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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 35.60 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 41.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 42.80 26.10 0.03 0.25 0.3
1 5 55.90 37.40 0.22 6.34 6.6
1 6 48.20 42.10 0.73 4.15 10.7
1 7 48.00 39.00 0.43 2.91 13.7
1 8 46.40 39.00 0.41 2.15 15.8
1 9 46.40 41.00 0.06 2.70 18.5
1 10 45.00 39.00 0.05 1.51 20.0
1 11 39.20 33.80 0.94 0.00 20.0
1 12 37.90 33.80 0.44 0.00 20.0
1 13 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 21.7
1 14 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 26.3
1 15 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 31.1
1 16 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 40.1
1 17 62.60 42.80 0.11 11.70 51.8
1 18 50.00 44.60 0.01 6.30 58.1
1 19 48.20 44.10 0.02 5.15 63.3
1 20 50.00 42.10 0.02 5.05 68.3
1 21 51.80 42.10 0.17 5.95 74.3
1 22 46.40 41.00 0.05 2.70 77.0
1 23 48.20 37.40 0.30 2.72 79.7
1 24 51.80 42.10 0.18 5.95 85.6
1 25 43.00 37.00 0.13 0.51 86.1
1 26 43.00 37.90 0.18 0.56 86.7
1 27 48.90 37.00 0.10 2.97 89.7
1 28 55.90 39.20 0.38 6.80 96.5
1 29 55.90 44.10 0.51 9.00 105.5
1 30 46.40 41.00 0.13 2.70 108.2
1 31 44.60 39.00 0.13 1.33 109.5
2 1 45.00 39.90 0.39 1.67 111.2
2 2 52.00 39.20 0.52 4.89 116.1
2 3 48.90 46.40 0.68 6.65 122.7
2 4 53.60 48.00 0.55 9.80 132.5
2 5 48.20 44.60 0.02 5.40 137.9
2 6 46.90 44.10 0.14 4.50 142.4
2 7 52.00 46.00 0.04 8.00 150.4
2 8 55.40 43.00 0.01 8.20 158.6
2 9 45.00 33.80 0.01 1.06 159.7
2 10 44.10 28.40 0.00 0.60 160.3
2 11 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 161.2
2 12 43.00 26.10 0.00 0.30 161.5
2 13 42.80 24.10 0.25 0.24 161.7
2 14 42.80 33.10 0.08 0.34 162.0
2 15 43.00 33.10 0.20 0.39 162.4
2 16 46.40 39.00 0.31 2.15 164.6
2 17 48.90 35.10 0.61 2.72 167.3
2 18 36.00 26.60 0.15 0.00 167.3
2 19 36.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 167.3
2 20 37.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 167.3
2 21 34.00 21.00 0.01 0.00 167.3
2 22 39.90 21.90 0.00 0.00 167.3
2 23 35.60 19.00 0.16 0.00 167.3
2 24 43.00 30.20 0.10 0.34 167.6
2 25 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 169.2
2 26 44.10 32.00 0.09 0.68 169.8
2 27 46.40 37.40 0.02 1.91 171.8
2 28 48.90 39.00 0.04 3.34 175.1
3 1 50.00 36.00 0.01 3.32 178.4
3 2 43.00 35.10 0.01 0.44 178.9
3 3 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 180.8
3 4 46.90 28.40 0.02 1.46 182.3
3 5 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 183.2
3 6 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 187.1
3 7 48.90 30.20 0.07 2.29 189.4
3 8 50.00 37.40 0.29 3.54 193.0
3 9 50.00 32.00 0.50 2.86 195.8
3 10 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 200.8
3 11 62.60 28.40 0.00 7.88 208.7
3 12 70.00 32.00 0.00 11.91 220.6
3 13 60.80 45.00 0.58 11.90 232.5
3 14 46.90 39.20 0.19 2.43 234.9
3 15 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 240.1
3 16 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 245.2
3 17 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 248.7
3 18 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 252.8
3 19 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 256.7
3 20 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 260.2
3 21 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 267.6
3 22 51.80 35.60 0.72 4.07 271.7
3 23 46.90 35.60 0.01 1.93 273.6
3 24 46.90 30.90 0.14 1.58 275.2
3 25 48.90 28.40 0.00 2.17 277.4
3 26 46.40 42.10 0.79 3.25 280.6
3 27 55.40 44.60 0.25 9.00 289.6
3 28 51.80 44.10 0.00 6.95 296.6
3 29 48.90 44.10 0.17 5.50 302.1
3 30 55.40 39.00 0.13 6.50 308.6
3 31 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 314.9
4 1 50.00 35.10 0.06 3.20 318.1
4 2 50.00 33.10 0.00 2.97 321.0
4 3 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 324.4
4 4 48.20 39.20 0.47 3.05 327.4
4 5 48.90 42.10 0.70 4.50 331.9
4 6 62.60 46.00 0.13 13.30 345.2
4 7 57.20 48.20 0.13 11.70 356.9
4 8 53.60 48.00 0.22 9.80 366.7
4 9 59.00 46.40 0.51 11.70 378.4
4 10 57.90 44.60 0.09 10.25 388.7
4 11 55.40 43.00 0.26 8.20 396.9
4 12 51.80 42.10 0.01 5.95 402.8
4 13 53.60 44.10 0.26 7.85 410.7
