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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 48.20 28.80 0.00 1.94 1.9 * START *
1 2 44.70 36.50 0.00 1.11 3.1
1 3 46.30 36.50 0.00 1.76 4.8
1 4 47.10 33.40 0.08 1.82 6.6
1 5 54.00 39.50 0.26 5.96 12.6
1 6 51.50 39.10 0.01 4.62 17.2
1 7 47.40 38.40 0.06 2.51 19.7
1 8 47.40 37.30 0.04 2.34 22.1
1 9 47.70 41.90 0.42 3.80 25.9
1 10 50.80 42.50 0.03 5.65 31.5
1 11 55.30 49.20 0.62 11.25 42.8
1 12 54.60 48.50 0.02 10.55 53.3
1 13 60.00 43.50 0.00 10.75 64.1
1 14 58.70 35.60 0.00 7.29 71.4
1 15 59.60 36.70 0.10 7.96 79.3
1 16 56.50 43.30 0.04 8.90 88.2
1 17 52.90 41.90 0.25 6.40 94.6
1 18 51.70 41.30 0.08 5.50 100.1
1 19 47.50 41.50 0.00 3.50 103.6
1 20 48.20 42.30 0.01 4.25 107.9
1 21 51.60 40.30 0.08 5.02 112.9
1 22 50.30 40.40 0.18 4.41 117.3
1 23 52.10 39.50 0.11 5.02 122.3
1 24 53.80 41.00 0.13 6.40 128.7
1 25 47.40 37.30 0.19 2.34 131.1
1 26 47.40 39.40 0.12 2.71 133.8
1 27 53.60 43.10 0.19 7.35 141.1
1 28 61.90 48.40 0.00 14.15 155.3
1 29 56.00 44.40 0.35 9.20 164.5
1 30 49.90 36.70 0.05 3.38 167.8
1 31 47.60 38.40 0.02 2.60 170.5
2 1 50.40 42.00 0.13 5.20 175.7
2 2 57.90 47.80 0.00 11.85 187.5
2 3 57.90 47.10 0.02 11.50 199.0
2 4 58.50 50.30 0.00 13.40 212.4
2 5 57.90 41.30 0.00 8.60 221.0
2 6 53.80 35.40 0.00 4.96 226.0
2 7 55.70 37.40 0.00 6.24 232.2
2 8 57.50 40.40 0.01 8.00 240.2
2 9 50.70 42.60 0.00 5.65 245.8
2 10 50.20 34.10 0.00 3.16 249.0
2 11 48.20 35.20 0.00 2.43 251.4
2 12 47.70 33.60 0.00 2.07 253.5
2 13 49.40 25.90 0.00 2.22 255.7
2 14 48.00 35.00 0.13 2.33 258.1
2 15 50.00 37.90 0.00 3.63 261.7
2 16 49.30 41.20 0.00 4.25 265.9
2 17 52.40 42.90 0.13 6.65 272.6
2 18 42.30 32.30 0.12 0.20 272.8
2 19 39.00 30.80 0.00 0.00 272.8
2 20 38.20 28.80 0.03 0.00 272.8
2 21 37.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 272.8
2 22 39.60 30.60 0.01 0.00 272.8
2 23 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 272.8
2 24 49.70 37.00 0.02 3.34 276.1
2 25 45.50 34.40 0.09 1.27 277.4
2 26 44.90 32.80 0.00 0.97 278.4
2 27 45.50 35.10 0.02 1.32 279.7
2 28 47.20 39.80 0.06 2.71 282.4
3 1 47.90 36.70 0.00 2.48 284.9
3 2 49.70 35.50 0.00 3.12 288.0
3 3 52.10 34.60 0.00 4.06 292.1
3 4 50.80 31.50 0.00 3.15 295.2
3 5 51.70 35.40 0.00 4.00 299.2
3 6 56.40 33.80 0.00 5.89 305.1
3 7 54.00 32.90 0.00 4.67 309.8
3 8 55.30 39.20 0.01 6.51 316.3
