Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.80 32.90 0.33 0.10 0.1 * START * 1 2 34.90 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 3 36.50 28.70 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 4 34.50 26.70 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 5 36.80 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 6 37.00 15.60 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 7 30.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 8 39.30 28.90 0.77 0.00 0.1 1 9 40.70 33.90 0.58 0.00 0.1 1 10 41.00 33.50 0.62 0.00 0.1 1 11 32.90 28.80 0.39 0.00 0.1 1 12 33.50 22.40 0.01 0.00 0.1 1 13 31.60 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 14 33.60 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 15 35.30 19.80 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 16 36.20 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 17 37.10 28.90 0.67 0.00 0.1 1 18 53.70 36.60 0.99 5.12 5.2 1 19 52.00 38.40 0.01 4.69 9.9 1 20 46.70 38.50 0.39 2.21 12.1 1 21 49.60 38.10 0.23 3.48 15.6 1 22 52.40 39.80 0.12 5.26 20.9 1 23 52.40 33.00 0.00 3.99 24.9 1 24 46.60 26.40 0.00 1.29 26.1 1 25 47.70 36.70 0.00 2.39 28.5 1 26 49.60 36.60 0.02 3.23 31.8 1 27 48.90 30.70 0.00 2.32 34.1 1 28 47.70 30.50 0.00 1.85 35.9 1 29 42.40 31.60 0.00 0.22 36.2 1 30 46.50 41.20 0.00 2.85 39.0 1 31 45.80 37.00 0.00 1.61 40.6 2 1 42.50 37.30 0.00 0.35 41.0 2 2 43.50 34.90 0.00 0.59 41.6 2 3 39.60 31.20 0.93 0.00 41.6 2 4 53.20 45.50 0.53 8.35 49.9 2 5 47.50 35.80 2.34 2.20 52.1 2 6 44.10 33.40 0.14 0.73 52.8 2 7 39.90 31.10 0.08 0.00 52.8 2 8 42.50 38.30 1.17 0.40 53.2 2 9 60.40 42.30 0.51 10.35 63.6 2 10 50.60 40.30 0.07 4.53 68.1 2 11 51.20 36.70 0.00 3.98 72.1 2 12 52.50 31.50 0.00 3.86 75.9 2 13 58.50 30.80 0.00 6.39 82.3 2 14 54.00 30.90 0.03 4.43 86.8 2 15 55.80 43.40 0.96 8.60 95.4 2 16 54.30 46.40 0.98 9.35 104.7 2 17 56.10 40.80 0.00 7.46 112.2 2 18 52.20 42.80 0.04 6.50 118.7 2 19 50.50 41.00 0.15 4.75 123.4 2 20 51.60 42.60 0.96 6.10 129.5 2 21 45.90 39.00 1.18 1.92 131.4 2 22 46.40 35.00 0.05 1.67 133.1 2 23 45.00 32.80 0.03 1.01 134.1 2 24 41.90 30.80 0.02 0.11 134.2 2 25 48.60 32.20 0.00 2.32 136.5 2 26 42.60 35.90 0.49 0.34 136.9 2 27 43.30 35.90 0.11 0.56 137.4 2 28 49.50 33.70 0.03 2.82 140.3 3 1 51.80 40.60 0.01 5.23 145.5 3 2 49.80 36.00 0.02 3.23 148.7 3 3 51.30 42.90 0.40 6.10 154.8 3 4 48.30 34.80 0.11 2.43 157.3 3 5 44.50 34.80 0.12 0.93 158.2 3 6 44.90 33.70 0.35 1.02 159.2 3 7 49.10 40.90 0.70 4.00 163.2 3 8 48.80 43.50 0.30 5.15 168.4 3 9 58.30 44.20 0.45 10.25 178.6 3 10 60.00 47.60 0.00 12.80 191.4 3 11 56.10 42.40 0.60 8.25 199.7 3 12 63.80 44.00 0.01 12.90 212.6 3 13 56.20 44.00 0.63 9.10 221.7 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 14 59.90 44.00 0.73 10.95 232.