Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.50 33.40 0.00 0.26 0.3 * START * 1 2 38.50 28.90 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 3 31.40 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 4 35.50 31.40 0.42 0.00 0.3 1 5 40.80 31.80 0.15 0.00 0.3 1 6 44.80 30.30 0.01 0.85 1.1 1 7 44.50 36.00 0.07 1.00 2.1 1 8 46.40 34.60 0.01 1.63 3.7 1 9 46.80 34.60 0.08 1.79 5.5 1 10 51.50 31.60 0.00 3.45 9.0 1 11 43.00 29.30 0.26 0.33 9.3 1 12 47.90 40.10 0.89 3.13 12.4 1 13 50.30 41.80 0.36 5.05 17.5 1 14 46.20 41.50 0.46 2.85 20.3 1 15 48.60 37.50 0.02 2.91 23.3 1 16 56.00 43.80 0.48 8.90 32.2 1 17 48.40 42.10 0.79 4.25 36.4 1 18 54.70 37.30 0.27 5.74 42.2 1 19 47.70 43.80 0.73 4.75 46.9 1 20 50.40 42.20 0.06 5.30 52.2 1 21 56.00 45.40 0.17 9.70 61.9 1 22 57.90 49.60 0.42 12.75 74.7 1 23 52.20 44.10 0.21 7.15 81.8 1 24 50.60 39.10 0.03 4.18 86.0 1 25 58.20 42.80 0.00 9.50 95.5 1 26 56.50 47.10 0.12 10.80 106.3 1 27 60.20 47.30 0.02 12.75 119.0 1 28 60.10 44.10 0.42 11.10 130.1 1 29 52.80 42.10 0.51 6.45 136.6 1 30 46.00 33.90 0.26 1.43 138.0 1 31 41.70 35.00 0.10 0.10 138.1 2 1 46.50 36.10 0.01 1.81 139.9 2 2 50.90 31.90 0.02 3.23 143.1 2 3 47.80 39.70 0.28 2.97 146.1 2 4 55.80 42.40 0.31 8.10 154.2 2 5 58.50 34.40 0.20 6.96 161.2 2 6 52.70 38.70 0.00 5.10 166.3 2 7 63.70 44.40 0.01 13.05 179.3 2 8 64.20 37.10 0.00 10.29 189.6 2 9 64.80 35.10 0.00 10.09 199.7 2 10 61.90 40.00 0.00 10.04 209.8 2 11 56.60 49.90 0.13 12.25 222.0 2 12 55.70 44.40 0.17 9.05 231.1 2 13 52.30 39.00 0.30 4.98 236.0 2 14 56.00 49.20 0.28 11.60 247.6 2 15 60.30 49.40 0.00 13.85 261.5 2 16 56.40 48.00 0.12 11.20 272.7 2 17 59.80 46.60 0.35 12.20 284.9 2 18 49.80 41.30 0.49 4.55 289.4 2 19 50.80 42.20 0.38 5.50 294.9 2 20 52.60 35.80 0.07 4.47 299.4 2 21 52.80 32.70 0.09 4.12 303.5 2 22 52.40 37.70 0.01 4.73 308.3 2 23 61.50 37.00 0.01 8.95 317.2 2 24 61.60 38.30 0.00 9.34 326.5 2 25 66.30 37.60 0.00 11.45 338.0 2 26 56.70 40.00 0.29 7.45 345.5 2 27 58.60 47.10 0.05 11.85 357.3 2 28 54.80 44.00 0.11 8.40 365.7 2 29 53.70 40.70 0.15 6.22 371.9 3 1 58.30 46.40 0.28 11.35 383.3 3 2 58.40 41.50 0.43 8.95 392.2 3 3 62.50 45.10 0.02 12.80 405.0 3 4 60.20 38.00 0.00 8.57 413.6 3 5 62.00 49.00 0.28 14.50 428.1 3 6 54.80 46.70 0.06 9.75 437.8 3 7 53.20 41.40 0.10 6.30 444.1 3 8 48.90 34.00 0.21 2.60 446.7 3 9 58.90 46.10 0.55 11.50 458.2 3 10 57.10 43.40 0.22 9.25 467.5 3 11 51.70 40.80 0.18 5.26 472.8 3 12 49.90 42.50 0.50 