43.00 0.12 4.85 51.0 2 6 44.60 38.50 0.39 1.26 52.3 2 7 48.90 43.30 0.46 5.10 57.4 2 8 53.10 41.00 0.43 6.05 63.4 2 9 40.30 34.70 0.00 0.00 63.4 2 10 39.70 28.20 0.01 0.00 63.4 2 11 45.30 30.00 0.00 1.00 64.4 2 12 39.60 29.50 0.01 0.00 64.4 2 13 41.00 27.00 0.02 0.00 64.4 2 14 38.50 31.60 0.33 0.00 64.4 2 15 40.60 30.40 0.05 0.00 64.4 2 16 44.10 31.30 0.65 0.66 65.1 2 17 43.50 31.30 1.12 0.49 65.6 2 18 36.50 27.30 0.02 0.00 65.6 2 19 33.30 25.00 0.00 0.00 65.6 2 20 35.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 65.6 2 21 36.00 23.00 0.01 0.00 65.6 Mx Mn 2 22 38.10 26.10 0.00 0.00 65.6 2 23 29.30 25.20 0.36 0.00 65.6 2 24 37.20 27.70 0.31 0.00 65.6 2 25 42.30 34.30 0.19 0.23 65.8 2 26 38.50 31.30 0.14 0.00 65.8 2 27 41.50 33.30 0.33 0.05 65.9 2 28 43.20 32.90 0.00 0.44 66.3 3 1 43.00 36.70 0.20 0.50 66.8 3 2 38.80 31.30 0.42 0.00 66.8 3 3 43.00 32.90 0.24 0.39 67.2 3 4 37.20 31.30 0.06 0.00 67.2 3 5 43.30 31.30 0.04 0.44 67.6 3 6 47.50 32.90 0.00 1.94 69.5 3 7 49.30 34.70 0.00 2.85 72.4 3 8 45.90 38.70 0.73 1.87 74.3 3 9 49.30 37.00 0.35 3.15 77.4 3 10 53.20 34.30 0.00 4.51 81.9 3 11 60.40 40.10 0.00 9.33 91.3 3 12 65.10 45.90 0.01 14.50 105.8 3 13 56.70 45.90 0.12 10.30 116.1 3 14 46.80 36.70 0.18 2.00 118.1 3 15 55.00 36.10 0.00 5.64 123.7 3 16 58.80 42.30 0.00 9.55 133.2 3 17 56.50 40.60 0.00 7.58 140.8 3 18 52.00 37.80 0.01 4.56 145.4 3 19 50.20 37.60 0.00 3.67 149.1 3 20 50.70 38.50 0.00 4.09 153.1 3 21 60.10 41.50 0.00 9.80 162.9 3 22 51.60 34.30 0.42 3.80 166.7 3 23 43.30 33.30 0.11 0.48 167.2 3 24 45.90 34.30 0.00 1.42 168.6 3 25 49.50 31.30 0.05 2.60 171.2 3 26 44.20 39.00 0.61 1.15 172.4 3 27 55.20 41.90 0.47 7.55 179.9 3 28 51.60 44.10 0.00 6.85 186.8 3 29 46.60 41.50 0.13 3.05 189.8 3 30 56.50 45.00 0.18 9.75 199.6 3 31 55.00 43.00 0.00 8.00 207.6 4 1 46.80 38.30 0.14 2.22 209.8 4 2 48.40 33.60 0.10 2.36 212.2 4 3 48.20 39.00 0.01 3.00 215.2 4 4 51.40 38.30 0.05 4.38 219.6 4 5 49.60 41.90 0.41 4.75 224.3 4 6 58.80 45.50 0.04 11.15 235.5 4 7 54.50 48.40 0.21 10.45 245.9 4 8 55.90 46.20 0.17 10.05 256.0 4 9 58.60 46.90 0.03 11.75 267.7 4 10 52.50 43.20 0.20 6.85 274.6 4 11 54.10 41.90 0.10 7.00 281.6 4 12 50.40 39.00 0.33 4.06 285.6 4 13 45.10 39.70 0.77 1.68 287.3 4 14 52.20 42.40 0.62 6.30 293.6 4 15 57.70 42.60 0.17 9.15 302.7 4 16 53.20 41.90 0.76 6.55 309.3 4 17 52.70 42.30 0.19 6.50 315.8 4 18 58.30 40.10 0.02 8.29 324.1 4 19 59.90 42.60 0.01 10.25 334.3 4 20 61.00 39.70 0.05 9.49 343.8 4 21 55.90 44.60 0.30 9.25 353.1 4 22 61.00 36.50 0.02 8.58 361.7 4 23 71.40 45.70 0.05 17.55 379.2 4 24 74.50 49.10 0.00 20.80 400.0 4 25 77.70 54.10 0.01 24.90 424.9 4 26 83.10 56.30 0.02 28.70 453.6 4 27 70.00 56.80 0.00 22.40 476.0 4 28 53.10 48.70 0.11 9.90 485.9 4 29 54.00 47.50 0.07 9.75 495.7 4 30 55.20 47.30 0.05 10.25 505.9 5 1 63.70 47.30 0.25 14.50 520.4 5 2 68.00 41.20 0.00 13.60 534.0 5 3 72.70 45.90 0.00 18.30 552.3 5 4 59.40 50.50 0.00 13.95 566.3 5 5 74.10 46.20 0.00 19.15 585.4 5 6 79.30 60.30 0.00 28.80 614.2 5 7 71.40 49.10 0.00 19.25 633.5 5 8 82.00 52.30 0.04 26.15 659.6 5 9 62.80 50.90 0.26 15.85 675.5 5 10 60.40 48.70 0.19 13.55 689.0 5 11 68.50 49.60 0.00 18.05 707.1 5 12 78.10 50.00 0.00 23.05 730.1 5 13 88.00 59.90 0.01 32.95 763.1 5 14 86.00 62.80 0.00 33.40 796.5 5 15 79.30 60.60 0.00 28.95 825.4 5 16 69.80 54.50 0.00 21.15 846.6 5 17 66.60 56.10 0.00 20.35 866.