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 15 57.20 46.80 0.00 11.00 243.6 3 16 54.70 35.40 0.00 5.37 249.0 3 17 48.20 39.10 0.30 3.03 252.0 3 18 56.60 41.00 0.49 7.80 259.8 3 19 56.40 34.40 0.01 5.99 265.8 3 20 56.00 39.50 0.14 6.94 272.7 3 21 63.80 45.30 0.20 13.55 286.3 3 22 53.30 43.20 0.08 7.25 293.5 3 23 57.10 36.50 0.24 6.71 300.2 3 24 55.20 46.00 0.86 9.60 309.8 3 25 52.90 41.40 0.02 6.15 316.0 3 26 53.00 43.90 0.53 7.45 323.4 3 27 53.10 44.60 0.13 7.85 331.3 3 28 59.80 46.30 0.05 12.05 343.3 3 29 55.20 46.40 0.58 9.80 353.1 3 30 57.70 42.30 0.00 9.00 362.1 3 31 59.00 39.80 0.01 8.53 370.7 4 1 58.30 44.00 0.01 10.15 380.8 4 2 56.20 37.50 0.00 6.51 387.3 4 3 56.50 33.60 0.00 5.90 393.2 4 4 59.10 40.60 0.00 8.87 402.1 Hx Hn 4 5 59.70 45.00 0.00 11.35 413.5 4 6 63.60 46.70 0.33 14.15 427.6 4 7 57.20 45.20 0.11 10.20 437.8 4 8 50.40 40.50 0.22 4.50 442.3 4 9 57.10 36.10 0.10 6.63 448.9 4 10 54.50 41.30 0.07 6.90 455.8 4 11 59.10 39.20 0.11 8.38 464.2 4 12 61.20 45.50 0.42 12.35 476.6 4 13 51.20 43.80 0.25 6.50 483.1 4 14 54.40 42.10 0.10 7.25 490.3 4 15 60.20 34.50 0.00 7.78 498.1 4 16 66.50 45.20 0.04 14.85 512.9 4 17 59.80 46.30 0.37 12.05 525.0 4 18 63.70 48.60 0.07 15.15 540.1 4 19 56.50 45.30 0.27 9.90 550.0 4 20 58.80 44.00 0.09 10.40 560.4 4 21 71.70 38.90 0.00 14.53 575.0 4 22 62.80 48.80 0.12 14.80 589.8 4 23 55.20 46.30 0.48 9.75 599.5 4 24 58.90 44.90 0.33 10.90 610.4 4 25 54.80 46.50 0.04 9.65 620.1 4 26 58.90 43.90 0.12 10.40 630.5 4 27 56.50 41.10 0.11 7.80 638.3 4 28 60.30 35.70 0.00 8.07 646.3 4 29 63.90 37.40 0.00 10.22 656.6 4 30 59.80 47.00 0.00 12.40 669.0 5 1 54.80 39.10 0.00 6.23 675.2 5 2 66.10 51.00 0.05 17.55 692.7 5 3 82.60 55.60 0.01 28.10 720.8 5 4 82.40 56.70 0.00 28.55 749.4 5 5 60.20 45.20 0.12 11.70 761.1 5 6 60.30 39.50 0.00 9.07 770.2 5 7 66.10 39.80 0.00 12.06 782.2 5 8 73.00 40.10 0.00 15.61 797.8 5 9 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 816.5 5 10 73.90 47.00 0.00 19.45 835.9 5 11 56.80 46.60 0.37 10.70 846.6 5 12 55.70 42.90 0.07 8.30 854.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 13 54.50 44.80 0.35 8.65 863.6 5 14 60.20 47.60 0.02 12.90 876.5 5 15 59.70 41.40 0.22 9.55 886.0 5 16 57.50 47.40 0.26 11.45 897.5 5 17 58.40 46.60 0.01 11.50 909.0 5 18 69.10 44.80 0.00 15.95 924.9 5 19 76.60 48.90 0.00 21.75 946.7 5 20 71.10 52.70 0.00 20.90 967.6 peak female adult emergence 5 21 84.40 54.30 0.00 28.35 995.9 5 22 92.80 62.30 0.00 36.55 1032.5 peak egg laying 5 23 87.10 53.70 0.00 29.40 1061.9 5 24 66.10 45.90 0.00 15.00 1076.9 5 25 74.40 46.60 0.00 19.50 1096.4 5 26 84.60 52.10 0.00 27.35 1123.7 5 27 89.60 52.10 0.00 29.85 1153.6 5 28 81.00 53.20 0.00 26.10 1179.7 5 29 72.10 51.70 0.00 20.90 1200.6 5 30 61.40 54.00 0.02 16.70 1217.3 5 31 74.40 52.20 0.01 22.30 1239.6 6 1 70.50 57.50 0.02 