Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 41.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 42.80 26.10 0.03 0.25 0.3 1 5 55.90 37.40 0.22 6.34 6.6 1 6 48.20 42.10 0.73 4.15 10.7 1 7 48.00 39.00 0.43 2.91 13.7 1 8 46.40 39.00 0.41 2.15 15.8 1 9 46.40 41.00 0.06 2.70 18.5 1 10 45.00 39.00 0.05 1.51 20.0 1 11 39.20 33.80 0.94 0.00 20.0 1 12 37.90 33.80 0.44 0.00 20.0 1 13 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 21.7 1 14 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 26.3 1 15 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 31.1 1 16 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 40.1 1 17 62.60 42.80 0.11 11.70 51.8 1 18 50.00 44.60 0.01 6.30 58.1 1 19 48.20 44.10 0.02 5.15 63.3 1 20 50.00 42.10 0.02 5.05 68.3 1 21 51.80 42.10 0.17 5.95 74.3 1 22 46.40 41.00 0.05 2.70 77.0 1 23 48.20 37.40 0.30 2.72 79.7 1 24 51.80 42.10 0.18 5.95 85.6 1 25 43.00 37.00 0.13 0.51 86.1 1 26 43.00 37.90 0.18 0.56 86.7 1 27 48.90 37.00 0.10 2.97 89.7 1 28 55.90 39.20 0.38 6.80 96.5 1 29 55.90 44.10 0.51 9.00 105.5 1 30 46.40 41.00 0.13 2.70 108.2 1 31 44.60 39.00 0.13 1.33 109.5 2 1 45.00 39.90 0.39 1.67 111.2 2 2 52.00 39.20 0.52 4.89 116.1 2 3 48.90 46.40 0.68 6.65 122.7 2 4 53.60 48.00 0.55 9.80 132.5 2 5 48.20 44.60 0.02 5.40 137.9 2 6 46.90 44.10 0.14 4.50 142.4 2 7 52.00 46.00 0.04 8.00 150.4 2 8 55.40 43.00 0.01 8.20 158.6 2 9 45.00 33.80 0.01 1.06 159.7 2 10 44.10 28.40 0.00 0.60 160.3 2 11 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 161.2 2 12 43.00 26.10 0.00 0.30 161.5 2 13 42.80 24.10 0.25 0.24 161.7 2 14 42.80 33.10 0.08 0.34 162.0 2 15 43.00 33.10 0.20 0.39 162.4 2 16 46.40 39.00 0.31 2.15 164.6 2 17 48.90 35.10 0.61 2.72 167.3 2 18 36.00 26.60 0.15 0.00 167.3 2 19 36.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 167.3 2 20 37.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 167.3 2 21 34.00 21.00 0.01 0.00 167.3 2 22 39.90 21.90 0.00 0.00 167.3 2 23 35.60 19.00 0.16 0.00 167.3 2 24 43.00 30.20 0.10 0.34 167.6 2 25 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 169.2 2 26 44.10 32.00 0.09 0.68 169.8 2 27 46.40 37.40 0.02 1.91 171.8 2 28 48.90 39.00 0.04 3.34 175.1 3 1 50.00 36.00 0.01 3.32 178.4 3 2 43.00 35.10 0.01 0.44 178.9 3 3 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 180.8 3 4 46.90 28.40 0.02 1.46 182.3 3 5 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 183.2 3 6 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 187.1 3 7 48.90 30.20 0.07 2.29 189.4 3 8 50.00 37.40 0.29 3.54 193.0 3 9 50.00 32.00 0.50 2.86 195.8 3 10 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 200.8 3 11 62.60 28.40 0.00 7.88 208.7 3 12 70.00 32.00 0.00 11.91 220.6 3 13 60.80 45.00 0.58 11.90 232.5 3 14 46.90 39.20 0.19 2.43 234.9 3 15 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 240.1 3 16 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 245.2 3 17 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 248.7 3 18 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 252.8 3 19 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 256.7 3 20 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 260.2 3 21 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 267.6 3 22 51.80 35.60 0.72 4.07 271.7 3 23 46.90 35.60 0.01 1.93 273.6 3 24 46.90 30.90 0.14 1.58 275.2 3 25 48.90 28.40 0.00 2.17 277.4 3 26 46.40 42.10 0.79 3.25 280.6 3 27 55.40 44.60 0.25 9.00 289.6 3 28 51.80 44.10 0.00 6.95 296.6 3 29 48.90 44.10 0.17 5.50 302.1 3 30 55.40 39.00 