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 18 65.80 57.40 0.00 20.60 887.5 5 19 66.40 55.90 0.00 20.15 907.7 5 20 64.40 54.50 0.13 18.45 926.1 5 21 70.70 54.70 0.00 21.70 947.8 5 22 79.50 49.10 0.00 23.30 971.1 peak female adult emergence 5 23 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 998.3 5 24 71.40 55.90 0.00 22.65 1021.0 peak egg laying 5 25 70.50 51.30 0.00 19.90 1040.9 5 26 65.30 48.40 0.00 15.85 1056.7 5 27 74.10 48.70 0.00 20.40 1077.1 5 28 70.50 52.70 0.00 20.60 1097.7 5 29 66.20 50.50 0.00 17.35 1115.1 5 30 67.30 46.60 0.00 15.95 1131.0 5 31 63.70 43.70 0.00 12.70 1143.7 6 1 61.30 52.50 0.01 15.90 1159.6 6 2 74.30 52.70 0.01 22.50 1182.1 6 3 59.70 49.10 0.70 13.40 1195.5 6 4 64.60 47.70 0.01 15.15 1210.7 6 5 63.50 46.20 0.00 13.85 1224.5 6 6 73.00 47.30 0.00 19.15 1243.7 6 7 63.70 48.00 0.00 14.85 1258.5 6 8 61.50 50.90 0.34 15.20 1273.7 peak egg hatch 6 9 64.40 49.10 0.30 15.75 1289.5 6 10 59.90 46.80 0.26 12.35 1301.8 6 11 62.80 47.30 0.33 14.05 1315.9 6 12 65.10 46.00 0.00 14.55 1330.4 6 13 57.60 52.00 0.74 13.80 1344.2 6 14 63.00 51.80 0.08 16.40 1360.6 6 15 69.60 51.80 0.00 19.70 1380.3 6 16 82.80 54.00 0.01 27.40 1407.7 6 17 87.60 62.80 0.01 34.20 1441.9 6 18 87.30 62.40 0.01 33.85 1475.8 6 19 84.70 56.30 0.00 29.50 1505.3 6 20 87.30 58.50 0.00 31.90 1537.2 6 21 67.80 61.70 0.00 23.75 1560.9 6 22 64.60 58.10 0.00 20.35 1581.3 6 23 70.30 56.30 0.00 22.30 1603.6 6 24 80.20 55.60 0.02 26.90 1630.5 6 25 71.00 56.30 0.40 22.65 1653.1 6 26 67.00 52.70 0.11 18.85 1672.0 6 27 65.00 55.00 0.00 19.00 1691.0 Mx Mn 6 28 64.00 56.00 0.00 19.00 1710.0 Mx Mn 6 29 63.70 57.00 0.00 19.35 1729.3 Mn 6 30 61.50 58.80 0.15 19.15 1748.5 7 1 68.00 53.60 0.07 19.80 1768.3 7 2 63.70 50.90 0.29 16.30 1784.6 7 3 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1806.2 7 4 85.10 61.90 0.01 32.50 1838.7 7 5 86.00 62.40 0.00 33.20 1871.9 7 6 75.70 60.30 0.07 27.00 1898.9 7 7 69.40 57.40 0.67 22.40 1921.3 7 8 78.30 57.00 0.00 26.65 1947.9 7 9 73.60 55.90 0.04 23.75 1971.7 7 10 66.70 58.10 0.00 21.40 1993.1 7 11 80.60 57.70 0.00 28.15 2021.2 7 12 83.70 56.10 0.00 28.90 2050.1 7 13 81.30 55.80 0.00 27.55 2077.7 peak in density large larvae 7 14 88.90 56.70 0.00 31.80 2109.5
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2109QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 7 days ahead 2017 ok
 13 days behind 2016 ok
 NA 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for CWZA data
  7 15  86.70 62.70  0.00  33.70   2143.2  0.00_24.70%_precip.    
  7 16  83.40 61.60  0.00  31.50   2174.7  0.00_22.50%_precip.    
  7 17  81.50 59.60  0.00  29.55   2204.2  0.00_20.55%_precip.    
  7 18  70.20 60.20  0.01  24.20   2228.4  0.009_15.20%_precip.    
  7 19  73.10 54.20  0.00  22.65   2251.1  0.00_13.65%_precip.    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 CWZA Agassiz Auto RePting
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2109 QA 98% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 5-17-18 867peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-18 971peak female adult emergence
 5-24-18 1021peak egg laying
 6-8-18 1274peak egg hatch
 7-13-18 2078peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)