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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 AU155 APRSWXNET N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Lat46.1867 Long:-119.8275 Elev:679
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 39.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 36.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 3.5
1 4 54.00 38.00 0.00 5.56 9.1
1 5 40.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 9.1
1 6 51.00 32.00 0.00 3.28 12.3
1 7 49.00 27.00 0.00 2.13 14.5
1 8 32.00 26.00 0.18 0.00 14.5
1 9 40.00 32.00 0.03 0.00 14.5
1 10 36.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 14.5
1 11 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 14.5
1 12 35.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 14.5
1 13 32.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 14.5
1 14 33.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 14.5
1 15 32.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 14.5
1 16 38.00 25.00 0.57 0.00 14.5
1 17 43.00 32.00 0.51 0.37 14.8
1 18 51.00 41.00 0.37 5.00 19.8
1 19 41.00 37.00 0.18 0.00 19.8
1 20 38.00 34.00 0.26 0.00 19.8
1 21 46.00 25.00 0.01 1.06 20.9
1 22 43.00 28.00 0.23 0.31 21.2
1 23 55.00 34.00 0.00 5.28 26.5
1 24 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 29.1
1 25 48.00 28.00 0.00 1.83 30.9
1 26 38.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 30.9
1 27 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 30.9
1 28 42.00 25.00 0.00 0.10 31.0
1 29 40.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 31.0
1 30 34.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 31.0
1 31 34.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 31.0
2 1 36.00 30.00 0.10 0.00 31.0
2 2 36.00 32.00 0.12 0.00 31.0
2 3 44.00 32.00 0.01 0.65 31.6
2 4 35.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 5 34.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 6 38.00 15.00 0.03 0.00 31.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
2 7 39.00 -8.00 0.01 0.00 31.6
2 8 38.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 9 27.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 10 28.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 11 24.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 12 33.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 13 34.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 14 32.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 31.6
2 15 44.00 21.00 0.29 0.47 32.1
2 16 45.00 28.00 0.19 0.84 33.0
2 17 44.00 31.00 0.03 0.63 33.6
2 18 36.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 19 31.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 20 35.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 21 37.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 22 39.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 23 38.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 24 39.00 26.00 0.03 0.00 33.6
2 25 33.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 26 32.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 27 33.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
2 28 38.00 15.00 0.01 0.00 33.6
3 1 31.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
3 2 36.00 22.00 0.01 0.00 33.6
3 3 33.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
3 4 31.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
3 5 30.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 33.6
3 6 40.00 21.00 0.04 0.00 33.6
3 7 45.00 16.00 0.09 0.64 34.2
3 8 41.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 34.2
3 9 38.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 34.2
3 10 38.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 34.2
3 11 36.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 34.2
3 12 40.00 26.00 0.05 0.00 34.2
3 13 50.00 21.00 0.00 2.20 36.4
3 14 47.00 19.00 0.00 1.21 37.6
3 15 49.00 25.00 0.00 2.03 39.7
3 16 49.00 23.00 0.00 1.95 41.6