3 9 52.50 37.30 0.01 4.70 321.0
3 10 61.30 35.50 0.00 8.50 329.5
3 11 67.60 37.90 0.00 12.18 341.7
3 12 71.50 43.00 0.00 16.25 357.9
3 13 62.70 46.80 0.09 13.75 371.7
3 14 53.00 37.10 0.04 4.89 376.5
3 15 52.90 32.30 0.33 4.12 380.7
3 16 51.90 38.60 0.01 4.69 385.4
3 17 49.60 39.50 0.09 3.80 389.2
3 18 53.50 38.30 0.00 5.39 394.5
3 19 57.60 34.40 0.00 6.54 401.1
3 20 60.80 31.30 0.00 7.50 408.6
3 21 53.80 37.60 0.00 5.38 414.0
3 22 47.90 38.20 0.09 2.71 416.7
3 23 43.10 35.10 0.09 0.47 417.1
3 24 43.60 34.50 0.26 0.61 417.7
3 25 52.10 38.40 0.05 4.74 422.5
3 26 49.00 36.50 0.03 2.94 425.4
3 27 55.70 45.30 0.04 9.50 434.9
3 28 58.10 42.30 0.00 9.20 444.1
3 29 59.80 34.90 0.00 7.67 451.8
3 30 58.90 40.30 0.00 8.66 460.5
3 31 61.40 44.60 0.00 12.00 472.5
4 1 47.60 37.40 0.14 2.44 474.9
4 2 52.20 35.70 0.01 4.27 479.2
4 3 52.20 32.80 0.00 3.87 483.0
4 4 62.00 45.50 0.01 12.75 495.8
4 5 52.80 47.40 0.34 9.10 504.9
4 6 68.10 52.50 0.06 19.30 524.2
4 7 59.70 46.70 0.48 12.20 536.4
4 8 52.60 45.60 0.19 8.10 544.5
4 9 68.60 40.90 0.00 13.75 558.2
4 10 59.40 49.60 0.09 13.50 571.7
4 11 57.00 42.80 0.14 8.90 580.6
4 12 50.50 39.80 0.00 4.32 585.0
4 13 55.90 45.40 0.00 9.65 594.6
4 14 57.90 47.90 0.03 11.90 606.5
4 15 48.60 42.90 0.21 4.75 611.3
4 16 48.50 40.40 0.00 3.52 614.8
4 17 52.70 42.60 0.00 6.65 621.4
4 18 60.60 42.50 0.00 10.55 632.0
4 19 66.60 36.40 0.00 11.27 643.3
4 20 65.10 36.60 0.00 10.60 653.9
4 21 61.60 46.70 0.00 13.15 667.0
4 22 64.70 37.10 0.00 10.53 677.5
4 23 75.30 45.80 0.00 19.55 697.1
4 24 81.80 59.50 0.00 29.65 726.7
4 25 85.00 47.60 0.00 25.30 752.0
4 26 77.30 52.10 0.00 23.70 775.7
4 27 54.90 48.10 0.07 10.50 786.2
4 28 62.40 44.90 0.13 12.65 798.9
4 29 58.90 46.90 0.03 11.90 810.8
4 30 55.50 45.70 0.01 9.60 820.4
5 1 59.50 47.70 0.00 12.60 833.0
5 2 74.20 43.50 0.00 17.85 850.8 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 3 76.10 45.20 0.00 19.65 870.5
5 4 64.60 50.50 0.00 16.55 887.0
5 5 74.10 50.40 0.00 21.25 908.3
5 6 69.80 52.60 0.00 20.20 928.5
5 7 75.50 50.60 0.00 22.05 950.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 8 75.60 48.60 0.08 21.10 971.6
5 9 65.80 52.20 0.05 18.00 989.6
5 10 60.80 48.80 0.27 13.80 1003.4 Peak egg laying
5 11 65.20 46.10 0.00 14.65 1018.1
5 12 79.80 48.70 0.00 23.25 1041.3
5 13 88.60 48.90 0.00 27.75 1069.1
5 14 85.40 52.00 0.00 27.70 1096.8
