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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 36.50 26.10 0.01 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 43.40 26.00 0.00 0.38 0.4
1 3 53.50 40.40 0.02 6.00 6.4
1 4 48.90 42.10 0.12 4.50 10.9
1 5 48.50 38.20 0.03 2.99 13.9
1 6 44.60 35.50 0.19 1.00 14.9
1 7 45.00 30.60 0.01 0.92 15.8
1 8 44.70 39.30 0.24 1.42 17.2
1 9 52.00 37.60 0.37 4.52 21.7
1 10 58.40 43.10 0.02 9.75 31.5
1 11 52.20 38.60 0.00 4.84 36.3
1 12 51.00 30.50 0.00 3.14 39.5
1 13 51.30 28.80 0.00 3.12 42.6
1 14 48.70 26.00 0.00 1.98 44.6
1 15 43.60 34.80 0.00 0.62 45.2
1 16 42.10 32.60 0.10 0.16 45.3
1 17 50.80 37.10 0.29 3.86 49.2
1 18 51.60 40.70 0.66 5.17 54.4
1 19 53.70 45.60 0.07 8.65 63.0
1 20 45.60 40.40 0.57 2.09 65.1
1 21 47.30 34.90 0.01 2.02 67.1
1 22 47.60 39.10 0.04 2.74 69.9
1 23 54.20 38.20 0.22 5.71 75.6
1 24 51.00 33.90 0.00 3.49 79.1
1 25 51.20 34.60 0.00 3.66 82.7
1 26 40.70 31.70 0.01 0.00 82.7
1 27 40.20 36.80 0.00 0.00 82.7
1 28 52.70 37.00 0.00 4.73 87.5
1 29 52.20 32.50 0.00 3.84 91.3
1 30 51.50 27.60 0.01 3.11 94.4
1 31 48.40 28.70 0.00 2.01 96.4
2 1 50.50 37.90 0.17 3.87 100.3
2 2 50.10 39.40 0.04 4.02 104.3
2 3 45.20 36.80 0.30 1.34 105.6
2 4 41.80 31.10 0.05 0.09 105.7
2 5 37.50 28.60 0.17 0.00 105.7
2 6 36.40 27.20 0.00 0.00 105.7
2 7 36.90 26.00 0.01 0.00 105.7
2 8 40.30 29.40 0.15 0.00 105.7
2 9 40.30 29.60 0.34 0.00 105.7
2 10 37.20 29.10 0.01 0.00 105.7
2 11 44.90 37.10 0.73 1.24 107.0
2 12 45.40 39.00 0.70 1.69 108.7
2 13 44.90 39.60 0.06 1.56 110.2
2 14 45.50 37.70 0.25 1.56 111.8
2 15 47.30 39.10 0.17 2.60 114.4
2 16 44.90 36.30 0.33 1.17 115.6
2 17 40.90 31.50 0.00 0.00 115.6
2 18 43.80 27.60 0.01 0.50 116.1
2 19 43.00 35.70 0.17 0.46 116.5
2 20 45.10 32.80 0.37 1.04 117.6
2 21 46.50 29.80 0.00 1.39 118.9
2 22 45.70 28.80 0.21 1.08 120.0
2 23 44.80 34.90 0.27 1.04 121.1
2 24 41.40 35.80 1.03 0.05 121.1
2 25 36.30 29.00 0.45 0.00 121.1
2 26 39.80 26.30 0.01 0.00 121.1
2 27 35.70 26.80 0.09 0.00 121.1
2 28 40.00 28.70 0.06 0.00 121.1
3 1 52.00 32.60 0.01 3.77 124.9
3 2 50.10 33.50 0.00 3.05 127.9
3 3 45.30 29.60 0.00 0.98 128.9
3 4 43.00 25.30 0.00 0.29 129.2
3 5 40.90 26.90 0.00 0.00 129.2
3 6 36.40 31.40 0.18 0.00 129.2
3 7 46.70 31.50 0.17 1.55 130.8
3 8 43.50 29.90 0.28 0.46 131.2
3 9 44.80 34.60 0.09 1.03 132.2
