Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 CWZA CANADA Agassiz Auto RePting S BC Lat:49.2500 Long:-121.7667 Elev:49 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 36.30 30.20 0.05 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 30.60 25.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 26.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.40 25.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 29.70 21.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 37.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 37.80 30.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 39.90 31.30 0.08 0.00 0.0 1 9 32.90 24.80 0.29 0.00 0.0 1 10 31.10 23.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 11 30.20 22.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 12 26.40 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 25.30 18.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 31.80 22.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 34.90 26.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 39.90 29.50 0.13 0.00 0.0 1 17 42.60 34.20 1.50 0.30 0.3 1 18 46.80 39.60 0.98 2.47 2.8 1 19 40.50 36.50 0.59 0.00 2.8 1 20 46.40 34.00 0.01 1.59 4.4 1 21 48.90 36.10 0.00 2.84 7.2 1 22 45.10 37.40 0.04 1.35 8.6 1 23 46.20 31.30 0.00 1.36 9.9 1 24 43.50 29.50 0.00 0.46 10.4 1 25 41.20 31.30 0.00 0.01 10.4 1 26 45.00 31.60 0.00 0.96 11.3 1 27 47.50 29.70 0.00 1.74 13.1 1 28 46.90 31.60 0.00 1.62 14.7 1 29 41.00 32.00 0.02 0.00 14.7 1 30 44.40 37.80 0.03 1.10 15.8 1 31 42.10 35.80 0.00 0.20 16.0 2 1 41.40 33.40 0.00 0.04 16.0 2 2 41.90 33.10 0.00 0.12 16.2 2 3 34.20 27.70 0.17 0.00 16.2 2 4 33.10 27.10 0.44 0.00 16.2 2 5 32.90 25.30 0.26 0.00 16.2 2 6 29.30 24.10 0.03 0.00 16.2 2 7 30.20 24.10 0.02 0.00 16.2 2 8 28.80 24.10 0.05 0.00 16.2 2 9 34.00 27.00 1.69 0.00 16.2 2 10 43.70 31.50 0.14 0.55 16.7 2 11 43.70 32.90 0.00 0.59 17.3 2 12 46.00 30.40 0.00 1.24 18.5 2 13 55.60 37.00 0.00 6.11 24.7 2 14 52.50 40.60 0.05 5.58 30.2 2 15 49.80 40.10 1.67 4.07 34.3 2 16 50.20 41.00 0.41 4.60 38.9 2 17 52.00 39.40 0.03 4.95 43.8 2 18 46.40 40.10 0.11 2.40 46.2 2 19 47.80 38.30 0.18 2.68 48.9 2 20 46.90 37.40 0.11 2.13 51.1 2 21 46.90 37.00 0.00 2.08 53.1 2 22 44.80 30.70 0.21 0.86 54.0 2 23 44.40 31.60 0.00 0.77 54.8 2 24 45.50 30.90 0.00 1.10 55.9 2 25 39.70 28.20 0.12 0.00 55.9 2 26 43.30 31.50 0.20 0.44 56.3 2 27 36.50 27.10 0.15 0.00 56.3 2 28 37.60 23.20 0.06 0.00 56.3 3 1 47.80 32.90 0.23 2.06 58.4 3 2 44.40 36.50 0.24 0.99 59.3 3 3 44.40 36.90 1.27 1.02 60.4 3 4 42.30 31.30 0.24 0.19 60.6 3 5 39.40 33.10 0.06 0.00 60.6 3 6 43.50 31.30 0.14 0.49 61.1 3 7 39.70 31.50 0.29 0.00 61.1 3 8 43.30 32.90 0.22 0.47 61.5 3 9 40.50 31.30 0.41 0.00 61.5 3 10 50.50 36.50 0.92 3.62 65.1 3 11 46.20 40.10 0.78 2.30 67.4 3 12 52.00 43.70 0.13 6.85 74.3 3 13 48.70 43.70 0.49 5.20 79.5 3 14 52.20 45.50 0.95 7.85 87.3 3 15 50.20 45.30 0.73 6.75 94.1 3 16 48.70 37.80 0.12 3.01 97.1 3 17 48.20 36.30 0.28 2.56 99.7 3 18 46.80 39.90 1.67 2.54 102.2 3 19 49.60 35.40 0.03 3.06 105.3 3 20 55.60 39.00 0.00 6.60 111.9 3 21 48.90 44.20 0.03 5.55 117.4 3 22 53.40 43.00 0.11 7.20 124.6 3 23 54.50 39.90 0.01 6.33 130.9 3 24 53.10 41.90 0.44 6.50 137.4 3 25 50.00 40.10 0.11 4.17 141.6 3 26 49.30 40.10 0.06 3.82 145.4 3 27 54.30 42.40 0.22 7.35 152.8 3 28 47.50 41.90 0.85 3.70 156.5 3 29 50.90 43.20 0.55 6.05 162.5 3 30 54.10 43.70 0.05 7.90 170.4 3 31 54.10 41.90 0.00 7.00 177.4 4 1 52.20 44.80 0.53 7.50 184.9 4 2 50.50 42.10 0.12 5.30 190.2 4 3 55.80 38.70 0.00 6.61 196.8 4 4 53.00 42.00 0.00 6.50 203.3 Mx Mn 4 