Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 48.20 28.80 0.00 1.94 1.9 * START * 1 2 44.70 36.50 0.00 1.11 3.1 1 3 46.30 36.50 0.00 1.76 4.8 1 4 47.10 33.40 0.08 1.82 6.6 1 5 54.00 39.50 0.26 5.96 12.6 1 6 51.50 39.10 0.01 4.62 17.2 1 7 47.40 38.40 0.06 2.51 19.7 1 8 47.40 37.30 0.04 2.34 22.1 1 9 47.70 41.90 0.42 3.80 25.9 1 10 50.80 42.50 0.03 5.65 31.5 1 11 55.30 49.20 0.62 11.25 42.8 1 12 54.60 48.50 0.02 10.55 53.3 1 13 60.00 43.50 0.00 10.75 64.1 1 14 58.70 35.60 0.00 7.29 71.4 1 15 59.60 36.70 0.10 7.96 79.3 1 16 56.50 43.30 0.04 8.90 88.2 1 17 52.90 41.90 0.25 6.40 94.6 1 18 51.70 41.30 0.08 5.50 100.1 1 19 47.50 41.50 0.00 3.50 103.6 1 20 48.20 42.30 0.01 4.25 107.9 1 21 51.60 40.30 0.08 5.02 112.9 1 22 50.30 40.40 0.18 4.41 117.3 1 23 52.10 39.50 0.11 5.02 122.3 1 24 53.80 41.00 0.13 6.40 128.7 1 25 47.40 37.30 0.19 2.34 131.1 1 26 47.40 39.40 0.12 2.71 133.8 1 27 53.60 43.10 0.19 7.35 141.1 1 28 61.90 48.40 0.00 14.15 155.3 1 29 56.00 44.40 0.35 9.20 164.5 1 30 49.90 36.70 0.05 3.38 167.8 1 31 47.60 38.40 0.02 2.60 170.5 2 1 50.40 42.00 0.13 5.20 175.7 2 2 57.90 47.80 0.00 11.85 187.5 2 3 57.90 47.10 0.02 11.50 199.0 2 4 58.50 50.30 0.00 13.40 212.4 2 5 57.90 41.30 0.00 8.60 221.0 2 6 53.80 35.40 0.00 4.96 226.0 2 7 55.70 37.40 0.00 6.24 232.2 2 8 57.50 40.40 0.01 8.00 240.2 2 9 50.70 42.60 0.00 5.65 245.8 2 10 50.20 34.10 0.00 3.16 249.0 2 11 48.20 35.20 0.00 2.43 251.4 2 12 47.70 33.60 0.00 2.07 253.5 2 13 49.40 25.90 0.00 2.22 255.7 2 14 48.00 35.00 0.13 2.33 258.1 2 15 50.00 37.90 0.00 3.63 261.7 2 16 49.30 41.20 0.00 4.25 265.9 2 17 52.40 42.90 0.13 6.65 272.6 2 18 42.30 32.30 0.12 0.20 272.8 2 19 39.00 30.80 0.00 0.00 272.8 2 20 38.20 28.80 0.03 0.00 272.8 2 21 37.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 272.8 2 22 39.60 30.60 0.01 0.00 272.8 2 23 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 272.8 2 24 49.70 37.00 0.02 3.34 276.1 2 25 45.50 34.40 0.09 1.27 277.4 2 26 44.90 32.80 0.00 0.97 278.4 2 27 45.50 35.10 0.02 1.32 279.7 2 28 47.20 39.80 0.06 2.71 282.4 3 1 47.90 36.70 0.00 2.48 284.9 3 2 49.70 35.50 0.00 3.12 288.0 3 3 52.10 34.60 0.00 4.06 292.1 3 4 50.80 31.50 0.00 3.15 295.2 3 5 51.70 35.40 0.00 4.00 299.2 3 6 56.40 33.80 0.00 5.89 305.1 3 7 54.00 32.90 0.00 4.67 309.8 3 8 55.30 39.20 0.01 6.51 316.3 3 9 52.50 37.30 0.01 4.70 321.0 3 10 61.30 35.50 0.00 