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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 54.00 44.60 0.02 8.30 8.3 * START *
1 2 51.10 41.00 0.00 5.05 13.3
1 3 55.90 37.40 0.17 6.34 19.7
1 4 48.20 33.80 0.16 2.29 22.0
1 5 48.90 42.10 0.49 4.50 26.5
1 6 51.80 44.10 0.63 6.95 33.4
1 7 54.00 44.60 0.23 8.30 41.7
1 8 46.40 35.10 0.06 1.68 43.4
1 9 43.00 28.00 0.00 0.31 43.7
1 10 48.20 37.00 0.80 2.66 46.4
1 11 46.40 41.00 0.72 2.70 49.1
1 12 46.90 36.00 0.70 1.97 51.0
1 13 39.90 37.00 0.12 0.00 51.0
1 14 41.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 51.0
1 15 42.80 26.60 0.32 0.26 51.3
1 16 41.00 30.00 0.13 0.00 51.3
1 17 43.00 32.00 0.11 0.37 51.7
1 18 50.00 39.00 0.01 3.87 55.5
1 19 55.40 41.00 0.03 7.20 62.7
1 20 48.20 39.00 0.14 3.00 65.7
1 21 48.90 41.00 0.28 3.95 69.7
1 22 52.00 42.10 0.12 6.05 75.7
1 23 57.20 50.00 0.60 12.60 88.3
1 24 55.40 46.00 0.16 9.70 98.0
1 25 55.90 46.40 0.27 10.15 108.2
1 26 54.00 44.10 0.35 8.05 116.2
1 27 53.60 37.40 0.95 5.24 121.5
1 28 53.60 44.10 0.53 7.85 129.3
1 29 48.90 44.60 0.32 5.75 135.1
1 30 53.60 44.60 0.08 8.10 143.2
1 31 61.00 51.80 0.01 15.40 158.6
2 1 55.90 37.00 0.16 6.25 164.8
2 2 46.40 30.00 0.02 1.36 166.2
2 3 46.90 28.00 0.00 1.45 167.6
2 4 43.00 26.60 0.00 0.30 167.9
2 5 52.00 39.20 0.05 4.89 172.8
2 6 57.20 48.00 0.01 11.60 184.4
2 7 54.00 42.80 0.12 7.40 191.8
2 8 48.90 34.00 0.09 2.60 194.4
2 9 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 195.7
2 10 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 198.2
2 11 45.00 28.40 0.00 0.86 199.1
2 12 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 202.6
2 13 45.00 30.90 0.03 0.93 203.6
2 14 50.00 35.10 0.01 3.20 206.8
2 15 46.90 42.10 0.32 3.50 210.3
2 16 50.00 37.40 0.04 3.54 213.8
2 17 51.80 30.90 0.00 3.50 217.3
2 18 53.60 26.60 0.00 3.86 221.2
2 19 57.90 33.80 0.00 6.58 227.7
2 20 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 234.0
2 21 55.90 26.60 0.00 4.79 238.8
2 22 57.20 27.00 0.02 5.37 244.2
2 23 51.80 39.00 0.11 4.74 248.9
2 24 48.90 33.10 0.01 2.51 251.4
2 25 54.00 28.00 0.00 4.14 255.6
2 26 57.20 37.90 0.00 7.09 262.7
2 27 62.60 28.90 0.00 7.95 270.6
2 28 55.40 32.00 0.15 5.17 275.8
2 29 48.20 32.00 0.35 2.14 277.9
3 1 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 280.0
3 2 48.90 39.20 0.00 3.39 283.3
3 3 60.80 44.10 0.00 11.45 294.8
3 4 55.40 36.00 0.00 5.81 300.6
3 5 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 306.9
3 6 46.90 39.90 0.22 2.59 309.5
3 7 46.90 30.90 0.13 1.58 311.1
3 8 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 313.6
3 9 55.90 26.10 0.00 4.74 318.4
3 10 61.00 26.60 0.00 6.95 325.3
3 11 57.90 33.10 0.00 6.46 331.8
3 12 55.40 26.10 0.00 4.54 336.3
3 13 41.00 32.00 0.30 0.00 336.3
3 14 41.00 33.10 0.15 0.00 336.3
3 15 39.90 32.00 0.00 0.00 336.3
3 16 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 344.5
3 17 60.80 28.40 0.00 7.08 351.6
3 18 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 357.9
3 19 64.40 30.00 0.00 8.93 366.8
3 20 68.00 32.00 0.00 10.96 377.8
3 21 60.80 32.00 0.00 7.61 385.4
3 22 63.00 30.00 0.02 8.30 393.7
3 23 52.00 39.00 0.12 4.84 398.5
3 24 48.90 37.00 0.02 2.97 401.5
3 25 52.00 33.80 0.05 3.91 405.4
3 26 51.80 28.40 0.01 3.29 408.7
3 27 50.00 37.00 0.14 3.47 412.1
3 28 55.40 46.00 0.19 9.70 421.8
3 29 57.90 44.60 0.22 10.25 432.1
3 30 50.00 42.10 0.50 5.05 437.1
3 31 52.00 37.00 0.14 4.40 441.5
4 1 50.00 37.00 0.40 3.47 445.0
4 2 51.80 33.10 0.06 3.74 448.8
4 3 50.00 30.20 0.03 2.71 451.5
4 4 50.00 35.10 0.16 3.20 454.7
4 5 64.00 41.00 0.05 11.50 466.2
4 6 60.80 37.90 0.00 8.84 475.0
4 7 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 483.8
4 8 73.40 33.80 0.00 13.93 497.7
4 9 77.00 44.60 0.00 19.80 517.5
4 10 70.00 37.40 0.00 13.21 530.7
4 11 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 540.3
4 12 66.20 33.80 0.00 10.47 550.8
4 13 66.90 32.00 0.00 10.44 561.2
4 14 68.00 32.00 0.00 10.96 572.2
4 15 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 584.1
4 16 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 597.2
4 17 75.20 39.00 0.00 16.30 613.5
