Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 38.60 33.00 0.35 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 34.20 29.40 0.03 0.00 0.0 1 3 35.40 27.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.80 25.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 34.30 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 35.10 15.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 28.30 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 35.20 27.90 1.22 0.00 0.0 1 9 40.20 35.30 0.62 0.00 0.0 1 10 38.80 33.30 1.04 0.00 0.0 1 11 35.50 30.80 0.10 0.00 0.0 1 12 33.40 26.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 13 30.20 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 14 31.30 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 33.10 20.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 38.40 24.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 49.30 27.40 0.49 2.26 2.3 1 18 53.90 44.60 0.47 8.25 10.5 1 19 50.20 39.70 0.11 4.15 14.7 1 20 51.60 37.40 0.12 4.29 18.9 1 21 46.80 37.80 0.44 2.14 21.1 1 22 50.10 36.70 0.16 3.47 24.6 1 23 51.00 31.00 0.01 3.18 27.7 1 24 47.20 28.60 0.00 1.58 29.3 1 25 44.60 36.30 0.01 1.06 30.4 1 26 52.00 36.20 0.01 4.26 34.6 1 27 40.80 32.10 0.00 0.00 34.6 1 28 38.40 33.20 0.01 0.00 34.6 1 29 45.00 34.30 0.00 1.08 35.7 1 30 47.90 37.90 0.00 2.66 38.4 1 31 45.80 36.40 0.04 1.55 39.9 2 1 41.10 34.90 0.00 0.01 39.9 2 2 43.10 33.80 0.01 0.43 40.4 2 3 45.60 30.20 0.91 1.10 41.5 2 4 51.90 47.00 0.62 8.45 49.9 2 5 47.00 37.40 2.01 2.18 52.1 2 6 43.60 36.30 0.27 0.69 52.8 2 7 40.70 35.40 0.19 0.00 52.8 2 8 51.10 39.10 0.83 4.43 57.2 2 9 58.60 46.20 0.66 11.40 68.6 2 10 50.20 37.40 0.15 3.64 72.2 2 11 50.80 34.70 0.01 3.50 75.7 2 12 48.00 32.40 0.00 2.10 77.8 2 13 54.40 33.80 0.00 4.98 82.8 2 14 49.60 31.00 0.04 2.62 85.4 2 15 55.20 44.80 0.78 9.00 94.4 2 16 54.40 45.80 1.39 9.10 103.5 2 17 53.30 41.40 0.00 6.35 109.9 2 18 51.60 43.70 0.16 6.65 116.5 2 19 50.40 39.00 0.33 4.06 120.6 2 20 51.60 42.40 0.74 6.00 126.6 2 21 46.10 39.20 0.88 2.05 128.6 2 22 45.80 34.00 0.10 1.36 130.0 2 23 44.10 32.70 0.01 0.71 130.7 2 24 40.40 32.20 0.10 0.00 130.7 2 25 46.80 33.50 0.01 1.71 132.4 2 26 44.00 32.80 0.26 0.68 133.1 2 27 43.00 32.20 0.09 0.37 133.5 2 28 48.20 34.80 0.13 2.39 135.9 3 1 51.60 38.10 0.01 4.43 140.3 3 2 49.40 34.30 0.01 2.84 143.1 3 3 49.60 42.20 0.33 4.90 148.0 3 4 46.90 36.40 0.09 2.01 150.0 3 5 43.10 33.50 0.41 0.43 150.5 3 6 44.00 32.60 0.73 0.67 151.1 3 7 48.30 40.10 0.37 3.33 154.5 3 8 52.30 44.20 0.16 7.25 161.7 3 9 58.00 50.00 0.47 13.00 174.7 3 10 60.10 46.70 0.01 12.40 187.1 3 11 57.50 42.40 0.19 8.95 196.1 3 12 63.00 42.90 0.00 11.95 208.0 3 13 57.70 42.90 0.19 9.30 217.3 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 14 58.00 42.90 0.61 9.45 226.8 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 15 55.00 46.10 0.45 9.55 236.3 3 16 56.40 35.60 0.00 6.20 242.5 3 17 52.30 36.50 0.09 4.45 247.0 3 18 56.20 40.60 0.30 7.43 254.4 3 19 54.20 34.70 0.00 5.02 259.4 3 20 48.40 44.10 0.20 5.25 264.7 3 21 62.90 44.80 0.12 12.85 277.5 3 22 52.70 42.80 0.09 6.75 284.3 3 23 55.80 33.50 0.24 5.57 289.8 3 24 54.40 45.30 0.00 8.85 298.7 3 25 53.50 43.50 0.00 7.50 306.2 3 26 52.50 43.10 0.25 6.80 313.0 3 27 52.70 43.30 0.09 7.00 320.0 