Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.80 32.90 0.33 0.10 0.1 * START * 1 2 34.90 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 3 36.50 28.70 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 4 34.50 26.70 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 5 36.80 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 6 37.00 15.60 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 7 30.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 8 39.30 28.90 0.77 0.00 0.1 1 9 40.70 33.90 0.58 0.00 0.1 1 10 41.00 33.50 0.62 0.00 0.1 1 11 32.90 28.80 0.39 0.00 0.1 1 12 33.50 22.40 0.01 0.00 0.1 1 13 31.60 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 14 33.60 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 15 35.30 19.80 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 16 36.20 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.1 1 17 37.10 28.90 0.67 0.00 0.1 1 18 53.70 36.60 0.99 5.12 5.2 1 19 52.00 38.40 0.01 4.69 9.9 1 20 46.70 38.50 0.39 2.21 12.1 1 21 49.60 38.10 0.23 3.48 15.6 1 22 52.40 39.80 0.12 5.26 20.9 1 23 52.40 33.00 0.00 3.99 24.9 1 24 46.60 26.40 0.00 1.29 26.1 1 25 47.70 36.70 0.00 2.39 28.5 1 26 49.60 36.60 0.02 3.23 31.8 1 27 48.90 30.70 0.00 2.32 34.1 1 28 47.70 30.50 0.00 1.85 35.9 1 29 42.40 31.60 0.00 0.22 36.2 1 30 46.50 41.20 0.00 2.85 39.0 1 31 45.80 37.00 0.00 1.61 40.6 2 1 42.50 37.30 0.00 0.35 41.0 2 2 43.50 34.90 0.00 0.59 41.6 2 3 39.60 31.20 0.93 0.00 41.6 2 4 53.20 45.50 0.53 8.35 49.9 2 5 47.50 35.80 2.34 2.20 52.1 2 6 44.10 33.40 0.14 0.73 52.8 2 7 39.90 31.10 0.08 0.00 52.8 2 8 42.50 38.30 1.17 0.40 53.2 2 9 60.40 42.30 0.51 10.35 63.6 2 10 50.60 40.30 0.07 4.53 68.1 2 11 51.20 36.70 0.00 3.98 72.1 2 12 52.50 31.50 0.00 3.86 75.9 2 13 58.50 30.80 0.00 6.39 82.3 2 14 54.00 30.90 0.03 4.43 86.8 2 15 55.80 43.40 0.96 8.60 95.4 2 16 54.30 46.40 0.98 9.35 104.7 2 17 56.10 40.80 0.00 7.46 112.2 2 18 52.20 42.80 0.04 6.50 118.7 2 19 50.50 41.00 0.15 4.75 123.4 2 20 51.60 42.60 0.96 6.10 129.5 2 21 45.90 39.00 1.18 1.92 131.4 2 22 46.40 35.00 0.05 1.67 133.1 2 23 45.00 32.80 0.03 1.01 134.1 2 24 41.90 30.80 0.02 0.11 134.2 2 25 48.60 32.20 0.00 2.32 136.5 2 26 42.60 35.90 0.49 0.34 136.9 2 27 43.30 35.90 0.11 0.56 137.4 2 28 49.50 33.70 0.03 2.82 140.3 3 1 51.80 40.60 0.01 5.23 145.5 3 2 49.80 36.00 0.02 3.23 148.7 3 3 51.30 42.90 0.40 6.10 154.8 3 4 48.30 34.80 0.11 2.43 157.3 3 5 44.50 34.80 0.12 0.93 158.2 3 6 44.90 33.70 0.35 1.02 159.2 3 7 49.10 40.90 0.70 4.00 163.2 3 8 48.80 43.50 0.30 5.15 168.4 3 9 58.30 44.20 0.45 10.25 178.6 3 10 60.00 47.60 0.00 12.80 191.4 3 11 56.10 42.40 0.60 8.25 199.7 3 12 63.80 44.00 0.01 12.90 212.6 3 13 56.20 44.00 0.63 9.10 221.7 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 14 59.90 44.00 0.73 10.95 232.