4 18 55.40 43.00 0.14 8.20 621.7
4 19 62.10 41.00 0.00 10.55 632.2
4 20 70.00 35.10 0.00 12.60 644.8
4 21 62.10 39.00 0.01 9.80 654.6
4 22 59.00 44.60 0.37 10.80 665.4
4 23 63.00 46.00 0.02 13.50 678.9
4 24 64.40 46.90 0.07 14.65 693.6
4 25 64.90 43.00 0.26 12.95 706.5
4 26 64.90 35.60 0.07 10.25 716.8
4 27 66.90 45.00 0.04 14.95 731.7
4 28 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 746.2
4 29 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 764.2
4 30 64.40 42.10 0.00 12.25 776.5
5 1 60.10 35.60 0.10 7.95 784.4
5 2 57.90 42.80 0.45 9.35 793.8
5 3 60.80 39.20 0.06 9.22 803.0
5 4 66.90 37.40 0.14 11.69 814.7
5 5 71.10 46.40 0.07 17.75 832.4
5 6 63.00 43.00 0.03 12.00 844.4
5 7 73.90 39.00 0.00 15.65 860.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 8 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 887.8
5 9 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 918.7
5 10 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 945.7
5 11 66.20 48.00 0.02 16.10 961.8 Peak female adult emergence
5 12 61.00 48.00 0.14 13.50 975.3
5 13 62.60 48.20 0.12 14.40 989.7
5 14 57.20 50.00 0.40 12.60 1002.3 Peak egg laying
5 15 66.90 48.20 0.01 16.55 1018.9
5 16 66.20 50.00 0.13 17.10 1036.0
5 17 66.20 48.00 0.04 16.10 1052.1
5 18 59.00 50.00 0.35 13.50 1065.6
5 19 63.00 42.10 0.05 11.55 1077.1
5 20 60.80 46.40 0.03 12.60 1089.7
5 21 59.00 46.00 0.03 11.50 1101.2
5 22 61.00 41.00 0.10 10.00 1111.2
5 23 64.40 37.00 0.00 10.36 1121.6
5 24 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1139.6
5 25 69.80 50.00 0.02 18.90 1158.5
5 26 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1181.0
5 27 84.20 42.10 0.00 22.15 1203.2
5 28 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 1232.2
5 29 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1258.3
5 30 60.80 51.10 0.26 14.95 1273.2 Peak egg hatch
5 31 66.20 46.00 0.00 15.10 1288.3
6 1 72.00 37.40 0.00 14.20 1302.5
6 2 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 1321.1
6 3 75.00 44.60 0.00 18.80 1339.9
6 4 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1358.8
6 5 71.10 51.10 0.03 20.10 1378.9
6 6 62.10 46.00 0.37 13.05 1391.9
6 7 63.00 46.00 0.01 13.50 1405.4
6 8 64.00 48.90 0.29 15.45 1420.9
6 9 64.90 48.20 0.14 15.55 1436.4
6 10 77.00 55.40 0.01 25.20 1461.6
6 11 75.90 53.60 0.03 23.75 1485.4
6 12 60.10 51.80 0.15 14.95 1500.3
6 13 61.00 44.60 0.13 11.80 1512.1
6 14 68.00 44.10 0.09 15.05 1527.2
6 15 64.40 50.00 0.04 16.20 1543.4
6 16 66.20 50.00 0.06 17.10 1560.5
6 17 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1579.4
6 18 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 1602.6
6 19 84.00 48.20 0.00 25.10 1627.7
6 20 71.10 53.10 0.28 21.10 1648.8
6 21 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 1670.9
6 22 87.80 48.00 0.00 26.90 1697.8
6 23 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 1728.6
6 24 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 1754.5
6 25 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 1780.0
6 26 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 1809.5
6 27 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 1831.8
6 28 70.00 51.80 0.01 19.90 1851.7
6 29 75.20 48.00 0.00 20.60 1872.3
6 30 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1891.8
7 1 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 1909.8
7 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 1930.4
7 3 75.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 1951.9
7 4 75.00 52.00 0.00 22.50 1974.4
7 5 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 1996.2
7 6 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 2014.8
7 7 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 2036.3
7 8 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2060.6
7 9 78.10 54.00 0.00 25.05 2085.7 Peak in density large larvae
7 10 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2112.7
7 11 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 2135.2
7 12 79.00 55.90 0.01 26.45 2161.6
7 13 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 2184.6
7 14 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 2210.7
