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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.80 32.90 0.33 0.10 0.1 * START *
1 2 34.90 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 3 36.50 28.70 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 4 34.50 26.70 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 5 36.80 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 6 37.00 15.60 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 7 30.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 8 39.30 28.90 0.77 0.00 0.1
1 9 40.70 33.90 0.58 0.00 0.1
1 10 41.00 33.50 0.62 0.00 0.1
1 11 32.90 28.80 0.39 0.00 0.1
1 12 33.50 22.40 0.01 0.00 0.1
1 13 31.60 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 14 33.60 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 15 35.30 19.80 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 16 36.20 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 17 37.10 28.90 0.67 0.00 0.1
1 18 53.70 36.60 0.99 5.12 5.2
1 19 52.00 38.40 0.01 4.69 9.9
1 20 46.70 38.50 0.39 2.21 12.1
1 21 49.60 38.10 0.23 3.48 15.6
1 22 52.40 39.80 0.12 5.26 20.9
1 23 52.40 33.00 0.00 3.99 24.9
1 24 46.60 26.40 0.00 1.29 26.1
1 25 47.70 36.70 0.00 2.39 28.5
1 26 49.60 36.60 0.02 3.23 31.8
1 27 48.90 30.70 0.00 2.32 34.1
1 28 47.70 30.50 0.00 1.85 35.9
1 29 42.40 31.60 0.00 0.22 36.2
1 30 46.50 41.20 0.00 2.85 39.0
1 31 45.80 37.00 0.00 1.61 40.6
2 1 42.50 37.30 0.00 0.35 41.0
2 2 43.50 34.90 0.00 0.59 41.6
2 3 39.60 31.20 0.93 0.00 41.6
2 4 53.20 45.50 0.53 8.35 49.9
2 5 47.50 35.80 2.34 2.20 52.1
2 6 44.10 33.40 0.14 0.73 52.8
2 7 39.90 31.10 0.08 0.00 52.8
2 8 42.50 38.30 1.17 0.40 53.2
2 9 60.40 42.30 0.51 10.35 63.6
2 10 50.60 40.30 0.07 4.53 68.1
2 11 51.20 36.70 0.00 3.98 72.1
2 12 52.50 31.50 0.00 3.86 75.9
2 13 58.50 30.80 0.00 6.39 82.3
2 14 54.00 30.90 0.03 4.43 86.8
2 15 55.80 43.40 0.96 8.60 95.4
2 16 54.30 46.40 0.98 9.35 104.7
2 17 56.10 40.80 0.00 7.46 112.2
2 18 52.20 42.80 0.04 6.50 118.7
2 19 50.50 41.00 0.15 4.75 123.4
2 20 51.60 42.60 0.96 6.10 129.5
2 21 45.90 39.00 1.18 1.92 131.4
2 22 46.40 35.00 0.05 1.67 133.1
2 23 45.00 32.80 0.03 1.01 134.1
2 24 41.90 30.80 0.02 0.11 134.2
2 25 48.60 32.20 0.00 2.32 136.5
2 26 42.60 35.90 0.49 0.34 136.9
2 27 43.30 35.90 0.11 0.56 137.4
2 28 49.50 33.70 0.03 2.82 140.3
3 1 51.80 40.60 0.01 5.23 145.5
3 2 49.80 36.00 0.02 3.23 148.7
3 3 51.30 42.90 0.40 6.10 154.8
3 4 48.30 34.80 0.11 2.43 157.3