3 10 51.50 32.30 0.00 3.52 135.8
3 11 59.60 27.10 0.04 6.40 142.2
3 12 51.20 40.20 0.38 4.79 147.0
3 13 53.60 34.30 0.00 4.69 151.7
3 14 56.90 29.50 0.00 5.52 157.2
3 15 60.40 30.50 0.00 7.20 164.4
3 16 60.10 32.50 0.00 7.37 171.7
3 17 67.10 38.20 0.00 12.02 183.8
3 18 75.40 49.50 0.00 21.45 205.2
3 19 74.40 51.30 0.00 21.85 227.1
3 20 69.30 43.70 0.00 15.50 242.6
3 21 56.30 40.60 0.01 7.48 250.0
3 22 54.20 36.60 0.22 5.36 255.4
3 23 54.30 40.80 0.05 6.56 262.0
3 24 60.80 38.50 0.00 9.01 271.0
3 25 50.40 45.00 0.04 6.70 277.7
3 26 59.50 32.10 0.01 7.03 284.7
3 27 54.80 40.40 0.03 6.65 291.3
3 28 60.80 39.00 0.18 9.16 300.5
3 29 61.90 40.00 0.06 10.04 310.5
3 30 64.50 40.00 0.00 11.34 321.9
3 31 67.00 34.50 0.00 11.01 332.9
4 1 57.00 49.70 0.65 12.35 345.2
4 2 60.00 51.90 0.62 14.95 360.2
4 3 58.60 49.00 0.00 12.80 373.0
4 4 58.70 46.50 0.21 11.60 384.6
4 5 55.20 46.80 0.46 10.00 394.6
4 6 53.20 43.00 1.15 7.10 401.7
4 7 54.90 48.00 1.10 10.45 412.1
4 8 57.70 48.10 0.77 11.90 424.0
4 9 56.00 45.10 0.01 9.55 433.6
4 10 53.20 45.20 0.05 8.20 441.8
4 11 52.60 48.10 0.20 9.35 451.1
4 12 60.60 43.40 0.01 11.00 462.1
4 13 51.00 39.00 0.09 4.35 466.5
4 14 53.20 39.90 0.04 5.69 472.2
4 15 48.40 32.90 0.24 2.29 474.5
4 16 61.70 42.70 0.02 11.20 485.7
4 17 65.80 49.00 0.01 16.40 502.1
4 18 77.20 43.90 0.00 19.55 521.6
4 19 64.70 44.90 0.28 13.80 535.4
4 20 60.80 44.20 0.07 11.50 546.9
4 21 61.80 45.70 0.00 12.75 559.7
4 22 67.00 39.20 0.00 12.30 572.0
4 23 65.80 48.40 0.01 16.10 588.1
4 24 64.10 43.70 0.00 12.90 601.0
4 25 71.20 41.80 0.00 15.50 616.5
4 26 67.40 39.70 0.00 12.67 629.1
4 27 58.60 38.20 0.00 7.85 637.0
4 28 64.10 34.50 0.00 9.62 646.6
4 29 65.40 46.40 0.00 14.90 661.5
4 30 67.30 45.00 0.00 15.15 676.7
5 1 67.80 33.00 0.00 11.07 687.7
5 2 63.00 31.70 0.00 8.57 696.3
5 3 69.30 38.70 0.00 13.27 709.6
5 4 71.70 42.10 0.00 15.90 725.5
5 5 75.10 44.00 0.00 18.55 744.0
5 6 79.60 42.50 0.00 20.05 764.1
5 7 76.20 41.00 0.00 17.60 781.7
5 8 74.70 40.90 0.00 16.80 798.5
5 9 84.10 54.30 0.00 28.20 826.7
5 10 83.40 44.50 0.00 22.95 849.6
5 11 81.00 42.80 0.00 20.90 870.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 12 73.00 41.60 0.00 16.30 886.8
5 13 67.70 42.20 0.00 13.95 900.8
5 14 61.20 50.10 0.23 14.65 915.4
5 15 60.00 48.20 0.07 13.10 928.5
5 16 61.20 50.60 0.06 14.90 943.4