8.50 329.5 3 11 67.60 37.90 0.00 12.18 341.7 3 12 71.50 43.00 0.00 16.25 357.9 3 13 62.70 46.80 0.09 13.75 371.7 3 14 53.00 37.10 0.04 4.89 376.5 3 15 52.90 32.30 0.33 4.12 380.7 3 16 51.90 38.60 0.01 4.69 385.4 3 17 49.60 39.50 0.09 3.80 389.2 3 18 53.50 38.30 0.00 5.39 394.5 3 19 57.60 34.40 0.00 6.54 401.1 3 20 60.80 31.30 0.00 7.50 408.6 3 21 53.80 37.60 0.00 5.38 414.0 3 22 47.90 38.20 0.09 2.71 416.7 3 23 43.10 35.10 0.09 0.47 417.1 3 24 43.60 34.50 0.26 0.61 417.7 3 25 52.10 38.40 0.05 4.74 422.5 3 26 49.00 36.50 0.03 2.94 425.4 3 27 55.70 45.30 0.04 9.50 434.9 3 28 58.10 42.30 0.00 9.20 444.1 3 29 59.80 34.90 0.00 7.67 451.8 3 30 58.90 40.30 0.00 8.66 460.5 3 31 61.40 44.60 0.00 12.00 472.5 4 1 47.60 37.40 0.14 2.44 474.9 4 2 52.20 35.70 0.01 4.27 479.2 4 3 52.20 32.80 0.00 3.87 483.0 4 4 62.00 45.50 0.01 12.75 495.8 4 5 52.80 47.40 0.34 9.10 504.9 4 6 68.10 52.50 0.06 19.30 524.2 4 7 59.70 46.70 0.48 12.20 536.4 4 8 52.60 45.60 0.19 8.10 544.5 4 9 68.60 40.90 0.00 13.75 558.2 4 10 59.40 49.60 0.09 13.50 571.7 4 11 57.00 42.80 0.14 8.90 580.6 4 12 50.50 39.80 0.00 4.32 585.0 4 13 55.90 45.40 0.00 9.65 594.6 4 14 57.90 47.90 0.03 11.90 606.5 4 15 48.60 42.90 0.21 4.75 611.3 4 16 48.50 40.40 0.00 3.52 614.8 4 17 52.70 42.60 0.00 6.65 621.4 4 18 60.60 42.50 0.00 10.55 632.0 4 19 66.60 36.40 0.00 11.27 643.3 4 20 65.10 36.60 0.00 10.60 653.9 4 21 61.60 46.70 0.00 13.15 667.0 4 22 64.70 37.10 0.00 10.53 677.5 4 23 75.30 45.80 0.00 19.55 697.1 4 24 81.80 59.50 0.00 29.65 726.7 4 25 85.00 47.60 0.00 25.30 752.0 4 26 77.30 52.10 0.00 23.70 775.7 4 27 54.90 48.10 0.07 10.50 786.2 4 28 62.40 44.90 0.13 12.65 798.9 4 29 58.90 46.90 0.03 11.90 810.8 4 30 55.50 45.70 0.01 9.60 820.4 5 1 59.50 47.70 0.00 12.60 833.0 5 2 74.20 43.50 0.00 17.85 850.8 peak pheromone trap catch 5 3 76.10 45.20 0.00 19.65 870.5 5 4 64.60 50.50 0.00 16.55 887.0 5 5 74.10 50.40 0.00 21.25 908.3 5 6 69.80 52.60 0.00 20.20 928.5 5 7 75.50 50.60 0.00 22.05 950.5 peak female adult emergence 5 8 75.60 48.60 0.08 21.10 971.6 5 9 65.80 52.20 0.05 18.00 989.6 5 10 60.80 48.80 0.27 13.80 1003.4 peak egg laying 5 11 65.20 46.10 0.00 14.65 1018.1 5 12 79.80 48.70 0.00 23.25 1041.3 5 13 88.60 48.90 0.00 27.75 1069.1 5 14 85.40 52.00 0.00 27.70 1096.8 5 15 70.90 50.80 0.00 19.85 1116.6 5 16 65.00 54.60 0.00 18.80 1135.4 5 17 65.70 53.40 0.00 18.55 