3 17 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 44.1
3 18 54.00 23.00 0.00 3.75 47.9
3 19 57.00 26.00 0.00 5.19 53.0
3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 60.2
3 21 68.00 32.00 0.00 10.96 71.1
3 22 69.00 34.00 0.00 11.86 83.0
3 23 64.00 43.00 0.16 12.50 95.5
3 24 60.00 40.00 0.16 9.10 104.6
3 25 54.00 32.00 0.03 4.56 109.1
3 26 62.00 38.00 0.00 9.46 118.6
3 27 56.00 35.00 0.00 5.90 124.5
3 28 63.00 33.00 0.00 8.80 133.3
3 29 63.00 34.00 0.00 9.00 142.3
3 30 66.00 34.00 0.00 10.42 152.7
3 31 69.00 33.00 0.00 11.64 164.4
4 1 68.00 38.00 0.00 12.41 176.8
4 2 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 194.8
4 3 67.00 47.00 0.00 16.00 210.8
4 4 66.00 40.00 0.08 12.08 222.8
4 5 66.00 47.00 0.07 15.50 238.3
4 6 62.00 40.00 0.18 10.09 248.4
4 7 59.00 46.00 0.26 11.50 259.9
4 8 54.00 46.00 0.16 9.00 268.9
4 9 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 280.9
4 10 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 289.9
4 11 64.00 45.00 0.01 13.50 303.4
4 12 64.00 43.00 0.00 12.50 315.9
4 13 58.00 38.00 0.06 7.50 323.4
4 14 56.00 35.00 0.00 5.90 329.3
4 15 62.00 32.00 0.00 8.16 337.5
4 16 66.00 46.00 0.00 15.00 352.5
4 17 74.00 46.00 0.00 19.00 371.5
4 18 82.00 41.00 0.00 20.50 392.0
4 19 80.00 54.00 0.02 26.00 418.0
4 20 72.00 51.00 0.02 20.50 438.5
4 21 71.00 42.00 0.00 15.50 454.0
4 22 76.00 38.00 0.00 16.36 470.4
4 23 77.00 49.00 0.00 22.00 492.4
4 24 72.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 511.4
4 25 73.00 35.00 0.00 14.03 525.4
4 26 74.00 50.00 0.00 21.00 546.4
4 27 61.00 39.00 0.02 9.26 555.6
4 28 64.00 36.00 0.00 9.91 565.6
4 29 65.00 32.00 0.00 9.55 575.1
4 30 72.00 37.00 0.00 14.08 589.2
5 1 72.00 33.00 0.00 13.07 602.3
5 2 75.00 33.00 0.00 14.51 616.8
5 3 76.00 36.00 0.00 15.76 632.5
5 4 80.00 39.00 0.00 18.69 651.2
5 5 83.00 47.00 0.00 24.00 675.2
5 6 83.00 49.00 0.00 25.00 700.2
5 7 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 730.2
5 8 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 757.2
5 9 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 780.7
5 10 94.00 41.00 0.00 26.50 807.2
5 11 91.00 43.00 0.00 26.00 833.2
5 12 92.00 50.00 0.00 30.00 863.2 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 13 86.00 45.00 0.00 24.50 887.7
5 14 72.00 48.00 0.02 19.00 906.7
5 15 67.00 40.00 0.03 12.58 919.3
5 16 70.00 46.00 0.57 17.00 936.3
5 17 72.00 50.00 0.14 20.00 956.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 74.00 40.00 0.12 16.07 972.4
5 19 71.00 53.00 0.09 21.00 993.4
5 20 75.00 49.00 0.42 21.00 1014.4 Peak egg laying
5 21 61.70 49.20 0.00 14.45 1028.8 Px Pn
5 22 72.30 55.80 0.00 23.05 1051.9 Px Pn
5 23 85.00 56.00 0.00 29.50 1081.4
5 24 77.00 56.00 0.00 25.50 1106.9
5 25 75.00 46.00 0.01 19.50 1126.4
5 26 74.00 56.00 0.01 24.00 1150.4
5 27 84.00 56.00 0.00 29.00 1179.4
5 28 89.00 55.00 0.00 31.00 1210.4
5 29 84.00 51.00 0.00 26.50 1236.9
5 30 88.00 60.00 0.00 33.00 1269.9
5 31 93.00 58.00 0.00 34.50 1304.4 Peak egg hatch
6 1 98.00 57.00 0.00 36.50 1340.9
6 2 99.00 55.00 0.00 36.00 1376.9
6 3 94.00 58.00 0.00 35.00 1411.9
6 4 87.00 49.00 0.00 27.00 1438.9
6 5 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 1470.4
6 6 72.00 51.00 0.00 20.50 1490.9
6 7 73.00 41.00 0.00 16.00 1506.9
6 8 84.00 45.00 0.00 23.50 1530.4
6 9 84.00 43.00 0.15 22.50 1552.9
6 10 91.00 49.00 0.00 29.00 1581.9
6 11 91.00 59.00 0.00 34.00 1615.9
6 12 96.00 55.00 0.00 34.50 1650.4
6 13 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 1690.9
6 14 87.00 53.00 0.00 29.00 1719.9
6 15 92.00 51.00 0.00 30.50 1750.4
6 16 96.00 56.00 0.00 35.00 1785.4
6 17 94.00 68.00 0.00 40.00 1825.4
6 18 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 1860.4
6 19 79.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 1885.9
6 20 75.00 49.00 0.00 21.00 1906.9
6 21 80.00 54.00 0.00 26.00 1932.9
6 22 86.00 49.00 0.00 26.50 1959.4
6 23 81.00 53.00 0.00 26.00 1985.4