3 28 61.60 45.90 0.05 12.75 332.7 3 29 53.90 45.80 0.45 8.85 341.6 3 30 56.90 38.80 0.01 7.18 348.8 3 31 56.80 32.50 0.01 5.87 354.6 4 1 59.00 42.50 0.04 9.75 364.4 4 2 55.60 40.20 0.03 6.98 371.4 4 3 54.40 33.60 0.00 4.95 376.3 4 4 58.90 38.70 0.00 8.13 384.5 Hx Hn 4 5 59.10 44.80 0.00 10.95 395.4 4 6 63.70 46.30 0.17 14.00 409.4 4 7 54.10 42.60 0.38 7.35 416.8 4 8 52.60 39.00 0.03 5.13 421.9 4 9 55.70 37.40 0.13 6.24 428.1 4 10 56.80 41.20 0.05 8.00 436.1 4 11 50.40 40.70 0.28 4.57 440.7 4 12 58.90 44.70 0.13 10.80 451.5 4 13 52.80 43.10 0.04 6.95 458.4 4 14 53.70 38.10 0.03 5.44 463.9 4 15 58.80 33.30 0.00 6.91 470.8 4 16 61.20 42.90 0.28 11.05 481.8 4 17 58.70 45.10 0.44 10.90 492.7 4 18 63.30 47.10 0.06 14.20 506.9 4 19 58.30 43.40 0.20 9.85 516.8 4 20 59.80 42.50 0.19 10.15 526.9 4 21 66.20 38.10 0.00 11.55 538.5 4 22 61.50 47.30 0.04 13.40 551.9 4 23 56.40 46.40 0.09 10.40 562.3 4 24 57.50 45.80 0.27 10.65 572.9 4 25 53.60 43.50 0.22 7.55 580.5 4 26 55.50 44.70 0.28 9.10 589.6 4 27 56.10 40.30 0.02 7.26 596.9 4 28 58.60 33.80 0.00 6.90 603.8 4 29 65.00 35.90 0.05 10.37 614.1 4 30 59.80 43.90 0.04 10.85 625.0 5 1 56.70 37.80 0.00 6.82 631.8 5 2 66.30 52.30 0.00 18.30 650.1 5 3 79.10 51.00 0.00 24.05 674.1 5 4 82.90 53.60 0.06 27.25 701.4 5 5 57.20 44.10 0.09 9.65 711.0 5 6 59.40 38.10 0.00 8.21 719.3 5 7 63.50 36.40 0.00 9.77 729.0 5 8 70.90 40.00 0.00 14.53 743.5 5 9 75.60 40.80 0.00 17.21 760.8 5 10 73.10 43.30 0.00 17.20 778.0 5 11 57.90 46.80 0.28 11.35 789.3 5 12 53.90 43.20 0.24 7.55 796.9 5 13 54.00 41.20 0.29 6.60 803.5 5 14 60.50 44.50 0.17 11.50 815.0 5 15 60.40 40.60 0.07 9.52 824.5 5 16 57.40 47.60 0.33 11.50 836.0 5 17 61.20 46.40 0.01 12.80 848.8 5 18 70.40 38.20 0.00 13.65 862.4 peak pheromone trap catch 5 19 75.10 47.50 0.00 20.30 882.7 5 20 69.00 47.90 0.00 17.45 900.2 5 21 79.00 53.50 0.00 25.25 925.4 5 22 86.70 60.20 0.00 32.45 957.9 peak female adult emergence 5 23 84.60 55.20 0.00 28.90 986.8 5 24 65.20 44.80 0.00 14.00 1000.8 peak egg laying 5 25 72.00 44.50 0.00 17.25 1018.0 5 26 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1041.3 5 27 84.60 50.40 0.00 26.50 1067.8 5 28 77.40 48.70 0.00 22.05 1089.9 5 29 70.70 50.40 0.00 19.55 1109.4 5 30 61.90 51.90 0.00 15.90 1125.3 5 31 73.50 49.30 0.00 20.40 1145.7 6 1 68.30 55.70 0.00 21.00 1166.7 6 2 75.30 51.90 0.00 22.60 1189.3 6 3 65.20 54.00 0.00 18.60 1207.9 6 4 66.60 50.20 0.00 17.40 1225.3 6 5 74.80 46.50 0.00 19.65 1245.0 6 6 80.50 46.60 0.00 22.55 1267.5 6 7 74.50 48.70 0.02 20.60 1288.1 peak egg hatch 6 8 62.20 52.40 0.50 16.30 1304.4 6 9 59.30 49.80 0.17 13.55 1318.0 6 10 59.50 48.80 0.48 13.15 1331.1 6 11 67.10 48.30 0.00 16.70 1347.8 6 12 62.60 50.40 0.00 15.50 1363.3 6 13 63.90 51.10 0.03 16.50 1379.8 6 14 67.40 49.40 0.00 17.40 1397.2 6 15 63.20 53.30 0.23 17.25 1414.5 6 16 63.70 56.60 0.05 19.15 1433.6 6 17 75.70 51.90 0.00 22.80 1456.4 6 18 80.20 56.50 0.00 27.35 1483.8 6 19 85.60 60.30 0.00 31.95 1515.7 6 20 78.70 53.80 0.00 25.25 1541.0 6 21 76.00 49.10 0.00 21.55 1562.5 6 22 83.40 51.30 0.00 26.35 1588.9 6 23 90.30 59.60 0.00 33.95 1622.8 6 24 97.10 67.60 0.00 41.35 1664.2 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for CRVO data
  6 25  82.80 51.40  0.00  26.10   1690.3  0.00_17.10%_precip.    