1154.0 5 18 69.60 51.90 0.00 19.75 1173.7 5 19 67.60 50.30 0.00 17.95 1191.7 5 20 70.50 53.10 0.00 20.80 1212.5 5 21 73.00 45.30 0.00 18.15 1230.6 5 22 86.20 48.30 0.00 26.25 1256.9 5 23 78.70 54.80 0.00 25.75 1282.6 peak egg hatch 5 24 75.00 56.90 0.00 24.95 1307.6 5 25 67.80 53.40 0.00 19.60 1327.2 5 26 66.30 47.80 0.00 16.05 1343.2 5 27 78.50 46.70 0.00 21.60 1364.8 5 28 72.90 47.50 0.00 19.20 1384.0 5 29 67.40 50.00 0.00 17.70 1401.7 5 30 68.00 38.90 0.00 12.69 1414.4 5 31 61.20 49.10 0.15 14.15 1428.6 6 1 70.60 47.20 0.01 17.90 1446.5 6 2 82.10 48.80 0.00 24.45 1470.9 6 3 73.40 53.20 0.00 22.30 1493.2 6 4 68.00 53.50 0.00 19.75 1513.0 6 5 72.00 44.00 0.00 17.00 1530.0 6 6 79.00 45.70 0.00 21.35 1551.3 6 7 69.50 53.40 0.00 20.45 1571.8 6 8 68.50 54.50 0.23 20.50 1592.3 6 9 60.90 50.00 0.27 14.45 1606.7 6 10 55.80 48.20 0.32 11.00 1617.7 6 11 70.00 49.60 0.01 18.80 1636.5 6 12 77.90 44.20 0.00 20.05 1656.6 6 13 67.70 54.40 0.00 20.05 1676.6 6 14 66.10 53.50 0.00 18.80 1695.4 6 15 69.40 50.20 0.00 18.80 1714.2 6 16 76.70 55.40 0.00 25.05 1739.3 6 17 89.40 52.90 0.03 30.15 1769.4 6 18 82.20 54.20 0.00 27.20 1796.6 6 19 89.60 54.40 0.00 31.00 1827.6 6 20 89.00 60.20 0.00 33.60 1861.2 6 21 72.20 59.20 0.00 24.70 1885.9 6 22 76.10 60.10 0.00 27.10 1913.0 6 23 74.60 57.00 0.00 24.80 1937.8 6 24 89.30 54.60 0.00 30.95 1968.8 6 25 73.80 56.10 0.00 23.95 1992.7 6 26 74.50 51.50 0.00 22.00 2014.7 6 27 77.20 47.90 0.00 21.55 2036.3 6 28 74.40 50.10 0.00 21.25 2057.5 6 29 79.10 49.90 0.00 23.50 2081.0 peak in density large larvae 6 30 79.80 56.50 0.00 27.15 2108.2 7 1 77.70 57.50 0.00 26.60 2134.8 7 2 70.30 49.50 0.00 18.90 2153.7 7 3 75.80 45.80 0.00 19.80 2173.5 7 4 78.90 56.20 0.00 26.55 2200.0 7 5 85.20 52.90 0.00 28.05 2228.1 7 6 78.30 55.90 0.00 26.10 2254.2 7 7 80.50 56.70 0.00 27.60 2281.8 7 8 86.10 54.70 0.00 29.40 2311.2 7 9 67.50 52.30 0.00 18.90 2330.1 7 10 76.10 56.90 0.00 25.50 2355.6 7 11 88.10 53.20 0.00 29.65 2385.2 7 12 96.60 61.80 0.00 38.20 2423.4 7 13 94.00 58.40 0.00 35.20 2458.6 7 14 91.30 55.80 0.00 32.55 2491.2
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2491QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 6 days ahead 2017 ok
 12 days behind 2016 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for ARAO data
  7 15  93.10 59.80  0.00  35.45   2526.6  0.00_26.45%_precip.    