4 14 51.80 44.10 0.18 6.95 417.6
4 15 54.00 42.80 0.15 7.40 425.0
4 16 46.40 42.80 0.30 3.60 428.6
4 17 52.00 44.60 0.03 7.30 435.9
4 18 57.90 39.00 0.11 7.73 443.6
4 19 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 451.1
4 20 57.90 42.10 0.06 9.00 460.1
4 21 55.90 42.10 0.01 8.00 468.1
4 22 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 474.9
4 23 66.20 34.00 0.00 10.52 485.5
4 24 69.80 36.00 0.00 12.73 498.2
4 25 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 511.9
4 26 75.00 42.10 0.00 17.55 529.5
4 27 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 540.6
4 28 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 550.5
4 29 57.20 48.20 0.01 11.70 562.2
4 30 57.90 48.20 0.01 12.05 574.3
5 1 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 586.0
5 2 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 599.1
5 3 71.60 44.10 0.00 16.85 616.0
5 4 59.00 45.00 0.00 11.00 627.0
5 5 66.90 41.00 0.02 12.95 639.9
5 6 73.40 50.00 0.22 20.70 660.6
5 7 66.20 51.80 0.02 18.00 678.6
5 8 72.00 46.40 0.08 18.20 696.8
5 9 66.20 51.10 0.32 17.65 714.5
5 10 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 728.0
5 11 64.90 48.00 0.00 15.45 743.4
5 12 71.60 44.10 0.00 16.85 760.3
5 13 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 781.2
5 14 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 806.4
5 15 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 825.4
5 16 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 843.4
5 17 63.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 860.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 63.00 53.60 0.00 17.30 877.8
5 19 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 899.4
5 20 63.00 52.00 0.00 16.50 915.9
5 21 68.00 46.00 0.00 16.00 931.9
5 22 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 951.7 Peak female adult emergence
5 23 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 971.5
5 24 64.40 55.40 0.01 18.90 990.4
5 25 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1007.5 Peak egg laying
5 26 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 1023.0
5 27 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1041.0
5 28 66.90 52.00 0.00 18.45 1059.4
5 29 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1074.7
5 30 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1089.1
5 31 62.60 46.00 0.00 13.30 1102.4
6 1 63.00 51.80 0.01 16.40 1118.8
6 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 1139.4
6 3 57.90 50.00 0.13 12.95 1152.3
6 4 62.60 45.00 0.00 12.80 1165.1
6 5 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 1179.9
6 6 69.10 46.00 0.00 16.55 1196.4
6 7 64.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 1214.2
6 8 63.00 51.10 0.32 16.05 1230.2
6 9 62.60 48.90 0.23 14.75 1245.0
6 10 62.60 48.20 0.01 14.40 1259.4
6 11 64.40 51.10 0.00 16.75 1276.1 Peak egg hatch
6 12 66.20 42.80 0.02 13.50 1289.6
6 13 64.40 53.10 0.05 17.75 1307.4
6 14 66.20 48.90 0.00 16.55 1323.9
6 15 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1339.6
6 16 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 1364.4
6 17 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1388.5
6 18 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 1415.5
6 19 75.90 60.80 0.00 27.35 1442.8
6 20 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 1471.5
6 21 66.90 57.00 0.01 20.95 1492.5
6 22 64.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 1512.2
6 23 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 1535.5
6 24 72.00 53.60 0.17 21.80 1557.3
6 25 63.00 53.60 0.08 17.30 1574.6
6 26 71.00 53.60 0.21 21.30 1595.9 Px
6 27 71.50 46.20 0.00 17.85 1613.7 Px Pn
6 28 64.60 54.50 0.00 18.55 1632.3 Px Pn
6 29 64.40 57.00 0.06 19.70 1652.0
6 30 61.00 57.20 0.05 18.10 1670.1
7 1 66.90 55.90 0.07 20.40 1690.5
7 2 66.90 52.00 0.03 18.45 1708.9
7 3 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 1727.7
7 4 86.00 48.90 0.00 26.45 1754.2
7 5 78.80 62.10 0.00 29.45 1783.6
7 6 75.90 57.00 0.06 25.45 1809.1
7 7 72.00 55.00 0.41 22.50 1831.6
7 8 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1852.3
7 9 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1872.4
7 10 72.00 57.20 0.00 23.60 1896.0
