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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 40.00 29.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 36.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 31.20 24.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 34.00 30.50 0.30 0.00 0.0
1 5 39.10 33.20 0.10 0.00 0.0
1 6 41.30 32.90 0.07 0.02 0.0
1 7 39.40 35.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 38.80 37.30 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 9 47.90 37.40 0.17 2.58 2.6
1 10 44.20 31.70 0.00 0.71 3.3
1 11 43.40 31.90 0.15 0.48 3.8
1 12 50.60 38.00 0.92 3.94 7.7
1 13 53.40 39.10 0.22 5.55 13.3
1 14 44.40 38.90 0.27 1.22 14.5
1 15 49.40 38.30 0.00 3.43 17.9
1 16 52.60 40.80 0.33 5.71 23.6
1 17 48.80 39.80 1.03 3.49 27.1
1 18 51.40 37.30 0.38 4.18 31.3
1 19 47.90 43.20 0.92 4.55 35.9
1 20 46.40 38.20 0.08 2.02 37.9
1 21 54.90 45.20 0.18 9.05 46.9
1 22 57.10 48.70 0.34 11.90 58.8
1 23 51.90 45.10 0.19 7.50 66.3
1 24 47.00 40.50 0.07 2.81 69.1
1 25 56.40 39.70 0.00 7.20 76.3
1 26 55.80 48.30 0.06 11.05 87.4
1 27 62.00 47.10 0.00 13.55 100.9
1 28 60.20 43.50 0.43 10.85 111.8
1 29 51.60 41.70 0.56 5.65 117.4
1 30 45.10 35.60 0.83 1.20 118.6
1 31 42.00 31.30 0.17 0.13 118.8
2 1 46.40 32.90 0.01 1.52 120.3
2 2 48.60 36.60 0.06 2.78 123.1
2 3 47.00 40.60 0.19 2.84 125.9
2 4 53.90 41.00 0.10 6.45 132.4
2 5 57.70 36.00 0.13 6.89 139.3
2 6 51.50 36.60 0.01 4.10 143.3
2 7 54.40 40.90 0.00 6.65 150.0
2 8 61.60 34.60 0.01 8.46 158.5
2 9 58.40 34.10 0.01 6.86 165.3
2 10 60.40 37.80 0.00 8.62 173.9
2 11 55.90 49.20 0.12 11.55 185.5
2 12 55.80 42.10 0.21 7.95 193.4
2 13 49.70 37.30 0.21 3.39 196.8
2 14 56.70 47.70 0.18 11.20 208.0
2 15 62.00 45.40 0.01 12.70 220.7
2 16 56.80 45.50 0.00 10.15 230.9
2 17 60.00 46.70 0.13 12.35 243.2
2 18 49.50 43.60 0.48 5.55 248.8
2 19 48.00 40.60 0.47 3.34 252.1
2 20 51.10 33.60 0.00 3.49 255.6
2 21 52.90 32.80 0.14 4.18 259.8
2 22 53.60 36.90 0.01 5.14 264.9
2 23 55.60 38.80 0.00 6.54 271.5
2 24 61.80 37.30 0.00 9.17 280.6
2 25 61.40 35.00 0.00 8.44 289.1
2 26 52.90 38.20 0.27 5.08 294.2
2 27 58.40 46.70 0.12 11.55 305.7
2 28 55.30 40.90 0.11 7.10 312.8
2 29 53.30 38.00 0.19 5.23 318.0
3 1 56.80 44.60 0.07 9.70 327.7
3 2 53.60 39.50 0.38 5.76 333.5
3 3 63.30 44.50 0.02 12.90 346.4
3 4 58.10 36.20 0.00 7.13 353.5
3 5 61.30 48.70 0.49 14.00 367.5
3 6 52.20 44.90 0.53 7.55 375.1
