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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 37.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 37.00 30.00 0.04 0.00 0.0
1 5 37.00 33.10 0.08 0.00 0.0
1 6 46.00 28.90 0.00 1.18 1.2
1 7 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 8 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 2.7
1 9 46.00 26.10 0.00 1.09 3.8
1 10 44.10 28.00 0.00 0.59 4.4
1 11 46.90 24.10 0.10 1.31 5.7
1 12 55.00 37.00 0.23 5.82 11.5
1 13 55.00 42.10 0.01 7.55 19.1
1 14 48.00 30.90 0.00 1.99 21.1
1 15 42.10 26.10 0.14 0.12 21.2
1 16 53.10 39.00 0.21 5.37 26.6
1 17 53.10 42.10 0.20 6.60 33.2
1 18 52.00 44.10 0.04 7.05 40.2
1 19 48.90 41.00 0.02 3.95 44.2
1 20 48.90 41.00 0.28 3.95 48.1
1 21 60.10 42.10 0.10 10.10 58.2
1 22 59.00 41.00 0.44 9.00 67.2
1 23 45.00 39.00 0.07 1.51 68.7
1 24 48.00 36.00 0.07 2.44 71.2
1 25 48.00 33.10 0.00 2.15 73.3
1 26 54.00 43.00 0.31 7.50 80.8
1 27 61.00 45.00 0.07 12.00 92.8
1 28 59.00 44.10 0.16 10.55 103.4
1 29 46.90 42.10 0.41 3.50 106.9
1 30 45.00 36.00 0.19 1.19 108.1
1 31 43.00 39.90 0.12 0.74 108.8
2 1 43.00 37.00 0.15 0.51 109.3
2 2 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 110.4
2 3 46.90 37.90 0.13 2.20 112.6
2 4 48.90 44.10 0.08 5.50 118.1
2 5 60.10 41.00 0.22 9.55 127.7
2 6 48.90 33.10 0.00 2.51 130.2
2 7 48.00 32.00 0.01 2.07 132.3
2 8 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 139.8
2 9 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 147.5
2 10 57.00 39.00 0.10 7.29 154.8
2 11 54.00 36.00 0.43 5.15 159.9
2 12 55.90 46.00 0.93 9.95 169.9
2 13 50.00 44.10 0.04 6.05 175.9
2 14 53.10 45.00 0.74 8.05 184.0
2 15 53.10 46.00 1.31 8.55 192.5
2 16 54.00 45.00 0.03 8.50 201.0
2 17 53.10 45.00 0.87 8.05 209.1
2 18 52.00 46.00 0.09 8.00 217.1
2 19 51.10 46.00 0.08 7.55 224.6
2 20 48.90 37.00 0.04 2.97 227.6
2 21 48.00 33.10 0.04 2.15 229.7
2 22 50.00 32.00 0.04 2.86 232.6
2 23 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 237.4
2 24 59.00 37.90 0.00 7.96 245.3
2 25 60.10 36.00 0.00 8.04 253.4
2 26 57.00 35.10 0.12 6.39 259.8
2 27 53.10 46.00 0.04 8.55 268.3
2 28 54.00 45.00 0.07 8.50 276.8
2 29 52.00 42.10 0.01 6.05 282.9
3 1 57.90 43.00 0.56 9.45 292.3
3 2 57.00 45.00 0.09 10.00 302.3
3 3 55.90 48.00 0.04 10.95 313.3
3 4 57.90 44.10 0.15 10.00 323.3
3 5 64.00 46.90 0.07 14.45 337.7
3 6 59.00 44.10 0.09 10.55 348.3
3 7 48.00 42.10 0.43 4.05 352.3
3 8 51.10 39.90 0.00 4.65 357.0
3 9 57.00 42.10 0.51 8.55 365.5
3 10 57.90 46.00 0.05 10.95 376.5
3 11 53.10 39.00 0.24 5.37 381.8
3 12 52.00 45.00 0.05 7.50 389.3
3 13 50.00 43.00 0.19 5.50 394.8
3 14 48.00 42.10 0.05 4.05 398.9
3 15 50.00 41.00 0.10 4.50 403.4
3 16 48.90 36.00 0.03 2.83 406.2
3 17 55.90 34.00 0.00 5.69 411.9
3 18 60.10 36.00 0.00 8.04 419.9
3 19 61.00 37.90 0.00 8.94 428.9
3 20 55.90 46.90 0.08 10.40 439.3
3 21 57.90 46.90 0.25 11.40 450.7
3 22 55.90 46.00 0.01 9.95 460.6
3 23 51.80 46.00 0.20 7.90 468.5
3 24 50.00 45.00 0.03 6.50 475.0
3 25 54.00 37.90 0.00 5.54 480.6
3 26 57.90 37.90 0.44 7.43 488.0
3 27 50.00 43.00 0.21 5.50 493.5