0.13 6.50 308.6 3 31 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 314.9 4 1 50.00 35.10 0.06 3.20 318.1 4 2 50.00 33.10 0.00 2.97 321.0 4 3 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 324.4 4 4 48.20 39.20 0.47 3.05 327.4 4 5 48.90 42.10 0.70 4.50 331.9 4 6 62.60 46.00 0.13 13.30 345.2 4 7 57.20 48.20 0.13 11.70 356.9 4 8 53.60 48.00 0.22 9.80 366.7 4 9 59.00 46.40 0.51 11.70 378.4 4 10 57.90 44.60 0.09 10.25 388.7 4 11 55.40 43.00 0.26 8.20 396.9 4 12 51.80 42.10 0.01 5.95 402.8 4 13 53.60 44.10 0.26 7.85 410.7 4 14 51.80 44.10 0.18 6.95 417.6 4 15 54.00 42.80 0.15 7.40 425.0 4 16 46.40 42.80 0.30 3.60 428.6 4 17 52.00 44.60 0.03 7.30 435.9 4 18 57.90 39.00 0.11 7.73 443.6 4 19 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 451.1 4 20 57.90 42.10 0.06 9.00 460.1 4 21 55.90 42.10 0.01 8.00 468.1 4 22 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 474.9 4 23 66.20 34.00 0.00 10.52 485.5 4 24 69.80 36.00 0.00 12.73 498.2 4 25 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 511.9 4 26 75.00 42.10 0.00 17.55 529.5 4 27 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 540.6 4 28 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 550.5 4 29 57.20 48.20 0.01 11.70 562.2 4 30 57.90 48.20 0.01 12.05 574.3 5 1 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 586.0 5 2 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 599.1 5 3 71.60 44.10 0.00 16.85 616.0 5 4 59.00 45.00 0.00 11.00 627.0 5 5 66.90 41.00 0.02 12.95 639.9 5 6 73.40 50.00 0.22 20.70 660.6 5 7 66.20 51.80 0.02 18.00 678.6 5 8 72.00 46.40 0.08 18.20 696.8 5 9 66.20 51.10 0.32 17.65 714.5 5 10 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 728.0 5 11 64.90 48.00 0.00 15.45 743.4 5 12 71.60 44.10 0.00 16.85 760.3 5 13 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 781.2 5 14 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 806.4 5 15 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 825.4 5 16 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 843.4 5 17 63.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 860.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 18 63.00 53.60 0.00 17.30 877.8 5 19 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 899.4 5 20 63.00 52.00 0.00 16.50 915.9 5 21 68.00 46.00 0.00 16.00 931.9 5 22 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 951.7 peak female adult emergence 5 23 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 971.5 5 24 64.40 55.40 0.01 18.90 990.4 5 25 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1007.5 peak egg laying 5 26 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 1023.0 5 27 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1041.0 5 28 66.90 52.00 0.00 18.45 1059.4 5 29 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1074.7 5 30 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1089.1 5 31 62.60 46.00 0.00 13.30 1102.4 6 1 63.00 51.80 0.01 16.40 1118.8 6 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 1139.4 6 3 57.90 50.00 0.13 12.95 1152.3 6 4 62.60 45.00 0.00 12.80 1165.1 6 5 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 1179.9 6 6 69.10 46.00 0.00 16.55 1196.4 6 7 64.