  7 16  89.90 62.00  0.00  34.95   2561.6  0.00_25.95%_precip.    
  7 17  87.60 56.00  0.00  30.80   2592.4  0.00_21.80%_precip.    
  7 18  75.80 54.10  0.00  23.95   2616.3  0.003_14.95%_precip.    
  7 19  80.70 49.70  0.00  24.20   2640.5  0.00_15.20%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg ARAO 2006-2015
  7 20  81.40 55.60  0.03  27.50   2668.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  80.90 55.10  0.01  27.00   2695.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.20 55.70  0.00  27.95   2723.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  78.70 57.00  0.03  26.85   2749.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  80.90 55.60  0.04  27.25   2777.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  84.70 55.10  0.00  28.90   2806.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  83.50 55.40  0.01  28.45   2834.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  83.90 55.50  0.00  28.70   2863.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  83.30 55.70  0.00  28.50   2891.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  83.90 56.60  0.00  29.25   2920.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  83.80 57.50  0.00  29.65   2950.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  83.40 55.70  0.00  28.55   2979.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  84.30 54.50  0.00  28.40   3007.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  83.20 56.00  0.01  28.60   3036.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.10 56.10  0.00  28.10   3064.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.00 55.60  0.00  28.80   3093.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.30 55.40  0.00  29.85   3122.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.50 56.00  0.00  29.25   3152.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  82.30 56.70  0.00  28.50   3180.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.40 56.00  0.00  27.20   3207.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  77.80 56.00  0.00  25.90   3233.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  78.50 56.20  0.00  26.35   3260.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  80.80 55.40  0.00  27.10   3287.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  82.90 56.20  0.04  28.55   3315.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.80 55.70  0.01  27.75   3343.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  83.60 56.00  0.00  28.80   3372.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.20 57.40  0.00  30.30   3402.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.10 58.10  0.00  30.10   3432.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 57.10  0.00  30.45   3463.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 57.10  0.00  30.65   3493.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  83.50 56.70  0.04  29.10   3522.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.70 56.60  0.05  28.65   3551.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.20 54.60  0.05  26.40   3577.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.20 53.90  0.01  25.55   3603.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  79.40 53.90  0.00  25.65   3629.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  80.20 53.70  0.01  25.95   3655.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  81.70 54.30  0.04  27.00   3682.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.10 54.20  0.01  27.15   3709.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  82.40 54.30  0.00  27.35   3736.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  83.50 55.00  0.00  28.25   3764.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.50 55.60  0.01  27.55   3792.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  76.50 55.60  0.07  25.05   3817.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.60 54.40  0.07  24.00   3841.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  75.80 52.30  0.01  23.05   3864.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.00 52.60  0.00  24.80   3889.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.80 51.80  0.00  25.30   3914.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  80.60 52.40  0.01  25.50   3940.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  78.90 52.80  0.03  24.85   3964.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  78.50 53.30  0.17  24.90   3989.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  79.70 52.90  0.13  25.30   4015.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.50 52.90  0.03  25.70   4040.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.90 53.30  0.01  25.60   4066.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  79.80 53.30  0.00  25.55   4091.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.30 52.90  0.00  27.10   4119.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.40 52.90  0.00  28.65   4147.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  82.60 52.80  0.00  26.70   4174.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  76.40 53.10  0.00  23.75   4198.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  75.70 53.00  0.02  23.35   4221.5  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 ARAO AURORA OR
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2491 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 6 days ahead 2017 ok
 12 days behind 2016 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-2-18 851peak pheromone trap catch
 5-7-18 951peak female adult emergence
 5-10-18 1003peak egg laying
 5-23-18 1283peak egg hatch
 6-29-18 2081peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)