3 7 53.20 39.20 0.19 5.48 380.5
3 8 47.80 33.50 0.13 2.10 382.6
3 9 56.80 44.40 0.50 9.60 392.2
3 10 56.90 39.90 0.20 7.52 399.8
3 11 49.00 40.60 0.19 3.84 403.6
3 12 48.30 40.50 0.53 3.45 407.1
3 13 53.60 42.40 0.84 7.00 414.1
3 14 49.80 40.20 0.85 4.10 418.2
3 15 49.00 41.20 0.37 4.10 422.3
3 16 51.20 40.60 0.20 4.93 427.2
3 17 60.80 36.40 0.00 8.46 435.7
3 18 62.10 44.00 0.00 12.05 447.7
3 19 63.30 46.60 0.00 13.95 461.7
3 20 60.80 47.60 0.49 13.20 474.9
3 21 50.50 44.50 0.43 6.50 481.4
3 22 55.00 42.50 0.33 7.75 489.1
3 23 52.90 41.20 0.02 6.05 495.2
3 24 55.90 40.70 0.07 7.32 502.5
3 25 55.60 37.20 0.05 6.15 508.6
3 26 56.10 37.40 0.26 6.43 515.1
3 27 52.00 42.30 0.04 6.15 521.2
3 28 55.60 36.50 0.02 6.00 527.2
3 29 62.80 33.00 0.00 8.71 535.9
3 30 69.80 37.80 0.00 13.23 549.2
3 31 73.60 38.80 0.00 15.44 564.6
4 1 73.20 39.20 0.00 15.38 580.0
4 2 69.40 40.00 0.00 13.78 593.7
4 3 69.90 39.10 0.28 13.70 607.4
4 4 58.40 43.10 0.14 9.75 617.2
4 5 61.00 37.90 0.00 8.94 626.1
4 6 69.70 37.80 0.00 13.18 639.3
4 7 81.80 43.10 0.00 21.45 660.8
4 8 75.40 45.70 0.00 19.55 680.3
4 9 66.10 44.90 0.00 14.50 694.8
4 10 61.20 45.20 0.00 12.20 707.0
4 11 62.40 45.20 0.00 12.80 719.8
4 12 59.20 47.10 0.05 12.15 732.0
4 13 60.60 45.80 0.11 12.20 744.2
4 14 56.10 42.80 0.67 8.45 752.6
4 15 61.20 41.20 0.00 10.20 762.8
4 16 66.70 39.00 0.00 12.08 774.9
4 17 79.70 42.50 0.00 20.10 795.0
4 18 83.80 47.70 0.00 24.75 819.7
4 19 80.80 46.80 0.00 22.80 842.5
4 20 75.80 47.30 0.00 20.55 863.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 21 73.20 42.60 0.59 16.90 880.0
4 22 63.30 49.50 0.51 15.40 895.4
4 23 59.10 43.00 0.15 10.05 905.4
4 24 53.90 42.40 0.14 7.15 912.6
4 25 57.10 38.50 0.01 7.19 919.8
4 26 57.60 33.20 0.00 6.34 926.1
4 27 60.90 46.00 0.19 12.45 938.6
4 28 60.20 43.80 0.00 11.00 949.6
4 29 60.10 45.90 0.14 12.00 961.6 Peak female adult emergence
4 30 65.00 36.50 0.00 10.52 972.1
5 1 78.30 48.90 0.00 22.60 994.7
5 2 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 1018.9 Peak egg laying
5 3 69.40 48.80 0.00 18.10 1037.0
5 4 60.20 52.50 0.04 15.35 1052.3
5 5 68.10 51.40 0.01 18.75 1071.1
5 6 78.90 45.80 0.00 21.35 1092.4
5 7 83.20 51.50 0.00 26.35 1118.8
5 8 64.40 46.80 0.01 14.60 1133.4
5 9 65.50 40.00 0.00 11.83 1145.2
5 10 75.40 43.60 0.00 18.50 1163.7
5 11 83.40 48.80 0.00 25.10 1188.8
5 12 81.30 42.10 0.00 20.70 1209.5
5 13 78.20 45.00 0.01 20.60 1230.1