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 1214.2 6 8 63.00 51.10 0.32 16.05 1230.2 6 9 62.60 48.90 0.23 14.75 1245.0 6 10 62.60 48.20 0.01 14.40 1259.4 6 11 64.40 51.10 0.00 16.75 1276.1 peak egg hatch 6 12 66.20 42.80 0.02 13.50 1289.6 6 13 64.40 53.10 0.05 17.75 1307.4 6 14 66.20 48.90 0.00 16.55 1323.9 6 15 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1339.6 6 16 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 1364.4 6 17 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1388.5 6 18 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 1415.5 6 19 75.90 60.80 0.00 27.35 1442.8 6 20 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 1471.5 6 21 66.90 57.00 0.01 20.95 1492.5 6 22 64.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 1512.2 6 23 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 1535.5 6 24 72.00 53.60 0.17 21.80 1557.3 6 25 63.00 53.60 0.08 17.30 1574.6 6 26 71.00 53.60 0.21 21.30 1595.9 Px 6 27 71.50 46.20 0.00 17.85 1613.7 Px Pn 6 28 64.60 54.50 0.00 18.55 1632.3 Px Pn 6 29 64.40 57.00 0.06 19.70 1652.0 6 30 61.00 57.20 0.05 18.10 1670.1 7 1 66.90 55.90 0.07 20.40 1690.5 7 2 66.90 52.00 0.03 18.45 1708.9 7 3 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 1727.7 7 4 86.00 48.90 0.00 26.45 1754.2 7 5 78.80 62.10 0.00 29.45 1783.6 7 6 75.90 57.00 0.06 25.45 1809.1 7 7 72.00 55.00 0.41 22.50 1831.6 7 8 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1852.3 7 9 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1872.4 7 10 72.00 57.20 0.00 23.60 1896.0 7 11 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 1919.8 7 12 78.10 57.00 0.00 26.55 1946.3 7 13 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 1972.3 7 14 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 1999.1 7 15 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 2027.3 7 16 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 2055.3 7 17 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 2080.6 peak in density large larvae 7 18 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2104.9 7 19 66.90 57.20 0.00 21.05 2125.9 7 20 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 2147.5 7 21 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 2168.4 7 22 82.00 48.00 0.00 24.00 2192.4 7 23 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2220.3 7 24 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 2249.3 7 25 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 2280.2 7 26 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 2308.9 7 27 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2336.8 7 28 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 2364.8 7 29 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2397.3 7 30 82.90 62.10 0.00 31.50 2428.8 7 31 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 2452.3 8 1 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2475.7 8 2 68.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 2498.2 8 3 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 2520.8 8 4 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2544.9 8 5 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2572.9 8 6 78.10 59.00 0.00 27.55 2600.4 8 7 87.10 57.20 0.00 31.15 2631.6 8 8 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 2663.9 8 9 88.00 64.00 0.00 35.00 2698.9 8 10 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 2727.6 8 11 69.10 62.60 0.07 24.85 2752.4 8 12 73.00 54.00 0.00 22.50 2774.9 8 13 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 2797.4 8 14 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 2822.5 8 15 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 2851.2 8 16 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 2872.6 8 17 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 2894.1 8 18 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2914.8 8 19 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 2937.0 8 20 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 2965.5 8 21 84.90 54.00 0.00 28.45 2993.9 8 22 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 3019.0 8 23 66.