5.20 478.0 3 13 52.10 40.70 0.84 5.42 483.4 3 14 49.80 41.00 0.35 4.40 487.8 3 15 46.90 41.90 0.37 3.40 491.2 3 16 56.10 43.30 0.16 8.70 499.9 3 17 61.40 35.20 0.00 8.49 508.4 3 18 64.50 49.00 0.00 15.75 524.1 3 19 67.10 45.70 0.00 15.40 539.5 3 20 58.60 48.10 0.28 12.35 551.9 3 21 52.70 45.70 0.35 8.20 560.1 3 22 55.70 43.90 0.06 8.80 568.9 3 23 54.30 45.50 0.04 8.90 577.8 3 24 53.70 42.90 0.07 7.30 585.1 3 25 55.00 40.00 0.01 6.61 591.7 3 26 58.50 38.20 0.03 7.80 599.5 3 27 53.70 42.50 0.13 7.10 606.6 3 28 56.10 37.00 0.02 6.34 612.9 3 29 65.60 32.10 0.00 9.85 622.8 3 30 73.30 36.30 0.00 14.52 637.3 3 31 73.40 40.30 0.00 15.89 653.2 4 1 76.00 42.50 0.00 18.25 671.4 4 2 68.70 44.20 0.00 15.45 686.9 4 3 72.20 41.90 0.27 16.05 702.9 4 4 58.20 43.10 0.28 9.65 712.6 4 5 59.80 41.90 0.00 9.85 722.4 4 6 73.10 40.80 0.00 15.96 738.4 4 7 86.30 45.40 0.00 24.85 763.2 4 8 80.30 51.30 0.00 24.80 788.0 4 9 64.40 47.60 0.00 15.00 803.0 4 10 60.70 48.80 0.00 13.75 816.8 4 11 62.10 50.00 0.00 15.05 831.8 4 12 59.90 46.90 0.13 12.40 844.2 4 13 60.30 44.10 0.21 11.20 855.4 peak pheromone trap catch 4 14 51.90 44.60 0.41 7.25 862.7 4 15 60.70 37.30 0.01 8.63 871.3 4 16 70.70 38.20 0.00 13.80 885.1 4 17 83.80 49.90 0.00 25.85 911.0 4 18 89.80 53.30 0.00 30.55 941.5 4 19 84.00 51.20 0.00 26.60 968.1 peak female adult emergence 4 20 76.80 50.50 0.00 22.65 990.8 4 21 73.30 45.90 0.11 18.60 1009.4 peak egg laying 4 22 64.40 50.40 0.51 16.40 1025.8 4 23 61.30 50.30 0.05 14.80 1040.6 4 24 55.60 43.70 0.32 8.65 1049.2 4 25 60.80 41.00 0.01 9.90 1059.1 4 26 57.00 35.40 0.00 6.44 1065.6 4 27 58.30 46.50 0.02 11.40 1077.0 4 28 61.40 43.90 0.00 11.65 1088.6 4 29 60.10 50.20 0.17 14.15 1102.8 4 30 68.60 41.20 0.00 13.90 1116.7 5 1 82.10 46.80 0.00 23.45 1140.1 5 2 83.00 54.30 0.00 27.65 1167.8 5 3 72.70 52.90 0.11 21.80 1189.6 5 4 62.00 50.90 0.01 15.45 1205.0 5 5 69.30 51.80 0.01 19.55 1224.6 5 6 82.90 48.10 0.00 24.50 1249.1 5 7 87.20 51.50 0.00 28.35 1277.4 peak egg hatch 5 8 64.20 49.90 0.00 16.05 1293.5 5 9 68.60 47.60 0.00 17.10 1310.6 5 10 78.70 42.90 0.00 19.80 1330.4 5 11 83.50 54.80 0.00 28.15 1358.5 5 12 81.40 47.50 0.00 23.45 1382.0 5 13 81.60 49.60 0.00 24.60 1406.6 5 14 56.40 53.80 0.11 14.10 1420.7 5 15 57.90 52.60 0.59 14.25 1434.9 5 16 58.90 52.60 0.02 14.75 1449.7 5 17 74.90 53.60 0.00 23.25 1472.9 5 18 73.40 50.10 0.00 20.75 1493.7 5 19 61.10 47.50 0.11 13.30 1507.0 5 20 64.70 46.30 0.00 14.50 1521.5 5 21 60.60 49.70 