Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.80 32.90 0.33 0.10 0.1 * START * 1 2 34.90 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 3 36.50 28.70 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 4 34.50 26.70 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 5 36.80 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 6 37.00 15.60 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 7 30.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 8 39.30 28.90 0.77 0.00 0.1 1 9 40.70 33.90 0.58 0.00 0.1 1 10 41.00 33.50 0.62 0.00 0.1 1 11 32.90 28.80 0.39 0.00 0.1 1 12 33.50 22.40 0.01 0.00 0.1 1 13 31.60 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 14 33.60 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 15 35.30 19.80 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 16 36.20 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 17 37.10 28.90 0.67 0.00 0.1 1 18 53.70 36.60 0.99 5.12 5.2 1 19 52.00 38.40 0.01 4.69 9.9 1 20 46.70 38.50 0.39 2.21 12.1 1 21 49.60 38.10 0.23 3.48 15.6 1 22 52.40 39.80 0.12 5.26 20.9 1 23 52.40 33.00 0.00 3.99 24.9 1 24 46.60 26.40 0.00 1.29 26.1 1 25 47.70 36.70 0.00 2.39 28.5 1 26 49.60 36.60 0.02 3.23 31.8 1 27 48.90 30.70 0.00 2.32 34.1 1 28 47.70 30.50 0.00 1.85 35.9 1 29 42.40 31.60 0.00 0.22 36.2 1 30 46.50 41.20 0.00 2.85 39.0 1 31 45.80 37.00 0.00 1.61 40.6 2 1 42.50 37.30 0.00 0.35 41.0 2 2 43.50 34.90 0.00 0.59 41.6 2 3 39.60 31.20 0.93 0.00 41.6 2 4 53.20 45.50 0.53 8.35 49.9 2 5 47.50 35.80 2.34 2.20 52.1 2 6 44.10 33.40 0.14 0.73 52.8 2 7 39.90 31.10 0.08 0.00 52.8 2 8 42.50 38.30 1.17 0.40 53.2 2 9 60.40 42.30 0.51 10.35 63.6 2 10 50.60 40.30 0.07 4.53 68.1 2 11 51.20 36.70 0.00 3.98 72.1 2 12 52.50 31.50 0.00 3.86 75.9 2 13 58.50 30.80 0.00 6.39 82.3 2 14 54.00 30.90 0.03 4.43 86.8 2 15 55.80 43.40 0.96 8.60 95.4 2 16 54.30 46.40 0.98 9.35 104.7 2 17 56.10 40.80 0.00 7.46 112.2 2 18 52.20 42.80 0.04 6.50 118.7 2 19 50.50 41.00 0.15 4.75 123.4 2 20 51.60 42.60 0.96 6.10 129.5 2 21 45.90 39.00 1.18 1.92 131.4 2 22 46.40 35.00 0.05 1.67 133.1 2 23 45.00 32.80 0.03 1.01 134.1 2 24 41.90 30.80 0.02 0.11 134.2 2 25 48.60 32.20 0.00 2.32 136.5 2 26 42.60 35.90 0.49 0.34 136.9 2 27 43.30 35.90 0.11 0.56 137.4 2 28 49.50 33.70 0.03 2.82 140.3 3 1 51.80 40.60 0.01 5.23 145.5 3 2 49.80 36.00 0.02 3.23 148.7 3 3 51.30 42.90 0.40 6.10 154.8 3 4 48.30 34.80 0.11 2.43 157.3 3 5 44.50 34.80 0.12 0.93 158.2 3 6 44.90 33.70 0.35 1.02 159.2 3 7 49.10 40.90 0.70 4.00 163.2 3 8 48.80 43.50 0.30 5.15 168.4 3 9 58.30 44.20 0.45 10.25 178.6 3 10 60.00 47.60 0.00 12.80 191.4 3 11 56.10 42.40 0.60 8.25 199.7 3 12 63.80 44.00 0.01 12.90 212.6 3 13 56.20 44.00 0.63 9.10 221.7 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 14 59.90 44.00 0.73 10.95 232.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 15 57.20 46.80 0.00 11.00 243.6 3 16 54.70 35.40 0.00 5.37 249.0 3 17 48.20 39.10 0.30 3.03 252.0 3 18 56.60 41.00 0.49 7.80 259.8 3 19 56.40 34.40 0.01 5.99 265.8 3 20 56.00 39.50 0.14 6.94 272.7 3 21 63.80 45.30 0.20 13.55 286.3 3 22 53.30 43.20 0.08 7.25 293.5 3 23 57.10 36.50 0.24 6.71 300.2 3 24 55.20 46.00 0.86 9.60 309.8 3 25 52.90 41.40 0.02 6.15 316.0 3 26 53.00 43.90 0.53 7.45 323.4 3 27 53.10 44.60 0.13 7.85 331.3 3 28 