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 3039.9 8 24 69.80 52.00 0.00 19.90 3059.8 8 25 61.00 53.60 0.03 16.30 3076.1 8 26 63.00 53.60 0.14 17.30 3093.4 8 27 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 3115.9 8 28 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 3137.4 8 29 69.10 53.60 0.03 20.35 3157.8 8 30 70.00 55.40 0.00 21.70 3179.5 8 31 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 3199.3 9 1 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 3218.8 9 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 3239.4 9 3 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 3258.4 9 4 73.90 44.10 0.00 18.00 3276.4 9 5 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 3297.9 9 6 78.80 48.00 0.00 22.40 3320.3 9 7 66.90 57.00 0.33 20.95 3341.2 9 8 66.20 53.60 0.03 18.90 3360.1 9 9 64.90 55.00 0.53 18.95 3379.1 9 10 66.90 53.10 0.01 19.00 3398.1 9 11 68.00 53.60 0.13 19.80 3417.9 9 12 64.40 53.10 0.04 17.75 3435.6 9 13 66.00 52.00 0.00 18.00 3453.6 9 14 64.40 51.10 0.25 16.75 3470.4 9 15 64.40 51.10 0.05 16.75 3487.1 9 16 62.60 55.00 0.34 17.80 3504.9 9 17 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 3519.1 9 18 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 3532.6 9 19 64.90 44.10 0.05 13.50 3546.1 9 20 60.80 53.10 0.19 15.95 3562.1 9 21 64.90 53.60 0.12 18.25 3580.3 9 22 64.40 55.40 0.14 18.90 3599.2 9 23 60.80 46.00 0.07 12.40 3611.6 9 24 64.90 42.80 0.00 12.85 3624.5 9 25 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 3636.4 9 26 64.90 46.00 0.00 14.45 3650.9 9 27 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 3666.9 9 28 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 3691.9 9 29 66.20 55.90 0.17 20.05 3711.9 9 30 63.00 53.10 0.24 17.05 3729.0 10 1 64.40 57.00 0.44 19.70 3748.7 10 2 59.00 42.10 0.00 9.55 3758.2 10 3 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 3763.4 10 4 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 3770.7 10 5 55.90 37.40 0.00 6.34 3777.0 10 6 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 3785.3 10 7 54.00 44.60 0.16 8.30 3793.6 10 8 55.90 50.00 0.07 11.95 3805.5 10 9 66.20 46.00 0.26 15.10 3820.6 10 10 64.90 42.10 0.00 12.50 3833.1 10 11 62.60 35.60 0.00 9.15 3842.3 10 12 60.10 42.10 0.00 10.10 3852.4 10 13 66.90 41.00 0.00 12.95 3865.3 10 14 64.40 37.00 0.00 10.36 3875.7 10 15 63.00 35.10 0.00 9.23 3884.9 10 16 71.60 37.00 0.00 13.88 3898.8 10 17 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 3911.9 10 18 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 3923.1 10 19 62.60 39.00 0.00 10.05 3933.1 10 20 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 3940.3 10 21 61.00 37.00 0.00 8.70 3949.0 10 22 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 3955.9 10 23 55.40 37.40 0.17 6.10 3962.0 10 24 59.00 46.00 0.01 11.50 3973.5 10 25 60.80 55.00 0.32 16.90 3990.4 10 26 62.60 45.00 0.11 12.80 4003.2 10 27 57.20 35.60 1.35 6.58 4009.8 10 28 57.90 50.00 0.01 12.95 4022.7 10 29 55.40 50.00 0.10 11.70 4034.4 10 30 54.00 46.40 0.18 9.20 4043.6 10 31 57.20 50.00 0.31 12.60 4056.2 11 1 60.80 55.00 1.24 16.90 4073.1 11 2 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 4088.4 11 3 55.40 51.10 0.63 12.25 4100.7 11 4 59.00 51.10 