7 11 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 1919.8
7 12 78.10 57.00 0.00 26.55 1946.3
7 13 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 1972.3
7 14 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 1999.1
7 15 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 2027.3
7 16 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 2055.3
7 17 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 2080.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 18 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2104.9
7 19 66.90 57.20 0.00 21.05 2125.9
7 20 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 2147.5
7 21 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 2168.4
7 22 82.00 48.00 0.00 24.00 2192.4
7 23 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2220.3
7 24 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 2249.3
7 25 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 2280.2
7 26 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 2308.9
7 27 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2336.8
7 28 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 2364.8
7 29 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2397.3
7 30 82.90 62.10 0.00 31.50 2428.8
7 31 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 2452.3
8 1 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2475.7
8 2 68.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 2498.2
8 3 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 2520.8
8 4 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2544.9
8 5 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2572.9
8 6 78.10 59.00 0.00 27.55 2600.4
8 7 87.10 57.20 0.00 31.15 2631.6
8 8 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 2663.9
8 9 88.00 64.00 0.00 35.00 2698.9
8 10 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 2727.6
8 11 69.10 62.60 0.07 24.85 2752.4
8 12 73.00 54.00 0.00 22.50 2774.9
8 13 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 2797.4
8 14 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 2822.5
8 15 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 2851.2
8 16 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 2872.6
8 17 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 2894.1
8 18 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2914.8
8 19 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 2937.0
8 20 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 2965.5
8 21 84.90 54.00 0.00 28.45 2993.9
8 22 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 3019.0
8 23 66.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 3039.9
8 24 69.80 52.00 0.00 19.90 3059.8
8 25 61.00 53.60 0.03 16.30 3076.1
8 26 63.00 53.60 0.14 17.30 3093.4
8 27 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 3115.9
8 28 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 3137.4
8 29 69.10 53.60 0.03 20.35 3157.8
8 30 70.00 55.40 0.00 21.70 3179.5
8 31 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 3199.3
9 1 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 3218.8
9 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 3239.4
9 3 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 3258.4
9 4 73.90 44.10 0.00 18.00 3276.4
9 5 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 3297.9
9 6 78.80 48.00 0.00 22.40 3320.3
9 7 66.90 57.00 0.33 20.95 3341.2
9 8 66.20 53.60 0.03 18.90 3360.1
9 9 64.90 55.00 0.53 18.95 3379.1
9 10 66.90 53.10 0.01 19.00 3398.1
9 11 68.00 53.60 0.13 19.80 3417.9
9 12 64.40 53.10 0.04 17.75 3435.6
9 13 66.00 52.00 0.00 18.00 3453.6
9 14 64.40 51.10 0.25 16.75 3470.4
9 15 64.40 51.10 0.05 16.75 3487.1
9 16 62.60 55.00 0.34 17.80 3504.9
9 17 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 3519.1
9 18 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 3532.6
9 19 64.90 44.10 0.05 13.50 3546.1
9 20 60.80 53.10 0.19 15.95 3562.1
9 21 64.90 53.60 0.12 18.25 3580.3
9 22 64.40 55.40 0.14 18.90 3599.2
9 23 60.80 46.00 0.07 12.40 3611.6
9 24 64.90 42.80 0.00 12.85 3624.5
9 25 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 3636.4
9 26 64.90 46.00 0.00 14.45 3650.9