3 28 55.90 37.90 0.04 6.46 499.9
3 29 63.00 36.00 0.00 9.43 509.4
3 30 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 519.5
3 31 68.00 39.90 0.00 13.04 532.6
4 1 60.10 46.90 0.00 12.50 545.1
4 2 55.90 46.90 0.01 10.40 555.5
4 3 68.00 41.00 0.84 13.50 569.0
4 4 57.00 46.00 0.04 10.50 579.5
4 5 54.00 46.00 0.12 9.00 588.5
4 6 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 604.9
4 7 71.10 48.90 0.00 19.00 623.9
4 8 64.90 44.10 0.00 13.50 637.4
4 9 61.00 43.00 0.00 11.00 648.4
4 10 59.00 44.10 0.00 10.55 659.0
4 11 57.00 48.90 0.00 11.95 670.9
4 12 55.90 44.10 1.39 9.00 679.9
4 13 55.90 44.10 0.05 9.00 688.9
4 14 50.00 44.10 0.01 6.05 695.0
4 15 55.90 43.00 0.00 8.45 703.4
4 16 64.00 39.90 0.00 11.05 714.5
4 17 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 729.0
4 18 82.90 43.00 0.00 21.95 750.9
4 19 73.90 46.90 0.00 19.40 770.3
4 20 78.10 46.00 0.00 21.05 791.4
4 21 66.00 54.00 0.02 19.00 810.4
4 22 63.00 50.00 0.01 15.50 825.9
4 23 61.00 51.10 0.64 15.05 840.9
4 24 55.00 46.90 0.15 9.95 850.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 25 57.90 44.10 0.03 10.00 860.9
4 26 59.00 44.10 0.00 10.55 871.4
4 27 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 883.4
4 28 61.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 897.9
4 29 61.00 45.00 0.05 12.00 909.9
4 30 64.90 42.10 0.00 12.50 922.4
5 1 72.00 39.90 0.00 15.04 937.5
5 2 86.00 45.00 0.00 24.50 962.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 3 69.10 55.90 0.00 21.50 983.5
5 4 61.00 50.00 0.10 14.50 998.0
5 5 67.00 44.00 0.00 14.50 1012.5 Peak egg laying
5 6 75.00 42.00 0.00 17.50 1030.0
5 7 73.90 44.10 0.00 18.00 1048.0
5 8 62.10 46.90 0.02 13.50 1061.5
5 9 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 1073.4
5 10 71.10 39.90 0.00 14.59 1088.0
5 11 73.00 48.90 0.00 19.95 1108.0
5 12 71.10 44.10 0.00 16.60 1124.6
5 13 80.10 46.90 0.00 22.50 1147.1
5 14 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 1162.6
5 15 59.00 54.00 0.00 15.50 1178.1
5 16 62.10 54.00 0.00 17.05 1195.1
5 17 69.10 52.00 0.00 19.55 1214.7
5 18 62.10 50.00 0.19 15.05 1229.7
5 19 57.90 45.00 0.09 10.45 1240.2
5 20 64.90 46.00 0.01 14.45 1254.6
5 21 60.10 50.00 0.01 14.05 1268.7
5 22 64.90 54.00 0.00 18.45 1287.1 Peak egg hatch
5 23 61.00 53.10 0.01 16.05 1303.2
5 24 64.90 54.00 0.00 18.45 1321.6
5 25 66.00 52.00 0.00 18.00 1339.6
5 26 59.00 52.00 0.08 14.50 1354.1
5 27 60.10 48.90 0.10 13.50 1367.6
5 28 59.00 48.90 0.45 12.95 1380.6
5 29 64.00 50.00 0.01 16.00 1396.6
5 30 70.00 43.00 0.00 15.50 1412.1
5 31 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 1432.0
6 1 70.00 57.00 0.08 22.50 1454.5
6 2 64.90 57.00 0.03 19.95 1474.5
6 3 77.00 55.90 0.00 25.45 1499.9
6 4 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1526.9
6 5 84.90 55.90 0.00 29.40 1556.3
6 6 80.10 59.00 0.00 28.55 1584.9
6 7 73.00 53.10 0.00 22.05 1606.9
6 8 61.00 55.90 0.04 17.45 1624.4
6 9 64.00 53.10 0.00 17.55 1641.9
6 10 64.00 52.00 0.10 17.00 1658.9
6 11 60.10 48.00 0.00 13.05 1672.0
6 12 64.90 48.90 0.00 15.90 1687.9
