Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 48.20 28.80 0.00 1.94 1.9 * START * 1 2 44.70 36.50 0.00 1.11 3.1 1 3 46.30 36.50 0.00 1.76 4.8 1 4 47.10 33.40 0.08 1.82 6.6 1 5 54.00 39.50 0.26 5.96 12.6 1 6 51.50 39.10 0.01 4.62 17.2 1 7 47.40 38.40 0.06 2.51 19.7 1 8 47.40 37.30 0.04 2.34 22.1 1 9 47.70 41.90 0.42 3.80 25.9 1 10 50.80 42.50 0.03 5.65 31.5 1 11 55.30 49.20 0.62 11.25 42.8 1 12 54.60 48.50 0.02 10.55 53.3 1 13 60.00 43.50 0.00 10.75 64.1 1 14 58.70 35.60 0.00 7.29 71.4 1 15 59.60 36.70 0.10 7.96 79.3 1 16 56.50 43.30 0.04 8.90 88.2 1 17 52.90 41.90 0.25 6.40 94.6 1 18 51.70 41.30 0.08 5.50 100.1 1 19 47.50 41.50 0.00 3.50 103.6 1 20 48.20 42.30 0.01 4.25 107.9 1 21 51.60 40.30 0.08 5.02 112.9 1 22 50.30 40.40 0.18 4.41 117.3 1 23 52.10 39.50 0.11 5.02 122.3 1 24 53.80 41.00 0.13 6.40 128.7 1 25 47.40 37.30 0.19 2.34 131.1 1 26 47.40 39.40 0.12 2.71 133.8 1 27 53.60 43.10 0.19 7.35 141.1 1 28 61.90 48.40 0.00 14.15 155.3 1 29 56.00 44.40 0.35 9.20 164.5 1 30 49.90 36.70 0.05 3.38 167.8 1 31 47.60 38.40 0.02 2.60 170.5 2 1 50.40 42.00 0.13 5.20 175.7 2 2 57.90 47.80 0.00 11.85 187.5 2 3 57.90 47.10 0.02 11.50 199.0 2 4 58.50 50.30 0.00 13.40 212.4 2 5 57.90 41.30 0.00 8.60 221.0 2 6 53.80 35.40 0.00 4.96 226.0 2 7 55.70 37.40 0.00 6.24 232.2 2 8 57.50 40.40 0.01 8.00 240.2 2 9 50.70 42.60 0.00 5.65 245.8 2 10 50.20 34.10 0.00 3.16 249.0 2 11 48.20 35.20 0.00 2.43 251.4 2 12 47.70 33.60 0.00 2.07 253.5 2 13 49.40 25.90 0.00 2.22 255.7 2 14 48.00 35.00 0.13 2.33 258.1 2 15 50.00 37.90 0.00 3.63 261.7 2 16 49.30 41.20 0.00 4.25 265.9 2 17 52.40 42.90 0.13 6.65 272.6 2 18 42.30 32.30 0.12 0.20 272.8 2 19 39.00 30.80 0.00 0.00 272.8 2 20 38.20 28.80 0.03 0.00 272.8 2 21 37.80 28.40 0.00 0.00 272.8 2 22 39.60 30.60 0.01 0.00 272.8 2 23 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 272.8 2 24 49.70 37.00 0.02 3.34 276.1 2 25 45.50 34.40 0.09 1.27 277.4 2 26 44.90 32.80 0.00 0.97 278.4 2 27 45.50 35.10 0.02 1.32 279.7 2 28 47.20 39.80 0.06 2.71 282.4 3 1 47.90 36.70 0.00 2.48 284.9 3 2 49.70 35.50 0.00 3.12 288.0 3 3 52.10 34.60 0.00 4.06 292.1 3 4 50.80 31.50 0.00 3.15 295.2 3 5 51.70 35.40 0.00 4.00 299.2 3 6 56.40 33.80 0.00 5.89 305.1 3 7 54.00 32.90 0.00 4.67 309.8 3 8 55.30 39.20 0.01 6.51 316.3 3 9 52.50 37.30 0.01 4.70 321.0 3 10 61.30 35.50 0.00 8.50 329.5 3 11 67.60 37.90 0.00 12.18 341.7 3 12 71.50 43.00 0.00 16.25 357.9 3 13 62.70 46.80 0.09 13.75 371.7 3 14 53.00 37.10 0.04 4.89 376.5 3 15 52.90 32.30 0.33 4.12 380.7 3 16 51.90 38.60 0.01 4.69 385.4 3 17 49.60 39.50 0.09 3.80 389.2 3 18 53.50 38.30 0.00 