|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 AU155 APRSWXNET N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Lat46.1867 Long:-119.8275 Elev:679
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 56.00 41.00 0.12 7.50 7.5 * START *
1 2 47.00 34.00 0.00 1.83 9.3
1 3 57.00 43.00 0.00 9.00 18.3
1 4 55.00 40.00 0.05 6.61 24.9
1 5 49.00 38.00 0.01 3.18 28.1
1 6 55.00 38.00 0.09 6.04 34.2
1 7 55.00 48.00 0.00 10.50 44.7
1 8 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 47.0
1 9 42.00 21.00 0.05 0.09 47.1
1 10 43.00 21.00 0.01 0.26 47.3
1 11 51.00 40.00 0.01 4.63 52.0
1 12 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.44 53.4
1 13 38.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 53.4
1 14 23.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 53.4
1 15 29.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 53.4
1 16 30.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 53.4
1 17 29.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 53.4
1 18 35.00 24.00 0.01 0.00 53.4
1 19 40.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 53.4
1 20 42.00 27.00 0.03 0.11 53.5
1 21 48.00 23.00 0.03 1.62 55.1
1 22 47.00 40.00 0.22 2.66 57.8
1 23 41.00 36.00 0.35 0.00 57.8
1 24 56.00 33.00 0.01 5.58 63.4
1 25 57.00 38.00 0.13 7.01 70.4
1 26 53.00 37.00 0.13 4.87 75.3
1 27 52.00 30.00 0.18 3.50 78.8
1 28 49.00 32.00 0.03 2.46 81.2
1 29 48.00 30.00 0.20 1.94 83.2
1 30 43.00 26.00 0.02 0.29 83.5
1 31 63.00 43.00 0.18 12.00 95.5
2 1 60.00 39.00 0.35 8.76 104.2
2 2 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.74 105.0
2 3 43.00 17.00 0.00 0.24 105.2
2 4 35.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 105.2
2 5 47.00 30.00 0.00 1.57 106.8
2 6 52.00 33.00 0.00 3.81 110.6 Px Pn
2 7 56.20 32.80 0.08 5.64 116.2 Px Pn
2 8 54.00 40.00 0.00 6.11 122.3
2 9 52.00 24.00 0.00 3.06 125.4
2 10 52.00 22.00 0.00 2.95 128.3
2 11 60.00 30.00 0.00 6.95 135.3
2 12 53.00 22.00 0.00 3.31 138.6
2 13 47.00 22.00 0.00 1.28 139.9
2 14 54.00 29.00 0.00 4.23 144.1
2 15 46.00 32.00 0.04 1.32 145.4
2 16 53.00 28.00 0.00 3.73 149.2
2 17 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 152.3
2 18 47.00 17.00 0.00 1.16 153.5
2 19 48.00 15.00 0.00 1.40 154.9
2 20 48.00 15.00 0.00 1.40 156.3
2 21 52.00 17.00 0.00 2.71 159.0
2 22 59.00 22.00 0.38 5.64 164.7
2 23 57.00 36.00 0.76 6.56 171.2
2 24 52.00 31.00 0.02 3.60 174.8
2 25 53.00 21.00 0.00 3.25 178.1
2 26 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 186.1
2 27 61.00 26.00 0.00 6.88 193.0
2 28 65.00 26.00 0.00 8.62 201.6
2 29 54.00 31.00 0.00 4.44 206.1
3 1 51.00 18.00 0.00 2.42 208.5
3 2 62.00 28.00 0.00 7.56 216.0
3 3 65.00 39.00 0.00 11.24 227.3
3 4 59.00 38.00 0.00 7.99 235.3
3 5 62.00 25.00 0.00 7.19 242.5
3 6 59.00 37.00 0.31 7.74 250.2
3 7 53.00 32.00 0.11 4.13 254.3
3 8 53.00 27.00 0.00 3.65 258.0
3 9 54.00 21.00 0.00 3.62 261.6
3 10 64.00 25.00 0.00 8.06 269.7
3 11 63.00 33.00 0.00 8.80 278.5
3 12 54.00 22.00 0.00 3.68 282.1
3 13 45.00 31.00 0.10 0.94 283.1
3 14 33.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 283.1
3 15 40.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 283.1
3 16 54.00 21.00 0.00 3.62 286.7
3 17 56.00 18.00 0.00 4.18 290.9
3 18 62.00 23.00 0.00 6.98 297.9
3 19 63.00 24.00 0.00 7.51 305.4
3 20 65.00 27.00 0.00 8.76 314.1
3 21 66.00 28.00 0.00 9.35 323.5
3 22 63.00 28.00 0.00 8.01 331.5
3 23 57.00 39.00 0.00 7.29 338.8
3 24 56.00 38.00 0.11 6.53 345.3
3 25 57.00 30.00 0.00 5.62 350.9
3 26 59.00 23.00 0.00 5.73 356.6
3 27 59.00 37.00 0.00 7.74 364.4
3 28 61.00 38.00 0.09 8.97 373.3