6 13 61.00 50.00 0.05 14.50 1702.4
6 14 60.10 48.90 0.00 13.50 1715.9
6 15 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 1729.4
6 16 64.90 45.00 0.00 13.95 1743.3
6 17 71.10 42.10 0.02 15.60 1758.9
6 18 57.90 53.10 0.39 14.50 1773.4
6 19 69.10 50.00 0.00 18.55 1792.0
6 20 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1810.0
6 21 64.00 55.90 0.00 18.95 1828.9
6 22 71.10 51.10 0.10 20.10 1849.0
6 23 63.00 54.00 0.11 17.50 1866.5
6 24 64.90 52.00 0.00 17.45 1884.0
6 25 70.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 1904.5
6 26 77.00 48.90 0.00 21.95 1926.5
6 27 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1951.5
6 28 69.10 55.90 0.00 21.50 1973.0
6 29 66.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 1993.9
6 30 66.00 55.00 0.00 19.50 2013.4
7 1 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2035.0
7 2 70.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 2057.5
7 3 69.80 57.00 0.19 22.40 2079.9 Peak in density large larvae
7 4 66.20 55.00 0.01 19.60 2099.5
7 5 63.00 51.80 0.19 16.40 2115.9
7 6 72.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 2134.9
7 7 66.20 55.00 0.13 19.60 2154.5
7 8 73.40 60.10 0.20 25.75 2180.3
7 9 70.00 57.00 1.42 22.50 2202.8
7 10 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 2225.5
7 11 69.80 57.00 0.04 22.40 2247.9
7 12 72.00 55.40 0.20 22.70 2270.6
7 13 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 2293.3
7 14 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 2315.5
7 15 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 2336.1
7 16 71.60 55.90 0.00 22.75 2358.8
7 17 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2383.1
7 18 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2405.6
7 19 75.00 57.90 0.00 25.45 2431.1
7 20 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 2457.1
7 21 80.60 53.10 0.04 25.85 2482.9
7 22 71.60 60.80 0.00 25.20 2508.1
7 23 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 2531.5
7 24 78.10 51.80 0.00 23.95 2555.5
7 25 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2584.3
7 26 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 2607.8
7 27 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 2634.8
7 28 80.10 59.00 0.00 28.55 2663.3
7 29 79.00 57.90 0.00 27.45 2690.8
7 30 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2716.2
7 31 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 2739.4
8 1 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 2760.0
8 2 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2781.6
8 3 73.00 54.00 0.02 22.50 2804.1
8 4 78.10 51.10 0.00 23.60 2827.7
8 5 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 2849.2
8 6 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 2870.6
8 7 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 2890.2
8 8 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 2912.0
8 9 64.90 59.00 0.00 20.95 2932.9
8 10 75.00 57.00 0.00 25.00 2957.9
8 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2982.2
8 12 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 3011.2
8 13 84.20 60.10 0.00 31.15 3042.3