9 27 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 3666.9
9 28 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 3691.9
9 29 66.20 55.90 0.17 20.05 3711.9
9 30 63.00 53.10 0.24 17.05 3729.0
10 1 64.40 57.00 0.44 19.70 3748.7
10 2 59.00 42.10 0.00 9.55 3758.2
10 3 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 3763.4
10 4 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 3770.7
10 5 55.90 37.40 0.00 6.34 3777.0
10 6 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 3785.3
10 7 54.00 44.60 0.16 8.30 3793.6
10 8 55.90 50.00 0.07 11.95 3805.5
10 9 66.20 46.00 0.26 15.10 3820.6
10 10 64.90 42.10 0.00 12.50 3833.1
10 11 62.60 35.60 0.00 9.15 3842.3
10 12 60.10 42.10 0.00 10.10 3852.4
10 13 66.90 41.00 0.00 12.95 3865.3
10 14 64.40 37.00 0.00 10.36 3875.7
10 15 63.00 35.10 0.00 9.23 3884.9
10 16 71.60 37.00 0.00 13.88 3898.8
10 17 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 3911.9
10 18 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 3923.1
10 19 62.60 39.00 0.00 10.05 3933.1
10 20 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 3940.3
10 21 61.00 37.00 0.00 8.70 3949.0
10 22 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 3955.9
10 23 55.40 37.40 0.17 6.10 3962.0
10 24 59.00 46.00 0.01 11.50 3973.5
10 25 60.80 55.00 0.32 16.90 3990.4
10 26 62.60 45.00 0.11 12.80 4003.2
10 27 57.20 35.60 1.35 6.58 4009.8
10 28 57.90 50.00 0.01 12.95 4022.7
10 29 55.40 50.00 0.10 11.70 4034.4
10 30 54.00 46.40 0.18 9.20 4043.6
10 31 57.20 50.00 0.31 12.60 4056.2
11 1 60.80 55.00 1.24 16.90 4073.1
11 2 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 4088.4
11 3 55.40 51.10 0.63 12.25 4100.7
11 4 59.00 51.10 0.03 14.05 4114.7
11 5 55.90 48.20 0.05 11.05 4125.8
11 6 53.60 44.60 0.02 8.10 4133.9
11 7 53.60 30.90 0.00 4.26 4138.1
11 8 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 4140.7
11 9 44.60 33.80 0.29 0.92 4141.6
11 10 52.00 30.90 0.00 3.59 4145.2
11 11 51.80 30.00 0.00 3.42 4148.6
11 12 53.60 28.40 0.00 4.01 4152.6
11 13 52.00 30.00 0.75 3.50 4156.1
11 14 55.90 46.00 0.12 9.95 4166.1
11 15 54.00 48.00 0.04 10.00 4176.1
11 16 57.20 45.00 0.14 10.10 4186.2
11 17 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 4189.7
11 18 51.80 28.00 0.00 3.25 4193.0
11 19 54.00 28.00 0.00 4.14 4197.1
11 20 54.00 28.00 0.00 4.14 4201.2
11 21 55.90 37.40 0.40 6.34 4207.6
11 22 54.00 46.00 0.36 9.00 4216.6
11 23 48.20 44.10 0.14 5.15 4221.7
11 24 50.00 39.00 0.04 3.87 4225.6
11 25 51.80 37.40 0.09 4.38 4230.0
11 26 61.00 44.60 0.33 11.80 4241.8
11 27 57.90 48.20 0.61 12.05 4253.8
11 28 51.80 44.10 0.09 6.95 4260.8
11 29 51.80 44.10 0.01 6.95 4267.7
11 30 50.00 42.80 0.07 5.40 4273.1
12 1 48.90 33.10 0.43 2.51 4275.6
12 2 46.40 28.00 0.00 1.28 4276.9
12 3 45.00 26.60 0.00 0.81 4277.7
12 4 39.90 26.60 0.00 0.00 4277.7
12 5 45.00 21.90 0.00 0.72 4278.5
12 6 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 4278.5
12 7 43.00 19.00 0.00 0.25 4278.7
12 8 42.80 28.40 0.01 0.27 4279.0
12 9 48.90 30.00 0.30 2.27 4281.2
12 10 48.20 42.80 0.07 4.50 4285.7
12 11 50.00 44.10 0.28 6.05 4291.8
12 12 48.20 37.00 0.07 2.66 4294.5
12 13 57.00 44.60 0.12 9.80 4304.3
12 14 63.00 44.10 0.14 12.55 4316.8
12 15 48.20 41.00 0.01 3.60 4320.4
12 16 59.00 42.10 0.44 9.55 4330.0
12 17 53.60 48.00 0.09 9.80 4339.8
12 18 51.80 46.40 0.31 8.10 4347.9
12 19 48.90 44.10 0.02 5.50 4353.4
12 20 57.20 44.60 0.49 9.90 4363.3
12 21 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 4364.0
12 22 48.90 32.00 0.08 2.42 4366.5
12 23 48.20 39.20 0.06 3.05 4369.5
12 24 46.90 32.00 0.02 1.65 4371.2
12 25 39.90 28.00 0.00 0.00 4371.2
12 26 39.20 35.10 0.18 0.00 4371.2
12 27 42.80 34.00 0.02 0.35 4371.5
12 28 39.20 35.60 1.10 0.00 4371.5
12 29 52.00 42.10 0.50 6.05 4377.6
12 30 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 4379.1
12 31 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 4379.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-17-18 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-22-18 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-25-18 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
6-11-18 | 1276 | Peak egg hatch |
7-17-18 | 2081 | Peak in density large larvae |