3 29 62.00 45.00 0.03 12.50 385.8
3 30 56.00 42.00 0.01 8.00 393.8
3 31 56.00 36.00 0.02 6.09 399.9
4 1 53.00 30.00 0.06 3.91 403.9
4 2 54.00 22.00 0.00 3.68 407.5
4 3 55.00 22.00 0.00 4.06 411.6
4 4 54.00 26.00 0.00 3.97 415.6
4 5 60.00 35.00 0.00 7.78 423.3
4 6 67.00 31.00 0.00 10.31 433.6
4 7 73.00 31.00 0.00 13.12 446.8
4 8 71.00 30.00 0.00 11.99 458.8
4 9 76.00 31.00 0.00 14.55 473.3
4 10 80.00 35.00 0.00 17.44 490.8
4 11 65.00 45.00 0.00 14.00 504.8
4 12 59.00 34.00 0.00 7.12 511.9
4 13 65.00 28.00 0.00 8.90 520.8
4 14 75.00 36.00 0.00 15.27 536.0
4 15 66.00 43.00 0.00 13.50 549.5
4 16 65.00 28.00 0.00 8.90 558.4
4 17 77.00 28.00 0.00 14.42 572.9
4 18 72.00 43.00 0.00 16.50 589.4
4 19 72.00 47.00 0.00 18.50 607.9
4 20 77.00 38.00 0.00 16.86 624.7
4 21 76.00 39.00 0.05 16.70 641.4
4 22 69.00 39.00 0.01 13.22 654.6
4 23 71.00 49.00 0.00 19.00 673.6
4 24 72.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 689.1
4 25 73.00 43.00 0.00 17.00 706.1
4 26 75.00 36.00 0.00 15.27 721.4
4 27 74.00 49.00 0.00 20.50 741.9
4 28 77.00 39.00 0.00 17.20 759.1
4 29 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 781.6
4 30 70.00 46.00 0.00 17.00 798.6
5 1 74.00 31.00 0.01 13.60 812.2
5 2 78.00 46.00 0.16 21.00 833.2
5 3 65.00 39.00 0.00 11.24 844.4
5 4 73.00 30.00 0.00 12.93 857.4 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 5 79.00 39.00 0.36 18.19 875.6
5 6 64.00 46.00 0.02 14.00 889.6
5 7 69.00 33.00 0.00 11.64 901.2
5 8 75.00 40.00 0.00 16.57 917.8
5 9 82.00 42.00 0.00 21.00 938.8
5 10 81.00 49.00 0.00 24.00 962.8 Peak female adult emergence
5 11 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 988.8
5 12 72.00 52.00 0.22 21.00 1009.8 Peak egg laying
5 13 74.00 50.00 0.10 21.00 1030.8
5 14 69.00 50.00 0.08 18.50 1049.3
5 15 73.00 49.00 0.08 20.00 1069.3
5 16 75.00 45.00 0.06 19.00 1088.3
5 17 64.00 52.00 0.09 17.00 1105.3
5 18 72.00 46.00 0.24 18.00 1123.3
5 19 67.00 50.00 0.24 17.50 1140.8
5 20 72.00 55.00 0.01 22.50 1163.3
5 21 65.00 47.00 0.00 15.00 1178.3
5 22 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 1191.8
5 23 72.00 39.00 0.00 14.71 1206.5
5 24 79.00 43.00 0.00 20.00 1226.5
5 25 72.00 49.00 0.07 19.50 1246.0
5 26 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 1271.0 Peak egg hatch
5 27 86.00 42.00 0.00 23.00 1294.0
5 28 90.00 48.00 0.00 28.00 1322.0
5 29 95.00 51.00 0.00 32.00 1354.0
5 30 90.00 58.00 0.14 33.00 1387.0
5 31 78.00 53.00 0.00 24.50 1411.5
6 1 81.00 51.00 0.00 25.00 1436.5
6 2 85.00 44.00 0.00 23.50 1460.0
6 3 83.00 47.00 0.00 24.00 1484.0
6 4 80.00 54.00 0.00 26.00 1510.0
6 5 75.00 58.00 0.00 25.50 1535.5
6 6 74.00 47.00 0.10 19.50 1555.0
6 7 71.00 42.00 0.00 15.50 1570.5
6 8 71.00 44.00 0.10 16.50 1587.0
6 9 74.00 51.00 0.10 21.50 1608.5
6 10 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 1634.5
6 11 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 1663.5
6 12 86.00 54.00 0.13 29.00 1692.5
6 13 72.00 51.00 0.13 20.50 1713.0
6 14 75.00 42.00 0.11 17.50 1730.5
6 15 70.00 51.00 0.11 19.50 1750.0
6 16 74.00 46.00 0.00 19.00 1769.0
6 17 84.90 43.00 0.00 22.95 1791.9 Px
6 18 88.00 48.00 0.00 27.00 1818.9
6 19 92.00 51.00 0.00 30.50 1849.4
6 20 85.00 63.00 0.05 33.00 1882.4
6 21 86.00 52.00 0.00 28.00 1910.4
6 22 92.00 52.00 0.00 31.00 1941.4
6 23 100.00 56.00 0.00 37.00 1978.4
6 24 95.00 66.00 0.00 39.50 2017.9
6 25 94.00 56.00 0.00 34.00 2051.9
6 26 100.00 58.00 0.00 38.00 2089.9 Peak in density large larvae
6 27 86.00 56.00 0.02 30.00 2119.9
6 28 73.00 51.00 0.02 21.00 2140.9
6 29 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 2173.4