7 15 90.00 51.10 0.00 29.55 2240.3
7 16 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 2270.3
7 17 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 2295.3
7 18 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 2320.3
7 19 91.90 52.00 0.00 30.95 2351.2
7 20 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 2385.2
7 21 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 2418.2
7 22 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2447.9
7 23 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 2472.0
7 24 73.40 48.90 0.00 20.15 2492.1
7 25 82.90 44.10 0.00 22.50 2514.6
7 26 100.40 50.00 0.00 34.20 2548.8
7 27 97.00 55.40 0.00 35.20 2584.0
7 28 91.40 55.40 0.00 32.40 2616.4
7 29 95.00 53.10 0.00 33.05 2649.5
7 30 95.00 54.00 0.00 33.50 2683.0
7 31 87.80 55.90 0.00 30.85 2713.8
8 1 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2741.7
8 2 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 2770.9
8 3 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 2798.2
8 4 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2829.5
8 5 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2858.3
8 6 75.90 50.00 0.04 21.95 2880.3
8 7 80.60 44.60 0.00 21.60 2901.9
8 8 79.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 2927.4
8 9 84.90 46.40 0.00 24.65 2952.0
8 10 91.90 54.00 0.00 31.95 2984.0
8 11 82.90 44.60 0.00 22.75 3006.7
8 12 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 3027.8
8 13 80.60 42.80 0.00 20.70 3048.5
8 14 90.00 46.00 0.00 27.00 3075.5
8 15 100.40 55.40 0.00 36.90 3112.4
8 16 91.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 3145.9
8 17 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 3181.0
8 18 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 3213.4
8 19 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 3242.2
8 20 82.40 57.00 0.05 28.70 3270.9
8 21 75.20 55.90 0.01 24.55 3295.5
8 22 80.60 46.40 0.00 22.50 3318.0
8 23 84.90 46.40 0.00 24.65 3342.6
8 24 82.90 46.40 0.00 23.65 3366.3
8 25 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 3394.3
8 26 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 3422.7
8 27 88.00 46.40 0.00 26.20 3448.9
8 28 89.10 48.00 0.00 27.55 3476.5
8 29 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 3500.0
8 30 80.60 42.10 0.00 20.35 3520.3
8 31 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 3545.4
9 1 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 3576.5
9 2 96.80 54.00 0.00 34.40 3610.9
9 3 99.00 53.60 0.00 35.30 3646.2
9 4 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 3672.2
9 5 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 3695.7
9 6 93.90 48.00 0.00 29.95 3725.7
9 7 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 3756.9
9 8 78.80 62.10 0.00 29.45 3786.4
9 9 82.90 66.20 0.00 33.55 3819.9
9 10 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 3842.4
9 11 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 3858.6
9 12 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 3871.2
9 13 64.40 44.10 0.00 13.25 3884.4
9 14 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 3905.1
9 15 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 3931.0
9 16 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 3951.7
9 17 75.90 51.80 0.87 22.85 3974.6
9 18 68.00 55.40 0.55 20.70 3995.3
9 19 72.00 53.60 0.01 21.80 4017.1
9 20 75.90 51.80 0.00 22.85 4039.9
9 21 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 4060.6
9 22 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 4084.1
9 23 70.00 55.90 0.33 21.95 4106.0
9 24 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 4127.8
9 25 63.00 55.00 0.30 18.00 4145.8
9 26 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 4165.6
9 27 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 4185.2
9 28 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 4216.7
9 29 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 4246.4
9 30 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 4269.8
10 1 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 4290.9
10 2 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 4314.3