3 5 44.50 34.80 0.12 0.93 158.2
3 6 44.90 33.70 0.35 1.02 159.2
3 7 49.10 40.90 0.70 4.00 163.2
3 8 48.80 43.50 0.30 5.15 168.4
3 9 58.30 44.20 0.45 10.25 178.6
3 10 60.00 47.60 0.00 12.80 191.4
3 11 56.10 42.40 0.60 8.25 199.7
3 12 63.80 44.00 0.01 12.90 212.6
3 13 56.20 44.00 0.63 9.10 221.7 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 14 59.90 44.00 0.73 10.95 232.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 15 57.20 46.80 0.00 11.00 243.6
3 16 54.70 35.40 0.00 5.37 249.0
3 17 48.20 39.10 0.30 3.03 252.0
3 18 56.60 41.00 0.49 7.80 259.8
3 19 56.40 34.40 0.01 5.99 265.8
3 20 56.00 39.50 0.14 6.94 272.7
3 21 63.80 45.30 0.20 13.55 286.3
3 22 53.30 43.20 0.08 7.25 293.5
3 23 57.10 36.50 0.24 6.71 300.2
3 24 55.20 46.00 0.86 9.60 309.8
3 25 52.90 41.40 0.02 6.15 316.0
3 26 53.00 43.90 0.53 7.45 323.4
3 27 53.10 44.60 0.13 7.85 331.3
3 28 59.80 46.30 0.05 12.05 343.3
3 29 55.20 46.40 0.58 9.80 353.1
3 30 57.70 42.30 0.00 9.00 362.1
3 31 59.00 39.80 0.01 8.53 370.7
4 1 58.30 44.00 0.01 10.15 380.8
4 2 56.20 37.50 0.00 6.51 387.3
4 3 56.50 33.60 0.00 5.90 393.2
4 4 56.40 38.00 0.00 6.72 400.0 Hx Hn
4 5 59.70 45.00 0.00 11.35 411.3
4 6 63.60 46.70 0.33 14.15 425.5
4 7 57.20 45.20 0.11 10.20 435.7
4 8 50.40 40.50 0.22 4.50 440.2
4 9 57.10 36.10 0.10 6.63 446.8
4 10 54.50 41.30 0.07 6.90 453.7
4 11 59.10 39.20 0.11 8.38 462.1
4 12 61.20 45.50 0.42 12.35 474.4
4 13 51.20 43.80 0.25 6.50 480.9
4 14 54.40 42.10 0.10 7.25 488.2
4 15 60.20 34.50 0.00 7.78 495.9
4 16 66.50 45.20 0.04 14.85 510.8
4 17 59.80 46.30 0.37 12.05 522.8
4 18 63.70 48.60 0.07 15.15 538.0
4 19 56.50 45.30 0.27 9.90 547.9
4 20 58.80 44.00 0.09 10.40 558.3
4 21 71.70 38.90 0.00 14.53 572.8
4 22 62.80 48.80 0.12 14.80 587.6
4 23 55.20 46.30 0.48 9.75 597.4
4 24 58.90 44.90 0.33 10.90 608.3
4 25 54.80 46.50 0.04 9.65 617.9
4 26 58.90 43.90 0.12 10.40 628.3
4 27 56.50 41.10 0.11 7.80 636.1
4 28 60.30 35.70 0.00 8.07 644.2
4 29 63.90 37.40 0.00 10.22 654.4
4 30 59.80 47.00 0.00 12.40 666.8
5 1 54.80 39.10 0.00 6.23 673.0
5 2 66.10 51.00 0.05 17.55 690.6
5 3 82.60 55.60 0.01 28.10 718.7
5 4 82.40 56.70 0.00 28.55 747.2
5 5 60.20 45.20 0.12 11.70 758.9
5 6 60.30 39.50 0.00 9.07 768.0
5 7 66.10 39.80 0.00 12.06 780.1
5 8 73.00 40.10 0.00 15.61 795.7
5 9 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 814.3
5 10 73.90 47.00 0.00 19.45 833.8
5 11 56.80 46.60 0.37 10.70 844.5