23.00 1262.6 6 2 76.90 55.50 0.00 25.20 1287.8 peak egg hatch 6 3 65.10 53.60 0.04 18.35 1306.1 6 4 68.30 52.70 0.00 19.50 1325.6 6 5 78.80 45.80 0.00 21.30 1346.9 6 6 84.20 50.80 0.00 26.50 1373.4 6 7 76.30 52.10 0.04 23.20 1396.6 6 8 63.50 52.50 0.32 17.00 1413.6 6 9 60.10 50.80 0.18 14.45 1428.1 6 10 61.10 49.50 0.26 14.30 1442.4 6 11 68.60 51.40 0.01 19.00 1461.4 6 12 60.40 53.50 0.00 15.95 1477.3 6 13 64.20 51.80 0.00 17.00 1494.3 6 14 67.10 48.50 0.00 16.80 1511.1 6 15 64.60 54.90 0.33 18.75 1529.9 6 16 64.20 59.20 0.00 20.70 1550.6 6 17 72.00 56.50 0.00 23.25 1573.8 6 18 80.40 60.50 0.00 29.45 1603.3 6 19 87.70 59.60 0.00 32.65 1635.9 6 20 80.70 56.20 0.00 27.45 1663.4 6 21 75.90 46.80 0.00 20.35 1683.7 6 22 84.40 48.60 0.00 25.50 1709.2 6 23 91.70 58.60 0.00 34.15 1743.4 6 24 97.70 67.00 0.00 41.35 1784.7 6 25 100.30 65.10 0.00 41.70 1826.4 6 26 78.20 58.40 0.00 27.30 1853.7 6 27 76.10 57.50 0.00 25.80 1879.5 6 28 73.20 52.20 0.00 21.70 1901.2 6 29 83.10 52.70 0.00 26.90 1928.1 6 30 84.90 55.80 0.00 29.35 1957.5 7 1 76.40 56.90 0.00 25.65 1983.1 7 2 84.10 53.50 0.00 27.80 2010.9 7 3 77.60 58.40 0.00 27.00 2037.9 7 4 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 2065.3 7 5 91.10 57.30 0.00 33.20 2098.5 peak in density large larvae 7 6 88.00 52.80 0.00 29.40 2127.9 7 7 71.30 54.20 0.00 21.75 2149.6 7 8 87.90 51.40 0.00 28.65 2178.3 7 9 86.10 53.20 0.00 28.65 2206.9 7 10 79.90 58.70 0.00 28.30 2235.2 7 11 79.90 49.00 0.00 23.45 2258.7 7 12 84.50 54.70 0.00 28.60 2287.3 7 13 77.00 56.20 0.00 25.60 2312.9 7 14 86.70 54.60 0.00 29.65 2342.5 7 15 81.70 56.90 0.00 28.30 2370.8 7 16 75.00 57.80 0.00 25.40 2396.2 7 17 80.90 48.60 0.01 23.75 2420.0 7 18 86.30 52.70 0.00 28.50 2448.5 7 19 80.90 50.50 0.00 24.70 2473.2 7 20 75.50 54.30 0.00 23.90 2497.1 7 21 83.60 52.40 0.00 27.00 2524.1 7 22 91.50 58.70 0.00 34.10 2558.2 7 23 85.10 63.70 0.00 33.40 2591.6 7 24 89.60 53.00 0.00 30.30 2621.9 7 25 90.20 56.00 0.00 32.10 2654.0 7 26 89.60 57.80 0.00 32.70 2686.7 7 27 78.70 60.10 0.00 28.40 2715.1 7 28 84.10 54.00 0.00 28.05 2743.1 7 29 88.00 54.50 0.00 30.25 2773.4 7 30 89.90 55.60 0.00 31.75 2805.1 7 31 92.10 55.80 0.00 32.95 2838.1 8 1 98.00 56.20 0.00 36.10 2874.2 8 2 103.60 62.50 0.00 42.05 2916.2 8 3 103.20 66.30 0.00 43.75 2960.0 8 4 95.60 62.20 0.00 37.90 2997.9 8 5 87.60 53.70 0.00 29.65 3027.5 8 6 87.60 55.80 0.00 30.70 3058.2 8 7 92.40 64.50 0.00 37.45 3095.7 8 8 94.00 60.30 0.00 36.15 3131.8 8 9 95.30 60.80 0.00 37.05 3168.9 8 10 90.10 59.90 0.00 34.00 3202.9 8 11 87.00 62.20 0.00 33.60 3236.5 8 12 78.20 59.90 0.00 28.05 3264.5 8 13 73.90 59.90 0.09 25.90 3290.4 8 14 72.30 48.90 0.00 19.60 3310.0 8 15 83.10 49.30 0.00 25.20 3335.2 8 16 85.50 52.40 0.00 27.95 3363.2 8 17 81.20 61.30 0.00 30.25 3393.4 8 18 84.50 55.60 0.00 29.05 3422.5 8 19 80.40 57.60 0.00 28.00 3450.5 8 20 81.50 50.40 0.00 24.95 3475.4 8 21 90.60 55.90 0.00 32.25 3507.7 8 22 86.70 57.90 0.00 31.30 3539.0