6 24 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 2008.9
6 25 84.00 49.00 0.00 25.50 2034.4
6 26 81.00 48.00 0.29 23.50 2057.9
6 27 77.00 47.00 0.00 21.00 2078.9 Peak in density large larvae
6 28 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 2101.4
6 29 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 2127.4
6 30 90.00 56.00 0.00 32.00 2159.4
7 1 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2190.9
7 2 83.00 54.00 0.11 27.50 2218.4
7 3 85.00 52.00 0.00 27.50 2245.9
7 4 91.00 53.00 0.00 31.00 2276.9
7 5 93.00 54.00 0.00 32.50 2309.4
7 6 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 2338.4
7 7 84.00 52.00 0.00 27.00 2365.4
7 8 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 2393.9
7 9 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 2423.9
7 10 90.00 66.00 0.00 37.00 2460.9
7 11 93.00 65.00 0.00 38.00 2498.9
7 12 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2531.4
7 13 91.00 60.00 0.00 34.50 2565.9
7 14 91.00 54.00 0.00 31.50 2597.4
7 15 85.00 60.00 0.00 31.50 2628.9
7 16 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2660.4
7 17 86.00 60.00 0.00 32.00 2692.4
7 18 83.00 60.00 0.00 30.50 2722.9
7 19 83.00 49.00 0.00 25.00 2747.9
7 20 88.00 48.00 0.00 27.00 2774.9
7 21 95.00 48.00 0.00 30.50 2805.4
7 22 100.00 60.00 0.00 39.00 2844.4
7 23 100.00 60.00 0.10 39.00 2883.4
7 24 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 2913.9
7 25 94.00 50.00 0.00 31.00 2944.9
7 26 99.00 53.00 0.00 35.00 2979.9
7 27 91.00 58.00 0.00 33.50 3013.4
7 28 91.00 50.00 0.00 29.50 3042.9
7 29 96.00 52.00 0.00 33.00 3075.9
7 30 95.00 59.00 0.00 36.00 3111.9
7 31 95.00 54.00 0.00 33.50 3145.4
8 1 99.00 57.00 0.00 37.00 3182.4
8 2 93.00 65.00 0.00 38.00 3220.4
8 3 91.00 54.00 0.00 31.50 3251.9
8 4 95.00 53.00 0.00 33.00 3284.9
8 5 101.00 57.00 0.00 38.00 3322.9
8 6 105.00 66.00 0.00 44.50 3367.4
8 7 108.00 62.00 0.00 44.00 3411.4
8 8 91.00 64.00 0.01 36.50 3447.9
8 9 89.00 65.00 0.03 36.00 3483.9
8 10 87.00 60.00 1.10 32.50 3516.4
8 11 84.00 61.00 1.10 31.50 3547.9
8 12 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 3576.9
8 13 92.00 53.00 0.00 31.50 3608.4
8 14 94.00 59.00 0.00 35.50 3643.9
8 15 94.00 63.00 0.00 37.50 3681.4
8 16 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 3713.9
8 17 88.00 65.00 0.00 35.50 3749.4
8 18 91.00 54.00 0.00 31.50 3780.9
8 19 94.00 55.00 0.00 33.50 3814.4
8 20 97.00 55.00 0.00 35.00 3849.4
8 21 91.00 59.00 0.13 34.00 3883.4
8 22 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 3912.9
8 23 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 3942.9
8 24 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 3977.9
8 25 86.00 54.00 0.00 29.00 4006.9
8 26 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 4033.9
8 27 92.00 49.00 0.00 29.50 4063.4
8 28 98.00 50.00 0.00 33.00 4096.4
8 29 87.00 63.00 0.00 34.00 4130.4
8 30 93.00 63.00 0.00 37.00 4167.4
8 31 94.00 53.00 0.00 32.50 4199.9
9 1 92.00 56.00 0.01 33.00 4232.9
9 2 89.00 50.00 0.00 28.50 4261.4
9 3 93.00 53.00 0.00 32.00 4293.4
9 4 89.00 51.00 0.00 29.00 4322.4
9 5 91.00 50.00 0.00 29.50 4351.9
9 6 88.00 64.00 0.00 35.00 4386.9
9 7 87.00 55.00 0.06 30.00 4416.9
9 8 81.00 58.00 0.04 28.50 4445.4
9 9 74.00 55.00 0.05 23.50 4468.9
9 10 78.00 47.00 0.00 21.50 4490.4
9 11 80.00 46.00 0.00 22.00 4512.4
9 12 86.00 45.00 0.00 24.50 4536.9
9 13 81.00 53.00 0.00 26.00 4562.9
9 14 81.00 53.00 0.00 26.00 4588.9
9 15 74.00 48.00 0.02 20.00 4608.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AU155 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 AU155 N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-12-19 | 863 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-17-19 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-20-19 | 1014 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-31-19 | 1304 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-27-19 | 2079 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2052142)