59.80 46.30 0.05 12.05 343.3 3 29 55.20 46.40 0.58 9.80 353.1 3 30 57.70 42.30 0.00 9.00 362.1 3 31 59.00 39.80 0.01 8.53 370.7 4 1 58.30 44.00 0.01 10.15 380.8 4 2 56.20 37.50 0.00 6.51 387.3 4 3 56.50 33.60 0.00 5.90 393.2 4 4 59.10 40.60 0.00 8.87 402.1 Hx Hn 4 5 59.70 45.00 0.00 11.35 413.5 4 6 63.60 46.70 0.33 14.15 427.6 4 7 57.20 45.20 0.11 10.20 437.8 4 8 50.40 40.50 0.22 4.50 442.3 4 9 57.10 36.10 0.10 6.63 448.9 4 10 54.50 41.30 0.07 6.90 455.8 4 11 59.10 39.20 0.11 8.38 464.2 4 12 61.20 45.50 0.42 12.35 476.6 4 13 51.20 43.80 0.25 6.50 483.1 4 14 54.40 42.10 0.10 7.25 490.3 4 15 60.20 34.50 0.00 7.78 498.1 4 16 66.50 45.20 0.04 14.85 512.9 4 17 59.80 46.30 0.37 12.05 525.0 4 18 63.70 48.60 0.07 15.15 540.1 4 19 56.50 45.30 0.27 9.90 550.0 4 20 58.80 44.00 0.09 10.40 560.4 4 21 71.70 38.90 0.00 14.53 575.0 4 22 62.80 48.80 0.12 14.80 589.8 4 23 55.20 46.30 0.48 9.75 599.5 4 24 58.90 44.90 0.33 10.90 610.4 4 25 54.80 46.50 0.04 9.65 620.1 4 26 58.90 43.90 0.12 10.40 630.5 4 27 56.50 41.10 0.11 7.80 638.3 4 28 60.30 35.70 0.00 8.07 646.3 4 29 63.90 37.40 0.00 10.22 656.6 4 30 59.80 47.00 0.00 12.40 669.0 5 1 54.80 39.10 0.00 6.23 675.2 5 2 66.10 51.00 0.05 17.55 692.7 5 3 82.60 55.60 0.01 28.10 720.8 5 4 82.40 56.70 0.00 28.55 749.4 5 5 60.20 45.20 0.12 11.70 761.1 5 6 60.30 39.50 0.00 9.07 770.2 5 7 66.10 39.80 0.00 12.06 782.2 5 8 73.00 40.10 0.00 15.61 797.8 5 9 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 816.5 5 10 73.90 47.00 0.00 19.45 835.9 5 11 56.80 46.60 0.37 10.70 846.6 5 12 55.70 42.90 0.07 8.30 854.9 peak pheromone trap catch 5 13 54.50 44.80 0.35 8.65 863.6 5 14 60.20 47.60 0.02 12.90 876.5 5 15 59.70 41.40 0.22 9.55 886.0 5 16 57.50 47.40 0.26 11.45 897.5 5 17 58.40 46.60 0.01 11.50 909.0 5 18 69.10 44.80 0.00 15.95 924.9 5 19 76.60 48.90 0.00 21.75 946.7 5 20 71.10 52.70 0.00 20.90 967.6 peak female adult emergence 5 21 84.40 54.30 0.00 28.35 995.9 5 22 92.80 62.30 0.00 36.55 1032.5 peak egg laying 5 23 87.10 53.70 0.00 29.40 1061.9 5 24 66.10 45.90 0.00 15.00 1076.9 5 25 74.40 46.60 0.00 19.50 1096.4 5 26 84.60 52.10 0.00 27.35 1123.7 5 27 89.60 52.10 0.00 29.85 1153.6 5 28 81.00 53.20 0.00 26.10 1179.7 5 29 72.10 51.70 0.00 20.90 1200.6 5 30 61.40 54.00 0.02 16.70 1217.3 5 31 74.40 52.20 0.01 22.30 1239.6 6 1 70.50 57.50 0.02 23.00 1262.6 6 2 76.90 55.50 0.00 25.20 1287.8 peak egg hatch 6 3 65.10 53.60 0.04 18.35 1306.1 6 4 68.30 52.70 0.00 19.50 1325.6 6 5 78.80 45.80 0.00 21.30 1346.9 6 6 84.20 50.80 0.00 26.50 1373.4 6 7 76.30 52.10 0.04 23.20 1396.6 6 8 63.50 52.50 0.32 17.00 1413.6 6 9 60.10 50.80 0.18 14.45 1428.1 6 10 61.10 49.50 0.26 14.30 1442.4 6 11 68.60 51.40 0.01 19.00 1461.4 6 12 60.40 53.50 0.00 15.95 1477.3 6 13 64.20 51.80 0.00 17.00 1494.3 6 14 67.10 48.50 0.00 16.80 1511.1 6 15 64.60 54.90 0.33 18.75 1529.9 6 16 64.20 59.20 0.00 20.70 1550.6 6 17 72.00 56.50 0.00 23.25 1573.8 6 18 80.40 60.50 0.00 29.45 1603.3 6 19 87.70 59.60 0.00 32.65 1635.9 6 20 80.70 56.20 0.00 27.45 1663.4 6 21 75.90 46.80 0.00 20.35 1683.7 6 22 84.40 48.60 0.00 25.50 1709.2 6 23 91.70 58.60 0.00 34.15 1743.4 6 24 97.70 67.00 0.00 41.35 1784.7 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for ARAO data
  6 25  92.30 61.50  0.00  35.90   1820.6  0.00_26.90%_precip.    
