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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 42.10 30.00 0.00 0.14 0.1 * START *
1 2 37.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.1
1 3 33.80 26.10 0.25 0.00 0.1
1 4 37.00 33.10 0.03 0.00 0.1
1 5 41.00 30.00 0.09 0.00 0.1
1 6 45.00 28.00 0.05 0.84 1.0
1 7 46.90 34.00 0.06 1.79 2.8
1 8 41.00 36.00 0.07 0.00 2.8
1 9 46.00 37.00 0.06 1.69 4.5
1 10 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 7.5
1 11 43.00 37.00 0.29 0.51 8.0
1 12 45.00 41.00 1.49 2.00 10.0
1 13 54.00 39.90 0.61 6.08 16.1
1 14 45.00 39.90 0.33 1.67 17.8
1 15 51.10 37.40 0.41 4.06 21.8
1 16 53.10 41.00 0.32 6.05 27.9
1 17 50.00 39.90 0.67 4.11 32.0
1 18 51.10 39.90 0.41 4.65 36.7
1 19 48.90 44.10 0.88 5.50 42.2
1 20 46.90 42.10 0.15 3.50 45.7
1 21 52.00 45.00 0.50 7.50 53.2
1 22 57.90 48.00 0.13 11.95 65.1
1 23 51.80 45.00 0.14 7.40 72.5
1 24 48.00 36.00 0.01 2.44 74.9
1 25 55.90 43.00 0.00 8.45 83.4
1 26 59.00 48.00 0.04 12.50 95.9
1 27 55.90 51.10 0.01 12.50 108.4
1 28 61.00 45.00 0.58 12.00 120.4
1 29 50.00 41.00 0.84 4.50 124.9
1 30 46.90 34.00 0.13 1.79 126.7
1 31 42.10 34.00 0.02 0.17 126.8
2 1 46.90 35.10 0.07 1.88 128.7
2 2 48.90 34.00 0.01 2.60 131.3
2 3 48.00 37.90 0.62 2.70 134.0
2 4 55.90 42.10 0.19 8.00 142.0
2 5 55.90 36.00 0.10 6.04 148.1
2 6 53.10 35.10 0.00 4.59 152.7
2 7 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 165.7
2 8 66.00 39.90 0.00 12.05 177.7
2 9 63.00 37.90 0.00 9.92 187.6
2 10 62.10 37.00 0.00 9.24 196.9
2 11 55.40 50.00 0.23 11.70 208.6
2 12 60.10 44.10 0.12 11.10 219.7
2 13 51.10 39.00 0.41 4.40 224.1
2 14 57.00 48.90 0.17 11.95 236.0
2 15 59.00 46.90 0.00 11.95 248.0
2 16 57.00 48.00 0.01 11.50 259.5
2 17 57.00 46.90 0.12 10.95 270.4
2 18 51.10 44.10 0.49 6.60 277.0
2 19 48.90 39.90 0.48 3.57 280.6
2 20 53.10 36.00 0.01 4.73 285.3
2 21 54.00 34.00 0.10 4.83 290.1
2 22 52.00 36.00 0.04 4.23 294.4
2 23 60.10 37.00 0.00 8.27 302.6
2 24 61.00 39.90 0.00 9.56 312.2
2 25 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 322.4
2 26 54.00 39.90 0.33 6.08 328.4
2 27 57.90 46.00 0.02 10.95 339.4
2 28 55.00 42.10 0.04 7.55 346.9
2 29 52.00 37.90 0.39 4.58 351.5
3 1 55.90 45.00 0.14 9.45 361.0
3 2 54.00 42.10 0.23 7.05 368.0
3 3 62.10 42.10 0.10 11.10 379.1
3 4 57.00 37.00 0.11 6.78 385.9
3 5 60.10 48.90 0.33 13.50 399.4
3 6 55.00 44.10 0.48 8.55 407.9
3 7 53.10 37.00 0.13 4.92 412.9
3 8 48.00 33.10 0.24 2.15 415.0
3 9 57.90 46.00 0.81 10.95 426.0
3 10 57.90 42.10 0.13 9.00 435.0
3 11 51.10 41.00 0.25 5.05 440.0
3 12 50.00 42.10 0.65 5.05 445.1
3 13 51.10 41.00 0.96 5.05 450.1
3 14 48.00 39.90 0.44 3.12 453.2
3 15 48.00 41.00 0.37 3.50 456.7
3 16 55.00 41.00 0.04 7.00 463.7
3 17 62.10 34.00 0.00 8.57 472.3
3 18 64.90 43.00 0.01 12.95 485.3
3 19 64.90 46.00 0.03 14.45 499.7
3 20 57.90 48.00 0.31 11.95 511.7
3 21 51.10 44.10 0.27 6.60 518.3
3 22 55.90 42.10 0.05 8.00 526.3
3 23 54.00 44.10 0.04 8.05 534.3
3 24 55.00 41.00 0.03 7.00 541.3
3 25 55.00 39.90 0.05 6.58 547.9