  6 26  67.80 51.10  0.00  18.45   1708.7  0.00_9.45%_precip.    
  6 27  75.60 49.30  0.00  21.45   1730.2  0.00_12.46%_precip.    
  6 28  71.10 43.40  0.00  16.25   1746.4  0.00_8.04%_precip.    
  6 29  76.80 47.00  0.00  20.90   1767.3  0.00_12.05%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg CRVO 2006-2015
  6 30  78.20 52.80  0.00  24.50   1791.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  81.00 51.60  0.03  25.30   1817.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  83.50 52.10  0.00  26.80   1843.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  84.00 52.60  0.01  27.30   1871.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  81.70 51.40  0.00  25.55   1896.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.80 51.00  0.01  25.40   1922.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  79.80 51.60  0.00  24.70   1946.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  81.40 51.20  0.00  25.30   1972.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  83.40 51.00  0.00  26.20   1998.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  86.00 53.00  0.00  28.50   2026.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  86.40 53.70  0.00  29.05   2055.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  84.50 53.10  0.00  27.80   2083.7  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 12  80.40 53.80  0.02  26.10   2109.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.20 53.60  0.10  25.40   2135.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  80.10 52.60  0.02  25.35   2160.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  84.90 53.50  0.00  28.20   2188.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  85.00 53.60  0.04  28.30   2217.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  82.70 54.00  0.03  27.35   2244.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  80.30 52.80  0.06  25.55   2270.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  80.30 52.80  0.02  25.55   2295.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  82.40 53.20  0.00  26.80   2322.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.50 52.80  0.01  26.15   2348.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  83.00 53.70  0.00  27.35   2375.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  80.50 54.10  0.01  26.30   2402.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  82.40 53.30  0.03  26.85   2429.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.10 53.40  0.00  28.75   2457.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.90 52.20  0.00  27.55   2485.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  84.60 52.10  0.00  27.35   2512.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.50 53.10  0.00  27.80   2540.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.20 52.60  0.00  27.90   2568.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.00 53.40  0.00  27.70   2596.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  83.60 52.20  0.00  26.90   2622.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.10 53.00  0.01  28.05   2651.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  83.90 53.80  0.00  27.85   2678.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  83.00 52.40  0.00  26.70   2705.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.30 51.70  0.00  27.00   2732.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.00 51.50  0.00  27.75   2760.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  85.30 52.50  0.00  27.90   2788.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  82.90 53.00  0.00  26.95   2815.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.50 51.70  0.00  25.10   2840.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.90 52.90  0.00  24.90   2865.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  80.40 51.70  0.00  25.05   2890.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.30 51.20  0.00  25.25   2915.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.50 52.80  0.02  27.15   2942.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.30 51.60  0.00  25.95   2968.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.10 51.80  0.00  26.95   2995.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.70 53.50  0.01  28.60   3024.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.40 53.90  0.00  27.65   3051.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.60 53.30  0.01  28.45   3080.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.90 53.50  0.00  28.70   3108.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.50 54.10  0.06  28.30   3137.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  84.30 53.60  0.03  27.95   3165.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.80 51.80  0.05  25.30   3190.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.90 50.60  0.01  24.25   3214.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.20 50.70  0.00  24.45   3239.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.30 50.80  0.00  25.05   3264.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  83.00 51.00  0.04  26.00   3290.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.40 50.80  0.01  25.60   3315.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.00 50.90  0.00  25.95   3341.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.60 51.70  0.00  27.15   3368.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.80 52.10  0.03  25.95   3394.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.50 52.30  0.05  23.90   3418.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.50 50.70  0.04  22.10   3440.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.10 48.50  0.01  21.30   3462.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.80 49.50  0.00  23.65   3485.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.30 49.30  0.01  24.30   3510.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.30 49.20  0.04  24.25   3534.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.50 49.70  0.04  23.60   3557.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.50 50.20  0.34  23.85   3581.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.30 48.90  0.01  23.60   3605.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.30 50.00  0.04  24.15   3629.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.20 49.80  0.01  24.00   3653.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.30 51.10  0.00  24.70   3678.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.10 49.70  0.00  25.40   3703.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  85.70 49.60  0.00  26.65   3730.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  83.70 48.60  0.00  25.15   3755.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.20 50.20  0.00  22.70   3778.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.80 49.40  0.01  22.10   3800.2  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 CRVO CORVALLIS OR
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 20 days behind 2016 ok
 17 days behind 2015 ok
 3 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-18-17 862peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-17 958peak female adult emergence
 5-24-17 1001peak egg laying
 6-7-17 1288peak egg hatch
 7-11-17 2084peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)