0.03 14.05 4114.7 11 5 55.90 48.20 0.05 11.05 4125.8 11 6 53.60 44.60 0.02 8.10 4133.9 11 7 53.60 30.90 0.00 4.26 4138.1 11 8 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 4140.7 11 9 44.60 33.80 0.29 0.92 4141.6 11 10 52.00 30.90 0.00 3.59 4145.2 11 11 51.80 30.00 0.00 3.42 4148.6 11 12 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 4152.6 11 13 52.00 30.00 0.75 3.50 4156.1 11 14 55.90 46.00 0.12 9.95 4166.1 11 15 54.00 48.00 0.04 10.00 4176.1 11 16 57.20 45.00 0.14 10.10 4186.2 11 17 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 4189.7 11 18 51.80 28.00 0.00 3.25 4193.0 11 19 54.00 28.00 0.00 4.14 4197.1 11 20 54.00 28.00 0.00 4.14 4201.2 11 21 55.90 37.40 0.40 6.34 4207.6 11 22 54.00 46.00 0.36 9.00 4216.6 11 23 48.20 44.10 0.14 5.15 4221.7 11 24 50.00 39.00 0.04 3.87 4225.6 11 25 51.80 37.40 0.09 4.38 4230.0 11 26 61.00 44.60 0.33 11.80 4241.8 11 27 57.90 48.20 0.61 12.05 4253.8 11 28 51.80 44.10 0.09 6.95 4260.8 11 29 51.80 44.10 0.01 6.95 4267.7 11 30 50.00 42.80 0.07 5.40 4273.1 12 1 48.90 33.10 0.43 2.51 4275.6 12 2 46.40 28.00 0.00 1.28 4276.9 12 3 45.00 26.60 0.00 0.81 4277.7 12 4 39.90 26.60 0.00 0.00 4277.7 12 5 45.00 21.90 0.00 0.72 4278.5 12 6 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 4278.5 12 7 43.00 19.00 0.00 0.25 4278.7 12 8 42.80 28.40 0.01 0.27 4279.0 12 9 48.20 30.20 2.08 2.02 4281.0
DD accumulation on 12-9-18: 4281QA 99% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 DDs exceed full year 2017 ok
 47 days behind 2016 ok
 DDs exceed full year 30-yr normals ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KBLI data
 12 10  45.80 41.20  0.06   2.50   4283.5  0.057_0.00%_precip.    
 12 11  50.70 41.60  1.25   5.15   4288.6  1.255_0.03%_precip.    
 12 12  46.30 41.90  0.16   3.10   4291.7  0.16_0.00%_precip.    
 12 13  43.90 39.80  0.44   1.13   4292.9  0.438_0.00%_precip.    
 12 14  37.20 32.00  1.02   0.00   4292.9  1.022_0.00%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBLI 2006-2015
 12 15  44.00 32.40  0.21   0.67   4293.5  *hist_fcst*    
 12 16  44.20 33.80  0.06   0.78   4294.3  *hist_fcst*    
 12 17  45.10 34.90  0.10   1.15   4295.5  *hist_fcst*    
 12 18  43.40 32.70  0.19   0.49   4296.0  *hist_fcst*    
 12 19  44.10 34.00  0.14   0.75   4296.7  *hist_fcst*    
 12 20  42.50 35.10  0.07   0.29   4297.0  *hist_fcst*    
 12 21  45.20 34.50  0.13   1.17   4298.2  *hist_fcst*    
 12 22  44.70 33.60  0.13   0.94   4299.1  *hist_fcst*    
 12 23  43.70 33.70  0.12   0.61   4299.7  *hist_fcst*    
 12 24  45.00 35.40  0.22   1.15   4300.9  *hist_fcst*    
 12 25  45.00 34.90  0.11   1.12   4302.0  *hist_fcst*    
 12 26  44.00 33.10  0.08   0.69   4302.7  *hist_fcst*    
 12 27  43.30 33.00  0.10   0.47   4303.2  *hist_fcst*    
 12 28  44.30 34.10  0.23   0.83   4304.0  *hist_fcst*    
 12 29  43.30 34.00  0.09   0.50   4304.5  *hist_fcst*    
 12 30  42.20 31.50  0.04   0.17   4304.7  *hist_fcst*    
 12 31  41.20 30.40  0.03   0.01   4304.7  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt
DD accumulation on 12-9-18: 4281 QA 99% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 DDs exceed full year 2017 ok
 47 days behind 2016 ok
 DDs exceed full year 30-yr normals ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-17-18 860peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-18 952peak female adult emergence
 5-25-18 1007peak egg laying
 6-11-18 1276peak egg hatch
 7-17-18 2081peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)