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 15 57.20 46.80 0.00 11.00 243.6 3 16 54.70 35.40 0.00 5.37 249.0 3 17 48.20 39.10 0.30 3.03 252.0 3 18 56.60 41.00 0.49 7.80 259.8 3 19 56.40 34.40 0.01 5.99 265.8 3 20 56.00 39.50 0.14 6.94 272.7 3 21 63.80 45.30 0.20 13.55 286.3 3 22 53.30 43.20 0.08 7.25 293.5 3 23 57.10 36.50 0.24 6.71 300.2 3 24 55.20 46.00 0.86 9.60 309.8 3 25 52.90 41.40 0.02 6.15 316.0 3 26 53.00 43.90 0.53 7.45 323.4 3 27 53.10 44.60 0.13 7.85 331.3 3 28 59.80 46.30 0.05 12.05 343.3 3 29 55.20 46.40 0.58 9.80 353.1 3 30 57.70 42.30 0.00 9.00 362.1 3 31 59.00 39.80 0.01 8.53 370.7 4 1 58.30 44.00 0.01 10.15 380.8 4 2 56.20 37.50 0.00 6.51 387.3 4 3 56.50 33.60 0.00 5.90 393.2 4 4 56.40 38.00 0.00 6.72 400.0 Hx Hn 4 5 59.70 45.00 0.00 11.35 411.3 4 6 63.60 46.70 0.33 14.15 425.5 4 7 57.20 45.20 0.11 10.20 435.7 4 8 50.40 40.50 0.22 4.50 440.2 4 9 57.10 36.10 0.10 6.63 446.8 4 10 54.50 41.30 0.07 6.90 453.7 4 11 59.10 39.20 0.11 8.38 462.1 4 12 61.20 45.50 0.42 12.35 474.4 4 13 51.20 43.80 0.25 6.50 480.9 4 14 54.40 42.10 0.10 7.25 488.2 4 15 60.20 34.50 0.00 7.78 495.9 4 16 66.50 45.20 0.04 14.85 510.8 4 17 59.80 46.30 0.37 12.05 522.8 4 18 63.70 48.60 0.07 15.15 538.0 4 19 56.50 45.30 0.27 9.90 547.9 4 20 58.80 44.00 0.09 10.40 558.3 4 21 71.70 38.90 0.00 14.53 572.8 4 22 62.80 48.80 0.12 14.80 587.6 4 23 55.20 46.30 0.48 9.75 597.4 4 24 58.90 44.90 0.33 10.90 608.3 4 25 54.80 46.50 0.04 9.65 617.9 4 26 58.90 43.90 0.12 10.40 628.3 4 27 56.50 41.10 0.11 7.80 636.1 4 28 60.30 35.70 0.00 8.07 644.2 4 29 63.90 37.40 0.00 10.22 654.4 4 30 59.80 47.00 0.00 12.40 666.8 5 1 54.80 39.10 0.00 6.23 673.0 5 2 66.10 51.00 0.05 17.55 690.6 5 3 82.60 55.60 0.01 28.10 718.7 5 4 82.40 56.70 0.00 28.55 747.2 5 5 60.20 45.20 0.12 11.70 758.9 5 6 60.30 39.50 0.00 9.07 768.0 5 7 66.10 39.80 0.00 12.06 780.1 5 8 73.00 40.10 0.00 15.61 795.7 5 9 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 814.3 5 10 73.90 47.00 0.00 19.45 833.8 5 11 56.80 46.60 0.37 10.70 844.5 5 12 55.70 42.90 0.07 8.30 852.8 peak pheromone trap catch 5 13 54.50 44.80 0.35 8.65 861.4 5 14 60.20 47.60 