0.12 14.15 1535.6 5 22 63.70 50.80 0.13 16.25 1551.9 5 23 65.70 49.60 0.00 16.65 1568.5 5 24 68.80 53.30 0.00 20.05 1588.6 5 25 66.60 53.30 0.00 18.95 1607.5 5 26 61.50 52.50 0.00 16.00 1623.5 5 27 63.30 48.90 0.01 15.10 1638.6 5 28 73.70 43.60 0.00 17.65 1656.3 5 29 70.20 54.60 0.00 21.40 1677.7 5 30 77.80 47.20 0.00 21.50 1699.2 5 31 88.50 52.10 0.00 29.30 1728.5 6 1 81.10 55.20 0.00 27.15 1755.6 6 2 68.10 57.10 0.20 21.60 1777.2 6 3 88.90 56.50 0.00 31.70 1808.9 6 4 98.70 66.80 0.00 41.75 1850.7 6 5 94.30 65.70 0.00 39.00 1889.7 6 6 92.00 61.70 0.00 35.85 1925.5 6 7 90.00 56.10 0.00 32.05 1957.6 6 8 75.40 56.80 0.00 25.10 1982.7 6 9 62.30 53.20 0.07 16.75 1999.4 6 10 65.30 48.80 0.06 16.05 2015.5 6 11 66.50 51.40 0.00 17.95 2033.4 6 12 75.70 46.70 0.00 20.20 2053.6 6 13 66.10 50.00 0.00 17.05 2070.7 peak in density large larvae 6 14 59.90 46.20 0.36 12.05 2082.7 6 15 63.00 44.30 0.01 12.65 2095.4 6 16 67.10 45.60 0.01 15.35 2110.7 6 17 69.60 53.30 0.00 20.45 2131.2 6 18 65.90 50.20 0.11 17.05 2148.2 6 19 78.00 46.80 0.01 21.40 2169.6 6 20 78.70 53.50 0.00 25.10 2194.7 6 21 74.60 52.40 0.00 22.50 2217.2 6 22 78.70 48.90 0.00 22.80 2240.0 6 23 65.50 54.30 0.40 18.90 2258.9 6 24 67.50 53.80 0.03 19.65 2278.6 6 25 78.20 50.80 0.01 23.50 2302.1 6 26 89.60 56.80 0.00 32.20 2334.3 6 27 88.70 57.40 0.00 32.05 2366.3 6 28 82.50 54.70 0.00 27.60 2393.9 6 29 80.50 53.10 0.00 25.80 2419.7 6 30 79.50 50.70 0.00 24.10 2443.8 7 1 81.30 53.20 0.00 26.25 2470.1 7 2 85.00 59.00 0.00 31.00 2501.1 7 3 76.80 55.40 0.00 25.10 2526.2 7 4 70.40 49.80 0.00 19.10 2545.3 7 5 73.50 55.90 0.00 23.70 2569.0 7 6 80.50 53.80 0.00 26.15 2595.1 7 7 70.00 58.70 0.07 23.35 2618.5 7 8 72.80 58.50 0.17 24.65 2643.1 7 9 72.10 56.10 0.08 23.10 2666.2 7 10 68.60 56.20 0.01 21.40 2687.6 7 11 75.00 57.60 0.00 25.30 2712.9 7 12 72.60 57.00 0.00 23.80 2736.7 7 13 79.20 59.10 0.00 28.15 2764.9 7 14 82.60 51.20 0.00 25.90 2790.8 7 15 72.70 50.00 0.00 20.35 2811.1 7 16 74.30 59.50 0.00 25.90 2837.0 7 17 71.70 61.00 0.00 25.35 2862.4 7 18 76.00 61.60 0.00 27.80 2890.2 7 19 76.80 60.60 0.00 27.70 2917.9 7 20 83.30 53.20 0.00 27.25 2945.1 7 21 83.70 57.50 0.00 29.60 2974.7 7 22 72.10 59.40 0.00 24.75 2999.5 7 23 75.30 59.00 0.00 26.15 3025.6 7 24 88.10 52.00 0.00 29.05 3054.7 7 25 87.50 57.60 0.00 31.55 3086.2 7 26 84.50 58.40 0.00 30.45 3116.7 7 27 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 3147.4 7 28 93.30 57.90 0.00 34.60 3182.0 7 29 95.40 