3 26 57.90 39.00 0.11 7.73 555.6
3 27 54.00 39.90 0.02 6.08 561.7
3 28 59.00 36.00 0.01 7.51 569.2
3 29 66.90 33.10 0.00 10.66 579.9
3 30 73.00 35.10 0.00 14.05 593.9
3 31 73.00 37.90 0.00 14.84 608.8
4 1 75.00 41.00 0.00 17.00 625.8
4 2 69.10 42.10 0.00 14.60 640.4
4 3 72.00 42.10 0.37 16.05 656.4
4 4 57.90 44.10 0.09 10.00 666.4
4 5 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 676.4
4 6 73.90 37.00 0.00 15.01 691.4
4 7 87.10 48.90 0.00 27.00 718.4
4 8 79.00 46.90 0.00 21.95 740.4
4 9 66.00 45.00 0.00 14.50 754.9
4 10 62.10 45.00 0.00 12.55 767.4
4 11 63.00 46.90 0.00 13.95 781.4
4 12 60.10 46.00 0.23 12.05 793.4
4 13 60.10 45.00 0.27 11.55 805.0
4 14 55.00 44.10 0.31 8.55 813.5
4 15 61.00 35.10 0.00 8.27 821.8
4 16 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 835.5
4 17 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 860.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 18 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 890.1
4 19 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 914.5
4 20 77.00 48.90 0.00 21.95 936.5
4 21 75.00 45.00 0.68 19.00 955.5 Peak female adult emergence
4 22 66.90 46.90 0.43 15.90 971.4
4 23 63.00 45.00 0.20 13.00 984.4
4 24 55.90 42.10 0.10 8.00 992.4
4 25 60.10 36.00 0.00 8.04 1000.4 Peak egg laying
4 26 57.90 35.10 0.06 6.81 1007.2
4 27 59.00 44.10 0.01 10.55 1017.8
4 28 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 1030.8
4 29 61.00 46.00 0.21 12.50 1043.3
4 30 70.00 37.90 0.00 13.36 1056.6
5 1 82.00 42.10 0.00 21.05 1077.7
5 2 82.90 48.00 0.02 24.45 1102.1
5 3 70.00 52.00 0.02 20.00 1122.1
5 4 61.00 53.00 0.02 16.00 1138.1
5 5 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 1158.1
5 6 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 1182.6
5 7 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 1209.0
5 8 64.90 43.00 0.00 12.95 1222.0
5 9 68.00 43.00 0.00 14.50 1236.5
5 10 79.00 41.00 0.00 19.00 1255.5
5 11 84.00 45.00 0.00 23.50 1279.0 Peak egg hatch
5 12 80.10 43.00 0.00 20.55 1299.5
5 13 78.10 48.00 0.01 22.05 1321.6
5 14 55.90 53.10 0.33 13.50 1335.1
5 15 61.00 53.10 0.13 16.05 1351.1
5 16 61.00 52.00 0.00 15.50 1366.6
5 17 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 1390.7
5 18 73.90 48.00 0.00 19.95 1410.6
5 19 62.10 46.00 0.08 13.05 1423.7
5 20 64.90 43.00 0.00 12.95 1436.6
5 21 62.10 48.90 0.01 14.50 1451.1
5 22 64.00 50.00 0.04 16.00 1467.1
5 23 64.90 50.00 0.10 16.45 1483.6
5 24 69.10 50.00 0.00 18.55 1502.1
5 25 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 1519.6
5 26 62.10 48.00 0.00 14.05 1533.6
5 27 64.00 45.00 0.13 13.50 1547.1
5 28 73.00 39.90 0.00 15.53 1562.7
5 29 71.10 46.90 0.00 18.00 1580.7
5 30 79.00 41.00 0.00 19.00 1599.7
5 31 89.10 46.00 0.00 26.55 1626.2
6 1 80.10 52.00 0.00 25.05 1651.3
6 2 69.10 55.00 0.02 21.05 1672.3
6 3 89.10 54.00 0.00 30.55 1702.9
6 4 97.00 60.10 0.00 37.55 1740.4
6 5 91.90 62.10 0.00 36.00 1776.4
6 6 93.00 59.00 0.00 35.00 1811.4
6 7 91.00 53.10 0.00 31.05 1842.5
6 8 73.00 55.00 0.00 23.00 1865.5