5.39 394.5 3 19 57.60 34.40 0.00 6.54 401.1 3 20 60.80 31.30 0.00 7.50 408.6 3 21 53.80 37.60 0.00 5.38 414.0 3 22 47.90 38.20 0.09 2.71 416.7 3 23 43.10 35.10 0.09 0.47 417.1 3 24 43.60 34.50 0.26 0.61 417.7 3 25 52.10 38.40 0.05 4.74 422.5 3 26 49.00 36.50 0.03 2.94 425.4 3 27 55.70 45.30 0.04 9.50 434.9 3 28 58.10 42.30 0.00 9.20 444.1 3 29 59.80 34.90 0.00 7.67 451.8 3 30 58.90 40.30 0.00 8.66 460.5 3 31 61.40 44.60 0.00 12.00 472.5 4 1 47.60 37.40 0.14 2.44 474.9 4 2 52.20 35.70 0.01 4.27 479.2 4 3 52.20 32.80 0.00 3.87 483.0 4 4 62.00 45.50 0.01 12.75 495.8 4 5 52.80 47.40 0.34 9.10 504.9 4 6 68.10 52.50 0.06 19.30 524.2 4 7 59.70 46.70 0.48 12.20 536.4 4 8 52.60 45.60 0.19 8.10 544.5 4 9 68.60 40.90 0.00 13.75 558.2 4 10 59.40 49.60 0.09 13.50 571.7 4 11 57.00 42.80 0.14 8.90 580.6 4 12 50.50 39.80 0.00 4.32 585.0 4 13 55.90 45.40 0.00 9.65 594.6 4 14 57.90 47.90 0.03 11.90 606.5 4 15 48.60 42.90 0.21 4.75 611.3 4 16 48.50 40.40 0.00 3.52 614.8 4 17 52.70 42.60 0.00 6.65 621.4 4 18 60.60 42.50 0.00 10.55 632.0 4 19 66.60 36.40 0.00 11.27 643.3 4 20 65.10 36.60 0.00 10.60 653.9 4 21 61.60 46.70 0.00 13.15 667.0 4 22 64.70 37.10 0.00 10.53 677.5 4 23 75.30 45.80 0.00 19.55 697.1 4 24 81.80 59.50 0.00 29.65 726.7 4 25 85.00 47.60 0.00 25.30 752.0 4 26 77.30 52.10 0.00 23.70 775.7 4 27 54.90 48.10 0.07 10.50 786.2 4 28 62.40 44.90 0.13 12.65 798.9 4 29 58.90 46.90 0.03 11.90 810.8 4 30 55.50 45.70 0.01 9.60 820.4 5 1 59.50 47.70 0.00 12.60 833.0 5 2 74.20 43.50 0.00 17.85 850.8 peak pheromone trap catch 5 3 76.10 45.20 0.00 19.65 870.5 5 4 64.60 50.50 0.00 16.55 887.0 5 5 74.10 50.40 0.00 21.25 908.3 5 6 69.80 52.60 0.00 20.20 928.5 5 7 75.50 50.60 0.00 22.05 950.5 peak female adult emergence 5 8 75.60 48.60 0.08 21.10 971.6 5 9 65.80 52.20 0.05 18.00 989.6 5 10 60.80 48.80 0.27 13.80 1003.4 peak egg laying 5 11 65.20 46.10 0.00 14.65 1018.1 5 12 79.80 48.70 0.00 23.25 1041.3 5 13 88.60 48.90 0.00 27.75 1069.1 5 14 85.40 52.00 0.00 27.70 1096.8 5 15 70.90 50.80 0.00 19.85 1116.6 5 16 65.00 54.60 0.00 18.80 1135.4 5 17 65.70 53.40 0.00 18.55 1154.0 5 18 69.60 51.90 0.00 19.75 1173.7 5 19 67.60 50.30 0.00 17.95 1191.7
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1192QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 10 days ahead 2017 ok
 16 days behind 2016 ok
 10 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for ARAO data
  5 20  69.50 50.70  0.00  19.10   1210.8  0.00_10.10%_precip.    
  5 21  75.90 46.30  0.00  20.10   1230.9  0.00_11.33%_precip.    
  5 22  82.20 47.10  0.00  23.65   1254.5  0.00_14.77%_precip.    
