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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 0.3 * START *
1 2 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 2.6
1 3 53.60 44.60 0.10 8.10 10.7
1 4 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 19.7
1 5 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 25.1
1 6 50.00 37.40 0.06 3.54 28.7
1 7 44.60 33.80 0.06 0.92 29.6
1 8 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 30.5
1 9 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 38.6
1 10 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 49.4
1 11 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 56.6
1 12 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 66.5
1 13 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 70.6
1 14 50.00 26.60 0.00 2.47 73.0
1 15 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 75.6
1 16 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 79.8
1 17 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 87.0
1 18 53.60 44.60 0.03 8.10 95.1
1 19 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 102.3
1 20 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 104.0
1 21 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 106.3
1 22 48.20 39.20 0.42 3.05 109.4
1 23 48.20 35.60 0.14 2.48 111.8
1 24 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 114.3
1 25 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 119.2
1 26 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 123.6
1 27 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 125.7
1 28 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 129.2
1 29 50.00 26.60 0.00 2.47 131.6
1 30 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 133.8
1 31 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 137.9
2 1 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 146.9
2 2 45.80 40.30 0.00 2.16 149.0 Px Pn
2 3 41.20 37.40 0.00 0.02 149.0 Px
2 4 28.20 14.70 0.00 0.00 149.0 Px Pn
2 5 37.40 10.50 0.00 0.00 149.0 Pn
2 6 41.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 149.0
2 7 39.20 19.40 0.00 0.00 149.0
2 8 33.80 28.40 0.03 0.00 149.0
2 9 33.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 149.0
2 10 35.60 12.20 0.00 0.00 149.0
2 11 32.00 23.00 0.07 0.00 149.0
2 12 37.40 32.00 0.11 0.00 149.0
2 13 42.80 26.60 0.01 0.26 149.3
2 14 42.80 28.40 0.04 0.27 149.6
2 15 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 152.3
2 16 43.10 33.30 0.00 0.42 152.7 Px Pn
2 17 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 153.6
2 18 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 153.6
2 19 39.20 33.80 0.11 0.00 153.6
2 20 41.00 32.00 0.01 0.00 153.6
2 21 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 154.3
2 22 39.20 32.00 0.20 0.00 154.3
2 23 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 156.0
2 24 46.40 33.80 0.07 1.58 157.6
2 25 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 157.9
2 26 41.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 157.9
2 27 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 158.2
2 28 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 159.7
3 1 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 160.4
3 2 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 162.4
3 3 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 162.6
3 4 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.24 162.9
3 5 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 163.5
3 6 39.20 24.80 0.14 0.00 163.5
3 7 42.80 30.20 0.12 0.29 163.8
3 8 42.80 30.20 0.01 0.29 164.1
3 9 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 164.9
3 10 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 167.6
3 11 50.00 30.20 0.12 2.71 170.3
3 12 46.40 35.60 0.29 1.72 172.1
3 13 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 176.1
3 14 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 182.2
3 15 55.10 40.00 0.00 6.66 188.9 Px Pn
3 16 59.00 38.80 0.00 8.21 197.1 Pn
3 17 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 205.4
3 18 66.20 35.60 0.00 10.88 216.3
3 19 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 233.4
3 20 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 246.9
3 21 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 258.6
3 22 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 272.1
3 23 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 282.9
3 24 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 291.9
3 25 60.80 42.80 0.12 10.80 302.7
3 26 62.60 42.80 0.15 11.70 314.4
3 27 60.80 32.00 0.00 7.61 322.0
3 28 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 336.4
3 29 66.20 37.40 0.00 11.35 347.7
3 30 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 358.7
3 31 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 369.2
4 1 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 380.2
4 2 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 396.4
4 3 59.00 50.00 0.14 13.50 409.9
4 4 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 422.5
4 5 64.40 48.20 0.01 15.30 437.8
4 6 57.20 46.40 0.03 10.80 448.6
4 7 62.60 42.80 0.03 11.70 460.3
4 8 57.20 42.80 0.11 9.00 469.3
4 9 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 481.9
4 10 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 488.2
4 11 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 493.6
4 12 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 506.2
4 13 50.00 42.80 0.04 5.40 511.6
4 14 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 517.0
4 15 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 524.4
4 16 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 532.3
4 17 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 547.6
4 18 62.60 50.00 0.27 15.30 562.9
4 19 62.60 46.40 0.09 13.50 576.4
4 20 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 589.0
4 21 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 597.3
4 22 56.60 43.10 0.00 8.85 606.1 Px Pn
4 23 56.40 46.00 0.00 10.20 616.3 Px Pn
4 24 57.70 40.70 0.00 8.22 624.6 Px Pn
4 25 54.90 36.00 0.00 5.57 630.1 Px Pn
4 26 57.00 37.30 0.00 6.84 637.0 Px Pn
4 27 53.50 36.50 0.00 5.01 642.0 Px Pn
4 28 62.60 33.10 0.00 8.64 650.6 Pn
4 29 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 661.4
4 30 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 674.2
5 1 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 683.8
5 2 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 694.6
5 3 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 708.1
5 4 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 720.7
5 5 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 733.3
5 6 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 749.5
5 7 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 765.7
5 8 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 782.8
5 9 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 804.4
5 10 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 827.8