6 9 62.10 50.00 0.15 15.05 1880.5
6 10 66.90 45.00 0.02 14.95 1895.5
6 11 70.00 46.90 0.00 17.45 1912.9
6 12 77.00 43.00 0.00 19.00 1931.9
6 13 66.00 48.00 0.14 16.00 1947.9
6 14 62.10 46.90 0.37 13.50 1961.4
6 15 62.10 46.90 0.10 13.50 1974.9
6 16 66.00 46.90 0.00 15.45 1990.4
6 17 70.00 50.00 0.01 19.00 2009.4
6 18 68.00 46.00 0.25 16.00 2025.4
6 19 78.10 42.10 0.00 19.10 2044.5
6 20 78.10 51.10 0.00 23.60 2068.1
6 21 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 2090.6 Peak in density large larvae
6 22 79.00 46.00 0.21 21.50 2112.1
6 23 64.90 54.00 0.17 18.45 2130.5
6 24 69.10 50.00 0.00 18.55 2149.1
6 25 81.00 46.90 0.00 22.95 2172.0
6 26 91.00 53.10 0.00 31.05 2203.1
6 27 87.10 57.00 0.00 31.05 2234.1
6 28 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2261.1
6 29 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 2287.1
6 30 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 2311.6
7 1 82.90 48.90 0.00 24.90 2336.5
7 2 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2366.4
7 3 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 2389.9
7 4 73.90 46.90 0.00 19.40 2409.3
7 5 75.90 48.90 0.00 21.40 2430.7
7 6 82.00 50.00 0.00 25.00 2455.7
7 7 69.10 57.00 0.12 22.05 2477.8
7 8 73.40 59.00 0.10 25.20 2503.0
7 9 73.40 53.10 0.01 22.25 2525.2
7 10 69.80 55.40 0.07 21.60 2546.8
7 11 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 2570.6
7 12 73.00 55.40 0.05 23.20 2593.8
7 13 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2621.9
7 14 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 2647.9
7 15 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 2667.8
7 16 73.90 53.60 0.00 22.75 2690.6
7 17 73.90 57.00 0.00 24.45 2715.0
7 18 75.00 55.40 0.00 24.20 2739.2
7 19 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2764.7
7 20 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 2792.9
7 21 82.40 54.00 0.00 27.20 2820.1
7 22 73.90 60.10 0.00 26.00 2846.1
7 23 78.80 57.00 0.00 26.90 2873.0
7 24 89.60 50.00 0.00 28.80 2901.8
7 25 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 2933.2
7 26 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 2962.9
7 27 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 2995.4
7 28 96.80 57.20 0.00 36.00 3031.4
7 29 97.00 57.90 0.00 36.45 3067.8
7 30 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 3095.8
7 31 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 3119.3
8 1 84.00 46.90 0.00 24.45 3143.8
8 2 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3164.5
8 3 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 3188.9
8 4 93.20 61.00 0.00 36.10 3225.0
8 5 82.90 52.00 0.00 26.45 3251.5
8 6 80.10 48.00 0.00 23.05 3274.5
8 7 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3296.1
8 8 66.90 53.10 0.26 19.00 3315.1
8 9 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 3336.9
8 10 82.00 59.00 0.00 29.50 3366.4
8 11 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 3397.2
8 12 96.80 57.00 0.00 35.90 3433.1
8 13 93.90 60.80 0.00 36.35 3469.5
8 14 93.20 55.90 0.00 33.55 3503.0