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3539QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 12 days behind 2016 ok
 20 days behind 2015 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  8 23  83.00 58.00  0.00  29.50   3568.5  Partly_Cloudy_2%_precip    
  8 24  75.00 58.00  0.00  25.50   3594.0  Mostly_Cloudy_2%_precip    
  8 25  82.00 49.00  0.00  24.50   3618.5  Sunny_24%_precip    
  8 26  90.00 50.00  0.00  29.00   3647.5  Sunny_2%_precip    
  8 27  94.00 55.00  0.00  33.50   3681.0  Sunny_4%_precip    
  8 28  93.00 57.00  0.00  34.00   3715.0  Sunny_6%_precip    
  8 29  91.00 58.00  0.00  33.50   3748.5  Mostly_Sunny_9%_precip    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg ARAO 2006-2015
  8 30  76.50 55.60  0.07  25.05   3773.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.60 54.40  0.07  24.00   3797.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  75.80 52.30  0.01  23.05   3820.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.00 52.60  0.00  24.80   3845.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.80 51.80  0.00  25.30   3870.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  80.60 52.40  0.01  25.50   3896.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  78.90 52.80  0.03  24.85   3921.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  78.50 53.30  0.17  24.90   3945.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  79.70 52.90  0.13  25.30   3971.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.50 52.90  0.03  25.70   3996.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.90 53.30  0.01  25.60   4022.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  79.80 53.30  0.00  25.55   4048.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.30 52.90  0.00  27.10   4075.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.40 52.90  0.00  28.65   4103.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  82.60 52.80  0.00  26.70   4130.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  76.40 53.10  0.00  23.75   4154.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  75.70 53.00  0.02  23.35   4177.6  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 ARAO AURORA OR
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3539 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 12 days behind 2016 ok
 20 days behind 2015 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-12-17 855peak pheromone trap catch
 5-20-17 968peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1032peak egg laying
 6-2-17 1288peak egg hatch
 7-5-17 2098peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)