5 11 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 853.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 12 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 868.3
5 13 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 882.7
5 14 60.80 46.40 0.01 12.60 895.3
5 15 69.80 48.20 0.01 18.00 913.3
5 16 69.80 50.00 0.03 18.90 932.2
5 17 68.00 51.80 0.16 18.90 951.1 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 970.9
5 19 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 990.7
5 20 57.20 50.00 0.09 12.60 1003.3 Peak egg laying
5 21 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1020.4
5 22 71.40 50.00 0.00 19.70 1040.1 Px
5 23 77.00 50.70 0.00 22.85 1063.0 Pn
5 24 62.60 53.60 0.01 17.10 1080.1
5 25 57.20 51.80 0.20 13.50 1093.6
5 26 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1114.3
5 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 1139.5
5 28 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1158.4
5 29 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1177.3
5 30 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1198.9
5 31 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1220.5
6 1 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1239.4
6 2 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1260.1
6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1275.4 Peak egg hatch
6 4 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1292.5
6 5 66.20 44.60 0.15 14.40 1306.9
6 6 69.80 48.20 0.01 18.00 1324.9
6 7 66.20 48.20 0.43 16.20 1341.1
6 8 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 1359.1
6 9 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1377.1
6 10 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1398.7
6 11 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 1422.1
6 12 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 1454.5
6 13 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1476.1
6 14 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1497.7
6 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1518.4
6 16 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1539.1
6 17 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1561.6
6 18 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1581.4
6 19 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1599.4
6 20 71.60 50.00 0.01 19.80 1619.2
6 21 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1641.7
6 22 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1659.7
6 23 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1678.6
6 24 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1698.4
6 25 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1719.1
6 26 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1741.6
6 27 75.20 53.60 0.32 23.40 1765.0
6 28 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1787.5
6 29 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1810.9
6 30 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 1834.3
7 1 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1855.9
7 2 60.80 55.40 0.02 17.10 1873.0
7 3 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1895.5
7 4 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1918.0
7 5 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1938.7
7 6 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1963.0
7 7 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1984.6
7 8 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2008.0
7 9 80.60 51.80 0.02 25.20 2033.2
7 10 73.40 60.80 0.06 26.10 2059.3
7 11 80.60 59.00 0.05 28.80 2088.1 Peak in density large larvae
7 12 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2113.3
7 13 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2141.2
7 14 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2168.2
7 15 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2194.3
7 16 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2220.4
7 17 66.20 57.20 0.21 20.70 2241.1
7 18 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2261.8
7 19 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2284.3
7 20 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 2305.0
7 21 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2332.0
7 22 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2358.1
7 23 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2382.4
7 24 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2407.6
7 25 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2433.7
7 26 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2460.7
7 27 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2486.8
7 28 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2510.2
7 29 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 2534.5
7 30 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2560.6
7 31 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2590.3
8 1 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2621.8
8 2 77.00 53.60 0.17 24.30 2646.1
8 3 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2668.6
8 4 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2693.8
8 5 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2723.5
8 6 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2749.6
8 7 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2773.9
8 8 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2797.3
8 9 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2823.4
8 10 75.20 57.20 0.07 25.20 2848.6
8 11 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 2874.7
8 12 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2904.4
8 13 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2932.3
8 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2961.1
8 15 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2990.8
8 16 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3014.2
8 17 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 3042.1
8 18 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3065.5
8 19 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3090.7
8 20 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 3116.8
8 21 68.00 51.80 0.24 18.90 3135.7
8 22 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3159.1
8 23 68.00 50.00 0.05 18.00 3177.1
8 24 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3198.7
8 25 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3223.0
8 26 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 3242.8
8 27 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3267.1
8 28 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3294.1
8 29 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3321.1
8 30 80.60 59.00 0.18 28.80 3349.9
8 31 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3379.6
9 1 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 3407.5
9 2 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3431.8
9 3 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3457.0
9 4 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3481.3