5 12 55.70 42.90 0.07 8.30 852.8 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 13 54.50 44.80 0.35 8.65 861.4
5 14 60.20 47.60 0.02 12.90 874.3
5 15 59.70 41.40 0.22 9.55 883.9
5 16 57.50 47.40 0.26 11.45 895.3
5 17 58.40 46.60 0.01 11.50 906.8
5 18 69.10 44.80 0.00 15.95 922.8
5 19 76.60 48.90 0.00 21.75 944.5
5 20 71.10 52.70 0.00 20.90 965.4 Peak female adult emergence
5 21 84.40 54.30 0.00 28.35 993.8
5 22 92.80 62.30 0.00 36.55 1030.3 Peak egg laying
5 23 87.10 53.70 0.00 29.40 1059.7
5 24 66.10 45.90 0.00 15.00 1074.7
5 25 74.40 46.60 0.00 19.50 1094.2
5 26 84.60 52.10 0.00 27.35 1121.6
5 27 89.60 52.10 0.00 29.85 1151.4
5 28 81.00 53.20 0.00 26.10 1177.5
5 29 72.10 51.70 0.00 20.90 1198.4
5 30 61.40 54.00 0.02 16.70 1215.1
5 31 74.40 52.20 0.01 22.30 1237.4
6 1 70.50 57.50 0.02 23.00 1260.4
6 2 76.90 55.50 0.00 25.20 1285.6 Peak egg hatch
6 3 65.10 53.60 0.04 18.35 1304.0
6 4 68.30 52.70 0.00 19.50 1323.5
6 5 78.80 45.80 0.00 21.30 1344.8
6 6 84.20 50.80 0.00 26.50 1371.3
6 7 76.30 52.10 0.04 23.20 1394.5
6 8 63.50 52.50 0.32 17.00 1411.5
6 9 60.10 50.80 0.18 14.45 1425.9
6 10 61.10 49.50 0.26 14.30 1440.2
6 11 68.60 51.40 0.01 19.00 1459.2
6 12 60.40 53.50 0.00 15.95 1475.2
6 13 64.20 51.80 0.00 17.00 1492.2
6 14 67.10 48.50 0.00 16.80 1509.0
6 15 64.60 54.90 0.33 18.75 1527.7
6 16 64.20 59.20 0.00 20.70 1548.4
6 17 72.00 56.50 0.00 23.25 1571.7
6 18 80.40 60.50 0.00 29.45 1601.1
6 19 87.70 59.60 0.00 32.65 1633.8
6 20 80.70 56.20 0.00 27.45 1661.2
6 21 75.90 46.80 0.00 20.35 1681.6
6 22 84.40 48.60 0.00 25.50 1707.1
6 23 91.70 58.60 0.00 34.15 1741.2
6 24 97.70 67.00 0.00 41.35 1782.6
6 25 100.30 65.10 0.00 41.70 1824.3
6 26 78.20 58.40 0.00 27.30 1851.6
6 27 76.10 57.50 0.00 25.80 1877.4
6 28 73.20 52.20 0.00 21.70 1899.1
6 29 83.10 52.70 0.00 26.90 1926.0
6 30 84.90 55.80 0.00 29.35 1955.3
7 1 76.40 56.90 0.00 25.65 1981.0
7 2 84.10 53.50 0.00 27.80 2008.8
7 3 77.60 58.40 0.00 27.00 2035.8
7 4 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 2063.1
7 5 91.10 57.30 0.00 33.20 2096.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 6 88.00 52.80 0.00 29.40 2125.7
7 7 71.30 54.20 0.00 21.75 2147.5
7 8 87.90 51.40 0.00 28.65 2176.1
7 9 86.10 53.20 0.00 28.65 2204.8
7 10 79.90 58.70 0.00 28.30 2233.1
7 11 79.90 49.00 0.00 23.45 2256.5
7 12 84.50 54.70 0.00 28.60 2285.1
7 13 77.00 56.20 0.00 25.60 2310.7
7 14 86.70 54.60 0.00 29.65 2340.4
7 15 81.70 56.90 0.00 28.30 2368.7