6 30 80.00 55.00 0.00 26.50 2199.9
7 1 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 2221.4
7 2 84.00 51.00 0.00 26.50 2247.9
7 3 87.00 48.00 0.00 26.50 2274.4
7 4 86.00 47.00 0.00 25.50 2299.9
7 5 87.00 49.00 0.00 27.00 2326.9
7 6 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 2356.9
7 7 81.00 54.00 0.00 26.50 2383.4
7 8 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 2408.4
7 9 84.00 49.00 0.00 25.50 2433.9
7 10 89.00 50.00 0.00 28.50 2462.4
7 11 93.00 51.00 0.00 31.00 2493.4
7 12 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 2521.9
7 13 84.00 51.00 0.00 26.50 2548.4
7 14 92.00 48.00 0.00 29.00 2577.4
7 15 97.00 51.00 0.00 33.00 2610.4
7 16 98.00 60.00 0.00 38.00 2648.4
7 17 90.00 58.00 0.00 33.00 2681.4
7 18 93.00 52.00 0.00 31.50 2712.9
7 19 98.00 56.00 0.00 36.00 2748.9
7 20 99.00 59.00 0.00 38.00 2786.9
7 21 104.00 59.00 0.00 40.50 2827.4
7 22 97.00 58.00 0.00 36.50 2863.9
7 23 93.00 68.00 0.00 39.50 2903.4
7 24 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 2932.9
7 25 88.00 47.30 0.00 26.65 2959.6 Pn
7 26 96.00 49.00 0.00 31.50 2991.1
7 27 101.00 53.00 0.00 36.00 3027.1
7 28 104.00 67.00 0.00 44.50 3071.6
7 29 101.00 65.00 0.00 42.00 3113.6
7 30 106.00 63.00 0.00 43.50 3157.1
7 31 106.00 71.00 0.00 47.50 3204.6
8 1 94.00 63.00 0.00 37.50 3242.1
8 2 95.00 57.40 0.00 35.20 3277.3 Pn
8 3 92.00 56.00 0.00 33.00 3310.3
8 4 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 3344.3
8 5 99.00 57.00 0.00 37.00 3381.3
8 6 84.00 57.00 0.00 29.50 3410.8
8 7 83.00 46.00 0.00 23.50 3434.3
8 8 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 3463.3
8 9 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 3491.3
8 10 95.00 50.00 0.00 31.50 3522.8
8 11 93.00 55.00 0.00 33.00 3555.8
8 12 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 3584.8
8 13 85.00 44.00 0.00 23.50 3608.3
8 14 91.00 46.00 0.00 27.50 3635.8
8 15 96.00 49.00 0.00 31.50 3667.3
8 16 102.00 56.00 0.00 38.00 3705.3
8 17 103.00 63.00 0.00 42.00 3747.3
8 18 102.00 64.00 0.00 42.00 3789.3
8 19 97.00 56.00 0.00 35.50 3824.8
8 20 91.00 63.00 0.00 36.00 3860.8
8 21 91.00 64.00 0.00 36.50 3897.3
8 22 85.00 53.00 0.00 28.00 3925.3
8 23 90.00 46.00 0.00 27.00 3952.3
8 24 92.00 51.00 0.00 30.50 3982.8
8 25 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 4011.8
8 26 89.00 47.00 0.00 27.00 4038.8
8 27 89.00 48.00 0.00 27.50 4066.3
8 28 92.00 45.00 0.00 27.50 4093.8
8 29 91.00 48.00 0.00 28.50 4122.3
8 30 80.00 48.00 0.00 23.00 4145.3
8 31 83.00 58.00 0.00 29.50 4174.8
9 1 93.00 52.00 0.00 31.50 4206.3
9 2 96.00 55.00 0.00 34.50 4240.8
9 3 94.00 53.00 0.00 32.50 4273.3
9 4 95.00 52.00 0.00 32.50 4305.8
9 5 96.00 57.00 0.00 35.50 4341.3
9 6 97.00 50.00 0.00 32.50 4373.8
9 7 81.00 51.00 0.00 25.00 4398.8
9 8 74.00 40.00 0.00 16.07 4414.8
9 9 82.00 40.00 0.00 20.06 4434.9
9 10 88.00 42.00 0.00 24.00 4458.9
9 11 88.00 45.00 0.00 25.50 4484.4
9 12 77.00 47.00 0.00 21.00 4505.4
9 13 69.00 46.00 0.00 16.50 4521.9
9 14 68.00 52.00 0.00 19.00 4540.9
9 15 74.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 4560.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AU155 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 AU155 N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-4-20 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-10-20 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-12-20 | 1010 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-26-20 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-26-20 | 2090 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?525647)