5 50.40 43.00 0.38 5.70 209.0 Mn 4 6 52.50 45.70 0.18 8.10 217.1 4 7 51.80 46.20 0.20 8.00 225.1 4 8 51.60 40.80 0.24 5.21 230.4 4 9 55.40 39.40 0.04 6.62 237.0 4 10 51.60 42.30 0.04 5.95 242.9 4 11 58.60 39.40 0.01 8.20 251.1 4 12 55.80 47.50 0.00 10.65 261.8 4 13 54.90 43.20 0.50 8.05 269.8 4 14 53.40 42.60 0.27 7.00 276.8 4 15 54.30 40.10 0.17 6.30 283.1 4 16 62.80 42.40 0.00 11.60 294.7 4 17 57.60 47.30 0.13 11.45 306.2 4 18 57.20 46.20 0.91 10.70 316.9 4 19 52.20 43.70 0.03 6.95 323.8 4 20 55.80 43.70 0.37 8.75 332.6 4 21 66.20 45.50 0.02 14.85 347.4 4 22 59.90 49.50 0.07 13.70 361.1 4 23 58.50 47.30 0.10 11.90 373.0 4 24 60.10 44.40 0.08 11.25 384.3 4 25 57.60 48.90 0.00 12.25 396.5 4 26 57.40 46.00 0.32 10.70 407.2 4 27 54.90 43.70 0.21 8.30 415.5 4 28 57.60 45.10 0.01 10.35 425.9 4 29 54.00 37.80 0.33 5.52 431.4 4 30 56.70 43.70 0.14 9.20 440.6 5 1 53.80 44.10 0.11 7.95 448.5 5 2 64.60 40.80 0.00 11.71 460.2 5 3 57.70 50.90 0.22 13.30 473.5 5 4 76.50 52.90 0.25 23.70 497.2 5 5 61.90 48.60 0.41 14.25 511.5 5 6 55.90 42.10 0.00 8.00 519.5 5 7 61.30 40.60 0.00 9.97 529.5 5 8 64.00 42.10 0.00 12.05 541.5 5 9 67.30 45.50 0.00 15.40 556.9 5 10 68.50 50.90 0.00 18.70 575.6 5 11 60.30 50.20 0.53 14.25 589.9 5 12 55.90 45.00 0.03 9.45 599.3 Mn 5 13 56.10 41.20 0.00 7.65 607.0 5 14 59.20 42.80 0.00 10.00 617.0 5 15 48.90 45.70 0.37 6.30 623.3 5 16 47.10 43.70 0.66 4.40 627.7 5 17 57.70 43.70 0.00 9.70 637.4 5 18 65.50 49.80 0.00 16.65 654.0 5 19 68.70 47.50 0.00 17.10 671.1 5 20 73.60 49.10 0.00 20.35 691.5 5 21 78.30 51.10 0.00 23.70 715.2 5 22 82.60 58.80 0.00 29.70 744.9 5 23 78.10 56.30 0.00 26.20 771.1 5 24 60.30 49.50 0.00 13.90 785.0 5 25 73.20 45.70 0.00 18.45 803.4 5 26 78.60 54.50 0.00 25.55 829.0 5 27 83.30 55.90 0.00 28.60 857.6 peak pheromone trap catch 5 28 85.80 61.50 0.00 32.65 890.2 5 29 87.30 59.40 0.00 32.35 922.6 5 30 62.10 54.90 0.15 17.50 940.1 5 31 67.80 52.70 0.05 19.25 959.3 peak female adult emergence 6 1 65.80 57.40 0.38 20.60 979.9 6 2 68.70 54.50 0.04 20.60 1000.5 peak egg laying 6 3 61.50 51.80 0.00 15.65 1016.2 6 4 65.50 52.00 0.00 17.75 1033.9 6 5 74.70 44.60 0.00 18.65 1052.6 6 6 83.50 55.00 0.00 28.25 1080.8 6 7 83.70 57.40 0.00 29.55 1110.4 6 8 62.10 52.50 0.36 16.30 1126.7 6 9 65.80 49.10 0.03 16.45 1143.1 6 10 63.10 50.90 0.00 16.00 1159.1 6 11 68.70 55.00 0.00 20.85 1180.0 6 12 64.20 56.50 0.00 19.35 1199.3 6 13 60.40 53.60 0.00 16.00 1215.3 6 14 60.40 51.60 0.00 15.00 1230.3 6 15 58.80 50.70 0.41 13.75 1244.1 6 16 65.10 53.80 0.39 18.45 1262.5 6 17 65.10 52.70 0.00 17.90 1280.4 peak egg hatch 6 18 60.30 52.90 0.04 15.60 1296.0 6 19 69.60 54.30 0.00 20.95 1317.0 6 20 71.80 57.70 0.13 23.75 1340.7 6 21 67.50 52.20 0.00 18.85 1359.6 6 22 76.60 46.60 0.00 20.60 1380.2 6 23 81.90 53.10 0.00 26.50 1406.7 6 24 90.30 60.10 0.00 34.20 1440.9 QA 98% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for CWZA data
  6 25  91.90 69.60  0.00  39.75   1480.6  0.00_30.75%_precip.    
  6 26  73.50 59.20  0.00  25.35   1506.0  0.00_16.35%_precip.    
  6 27  66.60 54.70  0.00  19.65   1525.6  0.00_10.65%_precip.    
  6 28  66.00 53.60  0.02  18.80   1544.4  0.021_9.80%_precip.    
  6 29  68.40 55.10  0.00  20.75   1565.2  0.00_11.75%_precip.    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 CWZA Agassiz Auto RePting
QA 98% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 5-27-17 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-31-17 959peak female adult emergence
 6-2-17 1001peak egg laying
 6-17-17 1280peak egg hatch
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)