5 17 61.90 49.80 0.08 14.85 958.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 67.80 48.80 0.68 17.30 975.6
5 19 64.50 44.70 0.04 13.60 989.2
5 20 66.10 48.20 0.02 16.15 1005.3 Peak egg laying
5 21 65.50 48.60 0.11 16.05 1021.4
5 22 69.30 47.90 0.05 17.60 1039.0
5 23 75.00 50.10 0.01 21.55 1060.5
5 24 64.50 46.40 0.00 14.45 1075.0
5 25 57.10 45.60 0.46 10.35 1085.3
5 26 69.60 46.10 0.06 16.85 1102.2
5 27 66.00 51.60 0.00 17.80 1120.0
5 28 67.70 51.90 0.00 18.80 1138.8
5 29 75.40 43.10 0.00 18.25 1157.0
5 30 77.10 45.10 0.00 20.10 1177.1
5 31 80.30 48.10 0.00 23.20 1200.3
6 1 80.50 46.20 0.00 22.35 1222.7
6 2 80.00 50.00 0.00 24.00 1246.7
6 3 74.50 43.30 0.00 17.90 1264.6
6 4 78.90 46.10 0.00 21.50 1286.1 Peak egg hatch
6 5 70.30 46.80 0.00 17.55 1303.6
6 6 62.60 48.50 0.00 14.55 1318.2
6 7 64.00 44.50 0.10 13.25 1331.4
6 8 67.50 43.80 0.00 14.65 1346.1
6 9 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 1369.6
6 10 86.30 51.80 0.00 28.05 1397.6
6 11 92.90 60.80 0.00 35.85 1433.5
6 12 97.20 57.30 0.00 36.25 1469.7
6 13 85.40 54.60 0.00 29.00 1498.7
6 14 76.50 46.70 0.00 20.60 1519.3
6 15 78.60 48.90 0.00 22.75 1542.1
6 16 82.60 51.80 0.00 26.20 1568.3
6 17 82.80 51.50 0.00 26.15 1594.4
6 18 77.20 54.10 0.00 24.65 1619.1
6 19 71.70 44.80 0.00 17.25 1636.3
6 20 67.20 43.50 0.00 14.35 1650.7
6 21 71.60 45.00 0.00 17.30 1668.0
6 22 75.40 45.60 0.00 19.50 1687.5
6 23 72.30 47.00 0.00 18.65 1706.1
6 24 74.50 51.00 0.00 21.75 1727.9
6 25 72.20 48.00 0.00 19.10 1747.0
6 26 73.10 49.60 0.00 20.35 1767.3
6 27 63.20 48.40 0.58 14.80 1782.1
6 28 73.50 47.70 0.00 19.60 1801.7
6 29 78.80 46.50 0.00 21.65 1823.4
6 30 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 1847.0
7 1 71.00 51.70 0.00 20.35 1867.3
7 2 67.80 53.90 0.00 19.85 1887.2
7 3 74.90 54.20 0.00 23.55 1910.7
7 4 84.10 49.40 0.00 25.75 1936.5
7 5 76.90 48.60 0.00 21.75 1958.2
7 6 68.50 58.20 0.00 22.35 1980.6
7 7 77.20 50.00 0.00 22.60 2003.2
7 8 80.60 48.70 0.00 23.65 2026.8
7 9 71.50 55.20 0.45 22.35 2049.2
7 10 73.30 62.10 0.08 26.70 2075.9 Peak in density large larvae
7 11 81.80 55.60 0.00 27.70 2103.6
7 12 82.40 57.50 0.00 28.95 2132.5
7 13 82.90 57.70 0.00 29.30 2161.8
7 14 86.20 53.10 0.00 28.65 2190.5
7 15 75.40 60.50 0.11 26.95 2217.4
7 16 80.30 54.90 0.00 26.60 2244.0
7 17 76.80 53.20 0.00 24.00 2268.0
7 18 77.10 57.50 0.00 26.30 2294.3