  6 26  75.20 55.50  0.00  24.35   1845.0  0.00_15.35%_precip.    
  6 27  75.60 46.30  0.00  19.95   1864.9  0.00_11.18%_precip.    
  6 28  71.40 48.30  0.00  18.85   1883.8  0.00_9.91%_precip.    
  6 29  77.00 49.20  0.00  22.10   1905.9  0.00_13.11%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg ARAO 2006-2015
  6 30  78.20 55.30  0.01  25.75   1931.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  81.20 54.00  0.03  26.60   1958.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  83.60 54.70  0.03  28.15   1986.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  83.60 55.60  0.02  28.60   2015.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  81.50 54.80  0.00  27.15   2042.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.30 54.20  0.00  26.75   2068.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  79.80 54.70  0.00  26.25   2095.1  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  7  81.00 54.10  0.00  26.55   2121.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  83.20 55.20  0.00  28.20   2149.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  85.60 55.80  0.00  29.70   2179.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  85.90 56.20  0.00  30.05   2209.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  83.10 56.10  0.00  28.60   2238.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.10 55.80  0.01  27.45   2265.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.30 56.60  0.04  26.95   2292.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  79.30 55.20  0.01  26.25   2318.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  84.00 56.00  0.00  29.00   2347.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  84.40 56.50  0.00  29.45   2377.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  82.50 55.80  0.02  28.15   2405.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  79.80 55.30  0.09  26.55   2432.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  79.70 55.30  0.01  26.50   2458.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  81.40 55.60  0.03  27.50   2486.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  80.90 55.10  0.01  27.00   2513.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.20 55.70  0.00  27.95   2541.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  78.70 57.00  0.03  26.85   2567.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  80.90 55.60  0.04  27.25   2595.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  84.70 55.10  0.00  28.90   2624.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  83.50 55.40  0.01  28.45   2652.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  83.90 55.50  0.00  28.70   2681.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  83.30 55.70  0.00  28.50   2709.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  83.90 56.60  0.00  29.25   2738.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  83.80 57.50  0.00  29.65   2768.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  83.40 55.70  0.00  28.55   2797.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  84.30 54.50  0.00  28.40   2825.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  83.20 56.00  0.01  28.60   2854.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.10 56.10  0.00  28.10   2882.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.00 55.60  0.00  28.80   2911.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.30 55.40  0.00  29.85   2940.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.50 56.00  0.00  29.25   2970.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  82.30 56.70  0.00  28.50   2998.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.40 56.00  0.00  27.20   3025.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  77.80 56.00  0.00  25.90   3051.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  78.50 56.20  0.00  26.35   3078.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  80.80 55.40  0.00  27.10   3105.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  82.90 56.20  0.04  28.55   3133.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.80 55.70  0.01  27.75   3161.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  83.60 56.00  0.00  28.80   3190.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.20 57.40  0.00  30.30   3220.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.10 58.10  0.00  30.10   3250.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 57.10  0.00  30.45   3281.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 57.10  0.00  30.65   3311.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  83.50 56.70  0.04  29.10   3340.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.70 56.60  0.05  28.65   3369.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.20 54.60  0.05  26.40   3395.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.20 53.90  0.01  25.55   3421.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  79.40 53.90  0.00  25.65   3447.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  80.20 53.70  0.01  25.95   3473.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  81.70 54.30  0.04  27.00   3500.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.10 54.20  0.01  27.15   3527.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  82.40 54.30  0.00  27.35   3554.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  83.50 55.00  0.00  28.25   3582.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.50 55.60  0.01  27.55   3610.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  76.50 55.60  0.07  25.05   3635.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.60 54.40  0.07  24.00   3659.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  75.80 52.30  0.01  23.05   3682.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.00 52.60  0.00  24.80   3707.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.80 51.80  0.00  25.30   3732.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  80.60 52.40  0.01  25.50   3758.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  78.90 52.80  0.03  24.85   3782.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  78.50 53.30  0.17  24.90   3807.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  79.70 52.90  0.13  25.30   3833.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.50 52.90  0.03  25.70   3858.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.90 53.30  0.01  25.60   3884.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  79.80 53.30  0.00  25.55   3909.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.30 52.90  0.00  27.10   3937.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.40 52.90  0.00  28.65   3965.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  82.60 52.80  0.00  26.70   3992.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  76.40 53.10  0.00  23.75   4016.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  75.70 53.00  0.02  23.35   4039.5  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 ARAO AURORA OR
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 23 days behind 2016 ok
 20 days behind 2015 ok
 1 day ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-12-17 855peak pheromone trap catch
 5-20-17 968peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1032peak egg laying
 6-2-17 1288peak egg hatch
 7-6-17 2095peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)