0.02 12.90 874.3 5 15 59.70 41.40 0.22 9.55 883.9 5 16 57.50 47.40 0.26 11.45 895.3 5 17 58.40 46.60 0.01 11.50 906.8 5 18 69.10 44.80 0.00 15.95 922.8 5 19 76.60 48.90 0.00 21.75 944.5 5 20 71.10 52.70 0.00 20.90 965.4 peak female adult emergence 5 21 84.40 54.30 0.00 28.35 993.8 5 22 92.80 62.30 0.00 36.55 1030.3 peak egg laying 5 23 87.10 53.70 0.00 29.40 1059.7 5 24 66.10 45.90 0.00 15.00 1074.7 5 25 74.40 46.60 0.00 19.50 1094.2 5 26 84.60 52.10 0.00 27.35 1121.6 5 27 89.60 52.10 0.00 29.85 1151.4 5 28 81.00 53.20 0.00 26.10 1177.5 5 29 72.10 51.70 0.00 20.90 1198.4 5 30 61.40 54.00 0.02 16.70 1215.1 5 31 74.40 52.20 0.01 22.30 1237.4 6 1 70.50 57.50 0.02 23.00 1260.4 6 2 76.90 55.50 0.00 25.20 1285.6 peak egg hatch 6 3 65.10 53.60 0.04 18.35 1304.0 6 4 68.30 52.70 0.00 19.50 1323.5 6 5 78.80 45.80 0.00 21.30 1344.8 6 6 84.20 50.80 0.00 26.50 1371.3 6 7 76.30 52.10 0.04 23.20 1394.5 6 8 63.50 52.50 0.32 17.00 1411.5 6 9 60.10 50.80 0.18 14.45 1425.9 6 10 61.10 49.50 0.26 14.30 1440.2 6 11 68.60 51.40 0.01 19.00 1459.2 6 12 60.40 53.50 0.00 15.95 1475.2 6 13 64.20 51.80 0.00 17.00 1492.2 6 14 67.10 48.50 0.00 16.80 1509.0 6 15 64.60 54.90 0.33 18.75 1527.7 6 16 64.20 59.20 0.00 20.70 1548.4 6 17 72.00 56.50 0.00 23.25 1571.7 6 18 80.40 60.50 0.00 29.45 1601.1 6 19 87.70 59.60 0.00 32.65 1633.8 6 20 80.70 56.20 0.00 27.45 1661.2 6 21 75.90 46.80 0.00 20.35 1681.6 6 22 84.40 48.60 0.00 25.50 1707.1 6 23 91.70 58.60 0.00 34.15 1741.2 6 24 97.70 67.00 0.00 41.35 1782.6 6 25 100.30 65.10 0.00 41.70 1824.3 6 26 78.20 58.40 0.00 27.30 1851.6 6 27 76.10 57.50 0.00 25.80 1877.4 6 28 73.20 52.20 0.00 21.70 1899.1 6 29 83.10 52.70 0.00 26.90 1926.0 6 30 84.90 55.80 0.00 29.35 1955.3 7 1 76.40 56.90 0.00 25.65 1981.0 7 2 84.10 53.50 0.00 27.80 2008.8 7 3 77.60 58.40 0.00 27.00 2035.8 7 4 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 2063.1 7 5 91.10 57.30 0.00 33.20 2096.3 peak in density large larvae 7 6 88.00 52.80 0.00 29.40 2125.7 7 7 71.30 54.20 0.00 21.75 2147.5 7 8 87.90 51.40 0.00 28.65 2176.1 7 9 86.10 53.20 0.00 28.65 2204.8 7 10 79.90 58.70 0.00 28.30 2233.1 7 11 79.90 49.00 0.00 23.45 2256.5 7 12 84.50 54.70 0.00 28.60 2285.1 7 13 77.00 56.20 0.00 25.60 2310.7 7 14 86.70 54.60 0.00 29.65 2340.4 7 15 81.70 56.90 0.00 28.30 2368.7 7 16 75.00 57.80 0.00 25.40 2394.1 7 17 80.90 48.60 0.01 23.75 2417.8 7 18 86.30 52.70 0.00 28.50 2446.3 7 19 80.90 50.50 0.00 24.70 2471.0 7 20 75.50 54.30 0.00 