10 3 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 4338.2
10 4 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 4355.3
10 5 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 4377.8
10 6 79.00 44.10 0.00 20.55 4398.4
10 7 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 4417.3
10 8 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 4435.8
10 9 70.00 53.60 0.14 20.80 4456.6
10 10 64.40 51.10 0.18 16.75 4473.4
10 11 61.00 48.00 0.51 13.50 4486.9
10 12 66.20 55.00 0.07 19.60 4506.5
10 13 64.90 50.00 0.27 16.45 4522.9
10 14 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 4534.9
10 15 66.00 37.00 0.00 11.14 4546.0
10 16 73.40 37.90 0.00 15.04 4561.0
10 17 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 4578.0
10 18 71.10 51.80 0.00 20.45 4598.5
10 19 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 4613.8
10 20 64.90 42.10 0.00 12.50 4626.3
10 21 60.10 35.60 0.03 7.95 4634.2
10 22 57.90 30.00 0.00 6.01 4640.3
10 23 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 4646.0
10 24 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 4654.1
10 25 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 4656.8
10 26 55.90 24.80 0.00 4.63 4661.4
10 27 60.80 26.60 0.00 6.86 4668.3
10 28 66.90 33.10 0.00 10.66 4679.0
10 29 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 4688.5
10 30 63.00 35.60 0.01 9.34 4697.9
10 31 57.00 30.20 0.00 5.65 4703.5
11 1 66.00 30.00 0.00 9.67 4713.2
11 2 64.40 30.00 0.00 8.93 4722.1
11 3 63.00 35.10 0.11 9.23 4731.4
11 4 68.00 57.20 0.08 21.60 4753.0
11 5 64.40 48.00 0.63 15.20 4768.2
11 6 51.80 46.00 0.01 7.90 4776.1
11 7 51.10 30.00 0.02 3.14 4779.2
11 8 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 4781.7
11 9 45.00 24.10 0.11 0.76 4782.4
11 10 52.00 37.90 0.15 4.58 4787.0
11 11 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 4790.9
11 12 48.90 30.90 0.44 2.34 4793.3
11 13 55.40 39.20 0.73 6.56 4799.8
11 14 50.00 41.00 1.16 4.50 4804.3
11 15 57.00 44.10 0.18 9.55 4813.9
11 16 54.00 43.00 0.08 7.50 4821.4
11 17 57.90 41.00 0.41 8.45 4829.8
11 18 51.10 44.10 1.22 6.60 4836.4
11 19 52.00 39.00 0.03 4.84 4841.3
11 20 42.80 36.00 0.00 0.40 4841.7
11 21 42.10 36.00 0.00 0.20 4841.9
11 22 39.90 36.00 0.11 0.00 4841.9
11 23 52.00 37.00 0.03 4.40 4846.3
11 24 51.80 39.00 0.23 4.74 4851.0
11 25 50.00 37.90 0.11 3.63 4854.7
11 26 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 4858.7
11 27 43.00 37.00 0.00 0.51 4859.2
11 28 44.10 35.60 0.06 0.83 4860.1
11 29 48.90 36.00 0.15 2.83 4862.9
11 30 52.00 33.10 0.10 3.82 4866.7
12 1 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 4869.3
12 2 46.90 41.00 0.00 2.95 4872.2
12 3 48.90 33.10 0.00 2.51 4874.7
12 4 57.90 28.00 0.00 5.77 4880.5
12 5 54.00 35.10 0.07 5.00 4885.5
12 6 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 4889.4
12 7 46.90 37.00 0.00 2.08 4891.5
12 8 46.90 37.90 0.11 2.20 4893.7
12 9 55.40 37.00 0.16 6.01 4899.7
12 10 43.00 37.00 0.14 0.51 4900.2
12 11 44.60 35.60 0.49 1.01 4901.2
12 12 42.10 36.00 0.13 0.20 4901.4
12 13 45.00 39.00 0.23 1.51 4903.0
12 14 50.00 37.00 0.11 3.47 4906.4
12 15 49.10 44.10 0.16 5.60 4912.0 Px
12 16 52.00 42.10 0.38 6.05 4918.1
12 17 54.00 37.00 0.09 5.34 4923.4
12 18 52.00 37.00 0.30 4.40 4927.8
12 19 55.90 48.00 1.44 10.95 4938.8
12 20 55.90 46.90 1.25 10.40 4949.2
12 21 61.00 42.10 0.32 10.55 4959.7
12 22 48.90 30.90 0.01 2.34 4962.1
12 23 48.90 30.90 0.00 2.34 4964.4
12 24 35.10 28.00 0.00 0.00 4964.4
12 25 50.00 33.10 0.91 2.97 4967.4
12 26 52.00 42.10 0.11 6.05 4973.4
12 27 52.00 37.90 0.06 4.58 4978.0
12 28 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 4980.5
12 29 37.40 26.10 0.11 0.00 4980.5
12 30 48.90 35.60 3.46 2.78 4983.3
12 31 51.60 46.70 0.00 8.15 4991.4 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-7-20 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-11-20 | 962 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-14-20 | 1002 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-30-20 | 1273 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-9-20 | 2086 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3797834)