8 15 90.00 53.10 0.00 30.55 3533.6
8 16 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 3564.4
8 17 87.80 48.00 0.00 26.90 3591.3
8 18 102.20 51.80 0.00 36.00 3627.3
8 19 102.20 59.00 0.00 39.60 3666.9
8 20 99.00 57.90 0.00 37.45 3704.3
8 21 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 3731.3
8 22 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 3751.8
8 23 86.00 44.60 0.00 24.30 3776.1
8 24 93.20 51.10 0.00 31.15 3807.3
8 25 96.80 53.60 0.00 34.20 3841.5
8 26 98.60 55.00 0.00 35.80 3877.3
8 27 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 3906.9
8 28 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 3934.4
8 29 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 3960.5
8 30 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 3983.0
8 31 72.00 54.00 0.07 22.00 4005.0
9 1 69.80 51.80 0.01 19.80 4024.8
9 2 73.40 51.10 0.00 21.25 4046.1
9 3 70.00 42.80 0.00 15.40 4061.5
9 4 72.00 44.10 0.02 17.05 4078.5
9 5 73.40 44.10 0.00 17.75 4096.3
9 6 75.90 55.00 0.03 24.45 4120.7
9 7 78.10 55.00 0.00 25.55 4146.3
9 8 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 4169.8
9 9 84.90 44.10 0.00 23.50 4193.3
9 10 89.60 48.20 0.00 27.90 4221.2
9 11 75.20 48.90 0.00 21.05 4242.2
9 12 80.60 42.10 0.00 20.35 4262.6
9 13 82.40 44.60 0.00 22.50 4285.1
9 14 80.60 41.00 0.00 19.80 4304.9
9 15 82.90 42.80 0.00 21.85 4326.7
9 16 84.90 46.40 0.00 24.65 4351.4
9 17 63.00 59.00 0.35 20.00 4371.4
9 18 75.00 50.00 0.01 21.50 4392.9
9 19 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 4408.2
9 20 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 4425.2
9 21 75.90 39.00 0.00 16.65 4441.9
9 22 70.00 44.10 0.01 16.05 4457.9
9 23 64.40 46.90 0.04 14.65 4472.6
9 24 72.00 39.20 0.00 14.78 4487.3
9 25 86.00 44.60 0.00 24.30 4511.6
9 26 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 4540.6
9 27 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 4563.7
9 28 78.10 42.80 0.00 19.45 4583.1
9 29 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 4598.4
9 30 69.80 37.00 0.01 13.00 4611.4
10 1 64.00 51.10 0.43 16.55 4628.0
10 2 59.00 45.00 0.12 11.00 4639.0
10 3 57.90 42.10 0.02 9.00 4648.0
10 4 63.00 51.10 0.38 16.05 4664.0
10 5 64.40 53.10 0.16 17.75 4681.8
10 6 63.00 51.10 0.49 16.05 4697.8
10 7 61.00 53.60 0.39 16.30 4714.1
10 8 68.00 57.00 0.01 21.50 4735.6
10 9 63.00 51.80 0.98 16.40 4752.0
10 10 64.00 41.00 0.00 11.50 4763.5
10 11 68.00 35.10 0.00 11.63 4775.2
10 12 60.80 37.00 0.35 8.61 4783.8
10 13 62.60 51.80 1.45 16.20 4800.0
10 14 66.20 53.60 0.73 18.90 4818.9
10 15 60.80 51.80 0.45 15.30 4834.2
10 16 57.20 50.00 0.67 12.60 4846.8
10 17 62.60 48.00 0.78 14.30 4861.1
10 18 61.00 44.10 0.10 11.55 4872.6
10 19 54.00 44.60 0.19 8.30 4880.9
10 20 63.00 51.10 0.09 16.05 4897.0
10 21 63.00 50.00 0.31 15.50 4912.5
10 22 60.80 46.00 0.05 12.40 4924.9
10 23 63.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 4940.9
10 24 55.90 50.00 0.07 11.95 4952.9
10 25 61.00 48.90 0.45 13.95 4966.8
10 26 62.60 51.80 0.75 16.20 4983.0