5 14 56.80 52.10 0.35 13.45 1243.6
5 15 63.30 52.10 0.08 16.70 1260.3
5 16 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1276.5 Peak egg hatch
5 17 72.90 48.40 0.00 19.65 1296.1
5 18 75.20 46.90 0.00 20.05 1316.2
5 19 60.10 48.30 0.09 13.20 1329.4
5 20 62.80 46.00 0.00 13.40 1342.8
5 21 62.30 48.30 0.02 14.30 1357.1
5 22 62.30 45.60 0.18 12.95 1370.0
5 23 63.90 46.00 0.03 13.95 1384.0
5 24 68.60 42.50 0.00 14.55 1398.5
5 25 64.40 50.50 0.00 16.45 1415.0
5 26 61.00 49.00 0.00 14.00 1429.0
5 27 63.40 45.60 0.00 13.50 1442.5
5 28 72.90 36.90 0.00 14.49 1457.0
5 29 69.80 43.40 0.00 15.60 1472.6
5 30 75.20 45.80 0.00 19.50 1492.1
5 31 83.80 49.50 0.00 25.65 1517.7
6 1 80.60 49.90 0.00 24.25 1542.0
6 2 69.00 56.80 0.09 21.90 1563.9
6 3 84.10 52.10 0.01 27.10 1591.0
6 4 94.50 61.90 0.00 37.20 1628.2
6 5 90.90 61.60 0.00 35.25 1663.4
6 6 90.10 55.20 0.00 31.65 1695.1
6 7 88.20 52.00 0.00 29.10 1724.2
6 8 73.00 53.10 0.00 22.05 1746.2
6 9 62.40 50.20 0.03 15.30 1761.5
6 10 65.80 43.00 0.01 13.40 1774.9
6 11 68.10 47.50 0.00 16.80 1791.7
6 12 76.10 47.50 0.00 20.80 1812.5
6 13 64.20 44.50 0.00 13.35 1825.9
6 14 63.40 45.00 0.06 13.20 1839.1
6 15 62.10 44.10 0.02 12.10 1851.2
6 16 65.30 41.80 0.00 12.55 1863.7
6 17 69.90 49.20 0.00 18.55 1882.3
6 18 67.90 48.30 0.16 17.10 1899.4
6 19 74.30 44.00 0.00 18.15 1917.5
6 20 75.70 47.30 0.00 20.50 1938.0
6 21 74.70 45.40 0.00 19.05 1957.1
6 22 78.40 45.40 0.00 20.90 1978.0
6 23 65.30 53.60 0.08 18.45 1996.4
6 24 69.00 51.60 0.01 19.30 2015.7
6 25 78.80 51.30 0.00 24.05 2039.8
6 26 87.60 53.90 0.00 29.75 2069.5
6 27 85.70 53.50 0.00 28.60 2098.1 Peak in density large larvae
6 28 83.30 49.70 0.00 25.50 2123.6
6 29 81.20 49.50 0.00 24.35 2148.0
6 30 80.20 49.80 0.00 24.00 2172.0
7 1 81.60 50.10 0.00 24.85 2196.8
7 2 85.60 55.80 0.00 29.70 2226.5
7 3 77.90 50.50 0.00 23.20 2249.7
7 4 74.10 48.00 0.00 20.05 2269.8
7 5 76.80 49.10 0.00 21.95 2291.7
7 6 80.20 51.40 0.00 24.80 2316.5
7 7 71.70 51.00 0.06 20.35 2336.9
7 8 73.80 58.00 0.06 24.90 2361.8
7 9 72.40 54.90 0.02 22.65 2384.4
7 10 67.60 54.90 0.25 20.25 2404.7
7 11 74.10 54.90 0.00 23.50 2428.2
7 12 72.10 55.50 0.02 22.80 2451.0
7 13 79.80 53.00 0.00 25.40 2476.4
7 14 83.30 50.70 0.00 26.00 2502.4
7 15 76.20 48.40 0.00 21.30 2523.7
7 16 72.80 50.80 0.00 20.80 2544.5
7 17 71.20 52.10 0.00 20.65 2565.1
7 18 72.50 60.00 0.00 25.25 2590.4
7 19 75.50 54.80 0.00 24.15 2614.5