5 15 70.90 50.80 0.00 19.85 1116.6
5 16 65.00 54.60 0.00 18.80 1135.4
5 17 65.70 53.40 0.00 18.55 1154.0
5 18 69.60 51.90 0.00 19.75 1173.7
5 19 67.60 50.30 0.00 17.95 1191.7
5 20 70.50 53.10 0.00 20.80 1212.5
5 21 73.00 45.30 0.00 18.15 1230.6
5 22 86.20 48.30 0.00 26.25 1256.9
5 23 78.70 54.80 0.00 25.75 1282.6 Peak egg hatch
5 24 75.00 56.90 0.00 24.95 1307.6
5 25 67.80 53.40 0.00 19.60 1327.2
5 26 66.30 47.80 0.00 16.05 1343.2
5 27 78.50 46.70 0.00 21.60 1364.8
5 28 72.90 47.50 0.00 19.20 1384.0
5 29 67.40 50.00 0.00 17.70 1401.7
5 30 68.00 38.90 0.00 12.69 1414.4
5 31 61.20 49.10 0.15 14.15 1428.6
6 1 70.60 47.20 0.01 17.90 1446.5
6 2 82.10 48.80 0.00 24.45 1470.9
6 3 73.40 53.20 0.00 22.30 1493.2
6 4 68.00 53.50 0.00 19.75 1513.0
6 5 72.00 44.00 0.00 17.00 1530.0
6 6 79.00 45.70 0.00 21.35 1551.3
6 7 69.50 53.40 0.00 20.45 1571.8
6 8 68.50 54.50 0.23 20.50 1592.3
6 9 60.90 50.00 0.27 14.45 1606.7
6 10 55.80 48.20 0.32 11.00 1617.7
6 11 70.00 49.60 0.01 18.80 1636.5
6 12 77.90 44.20 0.00 20.05 1656.6
6 13 67.70 54.40 0.00 20.05 1676.6
6 14 66.10 53.50 0.00 18.80 1695.4
6 15 69.40 50.20 0.00 18.80 1714.2
6 16 76.70 55.40 0.00 25.05 1739.3
6 17 89.40 52.90 0.03 30.15 1769.4
6 18 82.20 54.20 0.00 27.20 1796.6
6 19 89.60 54.40 0.00 31.00 1827.6
6 20 89.00 60.20 0.00 33.60 1861.2
6 21 72.20 59.20 0.00 24.70 1885.9
6 22 76.10 60.10 0.00 27.10 1913.0
6 23 74.60 57.00 0.00 24.80 1937.8
6 24 89.30 54.60 0.00 30.95 1968.8
6 25 73.80 56.10 0.00 23.95 1992.7
6 26 74.50 51.50 0.00 22.00 2014.7
6 27 77.20 47.90 0.00 21.55 2036.3
6 28 74.40 50.10 0.00 21.25 2057.5
6 29 79.10 49.90 0.00 23.50 2081.0 Peak in density large larvae
6 30 79.80 56.50 0.00 27.15 2108.2
7 1 77.70 57.50 0.00 26.60 2134.8
7 2 70.30 49.50 0.00 18.90 2153.7
7 3 75.80 45.80 0.00 19.80 2173.5
7 4 78.90 56.20 0.00 26.55 2200.0
7 5 85.20 52.90 0.00 28.05 2228.1
7 6 78.30 55.90 0.00 26.10 2254.2
7 7 80.50 56.70 0.00 27.60 2281.8
7 8 86.10 54.70 0.00 29.40 2311.2
7 9 67.50 52.30 0.00 18.90 2330.1
7 10 76.10 56.90 0.00 25.50 2355.6
7 11 88.10 53.20 0.00 29.65 2385.2
7 12 96.60 61.80 0.00 38.20 2423.4
7 13 94.00 58.40 0.00 35.20 2458.6
7 14 91.30 55.80 0.00 32.55 2491.2
7 15 96.30 59.40 0.00 36.85 2528.0
7 16 97.10 60.70 0.00 37.90 2565.9
7 17 90.50 58.40 0.00 33.45 2599.4
7 18 84.10 56.60 0.00 29.35 2628.7
7 19 72.80 54.80 0.00 22.80 2651.5
7 20 78.70 49.10 0.00 22.90 2674.4