58.70 0.00 36.05 3218.0 7 30 81.80 59.00 0.00 29.40 3247.4 7 31 76.90 50.60 0.00 22.75 3270.2 8 1 81.30 51.10 0.00 25.20 3295.4 8 2 74.50 55.40 0.00 23.95 3319.3 8 3 79.10 50.30 0.00 23.70 3343.0 8 4 91.10 60.80 0.00 34.95 3378.0 8 5 81.70 55.40 0.00 27.55 3405.5 8 6 77.70 48.70 0.00 22.20 3427.7 8 7 72.20 53.60 0.00 21.90 3449.6 8 8 67.50 55.10 0.02 20.30 3469.9 8 9 69.10 57.90 0.00 22.50 3492.4 8 10 78.80 57.40 0.00 27.10 3519.5 8 11 88.80 55.20 0.00 31.00 3550.5 8 12 96.40 59.30 0.00 36.85 3587.4 8 13 94.80 60.90 0.00 36.85 3624.2 8 14 89.90 61.30 0.00 34.60 3658.8 8 15 87.10 55.70 0.00 30.40 3689.2 8 16 86.90 55.70 0.00 30.30 3719.5 8 17 83.80 55.60 0.00 28.70 3748.2 8 18 99.90 59.00 0.00 38.45 3786.7 8 19 99.30 70.00 0.00 43.65 3830.3 8 20 99.10 61.50 0.00 39.30 3869.6 8 21 82.90 58.10 0.00 29.50 3899.1 Vx 8 22 74.70 49.00 0.00 20.85 3920.0 8 23 84.00 48.90 0.00 25.45 3945.4 8 24 90.80 53.20 0.00 31.00 3976.4 8 25 93.60 65.30 0.00 38.45 4014.9 8 26 95.20 48.90 0.00 31.05 4045.9 8 27 83.10 59.90 0.00 30.50 4076.4 8 28 85.70 55.60 0.00 29.65 4106.1 8 29 82.80 53.20 0.00 27.00 4133.1 8 30 73.60 54.40 0.00 23.00 4156.1 8 31 69.30 53.20 0.02 20.25 4176.3 9 1 68.20 56.20 0.04 21.20 4197.5 9 2 69.50 56.80 0.02 22.15 4219.7 9 3 69.70 48.50 0.00 18.10 4237.8 9 4 68.90 49.10 0.00 18.00 4255.8 9 5 71.50 52.50 0.01 21.00 4276.8 9 6 70.40 54.90 0.03 21.65 4298.4 9 7 73.50 59.30 0.01 25.40 4323.8 9 8 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 4348.3 9 9 82.90 50.30 0.00 25.60 4373.9 9 10 86.00 52.20 0.00 28.10 4402.0 9 11 72.80 51.20 0.00 21.00 4423.0 9 12 78.70 48.10 0.00 22.40 4445.4 9 13 80.40 49.90 0.00 24.15 4469.5 9 14 78.40 43.30 0.00 19.85 4489.4 9 15 80.50 45.80 0.00 22.15 4511.5 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg ARAO 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2016 ARAO AURORA OR
DD accumulation on 1-20-17: 80 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 4 days behind 2016 ok
 11 days behind 2015 ok
 2 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 2-22-17: 177 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-17-17: 3579 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-17-17: 870 QA 100% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 4-13-16 855peak pheromone trap catch
 4-19-16 968peak female adult emergence
 4-21-16 1009peak egg laying
 5-7-16 1277peak egg hatch
 6-13-16 2071peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)