8 14 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 3069.3
8 15 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 3094.4
8 16 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 3119.9
8 17 75.90 54.00 0.00 23.95 3143.8
8 18 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 3173.6
8 19 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 3207.5
8 20 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 3234.7
8 21 66.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 3255.6
8 22 71.60 52.00 0.00 20.80 3276.4
8 23 73.90 46.00 0.00 18.95 3295.4
8 24 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 3321.4
8 25 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 3349.6
8 26 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 3379.3
8 27 69.80 60.10 0.00 23.95 3403.3
8 28 64.90 57.20 0.04 20.05 3423.3
8 29 75.00 57.00 0.00 25.00 3448.3
8 30 66.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 3469.3
8 31 64.90 57.00 0.23 19.95 3489.2
9 1 66.90 55.40 0.01 20.15 3509.4
9 2 66.90 55.00 0.07 19.95 3529.3
9 3 66.90 48.90 0.00 16.90 3546.2
9 4 68.00 44.10 0.00 15.05 3561.3
9 5 60.80 53.60 0.03 16.20 3577.5
9 6 66.00 53.60 0.01 18.80 3596.3
9 7 64.00 55.40 0.14 18.70 3615.0
9 8 69.80 51.10 0.10 19.45 3634.4
9 9 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 3651.5
9 10 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 3673.0
9 11 69.80 46.90 0.00 17.35 3690.3
9 12 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 3710.8
9 13 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 3726.1
9 14 73.40 44.10 0.00 17.75 3743.9
9 15 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 3762.8
9 16 66.20 50.00 0.12 17.10 3779.9
9 17 64.40 55.00 0.65 18.70 3798.6
9 18 66.90 55.00 0.02 19.95 3818.5
9 19 64.40 53.10 0.25 17.75 3836.3
9 20 64.90 46.90 0.00 14.90 3851.2
9 21 69.80 42.10 0.00 14.95 3866.1
9 22 64.90 42.80 0.00 12.85 3879.0
9 23 61.00 53.10 0.22 16.05 3895.0
9 24 64.90 50.00 0.03 16.45 3911.5
9 25 73.40 52.00 0.00 21.70 3933.2
9 26 72.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 3952.2
9 27 64.40 48.90 0.00 15.65 3967.8
9 28 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 3981.0
9 29 61.00 43.00 0.00 11.00 3992.0
9 30 60.80 39.00 0.00 9.16 4001.1
10 1 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 4014.6
10 2 64.40 44.10 0.00 13.25 4027.9
10 3 63.00 44.10 0.16 12.55 4040.4
10 4 61.00 51.10 0.33 15.05 4055.5
10 5 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 4072.9
10 6 60.80 53.10 0.19 15.95 4088.9
10 7 63.00 51.80 0.15 16.40 4105.3
10 8 57.90 48.20 1.35 12.05 4117.3
10 9 57.90 42.10 0.00 9.00 4126.3
10 10 57.90 39.00 0.00 7.73 4134.0
10 11 61.00 36.00 0.00 8.47 4142.5
10 12 63.00 32.00 0.31 8.62 4151.1
10 13 61.00 48.20 1.27 13.60 4164.7
10 14 59.00 51.80 0.33 14.40 4179.1
10 15 61.00 48.20 0.24 13.60 4192.7
10 16 60.80 51.10 0.17 14.95 4207.7
10 17 57.20 48.20 0.68 11.70 4219.4
10 18 54.00 50.00 0.37 11.00 4230.4
10 19 59.00 42.80 0.87 9.90 4240.3
10 20 59.00 48.20 0.34 12.60 4252.9
10 21 60.80 42.80 0.16 10.80 4263.7