23.90 2494.9 7 21 83.60 52.40 0.00 27.00 2521.9 7 22 91.50 58.70 0.00 34.10 2556.0 7 23 85.10 63.70 0.00 33.40 2589.4 7 24 89.60 53.00 0.00 30.30 2619.7 7 25 90.20 56.00 0.00 32.10 2651.8 7 26 89.60 57.80 0.00 32.70 2684.5 7 27 78.70 60.10 0.00 28.40 2712.9 7 28 84.10 54.00 0.00 28.05 2741.0 7 29 88.00 54.50 0.00 30.25 2771.2 7 30 89.90 55.60 0.00 31.75 2803.0 7 31 92.10 55.80 0.00 32.95 2835.9 8 1 98.00 56.20 0.00 36.10 2872.0 8 2 103.60 62.50 0.00 42.05 2914.1 8 3 103.20 66.30 0.00 43.75 2957.8 8 4 95.60 62.20 0.00 37.90 2995.7 8 5 87.60 53.70 0.00 29.65 3025.4 8 6 87.60 55.80 0.00 30.70 3056.1 8 7 92.40 64.50 0.00 37.45 3093.5 8 8 94.00 60.30 0.00 36.15 3129.7 8 9 95.30 60.80 0.00 37.05 3166.7 8 10 90.10 59.90 0.00 34.00 3200.7 8 11 87.00 62.20 0.00 33.60 3234.3 8 12 78.20 59.90 0.00 28.05 3262.4 8 13 73.90 59.90 0.09 25.90 3288.3 8 14 72.30 48.90 0.00 19.60 3307.9 8 15 83.10 49.30 0.00 25.20 3333.1 8 16 85.50 52.40 0.00 27.95 3361.0 8 17 81.20 61.30 0.00 30.25 3391.3 8 18 84.50 55.60 0.00 29.05 3420.3 8 19 80.40 57.60 0.00 28.00 3448.3 8 20 81.50 50.40 0.00 24.95 3473.3 8 21 90.60 55.90 0.00 32.25 3505.5 8 22 86.70 57.90 0.00 31.30 3536.8 8 23 79.50 59.60 0.00 28.55 3565.4 8 24 75.50 60.20 0.00 26.85 3592.2 8 25 79.60 48.10 0.00 22.85 3615.1 8 26 91.50 52.70 0.00 31.10 3646.2 8 27 93.00 54.30 0.00 32.65 3678.8 8 28 97.70 57.30 0.00 36.50 3715.3 8 29 86.70 58.60 0.00 31.65 3747.0 8 30 80.40 52.50 0.00 25.45 3772.4 8 31 82.80 58.40 0.00 29.60 3802.0 9 1 92.60 57.00 0.00 33.80 3835.8 9 2 98.10 55.10 0.00 35.60 3871.4 9 3 95.40 58.70 0.00 36.05 3907.5 9 4 90.60 60.50 0.00 34.55 3942.0 9 5 89.60 62.90 0.00 35.25 3977.3 9 6 81.50 62.00 0.00 30.75 4008.0 9 7 83.60 65.20 0.00 33.40 4041.4 9 8 76.20 64.20 0.00 29.20 4070.6 9 9 79.50 62.80 0.02 30.15 4100.8 9 10 78.10 58.00 0.01 27.05 4127.8 9 11 92.70 50.50 0.00 30.60 4158.4 9 12 88.30 55.10 0.00 30.70 4189.1 9 13 75.40 48.60 0.00 21.00 4210.1 9 14 74.90 52.00 0.00 22.45 4232.6 9 15 78.50 45.20 0.00 20.85 4253.4 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for ARAO data
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg ARAO 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 ARAO AURORA OR
QA 100% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 5-12-17 853peak pheromone trap catch
 5-20-17 965peak female adult emergence
 5-22-17 1030peak egg laying
 6-2-17 1286peak egg hatch
 7-5-17 2096peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)