7 19 76.00 52.10 0.00 23.05 2317.4
7 20 85.30 51.20 0.00 27.25 2344.6
7 21 85.40 51.10 0.00 27.25 2371.9
7 22 84.80 50.00 0.00 26.40 2398.3
7 23 77.50 50.10 0.00 22.80 2421.1
7 24 81.10 47.50 0.00 23.30 2444.4
7 25 90.60 54.00 0.00 31.30 2475.7
7 26 90.50 52.70 0.00 30.60 2506.3
7 27 81.60 53.90 0.00 26.75 2533.0
7 28 84.80 56.50 0.00 29.65 2562.7
7 29 81.50 49.80 0.00 24.65 2587.3
7 30 78.30 51.10 0.00 23.70 2611.0
7 31 84.50 49.50 0.00 26.00 2637.0
8 1 88.20 50.50 0.00 28.35 2665.4
8 2 81.10 55.40 0.00 27.25 2692.6
8 3 88.50 63.70 0.00 35.10 2727.7
8 4 91.60 58.10 0.00 33.85 2761.6
8 5 88.80 53.80 0.00 30.30 2791.9
8 6 83.20 54.80 0.00 28.00 2819.9
8 7 73.70 53.40 0.00 22.55 2842.4
8 8 71.20 60.40 0.00 24.80 2867.2
8 9 76.00 61.10 0.00 27.55 2894.8
8 10 73.90 53.70 0.00 22.80 2917.6
8 11 77.50 54.70 0.00 25.10 2942.7
8 12 83.30 49.00 0.00 25.15 2967.8
8 13 89.20 52.10 0.00 29.65 2997.5
8 14 88.60 53.10 0.00 29.85 3027.3
8 15 83.50 52.80 0.00 27.15 3054.5
8 16 79.00 53.20 0.00 25.10 3079.6
8 17 77.10 52.70 0.00 23.90 3103.5
8 18 82.20 55.00 0.00 27.60 3131.1
8 19 81.40 51.40 0.00 25.40 3156.5
8 20 83.30 49.30 0.00 25.30 3181.8
8 21 68.60 49.30 0.11 17.95 3199.7
8 22 75.50 54.50 0.00 24.00 3223.7
8 23 85.10 51.90 0.00 27.50 3251.2
8 24 83.10 49.60 0.00 25.35 3276.6
8 25 79.60 54.30 0.00 25.95 3302.5
8 26 85.70 52.90 0.00 28.30 3330.8
8 27 98.60 62.20 0.00 39.40 3370.2
8 28 95.10 51.60 0.00 32.35 3402.6
8 29 85.60 61.70 0.00 32.65 3435.2
8 30 79.40 58.50 0.00 27.95 3463.2
8 31 85.00 50.00 0.00 26.50 3489.7
9 1 82.00 56.30 0.00 28.15 3517.8
9 2 82.80 50.40 0.00 25.60 3543.4
9 3 82.00 50.90 0.00 25.45 3568.9
9 4 81.20 52.60 0.00 25.90 3594.8
9 5 91.80 59.20 0.00 34.50 3629.3
9 6 80.50 59.30 0.00 28.90 3658.2
9 7 68.00 58.20 0.00 22.10 3680.3
9 8 69.70 59.20 0.33 23.45 3703.7
9 9 66.00 56.50 0.41 20.25 3724.0
9 10 70.30 53.80 0.03 21.05 3745.0
9 11 74.50 53.90 0.01 23.20 3768.2
9 12 80.50 50.20 0.00 24.35 3792.6
9 13 76.10 59.10 0.00 26.60 3819.2
9 14 76.80 52.20 0.00 23.50 3842.7
9 15 60.90 54.80 0.60 16.85 3859.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-11-19 | 871 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-17-19 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-20-19 | 1005 | Peak egg laying |
6-4-19 | 1286 | Peak egg hatch |
7-10-19 | 2076 | Peak in density large larvae |