9 5 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3504.7
9 6 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3531.7
9 7 73.40 55.40 0.47 23.40 3555.1
9 8 71.60 57.20 0.24 23.40 3578.5
9 9 68.00 59.00 1.39 22.50 3601.0
9 10 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3623.5
9 11 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3645.1
9 12 75.20 55.40 0.37 24.30 3669.4
9 13 71.60 57.20 0.23 23.40 3692.8
9 14 68.00 59.00 0.11 22.50 3715.3
9 15 62.60 55.40 0.59 18.00 3733.3
9 16 71.60 53.60 0.03 21.60 3754.9
9 17 66.20 55.40 0.14 19.80 3774.7
9 18 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 3791.8
9 19 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 3808.0
9 20 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3831.4
9 21 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3853.0
9 22 64.40 57.20 0.24 19.80 3872.8
9 23 59.00 55.40 0.11 16.20 3889.0
9 24 73.40 50.00 0.01 20.70 3909.7
9 25 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 3928.6
9 26 66.20 51.80 0.41 18.00 3946.6
9 27 62.60 42.80 0.22 11.70 3958.3
9 28 66.20 42.80 0.01 13.50 3971.8
9 29 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 3982.6
9 30 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 3992.7
10 1 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 4003.1
10 2 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 4015.0
10 3 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 4031.2
10 4 59.00 48.20 0.08 12.60 4043.8
10 5 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 4056.4
10 6 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 4067.2
10 7 59.00 50.00 0.37 13.50 4080.7
10 8 53.60 37.40 0.01 5.24 4086.0
10 9 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 4090.9
10 10 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 4096.9
10 11 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 4105.2
10 12 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 4112.4
10 13 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 4122.3
10 14 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 4132.4
10 15 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 4143.2
10 16 62.60 50.00 0.21 15.30 4158.5
10 17 59.00 44.60 0.44 10.80 4169.3
10 18 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 4177.4
10 19 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 4182.8
10 20 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 4190.9
10 21 55.40 48.20 1.21 10.80 4201.7
10 22 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 4214.3
10 23 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 4222.4
10 24 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 4233.2
10 25 60.80 46.40 0.04 12.60 4245.8
10 26 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 4254.1
10 27 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 4259.9
10 28 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 4263.5
10 29 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 4266.9
10 30 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 4270.3
10 31 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 4275.5
11 1 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 4279.9
11 2 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 4285.1
11 3 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 4292.0
11 4 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 4299.5
11 5 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 4304.9
11 6 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 4310.1
11 7 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 4315.8
11 8 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 4322.1
11 9 53.60 48.20 0.06 9.90 4332.0
11 10 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 4341.0
11 11 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 4350.0
11 12 51.80 44.60 0.11 7.20 4357.2
11 13 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 4365.3
11 14 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 4372.5
11 15 59.00 44.60 0.22 10.80 4383.3
11 16 57.20 44.60 0.05 9.90 4393.2
11 17 57.20 42.80 0.86 9.00 4402.2
11 18 50.00 42.80 0.52 5.40 4407.6
11 19 53.60 39.20 0.12 5.67 4413.3
11 20 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 4418.7
11 21 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 4422.3
11 22 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 4423.6
11 23 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 4428.0
11 24 55.40 41.00 0.06 7.20 4435.2
11 25 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 4438.0
11 26 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 4438.9
11 27 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 4440.3
11 28 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 4441.0
11 29 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.24 4441.3
11 30 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 4442.0
12 1 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 4442.2
12 2 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 4444.4
12 3 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 4451.6
12 4 53.60 44.60 0.02 8.10 4459.7
12 5 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 4462.5
12 6 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 4467.9
12 7 50.00 42.80 0.31 5.40 4473.3
12 8 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 4477.2
12 9 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 4477.2
12 10 44.60 35.60 0.06 1.01 4478.2
12 11 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 4482.1
12 12 50.00 42.80 0.21 5.40 4487.5
12 13 50.00 39.20 0.05 3.92 4491.4
12 14 44.60 39.20 0.03 1.36 4492.8
12 15 44.60 33.80 0.03 0.92 4493.7
12 16 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 4494.0
12 17 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 4496.8
12 18 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 4503.1
12 19 50.00 42.80 0.12 5.40 4508.5
12 20 44.60 41.00 0.78 1.80 4510.3
12 21 44.60 37.40 0.39 1.15 4511.4
12 22 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 4512.5
12 23 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 4514.7
12 24 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 4515.6
12 25 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 4517.6
12 26 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 4517.9
12 27 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 4519.0
12 28 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 4520.9
12 29 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 4527.2
12 30 48.20 42.80 0.06 4.50 4531.7
12 31 51.80 46.40 0.42 8.10 4539.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-11-19 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-17-19 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-20-19 | 1003 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-3-19 | 1275 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-11-19 | 2088 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3768644)