7 20 83.40 47.60 0.00 24.50 2639.0
7 21 78.50 52.80 0.00 24.65 2663.7
7 22 75.10 58.60 0.00 25.85 2689.5
7 23 78.10 52.90 0.00 24.50 2714.0
7 24 86.30 53.60 0.00 28.95 2743.0
7 25 85.90 53.30 0.00 28.60 2771.6
7 26 85.90 51.70 0.00 27.80 2799.4
7 27 88.90 53.40 0.00 30.15 2829.5
7 28 94.70 55.40 0.00 34.05 2863.6
7 29 94.90 56.40 0.00 34.65 2898.2
7 30 81.40 50.80 0.00 25.10 2923.3
7 31 78.40 46.80 0.00 21.60 2944.9
8 1 82.90 50.70 0.00 25.80 2970.7
8 2 76.70 46.90 0.00 20.80 2991.5
8 3 81.50 52.60 0.00 26.05 3017.6
8 4 92.10 58.40 0.00 34.25 3051.8
8 5 82.90 49.90 0.00 25.40 3077.2
8 6 79.40 45.60 0.00 21.50 3098.7
8 7 73.20 46.20 0.00 18.70 3117.4
8 8 68.10 49.70 0.08 17.90 3135.3
8 9 72.20 51.30 0.01 20.75 3156.1
8 10 79.90 54.20 0.00 26.05 3182.1
8 11 88.10 54.50 0.00 30.30 3212.4
8 12 94.90 53.80 0.00 33.35 3245.8
8 13 94.60 57.00 0.00 34.80 3280.6
8 14 91.30 55.10 0.00 32.20 3312.8
8 15 88.20 54.10 0.00 30.15 3342.9
8 16 87.30 52.70 0.00 29.00 3371.9
8 17 84.70 49.90 0.00 26.30 3398.2
8 18 98.70 52.40 0.00 34.55 3432.8
8 19 101.10 65.00 0.00 42.05 3474.8
8 20 97.20 59.40 0.00 37.30 3512.1
8 21 83.40 50.10 0.00 25.75 3537.9 Vx
8 22 76.00 53.40 0.00 23.70 3561.6
8 23 82.10 49.10 0.00 24.60 3586.2
8 24 91.80 52.40 0.00 31.10 3617.3
8 25 94.50 66.20 0.00 39.35 3656.6
8 26 96.50 63.70 0.00 39.10 3695.7
8 27 82.00 50.80 0.00 25.40 3721.1
8 28 85.30 49.80 0.00 26.55 3747.7
8 29 82.10 47.30 0.00 23.70 3771.4
8 30 71.60 50.20 0.00 19.90 3791.3
8 31 69.50 50.00 0.00 18.75 3810.0
9 1 69.90 53.10 0.00 20.50 3830.5
9 2 73.10 53.10 0.02 22.10 3852.6
9 3 71.50 41.30 0.00 15.40 3868.0
9 4 70.90 44.40 0.00 16.65 3884.7
9 5 73.70 46.90 0.00 19.30 3904.0
9 6 69.80 51.70 0.18 19.75 3923.7
9 7 76.50 57.00 0.00 25.75 3949.5
9 8 78.00 45.70 0.00 20.85 3970.3
9 9 82.80 48.70 0.00 24.75 3995.1
9 10 88.50 53.60 0.00 30.05 4025.1
9 11 74.60 52.20 0.00 22.40 4047.5
9 12 78.70 48.60 0.00 22.65 4070.2
9 13 80.40 56.60 0.00 27.50 4097.7
9 14 79.50 42.20 0.00 19.85 4117.5
9 15 82.00 39.30 0.00 19.79 4137.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-20-16 | 863 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-29-16 | 962 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-2-16 | 1019 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-16-16 | 1276 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-27-16 | 2098 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2420494)