7 16 75.00 57.80 0.00 25.40 2394.1
7 17 80.90 48.60 0.01 23.75 2417.8
7 18 86.30 52.70 0.00 28.50 2446.3
7 19 80.90 50.50 0.00 24.70 2471.0
7 20 75.50 54.30 0.00 23.90 2494.9
7 21 83.60 52.40 0.00 27.00 2521.9
7 22 91.50 58.70 0.00 34.10 2556.0
7 23 85.10 63.70 0.00 33.40 2589.4
7 24 89.60 53.00 0.00 30.30 2619.7
7 25 90.20 56.00 0.00 32.10 2651.8
7 26 89.60 57.80 0.00 32.70 2684.5
7 27 78.70 60.10 0.00 28.40 2712.9
7 28 84.10 54.00 0.00 28.05 2741.0
7 29 88.00 54.50 0.00 30.25 2771.2
7 30 89.90 55.60 0.00 31.75 2803.0
7 31 92.10 55.80 0.00 32.95 2835.9
8 1 98.00 56.20 0.00 36.10 2872.0
8 2 103.60 62.50 0.00 42.05 2914.1
8 3 103.20 66.30 0.00 43.75 2957.8
8 4 95.60 62.20 0.00 37.90 2995.7
8 5 87.60 53.70 0.00 29.65 3025.4
8 6 87.60 55.80 0.00 30.70 3056.1
8 7 92.40 64.50 0.00 37.45 3093.5
8 8 94.00 60.30 0.00 36.15 3129.7
8 9 95.30 60.80 0.00 37.05 3166.7
8 10 90.10 59.90 0.00 34.00 3200.7
8 11 87.00 62.20 0.00 33.60 3234.3
8 12 78.20 59.90 0.00 28.05 3262.4
8 13 73.90 59.90 0.09 25.90 3288.3
8 14 72.30 48.90 0.00 19.60 3307.9
8 15 83.10 49.30 0.00 25.20 3333.1
8 16 85.50 52.40 0.00 27.95 3361.0
8 17 81.20 61.30 0.00 30.25 3391.3
8 18 84.50 55.60 0.00 29.05 3420.3
8 19 80.40 57.60 0.00 28.00 3448.3
8 20 81.50 50.40 0.00 24.95 3473.3
8 21 90.60 55.90 0.00 32.25 3505.5
8 22 86.70 57.90 0.00 31.30 3536.8
8 23 79.50 59.60 0.00 28.55 3565.4
8 24 75.50 60.20 0.00 26.85 3592.2
8 25 79.60 48.10 0.00 22.85 3615.1
8 26 91.50 52.70 0.00 31.10 3646.2
8 27 93.00 54.30 0.00 32.65 3678.8
8 28 97.70 57.30 0.00 36.50 3715.3
8 29 86.70 58.60 0.00 31.65 3747.0
8 30 80.40 52.50 0.00 25.45 3772.4
8 31 82.80 58.40 0.00 29.60 3802.0
9 1 92.60 57.00 0.00 33.80 3835.8
9 2 98.10 55.10 0.00 35.60 3871.4
9 3 95.40 58.70 0.00 36.05 3907.5
9 4 90.60 60.50 0.00 34.55 3942.0
9 5 89.60 62.90 0.00 35.25 3977.3
9 6 81.50 62.00 0.00 30.75 4008.0
9 7 83.60 65.20 0.00 33.40 4041.4
9 8 76.20 64.20 0.00 29.20 4070.6
9 9 79.50 62.80 0.02 30.15 4100.8
9 10 78.10 58.00 0.01 27.05 4127.8
9 11 92.70 50.50 0.00 30.60 4158.4
9 12 88.30 55.10 0.00 30.70 4189.1
9 13 75.40 48.60 0.00 21.00 4210.1
9 14 74.90 52.00 0.00 22.45 4232.6
9 15 78.50 45.20 0.00 20.85 4253.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-12-17 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-20-17 | 965 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-22-17 | 1030 | Peak egg laying |
6-2-17 | 1286 | Peak egg hatch |
7-5-17 | 2096 | Peak in density large larvae |