7 21 79.80 48.20 0.00 23.00 2697.4
7 22 93.50 53.60 0.00 32.55 2730.0
7 23 94.40 56.80 0.00 34.60 2764.6
7 24 94.10 56.60 0.00 34.35 2798.9
7 25 95.30 58.40 0.00 35.85 2834.8
7 26 95.30 58.50 0.00 35.90 2870.7
7 27 91.00 57.30 0.00 33.15 2903.8
7 28 90.40 54.90 0.00 31.65 2935.5
7 29 97.40 60.30 0.00 37.85 2973.3
7 30 90.50 62.50 0.00 35.50 3008.8
7 31 88.90 58.20 0.00 32.55 3041.4
8 1 86.90 58.40 0.00 31.65 3073.0
8 2 72.20 58.20 0.00 24.20 3097.2
8 3 77.00 60.50 0.00 27.75 3125.0
8 4 84.50 54.80 0.00 28.65 3153.6
8 5 90.60 54.80 0.00 31.70 3185.3
8 6 90.50 57.40 0.00 32.95 3218.3
8 7 94.60 59.30 0.00 35.95 3254.2
8 8 91.80 60.90 0.00 35.35 3289.6
8 9 95.90 58.60 0.00 36.25 3325.8
8 10 88.30 61.20 0.00 33.75 3359.6
8 11 76.70 61.40 0.00 28.05 3387.6
8 12 77.10 58.70 0.00 26.90 3414.5
8 13 91.20 55.20 0.00 32.20 3446.7
8 14 93.40 56.90 0.00 34.15 3480.9
8 15 85.50 59.60 0.00 31.55 3512.4
8 16 81.90 56.90 0.00 28.40 3540.8
8 17 80.90 50.10 0.00 24.50 3565.3
8 18 85.90 52.20 0.00 28.05 3593.4
8 19 88.00 53.40 0.00 29.70 3623.1
8 20 81.80 56.20 0.00 28.00 3651.1
8 21 92.10 63.00 0.00 36.55 3687.6
8 22 91.70 57.10 0.00 33.40 3721.0
8 23 70.00 52.50 0.00 20.25 3741.3
8 24 69.80 51.60 0.00 19.70 3761.0
8 25 71.40 46.00 0.00 17.70 3778.7
8 26 67.40 58.90 0.00 22.15 3800.8
8 27 76.50 59.00 0.01 26.75 3827.6
8 28 88.00 58.30 0.00 32.15 3859.7
8 29 85.20 51.40 0.00 27.30 3887.0
8 30 74.00 56.40 0.00 24.20 3911.2
8 31 75.20 59.30 0.00 26.25 3937.5
9 1 73.20 47.70 0.00 19.45 3956.9
9 2 80.90 47.50 0.00 23.20 3980.1
9 3 77.60 50.00 0.00 22.80 4002.9
9 4 82.10 44.90 0.00 22.50 4025.4
9 5 88.20 51.50 0.00 28.85 4054.3
9 6 85.60 51.20 0.00 27.40 4081.7
9 7 81.00 48.70 0.00 23.85 4105.5
9 8 76.00 56.70 0.03 25.35 4130.9
9 9 76.90 49.40 0.00 22.15 4153.0
9 10 76.60 57.60 0.01 26.10 4179.1 Px
9 11 65.30 52.20 0.23 17.75 4196.9
9 12 66.20 51.50 0.03 17.85 4214.7
9 13 68.90 48.10 0.01 17.50 4232.2
9 14 70.40 45.70 0.00 17.05 4249.3
9 15 66.40 47.10 0.00 15.75 4265.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-18 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-7-18 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-10-18 | 1003 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-23-18 | 1283 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-29-18 | 2081 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1669332)