  5 23  85.40 54.50  0.00  28.95   1283.5  0.00_19.95%_precip.   peak egg hatch
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg ARAO 2006-2015
  5 24  63.30 47.60  0.17  14.45   1297.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  66.70 47.90  0.12  16.30   1314.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  66.70 48.30  0.10  16.50   1330.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.50 49.30  0.13  16.40   1347.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  65.60 48.70  0.18  16.15   1363.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  67.00 49.40  0.08  17.20   1380.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  71.00 49.30  0.03  19.15   1399.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  74.70 50.30  0.03  21.50   1421.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  74.30 51.80  0.10  22.05   1443.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.40 51.90  0.13  20.15   1463.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.60 51.30  0.12  19.95   1483.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  72.10 50.80  0.12  20.45   1503.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  72.90 51.60  0.13  21.25   1525.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  72.00 50.80  0.05  20.40   1545.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.00 51.00  0.08  20.00   1565.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  70.20 51.50  0.04  19.85   1585.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  71.90 50.60  0.05  20.25   1605.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.50 49.80  0.05  18.65   1624.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  68.30 49.90  0.02  18.10   1642.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  70.80 50.50  0.01  19.65   1661.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  70.90 50.90  0.05  19.90   1681.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  69.60 51.10  0.05  19.35   1701.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  69.60 49.80  0.00  18.70   1719.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.10 50.00  0.04  20.05   1739.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  71.10 50.20  0.03  19.65   1759.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  70.30 51.00  0.00  19.65   1779.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  70.30 51.10  0.03  19.70   1798.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  71.90 50.70  0.05  20.30   1819.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  73.40 51.30  0.03  21.35   1840.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.30 51.80  0.00  22.55   1863.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  73.60 51.00  0.02  21.30   1884.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  74.80 51.80  0.06  22.30   1906.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  76.50 52.30  0.02  23.40   1930.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  76.90 54.50  0.03  24.70   1954.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  79.10 54.90  0.05  26.00   1980.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  81.40 55.10  0.05  27.25   2008.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.60 56.70  0.03  27.15   2035.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  78.20 55.30  0.01  25.75   2060.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  81.20 54.00  0.03  26.60   2087.5  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  2  83.60 54.70  0.03  28.15   2115.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  83.60 55.60  0.02  28.60   2144.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  81.50 54.80  0.00  27.15   2171.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.30 54.20  0.00  26.75   2198.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  79.80 54.70  0.00  26.25   2224.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  81.00 54.10  0.00  26.55   2251.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  83.20 55.20  0.00  28.20   2279.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  85.60 55.80  0.00  29.70   2308.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  85.90 56.20  0.00  30.05   2338.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  83.10 56.10  0.00  28.60   2367.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.10 55.80  0.01  27.45   2395.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.30 56.60  0.04  26.95   2421.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  79.30 55.20  0.01  26.25   2448.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  84.00 56.00  0.00  29.00   2477.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  84.40 56.50  0.00  29.45   2506.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  82.50 55.80  0.02  28.15   2534.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  79.80 55.30  0.09  26.55   2561.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  79.70 55.30  0.01  26.50   2587.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  81.40 55.60  0.03  27.50   2615.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  80.90 55.10  0.01  27.00   2642.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.20 55.70  0.00  27.95   2670.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  78.70 57.00  0.03  26.85   2697.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  80.90 55.60  0.04  27.25   2724.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  84.70 55.10  0.00  28.90   2753.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  83.50 55.40  0.01  28.45   2781.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  83.90 55.50  0.00  28.70   2810.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  83.30 55.70  0.00  28.50   2838.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  83.90 56.60  0.00  29.25   2868.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  83.80 57.50  0.00  29.65   2897.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  83.40 55.70  0.00  28.55   2926.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  84.30 54.50  0.00  28.40   2954.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  83.20 56.00  0.01  28.60   2983.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.10 56.10  0.00  28.10   3011.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.00 55.60  0.00  28.80   3040.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.30 55.40  0.00  29.85   3070.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.50 56.00  0.00  29.25   3099.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  82.30 56.70  0.00  28.50   3127.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.40 56.00  0.00  27.20   3155.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  77.80 56.00  0.00  25.90   3181.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  78.50 56.20  0.00  26.35   3207.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  80.80 55.40  0.00  27.10   3234.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  82.90 56.20  0.04  28.55   3263.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.80 55.70  0.01  27.75   3290.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  83.60 56.00  0.00  28.80   3319.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.20 57.40  0.00  30.30   3349.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.10 58.10  0.00  30.10   3379.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 57.10  0.00  30.45   3410.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 57.10  0.00  30.65   3441.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  83.50 56.70  0.04  29.10   3470.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.70 56.60  0.05  28.65   3498.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.20 54.60  0.05  26.40   3525.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.20 53.90  0.01  25.55   3550.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  79.40 53.90  0.00  25.65   3576.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  80.20 53.70  0.01  25.95   3602.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  81.70 54.30  0.04  27.00   3629.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.10 54.20  0.01  27.15   3656.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  82.40 54.30  0.00  27.35   3683.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  83.50 55.00  0.00  28.25   3712.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.50 55.60  0.01  27.55   3739.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  76.50 55.60  0.07  25.05   3764.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.60 54.40  0.07  24.00   3788.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  75.80 52.30  0.01  23.05   3811.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.00 52.60  0.00  24.80   3836.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.80 51.80  0.00  25.30   3861.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  80.60 52.40  0.01  25.50   3887.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  78.90 52.80  0.03  24.85   3912.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  78.50 53.30  0.17  24.90   3937.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  79.70 52.90  0.13  25.30   3962.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.50 52.90  0.03  25.70   3988.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.90 53.30  0.01  25.60   4013.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  79.80 53.30  0.00  25.55   4039.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.30 52.90  0.00  27.10   4066.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.40 52.90  0.00  28.65   4095.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  82.60 52.80  0.00  26.70   4121.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  76.40 53.10  0.00  23.75   4145.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  75.70 53.00  0.02  23.35   4168.8  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 ARAO AURORA OR
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1192 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 10 days ahead 2017 ok
 16 days behind 2016 ok
 10 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-2-18 851peak pheromone trap catch
 5-7-18 951peak female adult emergence
 5-10-18 1003peak egg laying
 5-23-18 1283peak egg hatch
 7-1-18 2088peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)