10 27 57.20 51.10 0.08 13.15 4996.2
10 28 66.20 48.20 0.02 16.20 5012.4
10 29 63.00 48.90 0.01 14.95 5027.3
10 30 55.40 46.00 0.51 9.70 5037.0
10 31 60.80 46.00 0.08 12.40 5049.4
11 1 62.10 44.10 0.02 12.10 5061.5
11 2 63.00 48.20 0.09 14.60 5076.1
11 3 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 5089.6
11 4 57.00 42.10 0.00 8.55 5098.2
11 5 57.20 48.00 0.99 11.60 5109.8
11 6 62.60 48.00 0.02 14.30 5124.1
11 7 62.10 46.90 0.00 13.50 5137.6
11 8 63.00 42.10 0.00 11.55 5149.1
11 9 66.90 46.90 0.00 15.90 5165.0
11 10 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 5177.0
11 11 55.90 51.10 0.04 12.50 5189.5
11 12 61.00 45.00 0.03 12.00 5201.5
11 13 55.90 44.10 0.11 9.00 5210.5
11 14 57.90 53.60 0.95 14.75 5225.3
11 15 59.00 43.00 0.35 10.00 5235.3
11 16 52.00 35.60 0.14 4.16 5239.4
11 17 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 5243.9
11 18 50.00 37.40 0.04 3.54 5247.4
11 19 57.20 44.10 0.09 9.65 5257.0
11 20 57.20 46.40 0.20 10.80 5267.8
11 21 55.90 41.00 0.01 7.45 5275.3
11 22 52.00 39.00 0.70 4.84 5280.1
11 23 50.00 44.10 0.41 6.05 5286.2
11 24 51.80 46.40 3.19 8.10 5294.3
11 25 51.80 46.00 0.18 7.90 5302.2
11 26 52.00 42.10 0.20 6.05 5308.2
11 27 48.90 35.60 0.21 2.78 5311.0
11 28 54.00 39.20 0.03 5.87 5316.9
11 29 52.00 37.00 0.13 4.40 5321.3
11 30 50.00 37.00 0.06 3.47 5324.8
12 1 46.90 37.00 0.01 2.08 5326.8
12 2 46.90 37.40 0.07 2.13 5329.0
12 3 53.60 37.40 0.32 5.24 5334.2
12 4 48.20 33.80 0.22 2.29 5336.5
12 5 37.90 33.10 0.57 0.00 5336.5
12 6 39.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 5336.5
12 7 39.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 5336.5
12 8 35.60 30.00 0.16 0.00 5336.5
12 9 36.00 32.00 0.71 0.00 5336.5
12 10 46.40 33.80 0.63 1.58 5338.1
12 11 46.90 39.00 0.60 2.39 5340.5
12 12 51.80 35.10 0.38 4.00 5344.5
12 13 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.29 5344.7
12 14 35.60 28.00 0.03 0.00 5344.7
12 15 33.80 26.10 0.00 0.00 5344.7
12 16 36.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 5344.7
12 17 32.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 5344.7
12 18 32.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 5344.7
12 19 46.90 28.40 1.26 1.46 5346.2
12 20 51.80 33.10 0.03 3.74 5350.0
12 21 35.60 26.10 0.00 0.00 5350.0
12 22 36.00 30.20 0.15 0.00 5350.0
12 23 45.00 34.00 0.74 1.07 5351.0
12 24 39.20 28.40 0.03 0.00 5351.0
12 25 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.29 5351.3
12 26 42.10 28.40 0.43 0.13 5351.4
12 27 48.20 36.00 0.22 2.52 5354.0
12 28 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 5354.0
12 29 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 5354.0
12 30 46.40 28.00 0.04 1.28 5355.2
12 31 37.40 26.06 0.02 0.00 5355.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-17-16 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
4-21-16 | 955 | Peak female adult emergence |
4-25-16 | 1000 | Peak egg laying |
5-11-16 | 1279 | Peak egg hatch |
6-21-16 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |