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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 53.60 44.10 0.00 7.85 7.9 * START *
1 2 50.00 37.40 0.21 3.54 11.4
1 3 61.00 48.00 0.09 13.50 24.9
1 4 48.20 43.00 0.01 4.60 29.5
1 5 48.90 42.10 0.20 4.50 34.0
1 6 43.00 37.40 1.44 0.53 34.5
1 7 53.60 44.60 0.13 8.10 42.6
1 8 46.40 32.00 0.07 1.46 44.1
1 9 42.80 33.10 0.02 0.34 44.4
1 10 46.40 35.60 0.18 1.72 46.1
1 11 46.40 37.40 0.25 1.91 48.0
1 12 43.00 23.00 0.24 0.27 48.3
1 13 23.00 17.60 0.01 0.00 48.3
1 14 19.40 15.10 0.14 0.00 48.3
1 15 28.40 15.10 0.01 0.00 48.3
1 16 33.80 19.00 0.06 0.00 48.3
1 17 32.00 15.10 0.01 0.00 48.3
1 18 50.00 30.20 0.01 2.71 51.0
1 19 46.40 35.10 0.00 1.68 52.7
1 20 46.40 37.40 0.06 1.91 54.6
1 21 52.00 41.00 0.27 5.50 60.1
1 22 48.90 42.10 0.54 4.50 64.6
1 23 55.90 51.80 0.28 12.85 77.5
1 24 55.40 41.00 0.21 7.20 84.7
1 25 48.20 39.00 0.09 3.00 87.7
1 26 53.60 42.10 0.08 6.85 94.5
1 27 53.10 42.10 0.53 6.60 101.1
1 28 48.20 41.00 0.13 3.60 104.7
1 29 51.80 39.00 0.21 4.74 109.5
1 30 52.00 33.10 0.37 3.82 113.3
1 31 57.90 50.00 1.46 12.95 126.2
2 1 54.00 35.10 0.18 5.00 131.2
2 2 43.00 33.10 0.14 0.39 131.6
2 3 42.80 30.00 0.44 0.29 131.9
2 4 37.40 28.40 0.65 0.00 131.9
2 5 39.90 33.80 0.67 0.00 131.9
2 6 43.00 39.00 0.37 0.64 132.6
2 7 50.00 39.00 0.56 3.87 136.4
2 8 46.90 35.60 0.80 1.93 138.3
2 9 44.60 28.00 0.00 0.73 139.1
2 10 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 140.6
2 11 46.90 41.00 0.08 2.95 143.6
2 12 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 147.6
2 13 46.40 39.20 0.08 2.19 149.8
2 14 48.90 41.00 0.06 3.95 153.8
2 15 46.90 41.00 0.07 2.95 156.7
2 16 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 158.5
2 17 45.00 30.90 0.15 0.93 159.4
2 18 46.90 27.00 0.00 1.41 160.8
2 19 51.80 26.10 0.00 3.12 163.9
2 20 54.00 24.80 0.00 3.88 167.8
2 21 50.00 28.00 0.03 2.56 170.4
2 22 46.90 35.60 0.12 1.93 172.3
2 23 46.90 39.00 0.25 2.39 174.7
2 24 46.90 35.10 0.00 1.88 176.5
2 25 44.60 32.00 0.01 0.84 177.4
2 26 51.80 37.00 0.06 4.31 181.7
2 27 53.60 35.10 0.01 4.81 186.5
2 28 50.00 33.10 0.18 2.97 189.5
2 29 50.00 35.10 0.13 3.20 192.7
3 1 44.60 35.60 0.06 1.01 193.7
3 2 48.20 39.00 0.57 3.00 196.7
3 3 48.90 44.60 0.06 5.75 202.4
3 4 48.90 37.40 0.00 3.03 205.5
3 5 52.00 39.00 0.27 4.84 210.3
3 6 48.90 37.00 0.00 2.97 213.3
3 7 46.40 33.80 0.11 1.58 214.9
3 8 46.90 28.90 0.11 1.49 216.4
3 9 48.90 26.10 0.00 2.05 218.4
3 10 50.00 33.80 0.20 3.04 221.4
3 11 50.00 39.20 0.03 3.92 225.4
3 12 48.00 33.80 0.00 2.21 227.6
3 13 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 227.9
3 14 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 227.9
3 15 36.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 227.9
3 16 57.90 30.90 0.00 6.13 234.0
3 17 54.00 26.60 0.00 4.02 238.0
3 18 54.00 26.60 0.00 4.02 242.1
3 19 57.90 30.00 0.00 6.01 248.1
3 20 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 254.4
3 21 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 259.3
3 22 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 263.0
3 23 52.00 35.10 0.30 4.09 267.1
3 24 48.20 33.10 1.08 2.23 269.3
3 25 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 273.2
3 26 46.90 42.10 0.06 3.50 276.7
3 27 50.00 42.80 0.07 5.40 282.1
3 28 53.60 46.40 0.60 9.00 291.1
3 29 54.00 44.60 0.19 8.30 299.4
3 30 52.00 42.10 0.21 6.05 305.4
3 31 48.90 39.00 0.15 3.34 308.7
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 312.3
4 2 48.20 32.00 0.01 2.14 314.4
4 3 46.00 37.00 0.12 1.69 316.1
4 4 53.10 35.60 0.01 4.67 320.8
4 5 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 325.6
4 6 57.90 30.20 0.00 6.04 331.7
4 7 55.40 37.00 0.00 6.01 337.7
4 8 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 345.7
4 9 63.00 35.10 0.00 9.23 354.9
4 10 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 366.5
4 11 61.00 37.00 0.02 8.70 375.2
4 12 61.00 35.10 0.00 8.27 383.4
4 13 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 391.6
4 14 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 403.6
4 15 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 415.5
4 16 68.00 37.00 0.00 12.12 427.7
4 17 62.60 37.00 0.00 9.48 437.1
4 18 61.00 44.60 0.00 11.80 448.9
4 19 59.00 44.10 0.00 10.55 459.5
4 20 63.00 39.90 0.00 10.55 470.0
4 21 55.40 51.10 0.01 12.25 482.3
4 22 52.00 48.20 0.67 9.10 491.4
4 23 57.90 45.00 0.00 10.45 501.8
4 24 61.00 41.00 0.01 10.00 511.8
4 25 61.00 50.00 0.08 14.50 526.3
4 26 60.80 45.00 0.19 11.90 538.2
4 27 61.00 48.90 0.12 13.95 552.2
4 28 59.00 44.10 0.00 10.55 562.7
4 29 62.60 48.00 0.19 14.30 577.0
4 30 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 590.5
5 1 64.90 44.60 0.01 13.75 604.3
5 2 61.00 44.10 0.46 11.55 615.8
5 3 55.90 42.80 0.02 8.35 624.2
5 4 64.40 37.00 0.00 10.36 634.5
5 5 70.00 48.20 0.08 18.10 652.6
5 6 61.00 46.90 0.06 12.95 665.6
5 7 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 676.6
5 8 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 696.5
5 9 82.40 44.60 0.00 22.50 719.0
5 10 81.00 46.90 0.00 22.95 742.0
5 11 75.90 51.10 0.42 22.50 764.5
5 12 68.00 51.80 0.30 18.90 783.4
5 13 64.40 50.00 0.01 16.20 799.6
5 14 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 813.1
5 15 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 829.3
5 16 63.00 48.20 0.37 14.60 843.9
5 17 66.20 48.00 0.10 16.10 860.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 66.90 44.10 0.00 14.50 874.5
5 19 64.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 892.2
5 20 61.00 51.10 0.00 15.05 907.3
5 21 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 920.8
5 22 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 935.2
5 23 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 949.6
5 24 66.90 50.00 0.03 17.45 967.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 25 57.20 53.60 0.43 14.40 981.4
5 26 66.20 48.00 0.01 16.10 997.5
5 27 72.00 39.20 0.00 14.78 1012.3 Peak egg laying
5 28 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 1033.2
5 29 71.60 55.00 0.00 22.30 1055.5
5 30 57.20 51.80 0.78 13.50 1069.0
5 31 62.60 48.90 0.00 14.75 1083.8
6 1 64.90 44.60 0.00 13.75 1097.5
6 2 57.90 46.40 0.06 11.15 1108.7
6 3 63.00 46.40 0.00 13.70 1122.4
6 4 64.90 48.90 0.00 15.90 1138.3
6 5 66.90 46.40 0.02 15.65 1153.9
6 6 64.00 51.10 0.10 16.55 1170.5
6 7 64.90 50.00 0.20 16.45 1186.9
6 8 63.00 51.80 0.06 16.40 1203.3
6 9 63.00 51.10 0.41 16.05 1219.4
6 10 69.80 53.10 0.01 20.45 1239.8
6 11 68.00 55.40 0.11 20.70 1260.5
6 12 59.00 53.10 0.56 15.05 1275.6 Peak egg hatch
6 13 62.60 51.80 0.03 16.20 1291.8
6 14 64.00 51.80 0.00 16.90 1308.7
6 15 57.90 51.80 0.28 13.85 1322.5
6 16 64.90 51.10 0.00 17.00 1339.5
6 17 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 1359.1
6 18 73.40 51.10 0.00 21.25 1380.3
6 19 75.20 51.80 0.13 22.50 1402.8
6 20 70.00 59.00 0.08 23.50 1426.3
6 21 66.20 55.00 0.28 19.60 1445.9
6 22 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 1466.0
6 23 78.80 55.00 0.01 25.90 1491.9
6 24 71.60 57.00 0.02 23.30 1515.2
6 25 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 1539.8
6 26 68.00 57.00 0.00 21.50 1561.3
6 27 64.00 53.60 0.05 17.80 1579.1
6 28 70.00 51.10 0.08 19.55 1598.7
6 29 71.60 55.00 0.00 22.30 1621.0
6 30 64.40 55.00 0.02 18.70 1639.7
7 1 57.90 53.60 0.27 14.75 1654.4
7 2 62.60 55.00 0.00 17.80 1672.2
7 3 57.90 55.00 0.31 15.45 1687.7
7 4 70.00 51.10 0.34 19.55 1707.2
7 5 71.60 46.90 0.00 18.25 1725.5
7 6 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 1744.5
7 7 64.90 57.00 0.00 19.95 1764.4
7 8 69.80 57.00 0.06 22.40 1786.8
7 9 66.00 57.00 0.20 20.50 1807.3
7 10 71.60 54.00 0.00 21.80 1829.1
7 11 64.90 51.80 0.01 17.35 1846.5
7 12 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1866.6
7 13 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 1886.6
7 14 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 1907.6
7 15 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 1933.6
7 16 73.40 60.10 0.00 25.75 1959.3
7 17 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 1981.9
7 18 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2007.4
7 19 77.00 60.10 0.00 27.55 2034.9
7 20 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 2062.7
7 21 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 2089.4 Peak in density large larvae
7 22 69.80 60.10 0.00 23.95 2113.3
7 23 66.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 2134.9
7 24 66.90 53.10 0.01 19.00 2153.9
7 25 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 2173.7
7 26 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 2198.2
7 27 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 2228.7
7 28 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 2254.3
7 29 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 2280.3
7 30 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2309.1
7 31 73.40 62.10 0.00 26.75 2335.8
8 1 73.40 60.10 0.00 25.75 2361.6
8 2 73.90 55.40 0.00 23.65 2385.2
8 3 75.90 60.80 0.00 27.35 2412.6
8 4 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2440.5
8 5 73.00 59.00 0.00 25.00 2465.5
8 6 70.00 57.00 0.43 22.50 2488.0
8 7 69.80 57.20 0.05 22.50 2510.5
8 8 70.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 2531.5
8 9 73.90 53.60 0.00 22.75 2554.2
8 10 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 2576.1
8 11 69.10 50.00 0.00 18.55 2594.6
8 12 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 2613.5
8 13 70.00 46.00 0.00 17.00 2630.5
8 14 75.90 46.90 0.00 20.40 2650.9
8 15 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 2676.9
8 16 90.00 54.00 0.00 31.00 2707.9
8 17 79.00 62.10 0.00 29.55 2737.5
8 18 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2762.7
8 19 75.90 53.10 0.03 23.50 2786.2
8 20 81.00 62.10 0.10 30.55 2816.7
8 21 71.60 61.00 0.60 25.30 2842.0
8 22 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 2863.6
8 23 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 2881.6
8 24 72.00 53.60 0.02 21.80 2903.4
8 25 72.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 2924.3
8 26 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 2944.8
8 27 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 2968.3
8 28 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 2986.3
8 29 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 3007.1
8 30 69.80 50.00 0.05 18.90 3026.0
8 31 66.90 52.00 0.00 18.45 3044.4
9 1 73.90 55.90 0.00 23.90 3068.3
9 2 73.40 54.00 0.00 22.70 3091.0
9 3 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 3115.0
9 4 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3139.3
9 5 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 3160.7
9 6 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 3182.5
9 7 84.00 53.10 0.00 27.55 3210.1
9 8 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 3232.6
9 9 84.00 46.40 0.00 24.20 3256.8
9 10 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 3283.8
9 11 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 3305.3
9 12 62.10 53.10 0.00 16.60 3321.9
9 13 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 3337.2
9 14 69.10 50.00 0.08 18.55 3355.7
9 15 79.00 55.40 0.01 26.20 3381.9
9 16 71.10 55.40 0.00 22.25 3404.2
9 17 70.00 55.40 0.00 21.70 3425.9
9 18 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 3443.9
9 19 64.40 59.00 0.00 20.70 3464.6
9 20 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 3484.1
9 21 69.80 48.00 0.00 17.90 3502.0
9 22 68.00 57.00 0.01 21.50 3523.5
9 23 68.00 55.40 0.77 20.70 3544.2
9 24 64.40 57.20 0.54 19.80 3564.0
9 25 64.90 55.40 0.30 19.15 3583.2
9 26 57.90 53.60 0.48 14.75 3597.9
9 27 66.90 48.90 0.00 16.90 3614.8
9 28 72.00 46.40 0.00 18.20 3633.0
9 29 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 3654.0
9 30 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 3674.9
10 1 71.60 48.90 0.00 19.25 3694.2
10 2 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 3713.0
10 3 57.90 51.10 0.00 13.50 3726.5
10 4 62.60 57.00 0.00 18.80 3745.3
10 5 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 3761.7
10 6 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 3777.4
10 7 61.00 48.20 0.00 13.60 3791.0
10 8 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 3808.1
10 9 64.90 55.40 1.38 19.15 3827.2
10 10 60.10 51.80 0.25 14.95 3842.2
10 11 55.00 48.20 0.91 10.60 3852.8
10 12 57.20 48.00 0.31 11.60 3864.4
10 13 61.00 46.40 0.09 12.70 3877.1
10 14 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 3888.6
10 15 57.00 42.80 0.04 8.90 3897.5
10 16 60.80 51.10 0.17 14.95 3912.4
10 17 57.20 51.10 0.44 13.15 3925.6
10 18 55.90 48.00 0.23 10.95 3936.5
10 19 55.40 46.90 0.00 10.15 3946.7
10 20 57.20 46.00 0.01 10.60 3957.3
10 21 54.00 36.00 0.10 5.15 3962.4
10 22 52.00 33.10 0.00 3.82 3966.3
10 23 44.60 37.40 0.37 1.15 3967.4
10 24 45.00 33.80 0.00 1.06 3968.5
10 25 45.00 28.90 0.05 0.87 3969.3
10 26 46.40 28.40 0.40 1.30 3970.6
10 27 55.90 42.10 0.00 8.00 3978.6
10 28 57.90 51.80 0.00 13.85 3992.5
10 29 60.80 51.10 0.07 14.95 4007.4
10 30 57.20 39.90 0.42 7.67 4015.1
10 31 51.10 33.80 0.00 3.52 4018.6
11 1 57.90 33.10 0.00 6.46 4025.1
11 2 60.80 32.00 0.00 7.61 4032.7
11 3 60.80 41.00 1.47 9.90 4042.6
11 4 63.00 55.40 0.12 18.20 4060.8
11 5 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 4071.6
11 6 46.00 42.80 0.00 3.40 4075.0
11 7 48.90 33.10 0.01 2.51 4077.5
11 8 48.00 32.00 0.00 2.07 4079.6
11 9 44.10 26.10 0.17 0.56 4080.1
11 10 43.00 32.00 0.01 0.37 4080.5
11 11 43.00 28.00 0.00 0.31 4080.8
11 12 48.20 44.60 0.54 5.40 4086.2
11 13 48.20 44.10 0.17 5.15 4091.3
11 14 48.20 41.00 0.11 3.60 4094.9
11 15 52.00 43.00 0.25 6.50 4101.4
11 16 45.00 43.00 0.64 3.00 4104.4
11 17 62.10 41.00 0.50 10.55 4115.0
11 18 50.00 45.00 0.59 6.50 4121.5
11 19 48.90 44.10 0.01 5.50 4127.0
11 20 51.80 46.40 0.20 8.10 4135.1
11 21 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 4138.3
11 22 46.90 34.00 0.01 1.79 4140.1
11 23 46.40 42.10 0.11 3.25 4143.3
11 24 51.80 42.10 0.44 5.95 4149.3
11 25 46.40 42.10 0.50 3.25 4152.5
11 26 48.90 42.80 0.04 4.85 4157.4
11 27 54.00 46.90 0.13 9.45 4166.8
11 28 48.90 33.10 0.00 2.51 4169.3
11 29 48.00 30.00 0.07 1.94 4171.3
11 30 52.00 36.00 0.15 4.23 4175.5
12 1 48.00 30.20 0.00 1.95 4177.5
12 2 39.90 28.40 0.00 0.00 4177.5
12 3 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 4179.0
12 4 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 4182.5
12 5 53.10 28.00 0.00 3.77 4186.3
12 6 55.90 50.00 0.00 11.95 4198.2
12 7 59.00 45.00 0.64 11.00 4209.2
12 8 52.00 46.40 0.60 8.20 4217.4
12 9 50.00 34.00 0.07 3.07 4220.5
12 10 45.00 33.10 0.15 1.02 4221.5
12 11 46.40 30.20 0.05 1.37 4222.9
12 12 37.40 28.00 0.00 0.00 4222.9
12 13 43.00 36.00 0.33 0.47 4223.3
12 14 48.90 39.00 0.06 3.34 4226.7
12 15 43.90 39.20 0.21 1.04 4227.7 Vx Vn
12 16 52.00 44.60 0.58 7.30 4235.0
12 17 48.90 44.60 0.20 5.75 4240.8
12 18 50.00 42.80 0.17 5.40 4246.2
12 19 52.00 46.00 0.21 8.00 4254.2
12 20 55.00 39.90 0.01 6.58 4260.8
12 21 42.80 33.10 1.82 0.34 4261.1
12 22 39.00 28.00 0.05 0.00 4261.1
12 23 37.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 4261.1
12 24 37.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 4261.1
12 25 41.00 30.90 0.23 0.00 4261.1
12 26 51.10 42.10 0.21 5.60 4266.7
12 27 48.00 39.90 0.13 3.12 4269.8
12 28 48.00 30.90 0.00 1.99 4271.8
12 29 41.00 32.00 0.62 0.00 4271.8
12 30 50.00 39.20 2.32 3.92 4275.7
12 31 46.40 40.70 0.00 2.58 4278.3 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-17-20 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-24-20 | 967 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-27-20 | 1012 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-12-20 | 1276 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-21-20 | 2089 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1809195)