10 22 57.00 37.90 0.01 6.99 4270.7
10 23 61.00 46.40 0.05 12.70 4283.4
10 24 64.40 53.60 0.03 18.00 4301.4
10 25 64.40 45.00 0.00 13.70 4315.1
10 26 61.00 46.40 0.29 12.70 4327.8
10 27 59.00 55.00 0.04 16.00 4343.8
10 28 64.40 44.10 0.00 13.25 4357.0
10 29 52.00 44.10 0.23 7.05 4364.1
10 30 57.20 37.00 0.36 6.87 4370.9
10 31 54.00 48.00 0.37 10.00 4380.9
11 1 55.90 46.00 0.40 9.95 4390.9
11 2 62.10 51.10 0.60 15.60 4406.5
11 3 64.40 44.10 0.05 13.25 4419.7
11 4 69.80 37.00 0.21 13.00 4432.7
11 5 68.00 51.10 1.87 18.55 4451.3
11 6 57.90 44.60 0.02 10.25 4461.5
11 7 57.20 51.80 0.03 13.50 4475.0
11 8 73.40 48.00 0.09 19.70 4494.7
11 9 66.20 51.10 0.34 17.65 4512.4
11 10 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 4524.3
11 11 57.90 51.10 0.14 13.50 4537.8
11 12 61.00 46.90 0.16 12.95 4550.7
11 13 55.40 46.00 0.37 9.70 4560.4
11 14 55.40 46.00 0.05 9.70 4570.1
11 15 52.00 44.60 0.23 7.30 4577.4
11 16 48.90 41.00 0.11 3.95 4581.4
11 17 50.00 37.90 0.26 3.63 4585.0
11 18 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 4587.5
11 19 51.80 44.60 0.01 7.20 4594.7
11 20 57.90 51.10 0.01 13.50 4608.2
11 21 52.00 44.60 0.00 7.30 4615.5
11 22 54.00 44.10 0.73 8.05 4623.6
11 23 50.00 44.10 0.01 6.05 4629.6
11 24 51.80 44.60 0.27 7.20 4636.8
11 25 51.80 44.10 0.36 6.95 4643.8
11 26 55.40 42.80 1.53 8.10 4651.9
11 27 46.90 41.00 0.05 2.95 4654.8
11 28 48.90 39.90 0.01 3.57 4658.4
11 29 48.90 41.00 0.02 3.95 4662.3
11 30 50.00 42.10 0.17 5.05 4667.4
12 1 46.40 33.80 0.03 1.58 4668.9
12 2 48.90 44.10 0.27 5.50 4674.4
12 3 48.20 42.10 0.55 4.15 4678.6
12 4 44.60 32.00 0.12 0.84 4679.4
12 5 39.90 33.10 0.03 0.00 4679.4
12 6 36.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 4679.4
12 7 32.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 4679.4
12 8 32.00 24.10 0.01 0.00 4679.4
12 9 32.00 26.00 0.03 0.00 4679.4
12 10 41.00 28.40 1.42 0.00 4679.4
12 11 43.00 32.00 0.33 0.37 4679.8
12 12 33.80 28.00 0.30 0.00 4679.8
12 13 30.20 21.90 0.00 0.00 4679.8
12 14 27.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 4679.8
12 15 28.40 19.00 0.00 0.00 4679.8
12 16 27.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 4679.8
12 17 28.40 14.00 0.00 0.00 4679.8
12 18 32.00 24.80 0.03 0.00 4679.8
12 19 44.60 37.00 0.38 1.11 4680.9
12 20 48.90 37.00 0.04 2.97 4683.9
12 21 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 4684.9
12 22 46.90 32.00 0.23 1.65 4686.5
12 23 37.90 32.00 0.72 0.00 4686.5
12 24 33.80 28.00 0.00 0.00 4686.5
12 25 35.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 4686.5
12 26 42.80 26.10 0.05 0.25 4686.8
12 27 44.60 39.20 0.12 1.36 4688.1
12 28 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 4689.1
12 29 46.90 33.10 0.27 1.72 4690.9
12 30 42.80 33.80 0.22 0.35 4691.2
12 31 37.94 33.08 0.72 0.00 4691.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-24-16 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-2-16 | 962 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-5-16 | 1012 | Peak egg laying |
5-22-16 | 1287 | Peak egg hatch |
7-3-16 | 2080 | Peak in density large larvae |